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Speaker 1: Hi, my Boris, And this is straight Talk Chris Joey

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Speaker 1: walking back to the straight Talk mate. Lots happening since

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Speaker 1: I last said you like you're hearing what March March

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Speaker 1: March this year and we were talking this is sort

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Speaker 1: of trade war announcement, sort of period pre trade war,

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Speaker 1: pre trade war. Okay, so it was pre liberation Day,

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Speaker 1: that's right, preliberation day, so called liberation day. So he

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Speaker 1: announced and you know, you were predicting rate cuts, and

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Speaker 1: we've got a recut in may RBA recut and then

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Speaker 1: we're probably going to get a rate cut again in July.

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Speaker 1: But we'll come back to that in a second. Just

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Speaker 1: if we just peel back though, because you know, with Trump,

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Speaker 1: you know, doing what he's doing, and with the world,

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Speaker 1: the volatility is crazy. But sometimes we sort of tend

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Speaker 1: to forget what has happened before, Like we just sort

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Speaker 1: of concentrated what's happening now. And we will talk about

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Speaker 1: Israeli run. But if we just go back to that

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Speaker 1: March discussion, just remind us what you were saying in March,

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Speaker 1: pre trade war. Trump.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so I said, I thought you were s equities

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Speaker 2: would fall forty percent and that it was going to

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Speaker 2: be really bad, and he was really serious on tariffs,

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Speaker 2: and no one was prepared for this very hawkish Trump

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Speaker 2: on tariffs, and that it was basically going to get

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Speaker 2: pretty ugly. And what happened was the SMP five hundred.

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Speaker 2: US equities fell twenty two percent post Liberation Day YEP,

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Speaker 2: and the Nasdaq index fell twenty seven percent. And that

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Speaker 2: was through to nine April. So two April was Liberation Day,

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Speaker 2: and then Trump, being the increasingly consummate iterator, backflips on

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Speaker 2: nine April. He says, Okay, I've scared the shit out

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Speaker 2: of markets. I've kind of declared a forever trade war

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Speaker 2: on everyone. I'm going to focus on China, but everyone

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Speaker 2: else I'll do a deal with. So he's sticking true

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Speaker 2: to his plan. He's decoupling from China. That's happening. He's

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Speaker 2: going to bring all that manufacturing home. That's going to

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Speaker 2: be super positive for US growth in the medium term.

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Speaker 2: But he's doing trade deals with everybody. Markets loved it.

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Speaker 2: The day he backflipped, the US sequity market jumped nine

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Speaker 2: and a half percent. We on that day bought one

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Speaker 2: point seven billion dollars of bonds.

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Speaker 1: And then we've been Colby.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the firm I run, we run fifteen billion, and

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Speaker 2: then from nine April to thirty April we bought four

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Speaker 2: point six billion of bonds and we thought, so we were.

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Speaker 1: Super bearish March. He bonds between about global wares y.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, US banking, so he banks. But on the show

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Speaker 2: last time.

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Speaker 1: I was, you know, the uber bear.

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Speaker 2: But we flipped one hundred and eighty degrees when we

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Speaker 2: saw him basically shift from being an ideological trade warrior.

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Speaker 2: So basically this hyper zealous guy which was Trump from

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Speaker 2: the election to nine April to suddenly becoming a market whisperer.

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Speaker 2: Our judgment was on nine April he was going to

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Speaker 2: do everything he needed to do to plicate markets, and

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Speaker 2: therefore it was a super attractive buying opportunity. And at

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Speaker 2: the same time he's still running some pretty serious intensive

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Speaker 2: warfare with the boss of the Fed Power.

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Speaker 1: Yeah see that.

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Speaker 2: And interestingly, and I think this is genius.

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Speaker 1: Because because his term is coming up to yeah next year.

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Speaker 2: But the genius trade that Trump looks like I think

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Speaker 2: he's going to affect is he's going to pre announce

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Speaker 2: his successor I think.

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Speaker 1: Soon announce power successor, Yeah, which.

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Speaker 2: Is just genius, so he will undermine power and anoint

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Speaker 2: his success who's dubbish. And the Federal cut rates this

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Speaker 2: year and pretty aggressively, I think, because they can, and

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Speaker 2: because rates are very high in the US, so they

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Speaker 2: are around four and a half percent here ast with

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Speaker 2: three point eight four And as you said on the

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Speaker 2: show last time, we said that the RBA would cut

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Speaker 2: in May. They cut in May, They're going to cut

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Speaker 2: in July. There will be three more cuts this year,

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Speaker 2: so five cuts. In title last time we spoke about

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Speaker 2: the fact that, you know, we were very bullish on housing.

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Speaker 2: Sydney house prices started rising and Melbourne started rising in

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Speaker 2: February and they're.

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Speaker 1: Climbing quickly off the back of the eight in the

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Speaker 1: February cut.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and so we call that cut in December, and

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Speaker 2: basically of the view that the housing market would turn

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Speaker 2: in February. It's actually notwithstanding we expected. It's quite amazing

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Speaker 2: how inch straight elastic the market is and Sydney prices

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Speaker 2: and Melbourne prices going gangbusters.

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Speaker 1: When you mean lest you get to a most sensitive

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Speaker 1: so how the market responds quickly excuse me to either

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Speaker 1: asset classes, particularly housing just explained something to our listeners.

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Speaker 1: When you go off and buy global bonds, which were

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Speaker 1: whether it be issued out of the US or Australia wherever,

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Speaker 1: how do you make money in these markets? How does

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Speaker 1: Coolibar make money for its clients or for its basic investors.

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Speaker 2: Firstly, our yield's really attractive right now. So we're earning

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Speaker 2: interest rates on our bond portfolios of around seven to

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Speaker 2: eight percent, which.

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Speaker 1: Is much higher than people would get if they put

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Speaker 1: in the bank, for example.

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Speaker 2: So our yield's really attractive. And then when we buy

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Speaker 2: and sell bonds, we trade about half a billion to

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Speaker 2: a billion a day, and we make money eighty ninety

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Speaker 2: percent of the time.

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Speaker 1: Because other people would like to buy those very attractive

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Speaker 1: interest rates from you because they're not getting it anymore.

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Speaker 2: Correct, and they pay you a capital gain correct exactly.

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Speaker 2: So we might buy a bond paying five point one

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Speaker 2: percent and sell it for a year to five percent,

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Speaker 2: and that lower yield to give us a bit of

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Speaker 2: price appreciation, and that capital gain augments our total return.

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Speaker 1: And the reason you make cable gain because you don't

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Speaker 1: buy one bond at five point one as eleven five

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Speaker 1: of you buy thousands of millions.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and they're trading like you know, up to a

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Speaker 2: one to two billion a day, right, And you know

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Speaker 2: I've got the fifty sixty super smart guys and girls

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Speaker 2: that work for us, much smarter than me. I'm the brawn,

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Speaker 2: they're the brains. I'm the window dressing and and but yeah,

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Speaker 2: crazy smart team. I mean lots of university medalists and

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Speaker 2: PhDs and super smart dudes.

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Speaker 1: How do you find these people?

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Speaker 2: We actually find I like to call us like the

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Speaker 2: odd bods. Like our guys are always just you know,

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Speaker 2: that crazy smart guy, a girl who's sitting inside a

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Speaker 2: big organization, who's not political. He's probably been stiffed on

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Speaker 2: camp a few times and wants to be part of

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Speaker 2: a big team.

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Speaker 1: Stan they missed out on a commission that they're expected

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Speaker 1: to get or get a bonus or something like that.

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Speaker 2: But they're not political, but they are the smartest guys

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Speaker 2: in the room, and they want to play a team sport.

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Speaker 1: Basically, I don't appreciate it. Underappreciated.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and all of our guys are pretty idiosyncratic, a

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Speaker 2: little eccentric, but they're all team players and cool of

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Speaker 2: bar as a team sport. Like you know, we're fifty

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Speaker 2: sixty very talented guys and girls, but it's it's like

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Speaker 2: a machine. It's not one person making decisions. Where ninety

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Speaker 2: eight percent of our trading is driven by models, so

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Speaker 2: financial models, and there's no rock stars, there's no heroes

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Speaker 2: that billionaire a day. That way, trading is quantitative.

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Speaker 1: So when when when the RBA does its modeling And

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Speaker 1: most people think that you know, the RBA just sits

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Speaker 1: around there and they will put their hand UPBA or NA.

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Speaker 1: There's actually the the people within the RBA. The people

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Speaker 1: work there as opposed to the board. They make submissions

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Speaker 1: as to what should happen. But the RBA is continually

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Speaker 1: doing modeling. I mean they they run off I think

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Speaker 1: one of the model models of the al models users

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Speaker 1: called Martin I think, or.

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Speaker 2: Something along the model of that.

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Speaker 1: And there's another one to do GSC. I don't know

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Speaker 1: what it stands for. But in any event, what are

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Speaker 1: your guys doing relative to analytics around what the RBA

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Speaker 1: is doing, because you know, like I just get this

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Speaker 1: feeling though most people out there think that we're just

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Speaker 1: sort of saying, well, you know that number coming out

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Speaker 1: of the AUSTRAMI your statistics was a bit low or

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Speaker 1: it was a great two point one is a great

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Speaker 1: headline inflation rate, two four is a great trim million,

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Speaker 1: and therefore we should just reduce interust rates. No, the

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Speaker 1: RBA has got all these variables, so they stick into

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Speaker 1: their models and we'll come back to the model in

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Speaker 1: a second. But they're sticking to the models, and that

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Speaker 1: spits out a result. And there's lots of variables, like

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Speaker 1: there's millions of them, not millions, there's a lot anyway,

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Speaker 1: And then they build different scenarios for sensitivity. What do

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Speaker 1: you guys do do you do work around that stuff

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Speaker 1: too with your team I'm.

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Speaker 2: Talking about yeah, So, I mean most of our modeling

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Speaker 2: is pricing the right interest rate for CBO, RAINS or

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Speaker 2: NAB to pay us on their.

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Speaker 1: Debt so on a bond that U motorable from them CORET.

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Speaker 2: So we're lending money to everyone in the world Google, Apple, JP,

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Speaker 2: Morgan Gold and Sacks, CBA. And what we do is

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Speaker 2: pricing interust rates better than anyone in the world, we believe,

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Speaker 2: and we require a huge amount of tech to do that.

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Speaker 2: So we have like eighty models that we use around

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Speaker 2: the world. We also more or less let the models trade,

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Speaker 2: so we have our goes that trade alongside our humans

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Speaker 2: basically like a proper count. Yeah, like ninety eight percent

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Speaker 2: of our trading is quantitativele.

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Speaker 1: When sentiment gets involved and the cont doesn't understand it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so that's where the two percent comes in, right.

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Speaker 2: You know, it's just not a cookie cut of trade.

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Speaker 2: It might be April or you know, there might be

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Speaker 2: a trade war, or it might be Trump backflipping, and

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Speaker 2: then the team step in and saying, okay, we'll wait

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Speaker 2: a second. The models are saying things are cheap, but

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Speaker 2: we also think there's a regime change here the personality. Well, yeah,

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Speaker 2: Trump's shifting course and that's really important for future pricing.

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Speaker 2: So in addition to pricing every bond of the world

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Speaker 2: all day every day, we also run a ton of

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Speaker 2: modeling to try and predict what the RBA and the

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Speaker 2: fair are going to do. Not because we punt interest rates,

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Speaker 2: so this is a little bit confusing. We don't bet

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Speaker 2: on the direction of the RBA before they make a decision, correct,

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Speaker 2: we never do that with price bonds. But we want

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Speaker 2: to understand what the RBA is going to do and

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Speaker 2: what's the what the Fed will do before anyone else

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Speaker 2: so that we can better trade the bonds.

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Speaker 1: So just to take it back a step, just like

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Speaker 1: you're very technical, super bright, I'll just try to put

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Speaker 1: that into mark speak. So when you buy the bonds,

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Speaker 1: you buy the word of the shoe prices, as you know,

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Speaker 1: whoever's issue in the bonds will be whatever it is.

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Speaker 1: And what if the shoe prices and the rate they're

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Speaker 1: offering you ines rate they're offering you. But what you're

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Speaker 1: talking about is when you do do this analysis or

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Speaker 1: your team does this analysis in a quantitative sense using

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Speaker 1: perhaps software or the systems doing it for you, just

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Speaker 1: put aside the qualitative stuff and a set We'll come

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Speaker 1: back to that beause I want to talk about Trump.

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Speaker 1: You're trying to get a sense of what the RBA

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Speaker 1: is going to do, so you know whether to get

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Speaker 1: ahead of it by doing a trade in relations to

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Speaker 1: what you already hold.

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Speaker 2: Correct. Yeah, So the way I describe is that we

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Speaker 2: don't trade macro like the RBA or what they're going

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Speaker 2: to do almost all the time. However, once or twice

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Speaker 2: a year, once every couple of years, macro is really important.

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Speaker 2: Macro is super important in March and April. So because

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Speaker 2: of our macro modeling, and our macro guys were saying

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Speaker 2: Trump's going to be crazy hawkish on trade and that's

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Speaker 2: going to blow up equities. We'd hedged twenty five to

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Speaker 2: fifty percent of all of our skin March before Liberation Day,

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Speaker 2: and we'd sold a lot of our bonds. And then

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Speaker 2: because of our macro analysis in mid April and the

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Speaker 2: ninth of April, we thought that there was another regime

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Speaker 2: and that he was going to be much more of

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Speaker 2: a guy that tried to assuage market concerns and manage markets,

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Speaker 2: and that this would be risk positive. So our macro

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Speaker 2: influenced the one point seven billion of buying we did

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Speaker 2: on the ninth of April. And you know, to talk

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Speaker 2: a geopolitics, I mean that's been very important for our

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Speaker 2: trading as well. I mean I was sitting last week

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Speaker 2: or soo two weeks ago in Zuri at the airport,

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Speaker 2: and I think we've developed quite a good capacity to

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Speaker 2: read Trump and to discern his tails.

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Speaker 1: He's got clear tells. Can you talk about that? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: So, like when he came out and said just before

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Speaker 2: Israel launched it's onslaught against Iran, he came out and

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Speaker 2: made this really strong statement.

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Speaker 1: He said thirteen fifteen days ago.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and he said there is no risk of Israel

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Speaker 2: attacking I run imminently, but they might do it. So

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Speaker 2: at some point internally we were of the view that

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Speaker 2: he was engaging in subterfuge and that there was a

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Speaker 2: good chance that actually Israel was about to strike immediately.

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Speaker 1: And that's exactly what happened.

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Speaker 2: And in that Zime and I wrote about this actually

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Speaker 2: in the AFI and the reason being, So, the reason

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Speaker 2: being is he just can't help himself. He's a massive

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Speaker 2: front runner of inside information. So whenever Trumpy has the

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Speaker 2: good oil, which he as president of the United States

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Speaker 2: and leader of the free world, ostensibly he gets the

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Speaker 2: juice all the time, something cooking well. He always knows what,

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Speaker 2: he knows what everyone's going to do right, all the time,

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Speaker 2: and he can't help himself. He wants to be man

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Speaker 2: in the middle. He wants to be the center of attention.

