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Speaker 1: From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm christinamiot.

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Speaker 1: It's Tuesday, February four. The biggest business body in the country,

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Speaker 1: says Anthony Albanesi has no choice but to revisit his

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Speaker 1: government's eighty two percent renewables target. Australian Chamber of Commerce

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Speaker 1: and Industry Chief executive Andrew McKellar says business owners want

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Speaker 1: gas to play a bigger role as energy prices saw.

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Speaker 1: Industry groups, activists, unions and individuals have a plan to

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Speaker 1: influence swing voters at the next federal election. They're building

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Speaker 1: campaign war chests worth millions of dollars and they'll use

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Speaker 1: new technology to target voters where their ballots are needed.

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Speaker 1: Most those stories alive right now at the Australian dot

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Speaker 1: com dot au. Global politics is in a spin after

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Speaker 1: US President Donald Trump slapped hefty tariffs on some of

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Speaker 1: America's closest allies and neighbors. So what's this really all about?

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Speaker 1: We unpack it in today's episode. Donald Trump loves a tariff,

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Speaker 1: and on Sunday he invoked a little known slice of

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Speaker 1: the law to slap levies on some of America's biggest

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Speaker 1: trade partners.

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Speaker 2: We'll see how it is, but it's a lot of

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Speaker 2: money coming to the United States.

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Speaker 3: They've treated us very unfairly.

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Speaker 1: From Tuesday, the US will impose a twenty five percent

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Speaker 1: levee on imports from Canada and Mexico, as well as

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Speaker 1: a ten percent tariff on energy products from Canada and

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Speaker 1: an additional ten percent tariff on China. It's the first

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Speaker 1: time the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which gives the

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Speaker 1: president broad powers during crisis situations, has been used to

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Speaker 1: impose tariffs. President Trump says it'll stop the flow of

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Speaker 1: the highly potent opioid fentanyl into the US.

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Speaker 2: Kinda makes the fentanyl, gives it to Mexico, puts it

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Speaker 2: through Canada, puts it through different places, mostly Mexico, but

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Speaker 2: also a lot through Canada, and so all three haven't.

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Speaker 3: Treated us very well.

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Speaker 4: I think Donald Trump is HARKing back to a previous

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Speaker 4: era of protectionism in the fifties and sixties, when the

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Speaker 4: United States was on top economically, militarily, and socially.

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Speaker 1: Joe Kelly is The Australian's Washington DC correspondent.

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Speaker 3: I think he.

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Speaker 4: Thinks that by reverting to protectionism, he might be able

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Speaker 4: to adopt a philosophy where America is making everything at home.

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Speaker 3: So far, we don't know.

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Speaker 4: What measures Canada, Mexico, or China would need to take

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Speaker 4: for these tariffs to be lifted. He hasn't spelt that out.

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Speaker 4: It's not clear. I think this raises the question about

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Speaker 4: whether the tariffs are an end in themselves. And he

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Speaker 4: said in his inauguration speech that by putting tariffs on

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Speaker 4: other countries, he would enrich America. I think he's aware

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Speaker 4: that there are going to be some growing pains associated

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Speaker 4: with this philosophy, this approach that he's taken. How this

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Speaker 4: all plays out in the end is unpredictable. I don't

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Speaker 4: think anybody knows.

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Speaker 1: These new duties will apply to everything from fresh produce

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Speaker 1: like avocados, to cars and tech products, and they're estimated

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Speaker 1: to affect just over two billion US dollars in annual trade.

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Speaker 1: It means American importers will pay at tax on whatever

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Speaker 1: they're bringing into the country from Canada, China, or Mexico.

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Speaker 1: It's a lot for small businesses, in particular to cop

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Speaker 1: and that means they'll likely pass the extra costs along

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Speaker 1: to consumers.

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Speaker 3: Tariffs still calls inflation.

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Speaker 2: They're caused success, and so we're going to have great success.

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Speaker 2: There could be some temporary, short term disruption. But the

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Speaker 2: tariffs are going to make us very rich and very strong,

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Speaker 2: and we're going to treat other countries very fairly.

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Speaker 5: Joe.

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump acknowledged that these tariffs could push consumer prices up,

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Speaker 1: but he said they'll be beneficial in the long run.

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Speaker 1: How does that play for him among an electric that

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Speaker 1: arguably elected him based on a belief that he would

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Speaker 1: bring inflation down and lift everyday Americans out of a

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Speaker 1: cost of living crisis.

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Speaker 4: The honest answer to that question is no one's sure

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Speaker 4: how it's going to play out. But Donald Trump was

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Speaker 4: very clear about his commitment to implement tariffs during the

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Speaker 4: presidential election campaign.

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Speaker 3: So this is what Americans voted for.

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Speaker 4: Of course, they can still be used as a tool

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Speaker 4: to extract concessions, but this means that real pain will

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Speaker 4: be inflicted, and that pain will also fall upon American workers.

