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Speaker 1: The Federal government announces its nineteenth free trade deal, this

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Speaker 1: time with the United Arab Emirates as it eyes off

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Speaker 1: billions of dollars in potential investments. Money manager Regal Partners

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Speaker 1: shakes up the funds management industry by bidding for rival

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Speaker 1: platinum asset. And the work from home revolution is waning,

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Speaker 1: with Amazon ordering everyone back to the office. Welcome to

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed. Daily business news for people who make

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Speaker 1: their own decisions. It is Wednesday, the eighteenth of September

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning, Sewan. The Federal government has

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Speaker 1: done a trade deal with the United Arab Emirates or

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Speaker 1: the UAE, which in the short term will save local

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Speaker 1: export as one hundred and sixty million dollars in tariffs,

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Speaker 1: but in the longer term could help access billions of

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Speaker 1: dollars in investments.

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Speaker 2: Trade Minster Don Farrell yesterday said trade between the two countries,

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Speaker 2: currently worth just under ten billion dollars, will increase significantly

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Speaker 2: under the deal, with ninety nine percent of Aussie products

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Speaker 2: able to enter the UAE without paying tariffs. Australia's main

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Speaker 2: exports to the UE include aluminum, meat, dairy, oil, seeds, seafood, steel,

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Speaker 2: canola seeds, nuts, honey, cold chickpeas, lentils, and higher education.

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Speaker 2: It's our biggest trading partner in the Middle East. Mister

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Speaker 2: Farrell said. Imported goods from the UAE include furniture, copper, wire,

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Speaker 2: glass containers and plastic and these goods should become cheaper

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Speaker 2: at the checkout or for tradees, he said. The prize

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Speaker 2: and all this might be much more than what's going

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Speaker 2: and being bought and sold between the two countries. At

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Speaker 2: the moment, the UAE has established a thirty billion US

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Speaker 2: dollar forty billion AUSIE dollar climate focused investment vehicle Trade.

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Speaker 2: Minister Don Farrell is hopeful of marrying that investment with

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Speaker 2: preferential treatment for Australian supplies of critical minerals and rare earths.

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Speaker 2: Is successful, that is quite the boom for some of

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Speaker 2: our resource companies.

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Speaker 1: All right, the UAE, we seem to have signed a

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Speaker 1: whole lot of these, a bunch, I think it's the

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Speaker 1: technical term, a bunch of free trade deals in recent years.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, look we have yesterday, makes it nineteen free trade

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Speaker 2: or cooperation agreements in place those sometimes free might be

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Speaker 2: a little optimistic. The FDAs include deals with Chile, India,

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Speaker 2: New Zealand, uk US, Hong Kong, China. We did do

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Speaker 2: one with Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Peru.

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Speaker 2: There's also deals with countries in the region that come

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Speaker 2: under a larger umbrella agreement, such as the Comprehensive and

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Speaker 2: Progressive Agreement for trans Specific Partnership along acronym that one,

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Speaker 2: but it involves lots of smaller countries in the region.

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Speaker 2: For years, governments around the world tried these massive multilateral

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Speaker 2: trade deals getting a bunch of countries to agree. That's very,

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Speaker 2: very difficult to do. They've gone out of favor for

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Speaker 2: these two way deals. The goal is to reduce or

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Speaker 2: remove barriers to trade and investment does provide a competitive

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Speaker 2: edge for Australian businesses and investors. This new one with

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Speaker 2: UAE adds to that and certainly the big prize there though,

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Speaker 2: is potential investment from that country.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's take a look at local markets. Now,

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Speaker 1: how did things go yesterday?

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Speaker 2: Sean good effort, nice question. The local share market pushed

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Speaker 2: above one hundred and fifty points for the first time yesterday,

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Speaker 2: Michael before it finished up at one hundred and forty

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Speaker 2: one points. That was up just zero point two percent

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Speaker 2: for the day. It officially set a new high of

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Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty point five points on the back

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Speaker 2: of growing confidence that the US Federal Reserve will cut

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Speaker 2: rates in the world's largest economy by fifty basis points tomorrow.

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Speaker 2: Australian time roll it was a fairly subdued session, not

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Speaker 2: a lot of movement or eleven sub indicties were higher,

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Speaker 2: led by the Tech index. The banks and minors also

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Speaker 2: did okay well. The retailers were mostly lower.