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Speaker 2: And so I thought he was being I said to

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Speaker 2: my guys, he's come out bizarrely and said there's no

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Speaker 2: chance of an Israeli strike, but Israel's going to do

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Speaker 2: what Israel's going to do. They're an independent sovereign. Say yeah,

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Speaker 2: that will be influenced by him. But it's kind of

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Speaker 2: bizarre that he's taken away that sort of sovereign right

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Speaker 2: and that decision making he would front run whether they

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Speaker 2: would and wouldn't strike, because he's also taking.

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Speaker 1: Away there.

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Speaker 2: To capitalize on strategic surprise. Why would you do that?

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Speaker 2: It doesn't make sense. So I said to my guys,

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Speaker 2: I actually think they're going to have a shot, because

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Speaker 2: this is Trump playing games. He's trying to manipulate global

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Speaker 2: perceptions of what they will won't do. And subsequently, apparently

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Speaker 2: he was all in on it, and he said that

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Speaker 2: to mislead the Iranians. But the really interesting thing was then,

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Speaker 2: So I was sitting in Zurich airport, I guess almost

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Speaker 2: a week later, and I was catching a flight to Dubai,

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Speaker 2: and I had a conference call with my traders in London,

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Speaker 2: New York. And as I'm talking to them, I'm reading

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Speaker 2: this article that says that Trump's come out and said

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Speaker 2: that he's going to give Iran basically two weeks, that

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Speaker 2: he'll make a decision on whether to strike Iran in

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Speaker 2: approximately two weeks time. And I said to my guys,

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Speaker 2: I think he's going to go. I think he's going

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Speaker 2: to go this weekend. I wrote this in the Financial

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Speaker 2: you as well. I said on the Friday before he

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Speaker 2: bombed Ran, I said in the AFR, I think he's

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Speaker 2: going to have a shot this weekend. And so we

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Speaker 2: sold about three to five hundred million dollars of bonds

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Speaker 2: in that phone call, just because I wanted to de

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Speaker 2: risk and dude. I then jump onto the Emirates flight

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Speaker 2: and I wake up in the middle of the flight

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Speaker 2: and the whole planes I can feel the g forces

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Speaker 2: pushing me back into the seed, the planes kind of

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Speaker 2: switching direction in an unusually sort of rapid way. I

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Speaker 2: hit the in flight map. We're right on top of Baghdad,

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Speaker 2: like literally right above Bagdad, flying through Iraqi air space.

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Speaker 2: And then I go to my phone and I look

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Speaker 2: at my Bloomberg chat and there's a headline that the

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Speaker 2: guys have put up missile sighted in Iraq heading towards

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Speaker 2: Iran from Israel. And then I chatted my guys and said,

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Speaker 2: what's going on? Any more headlines? And then they hit

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Speaker 2: me with a stream of headlines. And so as we

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Speaker 2: were over Baghdad, the Israelis had launched their wall and

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Speaker 2: fired three hundred and thirty missiles at Iran and we

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Speaker 2: were evacuating the air space and I opened my window

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Speaker 2: shade and looked at the window. I don't know what

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Speaker 2: they were, but it was a very clear night sky.

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Speaker 2: I could see Bagdad below us, all the lights, the

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Speaker 2: city lights, and I could see about five different things

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Speaker 2: moving at great pace through the sky, whether our cruise

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Speaker 2: missiles fast jets, I don't know. And that the Iraqi

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Speaker 2: air space within an hour would be a no fly zone.

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Speaker 2: And so that was pretty discombobulating. And then we arrived

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Speaker 2: in Dubai and I'm like, holy shit, like, you know,

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Speaker 2: get me help, Yeah, game on. And then, of course,

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Speaker 2: you know Trump he himself bombs aren't so so this

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Speaker 2: to answer your question, you know, fund managers and investors

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Speaker 2: sometimes say things like stock because we'll say I pick stocks,

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Speaker 2: I don't do macro, and I think that's all shit.

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Speaker 1: I think you got to do everything. And that's what

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Speaker 1: we try and build. We try and bring to.

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Speaker 2: Bear unrelenting intellectual horsepower in every conceivable vector, whether it's

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Speaker 2: pricing the bonds, predicting what the IBA is going to do.

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Speaker 2: So we run a ton of quant models that are

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Speaker 2: solely geared towards trying to forcus what the feed is

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Speaker 2: going to do with the IBA is going to do,

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Speaker 2: not because we're trading it day to day, but once

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Speaker 2: a year it might be relevant and also doing a

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Speaker 2: ton of geopolitical work. So you know, we built AI

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Speaker 2: models that for the first time in history, we've published

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Speaker 2: research on this. You can go to our website predictingwar

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Speaker 2: dot com we published years ago.

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Speaker 1: Go to your website cool and look on the tab

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Speaker 1: predicting war dot com.

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Speaker 2: And there's actually a separate website called predicting water coom.

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Speaker 2: We've created at about seven eight nine years ago, and

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Speaker 2: we built AI models to predict military conflicts between nation

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Speaker 2: states using two hundred years of military conflict data in

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Speaker 2: the University of Michigan data set. But we wanted to

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Speaker 2: show you could put a probability on these things if

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Speaker 2: you look at you know, what nation states are saying

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Speaker 2: about one another, if you look at the development of

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Speaker 2: their military capability, their power projection capacity, if you look

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Speaker 2: at their demography, their economics. The models are quite accurate,

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Speaker 2: and you know, for example, they put a forty nine

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Speaker 2: percent of the US and China being involved in some

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Speaker 2: sort of conflict over the next ten years, and we

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Speaker 2: published research on it none had ever done, but none

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Speaker 2: it ever put empirical probabilities, predictive probabilities on the prospective

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Speaker 2: military conflicts before it. I wanted to show that data

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Speaker 2: can give you a lot of insight on this. So

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Speaker 2: so yeah, so I think we got the you know,

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Speaker 2: we did a good job of anticipating the initial Israeli strikes.

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Speaker 1: And that allowed you to de risk.

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Speaker 2: No, we actually didn't do anything in response to that,

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Speaker 2: so we didn't monetize that insight. But we then definitely

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Speaker 2: did monetize the second event when we anticipated that Trump

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Speaker 2: would strike over that weekend and bomb ran with the

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Speaker 2: B two stealth bombers and the GBU fifty seven mop

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Speaker 2: bombs of twelve thousand ton bombs.

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Speaker 1: That the two thousand pounds. Yes, yeah, that he.

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Speaker 2: Dropped on Fedora and the Tance and the third nuclear

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Speaker 2: side and so we did risk ahead of that, and

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Speaker 2: then when he executed that mission, we then so after

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Speaker 2: that he basically announced the world, our bombers are out

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Speaker 2: of Iraqi Iranian airspace. No American souls have been hurt.

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Speaker 2: We've obliterated these nuclear targets. We actually put all the

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Speaker 2: risks back on immediately and started to have continuously added risk,

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Speaker 2: and our view was yeah, continuously brought billions. And that's

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Speaker 2: because our view was a few things. We think Comedie

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Speaker 2: is dead. We think his son's dead. We've been arguing this.

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Speaker 2: You still think that, Yeah, I think, I mean, I

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Speaker 2: don't know, but we've thought for about a week or

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Speaker 2: so that Comedy is dead.

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Speaker 1: I think it's very haven't seen him.

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Speaker 2: We haven't seen him. We haven't heard from him.

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Speaker 1: You've seen the foreign minister or.

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Speaker 2: His successor, which is his son. They're all am I A.

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Speaker 2: And so we think either community is dead and his

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Speaker 2: son's dead, which I think is very very likely, or

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Speaker 2: there's been some sort of regime change that we don't

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Speaker 2: know about yet. But I think the Iranians are going

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Speaker 2: to reveal whatever they reveal in due course. And it

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Speaker 2: looks like there's six hundred kilos of enricher iranium was

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Speaker 2: inside for door. You remember there was all this reporting

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Speaker 2: that oh, they evacuated with it, but I think the

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Speaker 2: intelligence suggests it was actually sitting inside for Door.

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Speaker 1: And it's been buried in there.

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Speaker 2: And the kind of mainstream media claims that they did

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Speaker 2: no damage to Fedora absolute horseshit, Like all the damage

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Speaker 2: assessments from the Iranians, from Israelis and now from the

390
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Speaker 2: CIA say that you know, this stuff was very very

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Speaker 2: seriously damaged and has put the program back many many years.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, so macro is important, mate, as you know,

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Speaker 2: like you, I do it all grow your whole life.

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Speaker 1: But but I mean, what I find extraordinarily interesting is

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Speaker 1: working out the tell based on language. And it's not

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Speaker 1: just based on words, but it's based on timing. There

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Speaker 1: are probably a number of elements in these things. And

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Speaker 1: we look, we used to sort of do this with

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Speaker 1: the Reserve Bank and the Geroe Powells. Well he used

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Speaker 1: to always trying to sort of second guess what he

401
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Speaker 1: or she's going to do, and you know, set your

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Speaker 1: interest rates for example, and in my case at mees

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Speaker 1: rates ahead of a rate reduction, trying to get ahead

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Speaker 1: of her and get market share. It's a bit more

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Speaker 1: difficult today, but it's interesting in terms of the trades

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Speaker 1: that you do that you look at your user comp models,

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Speaker 1: but then you go off and you do your sort

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Speaker 1: of you know, your reasonable inness assessment, your overall assessment

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Speaker 1: based on what you see and where you see what

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Speaker 1: you hear? How many other things leading up to that?

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Speaker 1: And I'll get off this and see but this intreaues

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Speaker 1: me how many other things for example, for example, when

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Speaker 1: Trump was not available to talk to Albanizi and sort

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Speaker 1: of the meeting of the G seven, what it was

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Speaker 1: when Albanzi turned up, Trump sort of made himself unavailable.

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Speaker 1: Do you look at those things and also say, hang on,

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Speaker 1: something is big going on.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this signal with the noise wasn't just that. It

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Speaker 2: was the key for me where I thought, Okay, this

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Speaker 2: is really on. So we thought he'd bomb them that weekend,

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Speaker 2: even though he'd set the world up to think it

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Speaker 2: was two weeks away. Because he can't help himself again,

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Speaker 2: he wants to be a man in the middle. He

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Speaker 2: wants to be smarter than everyone else. And he is

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Speaker 2: freaking smart. Like he is serially underestimated. Like I'm one

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Speaker 2: hundred percent certain Trump is crazy smart guy. He's never drunk,

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Speaker 2: he's never done drugs. Yes, got all these hyperbolic and

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Speaker 2: other sort of you know for many people on savory characteristics,

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Speaker 2: but this dude is he's an absolute weapon.

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Speaker 1: Can we just get into that a little bit? Like,

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Speaker 1: as I I'm waiting before we did.

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Speaker 2: Let me answer your question, h because there was something interesting.

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Speaker 2: So he bolts from the G seven for his emergency

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Speaker 2: national security meetings. He has multiple multiple meetings over the

435
00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:20,960
Speaker 2: course of the weekend. But the thing that was really

436
00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:23,040
Speaker 2: interesting for me where I thought, Okay, we've really got

437
00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:25,919
Speaker 2: this right, was he's always giving presses, so he's always

438
00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:27,880
Speaker 2: talking the media. Every time he's in Force one, he's

439
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:34,200
Speaker 2: giving you basically a doorstop interview, and on this occasion,

440
00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:38,080
Speaker 2: to the National security meeting and from the National security meeting,

441
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:40,360
Speaker 2: he refused to talk to the media, and I thought,

442
00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:43,240
Speaker 2: that's different. So the accumulation of evidence, the fact that

443
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:45,199
Speaker 2: he once again tried to mislead the world about the

444
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 2: timetable and he wanted to be the smartest guy in

445
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:52,280
Speaker 2: the room, the fact that Israel had aerial superiority and

446
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:55,120
Speaker 2: it was a very easy mission to execute, the fact

447
00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:57,359
Speaker 2: that the GBU fifty sevens are really the only weapon

448
00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:00,800
Speaker 2: that can penetrate sixty meters of high performance contray concrete.

449
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:03,199
Speaker 2: And even then the GBU fifty sevens, which are the

450
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:06,840
Speaker 2: thirty pound bombs that they dropped on the tents and

451
00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:11,919
Speaker 2: for door fourteen of them twelve year, twelveteen. Yeah, but

452
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 2: even though they actually can't get through sixty meters of

453
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,400
Speaker 2: high performance concrete, so they drop them through the aerill sorry,

454
00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:21,639
Speaker 2: the air conditioning shafts, so the ventilation shafts, and so,

455
00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:26,120
Speaker 2: you know, for me, and also being a narcissist, I thought,

456
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 2: this is just such a perfect window of opportunity where

457
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:29,679
Speaker 2: he can come in. The Israelis have done all the

458
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:32,040
Speaker 2: heavy lifting. You know, they killed thirty generals, They've got

459
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 2: rid of all the air defenses, all the aircraft decimated.

460
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:37,480
Speaker 2: I ran, and he just comes over the top with

461
00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:43,159
Speaker 2: his seven, you know, deathly looking stealth B twenty B

462
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:47,560
Speaker 2: two raiders and finishes the Iranians off. And then so

463
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,040
Speaker 2: this is the Kamene puzzle that we still don't know

464
00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:54,920
Speaker 2: the answer to. He tweets out afterwards that the hit

465
00:23:55,960 --> 00:24:00,320
Speaker 2: quote unquote is what sealed the peace steal right says

466
00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:03,920
Speaker 2: like our raid on these nuclear sides and the hit,

467
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:07,359
Speaker 2: but he puts it in adverted commas sealed the piece. Still,

468
00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:11,119
Speaker 2: I reckon he was intimating to a Kamene hit. So

469
00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:15,159
Speaker 2: I think he's got the old double entendre going. And

470
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:17,040
Speaker 2: so the one hit was obviously the hit on the

471
00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:19,439
Speaker 2: nuclear sides. But the other hit was I think he

472
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:23,360
Speaker 2: knows that comedy's gone. It's also interesting, fascinating. Actually he

473
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:26,320
Speaker 2: called for regime change in Iran. He called for Migga

474
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:29,320
Speaker 2: makeer run great again. And then now when they've asked

475
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 2: him a war about regime change run, he say, oh,

476
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:32,960
Speaker 2: we don't need regime change in a run. You know,

477
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:34,920
Speaker 2: that would be chaos, That would be a huge one

478
00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:36,640
Speaker 2: for me. What he's actually saying is we've already had

479
00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:38,520
Speaker 2: regime change in a run. We're now dealing with the

480
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:39,479
Speaker 2: new guys and we're fine with that.

481
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:41,159
Speaker 1: That's very interesting. And why do you think that it

482
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:43,280
Speaker 1: hasn't been revealed here is because the Iranians just don't

483
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:43,920
Speaker 1: want to tell the world.

484
00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:45,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think they want to manage the optics. I mean,

485
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:48,439
Speaker 2: they've just had the worst twelve day war, you know,

486
00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:51,400
Speaker 2: arguably and ranks up there in the history of warfare.

487
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:53,879
Speaker 2: Is one of the most one sided conflicts ever. So

488
00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 2: you know, as a proud nation, they're obviously humiliated, and

489
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:02,120
Speaker 2: I think they I think it's also there's a real

490
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 2: problem in terms of geopolitical precedent with a nation state

491
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:10,040
Speaker 2: knocking off a national leader doesn't really happen often.