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Speaker 4: There are estimates that have been done by think tanks

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Speaker 4: over here suggesting that potentially hundreds of thousands of American

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Speaker 4: jobs could be lost based upon the tariffs that are

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Speaker 4: now being implemented.

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Speaker 1: Mexican President Claudia Sinbaum says she's prepared to open up

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Speaker 1: a dialogue with President Trump about the tariffs.

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Speaker 3: There's fundamental relasion.

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Speaker 1: Beijing hasn't said much at all outside of its pledge

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Speaker 1: to protect its trade interests. But on Monday, Canadian Prime

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Speaker 1: Minister Justin Trudeau returned fire in Donald Trump's new trade war.

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Speaker 6: Unfortunately, the actions taken by the White House split US

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Speaker 6: apport instead of bringing us together. Tonight, I am announcing

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Speaker 6: Canada will be responding to the US trade action with

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Speaker 6: twenty five percent tariffs against one hundred and fifty five

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Speaker 6: billion dollars worth of American goods.

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Speaker 1: Trudeau's former finance minister, Christia Freeland, who's going to replace

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Speaker 1: him as Canada's leader when he steps down later in

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Speaker 1: the year, didn't hold back either.

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Speaker 7: I think we as Canadians need to really recognize the

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Speaker 7: gravity of what has just happened. This is an illegal

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Speaker 7: and unjustified action.

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Speaker 6: This is a.

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Speaker 7: Betrayal of America's closest friend and best ally. This is

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Speaker 7: economic warfare, and it is incredibly important for us to

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Speaker 7: hit back, and to hit back hard.

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Speaker 1: In opposed to truth, social Donald Trump said the solution

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Speaker 1: was simple, become America's fifty first state. What's the calculus

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Speaker 1: for Donald Trump here? Does he actually want Canada to

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Speaker 1: be part of the United States or is something else

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Speaker 1: going on.

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Speaker 3: This is just the starting point.

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Speaker 4: This trade war could escalate, and it could escalate rapidly

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Speaker 4: from here. I think there's a general opinion that hopefully

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Speaker 4: this trade war can be de escalated and it can

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Speaker 4: be ended. But that's going to be difficult. If there's

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Speaker 4: a three way standoff and you've got all these countries

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Speaker 4: putting tariffs on one another, Donald Trump will want something

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Speaker 4: in return for taking the tariffs off.

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Speaker 3: He'll want to be seen to win the trade war.

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Speaker 4: Both Canada and Mexico, in their responses, express disappointment that

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Speaker 4: the United States had chosen confrontation rather than collaboration. Both

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Speaker 4: say they are willing to work with America to try

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Speaker 4: and address that problem as partners, and they're disappointed that

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Speaker 4: the approach America's taken under Donald Trump is one of confrontation.

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Speaker 4: I'm not saying that Donald Trump will always choose confrontation

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Speaker 4: rather than partnership, but he's showing that he's prepared to

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Speaker 4: use confrontation even in dealing with close allies.

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Speaker 1: Coming up, what our journalists make of Donald Trump's new

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Speaker 1: trade war. There are a lot of moving parts and

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Speaker 1: a lot of unknowns in this new trade war. So

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Speaker 1: I called up some of the Australian's experts to get

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Speaker 1: their take on it. Judith Loan is an economist and

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Speaker 1: a company director, and it's safe to say she's not

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Speaker 1: a fan of tariffs.

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Speaker 8: Well, of course, economists are opposed to tarriff's because basically

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Speaker 8: we think they distore prices and distort trade and in

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Speaker 8: the end, the country that's imposing.

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Speaker 9: The tariff sense up worse off.

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Speaker 5: He doesn't seem to understand that when two parties trade

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Speaker 5: with each other, both the seller and the buyer benefit.

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Speaker 5: His view seems to be that if America's buying goods

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Speaker 5: and services that America could produce, that is somehow a

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Speaker 5: form of theft or undesirable and then he seems to

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Speaker 5: link this to be in flow of fentanyl and illegal immigrants.

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Speaker 5: But there's no what i'd call KPI to this. It's

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Speaker 5: not clear what the Canadians need to do the extent

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Speaker 5: to their actions to discourage those things which would allow

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Speaker 5: Trump to change his mind.

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Speaker 1: Trump does have a point, up to a point.

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Speaker 5: So economists were very big on what we call the

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Speaker 5: rules based order, the World Trade Organization, people complying with

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Speaker 5: agreements that they make. But the reality of that world

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Speaker 5: was that it was a crooked world, and people cheated,

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Speaker 5: countries cheated, countries entered into trade agreements that they then broke.

