Speaker 1: My grandmother, which is my only surviving grandparent, is there,
Speaker 1: and my aunties and uncles and cousins and friends and
Speaker 1: second cousins and cousins once removed. A.
Speaker 2: Rash Is Easy was born and raised in Tehran. He
Speaker 2: now lives in New York.
Speaker 1: People very close to me are unfortunately experiencing this war,
Speaker 1: and of course my hometown Tehran and my country Iran.
Speaker 1: You know, they're like sibiling themselves. So to see them
Speaker 1: hurt and burning, it's very difficult. And that's the difficulty
Speaker 1: many Iranians have to live with now.
Speaker 2: And does A Rash's family and friends suffer during the
Speaker 2: ongoing US and Israeli bombing? This week, Iran announced a
Speaker 2: new Supreme leader, Mochtuba Hamone, the son of the assassinated
Speaker 2: Ayotola Ali Hamone. But who's really running the country now
Speaker 2: and how is its elite Revolutionary Guard Corps or IIGC
Speaker 2: pulling the strings. I'm Nicole Johnston and you're listening to
Speaker 2: seven AM today Iranian journalist and author A rash Is Easy.
Speaker 2: On what direction could Run's elite armed forces take the country.
Speaker 2: It's Thursday, March twelfth. Arash Is the appointment of Mochtaba
Speaker 2: Hamine a real signal that the Islamic Republic's not changing
Speaker 2: its course at all, and if anything, they could be
Speaker 2: hardening their position now towards the US, Israel and the West.
Speaker 1: This is certainly the signal that they like to give,
Speaker 1: that many of the supporters of Monshtabahamani like to give.
Speaker 1: And this is how the hardline elements of the regime
Speaker 1: received the news. Unpromoted it. But the reality, Nicole is
Speaker 1: that Monsta is very unknown. We really don't know much
Speaker 1: about this guy. And the other reality is that he
Speaker 1: is going to have to share power with others.
Speaker 3: He's not going to be a strong supremer at the beginning.
Speaker 1: Does the selection of Mushtava means that you will have
Speaker 1: a even more hardline regime for for civil future. I
Speaker 1: think that's a possibility for sure, but it's in no
Speaker 1: way a foregone conclusion, and there are many reasons that
Speaker 1: meditate against that. It's entirely also possible that first of all,
Speaker 1: he might be killed, he might be sidelined, he might
Speaker 1: not be long in this world, and it's entirely possible
Speaker 1: that Iran will be taken into a different direction. I
Speaker 1: am humbled in my prognosis and predictions. Iran has a
Speaker 1: way of humbling you, after all, I can't lie. He
Speaker 1: was not my first pick. If you asked me a
Speaker 1: few years ago, I wouldn't believe that he will be
Speaker 1: the supremeier.
Speaker 3: Yet here we are.
Speaker 2: One of the things, though, that he seems to really
Speaker 2: have going in his favor is the strong relationship with
Speaker 2: the IIGC, the elite forces. How much of how this
Speaker 2: war progresses is really down to them. Who's really in
Speaker 2: charge now?
Speaker 1: The Revolutionary Guards is a powerful force that controls much
Speaker 1: of Iran's politics, economy, and military. What it is not, however,
Speaker 1: is a unified force. It is very much a constellation
Speaker 1: of a few different networks, each of which has its
Speaker 1: hands in different places. So there are elements in the
Speaker 1: RGC who love to deal with Russia and China. There
Speaker 1: are elements who might prefer some sort of a normalization
Speaker 1: with the West. There are elements who have different opinions
Speaker 1: on how much internally repressive the regime should be or
Speaker 1: socially so. While it is true that different parts of
Speaker 1: the Revolutionary Guards hold much power now, people like Alibov
Speaker 1: speak of the Parliament. Others spoken to him personally. You know,
Speaker 1: you meet certain type of people who are you can
Speaker 1: be clear, they have always just wanted to be their
Speaker 1: country top one leader, and he's the one of them.
Speaker 1: He now effectively runs the war effort. Mushtabo was in
Speaker 1: many ways his candidate for supreme leadership. That's certainly what
Speaker 1: his supporters told me in the last few years. So
Speaker 1: you know they have the power now, but how they
Speaker 1: will use it is still an open question.
Speaker 2: Are you getting any sense though about what the IRGC
Speaker 2: wants to do next, how they want this war to go.
Speaker 1: This is a very good question because it also brings
Speaker 1: me to talk about the fact that you know, there
Speaker 1: are different ideological directions, but there are also different sort
Speaker 1: of tactical directions, right, so sometimes what to do next
Speaker 1: is not about how much you hate the vest or
Speaker 1: love the vest, but about what you seem as the
Speaker 1: more tactically right answer. For example, there are many across
Speaker 1: the ero own political spectrum who believe Yourn should have
Speaker 1: nuclear weapons and this is a tactical strategic consideration for
Speaker 1: them to just believe this is a way to defend
Speaker 1: their own Now, where are they going to take the war?
