1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:02,680 Speaker 1: This podcast was recorded on the land of the Gatigel 2 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: people of the Uran nation. 3 00:00:08,360 --> 00:00:11,440 Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to the Real Story with Joe hildurand 4 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:14,160 Speaker 2: my God, it is just the biggest news week of 5 00:00:14,200 --> 00:00:19,079 Speaker 2: all time. Iran's ambassador to Australia has been expelled, the 6 00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:22,760 Speaker 2: first time since World War II the Australian government has 7 00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:29,159 Speaker 2: expelled a foreign ambassador. This is absolutely huge. Plus what 8 00:00:29,520 --> 00:00:31,600 Speaker 2: was going to be the biggest story of the week. 9 00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:36,199 Speaker 2: Our defense minister goes to the US but can't get 10 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 2: a meeting with their defense minister or canny. And China 11 00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:46,400 Speaker 2: could have control of sixty percent of the world's computer 12 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:51,239 Speaker 2: chips if it invades Taiwan, would this mean that it 13 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 2: had finally eliminated all its competition and had absolute world domination? 14 00:00:55,960 --> 00:00:59,000 Speaker 2: And is it about to do that? All that coming up? 15 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:09,680 Speaker 2: So yeah, look, we promise you world War three every 16 00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:12,720 Speaker 2: week on this podcast, and every week we managed to 17 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:15,080 Speaker 2: resolve it for you. But this week it is World 18 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:17,959 Speaker 2: War three times three. So I've got all the big 19 00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:23,240 Speaker 2: major conflicts all sort of coming together in this weird 20 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 2: sort of conflagration of news. We've got China, we've got 21 00:01:27,160 --> 00:01:29,560 Speaker 2: Iran and the Middle East, and we've got still the 22 00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:35,200 Speaker 2: Russia Ukraine war bubbling away in the background of both, 23 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:40,400 Speaker 2: and we've got our defense minister heading off to Washington 24 00:01:40,520 --> 00:01:45,120 Speaker 2: to meet with well who and why. So let's try 25 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:48,160 Speaker 2: to solve that little riddle first. Richard Miles is, of 26 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:52,160 Speaker 2: course Australia's Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister, and he 27 00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:57,720 Speaker 2: very suddenly declared on Sunday he was jetting off to 28 00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:03,200 Speaker 2: the US and he was going to meet with Marco Rubio, 29 00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 2: the Secretary of State, JD Vance, the Vice President, and 30 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 2: of course his counterpart, which you would always do if 31 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:14,800 Speaker 2: a minister goes to another country. Diplomatic protocols, even the 32 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:19,240 Speaker 2: few that remain, state that you're always going to meet 33 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:22,840 Speaker 2: your counterpart. If you don't, it's a snub, and a 34 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:26,400 Speaker 2: snub in geopolitical terms, is very very bad. It means 35 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:31,160 Speaker 2: you no longer talking, no more talkie talkie. So he 36 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:33,799 Speaker 2: goes over there in a big rush. No one knew 37 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 2: this was coming out to clear his whole week of meetings, 38 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:39,600 Speaker 2: so this was not something that was planned. He had 39 00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:43,280 Speaker 2: a full week of ministerial duties lined up here in 40 00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:47,360 Speaker 2: Australia and he just wipes them all from his diary. 41 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:51,040 Speaker 2: And jumps on a plane to the US. So what 42 00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:55,280 Speaker 2: is going on. Obviously he needs to meet with the 43 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:59,960 Speaker 2: Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, who is, of course former soldier 44 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:04,440 Speaker 2: and former Fox News host, controversial choice for defense secretaries, 45 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:07,640 Speaker 2: obviously very hawkish. It's a man who you know doesn't 46 00:03:07,720 --> 00:03:09,919 Speaker 2: leave you wondering what he thinks about stuff. It was 47 00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:13,480 Speaker 2: him who first declared at an event that he attended 48 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:16,360 Speaker 2: with Miles in Singapore that Australia had to do more 49 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:21,119 Speaker 2: and spend more on its military, which is an unusual 50 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:24,200 Speaker 2: thing for another country to say about another country in 51 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 2: front of that country's minister. In a third country. Anyway, 52 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:32,480 Speaker 2: the government, the US government does do things a little 53 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 2: differently these days. So given that Miles has dropped everything, 54 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 2: literally dropped every meeting, every appointment, and jumped on a 55 00:03:41,800 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 2: plane to meet Pete Egserth, it did seem passing strange 56 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:49,880 Speaker 2: to a lot of people that there was no meeting 57 00:03:49,960 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 2: with Pete Exserth, that no actual time had been locked in, 58 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 2: that there wasn't actually a fixed appointment that he had 59 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:02,320 Speaker 2: with This was clearly someone from the US has said 60 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 2: you've got to get over here and meet or someone 61 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 2: had said from here, perhaps having heard something that you've 62 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:11,280 Speaker 2: got to get over there and start talking to people. 63 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:12,960 Speaker 2: But again, you don't just rock up. This is what 64 00:04:13,000 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 2: people say. Oh why it doesn't, Amptony Albanizi, You just 65 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:16,600 Speaker 2: you know, just rock up to the White House and 66 00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:18,960 Speaker 2: knock on the door and say, ah, because it is 67 00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:21,640 Speaker 2: Donald Trump home, can I have a man? You've you've 68 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:25,520 Speaker 2: got to have these things scheduled. And of course he 69 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:29,239 Speaker 2: had a meeting with Marco Rubio, who's the Secretary of State, 70 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:33,240 Speaker 2: an incredibly important position, just as important arguably as the 71 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 2: Secretary of Defense. And he had a meeting with JD. Vance, 72 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:41,560 Speaker 2: who was Vice president, is more important than either of 73 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:45,479 Speaker 2: those people. So it seems very strange that he would 74 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:48,480 Speaker 2: have a meeting with those two people who are as 75 00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:52,560 Speaker 2: senior and more senior than the Defense Secretary his counterpart, 76 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:56,719 Speaker 2: but not the Defense Secretary himself. Well, by the time 77 00:04:56,800 --> 00:04:58,919 Speaker 2: you listen to this, you'll be pleased to know that, 78 00:04:59,000 --> 00:05:03,320 Speaker 2: in fact, Miles did have a meeting with Pete. He 79 00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 2: seve that. He actually posted some pictures of it on 80 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:09,680 Speaker 2: social media, sort of like proof of life. It's like, 81 00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:11,240 Speaker 2: see I met him. See here's the two of us 82 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 2: in the same room holding up a copy of today's newspaper. 83 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:19,640 Speaker 2: So that's nice notice sort of revelations as to what 84 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:23,200 Speaker 2: they actually discussed. But you probably don't need to guess 85 00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:27,719 Speaker 2: what they discussed because there's only one story in town 86 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 2: the distriyer cares about, and that is orcus, do we 87 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:35,360 Speaker 2: have an ironclad deal with the US or not? And 88 00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:40,039 Speaker 2: of course central to that is can we get our 89 00:05:40,080 --> 00:05:43,359 Speaker 2: Prime minister and the Albanezi and Donald Trump in the 90 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 2: same room together to have a meeting to finally confirm this, 91 00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:50,960 Speaker 2: because of course the longer it goes without our PM 92 00:05:51,440 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 2: and the US President having a meeting, the more people 93 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 2: start to get jittery, and the more they start to 94 00:05:57,400 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 2: fill this nature of bores a vacuum, and so does pauls. 95 00:06:01,000 --> 00:06:05,719 Speaker 2: And so just as nature fills vacuums with I don't 96 00:06:05,720 --> 00:06:09,080 Speaker 2: know nature, politics needs to fill it with politics, and 97 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:13,359 Speaker 2: so people, you know, so an absence, an absence of 98 00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 2: a meeting, people say, why isn't there a meeting, Why 99 00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:17,159 Speaker 2: wouldn't there be a meeting? Why can't you get a meeting? 100 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:19,040 Speaker 2: Is it because he hates this? Is it because you 101 00:06:19,120 --> 00:06:21,160 Speaker 2: know it's like with your you know, it's like when 102 00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:23,400 Speaker 2: your girlfriend hasn't spoken to you for a while. You know, 103 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:25,600 Speaker 2: you can't get a hold of her on the phone. 