492
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:11,080
Speaker 1: It's very very rare.

493
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 2: So I think neither the Israelis nor the Americans really

494
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:17,880
Speaker 2: want to author that assassination, even though it's extremely likely

495
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 2: that he and his son and he's in he's wider

496
00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 2: family have all been assassinated because they were sitting in

497
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:26,040
Speaker 2: a bunker in northern Tehran. I think it's called Leversan

498
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:29,959
Speaker 2: the suburb and the Israelis and the Americans, I think

499
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:32,080
Speaker 2: we're pounding. Well, the Israelis were certainly pounding that bunker.

500
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:36,040
Speaker 2: Remember Trump came out and boasted on Twitter or truth

501
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:39,879
Speaker 2: social that he knew exactly where KEMANI was and we

502
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,960
Speaker 2: weren't going to kill him yet, right, We weren't going

503
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:44,680
Speaker 2: to We weren't going to take him out at this point.

504
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 1: But he You know, I could be wrong, but I

505
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:51,400
Speaker 1: think he's been taken out. That is, if I could

506
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:55,680
Speaker 1: just go one step further on their cynicism that some

507
00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:59,919
Speaker 1: people might suggest it's just cynicism. But in terms of timing,

508
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:02,760
Speaker 1: do you think the whole thing was time for his

509
00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:06,359
Speaker 1: arrival at NATO to sort of take control of NATO

510
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 1: as well, Because like, if I'm wanting to convince ever

511
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:11,280
Speaker 1: a NATO, you now spend five percent or three and

512
00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:13,639
Speaker 1: a half plus one and a half of your GDP

513
00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 1: on defense. But if I want to convince you, I

514
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:22,200
Speaker 1: wanted to show you that I can do what I

515
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 1: say I'm going to do. And I mean, do you

516
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:26,920
Speaker 1: think the whole thing was timed around this NATO? I

517
00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 1: think am I being super cinical here?

518
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:30,439
Speaker 2: I mean, I just take a step even further back.

519
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 2: I mean, it's extraordinary. This has been a multi decade

520
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:36,800
Speaker 2: problem for the world, dealing with a theocracy that is

521
00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:40,359
Speaker 2: hell bent on trying to evistrate America and Israel. I mean,

522
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:43,639
Speaker 2: it's a really serious problem. And that was also hellbent

523
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:48,280
Speaker 2: on weaponizing uranium and developing nuclear weapons that they could

524
00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:50,200
Speaker 2: potentially provide to the who he is and you know,

525
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:55,880
Speaker 2: theirs pro mass Hesbela. So this was a profound, multi

526
00:26:55,960 --> 00:27:02,720
Speaker 2: decade problem that George Bush, Obama, Clinton and Biden and

527
00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 2: Trump had never been up to resolve, and then one

528
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:09,679
Speaker 2: fell swoop. Trump has again superficially dealt with the problem now,

529
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:12,520
Speaker 2: but also in a very kinetic aggressive way, like sending

530
00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:15,480
Speaker 2: his seven stealth bombers and bombing these guys, you know,

531
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:19,359
Speaker 2: back into the dark ages. It's pretty full on. I

532
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:21,399
Speaker 2: had never thought about the NATO angle. I think you're right.

533
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:23,680
Speaker 2: I think he wanted to capitalize on that window. I

534
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:25,800
Speaker 2: had a naper Nator. But here's the next profound because it.

535
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:27,920
Speaker 1: Was literally a week after but mart and he normally,

536
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:29,879
Speaker 1: I mean, he's not going to go unless he controls it.

537
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 1: I mean, if you saw he sat, He's sat next

538
00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,320
Speaker 1: to the president of NATO, right next to him. And

539
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:37,399
Speaker 1: actually they changed the whole event for him, so they

540
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:39,840
Speaker 1: because he doesn't like to sit too long in those disations,

541
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:41,399
Speaker 1: so they actually said, okay, we're just going to have

542
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:43,159
Speaker 1: one on ones. That's pretty amazing.

543
00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:46,760
Speaker 2: But here's what's even more amazing is this guy, the

544
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:51,320
Speaker 2: celebrity apprentice star. He'll from a business partner, right, he

545
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:56,920
Speaker 2: has single handedly, single handedly changed European history, Like he

546
00:27:56,960 --> 00:28:01,120
Speaker 2: has reversed the course of European history by forcing these

547
00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 2: otherwise previously very dubbish from a military perspective, state, So

548
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:08,159
Speaker 2: we're spending nothing on defense to boost defense spending to

549
00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 2: five percent of GDP, I mean, that's extraordinary. That's sort

550
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 2: of in line with long term US defense spinning. But

551
00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 2: no one in the world spends that much on defense

552
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:19,600
Speaker 2: aside from America and China. Here in Australia, we're spending

553
00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:22,200
Speaker 2: less than half that, and we're an arguably.

554
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:24,000
Speaker 1: Just a small GDP relative everybody else.

555
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:28,160
Speaker 2: And we're arguably in a equally if not more precarious

556
00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:30,680
Speaker 2: position given our proximity to the south trying to see Taiwan.

557
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 2: But Trump has done this. No one else has done this.

558
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 2: You know, he was excoriated for you know, not being

559
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:41,960
Speaker 2: a multilaterist, and for threatening to withdraw from NATO, and

560
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:45,240
Speaker 2: for being you know, Pudin's bitch, and then Ella Mask's bitch,

561
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 2: and then China's bitch and North Korea's bitch. But actually

562
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:51,960
Speaker 2: he's There was some sort of interview I saw in

563
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 2: the last twenty four hours where apparently the American head

564
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:58,520
Speaker 2: of NATA referred to him as daddy and this is Trump.

565
00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:00,840
Speaker 2: But he's pretty, and he's the guy with the big

566
00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:03,520
Speaker 2: swinging dick, and he's a trigger puller, like he's a killer.

567
00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 1: And yeah, trump trade, the so called Trump trade, the

568
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:10,480
Speaker 1: taco trade, that was the other thing. So like he's

569
00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 1: absolutely blasted it.

570
00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:14,920
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, so you know Trump always chickens out the

571
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 2: taco trade trade. That was the other reason I thought

572
00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:18,640
Speaker 2: he'd go hard and go quickly.

573
00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 1: He wouldn't like that.

574
00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:22,080
Speaker 2: He would have hated the tarco trade and this taco

575
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:26,280
Speaker 2: trade was getting a huge amount of narrative or momentum,

576
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:30,480
Speaker 2: narrative momentum in the mainstream media, and that would have

577
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:33,320
Speaker 2: That's the antithesis of the way he sees himself. He

578
00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 2: sees himself as a hitter, right, and he is. He

579
00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 2: makes decisions, and he often changes his mind, but which

580
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:42,760
Speaker 2: is entitled to do right, Like, you know, he wages

581
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:45,160
Speaker 2: forever trade war and everyone and then he decides, you know,

582
00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:47,640
Speaker 2: a week and a half later that he'll do deals,

583
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:49,400
Speaker 2: but he won't do deal with deals with China. He's

584
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:51,400
Speaker 2: saying he'll do deals with China, but the reality is

585
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 2: they're decoupling right that manufacturing is coming home, and that's

586
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:56,560
Speaker 2: his key mission. He wants to square up the rest

587
00:29:56,560 --> 00:29:58,480
Speaker 2: of the world and make sure that people don't cheat

588
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 2: on trade. And I think that's a perfectly kind of

589
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:04,240
Speaker 2: reasonable ambition. But isn't it interesting that this guy that

590
00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:08,560
Speaker 2: has been dismissed by everybody as being you know, hypermiopic

591
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:14,480
Speaker 2: and just incapable of rational cojun deep strategic thought, this

592
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:21,240
Speaker 2: is the dude that is revolution revolutionizing the geostrategic environment

593
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:23,000
Speaker 2: in the Middle East and Europe.

594
00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:25,200
Speaker 1: I mean, it's extraordinary generary.

595
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:27,719
Speaker 2: He's aways been nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize as

596
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:30,960
Speaker 2: a result of the And not only does he bomb,

597
00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 2: you know, the Iranians into oblivion, but he is also

598
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 2: catalyzed and negotiated the ceasefire. And I presume now that

599
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:41,200
Speaker 2: Ukraine and Russia and the crosshairs, and he's kind of

600
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 2: started to create a lot of distance between himself and

601
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:45,800
Speaker 2: Putin because he's running around now saying, well, Puttin, offer

602
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 2: to mediate between Punaimi and said, I'll mediate between a

603
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 2: run and Israel. And he said, dude, you mediate your

604
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:54,320
Speaker 2: own war. My problems with you, mate, You're not meeting anything,

605
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:55,840
Speaker 2: mediating anything on my buff.

606
00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 1: He said this.

607
00:30:56,920 --> 00:31:00,360
Speaker 2: So it's interesting, and it's classically sort of he's a

608
00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:03,760
Speaker 2: preternatural businessman, like, you know, I take you at face

609
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:05,360
Speaker 2: value until I can't take you at face value. But

610
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:06,880
Speaker 2: when I can't take you at face value, I'm going

611
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:08,520
Speaker 2: to treat you differently. And that's the way Trump seems

612
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:08,760
Speaker 2: to work.

613
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:09,600
Speaker 1: It's very itederative.

614
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 2: We were talking about this before. He's massively adaptive, like

615
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 2: he's constantly iterating his business model or his mental model

616
00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 2: to adjust for the circumstances. You know, if people want

617
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:24,480
Speaker 2: to be you do handshake deals and principle based transactions.

618
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:26,959
Speaker 2: I can do that. But if they fuck me over, well,

619
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:29,400
Speaker 2: then I'll fuck them back five times harder and then

620
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:30,920
Speaker 2: we'll see, you know what the consequences are.

621
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 1: Just if I could just go flip back to because

622
00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 1: that stuffs fascinating in terms of someone being so strategic

623
00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:40,480
Speaker 1: and on their not on their own. Obviously you've got

624
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:42,360
Speaker 1: a team, but someone is so strategy and such a

625
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:43,920
Speaker 1: short period. He's had to be the president for like

626
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:47,040
Speaker 1: most of this year. So if I just tracked back

627
00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:51,320
Speaker 1: on one step bar in terms of the bringing manufacturing

628
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:53,560
Speaker 1: back to the United States and the point you just

629
00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:56,680
Speaker 1: may decoupling, maybe we could just spend a little bit

630
00:31:56,680 --> 00:31:59,640
Speaker 1: of time thinking about that, particularly in relation to interest rates,

631
00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 1: because in the US and the like, if we take

632
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:06,520
Speaker 1: what you just said is being correct, and I tend

633
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 1: to agree with I do agree with you, his constant

634
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:16,320
Speaker 1: belligerent behavior against the current Federal Reserve boss your own

635
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:20,880
Speaker 1: power would be indicative of a bigger strategy. Plant It's

636
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:22,760
Speaker 1: not just because he doesn't like him there's a Biggert

637
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 1: strategy plan. What is it that? Why do you think

638
00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:27,840
Speaker 1: he wants to get interest rates down in America irrespective

639
00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 1: and just take inflation out of it. Why is he

640
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:31,960
Speaker 1: trying to make money cheap in the United States? And

641
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 1: why does he want to do couple from China? And

642
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 1: why does why would he be happy for the US

643
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:38,480
Speaker 1: dollar to suffer as a result of that? There's some

644
00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:41,680
Speaker 1: obviously examples reasons for it, but maybe you could explain that,

645
00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:44,640
Speaker 1: you know, like they might manufacture, they need to export

646
00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 1: get better currency results. Why do you take us through that?

647
00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 2: So when you peel back the onion on Trumps, there's

648
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:54,719
Speaker 2: always a really lucid strategic clarity underpinning his decision making.

649
00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:56,840
Speaker 2: That's what I'm finding. And you know, I'm not a

650
00:32:57,160 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 2: trump ack lite. I didn't have strong views on him

651
00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:01,880
Speaker 2: in his first administration.

652
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:04,160
Speaker 1: Like he's different this time, Aroun one hundred percent.

653
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:06,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, And this is the keyp on is different, which

654
00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 2: doesn't normally happen. Like we've just elected our government. Our

655
00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:11,440
Speaker 2: bow is going to be exactly the same, charm is

656
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:13,880
Speaker 2: going to let me be the same. And presumably they're

657
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 2: in bolden because they think they have a mandate, so

658
00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 2: they're going to do more of the same. We're not

659
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:19,960
Speaker 2: going to see I doubt much iteration or evolution, other

660
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:21,880
Speaker 2: than them doubling down on whatever they were doing in

661
00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:23,480
Speaker 2: the past, which is spending a shitload of money and

662
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 2: crowding out the private sector, and government solving all of

663
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 2: our problems and tax reform, which will be interesting.

664
00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:34,160
Speaker 1: Right so I think.

665
00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:38,000
Speaker 2: So the Trump program is actually really simple, but it

666
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 2: is intricate. So part one is, okay, we set up

667
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 2: this free trade system after World War two and we

668
00:33:44,800 --> 00:33:48,880
Speaker 2: said we'll trade with anyone, and over the period since

669
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:51,760
Speaker 2: that time, we dropped all about tariffs and our trade subsidies.

670
00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 2: And the idea was if everyone trades on equal terms.

671
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 2: You know, Mark bills houses, Chris has a factory that

672
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:02,200
Speaker 2: produces close that's your pawer of advantage, that's my competitive advantage,

673
00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:04,600
Speaker 2: and we all benefit from trade and we're prosperous. And

674
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 2: that's the capitalist model, the Western liberal democratic model, which

675
00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:10,040
Speaker 2: worked incredibly well post World War two. But then, of

676
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 2: course some country started to cheat, like Australians to cheated.

677
00:34:12,760 --> 00:34:15,480
Speaker 2: We decided to subsidize the production of movies and we

678
00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:19,080
Speaker 2: start stealing investment from Hollywood. No one really talks about this,

679
00:34:19,200 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 2: but the reality is we've stolen a ton of investment

680
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:23,799
Speaker 2: from Hollywood. And then Trump turns around say's, actually, I'm

681
00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:25,959
Speaker 2: going to wa one hundred percent tariffs on any foreign

682
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:28,080
Speaker 2: made films. And we're like, oh, shock, how did you

683
00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 2: do that? But the truth is we just can't compete

684
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:32,800
Speaker 2: with Hollywood, and so we're cheating by getting government to

685
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:38,920
Speaker 2: kind of bonds, yeah, compensate for our deficiency. So he's like,

686
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:41,439
Speaker 2: we need to square everybody up globally. But the main

687
00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:45,360
Speaker 2: culprit here has been China. China has been treating cheating

688
00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:50,120
Speaker 2: relentlessly and also stealing an intellectual property and being very

689
00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:54,080
Speaker 2: strategic in trying to dominate key market sectors that have

690
00:34:54,920 --> 00:35:00,800
Speaker 2: long term geostrategic value, like telecommunications ext up with Huawei,

691
00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:05,279
Speaker 2: and so Trump's like, we've actually thought we were outsourcing

692
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 2: all of our manufacturing to a benign partner in China

693
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:10,239
Speaker 2: over the last thirty forty years, but actually they've ended

694
00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:12,480
Speaker 2: up with control of all of our supply chains, and

695
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:15,400
Speaker 2: the event of any kinetic conflict, we're really screwed. And

696
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:18,080
Speaker 2: the truth is now with automation AI and digital printing,

697
00:35:18,120 --> 00:35:20,360
Speaker 2: we can produce all this stuff at home, because obviously

698
00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:22,120
Speaker 2: Musk has been an influence in the background. You know,

699
00:35:22,200 --> 00:35:24,400
Speaker 2: Musk with SpaceX and with Tesla has proven you can

700
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:26,280
Speaker 2: build anything you want in an America and be well beating.

