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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed Business News you can use

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Speaker 1: the chance of further interest rate cuts increase, with figures

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Speaker 1: showing stagnation in retail spending and construction. Prime Minister Anthony

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Speaker 1: Aberezi and Trade Minister Don Farrell hit out the Trump

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Speaker 1: administration over defense and new tariffs on steel and aluminium,

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Speaker 1: and prices rise in the housing market across the country.

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Speaker 1: Plus the AFI Rich list is out and so too

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Speaker 1: are details of Ryanair's CEO. He's set to earn two

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Speaker 1: hundred million dollars in one year. It's Monday, the second

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Speaker 1: of June twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and good

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Speaker 1: morning Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael.

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Speaker 1: Sean starts your week right. Start every weekday right. Actually,

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Speaker 1: because it comes out every day, the Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: newsletter jam packed full of good stuff today.

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Speaker 2: Sure is gives you that step ahead as you walk

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Speaker 2: in the office. You've confident because you've read the Fear

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Speaker 2: and Green newsletter. You know what's gone on. Get into it.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, it is available every weekday. You can sign up

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Speaker 1: at Fear Andandgreed dot com dot au. It is entirely free.

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Speaker 1: I'll put a link in today's show notes as well,

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Speaker 1: so that you can just click straight through, pop your

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Speaker 1: email addressing, and away you go. The main story this

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Speaker 1: morning shown the chance of more rate cuts in coming

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Speaker 1: months is growing, with the retail, construction, and business investment

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Speaker 1: sectors showing few signs of strength. Now that's likely to

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Speaker 1: be confirmed this week with the release of March quarter

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Speaker 1: economic growth figures.

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Speaker 2: Over the past week, we've had a run of figures

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Speaker 2: that suggest the economy is grinding slower, and economists are

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Speaker 2: now forecasting an annualized growth rate for the beginning of

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Speaker 2: the year of you know, one and a half, one

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Speaker 2: point six, one point seven percent. It ain't that good.

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Speaker 2: Retail sales in April disappointed, with Bureau Statistics figures showing

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Speaker 2: that spending fell zero point one percent in the month,

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Speaker 2: even after consumers had received the benefits of the February

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Speaker 2: rate cut. What was a funny month? Really? Like we

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Speaker 2: had easter, we had Anzac, there were two long weekends,

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Speaker 2: but that's actually normally good for retail because people travel,

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Speaker 2: they spend more. It just didn't happen this time. Spending

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Speaker 2: per person, when adjusted for inflation, is now stagnant. The

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Speaker 2: one strong state was Queensland in the aftermath of Cyclone Alfred.

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Speaker 2: The biggest falls they came into apartment stores and clothing.

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Speaker 1: The bad news was also in the construction sector, wasn't it,

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Speaker 1: with building approval stalling.

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Speaker 2: Yes. In fact, April building approvals fell nearly six percent,

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Speaker 2: much worse than expected given by a big drop in

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Speaker 2: apartments and units. It takes building approvals back to the

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Speaker 2: lowest level since August last year. That's very disappointing. We

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Speaker 2: thought there was some momentum in that market. Now the

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Speaker 2: monthly figures do jump around a bit, but over three months,

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Speaker 2: building approvals are runing about a one hundred and eighty

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Speaker 2: seven thousand per anum pace. That's well below the federal

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Speaker 2: government government's target of two hundred and forty thousand per num.

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Speaker 2: So what we've got is a GDP for the March quarter,

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Speaker 2: which isn't expected to be real good. In April, we

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Speaker 2: had retail sales slowing, In fact, they went backwards. We

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Speaker 2: had building approvals disappointing, they went backwards. We've also had

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Speaker 2: business investment disappointing. You put all that together, it just

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Speaker 2: looks like the economy is in a bit of a funk.

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Speaker 1: There's really nothing that positive anywhere in any of that.

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Speaker 2: No, I'm trying to kind of disagree with you, but

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Speaker 2: generally it's not great. We know the Reserve Bank is

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Speaker 2: paying more attention now to the slowdown in growth, less

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Speaker 2: worried about inflation. We found that out from the Reserve

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Speaker 2: Bank Governor Michelle Bullet recently. The run of data suggests

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Speaker 2: that's a very good course of action to make. These

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Speaker 2: the economic growth figures, if they disappoint, will certainly put

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Speaker 2: pressure on the Reserve Bank to cut next month. They

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Speaker 2: meet on the seventh and eighth of July, so definitely

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Speaker 2: pressure to do something about rates if, particularly if on

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Speaker 2: Wednesday these growth figures disappoint.