104 00:06:25,640 --> 00:06:29,560 Speaker 2: You know, she's probably just asleep. You know, she's probably 105 00:06:29,680 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 2: just you know, out of range. She's probably just hanging 106 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:35,520 Speaker 2: out with that guy she's just friends with. But you 107 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:38,560 Speaker 2: start thinking all the bad stuff, you know, you start 108 00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 2: thinking what's going on? And so there's been a lot 109 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:45,960 Speaker 2: of speculation that Males was actually sent to the US 110 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:50,920 Speaker 2: on this kind of rushed emergency mission to make sure 111 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:55,719 Speaker 2: that Albow gets a meeting with Donald Trump the next 112 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:59,520 Speaker 2: time they're at a international event together. And this could 113 00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:02,120 Speaker 2: be the g it could be the Quad meeting whenever 114 00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:06,840 Speaker 2: it comes up. But if there's a summit where there's 115 00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:10,920 Speaker 2: a whole bunch of world leaders including Albo and Donald Trump, 116 00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:15,880 Speaker 2: and Albo and Donald Trump don't have a meeting just 117 00:07:15,920 --> 00:07:18,400 Speaker 2: the two of them at that bigger meeting, that is 118 00:07:18,400 --> 00:07:21,360 Speaker 2: when everyone's going to go, hang on a minute, what's 119 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:24,160 Speaker 2: going on with America and Australia. Why aren't they talking 120 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:26,760 Speaker 2: to each other? And so there's a lot of speculation 121 00:07:26,840 --> 00:07:30,240 Speaker 2: that has been why Richard Miles has been sent as 122 00:07:30,240 --> 00:07:32,440 Speaker 2: a kind of special envoy to set up that meeting, 123 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:34,720 Speaker 2: because of course that meeting never happens unless there's a 124 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 2: whole bunch of meetings below that to set up that meeting, 125 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 2: And the penultimate meeting to set up a meeting like 126 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:46,600 Speaker 2: that would be your deputy and your vice president. So 127 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:50,800 Speaker 2: again this is why it's telling that it's not necessarily 128 00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:56,280 Speaker 2: Miles as Defense minister meeting is American counterpart as Defense minister, 129 00:07:56,520 --> 00:08:01,640 Speaker 2: but Males as deputy Prime Minister meeting jd Vance as 130 00:08:01,680 --> 00:08:04,640 Speaker 2: the vice president. So the right hand men of their 131 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:07,679 Speaker 2: respective leaders talking to each other about whether those leaders 132 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 2: can get together. And of course the one thing we 133 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:12,600 Speaker 2: want to come out of that meeting when it happens, 134 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:18,200 Speaker 2: and my bet is that it's actually waiting for that meeting. 135 00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:21,520 Speaker 2: It is just waiting in the wings to happen. So 136 00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:23,679 Speaker 2: as soon as the meeting happens, then you will get 137 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:28,600 Speaker 2: Donald Trump coming out and saying he's all in on Orcus, 138 00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:32,400 Speaker 2: and that then means we can all relax and go 139 00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:36,120 Speaker 2: back to worrying about just the kind of economic chaos 140 00:08:36,360 --> 00:08:38,880 Speaker 2: that is going on without having to worry about any 141 00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 2: military or strategic chaos on top of that, which is 142 00:08:44,040 --> 00:08:46,960 Speaker 2: the only thing that would be worse. So that's mister 143 00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:49,959 Speaker 2: Marles's trip to Washington. We wish him all the very best. 144 00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:59,520 Speaker 2: Of course, the reason why it is so important that 145 00:08:59,559 --> 00:09:03,560 Speaker 2: we get aucas locked in and have America unequivocally on 146 00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:08,040 Speaker 2: our site in the event of any future conflict is 147 00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 2: because there is every chance there will be a future 148 00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:13,280 Speaker 2: conflict and it will be right in our region. And 149 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:18,280 Speaker 2: that is of course China potentially invading one way or another, 150 00:09:18,440 --> 00:09:23,960 Speaker 2: by you know, subverting the existing Taiwanese government, or by 151 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:26,559 Speaker 2: staging some kind of a coup dressed up as a 152 00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:29,720 Speaker 2: kind of uprising, or by just a you know, a 153 00:09:29,760 --> 00:09:34,600 Speaker 2: full on, good old fashioned military invasion of Taiwan. That 154 00:09:34,720 --> 00:09:36,440 Speaker 2: China is going to do this, It said it's going 155 00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:39,160 Speaker 2: to do it. It is just obviously just watching and 156 00:09:39,280 --> 00:09:43,920 Speaker 2: waiting for a time and a way to do it. 157 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:46,600 Speaker 2: And it was reported just in the last few days 158 00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:51,320 Speaker 2: that if China does take over Taiwan, and this is 159 00:09:51,360 --> 00:09:55,560 Speaker 2: the Taiwanese Taiwaness minister who is warning about this, and 160 00:09:55,559 --> 00:09:59,480 Speaker 2: obviously they're warning the world so that the world doesn't 161 00:09:59,520 --> 00:10:03,200 Speaker 2: let this happen, that China would then have control of 162 00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:07,160 Speaker 2: sixty percent of the world's computer chips. Taiwan obviously is 163 00:10:07,160 --> 00:10:13,400 Speaker 2: an extremely advanced economy, and it is the global leader 164 00:10:13,480 --> 00:10:17,600 Speaker 2: that produces the majority of computer chips in the world. Again, 165 00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:21,800 Speaker 2: not great for beef, not great for bali, not great 166 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:25,439 Speaker 2: for wine, But Taiwan is very very good at producing 167 00:10:25,960 --> 00:10:28,439 Speaker 2: computer chips and it produces a hell of a lot 168 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:33,680 Speaker 2: of them. And the taiwan Is Deputy Foreign Minister, i 169 00:10:33,679 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 2: think it was, came out and said, look, if you 170 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:39,480 Speaker 2: don't protect us, if you let China just take us 171 00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:43,959 Speaker 2: over invaders, that will give China control of sixty percent 172 00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:47,960 Speaker 2: of the computer chips that are produced on the planet. 173 00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:50,439 Speaker 2: Do you really want that to happen? Do you want 174 00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:56,480 Speaker 2: China to basically have a near monopoly on technology the 175 00:10:56,520 --> 00:10:59,840 Speaker 2: world over? Computer technology the world over? That is obviously 176 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:04,240 Speaker 2: pretty terrifying. Thought. Now, that is terrifying, and Donald Trump 177 00:11:04,320 --> 00:11:08,760 Speaker 2: knows that it's terrifying, and that is why he is 178 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 2: actually working hard to try to get the US to 179 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:14,880 Speaker 2: manufacture more of these computer chips. So it's not totally 180 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:19,800 Speaker 2: reliant on Taiwan. But still even if and when that 181 00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:23,120 Speaker 2: ultimately happens, clearly Taiwan is still going to have a 182 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:27,320 Speaker 2: huge amount a huge share of the computer chips, reducing 183 00:11:27,360 --> 00:11:30,040 Speaker 2: the world, and if China gets its hands on them, 184 00:11:30,200 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 2: that will be an absolute game changer. So again that 185 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:37,120 Speaker 2: is a terrifying thought, but it could also be the 186 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:40,880 Speaker 2: key to Taiwan's salvation. And that's of course why the 187 00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:44,319 Speaker 2: minister is raising it. He's saying, look, look at all 188 00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:47,680 Speaker 2: this stuff, Look how valuable we are. Do you really 189 00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:50,800 Speaker 2: want to let us go? So just as this makes 190 00:11:51,679 --> 00:11:55,920 Speaker 2: Taiwan a big, nice, tasty treat for China, China's already 191 00:11:56,000 --> 00:12:00,680 Speaker 2: got ideological and historical reasons for wanting to invade Taiwan. 192 00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 2: It thinks that Taiwan is and always has been a 193 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:05,440 Speaker 2: part of China. Now it can contest the history of that, 194 00:12:05,480 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 2: and it's pretty questionable, but that's the Chinese position, that 195 00:12:08,920 --> 00:12:11,360 Speaker 2: Taiwan should never have been separate from them in the 196 00:12:11,400 --> 00:12:15,600 Speaker 2: first place. But the rest of the world doesn't really 197 00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:17,720 Speaker 2: have a dog in that fight. But if sixty percent 198 00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:20,200 Speaker 2: of the computing chips in the world are on the line, 199 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:23,720 Speaker 2: suddenly the West does have a dog in that fight. 200 00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:25,920 Speaker 2: Suddenly America's got a dog in that fight, no matter 201 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:28,880 Speaker 2: how much it's trying to ramp up production of the 202 00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:31,520 Speaker 2: same thing itself as a kind of you know, as 203 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:34,880 Speaker 2: a kind of fallback strategy as a kind of Plan B. 204 00:12:35,679 --> 00:12:39,120 Speaker 2: Plan A is still very much in Taipei. So this 205 00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:44,840 Speaker 2: makes Taiwan suddenly worth defending, worth throwing military resources at, 206 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:49,320 Speaker 2: worth taking risks, for even risking getting dragged into a 207 00:12:49,360 --> 00:12:52,599 Speaker 2: regional conflict. And we know the US has said to Australia, 208 00:12:52,920 --> 00:12:55,920 Speaker 2: you know, would you be on our side? Would you 209 00:12:56,080 --> 00:12:59,959 Speaker 2: step in if there was a conflict with China over Taiwan. 