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Speaker 1: The federal government has been forced to backtrack after appearing

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Speaker 1: to blame the Reserve Bank for the floundering economy. Apple

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Speaker 1: and Huawei are going head to head with their next

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Speaker 1: new device releases, and the new flexible working trend Chrono

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Speaker 1: working is getting a few local fans. Welcome to Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed. Daily business news for people who make their

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Speaker 1: own decisions. It is Wednesday, the fourth of September twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning.

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Speaker 2: Adam Lang.

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Speaker 3: Good morning, Michael, Adam.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning, the question of who is

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Speaker 1: to blame for the flagging economy, has caused a few

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Speaker 1: sparks in Canberra. Treasurer Jim Chalmers appeared to be blaming

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Speaker 1: the Reserve Bank and has now been forced to walk

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Speaker 1: back his earlier commentary.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Michael, this is quite a spicy war of words.

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Speaker 4: The drama all kicked off on Sunday evening when Chalmers

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Speaker 4: put out his pre GDP statement telling everyone it was

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Speaker 4: going to be a pretty soft result, but he also

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Speaker 4: mentioned the rates are smashing the economy. That's basically what

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Speaker 4: high interest rates are designed to do. But it resulted

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Speaker 4: in a flurry of media coverage that he was blaming

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Speaker 4: the RBA. On Tuesday, he was talking at back down

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Speaker 4: saying he and the RBA are both working well to

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Speaker 4: deal with the same challenge, that being high inflation. Reserve

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Speaker 4: Bank Governor Michelle Bullock is giving two speeches tomorrow, so

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Speaker 4: it may well spark up again.

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Speaker 1: How bad is the GDP data likely to be when

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Speaker 1: it comes out today?

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Speaker 3: Michael?

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Speaker 4: The Australian Bureau Statistics will release the Australian National accounts

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Speaker 4: including Gross Domestic Product at eleven thirty am that's Eastern

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Speaker 4: Standard time this morning. These numbers will get a lot

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Speaker 4: of oxygen in the next twenty four hours and possibly

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Speaker 4: be painful for the government. Yesterday morning, the final inputs

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Speaker 4: were published, prompting economists to refine their predictions that GDP

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Speaker 4: growth in June was the worst in decades outside of

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Speaker 4: the dramatic COVID lockdowns. That is significant and.

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Speaker 1: We'll obviously be keeping a very close eye on those

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Speaker 1: and that data when it's released at eleven thirty this morning,

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Speaker 1: and the Fear and Greed weekly newsletter will come out

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Speaker 1: shortly after, so if you haven't already subscribed to that,

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Speaker 1: you can head along to fearangreed dot com dot au

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Speaker 1: and pop your email address in so that you get

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Speaker 1: all the latest as soon as it happens. Those comments

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Speaker 1: from Jim Chalmers are quite interesting. You can see why

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Speaker 1: he is kind of had to unwind it a little

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Speaker 1: bit because it does make the Reserve Bank, it kind

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Speaker 1: of politicizes the decision to keep rates as high as

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Speaker 1: they have.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Michael, I think that's right. And particularly as we

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Speaker 4: head towards an election, just the attention on anything that

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Speaker 4: could even be political seems to rise up quickly.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: And as you made the point, Adam, that's exactly what

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Speaker 1: high interest rates are designed to do. That it is

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Speaker 1: designed to cool the economy, to bring inflation back down.

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Speaker 1: So it's just the Reserve Bank is doing exactly what

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Speaker 1: it's supposed to do.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: And look the fact that Michelle Bullok is giving two speeches.

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Speaker 4: I think not only when we expect something in those speeches,

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Speaker 4: but there'll always be hoped too that maybe a few

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Speaker 4: questions get in and we'll see what those impromptu responses

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Speaker 4: look like.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Very big few days for the economy, very exciting few

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Speaker 1: days for economists. And we'll have everything this afternoon on

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Speaker 1: the afternoon report in an interview tomorrow morning as well.