701
00:35:26,719 --> 00:35:26,880
Speaker 1: You know.

702
00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 2: He's got a monopoly in global satellite business more or less,

703
00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:34,520
Speaker 2: and he was dominant in the EV business until the

704
00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:36,760
Speaker 2: Chinese totle it all his IP and created a BYD

705
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:41,239
Speaker 2: and BYD started decimating Tesla. So so I think part

706
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:43,520
Speaker 2: one is he wants to get trade back on an

707
00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:47,040
Speaker 2: equal footing. Part two is unless you're a trusted counterparty,

708
00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 2: as in, if you're going to try and ask for

709
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:50,600
Speaker 2: US twenty four to seven and you're going to present

710
00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:54,759
Speaker 2: a serious, potentially existential military threat to US, as the

711
00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:57,239
Speaker 2: Chinese in his view, he's not going to trade with

712
00:35:57,239 --> 00:35:58,320
Speaker 2: you at all, and he's going to bring all that

713
00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:00,920
Speaker 2: investment home. So that's the game plan. To do that.

714
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 2: You need to have credible trade barriers and that investment

715
00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:07,680
Speaker 2: reassuring that home will create massive growth in the year.

716
00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:09,160
Speaker 2: So that's really positive the United States.

717
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:10,440
Speaker 1: Massive economic growth.

718
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:15,320
Speaker 2: Massive economic growth, but it also create capacity and that

719
00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:17,600
Speaker 2: all things being equal. On the one hand, the investment

720
00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:19,719
Speaker 2: could be inflationary, but the capacity could be deflactury. But

721
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:22,080
Speaker 2: just that's one part of his program. The second part

722
00:36:22,120 --> 00:36:24,200
Speaker 2: of his program is he wants to deliver about eight

723
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:26,719
Speaker 2: point one trillion tax cuts, massive tax cuts. He has

724
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:28,799
Speaker 2: to pay for them, and if he doesn't have money,

725
00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:30,799
Speaker 2: he's got to borrow the money, and that means he's

726
00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:33,080
Speaker 2: got to issue eight point one trillion dollars worth of

727
00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:35,919
Speaker 2: debt and that's going to push up long term interest

728
00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:38,080
Speaker 2: rates because people like me, the christ Joys the world

729
00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 2: are going to say, actually, Trumpy, I'm not going to

730
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:41,680
Speaker 2: lend you that money unless you pay me high rates.

731
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:43,839
Speaker 2: And that's generally what's happened in the US. Ten government

732
00:36:43,880 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 2: bond yield has risen from about three point six percent

733
00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:49,440
Speaker 2: in September last year to mid fours and people are

734
00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:54,239
Speaker 2: very worried about the global tsunami of government borrowing and

735
00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:56,920
Speaker 2: therefore the dead binge, partly because here in Australia, the

736
00:36:56,960 --> 00:36:58,759
Speaker 2: States and the Feds are spending crazy amounts of money.

737
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:02,200
Speaker 2: We've now our government has a share of our economy

738
00:37:02,840 --> 00:37:04,719
Speaker 2: is the biggest it's been since World War Two. Our

739
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:06,920
Speaker 2: government here in Australias accounted for two thirds of all

740
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:10,520
Speaker 2: economic growth since the pandemic and has accounted for more

741
00:37:10,560 --> 00:37:11,879
Speaker 2: than fifty percent of all jobs growth.

742
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:13,239
Speaker 1: And that's not your federal birth state now.

743
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 2: Federal and state, so that's Australia. Now Europeans are saying, well,

744
00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:18,600
Speaker 2: we're going to spend five percent of g to be

745
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:23,719
Speaker 2: having done Circle one to fund defense. So where they

746
00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:24,920
Speaker 2: going to get their money. They have to borrow the

747
00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:27,640
Speaker 2: money and massive amount of debt, which means it's actually

748
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:29,680
Speaker 2: perversely good for someone like Maye because it means I'm

749
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:31,480
Speaker 2: going to get great interest rates on those bonds, right,

750
00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:34,160
Speaker 2: so it means long term interstrates are going to stay high.

751
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:36,239
Speaker 2: But coming back to Trumpy, he wants people to pay

752
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:38,680
Speaker 2: a lot of taxes. I get that. In California, if

753
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:41,239
Speaker 2: you're a top income, your top producer, you pay more

754
00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:42,759
Speaker 2: than fifty to fifty five percent.

755
00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:45,919
Speaker 1: That's because you pay Californian text too, and federal text.

756
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:49,160
Speaker 2: And in New York you pay over fifty percent as well.

757
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:52,160
Speaker 2: But in Florida, where they're running budget surpluses and they're

758
00:37:52,239 --> 00:37:54,400
Speaker 2: running their finances really well, you only pay thirty eight

759
00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 2: percent total tax if you're a top income. So a

760
00:37:56,640 --> 00:37:58,719
Speaker 2: lot of people are moving from New York and California

761
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:00,399
Speaker 2: down to Texas where you have the same think thirty

762
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:04,640
Speaker 2: eight percent top tax, and Florida. And so the US

763
00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 2: has had this cathartic internal conflict that's created the huge

764
00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:12,840
Speaker 2: intense debate between the Republicans and the Democrats because they're

765
00:38:12,840 --> 00:38:17,680
Speaker 2: seeing economic mayhem and social mayhem in California, particularly San

766
00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:22,600
Speaker 2: Francisco kind of failing city, California, fault state, massive budget deficits,

767
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:25,080
Speaker 2: sort of on the brink of insolvency. And then they're

768
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:28,279
Speaker 2: seeing the counterfaction, which is Florida and Texas, budget surpluses,

769
00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:32,680
Speaker 2: crime under control, generally, business thriving and flourishing. And that's

770
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:35,960
Speaker 2: I think what's galvanized the momentum behind Trump's program. So

771
00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:38,279
Speaker 2: he wants to get taxes low. He's got to fund

772
00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:40,000
Speaker 2: them to do that. He's got to get rid of

773
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:43,240
Speaker 2: big government. Specifically, he's got a shrink government by fifteen percent.

774
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:45,600
Speaker 2: It's not that much. If he does that, he gets

775
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 2: about a trillion a year in savings, and that fully

776
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:50,920
Speaker 2: pays for the tax cuts. Now, if you shrink government

777
00:38:51,120 --> 00:38:53,440
Speaker 2: and you cut government spending by fifteen percent or a

778
00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 2: trillion a year, that's deflationary. Because all that money a

779
00:38:56,160 --> 00:38:59,400
Speaker 2: trullion year was going out there to contractors, builders, you know,

780
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:02,439
Speaker 2: service providers and government employees. Now are spending that money.

781
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:05,800
Speaker 2: That demand goes, So that's deflation and that creates job losses.

782
00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:08,640
Speaker 2: On the other hand, the tax cuts, tax cuts are

783
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:11,080
Speaker 2: inflationing because that's more money in people's pockets they can

784
00:39:11,160 --> 00:39:14,880
Speaker 2: spend that. And then clearly the returning all the supply

785
00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:17,719
Speaker 2: chains back to America, so reassuring the manufacturing, getting this

786
00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:20,600
Speaker 2: massive manufacturing boom in the US, which I think will happen.

787
00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:23,520
Speaker 2: It'll happen much faster than people think over the next

788
00:39:23,560 --> 00:39:26,880
Speaker 2: few years. That's also inflationy. But the key point is

789
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 2: the Fed things are normal ingstraate it's three percent. They're

790
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:31,200
Speaker 2: currently at four and a quarter to four and a half.

791
00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:35,400
Speaker 2: Inflation has been pretty benign. Tariffs will push up inflation temporarily,

792
00:39:35,640 --> 00:39:38,120
Speaker 2: but it'll pass through the data like a pig through

793
00:39:38,120 --> 00:39:41,320
Speaker 2: a python. And here and now the Fed should be

794
00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:43,640
Speaker 2: cutting now. Trump is right about power, So this is

795
00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 2: where the signal and the noise is. Power's a bit

796
00:39:45,600 --> 00:39:47,920
Speaker 2: of a dickhead. Okay, I shouldn't probably say that, but

797
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:51,000
Speaker 2: I'll tell you he was very political prior to and

798
00:39:51,120 --> 00:39:53,720
Speaker 2: during the U S election, So he was pulling super

799
00:39:53,800 --> 00:39:55,719
Speaker 2: hard for Biden and Harris, and they were cutting when

800
00:39:55,719 --> 00:39:57,839
Speaker 2: they shouldn't have been cutting. As I argued at the time.

801
00:39:58,160 --> 00:40:00,279
Speaker 2: As soon as Trump was elected, they stopped cutting. They

802
00:40:00,320 --> 00:40:01,840
Speaker 2: cut once more in descemi've basically they said we're not

803
00:40:01,840 --> 00:40:03,759
Speaker 2: going to do any more cuts. They haven't cut since.

804
00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:06,000
Speaker 2: And he's been quite reckless in the way that he's

805
00:40:06,040 --> 00:40:10,319
Speaker 2: been talking about, for example, the tariffs. He's been trying

806
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 2: to maximize financial market volatively. He's been trying to sheet

807
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 2: home as much blame to Trump for the tariffs, even

808
00:40:17,200 --> 00:40:19,920
Speaker 2: though the tariffs in and of themselves are necessary and

809
00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:24,320
Speaker 2: reasonable because everyone the world's been cheating and stealing American

810
00:40:26,239 --> 00:40:30,120
Speaker 2: sort of basically stealing their prosperity, particularly the Chinese, anyone

811
00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:32,239
Speaker 2: who hasn't been trading on fair terms, and he's just

812
00:40:32,320 --> 00:40:34,720
Speaker 2: trying to square them up. So you do need tariffs

813
00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:37,480
Speaker 2: of some sort to rewrite big global economy. But the

814
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:40,840
Speaker 2: ultimate endgame is we're going to have multiple trading blocks.

815
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:44,400
Speaker 2: We're going to have the non democratic authoritarian states, the Chinas,

816
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:47,720
Speaker 2: the Irans, the Russias and North Koreas trading with themselves

817
00:40:47,760 --> 00:40:49,560
Speaker 2: and probably some African and Asian nations, and then you

818
00:40:49,640 --> 00:40:52,920
Speaker 2: have the Western liberal democracies. But you can see this

819
00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:55,120
Speaker 2: is a big juggling tax cuts on the one hand,

820
00:40:55,200 --> 00:41:00,600
Speaker 2: cutting government spending on the other hand, reassuring some applight chains,

821
00:41:01,480 --> 00:41:04,120
Speaker 2: and then issuing potentially a lot of debt if you

822
00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:06,759
Speaker 2: can't if you can't get the government spending changes, he

823
00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:07,960
Speaker 2: will have to issue a lot of debt. And this

824
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:09,960
Speaker 2: comes back to the FED. The feeds at four and

825
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:12,440
Speaker 2: a half percent. Inflation in the US has been benign.

826
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:15,680
Speaker 2: Normal is three. So what Trump is saying, you should

827
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:17,560
Speaker 2: be closer to three, and you should be moving towards three,

828
00:41:17,800 --> 00:41:18,719
Speaker 2: and they haven't been doing.

829
00:41:18,760 --> 00:41:22,080
Speaker 1: And we America in the country as a as a borrower,

830
00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:24,480
Speaker 1: as a borrower, could be paying a lot less interest

831
00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:26,719
Speaker 1: exactly if you reduce the rate.

832
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:29,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the one liner. The one liner is the

833
00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:32,200
Speaker 2: Americans have a lot of government debt. Potentially that government

834
00:41:32,200 --> 00:41:34,280
Speaker 2: debt is going to increase unless they crush government spending.

835
00:41:34,480 --> 00:41:36,279
Speaker 2: So Trump wants to get the interest right down on

836
00:41:36,360 --> 00:41:38,000
Speaker 2: that government debt. And one way to do that is

837
00:41:38,040 --> 00:41:39,960
Speaker 2: definitely try and get the Fed to cut But I

838
00:41:40,040 --> 00:41:43,560
Speaker 2: think intellectually he's right, the FED should be cutting I mean,

839
00:41:43,600 --> 00:41:46,520
Speaker 2: I think the FED should be cutting right now. It's

840
00:41:46,560 --> 00:41:48,399
Speaker 2: not that they should put rates at a really low level,

841
00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:50,840
Speaker 2: but they should probably be getting closer to neutral and

842
00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:52,520
Speaker 2: their way. I mean, they're miles away from neutro at

843
00:41:52,520 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 2: four and a quarter to four and a half neutral three.

844
00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:56,239
Speaker 2: They should be much closer to three. And I think,

845
00:41:56,880 --> 00:41:59,040
Speaker 2: you know, he's had it with power, and so he's

846
00:41:59,160 --> 00:42:01,520
Speaker 2: latest I think movies to say, you know what, I'm

847
00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:06,480
Speaker 2: going to appoint your successor or naming name your successor exactly,

848
00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:10,799
Speaker 2: and then that will completely undermine powers authority, and power

849
00:42:10,840 --> 00:42:13,360
Speaker 2: will be forced now to contend with an internal replacement

850
00:42:14,040 --> 00:42:15,880
Speaker 2: that he will have to to some extent reflect the

851
00:42:15,880 --> 00:42:18,840
Speaker 2: will of So so it's all really interesting and the

852
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:22,160
Speaker 2: world's definitely a more safe and stable place post Trump

853
00:42:22,239 --> 00:42:25,280
Speaker 2: Bombinger run, just make no mistake about that. Like, everyone

854
00:42:25,320 --> 00:42:27,200
Speaker 2: feels better about the Middle East. The Saudis are happy,

855
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:29,880
Speaker 2: the Syrians are happy, the Jordanians are very happy, the

856
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:31,080
Speaker 2: Israelis are happy.

857
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:31,640
Speaker 1: The Emirates happy.

858
00:42:32,200 --> 00:42:37,160
Speaker 2: The Emirates are very happy. Happy, everyone's even Qatar and Oman,

859
00:42:37,320 --> 00:42:41,080
Speaker 2: which you know have had close ties to a run. Yeah,

860
00:42:41,280 --> 00:42:45,879
Speaker 2: they're probably neutral to positive. So so you know, one

861
00:42:45,920 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 2: guy's done this and it's just quite amazing.

862
00:42:48,320 --> 00:42:50,120
Speaker 1: It's amazing, It is quite amazing because.

863
00:42:50,239 --> 00:42:52,120
Speaker 2: We don't have leadership like that in this country. Mate.

864
00:42:52,200 --> 00:42:54,640
Speaker 2: Well yeah, but like you should run for office, thanks

865
00:42:54,719 --> 00:42:55,040
Speaker 2: very much.