210 00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:04,600 Speaker 2: So I told you before, We've mentioned before on this 211 00:13:04,640 --> 00:13:07,920 Speaker 2: podcast that the one thing that China is watching more 212 00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:11,640 Speaker 2: than anything else is Russia, and it is watching the 213 00:13:11,760 --> 00:13:16,319 Speaker 2: Russian War against Ukraine, because that is a perfect real 214 00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:21,560 Speaker 2: world dress rehearsal of what could or would happen if 215 00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:25,160 Speaker 2: China was to invade Taiwan. They're almost identical situations. Russia 216 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:27,560 Speaker 2: thinks Ukraine is part of Russia, has always been part 217 00:13:27,559 --> 00:13:29,720 Speaker 2: of Russia, and they're just taking it back and writing 218 00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:32,600 Speaker 2: the history books. And again, you've got a very very 219 00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 2: big power with nuclear weapons and the potential to start 220 00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:39,040 Speaker 2: a global conflict invading a much much smaller power. And 221 00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:41,679 Speaker 2: so the question is what does the West do, and 222 00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:44,960 Speaker 2: most especially what does America do when this happens? If 223 00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:48,720 Speaker 2: America just sits it out and lets the Russians, you know, 224 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:52,280 Speaker 2: gobble up you know, third of Ukraine or what they've 225 00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:56,240 Speaker 2: already invaded or whatever they can get, then China knows 226 00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:59,880 Speaker 2: right that means we can do the same thing with Taiwan. 227 00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:02,440 Speaker 2: They'd probably want to do it while the same guy 228 00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:05,679 Speaker 2: was in charge of America as well. But if America 229 00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:11,640 Speaker 2: says no and steps in and provides security guarantees to 230 00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:18,199 Speaker 2: Ukraine against Russia, then China has to think twice and think, 231 00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:22,280 Speaker 2: all right, well, we don't want World War three, so 232 00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:24,080 Speaker 2: maybe we have to be a bit more careful. Maybe 233 00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:26,560 Speaker 2: we have to kick the can down the road. Maybe 234 00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:29,400 Speaker 2: we wait for a more compliant and less erratic president. 235 00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 2: And what is the thing, the one thing probably more 236 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:40,320 Speaker 2: than anything else, that has attracted interest from the Trump 237 00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 2: administration into Ukraine and the one bargaining chip no pun 238 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:49,680 Speaker 2: intended that Ukraine has offered up and that that Trump 239 00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:54,680 Speaker 2: administration have said that they were always interested in that 240 00:14:54,760 --> 00:14:59,280 Speaker 2: will get America's protection for Ukraine. It's the same thing 241 00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:02,400 Speaker 2: pretty much as these critical minerals that Ukraine just happens 242 00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:04,800 Speaker 2: to be rich in, sort of minerals that go towards 243 00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:09,800 Speaker 2: making these computer chips in Taiwan, the raw materials, and 244 00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:12,560 Speaker 2: Ukraine has said, hey, we've got all this stuff. You 245 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:16,320 Speaker 2: know what, you come and protect us. It's yours. You 246 00:15:16,320 --> 00:15:18,960 Speaker 2: can have it, you can have mining rights, these critical minerals, 247 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:22,840 Speaker 2: and that is the key thing that has got America 248 00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:27,840 Speaker 2: looking more kindly towards even before Trump had his crazy 249 00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:31,280 Speaker 2: meeting with Vladimir Putin which went so badly for Trump 250 00:15:31,280 --> 00:15:34,160 Speaker 2: that that has put him even more on Ukraine side. 251 00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:38,480 Speaker 2: It was these critical minerals and American access to them 252 00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:42,560 Speaker 2: that was the cause of the thawing of relations between 253 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:49,080 Speaker 2: the US and Ukraine and the gradual regaining of US 254 00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:52,040 Speaker 2: support for Ukraine. That was what it was. That was 255 00:15:52,080 --> 00:15:55,960 Speaker 2: what went from that meeting where Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky 256 00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:58,280 Speaker 2: was kicked out of the White House to the two 257 00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:03,320 Speaker 2: of them sitting down together in Europe and actually saying no, no, no, 258 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 2: we're back on track again. So again exact same scenarios, 259 00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:13,600 Speaker 2: a small country being threatened with takeover by a bigger 260 00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:18,240 Speaker 2: country and saying, hey, everybody, rest of the world, we've 261 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:20,840 Speaker 2: got this really precious thing that you all want and 262 00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:23,440 Speaker 2: you all need. Do you really want the bad guys 263 00:16:23,760 --> 00:16:26,280 Speaker 2: to have it. So Taiwan knows exactly what it's doing, 264 00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:30,000 Speaker 2: knows exactly the language to speak, and far from those 265 00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 2: chips being the thing that may lead it to be 266 00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 2: taken over by China, they may just be the one 267 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:44,680 Speaker 2: thing that saves it. And now, of course to the 268 00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:48,600 Speaker 2: biggest story by country mile in Australia, and that is 269 00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:55,840 Speaker 2: the fact that the Iranian government, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, 270 00:16:56,120 --> 00:17:05,200 Speaker 2: the military, theocratic and our terrorist administration of Iran has 271 00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:10,119 Speaker 2: been paying underworld figures, bikey bosses, mob bosses and the 272 00:17:10,320 --> 00:17:16,320 Speaker 2: like to attack Jewish sites in Australia in Sydney and Melbourne, 273 00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:22,080 Speaker 2: a Jewish delicatessen called Lewis's Continental Kitchen in Sydney and 274 00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:26,840 Speaker 2: a synagogue, the Adass Synagogue in Melbourne, and it is 275 00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:29,719 Speaker 2: thought many more. ASIO has been investigating this, it has 276 00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:34,560 Speaker 2: made an assessment that definitely, in its view, these two 277 00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:40,800 Speaker 2: attacks alone in late last year were commissioned and the 278 00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:46,879 Speaker 2: participants funded by the Iranian government, and that has led 279 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:52,600 Speaker 2: to the massive announcement on Tuesday by the Prime Minister 280 00:17:53,040 --> 00:17:57,680 Speaker 2: Anthony Alberanzi that the Iranian ambassador to Australia will now 281 00:17:57,680 --> 00:18:01,639 Speaker 2: be expelled. This is the first expulsion of an ambassador 282 00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:07,200 Speaker 2: to Australia since World War II. It is the strongest 283 00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:11,280 Speaker 2: short of actually declaring war on another country. This is 284 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:16,880 Speaker 2: about as strong an action as you can take against them. 285 00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:20,400 Speaker 2: You've even still got crazies on the site saying, oh no, 286 00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:23,040 Speaker 2: this is all just like a setup so that you 287 00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:28,399 Speaker 2: know we can appease Israel. Just bonkers stuff, but it 288 00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:32,600 Speaker 2: is legit. It is happening. It appears that the reigning 289 00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:38,359 Speaker 2: government paid organized crime figures, different organized crime figures, certain 290 00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:40,520 Speaker 2: amounts of money. In the case of the Sydney attack. 