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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Fear and Greed business Interview. I'm Sean Alma.

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Speaker 1: How do you invest in an on again, off again market?

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump's tariff's, the threat of an all out trade war,

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Speaker 1: and the risk of a US recession are giving investors whiplash?

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Speaker 1: So how should they navigate markets when Wall Street and

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Speaker 1: the ax A rising and falling sharply seemingly every other day.

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Speaker 1: Remember this is general information only. You should always seek

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Speaker 1: professional advice before making investment decisions. Tim hex Runzie, Government

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Speaker 1: Bond Portfolio at Pendall Group. Tim, Welcome to Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 2: Thank you. Sean, must to be on.

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Speaker 1: How do you described the first fifty days or so

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Speaker 1: of Donald Trump in terms of markets? At least.

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Speaker 2: It has been chaos. You're right, you said the ups

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Speaker 2: and downs. I think there's been more downs and ups

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Speaker 2: in recent times. But look, yeah, it has gone from

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Speaker 2: being sort of a something where you look at things

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Speaker 2: a more medium term to something where it's not only

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Speaker 2: by the week or by the day. It's bide the

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Speaker 2: house sometimes his pronouncements, But I guess what people are

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Speaker 2: trying to do is sift through them to find out

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Speaker 2: the themes and where we may end up in three

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Speaker 2: to six months time, as opposed to just reacting to

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Speaker 2: every single headline.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so on that he talked about in the last

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Speaker 1: forty eight hours or so. A potential of a US recession,

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Speaker 1: that's probably overstating. He didn't say that. He just said

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Speaker 1: that there'd be a hiccup or two on the way.

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Speaker 1: What is the chance of a US recession?

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Speaker 2: It's still pretty low. I mean, you got to look

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Speaker 2: at the starting point. US has been growing at a

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Speaker 2: very healthy three percent a year, contrasting with US down

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Speaker 2: here where we've been managing around about one percent per year.

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Speaker 2: So it's from a pretty good high. But remember, a recession,

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Speaker 2: if you've been technical about it, you need two quarters

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Speaker 2: of negative growth. That's not impossible if certainly, if the

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Speaker 2: medicine they take to sort of achieve what they want

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Speaker 2: to achieve medium term is strong enough, you can't rule

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Speaker 2: it out. But it's still a very low probability. US

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Speaker 2: government spending behind the scenes is still tracking along at

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Speaker 2: a very strong pace, and that's going to keep going

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Speaker 2: right throughout the year. He hasn't made any big cutbacks

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Speaker 2: on government yet, other than obviously some of the very

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Speaker 2: high profile layoffs in the government, job sector. O.

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Speaker 1: Is there a point? So why a market's so volatile

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Speaker 1: at the moment? Is it trade wars?

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Speaker 2: I think you've got to look at the starting point

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Speaker 2: that you've got to keep that in mind. I mean,

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Speaker 2: you hear the US markets are off almost ten percent,

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Speaker 2: and that sounds very dramatic, but we're kind of back

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Speaker 2: to where we were just before when the election campaign

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Speaker 2: was on in September October, clearly after Trump got in

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Speaker 2: and then sort of right up to his inauguration and

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Speaker 2: slightly after, there was a real optimism there that he

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Speaker 2: was going to gain me very pro business, all about

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Speaker 2: tax cuts, it was going to sort of herald another

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Speaker 2: surge in growth. And what is revealed is that, you know,

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Speaker 2: I think those themes are still there in the background,

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Speaker 2: but he's got an agenda neer term which is quite different.

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Speaker 2: And the way I described it was, you know, when

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Speaker 2: you start looking at trade and you're sort of throwing

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Speaker 2: sand into the wheels, you do really start to bring

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Speaker 2: question what may happen to growth in a near term.

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Speaker 2: So I would characterize serme equity market moves as the

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Speaker 2: frotht coming out as opposed to grave concerns about where

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Speaker 2: this is all heading because we had that surge, and

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Speaker 2: that surge is now reversed, which is probably appropriate, particularly

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Speaker 2: and I'm not an equity person, but particularly given some

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Speaker 2: very sort of what you might call optimistic EPs levels.

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Speaker 2: You know, people factoring some pretty healthy earnings growth, which

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Speaker 2: is probably getting a bit of ahead of itself.

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Speaker 1: It's almost like the correction we had to have.