Speaker 1: I mean that is the medium d other question, and
Speaker 1: of course it's not entirely in their hand either, because
Speaker 1: it's in the hand of US and Israel.
Speaker 3: Perhaps the question.
Speaker 1: For US and Israel is actually a clearer question, which
Speaker 1: is to say, when is it an off for them?
Speaker 1: For example, US can say, but we've degraded the regime's
Speaker 1: military capabilities so that they won't be a threat outside
Speaker 1: their borders for the next five to ten years.
Speaker 4: As President Trump declared yesterday, we're crushing the enemy in
Speaker 4: an overwhelming display of technical skill and military force. We
Speaker 4: will not relent until the enemy is totally and decisively defeated.
Speaker 4: But we do so, we do so on our timeline
Speaker 4: and at our choosing.
Speaker 1: Or they might say no, no, you cannot have someone
Speaker 1: like Moshtaboy in charge. We need to make sure the
Speaker 1: leadership changes again. We need to hit them hard, hit
Speaker 1: them again until this leadership changes. For the is Nomok Republic,
Speaker 1: including the revolutionary regards to correctly running the war.
Speaker 3: Effort question is similar in some ways, which is to.
Speaker 1: Say what kind of an end do they want to
Speaker 1: get and what kind of a deal do they want?
Speaker 1: Do they want as status quo antebellum basically, do they
Speaker 1: want to go back to where things there on February
Speaker 1: twenty eight.
Speaker 5: We don't see any reason why we should negotiate with
Speaker 5: the US, But then we negotiated with them twice, and
Speaker 5: every time they attacked us the middle of negotiations, so
Speaker 5: there is no request for a satisfied by US.
Speaker 3: Do they want something more ambitious?
Speaker 1: Do they want a process in which they can hope
Speaker 1: for sanctions to be lifted, or do they want to
Speaker 1: really become the North Korea dug in their heels five
Speaker 1: to the last battle without giving up dates? But if
Speaker 1: I was to guess, I would say that in order
Speaker 1: to preserve their own privileges, they're more likely to find
Speaker 1: some sort of a middle ground at some point. You know,
Speaker 1: everybody's missiles finishes at some.
Speaker 2: Point coming up the struggle for power that's ahead.
Speaker 6: A rash.
Speaker 2: You're in a rare position of having political sources inside
Speaker 2: a run. So are you getting any sense that are
Speaker 2: starting to run out of options and resources and that
Speaker 2: it could eventually kind of deal.
Speaker 1: If I was to guess, and I told you it's
Speaker 1: a humbling thing trying to guess things in Iran, they'll
Speaker 1: find some sort of a deal that would put us
Speaker 1: back for a while, put Israel back for a while,
Speaker 1: find a way for them to live with the region,
Speaker 1: and perhaps then they would make the other changes. But
Speaker 1: this is not just about us and Israel, as importantly
Speaker 1: are Iran's Arab.
Speaker 3: Neighbors who have not been Many of them have been
Speaker 3: attacked by the regime. They're very worried about the regime.
Speaker 3: We are not part of this war. We don't want
Speaker 3: to be a part of that war. We don't want
Speaker 3: to be dragged into it.
Speaker 1: But defending our country will remain a principle that will
Speaker 1: never change. And in fact, if you're an Arab nation,
Speaker 1: it is an Arab majority region or twenty two Arab
Speaker 1: countries in this region. Arabs have seen in the last
Speaker 1: little while that non Arab powers have dominated the division. Israel,
Speaker 1: Iran and Turkey have nominated the division. They've dominated them
Speaker 1: by their military actions and by forces in the Arab
Speaker 1: politic that are loyal to them like Hesbolaine eleven and others.
Speaker 1: And this is a very unsatisfactory situation to be in.
Speaker 1: So you know, what they want is to make sure
Speaker 1: the region is safe. The trade goes on, leaving the
Speaker 1: standards of people in the GCC countries are used to
Speaker 1: will be preserved, and for that, you know they are
Speaker 1: going to have to contain Iran and deal with Iran,
Speaker 1: and Iran.
Speaker 3: Would have to find a way to live with them.
Speaker 1: So this is all the considerations that the IG and
Speaker 1: Iranian leadership have to take as they figure out their
Speaker 1: plans for the continuation of the war.
Speaker 2: All Rash. One of the things that really struck me
Speaker 2: over the last few days was that moment when Iran's
Speaker 2: President Massu Pezeshkian came out and apologized to the Gulf
Speaker 2: States for attacking them.
Speaker 7: I must apologize on my own behalf, on behalf of Iran,
Speaker 7: to the neighboring countries that are attacked by Iran. The
Speaker 7: Interim Leadership Council agreed yesterday that no more attacks will
Speaker 7: be made on neighboring countries.