291 00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:45,520 Speaker 2: Get this, twelve grand twelve thousand dollars is what was 292 00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:49,479 Speaker 2: allegedly paid to a crime boss it was already facing 293 00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:56,560 Speaker 2: charges relating to the attack on the little restaurant in 294 00:18:56,640 --> 00:19:02,720 Speaker 2: Sydney on Lewis Continental Kitchen. Is what he was paid 295 00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:07,199 Speaker 2: or was seeking to be paid for orchestrating this attack. So, 296 00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:10,719 Speaker 2: believe it or not, this guy is currently on bail. 297 00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:14,480 Speaker 2: Maybe that will have changed by the time this goes 298 00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:17,280 Speaker 2: to it. This guy has already been investigated for his 299 00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:20,160 Speaker 2: links to that attack. It hadn't been revealed before this 300 00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:25,440 Speaker 2: week that Iran was also involved, But twelve grand was 301 00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:28,639 Speaker 2: all it took. That's pretty It's kind of cheap for 302 00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:34,040 Speaker 2: a terror attack, isn't it. And the most interesting is 303 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:35,800 Speaker 2: the reason he's on bar is because he was able 304 00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:40,040 Speaker 2: to post a two million dollar surety. All right, here's 305 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:43,800 Speaker 2: two million bucks to say I won't go anywhere. So 306 00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:45,760 Speaker 2: for a guy who can put up that kind of 307 00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:51,120 Speaker 2: money to post bail, twelve grand is that's a cup 308 00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:55,880 Speaker 2: of coffee. So you kind of think maybe maybe part 309 00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:57,240 Speaker 2: of it was a bit of a labor of love, 310 00:19:57,440 --> 00:20:01,680 Speaker 2: you know. But the guy they got to do it allegedly, 311 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:06,600 Speaker 2: allegedly allegedly in Melbourne, he is someone who has already 312 00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 2: fled to rac I think he's been extra, either extra 313 00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:13,399 Speaker 2: or just booted out or it's on the run, but 314 00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:17,040 Speaker 2: he's gone back to Iraq. So the Iranians were hiring 315 00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:22,919 Speaker 2: an Iraqi to do their dirty work for them. Now. 316 00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:24,840 Speaker 2: I don't know if you guys are history buffs all night, 317 00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:27,879 Speaker 2: but these two guys, they're not meant to get along. 318 00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:29,639 Speaker 2: They're not to be they're not meant to be in 319 00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:34,600 Speaker 2: cahoots with each other. I mean, Iran and Iraq were 320 00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:36,840 Speaker 2: engaged in a war to the death for a decade 321 00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:40,240 Speaker 2: in the eighties, back when we were on the rocks side. No, 322 00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:42,159 Speaker 2: we're not really on anyone side, or maybe we're on 323 00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:45,159 Speaker 2: a rock side again. Anyway, point being this is what 324 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:47,199 Speaker 2: Iran's been doing. We'll speak to our special guest this 325 00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 2: week about what this all means, what the China stuff 326 00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:55,480 Speaker 2: all means, what Richard Mars's trip to the US all means. 327 00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:58,359 Speaker 2: But it just goes to show how fragile our national 328 00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:03,119 Speaker 2: security is at the moment. And it also goes to 329 00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:06,080 Speaker 2: show all these people say, oh no, there's anti Semitic attacks. 330 00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:09,040 Speaker 2: You know, they were all just a ruse. They were 331 00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:11,879 Speaker 2: all just a hoax. And of course you would have 332 00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:16,600 Speaker 2: heard here first that the caravan in Dural that was 333 00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:20,440 Speaker 2: found with all these explosives in it was pretty much 334 00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:23,440 Speaker 2: a hoax, and that was another organized crime figure as 335 00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:27,280 Speaker 2: out the great josh Hanrahan revealed, who would basically and 336 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:32,080 Speaker 2: this is just bizarre stuff, had basically set up this 337 00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:36,320 Speaker 2: sort of fake terror plot with the explosive and these 338 00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:39,240 Speaker 2: notes on you know, the locations that were going to 339 00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:43,320 Speaker 2: be targeted, just so he could then tip off police 340 00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:47,720 Speaker 2: about it and for that good community minded deed get 341 00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:51,639 Speaker 2: a reduction in his jail sentence, because yes, he somehow 342 00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:56,440 Speaker 2: managed to do all of this from jail. But again, 343 00:21:57,240 --> 00:21:59,240 Speaker 2: this is what happens when you have people who just 344 00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:03,320 Speaker 2: see this issue through their own ideological lens. So you 345 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:06,360 Speaker 2: had people who were jumping up and down saying, see 346 00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:08,520 Speaker 2: this shows there is no anti Semitism, that it's all 347 00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:11,760 Speaker 2: just a hoax and it's all just being made up, 348 00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:14,080 Speaker 2: and the Jewish groups are being hysterical and the real 349 00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:16,679 Speaker 2: you know, the real outrage is what's happening in Gaza. 350 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:20,479 Speaker 2: Blah blah blah blah. Well, yes, that caravan was a hoax, 351 00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:24,840 Speaker 2: that doesn't mean that all of the attacks are a hoax. 352 00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:28,719 Speaker 2: And indeed, the Home Affairs Minister and the Prime Minister, 353 00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:32,040 Speaker 2: both of whom you know a lot of Jewish commentators 354 00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:36,359 Speaker 2: have been saying, aren't tough enough on anti Semitism. In fact, 355 00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:40,920 Speaker 2: they've come out and said, not only are these two 356 00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:45,080 Speaker 2: attacks just some just two of the many that we 357 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:49,520 Speaker 2: think Iran might be behind. Not only that, but also 358 00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:53,000 Speaker 2: we know that there are grassroots even just going after 359 00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:55,680 Speaker 2: Iran for this and stamping out and make sure they 360 00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:59,520 Speaker 2: have no presence in Australia. Even apart from that, we 361 00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:04,840 Speaker 2: also know that there is home grown, real anti semitism 362 00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:11,119 Speaker 2: here in the community, and so don't think that just 363 00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:14,760 Speaker 2: because you know either A the caravan was a hoax 364 00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:20,520 Speaker 2: or B these attacks have been orchestrated by a foreign government, 365 00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:23,440 Speaker 2: which in a way is even scarier that this isn't 366 00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:27,560 Speaker 2: also our own problem that we all have to face, 367 00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:31,800 Speaker 2: because frankly, there's plenty of bad people here as well 368 00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:40,320 Speaker 2: as overseas. Now our guest this week as something of 369 00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:44,160 Speaker 2: a carryover champion. She was an absolute superstar the last 370 00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:46,480 Speaker 2: time we had her on. She is a defense guru. 371 00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:49,159 Speaker 2: She has decades of experience in the Defense Department in Australia, 372 00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:53,880 Speaker 2: as an expert on China, the Middle East, maritime strategy, 373 00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:57,080 Speaker 2: you name it. She's got more degrees than a thermometer. 374 00:23:57,240 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 2: She works at both the A and U and UNS 375 00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:03,879 Speaker 2: you where she heads up various schools of specialty and 376 00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:07,320 Speaker 2: most importantly, she's here right now with us again. Jen Parker, 377 00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:08,520 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Real story. 378 00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:11,959 Speaker 1: How are you hi, I'm great. Don't say that, Timu 379 00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:13,320 Speaker 1: do you'll give me your big head when you start 380 00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:13,800 Speaker 1: reading that. 381 00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:16,320 Speaker 2: Stuff out, Well, you know what, you pretty much solved 382 00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:19,040 Speaker 2: all the world's problems last time, and since we've got 383 00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:21,280 Speaker 2: a few new ones on the horizon, we thought we'd 384 00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:24,800 Speaker 2: get your back to some of them too. We've got 385 00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:27,159 Speaker 2: a kind of tri effecta over the past week. We 386 00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:33,520 Speaker 2: had the Taiwanese Deputy Foreign Minister raising the prospect of 387 00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:37,159 Speaker 2: China invading taking control of the line's share of the 388 00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:42,560 Speaker 2: Earth's computer chips, computer chip manufacturing capabilities. We've then had 389 00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:46,879 Speaker 2: Richard Miles go to Washington in a hell of a 390 00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:50,000 Speaker 2: lot of a hurry, it seems, and before he'd even 391 00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:54,119 Speaker 2: locked in a meeting with his counterpart, the Defense Secretary 392 00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:58,000 Speaker 2: Pete Haigseth. And then of course we've had the bombshell 393 00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:03,880 Speaker 2: news unprecedented, I think, and certainly like nothing we've seen 394 00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:08,240 Speaker 2: since World War Two, that Iran, a foreign government, a 395 00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:12,640 Speaker 2: hostile foreign government, was basically paying criminals to carry out 396 00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:16,520 Speaker 2: what are essentially terror attacks, fire bombings of Jewish sites 397 00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:22,080 Speaker 2: on Australian soil, and the first expulsion of an ambassador 398 00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:27,200 Speaker 2: since nineteen forty five. What the hell is going on? 399 00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:32,360 