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Speaker 2: Tim A, Yeah, you're right. I mean it's a little

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Speaker 2: soft to sort of say that, because marketers do generally

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Speaker 2: grind higher over time. But yeah, look when it always

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Speaker 2: worries me when you get too far away from that

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Speaker 2: sort of consistent sort of growth line, which is, if

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Speaker 2: you think about the economy grows on average, it should

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Speaker 2: grow around two and a half percent, and that's in

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Speaker 2: real terms. You get around about two and a half

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Speaker 2: percent inflation. You're looking at economy in nominal terms growing

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Speaker 2: on average five percent a year. And you know, obviously,

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Speaker 2: if you're throwing a little bit of risk premium for equities,

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Speaker 2: you know, that's where you get your six or seven

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Speaker 2: percent per year style returns that people talk about through

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Speaker 2: to cycle. So you've always got to get a little

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Speaker 2: worried when you get ten fifteen twenty percent surges that

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Speaker 2: markets still get a little vulnerable at that point.

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Speaker 1: Stay with me, Tim, We'll be back in a moment.

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Speaker 1: I'm speaking to Tim Hext from Pendle Group. Okay, so,

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Speaker 1: as an investor, how do you see through the noise?

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Speaker 1: It's okay to say that we're kind of pulling back

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Speaker 1: a little bit, but how should investors think about it?

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Speaker 1: Not just equities, but you're obviously government bonds and credit

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Speaker 1: markets generally, well.

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Speaker 2: I mean for government bonds and for interest rates, which

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Speaker 2: is already why I focus. You've got to keep your

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Speaker 2: eyes on the main prize, and that is inflation. Inflation

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Speaker 2: is the most important thing. Growth matters, but ultimately inflation

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Speaker 2: is the most important. And you know, despite obviously some

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Speaker 2: concerns about there being some higher inflation near term if

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Speaker 2: tarifs were here to really gain a stronghold, inflation overall

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Speaker 2: is pretty well behaved. In the US it's somewhere and

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Speaker 2: in Australia it's somewhere sort of around three percent. The

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Speaker 2: US has been a little bit lower than that, but

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Speaker 2: you know, it's at a level where it's not high

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Speaker 2: inflation anymore. I define high inflation as anything about four

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Speaker 2: percent and it's when you get that that you start

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Speaker 2: to see markets genuinely become unsettled, and that's what we

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Speaker 2: saw in twenty twenty two. So how do you get

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Speaker 2: high inflation. It's through supply side shocks, it's not really

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Speaker 2: through the demand side, and I haven't seen any evidence

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Speaker 2: of those. And with that in mind, I think inflation

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Speaker 2: is pretty well contained. It does leave space through interest

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Speaker 2: rates to fourth further and ultimately that's good news for

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Speaker 2: the economy. So they're the sort of things you have

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Speaker 2: to keep your eye on in the medium to longer term,

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Speaker 2: you know, near term, obviously, other things will sort of

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Speaker 2: push markets around.

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Speaker 1: Okay, in terms of the interest rate prognosis both here

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Speaker 1: in the US, you expect rate cuts this year, yes,

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Speaker 1: I do.

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Speaker 2: I mean we've seen one here. A reserve bank was

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Speaker 2: very quick to sort of hose down the possibility of anymore.

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Speaker 2: I think that's them in their super cautious mode they've

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Speaker 2: had since poor old Phil lo got pillared all over

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Speaker 2: the place for his predictions about where interest rates were going.

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Speaker 2: Our assurances as many people heard them, so they're very

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Speaker 2: cautious not to give any forward guidance. But if you

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Speaker 2: think about inflation, Australia it is now around about the

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Speaker 2: three percent level, and it does look like it's going

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Speaker 2: to remain there or maybe even slightly lower. And with

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Speaker 2: that in mind, we just don't need rates as high

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Speaker 2: as they are. And I think in Australia there's still

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Speaker 2: room for a couple more cuts this year. The US

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Speaker 2: a similar picture. I think there's rooms for a couple

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Speaker 2: more Now. I'm going ahead on the assumption that the

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Speaker 2: US economy and the Australian economy do okay this year.

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Speaker 2: They don't have to do super well or super badly.

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Speaker 2: They just need to do okay, and that creates a

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Speaker 2: bit more room for inflation to come down.

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Speaker 1: So bringing all this together, it's kind of like, don't

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Speaker 1: penny in a sense. I mean, Donald Trump is making

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Speaker 1: a lot of noise and blustering, but it's not as

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Speaker 1: if we've fallen out of bed here or anything like that.

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Speaker 2: Well, you know, you've got to look at what he's

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Speaker 2: trying to do. And in amongst and obviously all your

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Speaker 2: listeners will have one hundred different perspectives about the individual

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Speaker 2: and about perhaps how he governs, et cetera, et cetera.

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Speaker 2: But in the spirit of the art of the deal.