866
00:42:55,239 --> 00:42:59,680
Speaker 1: So let's just bueld it back. You should do something. Yeah, well,

867
00:43:00,480 --> 00:43:02,200
Speaker 1: you can't run for office in this country. The problem

868
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:03,560
Speaker 1: is in this country. You can in the US, but

869
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 1: you can't in this country. In this country got to

870
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:07,800
Speaker 1: being a party. The party's got to win or be

871
00:43:07,840 --> 00:43:10,680
Speaker 1: able to do deals with somebody else and have a coalition,

872
00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:12,279
Speaker 1: so to speak. And then you're going to be by

873
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:14,719
Speaker 1: your party voted in to be the dute And that's

874
00:43:14,760 --> 00:43:17,120
Speaker 1: the problem in this country. That's the issue around that.

875
00:43:17,200 --> 00:43:19,080
Speaker 1: I mean, it's fraught with danger. If I could just

876
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:22,560
Speaker 1: peel it back then. So relative to anyone who's listening

877
00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:24,960
Speaker 1: to this, who's interested in interest rates and prosperity here

878
00:43:25,000 --> 00:43:27,400
Speaker 1: in Australia, which by the way, is that the RBA

879
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:32,280
Speaker 1: is that mandate you know, welfare and prosperity of all Australians,

880
00:43:32,320 --> 00:43:36,720
Speaker 1: by the way, which is the terminology in its mandate.

881
00:43:37,840 --> 00:43:40,840
Speaker 1: What do you think all this means for Australia. So

882
00:43:41,160 --> 00:43:43,560
Speaker 1: I'm not going to talk just put interest rates aside

883
00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:45,360
Speaker 1: for the moment. What do you think this means for

884
00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:47,839
Speaker 1: US just as a nation? What's happening in the US.

885
00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:51,080
Speaker 2: I'm actually loath to kind of talk about it because

886
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:55,279
Speaker 2: I've got some pretty serious concerns and fears short term,

887
00:43:56,400 --> 00:43:58,440
Speaker 2: like we're spinning like drunken salors. So all that a

888
00:43:58,560 --> 00:44:02,239
Speaker 2: government levels, at government levels, all that public money from

889
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:04,040
Speaker 2: the states and the fairs, is going to mean that

890
00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:05,840
Speaker 2: growth in austral is going to be good and the

891
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:08,040
Speaker 2: economy will look good, will look good. Economy is going

892
00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:09,799
Speaker 2: to be totally fine because the government will be powering

893
00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:10,560
Speaker 2: that growth well.

894
00:44:10,480 --> 00:44:13,239
Speaker 1: In terms of dudyp measurement. Correct, Yeah, but that doesn't

895
00:44:13,239 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 1: mean it's good.

896
00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:14,040
Speaker 2: It doesn't.

897
00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:15,920
Speaker 1: If we go to look at private sectors part it's

898
00:44:16,040 --> 00:44:16,480
Speaker 1: not so good.

899
00:44:16,560 --> 00:44:19,479
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's abysmal. And then we've also got super strong

900
00:44:19,560 --> 00:44:21,360
Speaker 2: population growth and a lot of these new immigrants have

901
00:44:21,440 --> 00:44:24,000
Speaker 2: voted for labor and so that's going to continue and

902
00:44:24,000 --> 00:44:25,799
Speaker 2: it's putting a lot of pressure on cities. But as

903
00:44:25,840 --> 00:44:27,959
Speaker 2: far as the economic data's concerned, people come to the country,

904
00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:30,920
Speaker 2: they spend money. That's positive in the long run. I mean,

905
00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:31,760
Speaker 2: we're really screwed.

906
00:44:31,920 --> 00:44:33,880
Speaker 1: Do you think it's your musing? Okay, do you think

907
00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:37,960
Speaker 1: GDP today is a poor measurement of how well we're

908
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:40,080
Speaker 1: doing because it can be manipulated.

909
00:44:39,920 --> 00:44:42,399
Speaker 2: Yes, one hundred percent can be manipulated. I mean it's

910
00:44:42,640 --> 00:44:48,480
Speaker 2: a measurement. It's a very carefully measured proxy for the

911
00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:52,040
Speaker 2: rate of change in output over time. But I mean

912
00:44:52,400 --> 00:44:54,480
Speaker 2: what I'm focused on is productivity and what that means

913
00:44:54,560 --> 00:44:57,280
Speaker 2: is output for our work, So how much we produce

914
00:44:57,360 --> 00:44:59,080
Speaker 2: for the amount of time we put into it. And

915
00:44:59,320 --> 00:45:02,280
Speaker 2: on that basis, Australia. Australia looks terrible. I mean, we're

916
00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:06,279
Speaker 2: on a productivity basis, labor productivity in total what's called

917
00:45:06,360 --> 00:45:08,600
Speaker 2: multi factor productivity, but basically.

918
00:45:08,680 --> 00:45:11,240
Speaker 1: Whether you've gone backwards MFP, Yeah, it's gone backwards.

919
00:45:11,239 --> 00:45:13,040
Speaker 2: So if whether you look at broad productivity or just

920
00:45:13,120 --> 00:45:18,480
Speaker 2: labor productivity, what you see as Australia's productivity performance has

921
00:45:18,640 --> 00:45:21,360
Speaker 2: not really improved over a quarter of a century, and

922
00:45:21,719 --> 00:45:24,919
Speaker 2: we're lagging Europe, We're lagging by long way the US,

923
00:45:25,600 --> 00:45:27,399
Speaker 2: and we're going to end up Asia as of etha.

924
00:45:27,480 --> 00:45:30,400
Speaker 2: We're going to be a beach resort for rich members

925
00:45:30,440 --> 00:45:34,879
Speaker 2: of the literati in the Indo Pacific region. And it's

926
00:45:34,960 --> 00:45:36,880
Speaker 2: okay for the short term, it's okay probably for the

927
00:45:36,920 --> 00:45:38,839
Speaker 2: next five, ten to fifteen years, but eventually for our

928
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:42,320
Speaker 2: children's children, it's going to be a massive problem and

929
00:45:43,239 --> 00:45:45,600
Speaker 2: we won't produce anything. There won't be any entrepreneurship, any

930
00:45:45,640 --> 00:45:49,759
Speaker 2: real innovation, and then living standards will start to decay signif.

931
00:45:49,800 --> 00:45:51,759
Speaker 1: Have but not significantly, I guess because one of the

932
00:45:51,800 --> 00:45:53,680
Speaker 1: things I found quite fascinating the other day when I

933
00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:55,759
Speaker 1: was looking at capital investments, So in other words, the

934
00:45:55,760 --> 00:45:58,480
Speaker 1: amount of money that gets reinvested by not any prophecies,

935
00:45:58,520 --> 00:46:01,520
Speaker 1: but also by the government in terms of how efficient,

936
00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:06,000
Speaker 1: how efficient I should say, employees can be for example,

937
00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:09,120
Speaker 1: you know the verious tools that employees can use to

938
00:46:09,200 --> 00:46:13,040
Speaker 1: be much more productive. Our cabin investments like at an

939
00:46:13,080 --> 00:46:19,920
Speaker 1: all time low. As you just mentioned. Our productivity relatively speaking,

940
00:46:20,000 --> 00:46:22,799
Speaker 1: has been in terms of normal measurements is ridiculously loan

941
00:46:23,200 --> 00:46:25,520
Speaker 1: as probably the worst it's been for a long long time.

942
00:46:26,120 --> 00:46:28,600
Speaker 1: But what a really fascinating is a sent about eighty

943
00:46:28,640 --> 00:46:31,040
Speaker 1: percent of our productivity is coming from services sector. It

944
00:46:31,040 --> 00:46:34,719
Speaker 1: doesn't come out of product products actual products, So eighty

945
00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:37,560
Speaker 1: percent and becaurse I'm not having here having to go

946
00:46:37,640 --> 00:46:39,720
Speaker 1: at you, Jimlake, but you know, when you keep putting

947
00:46:39,719 --> 00:46:42,000
Speaker 1: people long into public service and not having our public

948
00:46:42,000 --> 00:46:44,640
Speaker 1: servance side because as a space for public service saying

949
00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:49,799
Speaker 1: can be wrong. But the more times you just keep

950
00:46:50,040 --> 00:46:53,680
Speaker 1: loading up the employment number, well then I'm employed as

951
00:46:53,719 --> 00:46:55,480
Speaker 1: a result of all the people you bring into the country.

952
00:46:55,840 --> 00:46:57,920
Speaker 1: The more times you can continue to do that, you're

953
00:46:58,000 --> 00:47:01,680
Speaker 1: just building up this services sector which by definition, generally speaking,

954
00:47:01,760 --> 00:47:03,840
Speaker 1: isn't that productive. So as a result of that, the

955
00:47:04,120 --> 00:47:07,640
Speaker 1: productive productivity of the country is very very low. Opposite

956
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:10,160
Speaker 1: in the United States, opposite in Germany, and heavily with

957
00:47:10,200 --> 00:47:13,640
Speaker 1: the amount of capital that Germany and the US have reinvested,

958
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:17,759
Speaker 1: we aren't investing anything into our public service in terms

959
00:47:17,800 --> 00:47:19,560
Speaker 1: of making them more efficient and therefore more production.

960
00:47:19,680 --> 00:47:21,799
Speaker 2: You're exactly right, Mark, It's interesting, Well, not only we're

961
00:47:21,840 --> 00:47:25,839
Speaker 2: not really producing anything in Australia like tangible goods, that's

962
00:47:25,840 --> 00:47:30,279
Speaker 2: all been offshore, but we're not actually investing in technology

963
00:47:30,360 --> 00:47:32,480
Speaker 2: or soft capital investment. Yeah, but we're not investing in

964
00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:35,080
Speaker 2: technology to support our services.

965
00:47:35,160 --> 00:47:36,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, correct, that's what I'm saying. We're just saying, go

966
00:47:37,040 --> 00:47:39,520
Speaker 1: into the job, so people working longer hours, more hours,

967
00:47:40,160 --> 00:47:42,560
Speaker 1: but they're not working more efficiently and they're more productive.

968
00:47:42,640 --> 00:47:44,200
Speaker 2: So it doesn't matter hay sliced, does it. Whether you

969
00:47:44,239 --> 00:47:45,880
Speaker 2: look at research and development, whether you look at the

970
00:47:45,920 --> 00:47:49,600
Speaker 2: amount of money that firms are investing in technology, software

971
00:47:50,560 --> 00:47:54,920
Speaker 2: and tools to make their employees more productive, whether you

972
00:47:54,960 --> 00:47:57,920
Speaker 2: look at overall capital spending, labor productivity, which is bismal,

973
00:47:58,040 --> 00:48:02,120
Speaker 2: total productivity terrible. It's just a disaster, and we're kind

974
00:48:02,160 --> 00:48:05,320
Speaker 2: of just kicking the can down the road by bringing

975
00:48:05,600 --> 00:48:07,719
Speaker 2: massive amounts of people in the country to grow through

976
00:48:07,800 --> 00:48:12,080
Speaker 2: population growth, and by borrowing from the future and spending today.

977
00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:15,799
Speaker 2: You know, a country, a state like Victoria just prior

978
00:48:15,840 --> 00:48:18,440
Speaker 2: to the pandemic in twenty nineteen, I think owed the

979
00:48:18,480 --> 00:48:21,439
Speaker 2: world forty five to fifty billion. Within a few years

980
00:48:21,840 --> 00:48:25,000
Speaker 2: Victoria owed the world close to three hundred billion. And

981
00:48:26,040 --> 00:48:28,879
Speaker 2: it's interesting. I saw Peter Thiel in the last twenty

982
00:48:28,920 --> 00:48:30,520
Speaker 2: four hours came out and said that he thinks the

983
00:48:30,680 --> 00:48:34,719
Speaker 2: reason that millennials have sort of pivoted to a hard

984
00:48:34,880 --> 00:48:37,160
Speaker 2: left political direction is they've got a lot of student

985
00:48:37,239 --> 00:48:40,160
Speaker 2: debt and they can't afford to buy a home, so

986
00:48:40,239 --> 00:48:43,240
Speaker 2: they're looking for the public sector to provide that panacea

987
00:48:43,280 --> 00:48:46,800
Speaker 2: to that solution. And I definitely, you know, notice it

988
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:50,200
Speaker 2: when I speak to the younger generations that worked for us,

989
00:48:51,239 --> 00:48:54,120
Speaker 2: a lot of them voted labor and which is not

990
00:48:54,200 --> 00:48:57,640
Speaker 2: a bad thing, Jim. I'm not party political. I don't

991
00:48:57,640 --> 00:49:01,000
Speaker 2: really care. I just want solutions. But but it is

992
00:49:01,120 --> 00:49:03,800
Speaker 2: interesting I think people, and particularly in a very entitled

993
00:49:03,960 --> 00:49:07,680
Speaker 2: place and economy like Australia, where you've had just like

994
00:49:07,840 --> 00:49:09,840
Speaker 2: you've been hit on the ass by every golden rainbow,

995
00:49:09,880 --> 00:49:13,560
Speaker 2: imaginable well beating population growth, world beating endowments of commodities

996
00:49:13,560 --> 00:49:17,240
Speaker 2: and natural resources and now you know, mega public spending

997
00:49:17,320 --> 00:49:19,880
Speaker 2: and the absence of a bona fidi recession since nineteen

998
00:49:19,960 --> 00:49:24,320
Speaker 2: ninety one. You know, people have just become accustomed to

999
00:49:24,440 --> 00:49:29,120
Speaker 2: expect these solutions to be perveyed to them. And I

1000
00:49:29,160 --> 00:49:31,880
Speaker 2: think that's the problem. So Asias of bethro is the

1001
00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:35,040
Speaker 2: direction in which we're heading a beach resort for the

1002
00:49:35,080 --> 00:49:37,840
Speaker 2: well held of the region. And I think it's a

1003
00:49:37,920 --> 00:49:39,560
Speaker 2: huge problem. But what can we do about it in

1004
00:49:39,600 --> 00:49:42,680
Speaker 2: the meantime? In the short term, and everyone's so myopic

1005
00:49:42,719 --> 00:49:44,560
Speaker 2: and hedonistic. In the short term, everything's going to be fine.

1006
00:49:44,560 --> 00:49:46,400
Speaker 2: In Australia like rate's going to come down. The rbable

1007
00:49:46,400 --> 00:49:48,319
Speaker 2: to cut three times this year. The cash read will

1008
00:49:48,320 --> 00:49:50,000
Speaker 2: go to three percent. It's currently a three point eight

1009
00:49:50,040 --> 00:49:53,080
Speaker 2: five percent. House prices are starting having been very weak

1010
00:49:53,120 --> 00:49:55,080
Speaker 2: in Sydney and Melbourne, house prices we're falling in twenty

1011
00:49:55,120 --> 00:49:57,680
Speaker 2: twenty four. House prices are rising at a decent clip,

1012
00:49:57,760 --> 00:50:01,280
Speaker 2: not a crazy clip, but we'll get a very robust

1013
00:50:01,360 --> 00:50:02,680
Speaker 2: housing recovery, which is good.

1014
00:50:02,880 --> 00:50:05,839
Speaker 1: Do you subscribe to the View you rate reductions house

1015
00:50:05,880 --> 00:50:06,560
Speaker 1: price increases?

1016
00:50:06,640 --> 00:50:09,960
Speaker 2: Of course? Yeah, Well it's not, it's an empirical fact.