Speaker 1: Wow? Well, it is depressing when you say it like that, 400 00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:34,240 Speaker 1: And I think if you've got to come up with 401 00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:36,520 Speaker 1: a common thread of all of this, I just think 402 00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:38,760 Speaker 1: it reemphasizes a point that we made I think in 403 00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:42,400 Speaker 1: the last podcast that probably understated point. But the world 404 00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:46,959 Speaker 1: is fundamentally changing, right We are in historic, unprecedented, whatever 405 00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:49,000 Speaker 1: other way you want to describe it. And so what 406 00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:52,920 Speaker 1: we're seeing is, you know, these geopolitical tensions resulting in 407 00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:56,600 Speaker 1: the use of force across the world. We've seen that 408 00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:59,120 Speaker 1: in this concept called hybrid warfare, and this is kind 409 00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:02,600 Speaker 1: of what we've experience in Australia. Of course, it is 410 00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:05,840 Speaker 1: foreign interference, it is terrorism. It is horrific for the 411 00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:08,399 Speaker 1: Jewish community that have been subjected to it, but it 412 00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:11,680 Speaker 1: is also part of a wider trend where states are 413 00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:20,120 Speaker 1: using non state actors, criminal organizations, proxies to achieve security aims. 414 00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:24,080 Speaker 1: And certainly we've seen Iran actually do this around the world. 415 00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:27,440 Speaker 1: I mean in the nineties they targeted the Jewish community 416 00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:30,360 Speaker 1: in Argentina. In more recent times, in the last couple 417 00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:32,840 Speaker 1: of years, we've seen incidents in France where the reigning 418 00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:38,719 Speaker 1: revolution Guard has sponsored criminal organizations to take action against 419 00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:43,440 Speaker 1: some Israeli link businesses. We've seen the Secretary, sorry that 420 00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:46,720 Speaker 1: the National Security Minister, the Defense Security I don't know 421 00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:49,719 Speaker 1: the name, the big guy in the UK, he's responsible 422 00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:52,040 Speaker 1: for security is called Dan Jarvis, come out and say 423 00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:56,000 Speaker 1: that they've suspected about twenty incidents in the last couple 424 00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:59,280 Speaker 1: of years. They think that the Iran has been ramping 425 00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:02,680 Speaker 1: up these attacks since twenty twenty two. There's been issues 426 00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:04,879 Speaker 1: in the US, there's been issues in Turkey. So it's 427 00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:09,600 Speaker 1: part of this broader thing where Iran uses organizations around 428 00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:13,120 Speaker 1: the world to achieve security aims. This is a theme 429 00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:16,199 Speaker 1: of hybrid warfare. Iran is not the only country doing this. 430 00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:19,840 Speaker 1: We've seen Russia doing this across Europe, but certainly it's 431 00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:22,520 Speaker 1: clearly hit home in the last twenty four hours where 432 00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:25,560 Speaker 1: we've become really aware that Australia is not immune to 433 00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:26,359 Speaker 1: these trends. 434 00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:29,720 Speaker 2: So you mentioned Russia. Obviously there was the famous sort 435 00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:34,919 Speaker 2: of case of Russia spreading Russian bots spreading disinformation in 436 00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:39,159 Speaker 2: the US at the twenty sixteen election, and you know, 437 00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:43,119 Speaker 2: whether this was just so sort of confusion or disharmony. 438 00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:47,679 Speaker 2: We've had the recent revelations that a Chinese spy was 439 00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:52,000 Speaker 2: spying on the Chinese diaspora community in Canberra and now 440 00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:55,159 Speaker 2: this obviously Iran has sort of taken things to the 441 00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:59,560 Speaker 2: next level. With these attacks late last year, What is 442 00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:02,320 Speaker 2: there you say that they're trying to achieve their aims? 443 00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:05,240 Speaker 2: Is their aim? Is it A just because they don't 444 00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:09,120 Speaker 2: like Jews, just plain old anti semitism. B because they're 445 00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:15,520 Speaker 2: trying to sow some kind of discord and get Australians anxious, divided, fearful. 446 00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:18,720 Speaker 2: And then if it's either of those two things, how 447 00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:23,840 Speaker 2: does that serve Iran's strategic goals? Is it just purely 448 00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:29,680 Speaker 2: ideological and theocratical religious? Is it because you know, Jews 449 00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:32,280 Speaker 2: are just their religious enemies and they need to be 450 00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:35,680 Speaker 2: wiped out so that, you know, the great Shied Day 451 00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:39,840 Speaker 2: of Revelation can come? Or is there something going on? 452 00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:44,080 Speaker 2: How do they benefit from us being cowed or divided? 453 00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:48,400 Speaker 2: Or these what seem to be terrifying but petty, little 454 00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:53,800 Speaker 2: petty attacks, sort of very localized I guess attacks. Yeah. 455 00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:58,160 Speaker 1: Look, I think why at Irana specifically targeted Australia. Look, 456 00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:00,840 Speaker 1: I don't think will necessarily ever, but I can certainly 457 00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:02,720 Speaker 1: hypothesize a couple of reasons. 458 00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:03,040 Speaker 2: Right. 459 00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:06,640 Speaker 1: One, I actually don't think this is about Australia. Now, 460 00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:09,520 Speaker 1: I know Australia we think everything is about us. I 461 00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:11,440 Speaker 1: don't think this is about Australia. I think this is 462 00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:16,320 Speaker 1: about Iran sponsoring of target attacks on Jewish communities around 463 00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:19,480 Speaker 1: the world, which is a trend that has been going 464 00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:22,840 Speaker 1: on for a long time, and I think this comes 465 00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:28,360 Speaker 1: back to ideological issues that Iran has. I think that 466 00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:32,760 Speaker 1: clearly they've seen an opportunity in Australia to do this, 467 00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:35,360 Speaker 1: and that probably makes us need to ask some questions 468 00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:39,480 Speaker 1: about our own social cohesion. I think there may well 469 00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:42,000 Speaker 1: be a third element to as much as this is 470 00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:45,520 Speaker 1: clearly meant to be covert not overt, a lot of 471 00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:48,800 Speaker 1: covert actions still get the attention of security organizations, so 472 00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:51,280 Speaker 1: they're about sending a message to a security organization, not 473 00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:54,560 Speaker 1: necessarily the public. I think Iran will also be very 474 00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:56,800 Speaker 1: keen right now to send the message that the Ratan 475 00:29:56,960 --> 00:30:02,160 Speaker 1: Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is a military arm of the 476 00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:06,960 Speaker 1: state that specializes in asymmetric warfare and terrorism quite frankly, 477 00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:09,920 Speaker 1: and then thankful that Australia has labeled them now as 478 00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:12,840 Speaker 1: a terrorist organization, or at least the legislation will come 479 00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:16,040 Speaker 1: about proving that they still have a capability. They have 480 00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:18,720 Speaker 1: taken some hard hits over the last couple of years 481 00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:23,640 Speaker 1: from January twenty twenty, where their head solemony was assassinated 482 00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:29,720 Speaker 1: in Iraq by then US President Donald Trump's orders. We've 483 00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:32,280 Speaker 1: seen this year a number of key principles in the 484 00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:37,160 Speaker 1: Iranian Revolution Guard are killed by Israeli forces. They took 485 00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:39,800 Speaker 1: a lot of hard hits during that twelve day war, 486 00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:42,640 Speaker 1: plus the Goods Force. So when you think about the 487 00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:45,200 Speaker 1: Iranian Revolution Guard, you kind of got an air force, 488 00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:49,080 Speaker 1: an avy, an army, an internal paramilitary force, and then 489 00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:52,480 Speaker 1: you've got this external force called the Kods Force. The 490 00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:56,840 Speaker 1: Kurds Force has sponsored Hamas, It's sponsored Hesbela, sponsored the 491 00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:59,800 Speaker 1: Houthis proxies around the world. It also has a specific 492 00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:04,040 Speaker 1: unit that does terrorist attacks and assassinations. And I wonder 493 00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:06,880 Speaker 1: if the IRGC also wants to demonstrate that it still 494 00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:09,760 Speaker 1: has capability after this. And I think it's part of 495 00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:14,880 Speaker 1: that global issue that Iran sees itself in right now. 496 00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:19,080 Speaker 1: It's under a lot of pressure. It does see Israel 497 00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:22,600 Speaker 1: as its mortal enemy. That Israel Iran conflict did not 498 00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:25,240 Speaker 1: finish in twelve days. This is ongoing. I honestly think 499 00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:28,440 Speaker 1: we'll see Israeli strikes against Iran again this year. So 500 00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:31,120 Speaker 1: I think it's part of this wider conversation too, of 501 00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:33,240 Speaker 1: Iran still proving it has a capability. 