WEBVTT - Inside the Powerful Elite Forces Running Iran

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<v Speaker 1>My grandmother, which is my only surviving grandparent, is there,

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<v Speaker 1>and my aunties and uncles and cousins and friends and

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<v Speaker 1>second cousins and cousins once removed. A.

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<v Speaker 2>Rash Is Easy was born and raised in Tehran. He

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<v Speaker 2>now lives in New York.

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<v Speaker 1>People very close to me are unfortunately experiencing this war,

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<v Speaker 1>and of course my hometown Tehran and my country Iran.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, they're like sibiling themselves. So to see them

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<v Speaker 1>hurt and burning, it's very difficult. And that's the difficulty

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<v Speaker 1>many Iranians have to live with now.

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<v Speaker 2>And does A Rash's family and friends suffer during the

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<v Speaker 2>ongoing US and Israeli bombing? This week, Iran announced a

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<v Speaker 2>new Supreme leader, Mochtuba Hamone, the son of the assassinated

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<v Speaker 2>Ayotola Ali Hamone. But who's really running the country now

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<v Speaker 2>and how is its elite Revolutionary Guard Corps or IIGC

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<v Speaker 2>pulling the strings. I'm Nicole Johnston and you're listening to

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<v Speaker 2>seven AM today Iranian journalist and author A rash Is Easy.

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<v Speaker 2>On what direction could Run's elite armed forces take the country.

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<v Speaker 2>It's Thursday, March twelfth. Arash Is the appointment of Mochtaba

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<v Speaker 2>Hamine a real signal that the Islamic Republic's not changing

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<v Speaker 2>its course at all, and if anything, they could be

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<v Speaker 2>hardening their position now towards the US, Israel and the West.

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<v Speaker 1>This is certainly the signal that they like to give,

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<v Speaker 1>that many of the supporters of Monshtabahamani like to give.

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<v Speaker 1>And this is how the hardline elements of the regime

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<v Speaker 1>received the news. Unpromoted it. But the reality, Nicole is

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<v Speaker 1>that Monsta is very unknown. We really don't know much

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<v Speaker 1>about this guy. And the other reality is that he

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<v Speaker 1>is going to have to share power with others.

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<v Speaker 3>He's not going to be a strong supremer at the beginning.

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<v Speaker 1>Does the selection of Mushtava means that you will have

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<v Speaker 1>a even more hardline regime for for civil future. I

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<v Speaker 1>think that's a possibility for sure, but it's in no

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<v Speaker 1>way a foregone conclusion, and there are many reasons that

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<v Speaker 1>meditate against that. It's entirely also possible that first of all,

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<v Speaker 1>he might be killed, he might be sidelined, he might

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<v Speaker 1>not be long in this world, and it's entirely possible

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<v Speaker 1>that Iran will be taken into a different direction. I

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<v Speaker 1>am humbled in my prognosis and predictions. Iran has a

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<v Speaker 1>way of humbling you, after all, I can't lie. He

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<v Speaker 1>was not my first pick. If you asked me a

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<v Speaker 1>few years ago, I wouldn't believe that he will be

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<v Speaker 1>the supremeier.

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<v Speaker 3>Yet here we are.

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<v Speaker 2>One of the things, though, that he seems to really

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<v Speaker 2>have going in his favor is the strong relationship with

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<v Speaker 2>the IIGC, the elite forces. How much of how this

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<v Speaker 2>war progresses is really down to them. Who's really in

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<v Speaker 2>charge now?

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<v Speaker 1>The Revolutionary Guards is a powerful force that controls much

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<v Speaker 1>of Iran's politics, economy, and military. What it is not, however,

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<v Speaker 1>is a unified force. It is very much a constellation

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<v Speaker 1>of a few different networks, each of which has its

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<v Speaker 1>hands in different places. So there are elements in the

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<v Speaker 1>RGC who love to deal with Russia and China. There

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<v Speaker 1>are elements who might prefer some sort of a normalization

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<v Speaker 1>with the West. There are elements who have different opinions

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<v Speaker 1>on how much internally repressive the regime should be or

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<v Speaker 1>socially so. While it is true that different parts of

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<v Speaker 1>the Revolutionary Guards hold much power now, people like Alibov

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<v Speaker 1>speak of the Parliament. Others spoken to him personally. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>you meet certain type of people who are you can

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<v Speaker 1>be clear, they have always just wanted to be their

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<v Speaker 1>country top one leader, and he's the one of them.