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Speaker 1: I realized in hindsight that I may have asked that question.

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Speaker 1: I was a little bit subdued, Really, wasn't I, considering

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Speaker 1: it's quite a momentous occasion, I know, passing the one

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Speaker 1: and fifty point mark, there should have been more fanfare

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Speaker 1: in that question.

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Speaker 2: I apologize, wish no, no, no, Well, the actual story

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Speaker 2: because the market itself was really quite yesterday and so

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Speaker 2: none of the banks did much, none of the region

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Speaker 2: of the top twenty or thirty stocks. I'm doing this

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Speaker 2: from memory, so I don't have the information in front

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Speaker 2: of me, but I don't think anything moved more than

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Speaker 2: one percent. Now, ford Escue might have, forod Escube might

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Speaker 2: have been up a bit, but like at the top

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Speaker 2: twenty or thirty stocks, hardly any of them had any

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Speaker 2: particular move. But having said that, we hit a new

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Speaker 2: all time record, so it was still like, I don't

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Speaker 2: know what you'd call it, a subdued celebration or something

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Speaker 2: like that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, okay, So I don't feel too bad then

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Speaker 1: about not asking it with enough enthusiasm about local markets. Okay,

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Speaker 1: all right, international markets much happening there, Sean. That was better,

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Speaker 1: wasn't it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, No, it's good. The sentiment around iron ore prices

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Speaker 2: is very negative at the moment, with the Commonwealth Bank

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Speaker 2: warning prices may fall towards eighty US dollars a ton.

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Speaker 2: The problem is that there are piles and piles of

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Speaker 2: iron ore in China. Steel mills just haven't really picked

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Speaker 2: it up to use it yet. The world's second largest economy,

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Speaker 2: particularly its property sector, is in a lull. It's not

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Speaker 2: a slum. The economy is still expanding, but it's just

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Speaker 2: not going anywhere near as fast as it has over

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Speaker 2: the recent decades. Doesn't need the iron ore, which of

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Speaker 2: course is used to make steel. That's a problem. It

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Speaker 2: continues to weigh on Australia's big miners, and it certainly

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Speaker 2: won't help the federal government's bottom line because lower prices

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Speaker 2: reduces tax royalties from iron ore. In oil markets, prices

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Speaker 2: are rising, though they remain relatively low, with Brent crude

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Speaker 2: around seventy three US dollars a barrel. That's in the

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Speaker 2: back of reduction in Libyan exports and expectations that the

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Speaker 2: Federal Reserve might have to cut rates by fifty basis

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Speaker 2: points to stimulate the US economy. On Wall Street, Microsoft

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Speaker 2: unveiled a sixty billion US dollar it's about ninety billion

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Speaker 2: Ozzie stock buyback program, matching its largest ever repurchase authorization.

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Speaker 2: It also rates its quarterly dividend ten percent. That's what

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Speaker 2: you do when you have plenty of cash, I suppose.

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Speaker 2: And finally, the Aussie dollar is buying sixty seven and

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Speaker 2: a half y wes cents sean a.

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Speaker 1: Bit of a PSA. I've forgot what PSA stands for.

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Speaker 1: Spur at the moment Public Service announcement there we go

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Speaker 1: about the Fear and Greed newsletter which comes out in

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Speaker 1: just a few hours.

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Speaker 2: Ah, yes, full of really exciting insights. Now, don't ask

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Speaker 2: me too much about what those insights are because they're

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Speaker 2: still formulating in my mind, Michael.

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Speaker 1: At the moment, they are just there. They are concepts.

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Speaker 2: Concept this concept. That's definitely the way to put it.

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Speaker 1: To quote Donald Trump from last week. But if you

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Speaker 1: have not yet signed up for the Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: Free weekly newsletter, you still have a little bit of

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Speaker 1: time to do it. Head along to Fearangreed dot com

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Speaker 1: dot au, pop your email address in and you will

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Speaker 1: receive it. It's choc a block full of those solid

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Speaker 1: gold insights and nuggets from from Sean Aylmer. You do

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Speaker 1: not want to miss it. We'll be back in a

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Speaker 1: moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sewan

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Speaker 1: fund manager Regal Partners has made a bid for global

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Speaker 1: equities group Platinum Asset Management, sending the latter's share price

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Speaker 1: up nearly fifteen percent.