502 00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:36,200 Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely. And the interesting thing, and you sort of 503 00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:39,640 Speaker 2: touched on this, but the interesting thing is that these attacks, 504 00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:43,880 Speaker 2: while they've obviously just been revealed now, they occurred late 505 00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:48,440 Speaker 2: last year when Iran's aggression was really ramping up. This 506 00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:53,440 Speaker 2: was before while they were fuzz funding and supporting materially 507 00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:58,200 Speaker 2: their proxies Hesbuler and her mass but also before they 508 00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:03,600 Speaker 2: did out an missile strikes on Israel from Tehran or 509 00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:09,240 Speaker 2: from Iranian bases. What has happened since then, of course, though, 510 00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:12,360 Speaker 2: is that Donald Trump has shown that America is prepared 511 00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:18,280 Speaker 2: to intervene swiftly, decisively, with devastating impact. If we're to 512 00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:22,720 Speaker 2: believe the intelligence reports we have so far, we'll see 513 00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:28,600 Speaker 2: this conflicting reports. But are we, you know, are we 514 00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:32,280 Speaker 2: seeing Iran now weakened as a result of that? Is this, 515 00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:35,840 Speaker 2: I suppose? Is this the kind of after Are we 516 00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:38,400 Speaker 2: seeing a sort of after image of Iran when it 517 00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:41,920 Speaker 2: was actually at its most aggressive on its uppers, thinking 518 00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:45,920 Speaker 2: it could act without US retaliation, And is it now 519 00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:49,280 Speaker 2: in a position to respond to a the expulsion of 520 00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:52,880 Speaker 2: the ambassador run is there going to be blowback for 521 00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:55,600 Speaker 2: Australia as a result of that, or are we looking 522 00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:58,880 Speaker 2: at a fundamentally more weakened and cowed Iran at the moment. 523 00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:03,520 Speaker 1: Look, I think we should never underestimate Iran's desires and 524 00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:07,800 Speaker 1: Iran's capabilities. It's true to say that Iran is weakened. Absolutely. 525 00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:11,360 Speaker 1: They relied because of their lack of conventional capability and 526 00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:14,600 Speaker 1: their idea of asymmetric warfare. They relied on their proxies 527 00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:17,320 Speaker 1: to do their job for them. Now a lone of 528 00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:21,040 Speaker 1: those proxies have been severely hindered, whether we are talking 529 00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:23,520 Speaker 1: about HESBLA, whether we're talking about Hamas, whether we're talking 530 00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:27,160 Speaker 1: about proxies in Syria or in Iraq that also been 531 00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:30,920 Speaker 1: strikes in Syrian Iraq from Israel and also also the Hoothy. 532 00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:33,960 Speaker 1: So they are weakened. But I don't think you should 533 00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:38,400 Speaker 1: underestimate Iran's capability. I also think that we need to 534 00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:42,400 Speaker 1: be very careful about assuming that the actions in June 535 00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:47,080 Speaker 1: by the US were decisive against Iran. You know, we've 536 00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:49,360 Speaker 1: seen the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency in the 537 00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:53,160 Speaker 1: US sacked in the last week. There was leaking of 538 00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:56,120 Speaker 1: reports from the US Defense Intelligence agency saying, hey, this 539 00:33:56,360 --> 00:34:00,320 Speaker 1: wasn't necessarily a decisive strike, and to be fair, it 540 00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:02,440 Speaker 1: was probably never going to be a decisive strike. 541 00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:04,720 Speaker 2: It was a following report that actually said it was 542 00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:07,560 Speaker 2: more impactful than that initial report had suggested. I wasn't there, 543 00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:09,479 Speaker 2: so there was sort of conflicting reports. But I'll shut 544 00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:10,319 Speaker 2: up and let you finish now. 545 00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:13,759 Speaker 1: No, No, you're right. There are conflicting reports, right, and who 546 00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:16,600 Speaker 1: knows the truth of any of it, except for the 547 00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:18,440 Speaker 1: fact that we know that these targets they tried to 548 00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:21,680 Speaker 1: strike are hard targets. What we probably do know, though, 549 00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:24,640 Speaker 1: is that the capability is unlikely to have been obliterated. 550 00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:28,080 Speaker 1: But how much it is degraded and how far it 551 00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:31,239 Speaker 1: is set back isn't clear, right, It's not clear in 552 00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:33,600 Speaker 1: the public domain. But there is a lot of murmuring 553 00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:37,160 Speaker 1: at the moment that Israel is preparing to go back 554 00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:40,319 Speaker 1: and strike Iran again, which if true, would give you 555 00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:43,800 Speaker 1: the view that Israel is not confident that Iran's nuclear 556 00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:46,840 Speaker 1: program has been eradicated, and there's a lot of experts 557 00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:50,520 Speaker 1: in Iran's nuclear program that have said that it probably hasn't, 558 00:34:50,560 --> 00:34:54,320 Speaker 1: although it's probably been set back. So yes, Iran is weakened, 559 00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:56,279 Speaker 1: that is true, but I don't think we should ever 560 00:34:56,520 --> 00:35:00,239 Speaker 1: underestimate Iran's capability. And again, as I mentioned before, or 561 00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:04,279 Speaker 1: these attacks that occurred in Australia late last year, they 562 00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:07,960 Speaker 1: are part of this trend of Iranian attacks across the world, 563 00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:10,840 Speaker 1: including in Europe and including in the Middle East, using 564 00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:12,239 Speaker 1: criminal organizations. 565 00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:16,560 Speaker 2: So you mentioned, you know, we just don't know certain things, 566 00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:19,520 Speaker 2: very rumsfeldesk. You know there are no knowns, no unknowns, 567 00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:24,360 Speaker 2: unknown knowns and unknown unknowns. Perhaps an unknown unknown is 568 00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:29,160 Speaker 2: why is Richard Marles going to America all of a sudden. 569 00:35:29,200 --> 00:35:31,680 Speaker 2: We know, here are the knowns. We know that he 570 00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:34,759 Speaker 2: had a full week of ministerial duties lined up that 571 00:35:34,840 --> 00:35:38,440 Speaker 2: he had to wipe on the weekend, and he suddenly 572 00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:42,440 Speaker 2: declared that he was going to the US. We know 573 00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:47,760 Speaker 2: that he had meetings with JD. Vans, the Vice President, 574 00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:50,719 Speaker 2: and Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, but had not 575 00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:53,000 Speaker 2: locked in a meeting, or at least had not locked 576 00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:56,520 Speaker 2: in a specific time and place with his counterpart, the 577 00:35:56,560 --> 00:36:02,080 Speaker 2: Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth. And we don't know what he's 578 00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:08,080 Speaker 2: actually there to do and why and what indeed he's 579 00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:10,839 Speaker 2: had met with Pete Hegseth. Now we still don't know 580 00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:13,399 Speaker 2: what they talked about. Maybe people will by the time 581 00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:19,000 Speaker 2: this comes out. But why do you think suddenly he 582 00:36:19,120 --> 00:36:22,200 Speaker 2: had to drop everything and fly over there with such 583 00:36:22,320 --> 00:36:25,719 Speaker 2: haste that all the meetings hadn't even been locked in yet. 584 00:36:26,160 --> 00:36:27,960 Speaker 1: Well, wherever I go on last minute worked trip to 585 00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:29,600 Speaker 1: the US, my wife tells me it's because I want 586 00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:32,439 Speaker 1: to go shopping. And I don't think that's why. 587 00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:35,160 Speaker 2: Miss He's a very stylish man. I mean, I don't 588 