Speaker 2: Why did he do that, because it seemed a pretty
Speaker 2: big u turn.
Speaker 1: Well, this is a very fascinating point that really shows
Speaker 1: that important elements in the regime are really worried about
Speaker 1: the future of.
Speaker 3: The relations with GCC countries.
Speaker 1: You have to remember that Saudi Arabia in a not
Speaker 1: two distant future had cut diplomatic relations with Iran other
Speaker 1: Arab countries had followed. It took tremendous diplomatic effort by
Speaker 1: Iran to re establish these ties. With the mediation of China,
Speaker 1: Tehran and Read established their ties in twenty twenty three.
Speaker 1: You don't had to slowly rebuilt its link with the
Speaker 1: Imaratis with other countries.
Speaker 6: Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain will establish embassies,
Speaker 6: exchange ambassadors and begin the cooperate and work together so
Speaker 6: strongly to cooperate as partners.
Speaker 1: And even in the aftermath of the Abraham Accords, the
Speaker 1: Trump mediated deal that brought diplomatic creation between Israel and
Speaker 1: some Arab countries, Uron had been able to rebuild these
Speaker 1: ties with Arab countries a little. And now it's so
Speaker 1: all of those threatened, and a message very possession was
Speaker 1: almost a panicked way of trying to say, well, don't
Speaker 1: worry that everything is done. But of course he kind
Speaker 1: of got a huge pushback from inside the regime, even
Speaker 1: figures close to him effectively to walked back on his comments.
Speaker 1: So it didn't work out so well. But it does
Speaker 1: tell me, Nicole that inside the regime there is serious
Speaker 1: worries about the future of Iran's relationship with its neighborhood.
Speaker 2: Do you see any sign that the next chapter in
Speaker 2: Iran will be any less brutal or repressive than the
Speaker 2: one that we've had for almost the last forty years.
Speaker 1: You know, you have to maintain some sort of optimism
Speaker 1: and hope. Antonio Grams Sheet, the Italian thinker, used to say,
Speaker 1: you know, you have to have optimism in the will,
Speaker 1: pessimism and analysis. So you know you shouldn't sugar coult realities,
Speaker 1: but you know you should have this will that you know,
Speaker 1: from bad situations, better things can come. I do have
Speaker 1: hope that Harmone's worse, of Harmone's zealied policies, of antimer Lachanism,
Speaker 1: of wanting to destroy Israel, of wanting to impose this Puritanian,
Speaker 1: puritanical Islamist vision and the Iranian people, that this will
Speaker 1: be slowly discarded by whoever wins the power struggles coming
Speaker 1: in Islamic Republic. And while I'm not optimistic that we'll
Speaker 1: get a democratic transition or anything of the source anytime soon,
Speaker 1: I think it is possible that we will get, you know,
Speaker 1: less repressive condition and hopefully a more open Iran. But
Speaker 1: I mean even that sounds pretty dreamy right now where
Speaker 1: we are, where the abbys of a terrible war, many
Speaker 1: innocent people are dying, and the political conditions don't look good.
Speaker 1: It looks like people with guns, the worst sorts of
Speaker 1: factions of the islam Republic are in charge of things.
Speaker 1: But one has to maintain sort of as I said,
Speaker 1: optimism of will. And I'll tell you this NiCl. Iran's
Speaker 1: battle of democracy goes back at least our first victory
Speaker 1: arrived in nineteen oh sixth in the constitutional revolution that
Speaker 1: we got our first parliament, and that's more than one
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty years ago. And women rights, environmental justice,
Speaker 1: you know, all the other causes that matter, and we
Speaker 1: should keep fighting for those and for a better Iran.
Speaker 1: And this is not something that should have stopped, regardless
Speaker 1: of how many senior or junior is in charge or
Speaker 1: someone else.
Speaker 3: You know, these fights should not stop. They should go
Speaker 3: on and they will go on.
Speaker 2: Ah Rash, thanks so much for talking to us today.
Speaker 1: Of course, thank you so much, thanks for having me.
Speaker 2: Also in the news, newly elected Nationals leader Matt Canavan
Speaker 2: says we need more Australian everything, including babies, farming and
Speaker 2: fossil fuel powered barbecues. The right wing Queensland senator beat
Speaker 2: out Bridget McKenzie and Kevin Hogan in a three way
Speaker 2: for the top job. Darren Chester will be his deputy
Speaker 2: as the new leadership tries to fend off for surging.
Speaker 2: One nation and one of the seven Iranian soccer players
Speaker 2: given asylum in Australia has decided to return to Iran
Speaker 2: after all. According to Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke, the
Speaker 2: Iranian government now says the women will be welcomed hoe
Speaker 2: and need not fear punishment, accusing Australia of frightening the
Speaker 2: players and pressuring them to seek asylum. I'm Nicole Johnston.
Speaker 2: This is seven am. Thanks for listening.