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Speaker 2: It's kind of a merger of royalty in the funds

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Speaker 2: management world. Platinum was founded by one of Australia's best

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Speaker 2: known investors, Kern Neilson, while Regal is run by one

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Speaker 2: of the country's most successful recent investors Phil King. If successful,

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Speaker 2: Regal will control a twenty nine billion dollar funds of

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Speaker 2: management empire, pretty much puts it in the big league.

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Speaker 2: Regal's bid is a script based offer, meaning Platinum shareholders

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Speaker 2: would get shares in Regal if the deal goes ahead.

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Speaker 2: The inferred bid price is a dollar fourteen a share,

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Speaker 2: compared to Platinum's closing price on Monday of ninety nine

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Speaker 2: cents a share. It's a premium, but not exactly an

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Speaker 2: overly generous one. The two companies are in the same industry,

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Speaker 2: but on very different trajectories. Regal is growing, buying businesses.

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Speaker 2: Its share price is up forty five percent this year.

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Speaker 2: Platinum is shrinking. Its share price is down eighty five

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Speaker 2: percent since its peak of nine years ago. Its performance

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Speaker 2: hasn't been that good, and it's had a lot of

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Speaker 2: outflows of funds under management. And we'll see where this

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Speaker 2: one ends.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, now the rate of business failures SEAN is at

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Speaker 1: its highest level in three and a half years, when

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Speaker 1: Australia was in the midst of the COVID pandemic.

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Speaker 2: The failure rate for Australian businesses is sitting at an

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Speaker 2: average of four point ninety five percent in credit reporting bureau.

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Speaker 2: Credit to Watch expects it to increase to five point

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Speaker 2: two percent over the next twelve months. Low levels of

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Speaker 2: consumer spending, high inflation, and interest rate increases are driving

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Speaker 2: the failures, with the food and beverage industry hardest hit,

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Speaker 2: followed by administrative and support services. At the other end

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Speaker 2: of the spectrum, agricultural, forestry and fishing companies are doing best.

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Speaker 2: Not helping is the Tax Office actively chasing debts. Coord

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Speaker 2: actions are now well above pre COVID levels, as large

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Speaker 2: creditors such as the banks and the ATO resume collections activity.

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Speaker 2: Not auguring well for the future is the jump in

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Speaker 2: business payment to faults, which according to credit Watch, have

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Speaker 2: risen sixty eight percent in the past year to record levels. Essentially,

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Speaker 2: an increasing number of businesses are unable to pay their

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Speaker 2: invoices from supplies. That is a leading indicator that more

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Speaker 2: businesses will fail.

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Speaker 1: And not a lot of good news in there, but

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Speaker 1: it is important news. And you've got an interview with

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Speaker 1: Patrick coglan, CEO of creditor Watch, coming up after the show.

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Speaker 2: It's all about why companies are getting themselves into trouble

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Speaker 2: and creditor Watch is a credit agency. It knows all

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Speaker 2: about what's happening between buyers and suppliers and where the

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Speaker 2: people are paying their bills, So itself is a great

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Speaker 2: leading indicator of what's happening in the economy. And as

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Speaker 2: you say, Michael, the news isn't great.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, now, labor governments and business Sean haven't always been

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Speaker 1: haven't been the best of friends. Have They have had

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Speaker 1: the friendliest of relations. And while there's plenty of noise

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Speaker 1: around business being upset with the Albanese government at the moment,

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Speaker 1: the Prime Minister himself said that everyone's on the same page.

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Speaker 2: Maybe maybe. Speaking ahead of last night's annual Business Council

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Speaker 2: Australia dinner, mister Albanese said the government isn't going to

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Speaker 2: revisit ir reforms, reforms that have irritated the business community.

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Speaker 2: He said the government had created one million jobs since

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Speaker 2: coming to power, including higher wages. In his speech last night,

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Speaker 2: Mister Albanese said the five areas which the Business Councils

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Speaker 2: cite as needing attention, housing, cost of living, the care economy,

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Speaker 2: net zero and skills are all being addressed by the government.

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Speaker 2: He said because the business community's priorities and the government's

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Speaker 2: priorities are the same, They're in sync. I'm not so

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Speaker 2: sure about that, Michael, No, I don't.