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<v Speaker 1>He now effectively runs the war effort. Mushtabo was in

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<v Speaker 1>many ways his candidate for supreme leadership. That's certainly what

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<v Speaker 1>his supporters told me in the last few years. So

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<v Speaker 1>you know they have the power now, but how they

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<v Speaker 1>will use it is still an open question.

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<v Speaker 2>Are you getting any sense though about what the IRGC

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<v Speaker 2>wants to do next, how they want this war to go.

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<v Speaker 1>This is a very good question because it also brings

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<v Speaker 1>me to talk about the fact that you know, there

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<v Speaker 1>are different ideological directions, but there are also different sort

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<v Speaker 1>of tactical directions, right, so sometimes what to do next

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<v Speaker 1>is not about how much you hate the vest or

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<v Speaker 1>love the vest, but about what you seem as the

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<v Speaker 1>more tactically right answer. For example, there are many across

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<v Speaker 1>the ero own political spectrum who believe Yourn should have

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear weapons and this is a tactical strategic consideration for

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<v Speaker 1>them to just believe this is a way to defend

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<v Speaker 1>their own Now, where are they going to take the war?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean that is the medium d other question, and

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<v Speaker 1>of course it's not entirely in their hand either, because

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<v Speaker 1>it's in the hand of US and Israel.

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<v Speaker 3>Perhaps the question.

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<v Speaker 1>For US and Israel is actually a clearer question, which

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<v Speaker 1>is to say, when is it an off for them?

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<v Speaker 1>For example, US can say, but we've degraded the regime's

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<v Speaker 1>military capabilities so that they won't be a threat outside

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<v Speaker 1>their borders for the next five to ten years.

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<v Speaker 4>As President Trump declared yesterday, we're crushing the enemy in

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<v Speaker 4>an overwhelming display of technical skill and military force. We

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<v Speaker 4>will not relent until the enemy is totally and decisively defeated.

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<v Speaker 4>But we do so, we do so on our timeline

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<v Speaker 4>and at our choosing.

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<v Speaker 1>Or they might say no, no, you cannot have someone

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<v Speaker 1>like Moshtaboy in charge. We need to make sure the

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<v Speaker 1>leadership changes again. We need to hit them hard, hit

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<v Speaker 1>them again until this leadership changes. For the is Nomok Republic,

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<v Speaker 1>including the revolutionary regards to correctly running the war.

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<v Speaker 3>Effort question is similar in some ways, which is to.

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<v Speaker 1>Say what kind of an end do they want to

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<v Speaker 1>get and what kind of a deal do they want?

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<v Speaker 1>Do they want as status quo antebellum basically, do they

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<v Speaker 1>want to go back to where things there on February

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<v Speaker 1>twenty eight.

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<v Speaker 5>We don't see any reason why we should negotiate with

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<v Speaker 5>the US, But then we negotiated with them twice, and

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<v Speaker 5>every time they attacked us the middle of negotiations, so

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<v Speaker 5>there is no request for a satisfied by US.

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<v Speaker 3>Do they want something more ambitious?

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<v Speaker 1>Do they want a process in which they can hope

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<v Speaker 1>for sanctions to be lifted, or do they want to

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<v Speaker 1>really become the North Korea dug in their heels five

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<v Speaker 1>to the last battle without giving up dates? But if

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<v Speaker 1>I was to guess, I would say that in order

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<v Speaker 1>to preserve their own privileges, they're more likely to find

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<v Speaker 1>some sort of a middle ground at some point. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>everybody's missiles finishes at some.

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<v Speaker 2>Point coming up the struggle for power that's ahead.

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<v Speaker 6>A rash.

