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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed, a federal Labor and the

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Speaker 1: Liberal Party launched their election campaigns, promising tax cuts and

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Speaker 1: big benefits for first home buyers. Auction clearance rates tumble

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Speaker 1: as the financial market chaos hits the home market and

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Speaker 1: Prada buys VERSACEI as luxury fashion houses struggle. Plus the

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Speaker 1: local markets set to open higher today. And why arguably

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Speaker 1: the world's greatest footballer is suing his club for one

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Speaker 1: hundred and ten million dollars. Welcome to Fear and Greed,

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Speaker 1: daily business news for people who make their own decisions.

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Speaker 1: It is Monday, the fourteenth of April twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and good morning Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 1: Another week, another week of Fear and Greed daily newsletters,

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Speaker 1: very very exciting.

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Speaker 2: Launched it last week. What newsletter number six of the

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Speaker 2: daily variety. That's right today, all the main stories of

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Speaker 2: the day. I'm hoping you know you read it. You

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Speaker 2: get a taste for what you should be listening to

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Speaker 2: from the podcast.

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Speaker 1: Maybe absolutely, And you can head along to Fearandgreed dot

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Speaker 1: com dot au and subscribe. It's entirely free and I

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Speaker 1: guarantee you if you read this, you will arrive at

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Speaker 1: your desk feeling more prepared for the day. I think

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Speaker 1: that's exactly right, and it'll take you about three minutes

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Speaker 1: and you were done, so head along to the website.

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Speaker 1: I'll put a link in the show notes as well.

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Speaker 1: On with the main story this morning, though, Shawn. The

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Speaker 1: federal Labor and Liberal parties held their election campaign launches yesterday,

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Speaker 1: with big promises to make purchasing a first home easier

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Speaker 1: for buyers and some surprising pledges to cut taxes from

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Speaker 1: both sides.

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Speaker 2: Less than three weeks to go. Now, Michael, the game

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Speaker 2: is well and truly on. At the Labor launch in Perth,

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Speaker 2: Anthony Albernezy today, re elected government will create a new

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Speaker 2: standard tax deduction of one thousand dollars a year on

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Speaker 2: work related expenses. Add in the pledge to reduce the

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Speaker 2: bottom tax bracket from sixteen to fourteen percent from July

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Speaker 2: twenty two, twenty seven, and the Prime Minister claims Labor

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Speaker 2: would make the average full time income earner three thousand,

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Speaker 2: one hundred and ten dollars better off each year. The

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Speaker 2: government's also promising that if re elected, Labor will allow

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Speaker 2: first home buyers to get into the market with only

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Speaker 2: a five percent deposit and they lend us mortgage insurance

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Speaker 2: needed at the moment you need about twenty percent, so

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Speaker 2: million dollars. What's that two hundred thousand dollars deposit five percent,

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Speaker 2: that's just fifty thousand dollars. At the Coalition's campaign launch

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Speaker 2: in Western Sydney, Opposition leader Peter Dunton pledged that under

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Speaker 2: a Coalition government, about ten million workers would receive a

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Speaker 2: one off income tax cut of up to twelve hundred

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Speaker 2: dollars at the end of next financial year. It kicks

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Speaker 2: in for everyone earning up to one hundred and forty

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Speaker 2: four thousand dollars. That's about eighty five percent of the workforce.

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Speaker 2: On housing, Peter Dutton pledge to allow all first home

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Speaker 2: buyers to deduct mortgage interest payments on newly bill times.

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Speaker 1: It's always struck me as a bit strange, right that

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Speaker 1: parties hold their life launches about what two and a

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Speaker 1: half weeks into the campaign. What have you been doing

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Speaker 1: up till now? Just twiddling your thumbs. It feels like

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Speaker 1: the launch should be at the start of the campaign

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Speaker 1: and then we know what's on the table. And then

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Speaker 1: they can just get out there and sell the message

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Speaker 1: to everybody.

