WEBVTT - Why Elon’s million satellites could spell disaster 0:00:01.200 --> 0:00:07.520 Ten nine eight, Elon, Musk and SpaceX have already launched 0:00:07.560 --> 0:00:09.960 thousands of satellites into space two. 0:00:10.560 --> 0:00:15.880 One ignition engine, full power liftof Go, SpaceX Ghost Starlink. 0:00:16.000 --> 0:00:20.360 Fucking now, I believe you, my Valentine. Now they want 0:00:20.360 --> 0:00:24.520 to launch more, way, more, up to one million satellites 0:00:24.760 --> 0:00:27.960 as part of a proposal to power massive data centers 0:00:28.000 --> 0:00:31.560 in space. They pitch it as a clean, green alternative 0:00:31.920 --> 0:00:35.400 to regular data centers. But as our Earth's orbit becomes 0:00:35.400 --> 0:00:39.519 increasingly crowded, what will Elon's Mega constellation due to our 0:00:39.600 --> 0:00:43.199 night sky? And could a crash between satellites set off 0:00:43.200 --> 0:00:50.720 a catastrophic chain reaction. I'm Daniel James, and you're listening 0:00:50.920 --> 0:00:55.520 to seven Am today Associate Professor of Astronomy Sam Lawler 0:00:55.760 --> 0:00:59.200 on the potential for disaster, the need for new space laws, 0:00:59.400 --> 0:01:02.200 and the time a huge piece of spice junk landed 0:01:02.240 --> 0:01:13.600 in a hometown. It's Monday, February twenty three, Sam, thanks 0:01:13.600 --> 0:01:15.760 for joining us. Can you start off by telling us 0:01:15.800 --> 0:01:18.600 about this mega constallations that Alon Musk, can the spice 0:01:18.680 --> 0:01:22.160 mites at spicix want to build an orbit? Yeah? 0:01:22.240 --> 0:01:27.920 Well, so there already are mega constellations in orbit. Starlink 0:01:28.240 --> 0:01:32.839 is the first and the biggest. There are almost ten 0:01:33.040 --> 0:01:37.760 thousand Starlink satellites in orbit today above our heads, and 0:01:37.840 --> 0:01:41.360 they've launched more than eleven thousand right, so more than 0:01:41.360 --> 0:01:44.600 a thousand have burned up already in the atmosphere. These 0:01:44.720 --> 0:01:49.840 satellites are built in large batches, they're launched in large batches. 0:01:50.440 --> 0:01:54.040 It's a very different way of operating satellites than we've 0:01:54.080 --> 0:01:57.200 seen previously. They don't have very long operating lifetimes before 0:01:57.200 --> 0:02:00.320 they burned them up in the atmosphere. But SpaceX has 0:02:00.440 --> 0:02:05.160 plans to launch a million satellites right, which is many 0:02:05.360 --> 0:02:09.040 orders of magnitude more satellites than are currently in orbit. 0:02:10.520 --> 0:02:13.160 So Maaski is also talking about putting data centers in 0:02:13.200 --> 0:02:14.920 space ording the Earth. 0:02:15.320 --> 0:02:17.840 I think the case it's a no brainer for building 0:02:18.720 --> 0:02:22.720 AI SOL powered AI data centers in space because as mentioned, 0:02:22.760 --> 0:02:24.240 it's also very cold in space. 0:02:24.680 --> 0:02:27.440 Spicce X is pitching this is a cost effective and 0:02:27.520 --> 0:02:31.200 grainer alternative to traditional data centers because you don't need 0:02:31.240 --> 0:02:33.200 the same amount of power and wanted to cool them 0:02:33.240 --> 0:02:33.920 out in space. 0:02:34.120 --> 0:02:38.280 It's a very efficient cooling system. So net effect is 0:02:38.280 --> 0:02:42.200 that the lowest cost place to put AI will be 0:02:42.280 --> 0:02:47.320 space and that'll be true within two years, maybe three. 