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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Fear and Greed business Interview. I'm Sean Alma.

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Speaker 1: Last week Donald Trump began imposing his Liberation Day tariffs

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Speaker 1: on friend and foes alike. While Australia is yet to

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Speaker 1: receive a so called tariff letter, presumably one is on

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Speaker 1: the way ahead of the implementation date of one August.

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Speaker 1: What should investors make of these new tariffs? How should

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Speaker 1: they respond to help finanswers to these questions? I welcome

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Speaker 1: to Fear and Greed, Damien Hennessy ahead of asset Allocation

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Speaker 1: at Zenith Investment Partners. Damien, Welcome to Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 2: Thanks JN. Thanks very much for having me.

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Speaker 1: Before we get to the investing part, broadly, what do

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Speaker 1: tariffs and what's going on in the global economy or

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Speaker 1: what's that mean for the global economy? What's the macro

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Speaker 1: background for investors to consider?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think, as you highlighted, tariffs has been a

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Speaker 2: dominant feature since really since the beginning of April. So

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Speaker 2: when you think about the market tends to think about

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Speaker 2: what the average tariff freid is likely to be in

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Speaker 2: the That's the way they determine what the impact might

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Speaker 2: be and suppose if you go back to early April

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Speaker 2: when the tariffs were initially announced by President Trump, the

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Speaker 2: average tarifright looked like it was going to be something

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Speaker 2: like twenty eight percent. Remember it's been two and a

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Speaker 2: half percent for the past thirty years, so this is

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Speaker 2: an enormous increase in the average tariff right. Of course,

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Speaker 2: that's changed over the period that when as low as

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Speaker 2: or came by May, when the tariffs on China were

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Speaker 2: cut back from remember one hundred and forty five down

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Speaker 2: to twenty to thirty percent, it meant the average tarifreight

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Speaker 2: in the US was now closer to fifteen percent, and

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Speaker 2: markets like that. But of course since then and over

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Speaker 2: the last few days, we've had various announcements of higher

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Speaker 2: tariffs across Japan, Career, Vietnam, and Brazil, and so it

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Speaker 2: leaves the average tarifreight a bit higher. So cut to

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Speaker 2: the chase, what it means most likely is a lower

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Speaker 2: growth outlook and a higher inflation outlook, the so called

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Speaker 2: stagflationary impact if you like.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so who pays the tariffs right and how should

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Speaker 1: investors respond? So let's start with who pays it, because

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Speaker 1: I'm sure the investment part kind of comes back to

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Speaker 1: who pays them.

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Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, Look, maybe i'll use an example, so think

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Speaker 2: of a think of a washing machine. I don't know

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Speaker 2: why I think of washing machine, but let's talk about that.

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Speaker 1: So pretty appropriate, I think.

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Speaker 2: Very appropriate. So it comes into the US, say it

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Speaker 2: one hundred dollars safe, let's say, from China, and that's

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Speaker 2: paid for by the importer, so they're paid one hundred dollars.

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Speaker 2: They then on sell it. They want to take their

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Speaker 2: profit margin. They sell it on to the whole saler

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Speaker 2: at say one hundred and fifty dollars. The whole saler

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Speaker 2: then sells it onto the retailer's let's in this example

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Speaker 2: use two hundred dollars. So everyone's making their roughly a

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Speaker 2: fifty percent margin, and the retailer then sells it to

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Speaker 2: the end consumer for three hundred dollars. That's where things

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Speaker 2: were pre April two. So post April two, the twenty

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Speaker 2: percent tariff on that same washing machine. The importer pays

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Speaker 2: it initially, but of course they want to if they

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Speaker 2: want to maintain their margin. They're not going to sell

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Speaker 2: it for one hundred and fifty, are they. They're going

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Speaker 2: to sell it for one hundred and eighty. One hundred

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Speaker 2: and eighty will allow them to maintain their margin. And then,

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Speaker 2: of course the wholesale is not going to want to

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Speaker 2: have their profit margin hit, so they're going to up

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Speaker 2: their price in selling it to the retailer. And likewise,

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Speaker 2: the retailer, if they want to maintain their profit margin

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Speaker 2: as it was previously a'd say fifty percent, they're going

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Speaker 2: to sell it onto the consumer at four hundred and eighty.