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Speaker 1: To dissect it all, let's have a look at local markets. Yesterday,

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Speaker 1: the S and PA s X two hundred closed down

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Speaker 1: zero point one percent to eighty one hundred and three points,

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Speaker 1: again recovering a bit over the day after some steeper

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Speaker 1: morning losses.

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Speaker 4: Yes Michael It and Financials were the top performers over

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Speaker 4: the day, with Commonwealth Bank hitting a new high, ending

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Speaker 4: the day up another one percent. The deepest losses were

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Speaker 4: in consumer staples, metals, and mining and materials, amid concerns

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Speaker 4: about the Chinese economy and commodity prices. The falls were

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Speaker 4: led by Mineral Resources and Liontown Resources, both down eight

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Speaker 4: and a half percent. Will Worth fell two point eight

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Speaker 4: percent and Coals was down two point four both of

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Speaker 4: those two stocks training ex dividend travel business Kelsian Group

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Speaker 4: was a top performer, up five point eight percent after

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Speaker 4: posting expectation beating earnings just last week. Though Kelsian Groups

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Speaker 4: saw its shares full twenty five percent after unveiling cost

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Speaker 4: overruns on the construction of its new Kangaroo Island. Ferry

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Speaker 4: Meyer announced it will shut all of its Sassin byed

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Speaker 4: retail outlets and instead bring the branded fashion into their

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Speaker 4: department stores, and their shares were flat.

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Speaker 1: Was a Kath and Kim that used to call Sassin

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Speaker 1: bayd Sassin b day.

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Speaker 3: There must be an episode I've missed, Michael. I hadn't

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Speaker 3: heard that.

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Speaker 1: It's always stuck in my head now and it's one

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Speaker 1: of those things now whenever I see it, we've got

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Speaker 1: to go Okay, got to remember the actual correct pronunciation

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Speaker 1: so that you don't embarrass unflattering. Yeah, it certainly is. Anyway,

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Speaker 1: enough of that overseas. Still about China.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Michael, Well, it's such a profound impact on global training.

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Speaker 4: The Chinese economic slowdown is create adding more attention in

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Speaker 4: international markets and has obviously had an effect in Australia already.

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Speaker 4: Earlier this week we covered that the large stockpiles of

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Speaker 4: steel coming onto the market are due to a slowdown

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Speaker 4: in residential building in China, but their commodity stash is

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Speaker 4: growing across a range of raw materials and that includes

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Speaker 4: soybeans and coal. China does tend to hold onto some

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Speaker 4: of the biggest stockpiles in the world of key commodities,

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Speaker 4: and they include also oil and wheat. Even in the

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Speaker 4: good times, but now that the economy is slowing and

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Speaker 4: demand is easing too, this is expected to hit prices hard.

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Speaker 1: And Adam, it's been a volatile year this year for

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Speaker 1: the Japanese yen, hasn't it.

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Speaker 4: It has, and that volatility has pushed the end to

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Speaker 4: nineteen eighty six level lows in June and prompted dire

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Speaker 4: warnings about its trajectory. But currency strategists have done a

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Speaker 4: dramatic U turn this week and now think the yen

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Speaker 4: will strengthen against the dollar, with a Bank of Japan's

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Speaker 4: intervention and the expected interest rate cuts from the US

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Speaker 4: Federal Reserve being behind the change in views. And one

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Speaker 4: other Michael from the international scene. The UK Tax Authority

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Speaker 4: His Majesty's Revenue and Customs has chosen to stop its

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Speaker 4: ban on fractional shares. It's no longer enforcing its opposition

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Speaker 4: to tax free personal savings accounts that hold a portion

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Speaker 4: of stock in anticipation of a change in the UK

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Speaker 4: rules in a few months. That has been confirmed by

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Speaker 4: the government. Investors holding on to fractional shares ahead of

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Speaker 4: the changes won't be policed due to this quote unquote

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Speaker 4: pragmatic approach Adam.