0:02:47.440 --> 0:02:49.600 Three of the latest is that something that's viable, is 0:02:49.600 --> 0:02:51.480 that something that will actually work. 0:02:52.360 --> 0:02:57.040 That is something that is completely untested. Right, No one 0:02:57.120 --> 0:03:01.560 has shown that a data centered my operation can work 0:03:01.600 --> 0:03:04.480 in orbit. I'm not an engineer, but it's my understanding 0:03:04.560 --> 0:03:09.320 that it's actually really really hard to dissipate heat in orbit. 0:03:09.480 --> 0:03:13.400 In outer space, there's no air to conduct the heat 0:03:13.480 --> 0:03:17.520 away from your satellite, so it's actually really easy for 0:03:17.560 --> 0:03:19.840 a satellite to burn up and fry itself. 0:03:19.919 --> 0:03:20.079 Right. 0:03:20.919 --> 0:03:24.160 This actually did happen with one of the first Starlink 0:03:24.200 --> 0:03:27.240 satellites that they tried to make darker so it was 0:03:27.360 --> 0:03:31.320 better for astronomy. They painted it black and it overheated 0:03:31.320 --> 0:03:33.880 and fried. So this should be a problem that SpaceX 0:03:34.200 --> 0:03:38.880 is familiar with. But as for greener, well, it's greener 0:03:38.920 --> 0:03:43.560 if you ignore all of the emissions associated with launching 0:03:44.200 --> 0:03:48.600 that many satellites into orbit and then disposing of them 0:03:48.640 --> 0:03:51.440 at the end of their lives. Right now, everything in 0:03:51.520 --> 0:03:54.040 lower orbit, the end of life plan is to burn 0:03:54.080 --> 0:03:57.760 it up in Earth's atmosphere, and that doesn't go away, right, 0:03:57.840 --> 0:04:02.440 all the computer parts and it's panels and plastic and 0:04:02.600 --> 0:04:06.160 metal that all gets deposited in Earth's upper atmosphere. And 0:04:06.200 --> 0:04:10.360 these are these are large satellites right the data center satellites. 0:04:10.400 --> 0:04:12.960 I'm not exactly sure how big they'll be, but Starlink 0:04:13.040 --> 0:04:16.920 satellites that they're launching now are a thousand kilograms right there. 0:04:16.960 --> 0:04:20.120 They're big satellites. They're they're like a Ford Ranger with 0:04:20.200 --> 0:04:23.040 thirty meters solar panels. They're they're not small. So yeah, 0:04:23.279 --> 0:04:27.760 thinking about a million satellites burning those up in the atmosphere, 0:04:28.080 --> 0:04:31.240 it's catastrophic, right, And if they don't burn up completely, 0:04:31.440 --> 0:04:34.360 pieces hit the ground and and that's a huge problem too, 0:04:34.400 --> 0:04:38.719 which I've I've witnessed at my home in Saskatchewan, Canada. 0:04:38.920 --> 0:04:41.400 You've got to be dreaming of injecting food avenges in 0:04:41.440 --> 0:04:43.360 the spice now, Sam so I thanks for that, SOT, 0:04:43.760 --> 0:04:46.880 I'm sure tell us about what happened me youohimtown. 0:04:47.279 --> 0:04:52.000 Yeah, so, so near near where I live, a SpaceX 0:04:52.080 --> 0:04:55.719 Crew Dragon trunk, big pieces of it landed on farmland. 0:04:55.760 --> 0:04:59.960 So this also happened in Australia in twenty twenty two. 0:05:00.200 --> 0:05:05.120 The very first Crew Dragon trunk dropped very large pieces 0:05:05.200 --> 0:05:10.200 onto farmland. It was the same situation, right, farmers found 0:05:10.279 --> 0:05:15.320 these giant pieces, got in contact with an astronomer. 0:05:14.680 --> 0:05:17.039 And so we think this is a fin. This is 0:05:17.080 --> 0:05:18.680 a part of the fin of the trunk that has 0:05:18.720 --> 0:05:22.279 now speared itself into the ground, and it's about three 0:05:22.400 --> 0:05:26.160 meters tall. We think of ways about twenty to thirty kilograms. 