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Speaker 2: So that fridge has all of a sudden gone up

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Speaker 2: quite considerably to the consumer. So there's your sort of

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Speaker 2: first level direct impact from a tariff consumer pays. However,

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Speaker 2: in a world where typically well in this example, all goods,

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Speaker 2: most goods are getting sort of tariff and in many

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Speaker 2: instances there isn't a domestic alternative to that product, to

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Speaker 2: that good, and so what it means then is if

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Speaker 2: a lot of goods are attracting tariffs, then the real

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Speaker 2: spending power of the US consumer declines. They've got less

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Speaker 2: money to go around much more expensive goods, so they

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Speaker 2: cut back their spending. Or the way this could flow

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Speaker 2: through to the corporate sector is their profit margins then

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Speaker 2: have to take a hit. So the consumer pays ultimately,

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Speaker 2: and probably to a lesser extent, the corporate sector has

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Speaker 2: to pay through lower profit margins. And this is the

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Speaker 2: way tariffs work their way through the economy. It's not,

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Speaker 2: as the Trump administration has said, it's not as if

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Speaker 2: the foreign countries pay the tariff.

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Speaker 1: Okay. So whichever way you look at it, whether the

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Speaker 1: consumer is paying more or the company is taking a

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Speaker 1: bite out of their profit, it's poor for economic growth.

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Speaker 1: As an investor, what do you do? And just broadly, firstly,

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Speaker 1: how do you think about it?

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Speaker 2: So you might be familiar with the term the taco trade,

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Speaker 2: so that's become quite a bit of a joke around markets,

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Speaker 2: but it's been real. So we've seen on a number

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Speaker 2: of occasions when these big tariffs are announced, they're subsequently

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Speaker 2: withdrawn when the markets start to reflect all the uncertainty

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Speaker 2: and the impact on growth and inflation. So when you

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Speaker 2: think about it from the impact on growth and inflation,

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Speaker 2: I think you probably would say that it's a negative.

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Speaker 2: As I mentioned before, it's a negative impact on growth.

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Speaker 2: It tends to lift inflation at the margin and can

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Speaker 2: have an impact on corporate profits. So from an investor's

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Speaker 2: point of view, you've got to weigh up all those factors.

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Speaker 2: But in addition to that, you've got to weigh up

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Speaker 2: whether those tariffs are going to be sustained or not.

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Speaker 2: And this is where it's highly uncertain for investors.

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Speaker 1: Stay with me, Damien it we'll be back in a minute.

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Speaker 1: I'm speaking to Damien. How does the head of asset

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Speaker 1: allocation at Enyth Investment Partners. Before the break you were

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Speaker 1: I think the last word you used was uncertain and

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Speaker 1: uncertainty kills financial markets. People don't like that. So let's

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Speaker 1: talk about specifically how to invest. And I want to

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Speaker 1: come to asset allocation because in many returns actually acid

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Speaker 1: allocation as much as it is you know the stocks

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Speaker 1: you pick or the bonds you pick. So start with

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Speaker 1: equities if you want to balanced portfolio, and sorry, if

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Speaker 1: you want a good PORTFOI balance. It's got a specific

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Speaker 1: meaning in investing, and I don't actually want that. Like

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Speaker 1: if you have a decent portfolio in your mind, Damien,

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Speaker 1: what should you be doing about equity's local and international?

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Speaker 2: So when it comes again to the tariff question and

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Speaker 2: the impact of tariff's on markets, I suppose, on the

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Speaker 2: one hand, equity so earnings can stay up relatively high

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Speaker 2: as long as, as I said before, profit margins don't

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Speaker 2: take a big hit. So it depends on how the

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Speaker 2: consumer reacts, and if the consumer pull their spending habits in,

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Speaker 2: then that will ultimately flow through to equity markets. But

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Speaker 2: it's interesting if you look at the performance of equities

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Speaker 2: over the last say couple of months, and particularly while

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Speaker 2: I'll start with the US, you've seen the return of

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Speaker 2: the Magnificent six or seven. They've started to produce really

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Speaker 2: strong returns once again, and the reason for that is

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Speaker 2: they're not that much impacted by tariffs. That's part of

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Speaker 2: the reason, and their earnings growth continues on despite the uncertainty.

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Speaker 2: The other I guess larger part of the US market

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Speaker 2: that's probably more sensitive to the tariff increases. So we

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Speaker 2: would sort of feel that, yeah, US equities can keep

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Speaker 2: doing okay, but you'll probably be very careful about the

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Speaker 2: sectors that you're involved in. Don't be investing in those

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Speaker 2: that are impacted by tariffs, and those sectors tend to

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Speaker 2: be financial. Some of the tech sector can do reasonably well.

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Speaker 2: What we would also advocate is broadening out your exposures

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Speaker 2: out of just US equities alone. So Europe seems to

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Speaker 2: be really well positioned. Yes, they'll be hit by tariffs,

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Speaker 2: but on the other side of the coin, they are

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Speaker 2: busily spending on infrastructure and defense, or at least will

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Speaker 2: be over the years ahead, so that's a positive. And

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Speaker 2: of course they've got lower interest rates, as Trump keeps

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Speaker 2: pointing out, they've cut rates about eight times, so Europe

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Speaker 2: is reasonably well positioned, and closer to home domestically, well,

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Speaker 2: we're not that we're not hit that much by the

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Speaker 2: tariff policy, and in fact, I would think that the

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Speaker 2: impact of tarifs would tend to be more disinflationary here

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Speaker 2: in Australia, and the reason for that is China and

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Speaker 2: other countries, if they can't be selling as much to

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Speaker 2: the US, will probably divert some of that back to

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Speaker 2: those exports back to Australia at potentially lower prices. So

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Speaker 2: that's sort of good for the domestic economy because it

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Speaker 2: takes inflation lower, allows the RBA to to step in

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Speaker 2: and possibly cut rates a couple more times this year.