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Speaker 2: Right. Yeah, So there's reasons for it, and it's around

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Speaker 2: funding and compliance and what you have to just off

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Speaker 2: the top of my head, Michael, I can't quite remember

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Speaker 2: what it is, but it is definitely around finance. Why

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Speaker 2: you are trying to have your launch closer to the pole.

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Speaker 1: As close as you possibly can get it. But at

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Speaker 1: least now we know tax and housing have taken center

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Speaker 1: stage in the election campaign that were covered in the

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Speaker 1: official launches yesterday, and we can all decide, I suppose

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Speaker 1: what we get or what we don't get from the promises?

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Speaker 1: Who is in front at the moment.

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Speaker 2: Well, let's think about it this both parties yesterday promised

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Speaker 2: hip pocket issues. Well, at least they focus on hip

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Speaker 2: pocket issues. It'll be interesting to see what the polls

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Speaker 2: say in a few days when all this sort of

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Speaker 2: news filters through. Was quite remarkable yesterday how similar the

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Speaker 2: two were to each other, you know, both on first

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Speaker 2: home buyers and on tax cuts. At this point, polling

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Speaker 2: definitely shows the Coalition losing some ground on labor ahead

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Speaker 2: of the election on May three. The latest YUGO of polling,

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Speaker 2: for example, released to AAP reveals Labor has gained ground

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Speaker 2: to be ahead fifty two point five percent to forty

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Speaker 2: seven point five percent of the coalition on a two

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Speaker 2: party preferred vote. It doesn't seem like much, but it's

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Speaker 2: the best result for Labor in months. It's actually slightly

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Speaker 2: higher than what it got in the twenty twenty two election,

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Speaker 2: So we're talking about fifty two point five. The poll

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Speaker 2: says they got fifty two point one percent on a

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Speaker 2: two party preferred which gave them a majority government. The

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Speaker 2: coalition's primary vote is now down to thirty three and

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Speaker 2: a half percent, which is actually lower than the last election. Apparently,

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Speaker 2: Peter Dunton's work from home policy has not been well

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Speaker 2: received according to YouGov well and truly in the middle

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Speaker 2: of the election campaign now though Mike, I must say

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Speaker 2: school holidays at Easter, Donald Trump control. I mean, they're

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Speaker 2: doing a pretty good job to put people's minds elsewhere.

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Speaker 2: At this point. It's Anthony Albanese's election to lose. Father.

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Speaker 1: Be it from me to empathize with the politicians, but

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Speaker 1: it must be really hard to campaign during this period,

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Speaker 1: like no one, no one is paying attention, right.

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Speaker 2: Not really? Yeah, and you've got Donald Trump crowding out

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Speaker 2: the news cycle. It was incredible.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, you could normally rely on at least a few

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Speaker 1: front pages during that but every single day it is Trump, Trump,

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Speaker 1: Trump anyway, Sean. Moving away from politics, the preliminary auction

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Speaker 1: clearance rate. It fell to the lowest level this year

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Speaker 1: on the biggest week of auctions, which kind of almost

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Speaker 1: mirrors what's happening in equity and bond markets.

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Speaker 2: The preliminary clearance rate across the capital City's dive to

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Speaker 2: just under sixty five percent now was seventy one percent

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Speaker 2: just a week ago. According to core Logic, there were

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Speaker 2: more than thirty one hundred scheduled auctions. The biggest week

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Speaker 2: of the year always is the week before Eastern Big week.

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Speaker 2: In short, uncertainty doesn't only hurt equities and bonds, it

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Speaker 2: hurts the housing market as well. Melbourne came in at

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Speaker 2: sixty seven percent, Sydney less than sixty six percent, Adelaide,

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Speaker 2: Brisbane and Canberra or lower the market. The housing market

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Speaker 2: is really feeling the financial market pain.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, and what can we expect from the sheer market

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Speaker 1: this morning. Last week was a heck of a week.