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Speaker 1: A very quick mention before we go to a break

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Speaker 1: of the interview, the daily interview that's coming up after

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Speaker 1: the show today. This is it is one of my

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Speaker 1: favorite interviews of this year. Shawn Almer speaking to Mark Collette,

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Speaker 1: who is the Managing Director of Energy Australia, so he's

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Speaker 1: the boss of an energy company and talking to us

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Speaker 1: about the energy transition. And part of it is about

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Speaker 1: some recent research that was done by KPMG that shows

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Speaker 1: that only one in four Australians have actually heard of

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Speaker 1: the energy transition, and which is to me quite staggering.

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Speaker 1: And I suppose it's because we are talking about it

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Speaker 1: so often on this podcast and it's kind of such

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Speaker 1: a big feature in the business world, but broadly outside

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Speaker 1: of that, only one in four Australians have actually heard

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Speaker 1: of it. And so this is about the challenges for

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Speaker 1: a business like Energy Australia, about kind of meeting the

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Speaker 1: needs of the energy transition, the most basic need, which

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Speaker 1: is to keep the lights on, and the other one,

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Speaker 1: which is keeping prices, if not down, at least predictable

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Speaker 1: so that people will know what they need to pay.

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Speaker 1: And this is a great conversation between Sean and Mark Collette,

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Speaker 1: the Managing Director of Energy Australia, about all of that.

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Speaker 1: He is a very enthusiastic person about the energy transition

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Speaker 1: and about what needs to be done and about the

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Speaker 1: size of the project. But it is very optimistic about

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Speaker 1: Australia's capacity to actually do it.

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Speaker 2: It is a great chat.

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Speaker 4: It's it's actually staggering to me that only one in

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Speaker 4: four understand about the energy transition. That just it's an

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Speaker 4: indictment really on us in a way in terms of

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Speaker 4: the media communicating this. But also you can imagine just

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Speaker 4: in a cost of living pressured environment, how that's not

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Speaker 4: people's first concern. It's just I need to pay bills.

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Speaker 4: So what a great challenge.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, indeed, so stick around for that one. It's coming

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Speaker 1: up after the show. In the meantime, we'll be back

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Speaker 1: in a moment with the rest of the day's business news.

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Speaker 1: Adam Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong used a significant speech

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Speaker 1: yesterday at the Asia Summit to double down on the

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Speaker 1: need for Australia to undertake more investment in the region.

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Speaker 4: Yes Michael penny Wong pointed out the enormous amounts of

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Speaker 4: cash flooding into Southeast Asia from the US and China

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Speaker 4: and said Australia is not keeping pace despite having a

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Speaker 4: good foundation with the region. She warned Australia is being

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Speaker 4: left behind and that's solely relying on a relationship with

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Speaker 4: China means missing out on the benefit of getting ahead

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Speaker 4: in growing markets and facing more instability and vulnerability. She

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Speaker 4: used her speech to explain that while restoring a dialogue

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Speaker 4: with China and improving that relationship is critical, a large

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Speaker 4: part of the answer to the shifting global challenge is

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Speaker 4: the thousands of kilometers between Australia, the United States and

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Speaker 4: China and the Indo Pacific. In the first six months

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Speaker 4: of twenty twenty four, Ostrade achieved a record number of

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Speaker 4: clients in Southeast Asia, up fifty eight percent to more

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Speaker 4: than one billion in commercial results.

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Speaker 1: That is a good result, yeah, indeed, it is now

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Speaker 1: The title of the biggest private company in Australia has

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Speaker 1: been won by Gina Reinhart Hancock prospecting again again.