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Speaker 2: So overall, equities look, okay, I think it's now time

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Speaker 2: where you can really make some good decisions around what

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Speaker 2: sectors you're in. Less impacted by tariffs and broaden out

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Speaker 2: your country allocations. Bonds. Bonds tricky are not going to

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Speaker 2: always provide the diversification that you have become used to,

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Speaker 2: and the reason for that is that stickiness and inflation

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Speaker 2: as a result of tariff. So yes, you've got to

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Speaker 2: have some I think in the portfolio for that recessionary

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Speaker 2: risk that it always lurks out there, But they're not

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Speaker 2: going to provide your diversification if we get a bit

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Speaker 2: of an uplift in inflation.

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Speaker 1: Okay, what about real assets, property, infrastructure, those sorts of

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Speaker 1: assets listed and unlisted.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think they're well positioned. So if you were

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Speaker 2: to say to me growth is going to be a

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Speaker 2: little bit lower and inflation is going to be a

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Speaker 2: bit stickier or a bit higher, I would immediately go, well, yeah,

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Speaker 2: real assets look well positioned for that that they're a

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Speaker 2: function of real yields, and real yields are at levels

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Speaker 2: that are fair value if you like. So, yes, we

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Speaker 2: would tend to have a preference for real assets.

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Speaker 1: Okay, and then alternatives outside real assets.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's such a wide range of different exposures that

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Speaker 2: you can have in there. I suppose some of them

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Speaker 2: have a role, you know, those that provide sort of

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Speaker 2: tail risk hedging characteristics, you know, in the event that

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Speaker 2: we're all wrong and the markets take a massive hit

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Speaker 2: from tariff. So yeah, be very specific, and it's very

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Speaker 2: very strategy and fund manager driven that part of the market.

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Speaker 1: Okay, the other interesting we don't talk much about currency.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure you talk about currencies all the time, but

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Speaker 1: you know, we talk about asset classes. But currency can

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Speaker 1: make such a big difference to your ultimate return and

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Speaker 1: how you treat currencies, whether you hedge or not. What's

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Speaker 1: your take on the Aussie dollar for Australian investors.

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Speaker 2: I think right now it's more about US dollar, not

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Speaker 2: so much Ossie dollar. So it's US dollar against everything else.

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Speaker 2: US dollar has been very expensive and strong for a

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Speaker 2: number of years. I think the current administration the US

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Speaker 2: probably prefers a weaker US dollar and most of the

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Speaker 2: policy announcements are probably leading that way. So tariff policy,

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Speaker 2: to the extent it reduces the deficit, probably means a

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Speaker 2: lower US dollar, less requirement for money to flow into

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Speaker 2: the US. The concerns over future Fed independence that tends

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Speaker 2: to undermine the case for US dollar strength. So I

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Speaker 2: think it's more about that. So from a portfolio perspective,

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Speaker 2: I would suggest, and what we have been doing is

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Speaker 2: increasing our hedge ratio, so being a little bit more

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Speaker 2: in Aussie dollars and a little bit less in foreign currency.

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Speaker 2: But again it's more of a you'd prefer to hedge

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Speaker 2: the US dollar positions rather than the Euro and the

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Speaker 2: end which those currencies also look quite cheap.

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Speaker 1: We're totally out of time, Damian. In fact, for about

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Speaker 1: two minutes over time. Whoever, bottom line here as an

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Speaker 1: investor in Australia, what is it?

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Speaker 2: Well, it sticks stick to your long term plan. There

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Speaker 2: will be some volatility I think over the months ahead

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Speaker 2: because markets are finally priced. But I would suggest to

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Speaker 2: investors stay reasonably well diversified. Only put positions on where

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Speaker 2: you have a sort of a strong conviction around the

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Speaker 2: medium term economic outlook.

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Speaker 1: Damien, thank you for talking to Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 2: Thank you very much.

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Speaker 1: This is the Fear and Greed Business Interview. Remember we

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Speaker 1: are not an investment podcast and this is not investment advice.

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Speaker 1: If you want to invest, we always recommend visiting a

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Speaker 1: financial advisor. Join us every morning for the full episode

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Speaker 1: of Fear and Greed Business News you can use. I'm

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Speaker 1: Sean Elmer. Enjoy your day,