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Speaker 5: So Trump has a point in the sense that in

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Speaker 5: his world, he's not replacing something that's perfect. He's replacing

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Speaker 5: something that actually is relatively dodgy. Now, my argument would be, well,

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Speaker 5: let's see how we can work to improve that world

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Speaker 5: and how we can improve compliance with the rules, because

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Speaker 5: everyone benefits of that happens. But you know, Trump's going

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Speaker 5: in the opposite direction and saying, well, look, I don't

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Speaker 5: think we can fix that world. I'm creating another world.

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Speaker 1: The thing is it might all be for naught.

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Speaker 9: He's such a sort of unpredictable character. He could easily

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Speaker 9: lift the tariffs as he's imposed there quite quickly as well.

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Speaker 9: So it's a very very volatile environment at the moment.

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Speaker 1: Our Foreign editor Greg Sheridan reckons the whole thing is

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Speaker 1: a bit silly, but that doesn't mean it won't be

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Speaker 1: a win for President Trump. Two point zero.

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Speaker 10: With Trump, everything is a negotiation, and these tariffs I

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Speaker 10: think are also the starting point of a negotiation. On

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Speaker 10: the other hand, it strikes me as pretty silly for

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Speaker 10: the United States to embark on a trade war with Canada,

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Speaker 10: a fellow NATO ally and its closest neighbor and fellow

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Speaker 10: liberal democracy and so. And that's one of the weaknesses

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Speaker 10: of Trump, that he tends to beat up on allies

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Speaker 10: even more than he beats up on adversary. Is Having

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Speaker 10: said all that, it's rather unpredictable. Trump wants to re

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Speaker 10: direct foreign investment because of tariffs to make it more

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Speaker 10: profitable to build things in America for the American market.

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Speaker 10: For that to work, really you have to have tariffs

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Speaker 10: in place for a long time, whereas I don't think

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Speaker 10: these tariffs will be in place for a long time,

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Speaker 10: although it's very hard to say. One of the weird

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Speaker 10: things about this is that his objection to Mexican and

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Speaker 10: Canadian behavior is not really trade behavior. It's policing illegal

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Speaker 10: immigrants entering into the US and policing the trafficking of

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Speaker 10: fenanyl across their borders. That makes it very difficult for

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Speaker 10: either country to know what actions would take that would

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Speaker 10: be sufficient for Trump to lift the tariffs, so it's

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Speaker 10: very messy. The long term consequences that have been unclear.

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Speaker 10: You would expect because Mexico and Canada in the United

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Speaker 10: States are so deeply integrated economically, that the Mexicans and

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Speaker 10: the Canadians will find a way to placate Trump and

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Speaker 10: the tariffs will be lifted relatively quickly. And the other

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Speaker 10: reason for expecting that is because a certain number of

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Speaker 10: American jobs, not a trivial number, some tens of thousands,

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Speaker 10: would be affected by tariffs, especially on Canadian energy exports

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Speaker 10: to the United States. The situation is pretty much as

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Speaker 10: clear as mud, and as with most things with Trump,

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Speaker 10: there's a genuine a grievance that he's addressing. He is

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Speaker 10: likely to get Canada and Mexico to do what he wants,

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Speaker 10: but these tariffs are an incredibly messy and potentially counterproductive

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Speaker 10: way to go about it.

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Speaker 1: The Australian's Policy editor Tom Ducivic put a local spin

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Speaker 1: on things.

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Speaker 11: For me, tariffs are dumb and depending on the second

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Speaker 11: round effects as countries impose their own penalty taxes on

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Speaker 11: US goods, it marks up supply chains, hurts trade and growth,

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Speaker 11: and could be inflationary RBA Governor Michelle Bullock said before Christmas,

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Speaker 11: when the details weren't yet known that ultimately, if it's

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Speaker 11: not good for the Chinese economy, it isn't good for

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Speaker 11: us either. But if China is forced to divert trade

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Speaker 11: away from the US, then we may be the beneficiaries

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Speaker 11: of cheaper prices, for instance, as China's got to do

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Speaker 11: a fire sale of the sorts of things that might

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Speaker 11: sell into America. And if China's economy is hit hard,

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Speaker 11: then Beijing might respond with huge government spending that could

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Speaker 11: benefit our exports of commodities. So we won't know for

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Speaker 11: quite some time how that will play out those second

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Speaker 11: round effects. But we're not really in the gun, so

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Speaker 11: to speak, because we run a trade deficit with America.

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Speaker 11: They run a trade surplus with so we're not going

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Speaker 11: to be on their radar as a sort of trouble

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Speaker 11: nation that they need to muscle around with trade sanctions

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Speaker 11: like tariffs.

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Speaker 1: Tom Ducivic is The Australian's Policy editor. Greg Sheridan is

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Speaker 1: our foreign editor, Judith Sloan is a contributing economics editor,

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Speaker 1: and Joe Kelly is The Australian's correspondent in Washington. DC.

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Speaker 1: You can read all their reporting and analysis of Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump's tariff war right now at the Australian dot com

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Speaker 1: dot au