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Speaker 1: It was a doozy Sean, do we expect more of

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Speaker 1: the same, Perhaps things will settle a little bit, I say, hopefully.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a good question. You do hope that wasn't

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Speaker 2: the same as last week. Now. Over the weekend, Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump walked back punitive tariffs on electronics, smartphones, computer chips,

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Speaker 2: those sorts of things, meaning Chinese supplies into the US

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Speaker 2: won't be hit with one hundred and forty five percent

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Speaker 2: imposts Apple, particularly Apple, but other manufacturers forecasts at prices

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Speaker 2: would surge if the costs of inputs were hit by tariffs. Now,

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Speaker 2: Apple's share prices down twenty three percent since its December peak.

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Speaker 2: There are a bunch of reports at the moment saying

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Speaker 2: that Apple was in crisis on the basis of these

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Speaker 2: because they actually can't create an iPhone without those inputs

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Speaker 2: from China. The White House indicated the exemptions were made

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Speaker 2: to ensure companies had more time to move production to

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Speaker 2: the US, but given that takes years billions of dollars,

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Speaker 2: it's more likely that the US President wasn't prepared for

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Speaker 2: the backlash from much more expensive electronics and backed down.

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Speaker 2: It's kind of interesting four or five days so he

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Speaker 2: backed down over the week, and non electronics, of course,

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Speaker 2: introduced a nine to day pause on tariffs in the

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Speaker 2: middle of last week, which markets liked, meaning Wall Street

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Speaker 2: ended last week actually up six percent. The local market

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Speaker 2: was flat last week. Futures training suggests a small gain

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Speaker 2: locally on opening tech stocks should jump, you would think,

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Speaker 2: But I have just spoken around your question totally. You

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Speaker 2: said more of the same things will settle a bit.

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Speaker 2: I haven't answered that whatsoever. Don't know that's the answer, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It feels like there's more uncertainty a headshean maybe maybe

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Speaker 1: speaking of markets, though, You've got a great interview coming

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Speaker 1: up after the show today with June Bailoub from ten Cap.

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Speaker 2: We do yes, and I talked to juinbay all about

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Speaker 2: the current well the co market client. We start talking

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Speaker 2: about China and how to whether it's worth investing in

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Speaker 2: companies with exposure to China. But then we quickly go

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Speaker 2: on to the companies that she thinks are pretty good

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Speaker 2: opportunities in the market right now.

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Speaker 1: And she just knows this space so well, and she

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Speaker 1: goes through a whole stack of companies and just if

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Speaker 1: you're an investor, or, if you're just interested, it's worth

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Speaker 1: just sitting there and just writing it down and just

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Speaker 1: going and doing your own research. Just it's a great

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Speaker 1: little glimpse into the mind of someone who does this

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Speaker 1: every day for a living and does it very prominently. Yes, indeed,

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Speaker 1: that's coming up after the show, Sean. We've got plenty

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Speaker 1: still to get through. We'll be back in a moment

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Speaker 1: with the rest of the day's business news.

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Speaker 2: Shaw On.

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Speaker 1: The Reserve Bank and Federal Treasury are hopeful that spending

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Speaker 1: stimulus in China will protect Australia from the escalating trade

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Speaker 1: war between the US and China.

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Speaker 2: So Donald Trump has pushed up tariffs on Chinese inputs

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Speaker 2: to one hundred and forty five percent except for the electronics.

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Speaker 2: That will pretty much slow trade between the two biggest

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Speaker 2: economies to a crawl. That's what a market economists think now.

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Speaker 2: Australia sells about forty percent of x of its exports

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Speaker 2: to China, from iron and gas to tourism, education down

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Speaker 2: to China. Bad news for Australia, That's fair enough. The

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Speaker 2: fin Review that is reporting that the Reserve Bank Treasury

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Speaker 2: are cautiously confident that Beijing will unleash inn infrastructure spending

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Speaker 2: package and monetary stimulus to help offset the US trade war.