0:05:26.160 --> 0:05:29.159 Obviously we haven't dug it out of the ground, and then. 0:05:29.320 --> 0:05:32.359 Had to figure out how do you deal with pieces 0:05:32.640 --> 0:05:37.719 of foreign countries spacecraft on your farm? Right, this is 0:05:37.960 --> 0:05:42.160 a weird situation. The rules are vague, and we're written 0:05:42.200 --> 0:05:45.080 decades ago, and it's a situation that's going to become 0:05:45.160 --> 0:05:48.719 more and more common as more and more stuff goes 0:05:48.760 --> 0:05:51.239 into orbit and then falls back down to Earth. 0:05:51.480 --> 0:05:54.200 One are the environmental impacts that they said lots launching 0:05:54.520 --> 0:05:56.800 in the spice in the data centers, and how much 0:05:57.480 --> 0:05:59.480 fuel does it tight to get one of those things 0:05:59.600 --> 0:06:00.000 up there? 0:06:00.160 --> 0:06:02.000 Oh, that's a really good question, and I don't have 0:06:02.040 --> 0:06:04.320 those numbers at the top of my head. I know 0:06:04.440 --> 0:06:07.320 that each rocket launch is you know, it's a lot 0:06:07.320 --> 0:06:18.240 of pollution, right, but it's more the aggregate effects of 0:06:18.640 --> 0:06:22.480 many many launches. Right now, we're at about a launch 0:06:22.560 --> 0:06:26.200 per day on average somewhere in the world. And even 0:06:26.360 --> 0:06:30.400 water vapor as an exhaust product from rockets when it's 0:06:30.440 --> 0:06:34.159 deposited in very dry layers of the upper atmosphere, that 0:06:34.200 --> 0:06:38.799 can have serious effects on chemistry and temperature. Adding things 0:06:38.839 --> 0:06:42.279 like black carbon, which is a common emission product that's 0:06:42.480 --> 0:06:46.839 really bad that changes temperatures dramatically. There's indications that it 0:06:46.880 --> 0:06:51.200 could cause ozone depletion because chemical reactions proceed differently, but 0:06:51.320 --> 0:06:54.720 it's really not very well studied. There's not a lot 0:06:54.720 --> 0:06:58.359 of funding to study this, even though it's happening more 0:06:58.520 --> 0:07:01.120 and more commonly. And then, yeah, the end of life 0:07:01.480 --> 0:07:04.880 pollution I also mentioned, right, so all of that needs 0:07:04.960 --> 0:07:07.720 to be taken into account. And then there's also a 0:07:07.760 --> 0:07:11.360 pollution in orbit too, right, Like, there's there's great risks 0:07:11.440 --> 0:07:15.040 for collisions with active satellites. If you want to count 0:07:15.040 --> 0:07:16.800 that as pollution, I think I think it should count 0:07:16.800 --> 0:07:19.120 as pollution. So yeah, so there's. 0:07:18.960 --> 0:07:20.640 Going to be a lot of these things in orbit. 0:07:21.360 --> 0:07:24.440 It seems that to power these data sent as this 0:07:24.560 --> 0:07:27.480 spaking go off, unite up to a million satellites. It 0:07:27.520 --> 0:07:31.680 seems like quite a bit, well, yeah, quite a bit. 0:07:32.040 --> 0:07:35.080 What would be the impact of that, especially considering half credit. 0:07:35.120 --> 0:07:37.400 It's already getting up there, like you said. 0:07:37.440 --> 0:07:41.680 Yeah, so okay, So I originally started worrying about satellites 0:07:41.680 --> 0:07:44.679 in orbit because I could see them in my sky, 0:07:44.880 --> 0:07:48.160 right And I'm sure many of your listeners, probably all 0:07:48.200 --> 0:07:50.560 of your listeners have seen satellites in the sky now, right, Like, 0:07:50.600 --> 0:07:53.440 it's not an uncommon thing. Anytime you go outside, within 0:07:53.480 --> 0:07:56.360 a couple hours of sunriser sunset, you can see satellites. 