1017
00:50:10,280 --> 00:50:13,040
Speaker 2: I know my esteemed mate he does not.

1018
00:50:13,280 --> 00:50:15,440
Speaker 1: I saw I saw something of on next recently. He

1019
00:50:15,840 --> 00:50:16,880
Speaker 1: doesn't subscribe to View.

1020
00:50:17,560 --> 00:50:20,200
Speaker 2: It's just wrong. I mean it affis purchasing power. The

1021
00:50:20,320 --> 00:50:24,680
Speaker 2: only way interest rates coming down directly and very materially

1022
00:50:24,840 --> 00:50:27,719
Speaker 2: change the amount of debt that you can afford.

1023
00:50:27,520 --> 00:50:29,920
Speaker 1: To assume, and it goes straight into the property.

1024
00:50:30,120 --> 00:50:34,239
Speaker 2: And therefore interest rates coming down directly impact the value

1025
00:50:34,239 --> 00:50:38,000
Speaker 2: of the property that you can purchase. Nothing formula, and

1026
00:50:38,080 --> 00:50:40,520
Speaker 2: it gets capitalized into prices and the only thing that

1027
00:50:40,560 --> 00:50:43,439
Speaker 2: can change that is supply. Yeah, and so you produce

1028
00:50:43,520 --> 00:50:46,720
Speaker 2: more houses. But you know, we can't change supply instantaneously.

1029
00:50:46,800 --> 00:50:49,320
Speaker 2: That's a multi year process. So the supply side, so

1030
00:50:49,480 --> 00:50:51,640
Speaker 2: you know, in the long run, the supply side should

1031
00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:55,759
Speaker 2: react to those changes in demand that are a function

1032
00:50:55,840 --> 00:50:58,160
Speaker 2: of changes in interest rates. But there's no doubt that

1033
00:50:58,520 --> 00:51:01,520
Speaker 2: house prices are highly interest rate sensitive. And it's not

1034
00:51:01,600 --> 00:51:03,120
Speaker 2: a bad thing. I mean, this is what the NBA.

1035
00:51:03,239 --> 00:51:05,839
Speaker 2: This is called the transmission mechanism. The RBA cuts rates,

1036
00:51:06,760 --> 00:51:12,040
Speaker 2: that reduces borrowing costs, and that shows up in the

1037
00:51:12,120 --> 00:51:17,800
Speaker 2: form of more discretionary disposable income, higher house prices. So

1038
00:51:17,920 --> 00:51:20,200
Speaker 2: the housing market is a key channel through which monetary

1039
00:51:20,239 --> 00:51:25,600
Speaker 2: policy provides it bequeaths that economic relief to the broader community.

1040
00:51:26,040 --> 00:51:26,839
Speaker 2: It's not a bad thing.

1041
00:51:26,920 --> 00:51:30,720
Speaker 1: But yeah, there's a lot of power for our monetary

1042
00:51:30,760 --> 00:51:34,799
Speaker 1: policy too. We observe during the rate rise period because

1043
00:51:34,920 --> 00:51:38,279
Speaker 1: most trainers are on fixed on verable rates, but during

1044
00:51:38,440 --> 00:51:41,280
Speaker 1: a rate reduction period, that verbal rate is pretty valuable

1045
00:51:41,719 --> 00:51:44,839
Speaker 1: and it actually reflects in the purchase purchasing power. As

1046
00:51:44,880 --> 00:51:48,360
Speaker 1: as you said, it's amazing, it's actually just as solid

1047
00:51:48,440 --> 00:51:50,120
Speaker 1: on the way down as it is on the way up.

1048
00:51:50,239 --> 00:51:51,800
Speaker 2: Well, I'll tell you this, and i'd say this to Kookie.

1049
00:51:52,160 --> 00:51:54,480
Speaker 2: Doubt Cookie's got to this, well, maybe has got to

1050
00:51:54,560 --> 00:51:56,360
Speaker 2: this part of the interview. But if you look at

1051
00:51:56,400 --> 00:51:59,120
Speaker 2: the daily Cooreo Logic house price indexes that I helped

1052
00:51:59,200 --> 00:52:02,200
Speaker 2: co create, they're published on College Week's website. You can

1053
00:52:02,200 --> 00:52:03,920
Speaker 2: see them every day, and you hit the back series

1054
00:52:04,000 --> 00:52:06,720
Speaker 2: tab on the core Logic website and you dis select

1055
00:52:06,760 --> 00:52:08,480
Speaker 2: every city except for Sydney. What you'll see is that

1056
00:52:08,520 --> 00:52:11,400
Speaker 2: Sydney prices were falling until the middle of Februar this

1057
00:52:11,520 --> 00:52:16,319
Speaker 2: year cuts rates. Literally the same week they cut rates,

1058
00:52:16,560 --> 00:52:19,319
Speaker 2: house prices turned one hundred and eight degrees, started rising again,

1059
00:52:19,920 --> 00:52:22,279
Speaker 2: and then rose and rose and rose, and then they

1060
00:52:22,360 --> 00:52:25,120
Speaker 2: started to stabilize a little bit until May. When May

1061
00:52:25,239 --> 00:52:27,239
Speaker 2: came along, we got the cut and they went off

1062
00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:30,880
Speaker 2: again to the races. So there's you know, it's unambiguously

1063
00:52:30,960 --> 00:52:33,600
Speaker 2: the case that prices are very responsive to changes in

1064
00:52:33,680 --> 00:52:38,040
Speaker 2: the purchasing power of those properties, which is governed by incomes.

1065
00:52:38,719 --> 00:52:41,960
Speaker 1: And income is fixed, but the amount of money you

1066
00:52:41,960 --> 00:52:45,359
Speaker 1: can borrow is variable. Because correct interest rates goes down,

1067
00:52:45,440 --> 00:52:46,960
Speaker 1: you can borrow more money. That's what we do. We

1068
00:52:47,080 --> 00:52:49,680
Speaker 1: lend you more money if because when we do our calculation,

1069
00:52:49,760 --> 00:52:52,080
Speaker 1: your debt servicing ability is far greater because the interest

1070
00:52:52,120 --> 00:52:54,080
Speaker 1: rate we assume you're going to pay is much lower.

1071
00:52:55,640 --> 00:52:57,520
Speaker 2: I actually want to ask you a question, like, you've

1072
00:52:57,680 --> 00:53:00,080
Speaker 2: had a bit to do with Trump yourself back the

1073
00:53:00,160 --> 00:53:03,240
Speaker 2: day when he was the gregarious entrepreneur and he's political,

1074
00:53:03,600 --> 00:53:06,040
Speaker 2: he wasn't in that political decision making mode. But I

1075
00:53:06,160 --> 00:53:08,040
Speaker 2: remember asking you about this years ago. I actually can't

1076
00:53:08,040 --> 00:53:09,880
Speaker 2: remember your response. So what was he like?

1077
00:53:10,200 --> 00:53:11,960
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, but the thing I've had a trumpes is

1078
00:53:12,080 --> 00:53:17,879
Speaker 1: very purposeful. So he knew everything he was doing, down

1079
00:53:17,960 --> 00:53:22,200
Speaker 1: to the most minute detail, how he dressed, how he

1080
00:53:22,280 --> 00:53:25,000
Speaker 1: addressed the camera, what we talked about. Because I interviewed

1081
00:53:25,320 --> 00:53:28,919
Speaker 1: interviewed him. I spent like forty five minutes interviewing him. Yeah, yeah,

1082
00:53:29,480 --> 00:53:32,799
Speaker 1: we did a live TV interview, Yeah, one online which

1083
00:53:32,800 --> 00:53:34,239
Speaker 1: I'm trying to call you but I can't find it.

1084
00:53:34,600 --> 00:53:39,840
Speaker 1: But it's his purposefulness in relation to his answers and

1085
00:53:40,040 --> 00:53:42,560
Speaker 1: everything he tracks and he sits on the same topics

1086
00:53:42,600 --> 00:53:44,560
Speaker 1: he won't It doesn't matter what questions ask He knew

1087
00:53:44,600 --> 00:53:45,759
Speaker 1: what answers he wanted to give me.

1088
00:53:46,239 --> 00:53:50,160
Speaker 2: So so interesting because I see that in that mindfulness

1089
00:53:50,160 --> 00:53:54,040
Speaker 2: and purpose purposefulness that you mention. You see that actually

1090
00:53:54,040 --> 00:53:54,680
Speaker 2: in his interviews.

1091
00:53:54,719 --> 00:53:56,239
Speaker 1: Now he knows what he wants to get out before

1092
00:53:56,280 --> 00:53:56,640
Speaker 1: he gets there.

1093
00:53:56,760 --> 00:54:00,640
Speaker 2: He's delivering those very, very clearly cultivated messages, but he's

1094
00:54:00,640 --> 00:54:03,400
Speaker 2: also very strategic with their delivery. Have you seen the

1095
00:54:03,800 --> 00:54:06,319
Speaker 2: there's a really good little video of him recently where

1096
00:54:06,640 --> 00:54:07,920
Speaker 2: he's getting ready for an interview.

1097
00:54:07,960 --> 00:54:08,560
Speaker 1: Have you seen this one?

1098
00:54:08,960 --> 00:54:13,080
Speaker 2: And so there's two actually, So he's prepping for an

1099
00:54:13,080 --> 00:54:15,919
Speaker 2: interview and there's a table with a glass of water

1100
00:54:16,280 --> 00:54:17,719
Speaker 2: next to him, and he's just sitting there and the

1101
00:54:17,800 --> 00:54:21,120
Speaker 2: camera's rolling and the MIC's hot, and he says, hey, John,

1102
00:54:22,360 --> 00:54:25,160
Speaker 2: move that table. And so he moves the table and

1103
00:54:25,200 --> 00:54:27,480
Speaker 2: he just sits and he says, actually bring it back,

1104
00:54:28,640 --> 00:54:30,080
Speaker 2: and bring the glass back. And the glass has a

1105
00:54:30,080 --> 00:54:31,600
Speaker 2: little piece of paper on top of the glass. Just

1106
00:54:31,719 --> 00:54:33,440
Speaker 2: get rid of the piece of paper on top of

1107
00:54:33,480 --> 00:54:37,200
Speaker 2: the glass, and get rid of the matt under the glass.

1108
00:54:37,400 --> 00:54:39,480
Speaker 2: And he's just looking himself in the camera. Yeah, that's perfect.

1109
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:43,160
Speaker 2: And then there's another shot of him in the Oval

1110
00:54:43,239 --> 00:54:47,279
Speaker 2: office and he's recording his commentary on the I think

1111
00:54:47,280 --> 00:54:50,480
Speaker 2: the US economy and he's being fairly there's a lot

1112
00:54:50,520 --> 00:54:55,480
Speaker 2: of gesticulation and he's quite emphatic, and somebody coughers coughs

1113
00:54:55,880 --> 00:54:57,440
Speaker 2: halfway through. You know what he is. This is a

1114
00:54:57,480 --> 00:54:59,000
Speaker 2: kind of distant coffee you can hear in the background

1115
00:54:59,000 --> 00:55:01,680
Speaker 2: because it stops. Why the hell would you cougher the room?

1116
00:55:01,840 --> 00:55:04,920
Speaker 2: Leave the room and let's roll again, And he kind

1117
00:55:04,960 --> 00:55:10,120
Speaker 2: of seamlessly just slides straight back into that discourse.

1118
00:55:10,239 --> 00:55:13,320
Speaker 1: But yes, super super, I would say this, Chris, like

1119
00:55:13,400 --> 00:55:16,960
Speaker 1: a irrespective of your politics, whether your Republican or a

1120
00:55:16,960 --> 00:55:22,520
Speaker 1: Democrat or a liberal or a labor whatever, never underestimate him.

1121
00:55:22,880 --> 00:55:24,040
Speaker 1: If you do, you're going to do it at your

1122
00:55:24,040 --> 00:55:31,120
Speaker 1: own peril. The guy is on on narrative, on brand,

1123
00:55:32,080 --> 00:55:35,640
Speaker 1: on everything. He absolutely does like he knows exactly what

1124
00:55:35,760 --> 00:55:37,440
Speaker 1: he's going to do the outcome and it is not right.

1125
00:55:37,520 --> 00:55:39,440
Speaker 1: He gets it fixed and he has the ability to.

1126
00:55:39,600 --> 00:55:41,280
Speaker 1: By the way, when when when I did the interview

1127
00:55:42,080 --> 00:55:44,880
Speaker 1: to preempt where you might go first because and I

1128
00:55:44,920 --> 00:55:47,520
Speaker 1: won't say what he was asked me not to talk about,

1129
00:55:47,920 --> 00:55:50,560
Speaker 1: but he actually preempted a number of things to me

1130
00:55:50,880 --> 00:55:53,360
Speaker 1: before we got to that territory. And he did it

1131
00:55:53,440 --> 00:55:55,880
Speaker 1: through his head of pr person here they come and

1132
00:55:55,920 --> 00:55:59,680
Speaker 1: told me what territories you cannot go. And then when

1133
00:55:59,719 --> 00:56:02,440
Speaker 1: we did talk about fainily enough. He was. He was

1134
00:56:02,920 --> 00:56:08,080
Speaker 1: extremely critical of China an Australia's relationship with China, and

1135
00:56:08,239 --> 00:56:09,760
Speaker 1: I said to him, well, you know, like at seventy

1136
00:56:09,760 --> 00:56:12,759
Speaker 1: percent of our trade, you know, like export trade, and

1137
00:56:13,719 --> 00:56:16,200
Speaker 1: he just didn't copy. He's just but they're raping you,

1138
00:56:16,280 --> 00:56:18,399
Speaker 1: he said, are they are taking you for a ride?

1139
00:56:18,920 --> 00:56:21,040
Speaker 1: And he did not. And I thought it was chill

1140
00:56:21,120 --> 00:56:23,040
Speaker 1: because like you know, this is like they're a major

1141
00:56:23,080 --> 00:56:24,759
Speaker 1: trading part I think I don't want to go down

1142
00:56:24,800 --> 00:56:27,000
Speaker 1: the territory. But he didn't give a damn. So to

1143
00:56:27,120 --> 00:56:30,320
Speaker 1: some extent, and be honest, he's fearless. He's fearless like

1144
00:56:31,040 --> 00:56:34,399
Speaker 1: in a commercial Sceen is quite fearless. He doesn't care

1145
00:56:34,440 --> 00:56:36,080
Speaker 1: if the opposition is his.

1146
00:56:36,160 --> 00:56:37,759
Speaker 2: Ear blown off. And he was up there saying five

1147
00:56:37,840 --> 00:56:41,160
Speaker 2: fight fight. The dude's got balls, like he's he's a hitter. Yeah,

1148
00:56:41,160 --> 00:56:46,000
Speaker 2: he's a real hitter. And it's interesting how controlled and yeah,

1149
00:56:46,040 --> 00:56:50,920
Speaker 2: strategic and disciplined he is with his own decisioning and

1150
00:56:51,520 --> 00:56:55,080
Speaker 2: external as you were saying, communications like everything the no drinking,

1151
00:56:55,520 --> 00:56:58,960
Speaker 2: the no drugs, the appearance, the way, everything's very very careful.