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Speaker 2: In fact, Michelle Bullock, the Reserve Bank governor, hinted at

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Speaker 2: it last week when she was talking about the Reserve

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Speaker 2: being being patient and waiting to see how the trade

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Speaker 2: war affects our economy. There's Bullocks of the tilmoil caused

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Speaker 2: is not as bad as the two thousand and eight

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Speaker 2: global financial crisis. She hosed down calls fro an emergency

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Speaker 2: rate cut, speaking for the first time since Trump announced

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Speaker 2: those global tariffs bullets sought to reject calm. She said,

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Speaker 2: and I quote, it will take some time to see

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Speaker 2: how all this plays out, and the added unpredictability means

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Speaker 2: we need to be patient as we work through how

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Speaker 2: all of this could affect demand and supply globally. Read

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Speaker 2: between the lines on that one, Michael, not a late

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Speaker 2: our Maazir that there's a rate cut in May.

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Speaker 1: No. Two things to mention quickly, Sean, speaking of the economy,

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Speaker 1: we have fear and greed. The weak ahead featuring our

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Speaker 1: resident economist Stephen could call us coming up as well

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Speaker 1: after the show, so definitely worth a listen that one.

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Speaker 1: The other is this idea of an emergency rate cut,

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Speaker 1: So the Reserve Bank can have an emergency meeting and

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Speaker 1: have an out of cycle rate cut if they if

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Speaker 1: they want to.

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Speaker 2: Yes, and it has happened though, I just I can

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Speaker 2: the top of my head remember when it was, but

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Speaker 2: it has happened definitely. Okay, all right, there you go.

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Speaker 1: So they're not necessarily tied to the strict kind of

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Speaker 1: set meetings, but it would have to be pretty dire

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Speaker 1: circumstances to actually warrant it, right.

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Speaker 2: And I think in more since the Howard Castello government

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Speaker 2: where the Reserve Bank got its independence, I don't think

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Speaker 2: it's happened since then. I might could be say crypt there,

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Speaker 2: but what the Reserve Bank does want to do is

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Speaker 2: shock markets, so they try and telegraph everything they're going

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Speaker 2: to do. So it's unlikely for that to happen all

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Speaker 2: right now. Some of Australia's rare earth companies, including Linus,

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Speaker 2: Northern Minerals and Arrafura are benefiting from the turmoil in

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Speaker 2: financial markets, so all part of this trade war. Ten

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Speaker 2: days ago, China increased restrictions and exports of rare earths

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Speaker 2: as part of its trade war with the US. Shares

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Speaker 2: in local rare earth producers surged on VESTA bets that

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Speaker 2: they could be the long term supplies the materials that

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Speaker 2: buyers need to deliver energy in defense systems. Australia has

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Speaker 2: been postponing or has been positioning itself as a key

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Speaker 2: supplier of critical minerals, including rare earths used in electric vehicles,

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Speaker 2: whin turbines, that type of thing. We've been pushing that

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Speaker 2: line for about ten years now. Up to now. China's

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Speaker 2: dominance has made breaking through difficult. But because of what's

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Speaker 2: going on, the companies you mentioned liners to all the minerals,

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Speaker 2: Arafira are doing really well because there's an opening for

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Speaker 2: them in the market.

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Speaker 1: Turn into international news now Sean and Prada is buying

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Speaker 1: Versaci from fashion conglomerate Capri Holdings for one point four

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Speaker 1: billion US dollars, salvaging a deal that was actually at

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Speaker 1: risk of collapsing because of the market up Evil.

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Speaker 2: You're not showing enough excitement on this story, Michael, Prada

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Speaker 2: buying Forsaci, you know, two of the great fashion houses.