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<v Speaker 2>You're in a rare position of having political sources inside

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<v Speaker 2>a run. So are you getting any sense that are

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<v Speaker 2>starting to run out of options and resources and that

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<v Speaker 2>it could eventually kind of deal.

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<v Speaker 1>If I was to guess, and I told you it's

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<v Speaker 1>a humbling thing trying to guess things in Iran, they'll

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<v Speaker 1>find some sort of a deal that would put us

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<v Speaker 1>back for a while, put Israel back for a while,

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<v Speaker 1>find a way for them to live with the region,

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<v Speaker 1>and perhaps then they would make the other changes. But

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<v Speaker 1>this is not just about us and Israel, as importantly

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<v Speaker 1>are Iran's Arab.

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<v Speaker 3>Neighbors who have not been Many of them have been

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<v Speaker 3>attacked by the regime. They're very worried about the regime.

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<v Speaker 3>We are not part of this war. We don't want

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<v Speaker 3>to be a part of that war. We don't want

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<v Speaker 3>to be dragged into it.

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<v Speaker 1>But defending our country will remain a principle that will

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<v Speaker 1>never change. And in fact, if you're an Arab nation,

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<v Speaker 1>it is an Arab majority region or twenty two Arab

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<v Speaker 1>countries in this region. Arabs have seen in the last

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<v Speaker 1>little while that non Arab powers have dominated the division. Israel,

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<v Speaker 1>Iran and Turkey have nominated the division. They've dominated them

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<v Speaker 1>by their military actions and by forces in the Arab

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<v Speaker 1>politic that are loyal to them like Hesbolaine eleven and others.

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<v Speaker 1>And this is a very unsatisfactory situation to be in.

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<v Speaker 1>So you know, what they want is to make sure

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<v Speaker 1>the region is safe. The trade goes on, leaving the

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<v Speaker 1>standards of people in the GCC countries are used to

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<v Speaker 1>will be preserved, and for that, you know they are

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<v Speaker 1>going to have to contain Iran and deal with Iran,

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<v Speaker 1>and Iran.

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<v Speaker 3>Would have to find a way to live with them.

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<v Speaker 1>So this is all the considerations that the IG and

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<v Speaker 1>Iranian leadership have to take as they figure out their

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<v Speaker 1>plans for the continuation of the war.

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<v Speaker 2>All Rash. One of the things that really struck me

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<v Speaker 2>over the last few days was that moment when Iran's

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<v Speaker 2>President Massu Pezeshkian came out and apologized to the Gulf

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<v Speaker 2>States for attacking them.

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<v Speaker 7>I must apologize on my own behalf, on behalf of Iran,

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<v Speaker 7>to the neighboring countries that are attacked by Iran. The

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<v Speaker 7>Interim Leadership Council agreed yesterday that no more attacks will

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<v Speaker 7>be made on neighboring countries.

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<v Speaker 2>Why did he do that, because it seemed a pretty

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<v Speaker 2>big u turn.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, this is a very fascinating point that really shows

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<v Speaker 1>that important elements in the regime are really worried about

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<v Speaker 1>the future of.

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<v Speaker 3>The relations with GCC countries.

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<v Speaker 1>You have to remember that Saudi Arabia in a not

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<v Speaker 1>two distant future had cut diplomatic relations with Iran other

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<v Speaker 1>Arab countries had followed. It took tremendous diplomatic effort by

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<v Speaker 1>Iran to re establish these ties. With the mediation of China,

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<v Speaker 1>Tehran and Read established their ties in twenty twenty three.

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<v Speaker 1>You don't had to slowly rebuilt its link with the

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<v Speaker 1>Imaratis with other countries.

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<v Speaker 6>Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain will establish embassies,

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<v Speaker 6>exchange ambassadors and begin the cooperate and work together so

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<v Speaker 6>strongly to cooperate as partners.