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Speaker 4: Hancock held onto the top spot in Ibsworld's Top five

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Speaker 4: hundred and that was reported in The Australian Second place

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Speaker 4: also did not budge this year, with USY Industries holding

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Speaker 4: onto that spot. Third place was taken up by pallian

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Speaker 4: A Gold and precious metal VISs Group, which not United

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Speaker 4: Petroleum off its.

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Speaker 3: Perch and into four spot. Get this, Michael.

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Speaker 4: The average revenue of the top five hundred companies increased

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Speaker 4: to seven hundred and nineteen point seven million. That's up

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Speaker 4: from six hundred and seventy two point six million in

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Speaker 4: the last financial year twenty twenty two to twenty twenty three,

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Speaker 4: and eighty six point eight percent had higher revenue growth

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Speaker 4: than the year before, and that was up from about

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Speaker 4: three quarters on the last measure. So this pool of

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Speaker 4: private earnings is growing.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, indeed it is. You know, I love a good list, Adam.

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Speaker 1: That was what the top five or so? Have you

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Speaker 1: got the other companies that made the top ten just

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Speaker 1: out of sheer curiosity?

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Speaker 3: Fortunately I do, Michael, So glad you asked.

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Speaker 4: CBH Group came in at fifth, VGW Holdings came in

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Speaker 4: at sixth. Hcf Lynn, Fox, Peregrine, and Hutchy's Builders all

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Speaker 4: rounded out of the top ten. Chemist Warehouse and Saint

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Speaker 4: Vincent's Health just missed out.

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Speaker 2: Oh, Chemist Warehouse, there we go.

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Speaker 1: That won't necessarily be a private company for too much longer,

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Speaker 1: so this might be its last year on the list.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, maybe not, Michael, And even amongst those names, I

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Speaker 4: think it'd be interesting for listeners to tell us how

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Speaker 4: many of them have they heard of outside of this list,

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Speaker 4: because not all of them are consumer brands.

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Speaker 1: No, that's a good point. That's a very good point,

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Speaker 1: especially when you look at kind of Cbch Group or

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Speaker 1: I hadn't actually heard of Palian before, Peregrine, Hutches Builders, No, neither,

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Speaker 1: very big companies that not everyone has heard of. Indeed, indeed, anyway,

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Speaker 1: fascinating list.

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Speaker 2: I love a good list.

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Speaker 1: We should try and include a list every day. Might

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Speaker 1: be making a rod for our own.

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Speaker 3: I'll do my best, all right.

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Speaker 1: Now, big deals, we love a big deal on Fear

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Speaker 1: and Read and this could be one of the biggest

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Speaker 1: infrastructure deals of the year. New York based Blackstone has

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Speaker 1: won out to buy Australian data center business air Trunk.

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Speaker 4: Michael on this big deal I think qualifies as massive.

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Speaker 4: The deal is expected to be worth more than twenty

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Speaker 4: billion dollars including debt, and Blackstone has emerged as the

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Speaker 4: top bidder for the business, which was launched in twenty sixteen.

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Speaker 4: It's only twenty sixteen, eight years ago, and has since

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Speaker 4: expanded across Asia. Ear Trunk's majority stakeholders Mcquari Group and

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Speaker 4: PSP Investments are looking to finalize a deal, but so

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Speaker 4: far no one is commenting publicly on the tightly held

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Speaker 4: details of the arrangement, though multiple media sources are reporting

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Speaker 4: that it is imminent. A consortium including IFM investors, Digital Bridge,

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Speaker 4: Global Infrastructure Partners, Silverlake and MGX also made offers, but

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Speaker 4: have now been pushed out by Blackstone's more generous bid.

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Speaker 3: Adam.