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Speaker 1: No, it's really going to have a very direct impact

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Speaker 1: on meat sure. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. The Wall Street Journal reports that the deal's completion

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Speaker 2: was uncertain because Prata's namesake family still haven't given their

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Speaker 2: final approval. However, Vasaci amazing Italian fashion house founded more

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Speaker 2: than forty years ago, known for its flashy, in sometimes

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Speaker 2: at riskay designs. Last month, Capri appointed Dario Vitali to

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Speaker 2: succeed Donna Teller Asaci. You do know who Donna Teller

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Speaker 2: Fazarci is, Yes, yeah, good as chief creative officer now

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Speaker 2: PRI's brand, they included Michael Cors Jimmy Choo. It struck

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Speaker 2: a two point one billion dollar deal for the Massachi

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Speaker 2: business about seven years ago as part of a plan

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Speaker 2: to create a global luxury fashion business. However, Capri other

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Speaker 2: luxury brands really struggling with weak demand. I mean they

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Speaker 2: bought that Covid hit. It really hasn't bounced. It bounced

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Speaker 2: back well, But in more recent times the luxury market

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Speaker 2: has really struggled. Shopers are raining and spending on price

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Speaker 2: of products. Now Donald Trump's tariffs have exacerbated that challenge

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Speaker 2: by forcing the industry to deal with the prospect of

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Speaker 2: higher costs. So now Capri is trying to get rid

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Speaker 2: of a sar deprada.

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Speaker 1: I love how naturally you speak about high end luxury goods.

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Speaker 2: You were laughing the whole way through that. I I

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Speaker 2: was looking at you and you just like you're smiling

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Speaker 2: trying to laugh at me.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but look okay into more familiar terrain or comfortable

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Speaker 1: terrain perhaps for you, because I know that you love

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Speaker 1: your sport. One of the biggest football stars in the

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Speaker 1: world is launching legal action against his old club, seeking

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Speaker 1: fifty five million euros. That about one hundred and ten

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Speaker 1: million Ausie dollars.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Killian m Barpey has instructed lawyers to sue former

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Speaker 2: club Paras Saint Germain to recover the massive some the

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Speaker 2: French football star claims he's owed in unpaid wages and bonuses.

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Speaker 2: I mean that's a lot of money in unpaid wages.

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Speaker 2: The dispuite steems from Embarbe's acrimonius twenty twenty four move

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Speaker 2: to Spanish giants Real Madrid, the year after he was

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Speaker 2: temporarily sidelined by PSG, and Barpey claims PHG dropped him

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Speaker 2: from the team after he refused to extend his contract

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Speaker 2: at the club. At a press conference announcing criminal and

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Speaker 2: civil suits, one of m Barbey's lawyers was reported in

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Speaker 2: the Ft saying I remind you that Killian m barpe

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Speaker 2: is the captain of the French national team. He's the

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Speaker 2: highest scorer in the history of the club and he's

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Speaker 2: owed a bit of recognition, that is to say, he

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Speaker 2: should be paid his salary fair enough. Now. PSG for

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Speaker 2: those who don't know football well, PSG is the club

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Speaker 2: in the French League mbar Pei, the French captain arguably

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Speaker 2: the best player in the world at the moment. Certainly

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Speaker 2: in that conversation, it's kind of like having Pat Cummons

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Speaker 2: fighting cricket Australia. What's going on to get paid? It's

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Speaker 2: that kind that's about where we're at.

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Speaker 1: Okay, thank you for putting it in and now if

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Speaker 1: you were to describe it in terms of prata and vasachi,

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Speaker 1: yeah it okay, all right.

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Speaker 2: Look.

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Speaker 1: Showing up next is Fear and Grad The week Ahead

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Speaker 1: featuring Stephen Kirkculis economist, and then our Fear and Grad

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Speaker 1: daily into June Beailu from tencap. Great one for investors,

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Speaker 1: so plenty of good listening coming up in the Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed playlist or at Fearangreed dot com dot au,

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Speaker 1: which friendly reminder is where you sign up for the

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Speaker 1: free daily newsletter. All You've got to do Pop your

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Speaker 1: email address in and the next one will land in

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Speaker 1: your inbox by six am. Thank you very much, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Monday, the fourteenth of April twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson and that was fear and greed. Have a great day.