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<v Speaker 1>And even in the aftermath of the Abraham Accords, the

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<v Speaker 1>Trump mediated deal that brought diplomatic creation between Israel and

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<v Speaker 1>some Arab countries, Uron had been able to rebuild these

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<v Speaker 1>ties with Arab countries a little. And now it's so

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<v Speaker 1>all of those threatened, and a message very possession was

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<v Speaker 1>almost a panicked way of trying to say, well, don't

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<v Speaker 1>worry that everything is done. But of course he kind

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<v Speaker 1>of got a huge pushback from inside the regime, even

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<v Speaker 1>figures close to him effectively to walked back on his comments.

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<v Speaker 1>So it didn't work out so well. But it does

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<v Speaker 1>tell me, Nicole that inside the regime there is serious

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<v Speaker 1>worries about the future of Iran's relationship with its neighborhood.

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<v Speaker 2>Do you see any sign that the next chapter in

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<v Speaker 2>Iran will be any less brutal or repressive than the

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<v Speaker 2>one that we've had for almost the last forty years.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, you have to maintain some sort of optimism

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<v Speaker 1>and hope. Antonio Grams Sheet, the Italian thinker, used to say,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, you have to have optimism in the will,

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<v Speaker 1>pessimism and analysis. So you know you shouldn't sugar coult realities,

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<v Speaker 1>but you know you should have this will that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>from bad situations, better things can come. I do have

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<v Speaker 1>hope that Harmone's worse, of Harmone's zealied policies, of antimer Lachanism,

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<v Speaker 1>of wanting to destroy Israel, of wanting to impose this Puritanian,

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<v Speaker 1>puritanical Islamist vision and the Iranian people, that this will

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<v Speaker 1>be slowly discarded by whoever wins the power struggles coming

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<v Speaker 1>in Islamic Republic. And while I'm not optimistic that we'll

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<v Speaker 1>get a democratic transition or anything of the source anytime soon,

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<v Speaker 1>I think it is possible that we will get, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>less repressive condition and hopefully a more open Iran. But

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<v Speaker 1>I mean even that sounds pretty dreamy right now where

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<v Speaker 1>we are, where the abbys of a terrible war, many

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<v Speaker 1>innocent people are dying, and the political conditions don't look good.

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<v Speaker 1>It looks like people with guns, the worst sorts of

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<v Speaker 1>factions of the islam Republic are in charge of things.

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<v Speaker 1>But one has to maintain sort of as I said,

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<v Speaker 1>optimism of will. And I'll tell you this NiCl. Iran's

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<v Speaker 1>battle of democracy goes back at least our first victory

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<v Speaker 1>arrived in nineteen oh sixth in the constitutional revolution that

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<v Speaker 1>we got our first parliament, and that's more than one

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and twenty years ago. And women rights, environmental justice,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, all the other causes that matter, and we

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<v Speaker 1>should keep fighting for those and for a better Iran.

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<v Speaker 1>And this is not something that should have stopped, regardless

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<v Speaker 1>of how many senior or junior is in charge or

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<v Speaker 1>someone else.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, these fights should not stop. They should go

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<v Speaker 3>on and they will go on.

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<v Speaker 2>Ah Rash, thanks so much for talking to us today.

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<v Speaker 1>Of course, thank you so much, thanks for having me.

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<v Speaker 2>Also in the news, newly elected Nationals leader Matt Canavan

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<v Speaker 2>says we need more Australian everything, including babies, farming and

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<v Speaker 2>fossil fuel powered barbecues. The right wing Queensland senator beat

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<v Speaker 2>out Bridget McKenzie and Kevin Hogan in a three way

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<v Speaker 2>for the top job. Darren Chester will be his deputy

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<v Speaker 2>as the new leadership tries to fend off for surging.

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<v Speaker 2>One nation and one of the seven Iranian soccer players

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<v Speaker 2>given asylum in Australia has decided to return to Iran

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<v Speaker 2>after all. According to Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke, the

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<v Speaker 2>Iranian government now says the women will be welcomed hoe

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<v Speaker 2>and need not fear punishment, accusing Australia of frightening the

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<v Speaker 2>players and pressuring them to seek asylum. I'm Nicole Johnston.

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<v Speaker 2>This is seven am. Thanks for listening.