00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:38,560 Speaker 2: know if you've seen his brogues and his colored trousers, 589 00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:40,960 Speaker 2: but this is about his snappy dresser. But no, I 590 00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:41,520 Speaker 2: don't think so. 591 00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:44,360 Speaker 1: No, No, but may he should. I would recommend to 592 00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:45,719 Speaker 1: him he does ways over there. But look, I think 593 00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:49,880 Speaker 1: more seriously the exact reason, Look, it's very clear we 594 00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:52,920 Speaker 1: don't know is probably related to his role as a 595 00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:55,799 Speaker 1: deputy Prime Minister as opposed the Defense Minister. Because of 596 00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:58,280 Speaker 1: the order in which the meetings appeared to have come. 597 00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:00,680 Speaker 1: But look, I think there are there are a lot 598 00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:05,280 Speaker 1: of questions in the States about the relationship between US 599 00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:08,600 Speaker 1: in Australia, certainly a lot of questions in Australia, And 600 00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:10,759 Speaker 1: I think either way, it is a good thing for 601 00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:12,959 Speaker 1: him to be going over there. And to be honest, 602 00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:16,000 Speaker 1: there is lots to discuss, right There is the upcoming 603 00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:19,759 Speaker 1: meeting in the UN General Assembly in September. There is 604 00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:23,320 Speaker 1: a fact that President Trump and Anthony Albaneze he have 605 00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:25,640 Speaker 1: not met in person, although I think this is a 606 00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:28,440 Speaker 1: little bit of an overeage issue in Australia. There is 607 00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:31,440 Speaker 1: of course the incidents that we've just revealed, and of 608 00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:34,120 Speaker 1: course Asio would have spoken to their five eyes counterparts 609 00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:37,720 Speaker 1: about what Iran's been doing in Australia. There is always 610 00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:40,480 Speaker 1: in the background China's behavior in the region. There is 611 00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:43,759 Speaker 1: the God Forbid the US review into Aucust. So look, 612 00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:46,560 Speaker 1: there are a range of things that they could be discussing, 613 00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:50,799 Speaker 1: but it probably is more about actually maybe teeing up 614 00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:54,480 Speaker 1: that meeting between the Prime Minister and the President, or 615 00:37:54,560 --> 00:37:57,239 Speaker 1: maybe just he had the opportunity to go over in 616 00:37:57,280 --> 00:37:59,640 Speaker 1: the meet with meet with Vance, meet with Rubio, and 617 00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:04,359 Speaker 1: thought it an important demonstration of the relationship given some 618 00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:07,359 Speaker 1: of the pressures we're seeing internally in Australian questions about 619 00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:09,200 Speaker 1: the relationship that are constantly coming up. 620 00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:12,719 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's very insightful and again I think 621 00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:15,880 Speaker 2: the fact that because Males, as we say, is not 622 00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:18,279 Speaker 2: just the defenseman, he's also the deputy PM. He is 623 00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:20,280 Speaker 2: the hand of the king, if you like, the PM's 624 00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:23,200 Speaker 2: right hand man, and the fact that he was I mean, 625 00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:25,600 Speaker 2: it's not a snub. People are trying to sort of 626 00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:27,279 Speaker 2: portray it as a snub. Well, it's not a snub 627 00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:30,319 Speaker 2: if you've got the Vice president meeting you that you know, 628 00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:33,399 Speaker 2: the Vice president's senior to the Defense secretary, and again 629 00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:35,839 Speaker 2: you're meeting the Secretary of State as well, So that 630 00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:38,560 Speaker 2: does seem to point to maybe just trying to sort 631 00:38:38,560 --> 00:38:42,439 Speaker 2: of smooth the calm the waters over the whole Palestine thing. 632 00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:46,080 Speaker 2: Maybe just make sure that everyone knows what page they're on, 633 00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:48,200 Speaker 2: that we're going to all smile and be friends. Will 634 00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:50,440 Speaker 2: go and vote in different ways in the General Assembly, 635 00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:53,240 Speaker 2: the US will veto it anyway in the Security Council, 636 00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:55,759 Speaker 2: so it won't happen. But where all friends agree to 637 00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:58,800 Speaker 2: disagree and maybe you know, do you reckon the bosses 638 00:38:58,840 --> 00:39:01,200 Speaker 2: can get together. Because I can depletely agree that it 639 00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:03,960 Speaker 2: wasn't a snub at the G seven in Canada because 640 00:39:04,280 --> 00:39:06,760 Speaker 2: World War III was about to break out and Trump 641 00:39:06,960 --> 00:39:09,400 Speaker 2: was already being told not to go to the G seven. 642 00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:11,200 Speaker 2: He ended up going for a day and then saying, nah, 643 00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:12,920 Speaker 2: I've got to sort this out. So he did. That 644 00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:15,279 Speaker 2: was the right thing to do. And you're absolutely right 645 00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:17,839 Speaker 2: that people say, oh, but he's met with Congo, He's 646 00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:20,520 Speaker 2: met with you know, all these other smaller countries. These 647 00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:22,480 Speaker 2: are all small countries, as Trump will keep telling you, 648 00:39:22,520 --> 00:39:24,080 Speaker 2: that are at war with each other or about to 649 00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:26,080 Speaker 2: go to war with each other, that he's trying to diffuse. 650 00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:30,799 Speaker 2: So Australia, beautiful, boring, peace loving Australia, you know, is 651 00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:34,040 Speaker 2: not a high priority. But is it fair to say? 652 00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:37,760 Speaker 2: And then, of course the quad was delayed as well 653 00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:41,719 Speaker 2: because India's upset with the US over the ridiculous fifty 654 00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:45,920 Speaker 2: percent tariffs they've slapped on them. Is it the case, though, 655 00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:50,880 Speaker 2: that if there is yet another meeting, such as the 656 00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:55,440 Speaker 2: UN meeting in September, where both Donald Trump and Anthony 657 00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:57,920 Speaker 2: Albanezi are in the same place at the same time 658 00:39:58,000 --> 00:40:02,360 Speaker 2: and they still don't meet, think would that then be 659 00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:05,880 Speaker 2: enough to start to raise a few eyebrows even among 660 00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:09,520 Speaker 2: those who think that you know that the so called 661 00:40:09,560 --> 00:40:13,759 Speaker 2: freeze or you know, the snubbing has been overcooked previously. 662 00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:16,000 Speaker 2: That actually that would that would be a bit of 663 00:40:16,000 --> 00:40:17,080 Speaker 2: a bad look, wouldn't it. 664 00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:20,080 Speaker 1: Can you give me a bad look? I mean I 665 00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:23,240 Speaker 1: probably if if we're at the G twenty by no Vembers, 666 00:40:23,600 --> 00:40:25,200 Speaker 1: I haven't got a plan to make then. 667 00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:27,080 Speaker 2: Yes, now I'm out, Then I'm out. 668 00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:32,080 Speaker 1: I agree. But I think actually it kind of symbolizes 669 00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:34,200 Speaker 1: that as much as in Australia we think we are 670 00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:37,600 Speaker 1: the center of the world, we're not. And I just 671 00:40:37,640 --> 00:40:40,279 Speaker 1: think that we are not presently a priority for the 672 00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:43,759 Speaker 1: US administration, right, which could actually be a good thing. 673 00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:47,040 Speaker 1: It could be a positive thing. We know there is 674 00:40:47,080 --> 00:40:49,719 Speaker 1: tension in the relationship around defense spending and there is 675 00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:52,520 Speaker 1: going to continue to be. There are some tensions around 676 00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:55,759 Speaker 1: a couple of other things. So look, is it catastrophic 677 00:40:55,760 --> 00:40:58,439 Speaker 1: if they don't meet in September? Look, I would say no, 678 00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:01,319 Speaker 1: And bearing in mind what the Prime Minister is going 679 00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:04,360 Speaker 1: to do in September maybe. I mean, I'm not an 680 00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:07,120 Speaker 1: expert in the current US administration, if anyone actually is, 681 00:41:07,200 --> 00:41:08,960 Speaker 1: but that's a general coming. 682 00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:11,759 Speaker 2: We're all just learning as we go, I think, right. 