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Speaker 1: It's always been curious to me the way the government

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Speaker 1: takes responsibility for the creation of all jobs within the economy,

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Speaker 1: that as soon as there is and this happens across

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Speaker 1: a labor coalition, any kind of side, whenever any party

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Speaker 1: is in government, there is always full credit to the

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Speaker 1: government for creating these jobs, regardless of what the policies

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Speaker 1: were that seemed to actually lead to them.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and regardless of how much business actually worked to

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Speaker 2: create the jobs themselves.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Indeed. Now another interesting little kind of element out

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Speaker 1: of Canberra. The Prime Minister has left open the possibility

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Speaker 1: of a double dissolution election.

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Speaker 2: Yes, but only just the housing base helped to buy

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Speaker 2: legislation could be the trigger. If it's rejected by the

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Speaker 2: Senate this week, Labor would then need to wait three

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Speaker 2: months before putting the bill to a vote in the

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Speaker 2: Upper House again. If it's rejected. To do that, the

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Speaker 2: Prime Minister would have to recall Parliament in the week

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Speaker 2: before Christmas. If it's rejected, he would then need to

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Speaker 2: call a double dissolution election. If he wanted to by

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Speaker 2: Australia Day. No one really thinks it will happen, but

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Speaker 2: yesterday when asked about it, he just didn't totally counted out,

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Speaker 2: so obviously he doesn't mind having the idea floating around,

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Speaker 2: even if it's unlikely. Now.

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Speaker 1: Star Entertainments shares are suspended at the moment, having not

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Speaker 1: filed the full year results by the August thirty cutoff,

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Speaker 1: but there are media reports that its lenders are ready

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Speaker 1: to bail the gaming group out.

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Speaker 2: After weeks of discussions between the company and its banks,

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Speaker 2: the lenders have verbally committed to provide a two tranch

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Speaker 2: extension to the casino operators loans, including an immediate one

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Speaker 2: hundred million dollar injection to meet urgent cost blowouts at

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Speaker 2: its new Queen's Wolf resort in Risbone. According to report

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Speaker 2: in the fin Review, a second tranch worth about the

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Speaker 2: same would be available to start if required, and conditional

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Speaker 2: upon the company also raising capital and other forms. The

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Speaker 2: fresh funds are designed to give Stars directors and the

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Speaker 2: company ordered e why comfort that the casino operator can

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Speaker 2: meet its short term expenses, which will allow them to

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Speaker 2: sign the company's accounts. Star also needs to prove its

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Speaker 2: financial viability to the New South Wales Casino Regulator by

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Speaker 2: the end of next week.

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Speaker 1: Coal miner New Hope says full year profits have halved

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Speaker 1: as coal prices continue to fall. That a decent dividend

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Speaker 1: triggered a three percent jump in at share price yesterday.

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Speaker 2: You Hope owned thermal coal mines in New South Wales

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Speaker 2: and Queensland. Yesterday said it's sold its coal for an

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Speaker 2: average price of one hundred and eighty three dollars per

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Speaker 2: ton in the year ending July thirty one. That's down

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Speaker 2: from three hundred and forty six dollars per ton the

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Speaker 2: previous period. Now, that previous period was a record. Yesterday's

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Speaker 2: results were slightly blow analyst expectations. The group said a

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Speaker 2: mile of winter in the Northern Hemisphere and an increase

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Speaker 2: in customer inventories resulted in softening demand, creating downward pressure

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Speaker 2: on prices. You Hope reported a net profit all up

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Speaker 2: of four to seventy five million dollars, down from one

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Speaker 2: point one billion the previous year.

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Speaker 1: All right, turning to international news, Sean, how about this one?

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Speaker 1: The work from home revolution is waning, it seems, with

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Speaker 1: Amazon the latest big tech company to order people back

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Speaker 1: into the office five days a week, and Amazon has

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Speaker 1: a lot of.

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Speaker 2: Staff it sure it does. From next year, things are

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Speaker 2: going back to the pre COVID way of working, CEO

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Speaker 2: Andy Jase said. He said it's easier for teammates to

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Speaker 2: learn model practice and strength and culture and collaborating, brainstorming

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Speaker 2: and inventing are simpler and more effective when everyone is

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Speaker 2: in the office. Amazon will also end hot desking and

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Speaker 2: bring back as signed to floor plans in its US buildings.