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Speaker 1: More than half of Australians are running out of cash

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Speaker 1: before payday on a regular basis. That's according to some

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Speaker 1: pretty alarming new data from Finder, which suggests that many

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Speaker 1: are struggling to make ends meet.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Michael, I think this is alarming and interesting. Particularly

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Speaker 4: earning is that sixteen percent of the one thousand surveyed

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Speaker 4: said they run out of money every single month, and

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Speaker 4: on average that cohort runs short at about two hundred

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Speaker 4: and forty nine dollars a month, though not just a

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Speaker 4: little bit. What is most worrying is that women were

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Speaker 4: almost twice as likely as men to say they fall

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Speaker 4: short every month, which may well be due to the

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Speaker 4: gender pay gap, among other factors. Those surveyed generally said

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Speaker 4: the cost of living and unexpected expenses were the top

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Speaker 4: causes for falling behind, with too much spending early in

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Speaker 4: the month, a lack of an emergency fund, and high

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Speaker 4: debt repayments which were also cited as reasons for the

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Speaker 4: cash flow shortage.

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Speaker 1: But Adam, there might be some good news for home

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Speaker 1: borrowers and those doing it tough right now with repayments.

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Speaker 1: The mortgage wars might soon be back on. Mcquarie Bank

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Speaker 1: grew its home loan book at five times the rate

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Speaker 1: of competitor banks in July.

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Speaker 3: That's right, Michael.

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Speaker 4: Australian Prudential Regulation Authority data shows that mcquarie's mortgage business

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Speaker 4: grew by one point six percent to a zero point

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Speaker 4: three percent growth in the market average. The Financial Review

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Speaker 4: is reporting that this is a sign that competition is

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Speaker 4: soon to hot up for mortgages, which could help drive

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Speaker 4: interest rates down or spur on some attractive refinance and

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Speaker 4: new loan offers. That's mainly because mcquarie is a challenger

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Speaker 4: bank to the Big four and they were a driving

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Speaker 4: force for the twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three

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Speaker 4: mortgage wars by attracting those coming off fixed rates from

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Speaker 4: the big banks. Another sign suggesting there could be better

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Speaker 4: off as soon is that the Pandemic error RBA issued

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Speaker 4: term funding facility ended on thirty June, enabling banks to

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Speaker 4: be more competitive on rates without hurting their margins as much.

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Speaker 2: Adam, have you ever heard of chrona working?

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Speaker 1: It means essentially giving workers the chance to pick their

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Speaker 1: hours based on their natural sleep patterns, which is an

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Speaker 1: interesting concept.

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Speaker 2: It's a trend in the UK.

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Speaker 1: That may well be taking off locally.

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Speaker 4: Sleep pattern work now, I have heard of that, Michael,

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Speaker 4: and apparently it's all about rethinking the workplace and what

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Speaker 4: constitutes traditional work. The idea is to ditch the nine

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Speaker 4: to five totally and instead let workers pick their own

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Speaker 4: suitable hours.

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Speaker 3: Imagine that.

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Speaker 4: Proponents of the trend think it has the potential to

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Speaker 4: open up jobs beyond geographical borders too. But could it

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Speaker 4: take off here and maybe? Global recruitment firm Robert Walters,

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Speaker 4: their Australian and New Zealand arm has asked locals what

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Speaker 4: they think of it, and the response has been quite positive.

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Speaker 4: About four out of ten Australians believe their mental health

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Speaker 4: would improve by getting on board with what you've called

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Speaker 4: chrono working, and thirty nine percent thought it would improve

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Speaker 4: their productivity and focus. Australians are also interested in the

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Speaker 4: four day work week. Imagine that too. UK government is

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Speaker 4: currently exploring giving workers the right to request a four

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Speaker 4: day work week model as well.

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Speaker 1: I don't mind the idea of choosing when you work

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Speaker 1: based on when you sleep and when you are at

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Speaker 1: your most efficient, because you can get four hours of

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Speaker 1: really high quality work done and say between four am

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Speaker 1: and at am, and half your work day could be

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Speaker 1: done before anyone else is even at their desk.

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Speaker 4: And then what do you do from age to twelve?

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Speaker 3: Michael, you have a little nap.