0:07:56.400 --> 0:07:58.800 And this was causing more and more problems for my 0:07:58.880 --> 0:08:01.880 astronomy research, right, So yeah, I started looking at what 0:08:01.920 --> 0:08:05.920 would a million data centers in orbit look like, right, 0:08:05.960 --> 0:08:10.160 And it's thousands of naked eye visible satellites would be 0:08:10.240 --> 0:08:13.840 in your sky, crawling in grids across the sky, right. So, 0:08:14.080 --> 0:08:16.240 just thinking about how much that would change the night 0:08:16.320 --> 0:08:19.960 sky worldwide is pretty horrifying. But then, yeah, all the 0:08:20.160 --> 0:08:24.120 environmental effects the collision risks in orbit are also huge. 0:08:24.360 --> 0:08:28.520 My collaborators and I have looked at how unsafe orbit 0:08:28.720 --> 0:08:32.760 is currently right now. Starlink, for example, they do a 0:08:32.800 --> 0:08:37.520 collision avoidance maneuver once every two minutes in order to 0:08:37.559 --> 0:08:41.720 not crash into themselves and into other pieces of debris. 0:08:41.880 --> 0:08:44.480 And other satellites that are up there, right, So what 0:08:44.520 --> 0:08:47.000 would that look like with a million satellites? How often 0:08:47.040 --> 0:08:50.720 would they have to maneuver to avoid collisions? With a 0:08:50.760 --> 0:08:53.320 million satellites, that's quite frequent. 0:08:53.520 --> 0:08:56.120 Because you spak, you speak about something called the Kessels 0:08:56.200 --> 0:08:58.280 seed drive. Is that what you're thinking about? 0:08:58.280 --> 0:08:59.559 He yeah, yeah, exactly. 0:08:59.600 --> 0:09:04.560 So if we lost the ability to do collision avoidance maneuvers, 0:09:04.880 --> 0:09:08.319 my collaborators and I calculate that it'll be about three 0:09:08.360 --> 0:09:10.959 and a half days before we have a collision, right, 0:09:11.000 --> 0:09:13.319 So that's how much time we have. If everything goes 0:09:13.360 --> 0:09:15.719 wrong and they stop being able to do these maneuvers, 0:09:16.280 --> 0:09:18.800 that's not very much time to recover. So if there's 0:09:18.840 --> 0:09:22.640 a collision, you get a bunch of debris that will 0:09:22.679 --> 0:09:26.000 cause more collisions and make more debris. Right, So this 0:09:26.200 --> 0:09:30.200 runaway effect can destroy a lot of satellites very quickly. 0:09:30.400 --> 0:09:33.720 And some experts say that we're already in Kessler syndrome. 0:09:33.800 --> 0:09:37.640 Is just the timescale between collisions is very long right now, 0:09:37.840 --> 0:09:39.800 and we don't want it to get shorter. Right, the 0:09:39.880 --> 0:09:42.440 first time we have a collision, there will be more debris, 0:09:42.520 --> 0:09:45.199 and the timescale gets shorter and shorter and shorter. 0:09:46.440 --> 0:09:49.360 Coming up. Why Spice is the wild wist when it 0:09:49.400 --> 0:09:56.160 comes to rules and regulation, sam one are the rules 0:09:56.200 --> 0:09:59.720 when it comes to launching these mega satellites. Can anyone 0:10:00.080 --> 0:10:00.960 launch a set a lot? 0:10:01.320 --> 0:10:04.480 Yeah, so you just have to get permission from the 0:10:04.480 --> 0:10:08.520 government of the country where you're launching from. So for SpaceX, 0:10:08.520 --> 0:10:12.080 they have to get permission from the US government, and 0:10:12.320 --> 0:10:14.800 the federal agency that's in charge of this is actually 0:10:14.840 --> 0:10:17.800 set up to regulate radio broadcasts, right, They're not really 0:10:17.840 --> 0:10:20.560 set up to look at orbital safety and all of 0:10:20.600 --> 0:10:23.600 the problems associated with satellites. So they just have to 0:10:23.600 --> 0:10:27.840 get permission from the US FCC. And there's actually a 0:10:27.840 --> 0:10:31.160 comment period open now to