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Speaker 1: Okay, what's going on in financial markets? Where are we?

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Speaker 1: Where do we finished last week? Where do we start today?

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Speaker 2: Well, here's the good news. Really, the local share market

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Speaker 2: had a good run last week, rising three and a

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Speaker 2: half percent to close at eighty four hundred and thirty

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Speaker 2: five points. It's less than two percent off its all

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Speaker 2: time high back in February. Features training suggests it will

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Speaker 2: open flat this morning. Wall Street went from positive to

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Speaker 2: negative over the weekend after Donald Trump announced a doubling

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Speaker 2: of tariffs and steel and aluminium. We're on that shortly.

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Speaker 2: US jobs figures later in the week will give an

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Speaker 2: indication about the health of the world's biggest economy. People

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Speaker 2: are openly talking about a recession in the US now,

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Speaker 2: that's not good news. Reflecting those concerns, cryptocurrencies have come back.

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Speaker 2: Bitcoins now training about one hundred and four thousand US

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Speaker 2: dollars a unit, goals fetching about thirty two to ninety

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Speaker 2: US dollars and ounce.

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Speaker 1: I should have mentioned actually before we left the economy

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Speaker 1: that fear and greed the weak ahead comes up after

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Speaker 1: the show where you dive into all of this with

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Speaker 1: our resident economist Stephen Coculis.

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Speaker 2: Yes, we do plenty going on in the economy at

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Speaker 2: the moment. And Stephen, you know, the best person, certainly

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Speaker 2: our ecosphere to talk about what's happening in the economy.

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Speaker 2: And we ask him about where we're up to and

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Speaker 2: that data that came out last week, what he makes

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Speaker 2: of it, and what's going to happen interest rates, and

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Speaker 2: he's kind of fairly clear on what he thinks will

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Speaker 2: happen there now.

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Speaker 1: Quick little shout out sewn to the Aussie dollar, A yeah,

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Speaker 1: showing a bit of strength gat from the fall in

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Speaker 1: the US dollar.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, basically, Donald Trump's policies are knocking the US dollar

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Speaker 2: around tough for investors. They're kind of looking for other

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Speaker 2: currencies to park their money. That's helping the Aussie dollar.

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Speaker 2: It's up about eight percent against the green back in

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Speaker 2: a little over a month, also higher against the Japanese

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Speaker 2: yen and Swiss frank. It has done better against the

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Speaker 2: Euro and UK pound over the last month, though it

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Speaker 2: still remains relatively weak. Now. I don't know why I'm

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Speaker 2: suddenly interested in the euro, the Aussie against the year

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Speaker 2: in the UK pounds.

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Speaker 1: But how long till you leave, Sean?

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Speaker 2: There's a lot of time. There's two months for that

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Speaker 2: oussie to make a comeback.

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Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, maybe all right, Look, I know that it's

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Speaker 1: still a while until you head off, but you know it,

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Speaker 1: it's not a long time until Sean.

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Speaker 2: What's that, Michael?

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Speaker 1: Until our big live event later this week three more sleeps.

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Speaker 1: In fact, Thursday night, we are going to be doing

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Speaker 1: our first ever live public recording of Fear and Greed's

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Speaker 1: weekend edition, where anything and everything could possibly go wrong.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's exactly right. So much so I was talking

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Speaker 2: to my kids about it over the weekend and three

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Speaker 2: of them have said, Oh, I think I'm going to

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Speaker 2: go and that looked laugh at your dad. It's great.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for not coming to support you. They are to

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Speaker 1: witness what could possibly happen. It's going to be a

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Speaker 1: great night. If you're in Sydney, we would love to

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Speaker 1: see you. Do need to book a ticket. Tickets are

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Speaker 1: free though, and I will put a link in today's

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Speaker 1: show notes as well. You can get them through event

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Speaker 1: bright but join us please. It also doubles with Doubles Michael. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: as a launch of your book, Michael's second book on

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Speaker 1: the shelves tomorrow.