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Speaker 2: That's when you ever snooze.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it didn't say it all makes sense,

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Speaker 1: but but I mean colectively, yeah, selectively. Anyway, it's an idea.

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Speaker 1: It is an idea, and it catches on. Don't know

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Speaker 1: whether it'll take off at fear and greed, but we

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Speaker 1: shall watch it with great interest. Turning to international news now, Adam,

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Speaker 1: it is not great news for automakers at the moment.

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Speaker 1: Volkswagen is warning that it's looking at factory closures for

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Speaker 1: the first time in its history in Germany that could

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Speaker 1: slash jobs.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Michael, and as you say, this is historic. The

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Speaker 4: iconic car builder behind Audi and Porsche is in the

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Speaker 4: midst of significant competitive pressure and he's struggling to deliver

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Speaker 4: solid profits as it looks to transition away from fossil

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Speaker 4: fuel vehicles. It's looking to save billions of dollars in

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Speaker 4: costs as it shifts to producing those less profitable electric cars.

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Speaker 4: Such a decision will put it on a collision course

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Speaker 4: with the local carmaker worker union that's ig Metal, which

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Speaker 4: has already said it will push back against job cuts

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Speaker 4: and a possible scrapping of job security guarantees. Discussions are

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Speaker 4: going to happen later this week, but it's already looking

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Speaker 4: quite tense.

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Speaker 1: Now, Adam, for our last story, I'm not going to

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Speaker 1: call this the perfect amount of petty, but I think

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Speaker 1: if there is such a thing, but I'd be interested

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Speaker 1: to see how others will interpret this. China's major smartphone producer, Huawei,

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Speaker 1: has announced a new showcase for its latest smart products

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Speaker 1: as you do, and it all happened just hours after

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Speaker 1: Apple's already scheduled release of its iPhone sixteen.

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Speaker 4: Oh that's strategic, isn't it? Just hours after? So September

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Speaker 4: nine is the globe date for the showdown between the

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Speaker 4: smartphone giants, and it's going to be a fascinating comparison

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Speaker 4: of technology, with Huawei to release the world's first smartphone

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Speaker 4: that folds twice, known as a trifold, and according to Bloomberg,

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Speaker 4: possibly an electric vehicle launch, though that's still not fully confirmed.

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Speaker 4: Apple is releasing its new upgraded iPhones and a raft

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Speaker 4: of accessories. The new iPhone is due to have a

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Speaker 4: bunch of AI enabled features, better cameras and zoom abilities,

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Speaker 4: and no doubt, some more surprises on the day.

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Speaker 1: Do you reckon it was strategic or do you reckon

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Speaker 1: that no one looked at the calendar before they send

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Speaker 1: it out.

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Speaker 3: Just a happy accident. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Then they set it out and they go, oh, oh dear,

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Speaker 1: there's a clash.

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Speaker 3: Were going first, we've.

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Speaker 1: Already sent out the invitations. Let's just pretend it's strategic.

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Speaker 1: And now they're getting all of this, all this praise

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Speaker 1: for very very smart maneuvers.

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Speaker 4: Well, it's quite a good battle really as a spectator sport,

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Speaker 4: isn't it?

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Speaker 3: Oh?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, head to head?

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Speaker 1: It's it really is something speaking of really is something Adam.

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Speaker 1: Up next is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview and

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Speaker 1: Absolute Cracker Today with Mark Collette, Managing Director of Energy Australia.

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Speaker 1: I talked a lot about it earlier, so I won't

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Speaker 1: go into it again, but suffice to say it's a

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Speaker 1: must listen. It is up next in the Fear and

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Speaker 1: Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot

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Speaker 1: com dot au, which is also where you sign up

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Speaker 1: for the free weekly newsletter out in a couple of hours.

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Speaker 3: Thanks very much, Adam, Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Wednesday, the fourth of September twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and join us online

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook.

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Speaker 2: I'm Michael Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have

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Speaker 2: a great day.