the general public. It's it's 0:10:31.280 --> 0:10:35.320 very complicated to submit a comment, but anyone can do it. 0:10:35.360 --> 0:10:37.600 And this is the only time that people in the 0:10:37.640 --> 0:10:41.679 general public anywhere in the world can object to SpaceX 0:10:41.760 --> 0:10:44.400 launching a million satellites into orbit. There are a couple 0:10:44.360 --> 0:10:48.480 of dark Sky International has really great instructions for how 0:10:48.520 --> 0:10:51.920 to submit a comment, but this is the only chance 0:10:51.960 --> 0:10:53.840 to actually formally protest it. 0:10:54.320 --> 0:10:56.520 Have five D on the track. We in a regulatory 0:10:56.640 --> 0:11:00.520 sense and in a permission sense from Moscow actually being 0:11:00.520 --> 0:11:03.400 able to launch these satellites, these million satelltes. 0:11:04.040 --> 0:11:07.360 So the comment period is open. Once the comment period closes, 0:11:07.440 --> 0:11:10.920 presumably the FCC reviews these comments and then they can 0:11:11.080 --> 0:11:13.559 grant permission for them to start launching. 0:11:13.800 --> 0:11:13.920 Right. 0:11:14.000 --> 0:11:16.520 That's that's all it takes. So it could be weeks, 0:11:17.720 --> 0:11:22.040 maybe even less before the comment period closes on March. 0:11:22.160 --> 0:11:24.400 It's either March sixth or March ninth, I don't remember 0:11:24.440 --> 0:11:28.480 which date, but it's very soon. And the FCC in 0:11:28.559 --> 0:11:31.400 the US has been going faster and faster with these 0:11:31.440 --> 0:11:35.040 approvals lately, so it could be very very quick. They 0:11:35.120 --> 0:11:40.440 don't have like nobody's ever built a data center satellite before, 0:11:40.640 --> 0:11:43.240 so like I don't I don't know how quickly they 0:11:43.280 --> 0:11:46.520 would actually start launching, but it makes me really really 0:11:46.520 --> 0:11:49.680 sad how quickly this can all happen with very little 0:11:49.720 --> 0:11:54.360 input from anybody and no environmental oversight at all none. 0:11:54.679 --> 0:11:56.960 So what conum regulation would you love to say? And 0:11:57.000 --> 0:11:57.800 how would that work? 0:11:58.280 --> 0:12:01.360 I'd like to see us look at the total effects 0:12:01.360 --> 0:12:03.559 of this, right, because like there are good effects, right, 0:12:03.679 --> 0:12:07.360 like starlink. Internet is incredibly useful, lots of people use it. 0:12:07.400 --> 0:12:09.920 I live in a rural place. I know lots of 0:12:09.920 --> 0:12:13.240 people who use starlink because rural internet is terrible. Right, 0:12:13.280 --> 0:12:16.280 I'm sure a lot of people in Australia also use it, right, 0:12:16.720 --> 0:12:19.839 So yeah, I would like to see a balancing of 0:12:20.720 --> 0:12:23.320 the good and the bad, right, Like, yes, it's really 0:12:23.400 --> 0:12:25.800 nice to have this good, fast internet, but what are 0:12:25.840 --> 0:12:29.640 the costs? How could we make this less costly in 0:12:29.720 --> 0:12:33.720 terms of environmental effects and astronomy effects and collision risks 0:12:33.720 --> 0:12:37.320 and casualty risks on the ground, right, And one way 0:12:37.400 --> 0:12:41.000 we could do that very easily is if SpaceX and 0:12:41.080 --> 0:12:44.320 other companies focused on how to deliver their services with 0:12:44.520 --> 0:12:48.040 fewer satellites. That would help with all of the problems 0:12:48.040 --> 0:12:51.320 that I've talked about. And that's an engineering challenge, right, Like, 0:12:51.400 --> 0:12:54.480 that is an engineering challenge I'm presenting right now to SpaceX, Right, 0:12:54.800 --> 0:12:58.840 how do you deliver your services with fewer satellites? Because yeah, 0:12:58.880 --> 0:13:01.640 that is the big challenge to everything. 