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Speaker 2: He sort of causes a bit of chaos to try

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Speaker 2: and get what he wants, and so far in some areas,

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Speaker 2: you've got to say he's been quite successful. I mean,

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Speaker 2: the fact that Europe's now coming out talking about much

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Speaker 2: higher defense spending on its own, not relying on the US,

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Speaker 2: would be seen as a very good result for all

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Speaker 2: the chaos he's caused over there with the tariffs. Clearly

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Speaker 2: he's getting concessions to what he views as unfair deals,

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Speaker 2: and you know, he would describe it as leveling the

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Speaker 2: playing field. And I really think, you know, it's the

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Speaker 2: fact that, without getting to too much geopolitics, it's the

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Speaker 2: fact that sort of the America always as seen as

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Speaker 2: the responsible adult in the room, and he's kind of

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Speaker 2: throwing it up in the air a bit and it's

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Speaker 2: making other people have to react. So but I think

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Speaker 2: in the bigger picture, he's not one to sort of

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Speaker 2: upend the economy just to achieve some idea, logical aim.

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Speaker 2: He will make sure that the economy doesn't collapse, as

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Speaker 2: you put it. But look, if I look ahead at

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Speaker 2: well growth over a medium to longer time timeframe, tariffs

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Speaker 2: will pull that back a bit, but not enough to

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Speaker 2: really upset things. So I would describe, yes, you're right,

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Speaker 2: not panic, But I always encourage people to sort of

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Speaker 2: keep an eye where actual levels are, particularly when it

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Speaker 2: comes to equities, even for Bonzo, and when there's this

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Speaker 2: too much optimism priced den. You know, there's always plenty

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Speaker 2: of room for corrections, and I would say we're probably

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Speaker 2: through the majority of the correction, maybe got a little

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Speaker 2: bit more to go before we sort of settle down

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Speaker 2: at some point now in the middle of the year.

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Speaker 1: Just one final thing. We talk about the US and

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Speaker 1: Australia a lot. We sot of forget Europe, but in

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Speaker 1: certainly in terms of equities, certainly outperformed the local market

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Speaker 1: and Wall Street in twenty twenty five. Is Europe only

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Speaker 1: because it has to stand as two feet We've got

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Speaker 1: places like Germany spending huge amounts of money on rebuilding,

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Speaker 1: defense and things like that. They're sort of we should

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Speaker 1: take a little bit more notice of Europe going forward.

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Speaker 2: Look, I mean you should always say notice of Europe.

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Speaker 2: It's the second I mean, Europe, China and the US

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Speaker 2: is pretty much the world economy. Obviously, you know, maybe

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Speaker 2: I should be a little bit more sympathetic to our

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Speaker 2: UK and Japanese friends, but you know, they are the

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Speaker 2: Big three. We all keep an eye on China being

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Speaker 2: Australia obviously in China is actually showing some encouraging signs

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Speaker 2: against it. But really, I mean, the narrative which existed

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Speaker 2: at the start of this year was a US exceptionalism narrative.

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Speaker 2: And part of that is true because they have had

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Speaker 2: stronger GDP, they've had more productivity than all the other

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Speaker 2: regions by a significant margin, so there is some basis

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Speaker 2: to that, But there was also kind of what they

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Speaker 2: called a reflexivity of prices. Prices had done very well.

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Speaker 2: People looking for a reason for that, why US prices

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Speaker 2: had done so well in terms of equities, and the

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Speaker 2: exceptions and narrative fitted in quite well. And you know

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Speaker 2: what happens come January. The minute everyone thinks the US

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Speaker 2: is kind of going to dominate the world forever, well,

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Speaker 2: you get deep seat comes out and then he of

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Speaker 2: the new president comes in and perhaps he's throwing a

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Speaker 2: few more bars in the ed and people thought and

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Speaker 2: suddenly you know, they do look a slightly exceptional, but

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Speaker 2: perhaps not as exceptional as they were. So anyone who's

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Speaker 2: been in US equities will know that they've had an

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Speaker 2: amazing run and most of us have been left behind

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Speaker 2: in its wake, including Australia and Europe. And this year

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Speaker 2: so far is some of that correction. China's doing much better,

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Speaker 2: Europe's doing better, Australia, you know, not so well. But

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Speaker 2: we're hanging in there.

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Speaker 1: Tim, You're making me feel better about the world.

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Speaker 2: I shouldn't do that as a bond guy.

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Speaker 1: That's not your job.

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Speaker 2: I generally the equity guys to tea evering's fantastic and

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Speaker 2: going to be fantastic. But yeah, look, I think you

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Speaker 2: do have to keep some perspective about you know what

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Speaker 2: the US president's sort of medium to long term gain

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Speaker 2: is as opposed to sort of announcement by announcement.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Tim, thank you for talking to Fear and Greed Pleasure.

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Speaker 2: Sean, thank you.

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Speaker 1: As Tim Hext, head of Government bond Strategies at Pendle Group.

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Speaker 1: This is the Fear and Greed Business Interview. Remember this

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Speaker 1: is general only and you should see professional advice before investing.

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Speaker 1: Join us every morning for the full episode of Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed at Daily Business News. For people who make

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Speaker 1: their own decisions, I'm Sean Elma enjoy your day,