1152
00:56:58,960 --> 00:57:02,360
Speaker 1: He's always on cure always and then he's messaging is

1153
00:57:02,560 --> 00:57:06,879
Speaker 1: just relentless, and relentless is a good word. And we're

1154
00:57:06,920 --> 00:57:09,040
Speaker 1: not here trying to blow smoke up the president's bump.

1155
00:57:09,080 --> 00:57:12,680
Speaker 1: But in terms of observations, I think relentless is a

1156
00:57:12,719 --> 00:57:16,320
Speaker 1: good word. He's relentless with his messaging about himself and

1157
00:57:16,400 --> 00:57:18,760
Speaker 1: everything that he's trying to achieve. In terms of his strategy,

1158
00:57:18,800 --> 00:57:21,439
Speaker 1: he's totally relentless. And even at seventy nine, just turns

1159
00:57:21,480 --> 00:57:26,560
Speaker 1: seventy nine. That's quite amazing. Acuities, incredible leaks, bang bang bang,

1160
00:57:26,640 --> 00:57:28,720
Speaker 1: and he's on and everything sort of set out, And

1161
00:57:29,440 --> 00:57:30,480
Speaker 1: I just want to quickly.

1162
00:57:30,280 --> 00:57:32,960
Speaker 2: Ask you before we go on, so one other point

1163
00:57:32,960 --> 00:57:35,960
Speaker 2: here that is important to your comment that we're not

1164
00:57:36,080 --> 00:57:39,000
Speaker 2: here to blow up, blow win up Trump's us. Like

1165
00:57:39,160 --> 00:57:41,080
Speaker 2: my job, I run fifteen billion, My job is to

1166
00:57:41,120 --> 00:57:43,840
Speaker 2: anticipate what the MOFO is going to do, right, I

1167
00:57:43,960 --> 00:57:45,920
Speaker 2: have to. You know, I invest a huge amount resources

1168
00:57:46,400 --> 00:57:49,080
Speaker 2: in trying to study him and understand him. And then

1169
00:57:49,160 --> 00:57:52,240
Speaker 2: through that process, if I find his decision making interesting

1170
00:57:53,040 --> 00:57:56,200
Speaker 2: and informative and illuminating, I'm actually trying to learn myself.

1171
00:57:56,560 --> 00:57:58,760
Speaker 2: You know, how can I better prosecute my own decision

1172
00:57:58,800 --> 00:58:03,000
Speaker 2: making problems? You know, when you've got a guy that's

1173
00:58:03,040 --> 00:58:05,480
Speaker 2: been elected president twice, he's a multi billionaire. Okay, he

1174
00:58:05,520 --> 00:58:09,280
Speaker 2: comes with all his again let's say acknowledged shortcomings, but

1175
00:58:09,360 --> 00:58:12,680
Speaker 2: there's there's the signal with the noise, there's there's something

1176
00:58:12,720 --> 00:58:14,160
Speaker 2: we can everyone can learn from Trump.

1177
00:58:14,400 --> 00:58:16,440
Speaker 1: And that's what today's about. And by the way, what

1178
00:58:16,560 --> 00:58:18,040
Speaker 1: do you read about the must trade?

1179
00:58:19,360 --> 00:58:21,560
Speaker 2: Great question. Yeah, so I think he just blew up.

1180
00:58:22,280 --> 00:58:28,040
Speaker 2: I think he really regrets the you know, vicious exit.

1181
00:58:29,800 --> 00:58:32,920
Speaker 2: I think I think that was an amazing partnership. I

1182
00:58:33,000 --> 00:58:35,919
Speaker 2: really hoped that it would endure. I actually think there'll

1183
00:58:35,960 --> 00:58:39,120
Speaker 2: be a reproachment at some point. Musk will come back

1184
00:58:39,160 --> 00:58:41,480
Speaker 2: to owl between his legs. I mean, Musk got way

1185
00:58:41,560 --> 00:58:44,800
Speaker 2: over his skis. He was politicizing everything he touched. Tesla

1186
00:58:45,000 --> 00:58:48,200
Speaker 2: was blowing up, he was a risk of losing SpaceX contracts.

1187
00:58:49,120 --> 00:58:52,360
Speaker 2: He wasn't focused on his businesses. And you know, I

1188
00:58:52,440 --> 00:58:54,080
Speaker 2: don't know, I mean he was. I don't want to

1189
00:58:54,080 --> 00:58:56,080
Speaker 2: call him a nascist, but he was clearly enjoying being

1190
00:58:56,120 --> 00:58:58,960
Speaker 2: in the Oval officer every day, sleeping in the Lincoln Room,

1191
00:59:00,080 --> 00:59:03,840
Speaker 2: being joint press conferences with Trump all the time, and

1192
00:59:03,920 --> 00:59:06,680
Speaker 2: I guess being at the center of a global decision

1193
00:59:06,720 --> 00:59:09,680
Speaker 2: making authority, dealing with leaders of nation states. So he

1194
00:59:09,920 --> 00:59:13,120
Speaker 2: was clearly getting off on that. You could see whether

1195
00:59:13,160 --> 00:59:15,280
Speaker 2: he has this ketamine addiction, I'm not sure, but it's

1196
00:59:15,400 --> 00:59:19,960
Speaker 2: clear that that he's an unusual cat, and it seemed

1197
00:59:20,000 --> 00:59:22,440
Speaker 2: if you look at the tapes, he was on something.

1198
00:59:23,400 --> 00:59:24,760
Speaker 1: And he has retracted a bit since.

1199
00:59:25,080 --> 00:59:27,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, and he's you know, he's he's definitely retracted a

1200
00:59:27,800 --> 00:59:31,840
Speaker 2: fair bit since. So, I mean, the big beautiful bill.

1201
00:59:33,320 --> 00:59:35,320
Speaker 2: Sure it has a lot of pork barreling in it,

1202
00:59:36,000 --> 00:59:38,000
Speaker 2: but these things are always compromises. You know. The tax

1203
00:59:38,080 --> 00:59:40,800
Speaker 2: cuts are important, the defense spending is important. I thought

1204
00:59:40,880 --> 00:59:42,680
Speaker 2: Doge had a lot of momentum behind it. So he

1205
00:59:42,840 --> 00:59:46,120
Speaker 2: kind of torched Doge. He torched his constituency inside the

1206
00:59:46,400 --> 00:59:49,600
Speaker 2: White House. He potentially torched a lot of his access

1207
00:59:50,440 --> 00:59:52,720
Speaker 2: in the context of his own businesses like Tesla and SpaceX.

1208
00:59:52,720 --> 00:59:56,120
Speaker 2: SpaceX's biggest customers the US government, So that's a that's

1209
00:59:56,160 --> 00:59:59,240
Speaker 2: a big potential problem. I think it's interesting how his

1210
00:59:59,760 --> 01:00:04,000
Speaker 2: crawl right back into his shell musk, and he's thus

1211
01:00:04,080 --> 01:00:07,680
Speaker 2: far been pretty a political except for the Californian rights

1212
01:00:08,080 --> 01:00:11,360
Speaker 2: where he's been retweeting what Trump and Jady Vance have

1213
01:00:11,440 --> 01:00:13,960
Speaker 2: been saying, so I think I think Mask made a

1214
01:00:13,960 --> 01:00:18,840
Speaker 2: big mistake and it wouldn't surprise me if he was intoxicated.

1215
01:00:19,120 --> 01:00:20,840
Speaker 2: I also thought the way that Trump dealt with him

1216
01:00:20,960 --> 01:00:24,560
Speaker 2: was really interesting, like really interesting. He was far less

1217
01:00:24,640 --> 01:00:29,720
Speaker 2: vicious and far more restrained until Muss started dropping the

1218
01:00:29,880 --> 01:00:31,800
Speaker 2: personal bombs on Trump, and then he just said, listen,

1219
01:00:32,240 --> 01:00:33,520
Speaker 2: you know, if you want to get personal, we can

1220
01:00:33,600 --> 01:00:35,040
Speaker 2: get personal. Like, you know, we don't need to do

1221
01:00:35,160 --> 01:00:36,800
Speaker 2: business with you if you want to go down that route.

1222
01:00:36,920 --> 01:00:39,400
Speaker 1: That's not shout, but that's like that's like the Iran

1223
01:00:39,560 --> 01:00:43,120
Speaker 1: Iran trade, like, yeah, you got forty days. Yeah, yeah,

1224
01:00:43,120 --> 01:00:45,000
Speaker 1: I mean will do a deal. He'll do an ultimatum

1225
01:00:45,360 --> 01:00:46,400
Speaker 1: that's to anyone.

1226
01:00:46,520 --> 01:00:49,720
Speaker 2: Correat Yeah, And Jady Vance said, I thought it was

1227
01:00:49,760 --> 01:00:52,800
Speaker 2: really interesting. Jeddy Vance said, we love Elin, he's been

1228
01:00:52,840 --> 01:00:56,600
Speaker 2: great for us, but do you really want to get

1229
01:00:56,640 --> 01:01:00,600
Speaker 2: into a blood rivalry with Donald Trump at this point

1230
01:01:00,720 --> 01:01:02,760
Speaker 2: in his career. No, that's not the trade you want

1231
01:01:02,800 --> 01:01:04,440
Speaker 2: to do, and he was just like, you get back

1232
01:01:04,480 --> 01:01:07,760
Speaker 2: into your box. I love Musk. I think he's amazing

1233
01:01:08,160 --> 01:01:10,400
Speaker 2: and he's an extraordinary human being. He's done so much

1234
01:01:10,480 --> 01:01:13,560
Speaker 2: for society. But I think it was just a mistake.

1235
01:01:13,560 --> 01:01:15,520
Speaker 2: We all make mistakes, and I think I think Musk

1236
01:01:15,560 --> 01:01:18,200
Speaker 2: will iterate big time. So I expect Musk to come

1237
01:01:18,240 --> 01:01:21,000
Speaker 2: back out and swing strongly behind Trump in whatever ways

1238
01:01:21,040 --> 01:01:24,360
Speaker 2: he can in the future. There was also I mean,

1239
01:01:24,400 --> 01:01:26,880
Speaker 2: I think Trump made the point that Musk was upset

1240
01:01:26,920 --> 01:01:33,120
Speaker 2: about him removing the electric vehicle subsidies by way of

1241
01:01:33,200 --> 01:01:37,320
Speaker 2: this big, bold, beautiful bill, whatever it's called. And whether

1242
01:01:37,440 --> 01:01:40,280
Speaker 2: that paid played part of it, I'm not sure. There

1243
01:01:40,360 --> 01:01:43,200
Speaker 2: was also, I think issues with Musk dealing with the

1244
01:01:43,240 --> 01:01:45,480
Speaker 2: broader administration. It's one thing to have a bilateral relationship

1245
01:01:45,480 --> 01:01:46,600
Speaker 2: with Trump when you've got to deal with all of

1246
01:01:46,600 --> 01:01:49,040
Speaker 2: his lackey's. Someone like Musk is going to blow up

1247
01:01:49,080 --> 01:01:52,400
Speaker 2: those guys because he's just you know, for sure, he's

1248
01:01:52,400 --> 01:01:57,160
Speaker 2: a force of nature. And so yeah, but I'm disappointed, mate,

1249
01:01:57,160 --> 01:01:59,120
Speaker 2: because I thought Musk had a lot of answers to

1250
01:01:59,240 --> 01:02:03,680
Speaker 2: Trump's problems from a policy perspective, like Musk has really

1251
01:02:04,000 --> 01:02:07,640
Speaker 2: extraordinary strategic clarity, and he was right on the economics.

1252
01:02:07,680 --> 01:02:09,560
Speaker 2: You know, you've got to cut government spending in the

1253
01:02:09,720 --> 01:02:12,200
Speaker 2: US in order to balance the books, and you need

1254
01:02:12,280 --> 01:02:14,360
Speaker 2: to balance the budget in order to start paying back

1255
01:02:14,400 --> 01:02:17,480
Speaker 2: the debt and reducing the burden of the interest rate

1256
01:02:17,800 --> 01:02:19,920
Speaker 2: servicing costs. So yeah, it was disappointed.

1257
01:02:19,920 --> 01:02:21,320
Speaker 1: I got down in Murky on in next week. What

1258
01:02:21,480 --> 01:02:23,000
Speaker 1: would you say about the budget that came up from

1259
01:02:23,000 --> 01:02:24,720
Speaker 1: New South Wales on Tuesday this week?

1260
01:02:25,440 --> 01:02:28,280
Speaker 2: Mate, Mooki is probably the best politician in Australia. Definitely

1261
01:02:28,280 --> 01:02:31,600
Speaker 2: the best treasure, best treasure in Australia. I'm sorry, definitely

1262
01:02:31,600 --> 01:02:37,080
Speaker 2: the best stay treasurer your soft mate, come on, So yeah,

1263
01:02:37,120 --> 01:02:39,680
Speaker 2: Mooki is definitely. I think he's the hardest working, smartest

1264
01:02:39,720 --> 01:02:44,960
Speaker 2: politician in the country. He is formidably intelligent. He know

1265
01:02:45,040 --> 01:02:46,919
Speaker 2: what's different about Murky as well. I think he really

1266
01:02:47,040 --> 01:02:49,520
Speaker 2: is in it for the right reasons. He doesn't want

1267
01:02:49,560 --> 01:02:53,520
Speaker 2: to be Premier or Prime Minister. He cares about change

1268
01:02:53,720 --> 01:02:56,720
Speaker 2: and he's also very sensible. I've dealt with him a lot.

1269
01:02:57,120 --> 01:02:59,520
Speaker 2: He's a fucking weapon, mate, He's an absolute beast man.

1270
01:02:59,520 --> 01:03:01,120
Speaker 1: How much of the budget do you think was about

1271
01:03:01,880 --> 01:03:05,800
Speaker 1: saying or preserving our credit rating for New South Wales

1272
01:03:05,840 --> 01:03:06,640
Speaker 1: I'm talking about.

1273
01:03:07,320 --> 01:03:09,640
Speaker 2: I mean with a good look. Yeah, I think we

1274
01:03:09,760 --> 01:03:12,480
Speaker 2: think they're at risk of losing the credit rating. But

1275
01:03:12,520 --> 01:03:14,680
Speaker 2: he's doing everything he can to try and salvage it.

1276
01:03:15,080 --> 01:03:17,320
Speaker 2: I can tell you this. You know, the Victorians are

1277
01:03:17,360 --> 01:03:20,240
Speaker 2: borrying about forty billion a year, the Queensland's borring about

1278
01:03:20,240 --> 01:03:22,080
Speaker 2: forty billion a year. Mook, He's only borrowing twenty four

1279
01:03:22,120 --> 01:03:24,160
Speaker 2: billion a year for a bigger state, for a much

1280
01:03:24,160 --> 01:03:29,600
Speaker 2: bigger state. And so he's been incredibly disciplined on debt.

1281
01:03:30,360 --> 01:03:32,240
Speaker 2: And that's something I spoke to him a lot about

1282
01:03:32,320 --> 01:03:37,600
Speaker 2: before he became treasurer. He's an immense he's an immense

1283
01:03:37,840 --> 01:03:40,240
Speaker 2: human being, and he's one of the good guys. Like

1284
01:03:40,280 --> 01:03:43,240
Speaker 2: if someone like him could become premier or Prime minister,

1285
01:03:43,400 --> 01:03:45,800
Speaker 2: that's when you win, you know, when you've got somebody

1286
01:03:45,840 --> 01:03:48,040
Speaker 2: who's there for the right reasons, who isn't a narcissist,

1287
01:03:48,040 --> 01:03:51,560
Speaker 2: who isn't just trying to accumulate power and kind of

1288
01:03:52,480 --> 01:03:53,960
Speaker 2: settle scores, And then.