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Speaker 2: Amazon spent the vanguard of the return to office drive,

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Speaker 2: making it an outlier among tech companies that continue to

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Speaker 2: offer more flexible terms. Google or requires staff regularly to

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Speaker 2: attend one of its buildings three times a week, and

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Speaker 2: many startups remain completely remote. In other sectors, such as

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Speaker 2: financial services, there have been more five day mandates, but

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Speaker 2: typically just for certain staff like traders, senior managers. In

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Speaker 2: financial services last year, JP Morgan Chase toilets managing directors.

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Speaker 2: They need to be in full time to set an

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Speaker 2: example for the rest of the company and help train juniors.

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Speaker 1: One point five to three million people that is the

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Speaker 1: Amazon on staff, and look, a lot of those wouldn't

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Speaker 1: be kind of in officers.

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Speaker 2: Now a lot of them driving the degree people.

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Speaker 1: Driving and warehouse and all that kind of thing. But

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Speaker 1: still big, big employer, and this is a big, big decision.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Sure. Is what I like about it is that

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Speaker 2: they're not going to hot desk anymore. So remember the

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Speaker 2: trend of hot desking, And so you've got your own

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Speaker 2: computer and you could sit anywhere, and everyone just ended

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Speaker 2: up sitting in the same spot all the time.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, and if you did have to move, nothing

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Speaker 1: ever felt clean.

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Speaker 2: Well this this was your nightmare, wasn't it when you

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Speaker 2: had to move and sit somewhere where someone else had

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Speaker 2: sat and you would have had you would have had whites.

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Speaker 2: I'm sure.

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Speaker 1: Just oh yeah, yeah, I was a hand sanitizer user

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Speaker 1: long before the pandemic. I've been cool for a very

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Speaker 1: long time. Sean. Donald Trump and his sons are promoting

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Speaker 1: a new crypto platform as the Republican presidential nominee courts

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Speaker 1: the digital asset sector. Just fifty days before the US election.

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Speaker 1: We're getting close.

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Speaker 2: We are getting close. And you wouldn't think that one

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Speaker 2: of the candidates would be really pushing a business interest. However, Trump,

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump Junior, and Eric Trump, along with New York

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Speaker 2: based property developer and major Trump donor Steve Whitkoff and

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Speaker 2: his sons Alex and Zach joined an X spaces conversation

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Speaker 2: on Monday where World Liberty Financial was officially announced. The

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Speaker 2: company says its mission is crystal clear, make crypto and

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Speaker 2: America great by driving the massive adoption off stable coins

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Speaker 2: and decentralized finance. The company hasn't given many details of

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Speaker 2: how it will operate or what products it will offer,

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Speaker 2: according to the Financial Times, but it has already put

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Speaker 2: out a warning on scams and fake tokens. Trump's pro

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Speaker 2: crypto comments marked a departure from his previous views. He

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Speaker 2: has previously said the value of cryptocurrencies is based on

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Speaker 2: thin air, and then investing in them is potentially a

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Speaker 2: disaster waiting to happen. But he's changed his mind. He's

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Speaker 2: embraced digital assets during the twenty twenty four campaign, accepting

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Speaker 2: donations in cryptocurrencies, calling for the US to be the

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Speaker 2: crypto capital of the planet.

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Speaker 1: I just love that. Make crypto and America great again,

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Speaker 1: like it's It is the perfect collision between Trump's politics

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Speaker 1: and Trump's business interest. That's just fantastic.

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Speaker 2: It just won't fit on the cap that's the only problem.

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Speaker 1: Oh, that's a very good point. Might need to go

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Speaker 1: to a T shirt or something for that in order

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Speaker 1: to get the whole slogan up. Next is the Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed Daily interview Patrick Coglan, CEO of Credit to

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Speaker 1: watch as your.

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Speaker 2: Guest, all about the number of companies, in fact, the

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Speaker 2: large number to three and a half years of companies

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Speaker 2: that are failing and the disturbing news about those not

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Speaker 2: paying their bills.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, it is coming up in the Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com

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Speaker 1: dot au, which is also where you sign up for

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Speaker 1: the weekly newsletter, which comes out in just a couple

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00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:50,440
Speaker 1: of hours. So make sure you have signed up now

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Speaker 1: so that when it lands at around ten thirty or

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Speaker 1: so eleven o'clock that you will be one of the

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Speaker 1: first to read it.

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Speaker 2: Thank you very much, Sean, Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Wednesday, the eighteenth of September twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great

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Speaker 1: day