683 00:41:11,600 --> 00:41:15,040 Speaker 1: Right exactly, But given what the Prime Minister said is 684 00:41:15,040 --> 00:41:17,160 Speaker 1: going to do, which is you know, a now Australian 685 00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:20,840 Speaker 1: recognition Palestine. It may be unpalable for the US administration 686 00:41:20,960 --> 00:41:23,239 Speaker 1: to meet with him on that trip, but certainly you 687 00:41:23,280 --> 00:41:27,000 Speaker 1: would expect it by November and the G twenty. But again, 688 00:41:27,040 --> 00:41:28,719 Speaker 1: I actually I think is a really good thing that 689 00:41:28,719 --> 00:41:31,240 Speaker 1: we're not a priority for the US right now, because 690 00:41:31,760 --> 00:41:33,680 Speaker 1: those that are seem to be getting a lot of 691 00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:35,440 Speaker 1: attention they don't necessarily want. 692 00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:39,080 Speaker 2: That's right. The country's in crisis that get the meetings 693 00:41:38,840 --> 00:41:44,640 Speaker 2: as per Ukraine. Is you mentioned is it possible? And again, 694 00:41:45,120 --> 00:41:47,480 Speaker 2: you know, we don't know what's happening inside the Pentagon, 695 00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:52,120 Speaker 2: but this review of ORCUS that was announced, it was 696 00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:54,000 Speaker 2: a fairly short review. I think it was only going 697 00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:55,719 Speaker 2: to be thirty days or the like, so it means 698 00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:58,239 Speaker 2: it must be coming to a close pretty soon. Most 699 00:41:58,280 --> 00:42:00,680 Speaker 2: people seem to think this is just something that yet 700 00:42:00,680 --> 00:42:04,839 Speaker 2: again is announced as part of you know, a sort 701 00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:07,640 Speaker 2: of bargaining ploy with the US, which we know says 702 00:42:07,640 --> 00:42:09,880 Speaker 2: that you know, are you better better increase your defense 703 00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:13,520 Speaker 2: spending because we're reviewing ucurs. Is it maybe just a 704 00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:18,120 Speaker 2: more sort of perfunctory kind of administrative kind of you know, 705 00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:21,080 Speaker 2: DoD in the eyes and checking the t's and crossing 706 00:42:21,080 --> 00:42:24,920 Speaker 2: the t's. Is it possible that something actually has you know, 707 00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:28,120 Speaker 2: this has taken a sharp left turn, and that is 708 00:42:28,120 --> 00:42:32,240 Speaker 2: what got Richard Miles jumping on a jet to Washington 709 00:42:32,920 --> 00:42:34,720 Speaker 2: over the last forty eight hours. 710 00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:38,879 Speaker 1: Look, is it possible? Maybe? Is it likely? I don't 711 00:42:38,880 --> 00:42:40,960 Speaker 1: think it's likely. Look again, we don't actually know a 712 00:42:40,960 --> 00:42:43,320 Speaker 1: lot about this US review. In fact, I was recently 713 00:42:43,320 --> 00:42:46,200 Speaker 1: on a panel with the Congressman Joe Courtney in Australia 714 00:42:46,200 --> 00:42:47,680 Speaker 1: and he's like, I don't know a lot about this 715 00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:50,040 Speaker 1: US review, right, So there seems to be some communication 716 00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:52,239 Speaker 1: issues I think in the US about the nature of 717 00:42:52,280 --> 00:42:55,080 Speaker 1: this review. In fact, the way we heard about it 718 00:42:55,120 --> 00:42:56,719 Speaker 1: was three leaks, right, and we all thought it was 719 00:42:56,760 --> 00:42:59,360 Speaker 1: thirty days. And in fact Elbridge Colby, who is the 720 00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:03,000 Speaker 1: undersecred within the Pentagon charged with conducting review, he said 721 00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:06,279 Speaker 1: it's not thirty days. He said it's probably, you know, 722 00:43:06,400 --> 00:43:09,680 Speaker 1: I think till November or something like that. Interestingly, he 723 00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:12,640 Speaker 1: said that the tweet after the thirty days had expired, So. 724 00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:15,520 Speaker 2: Who really knows. I've bought it a bit of very 725 00:43:15,520 --> 00:43:17,520 Speaker 2: long thirty days. I was just sort of thinking my head, 726 00:43:17,520 --> 00:43:19,440 Speaker 2: hang on a minute, anyway, so carry on. 727 00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:24,120 Speaker 1: Who really quite knows. But I think when you think 728 00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:26,840 Speaker 1: about aucast, look, there is a lot in this for 729 00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:29,640 Speaker 1: the US, and I think I've stressed this many many times. 730 00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:32,120 Speaker 1: So I don't think despite the fact that we may 731 00:43:32,160 --> 00:43:35,680 Speaker 1: sometimes perceive the current US administration is a little bit frivolous, 732 00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:38,319 Speaker 1: I don't think they would throw it away easily. What 733 00:43:38,480 --> 00:43:41,200 Speaker 1: is in it for the US? It is access, it 734 00:43:41,280 --> 00:43:43,879 Speaker 1: is maintenance, but more than that is actually a US 735 00:43:43,960 --> 00:43:47,080 Speaker 1: standing in the region. The region views Australia. I mean, 736 00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:50,040 Speaker 1: we used to have that kind of deputy sheriff title, 737 00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:52,240 Speaker 1: which we didn't like and glad it's kind of gone. 738 00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:55,520 Speaker 1: But the region views Australia as one of the US's 739 00:43:55,560 --> 00:43:58,800 Speaker 1: closest allies, and in a region where the US is 740 00:43:58,800 --> 00:44:01,480 Speaker 1: trying to compete with China, undermining a deal which would 741 00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:03,879 Speaker 1: undermine the security of Australia, right Like if the US 742 00:44:03,920 --> 00:44:06,319 Speaker 1: put out of it, would we muddle through it, Yes? 743 00:44:06,320 --> 00:44:10,200 Speaker 1: But would it impact our capabilities? Yes? Doing that would 744 00:44:10,239 --> 00:44:12,279 Speaker 1: undermine you are standing in the region. So I think 745 00:44:12,320 --> 00:44:16,359 Speaker 1: it is unlikely that they will fundamentally undermine aucus. Will 746 00:44:16,400 --> 00:44:19,719 Speaker 1: there be changes? Yes? Is this defense spending issue a 747 00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:23,279 Speaker 1: pressure point look, it is a major pressure point. And 748 00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:25,600 Speaker 1: to be fair though, I mean Australia should be increasing 749 00:44:25,640 --> 00:44:28,880 Speaker 1: defense spending, stepping away from the US telling us to 750 00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:32,439 Speaker 1: do that. This has been a conversation in Australia for years. Yes, 751 00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:34,920 Speaker 1: it is true. The current government has increased defense spending. 752 00:44:34,960 --> 00:44:36,680 Speaker 1: Will get to we're about I think it's two point 753 00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:39,239 Speaker 1: zero four percent of GDP this financial year will get 754 00:44:39,280 --> 00:44:41,040 Speaker 1: to two point four or two point three to three 755 00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:44,120 Speaker 1: or whatever. The recent one is between two point three 756 00:44:44,120 --> 00:44:47,080 Speaker 1: and two point four by twenty thirty two thirty three. 757 00:44:47,520 --> 00:44:49,759 Speaker 1: But the question is do we have the capabilities we 758 00:44:49,880 --> 00:44:51,520 Speaker 1: need to respond to you know what I spoke about 759 00:44:51,520 --> 00:44:54,160 Speaker 1: the top of this podcast, this changing world. The answer 760 00:44:54,160 --> 00:44:55,560 Speaker 1: to that is not when I could spend the next 761 00:44:55,560 --> 00:44:59,080 Speaker 1: hour listing the capabilities we don't have, So really we 762 00:44:59,120 --> 00:45:02,600 Speaker 1: should do that. Will it help the relationship? Yes? Is 763 00:45:02,600 --> 00:45:05,000 Speaker 1: it going to undermine UCUS until we do it. I 764 00:45:05,000 --> 00:45:07,440 Speaker 1: don't know if I'll undermine August, but we will continue 765 00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:09,239 Speaker 1: to put pressure on and I don't think we will 766 00:45:09,280 --> 00:45:13,440 Speaker 1: see a positive statement from heg Seth or Trump about 767 00:45:13,440 --> 00:45:15,719 Speaker 1: August until we do it. In the same way that 768 00:45:15,800 --> 00:45:19,680 Speaker 1: Trump held off on talking about NATO, article five when 769 00:45:19,680 --> 00:45:22,919 Speaker 1: Mark Ratta really really wanted it, or confirming that NATO 770 00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:25,080 Speaker 1: Article five being in attack on one as attack on all. 771 00:45:25,280 --> 00:45:27,600 Speaker 1: He held off and doing that until NATO agreed to 772 00:45:27,600 --> 00:45:30,440 Speaker 1: increase defense spending. So I think Australia can expect that pressure. 773 00:45:30,920 --> 00:45:32,640 Speaker 2: I think, well, I think it's actually all hinging on 774 00:45:32,680 --> 00:45:35,960 Speaker 2: the meeting. I'm I am ninety nine percent sure, and 775 00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:38,600 Speaker 2: lord knows I've been wrong before. But they are waiting 776 00:45:38,680 --> 00:45:41,680 Speaker 2: for that bilateral meeting so that for the precise purpose 777 00:45:41,680 --> 00:45:44,600 Speaker 2: that Donald Trump and Anthony Albanezi can come out and 778 00:45:44,600 --> 00:45:47,399 Speaker 2: Trump says, yes we're all in on orcus albo says, 779 00:45:47,400 --> 00:45:50,920 Speaker 2: and yes we're going to increase defense spending, and both 780 00:45:50,960 --> 00:45:52,600 Speaker 2: sides can take that as a win. And that, of 781 00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:55,239 Speaker 2: course is what you want as an outcome of one 782 00:45:55,280 --> 00:45:57,960 Speaker 2: of those high level meetings. You want to have the 783 00:45:58,040 --> 00:46:02,440 Speaker 2: result already baked in before the meeting has even taken place. 784 00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:05,920 Speaker 2: So hopefully that is what happens and everybody wins. But 785 00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:08,200 Speaker 2: Jen Parker, thank you so much for joining us. We 786 00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:10,680 Speaker 2: like to start the podcast on the brink of World 787 00:46:10,719 --> 00:46:13,920 Speaker 2: War three and then and then have successfully averted it 788 00:46:13,960 --> 00:46:15,719 Speaker 2: by the end that you've managed to do that yet again. 789 00:46:15,840 --> 00:46:18,160 Speaker 2: So thanks so much for joining us on the Real Story. 790 00:46:18,280 --> 00:46:21,480 Speaker 2: Thanks much, and that is all we have time for 791 00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:24,080 Speaker 2: this week. We've saved the world yet again. Your welcome 792 00:46:24,080 --> 00:46:26,600 Speaker 2: planet Earth. If you would like to leave us a 793 00:46:26,640 --> 00:46:29,960 Speaker 2: message expressing your gratitude, you can email us at The 794 00:46:30,000 --> 00:46:33,640 Speaker 2: Real Story at novapodcast dot com dot au. You can 795 00:46:33,680 --> 00:46:37,840 Speaker 2: slide into my dms on the IG at Joe Underscore 796 00:46:38,000 --> 00:46:41,600 Speaker 2: Hildebrand on Instagram. You can of course leave us a 797 00:46:41,640 --> 00:46:43,960 Speaker 2: review or a rating wherever you get your podcasts. You 798 00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:47,200 Speaker 2: can read my columns every Monday and Saturday in the 799 00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:50,759 Speaker 2: various news court Masterheads, and more importantly, you can tune 800 00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:52,960 Speaker 2: in again next week we will do it all again. 801 00:46:53,280 --> 00:46:54,120 Speaker 2: Thanks and see you then.