1289
01:03:54,080 --> 01:03:55,800
Speaker 1: That's how that's how I see Christian's by the way,

1290
01:03:55,840 --> 01:03:58,720
Speaker 1: at a state level, yeah, I think christ is there

1291
01:03:58,760 --> 01:04:00,840
Speaker 1: for the right reasons. Us again that right, but he's

1292
01:04:00,880 --> 01:04:02,720
Speaker 1: in the right reasons. He's not trying to settle scores.

1293
01:04:03,320 --> 01:04:05,680
Speaker 1: It's I think it's a bit different at the federal level.

1294
01:04:05,720 --> 01:04:07,280
Speaker 1: But I meant anyway, I rate both.

1295
01:04:07,320 --> 01:04:09,520
Speaker 2: I've only met him once and I had like a

1296
01:04:09,560 --> 01:04:12,560
Speaker 2: meeting with Min's and Murky and Men's was fantastic. He

1297
01:04:12,600 --> 01:04:16,480
Speaker 2: went to Princeton. He's a farman, super impressive guy. And

1298
01:04:16,560 --> 01:04:19,520
Speaker 2: I think the fact that there is also normal normal

1299
01:04:21,760 --> 01:04:26,200
Speaker 2: and the fact that their relationship is sort of seem

1300
01:04:26,240 --> 01:04:28,440
Speaker 2: to be high fidelity is very positive.

1301
01:04:28,480 --> 01:04:31,040
Speaker 1: One more question for Chris. So one of our listeners

1302
01:04:31,160 --> 01:04:35,040
Speaker 1: has asked asked us to ask you this question, he says,

1303
01:04:35,080 --> 01:04:37,720
Speaker 1: from one of our Mental Plus subscribers, Aaron Scott, and

1304
01:04:37,720 --> 01:04:41,479
Speaker 1: he says, I'm here to to hear Chris. Chris's thoughts

1305
01:04:41,520 --> 01:04:43,760
Speaker 1: about tax reform, and we like to see lower income taxes,

1306
01:04:43,800 --> 01:04:46,520
Speaker 1: a high broad based consumer tax such as an increase

1307
01:04:46,600 --> 01:04:52,040
Speaker 1: the GST, or he says, an increase in CGT. So

1308
01:04:52,320 --> 01:04:54,320
Speaker 1: I presume it could be meaning capital against AX or

1309
01:04:54,360 --> 01:04:57,640
Speaker 1: the GST. But we are we do have a reform. Sorry,

1310
01:04:57,680 --> 01:04:59,640
Speaker 1: we do have a someone coming up in August. I

1311
01:04:59,640 --> 01:05:01,520
Speaker 1: think it is question is have they asked you to

1312
01:05:01,600 --> 01:05:01,959
Speaker 1: come along?

1313
01:05:02,960 --> 01:05:05,280
Speaker 2: And they haven't asked me either, So what are you

1314
01:05:05,320 --> 01:05:07,360
Speaker 2: not one of the good guys as nor am I

1315
01:05:07,600 --> 01:05:11,240
Speaker 2: one of Charmers himself, or one of those guys said

1316
01:05:11,640 --> 01:05:13,280
Speaker 2: a long time ago that dealing with me, you've got

1317
01:05:13,360 --> 01:05:15,960
Speaker 2: to use fireproof gloves, so they don't trust me. And

1318
01:05:16,680 --> 01:05:18,480
Speaker 2: that's fine. I mean, I've got no problem with any

1319
01:05:18,480 --> 01:05:20,480
Speaker 2: of them. As said, I'm pretty a political but I

1320
01:05:20,640 --> 01:05:22,480
Speaker 2: just the problem is I say what I think and

1321
01:05:22,560 --> 01:05:24,680
Speaker 2: I can't be controlled and therefore, well, you're not going

1322
01:05:24,720 --> 01:05:25,160
Speaker 2: to be a job.

1323
01:05:25,200 --> 01:05:25,640
Speaker 1: Why would you?

1324
01:05:25,920 --> 01:05:28,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, But I think answer to the question, I think

1325
01:05:28,560 --> 01:05:32,160
Speaker 2: everything's on the table, capital gains tax discounts, capital gains

1326
01:05:32,200 --> 01:05:33,280
Speaker 2: tax period GSD.

1327
01:05:34,080 --> 01:05:34,960
Speaker 1: He's made it pretty clearly.

1328
01:05:36,400 --> 01:05:41,360
Speaker 2: I would just think that state taxes, gst capital gains taxes,

1329
01:05:43,080 --> 01:05:48,800
Speaker 2: you know, mineral resource rent taxes, stamp duty is like

1330
01:05:48,920 --> 01:05:50,840
Speaker 2: state and federal taxes. I think it's all on the

1331
01:05:50,880 --> 01:05:52,480
Speaker 2: table because they're going to need to raise a lot

1332
01:05:52,560 --> 01:05:53,160
Speaker 2: of tax.

1333
01:05:53,960 --> 01:05:55,720
Speaker 1: Or that'll borrow more money, which is a problem.

1334
01:05:55,960 --> 01:06:00,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, to pay the interest on the the borrowings

1335
01:06:00,800 --> 01:06:01,960
Speaker 2: of their currently.

1336
01:06:02,240 --> 01:06:02,439
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1337
01:06:02,480 --> 01:06:05,360
Speaker 2: So I think taxes are heading one way, and I

1338
01:06:05,360 --> 01:06:07,520
Speaker 2: think it's gonna be really nasty unfortunately. And I think

1339
01:06:07,560 --> 01:06:09,919
Speaker 2: this is over a ten. Particularly if they get another

1340
01:06:09,960 --> 01:06:12,000
Speaker 2: two terms, you're going to see a huge increase in

1341
01:06:12,040 --> 01:06:13,960
Speaker 2: the public tax stake to fund the NDIS. I mean,

1342
01:06:14,000 --> 01:06:17,440
Speaker 2: that's sixty billion a year, as big as medicare one

1343
01:06:17,520 --> 01:06:22,440
Speaker 2: and nine kids are apparently autistic. It's just the biggest.

1344
01:06:23,200 --> 01:06:24,880
Speaker 2: It's the biggest rued in the history of ruds.

1345
01:06:25,320 --> 01:06:28,040
Speaker 1: And you know, one of the reason why I found

1346
01:06:28,080 --> 01:06:32,760
Speaker 1: it the other day is because if you're diagnosed and

1347
01:06:32,880 --> 01:06:36,640
Speaker 1: prescribed as autistic, and I don't mean severely autistic, I

1348
01:06:36,680 --> 01:06:41,880
Speaker 1: don't mean completely different everybody else, because there are autistic

1349
01:06:42,200 --> 01:06:45,000
Speaker 1: people in kids who are really at a disadvantage to

1350
01:06:45,080 --> 01:06:50,000
Speaker 1: some extent, and fair enough, but even if you're mildly autistic,

1351
01:06:50,120 --> 01:06:53,640
Speaker 1: however that it gets diagnosed that they at the HC,

1352
01:06:54,080 --> 01:06:56,040
Speaker 1: they get special advantages in terms of how they do

1353
01:06:56,120 --> 01:06:57,439
Speaker 1: the exam. They get much more time.

1354
01:06:58,080 --> 01:07:00,400
Speaker 2: Well, it's also assessed not by anyone who's into pen interview,

1355
01:07:00,480 --> 01:07:03,800
Speaker 2: but both whomever you choose to have the assessment made by.

1356
01:07:04,040 --> 01:07:05,120
Speaker 2: And it's not means tested.

1357
01:07:05,760 --> 01:07:11,120
Speaker 1: So clever parents will say that diagnosed every.

1358
01:07:11,080 --> 01:07:15,360
Speaker 2: Man and their dogs now in the NDIS. And so

1359
01:07:15,480 --> 01:07:17,400
Speaker 2: I think the taxes are heading one way. I mean,

1360
01:07:17,440 --> 01:07:19,360
Speaker 2: you're going to be paying a lot of tax to

1361
01:07:19,440 --> 01:07:21,320
Speaker 2: the government because the government's got to pay for the NDS.

1362
01:07:21,360 --> 01:07:23,520
Speaker 2: They're going to pay for all this infrastructure, they're going

1363
01:07:23,560 --> 01:07:26,439
Speaker 2: to pay for the huge public service and the fact

1364
01:07:26,440 --> 01:07:28,680
Speaker 2: that they represent a larger share of the economy than

1365
01:07:29,600 --> 01:07:32,120
Speaker 2: any government we've seen since more or less World War Two.

1366
01:07:32,200 --> 01:07:37,200
Speaker 2: So I think forget what they say, like any any

1367
01:07:37,400 --> 01:07:39,200
Speaker 2: claims that we're not going to do gs here, we're

1368
01:07:39,200 --> 01:07:40,480
Speaker 2: not going to do with stay taxes. I think it's

1369
01:07:40,520 --> 01:07:43,560
Speaker 2: all on the table. Maybe not this term, maybe next term,

1370
01:07:43,720 --> 01:07:46,560
Speaker 2: but it's they're coming for everybody. There's gonna be a

1371
01:07:46,600 --> 01:07:48,280
Speaker 2: lot of tax paid. I mean, and you see the

1372
01:07:48,960 --> 01:07:53,880
Speaker 2: bifurcation here between libertarian states like Florida in the US

1373
01:07:54,120 --> 01:07:57,120
Speaker 2: and the super center left states like California. I mean,

1374
01:07:57,680 --> 01:07:59,960
Speaker 2: the totality of taxes you pay in California fifty six,

1375
01:08:00,520 --> 01:08:03,320
Speaker 2: where you're paying basically half that in Florida, because they're

1376
01:08:03,400 --> 01:08:06,800
Speaker 2: just two distinctly different business models. And I think it

1377
01:08:06,920 --> 01:08:10,640
Speaker 2: also is unfortunately generational. Younger generations want government to solve

1378
01:08:10,680 --> 01:08:13,160
Speaker 2: their problems. Order generations want government to get out of

1379
01:08:13,200 --> 01:08:13,440
Speaker 2: the way.

1380
01:08:14,080 --> 01:08:18,640
Speaker 1: And yeah, have you got one quick, quick one that

1381
01:08:18,720 --> 01:08:21,960
Speaker 1: just came through to my mind. Let's forget about the

1382
01:08:22,120 --> 01:08:24,160
Speaker 1: unfairness of the total tax or the way its been

1383
01:08:24,200 --> 01:08:27,000
Speaker 1: calculator should say, but this superinnoation tax over over three

1384
01:08:27,040 --> 01:08:28,439
Speaker 1: million dollars was your view.

1385
01:08:29,120 --> 01:08:30,840
Speaker 2: It just doesn't make any sense to me at all, Like,

1386
01:08:31,040 --> 01:08:32,360
Speaker 2: I have no idea where this came from.

1387
01:08:32,479 --> 01:08:33,280
Speaker 1: It's not indexed.

1388
01:08:33,880 --> 01:08:36,479
Speaker 2: I mean, it just looks like an a team gains

1389
01:08:36,680 --> 01:08:39,080
Speaker 2: unrealized gains. It looks like an attempt just to attax

1390
01:08:40,360 --> 01:08:43,240
Speaker 2: into oblivion anyone who has a large superbalance.

1391
01:08:43,439 --> 01:08:44,719
Speaker 1: But what would be the episode?

1392
01:08:44,920 --> 01:08:46,880
Speaker 2: Presumably the intent is to get them out of Super.

1393
01:08:47,320 --> 01:08:49,240
Speaker 2: But where's that money going to go? It's probably going

1394
01:08:49,280 --> 01:08:51,600
Speaker 2: to go back into the owner occupied property, right, Like,

1395
01:08:51,760 --> 01:08:52,840
Speaker 2: what are you going to do? You're going to take

1396
01:08:52,880 --> 01:08:55,120
Speaker 2: your fix million Super and say, fine, I'm just going

1397
01:08:55,160 --> 01:08:58,639
Speaker 2: to upgrade to a bigger house and get tax free

1398
01:08:58,720 --> 01:08:59,920
Speaker 2: capital gains on my home.

1399
01:09:01,479 --> 01:09:02,880
Speaker 1: Maybe they've got that lined up as well.

1400
01:09:04,280 --> 01:09:06,240
Speaker 2: Wouldn't surprise me, mate, it would not. I mean it's

1401
01:09:06,240 --> 01:09:07,880
Speaker 2: going to be nasty. It's going to be really bad.

1402
01:09:08,240 --> 01:09:10,599
Speaker 1: This is terrible. But but it's not yet. We'll wait

1403
01:09:10,600 --> 01:09:12,360
Speaker 1: and see what happens in August or whenever he's having

1404
01:09:12,439 --> 01:09:16,479
Speaker 1: commting and what you know, Dreasure, you should be inviting

1405
01:09:16,520 --> 01:09:18,360
Speaker 1: this bloke and a few other people that I know,

1406
01:09:18,439 --> 01:09:21,360
Speaker 1: but I doubt very much again invite us. We'll at

1407
01:09:21,439 --> 01:09:23,360
Speaker 1: least tell you what you should you need to hear.

1408
01:09:24,120 --> 01:09:26,000
Speaker 2: We won't be there, So I say what we need

1409
01:09:26,080 --> 01:09:28,640
Speaker 2: to do is Australian needs to be a magnet for

1410
01:09:28,680 --> 01:09:30,600
Speaker 2: the best talent globally and to do that we need

1411
01:09:30,640 --> 01:09:33,200
Speaker 2: to have globally competitive tax rates. And we know we're close,

1412
01:09:33,760 --> 01:09:36,760
Speaker 2: like we need to radically revise. We should be less

1413
01:09:37,280 --> 01:09:38,879
Speaker 2: progressive in our tax regimes.

1414
01:09:38,920 --> 01:09:39,360
Speaker 1: It should be.

1415
01:09:40,960 --> 01:09:44,400
Speaker 2: Much the tax CAU should be much flatter, much lower.

1416
01:09:45,200 --> 01:09:47,320
Speaker 2: And but it'll happen. What's going to happen is we're

1417
01:09:47,320 --> 01:09:50,200
Speaker 2: gonna have a couple of terms of this and then

1418
01:09:50,200 --> 01:09:51,920
Speaker 2: there will be big problems. But eventually you get a

1419
01:09:51,960 --> 01:09:53,720
Speaker 2: trumpy and style character who just come in and will

1420
01:09:53,720 --> 01:09:58,479
Speaker 2: just slash all the taxes, and so you know, the

1421
01:09:58,560 --> 01:10:01,120
Speaker 2: pendulum will swing in the other direction and eventually just

1422
01:10:01,200 --> 01:10:03,439
Speaker 2: gonna stay alive long enough, you guys, stay alive long enough.

1423
01:10:03,520 --> 01:10:05,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, thanks mate, good to speak in Chris

1424
01:10:18,439 --> 01:10:18,479
Speaker 2: M.