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Speaker 2: Actually that's right. We want to get them tomorrow and

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Speaker 2: read it before Thursday night and then really ask the

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Speaker 2: insightful questions. After the show, I'll spend half an hour

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Speaker 2: or so indewing Michael about being an author and the

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Speaker 2: book and how he comes up with some of these

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Speaker 2: weird and wonderful characters. I'm looking forward to.

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Speaker 1: That should be fun, all the perfect days as the

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Speaker 1: name of the book out tomorrow, but please, yeah, join

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Speaker 1: us on Thursday night. It'll be great fun. Sean, We'll

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Speaker 1: take a quick break. We'll be back in a moment

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Speaker 1: with the rest of the day's business news. Sean Trade

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Speaker 1: Minister Don Farrell yesterday hit out at Donald Trump's decision

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Speaker 1: to double tariff's on Ozzie steel and aluminium, calling it

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Speaker 1: an unfriendly act.

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Speaker 2: In fact, have the weekend, Donald Trump announced plans to

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Speaker 2: increase tariffs on imports of steel from twenty five to

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Speaker 2: fifty percent. That's all steel, not just Ozzie steel, I suppose,

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Speaker 2: but you know, we're only worried about ours. Trump says

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Speaker 2: he's trying to further secure the steel industry in the

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Speaker 2: United States. That's despite a court ruling last week that

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Speaker 2: tried to stop the unilateral application of tariffs. Australian producers

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Speaker 2: exported four hundred and fourteen million dollars worth of iron

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Speaker 2: and steel to the US last year four hundred and

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Speaker 2: eighteen million dollars of voluminium. Prime Minister Anthony Alberizi is

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Speaker 2: now under pressure to take up the issue with the

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Speaker 2: US President. Alberizi is due to meet Trump next month.

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Speaker 1: It's interesting that the courts did say, hey, you can't

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Speaker 1: do this, you've overstepped the mark. And then obviously there

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Speaker 1: was the appeal and the court said Okay, it can

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Speaker 1: continue while the appeal is underway, and then the President

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Speaker 1: has come out with this double is not backing down,

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Speaker 1: is he?

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Speaker 2: No? Now? Having said that, the court opinion very much

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Speaker 2: talked about the unilateral application of tariff's I'm not sure

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Speaker 2: that it actually related to specific sectors like this, so

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Speaker 2: there might be wiggle room. Notwithstanding that, yeah, Donald Trump,

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Speaker 2: it's not like, oh, that's what the court said. Let's

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Speaker 2: just back off for a while.

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Speaker 1: Wait to see where this ends up.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: No, no, no, let's push your head now. Just staying on

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Speaker 1: Australian US relations. Sean Anthony Abernezi has pushed back on

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Speaker 1: US Defense Secretary Pete Hegserth's calls for Australia to ramp

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Speaker 1: up its defense spending to counter China's growing assertiveness in

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Speaker 1: the Indo Pacific region. He made the request of Defense

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Speaker 1: Minister Richard Miles on Friday. Yesterday, albanez He defended Australian

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Speaker 1: defense spending and policy settings. He said the government will

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Speaker 1: determine Australia's defense policy and will also invest in relationships

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Speaker 1: in the region. Sean, it was a big weekend for auctions.

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Speaker 1: Almost three thousand homes across the capital cities going under

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Speaker 1: the hammer, though prices aren't exactly surging.

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Speaker 2: No, so the preliminary clearance rate fell attached to seventy percent.

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Speaker 2: Melbourne was again one of the better performers, clearance for

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Speaker 2: seventy two point four percent, notwithstanding it had most homes

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Speaker 2: going to market. Sydney was around seventy, Brisbane sixty five.

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Speaker 2: Adelaide was an interesting one fifty five percent. That's the

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Speaker 2: worst in about five years or four and a half

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Speaker 2: years or so in Adelaide. So the clearance but the

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Speaker 2: overall clearance rates about seventy percent. So what's that mean

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Speaker 2: for how prices? Well, totality's National Home Value Index, whereas

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Speaker 2: another zero point five percent in May. That takes the

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Speaker 2: national index one point seven percent higher over the first

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Speaker 2: five months of the year, one point seven percent over

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Speaker 2: five months. So what's that annualize that you're getting less

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Speaker 2: than four percent growth. It's probably what house prices should

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Speaker 2: do over the long term, but we've had such good

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Speaker 2: years recently. It's just a bit disappointing, wouldn't you again.