0:13:01.720 --> 0:13:04.760 Right now, what's the worst Cauist scenario if we don't 0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:07.360 create some rules around what happens to spice? What do 0:13:07.440 --> 0:13:09.040 you worry about the most, Sam. 0:13:09.000 --> 0:13:11.960 I worry a lot about the atmospheric pollution. I really 0:13:12.040 --> 0:13:14.959 don't think we can have a million satellites in orbit 0:13:15.040 --> 0:13:19.560 without serious crashes, right, I think that we would be 0:13:19.760 --> 0:13:22.680 in Kessler syndrome long before we could get to a 0:13:22.679 --> 0:13:26.600 million satellites. So I don't think we can actually do this, right, 0:13:26.679 --> 0:13:32.240 I don't think that our safety rules around collision avoidance maneuvers, 0:13:32.240 --> 0:13:34.000 and we don't know where all the debris is, right, 0:13:34.000 --> 0:13:36.559 we can't see all of it. So I really don't 0:13:36.600 --> 0:13:39.120 think that we can actually get to a million. But 0:13:39.360 --> 0:13:42.760 I don't want us to go into Kessler syndrome just 0:13:42.960 --> 0:13:44.960 trying to do that for no good reason. 0:13:48.400 --> 0:13:50.960 If Kessler seen drive did happen in Sam, would effect 0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:52.600 Papal's ability to listen to seven I. 0:13:52.559 --> 0:13:57.679 Am, Yeah, possibly people who rely on satellite internet. Yeah, yeah, 0:13:57.800 --> 0:14:01.719 you would not be able to use that anymore. One 0:14:01.760 --> 0:14:04.280 of the densest part of orbit is Starlank's orbit, so 0:14:04.320 --> 0:14:08.000 that is where it's most likely to have a major collision. 0:14:08.600 --> 0:14:11.400 Well, this is worse than I even thought. Sam. Sorry, 0:14:11.600 --> 0:14:13.640 thank you, thank you so much for coming on and 0:14:13.880 --> 0:14:14.560 speaking with us. 0:14:14.840 --> 0:14:17.120 Yeah, thanks thanks for having me. And like, do you 0:14:17.240 --> 0:14:19.360 do get out and enjoy your night skies? 0:14:19.440 --> 0:14:19.560 Right? 0:14:19.680 --> 0:14:21.480 Like there is a time of night when you can 0:14:21.480 --> 0:14:24.920 see no sunlit satellites and the skies are still beautiful 0:14:25.000 --> 0:14:25.600 up there. 0:14:26.080 --> 0:14:42.360 Thank you so much. Also in the news, Australian businesses 0:14:42.360 --> 0:14:44.640 could be owed more than one point four billion dollars 0:14:44.640 --> 0:14:47.720 in refunds after Donald Trump's terriffs was struck down by 0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:50.760 the US Supreme Court. But the US President isn't taking 0:14:50.760 --> 0:14:54.080 the ruling lying down. He slept a temporary terror for 0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:57.680 fifteen percent on US imports from all countries. There's a 0:14:57.720 --> 0:15:00.720 five percent increase from the current right Australian paying of 0:15:00.760 --> 0:15:06.080 ten percent. And Australia has capped off our most successful 0:15:06.080 --> 0:15:10.400 Winter Olympics campaign to date with six medals. Mogles champion 0:15:10.480 --> 0:15:13.680 Cooper Woods and aerial skiing silver medal winner Daniel Scott 0:15:13.960 --> 0:15:16.480 were chosen as flag bearers to lead the Aussies at 0:15:16.520 --> 0:15:20.440 the closing ceremony in Verona this morning. You've been listening 0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:23.080 to seven am. We'll be back tomorrow.