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Speaker 1: When you're used to there's jumbo, yes, the booms, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's rainning at about four percent or less The gains

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Speaker 1: were broad based, with every capital city posting a rise

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Speaker 1: of at least zero point four percent through the month.

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Speaker 2: If we look at dwelling values over the last twelve months,

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Speaker 2: only Melbourne and Canberra have gone backwards. What is interesting

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Speaker 2: is that capital city dwelling values are kind of converging,

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Speaker 2: so the gap between the highest change and the lowest

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Speaker 2: change is coming together. It's less than ten percentage points now.

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Speaker 2: It hasn't been that way for about four years or so.

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Speaker 2: So the boom markets of Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth are

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Speaker 2: coming back to the pack, Melbourne in particular, but Sydney

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Speaker 2: too picking up.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, because it was interesting for a while there. It

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Speaker 1: wasn't just a two speed market. It was actually kind

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Speaker 1: of like a three or four speed market really, and

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Speaker 1: so it does feel like it is settling back to

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Speaker 1: something more akin to normal now. The internet advertising market

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Speaker 1: SEAN in Australia continues to searge, with spend reaching four

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Speaker 1: point two billion dollars in the March quarter. That's a

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Speaker 1: big number. The IAB Australian Internet Advertising Revenue Report that's

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Speaker 1: a big mouthful, shows that video advertising fueled a twelve

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Speaker 1: percent jump in advertising and almost three dollars and every

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Speaker 1: ten dollars is spent on video. Search revenue also rose,

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Speaker 1: though nowhere near what video did. Classified listings rose again

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Speaker 1: well below what video did. Audio Investment we like this one.

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Speaker 1: We are audio Please invest reported in an increase in

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Speaker 1: spend of eighteen percent year or near the top spenders retailers,

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Speaker 1: auto finance, fast moving consumer goods think you know, fast food, takeaway,

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Speaker 1: stuff like that, and insurance. I mentioned this at the

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Speaker 1: top of the show. The afr's annual rich list is out,

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Speaker 1: and while some of the wealthiest people in the country

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Speaker 1: have gone backwards, the total value of the two hundred

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Speaker 1: largest fortunes has actually jumped seven percent to six hundred

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Speaker 1: and sixty eight billion dollars. Once again, Gina Reinhart right

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Speaker 1: at the top of the list.

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Speaker 2: I'm just trying to think. So Elon Musk is worth

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Speaker 2: two fifty billion US, so that's four hundred The next

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Speaker 2: place I reckon the top three US guys, possibly the

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Speaker 2: top two US would be the same value as Australia's

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Speaker 2: top two hundred.

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Speaker 1: That is a staggering stat Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't be far wrong, like we maybe they're just

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Speaker 2: a bit short of that. Yeah, but not much anyways.

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Speaker 2: Six years and o Raw gena Ryan Hart, the iron

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Speaker 2: ore magnate, has been a number one. Her fortunees estimated

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Speaker 2: to be thirty eight billion dollars lower than twelve months

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Speaker 2: ago thanks to weaker iron ore prices. Other iron ore

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Speaker 2: magnets to go backwards with Andrew and Nikola Forrest, their

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Speaker 2: respective values fell twenty four percent. In fact, Andrew Forrest

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Speaker 2: actually fell out of the top ten. Those two because

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Speaker 2: they're divorced or separated. Now they've counted individually. Ben Court

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Speaker 2: chief executive Ivan Basenburg also went backwards on the on

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Speaker 2: iron ore prices. The biggest drop among the uber ridge

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Speaker 2: was mineral Resources Chris Ellison. He's had a tough twelve months.

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Speaker 2: His fortune fell fifty nine percent. In order of the

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Speaker 2: richest ossies Gena Ryan Hart, Harry Trigabough, Property Toy, Anthony

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Speaker 2: Pratt and family. Don't laugh, Visy Cardboard and a friend

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Speaker 2: of Doal Trump.

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Speaker 1: Yep, not only because he is. He's never far from

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Speaker 1: the headlines these days because of his friendship or relationship

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Speaker 1: I suppose with President and his appearance at the met Gala,

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Speaker 1: remember you.

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Speaker 2: See so that outfit was spectacular.

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Speaker 1: He's gone a couple of years now, and he really

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Speaker 1: does go all out. If you haven't seen it, Google,

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Speaker 1: Anthony Pratt, met Gala, you won't regret.

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Speaker 2: It, or maybe you will, Maybe you will. Fourth far

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Speaker 2: Quiet Lassian fame, and fifth Clive Palmer. Mining is the

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Speaker 2: number one industry you want to get rich, get into mining,

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Speaker 2: number two property.

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Speaker 1: Turning to International News now sean earlier in the show,

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Speaker 1: we were talking about US Defense Secretary Pete Hegsath speaking

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Speaker 1: to Richard Miles about Australia up in defense spending. Also

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Speaker 1: over the weekend, Hegxsath was warning that a Chinese military

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Speaker 1: attack on Taiwan could be imminent. Those were his exact words.

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Speaker 2: Yes, it was part of his argument from America's allies

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Speaker 2: like Australia in the Indo Pacific boosting defense spending. Hegerth

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Speaker 2: so China wants to become a hegemonic power in Asia

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Speaker 2: was acting in a manner that should be an urgent

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Speaker 2: wake up call. I quite any attempt by communist China

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Speaker 2: to conquer Taiwan would result in devastating consequences for the

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Speaker 2: Indo Pacific and the world. Now, US intelligence officials and

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Speaker 2: military officers have said Jijingping has told the Chinese military

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Speaker 2: to develop the capability to invade Taiwan by twenty twenty seven.

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Speaker 2: They do not think he is going to do it yet,

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Speaker 2: we have very senior US authorities, the Defense Secretary saying

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Speaker 2: that it could be imminent. When it comes to defense

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Speaker 2: and war, this is another step up from tariffs. Right, tariffs,

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Speaker 2: you can say this is what we're going to do,

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Speaker 2: and you can sort of pretend that it's at am

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Speaker 2: but claim. I think when you're talking about real people's

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Speaker 2: lives at state like this, I think it's very dangerous.

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Speaker 1: Now, Ryan AirBoss Michael O'Leary has qualified for share options

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Speaker 1: worth more than one hundred million euros, which is what

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Speaker 1: two hundred million dollars or thereabouts, after the airlines shares

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Speaker 1: hit a key performance target, paving the way for one

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Speaker 1: of the biggest payouts in European corporate history.

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Speaker 2: Shares and the Lows Cost carrier closed at twenty three

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Speaker 2: point seventy four euros last week, meaning they've closed at

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Speaker 2: more than twenty one euros for twenty eight consecutive days.

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Speaker 2: That's one of the two conditions attached to a Leary's

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Speaker 2: bumper pay deal. According to the FT the other one,

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Speaker 2: the sixty four year old has to stay at Ryan

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Speaker 2: Air until the end of until July twenty twenty eight

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Speaker 2: to collect those options. They're actually worth one hundred and

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Speaker 2: eleven million Euro and that works out at about two hundred

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Speaker 2: and thirty million Ossie. It's part of incentive scheme agreed

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Speaker 2: in at twenty nineteen A Leary. I don't know whether

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Speaker 2: you know much about him, pugnacious, shall we say, great word.

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Speaker 2: He's defended his win, his win four he said, I

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Speaker 2: think we're delivering exceptional value for Ryan shareholders in an

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Speaker 2: era when premiership footballers or the managers are getting paid

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Speaker 2: twenty million to twenty five million euro a year. I'm

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Speaker 2: not quite sure how that works. So I'm not sure

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Speaker 2: why that's a defense of his salary.

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Speaker 1: But anyway, I don't know quite where how that all

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Speaker 1: fits together. But it's a great story. Now after the show,

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Speaker 1: of course, we've got Fear and Greed the week ahead

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Speaker 1: and then an interview coming up with Frank Dannielli and

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Speaker 1: Christian Sampson from m Financial.

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Speaker 2: It's all about co lending and it's sort of the

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Speaker 2: next evolution in private credit. So what MA Financial has done,

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Speaker 2: They've done a JV with a US crowd Monroe Capital

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Speaker 2: and a Japanese based organization SMBC to get into co lending.

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Speaker 2: And what's interesting about is how co lending works, but

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Speaker 2: also is this the next evolution in private credit and

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Speaker 2: does it come to Australia And so we talk to

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Speaker 2: Christian and Frank all about that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, plenty of good listening coming up in the Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed

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Speaker 1: dot com today, which is where you sign up for

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Speaker 1: that free daily newsletter. Thank you Sean, Thank you Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Monday, the second of June twenty twenty five. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast and please join us online

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: And that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.