1 00:00:05,200 --> 00:00:07,880 Speaker 1: This is what the flux i'mb And It's Monday, the 2 00:00:07,880 --> 00:00:10,440 Speaker 1: third of November. Today Brett and Justin will be sharing 3 00:00:10,480 --> 00:00:12,840 Speaker 1: the second part of their deep dive interview with Chris Judd, 4 00:00:12,960 --> 00:00:16,159 Speaker 1: two time AFL Brownlow medallist, Premiership captain and founder of 5 00:00:16,200 --> 00:00:18,800 Speaker 1: Serity Macro Funds. But before that, here are the top 6 00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:21,360 Speaker 1: three business news stories from Australia and around the world. 7 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:24,120 Speaker 1: ANZ has warned of an upcoming one point one billion 8 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:26,840 Speaker 1: dollar profit hit. Anz's plan to lay off eight percent 9 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:29,080 Speaker 1: of its global workforce will set them back four hundred 10 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:31,720 Speaker 1: and fourteen billion dollars. Then their asse to find for 11 00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 1: incorrectly reporting bond trading data to the Treasury will cost 12 00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:37,560 Speaker 1: them two hundred and sixty four million total. In other news, 13 00:00:37,680 --> 00:00:40,040 Speaker 1: paypalers signed a deal with open Ai to become the 14 00:00:40,120 --> 00:00:43,479 Speaker 1: first payment's wallet embedded into Chat GPT. Starting next year, 15 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:46,240 Speaker 1: PayPal buyers and sellers will be able to complete transactions 16 00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:49,239 Speaker 1: through the AI tool. And finally, the government is investing 17 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:52,080 Speaker 1: seven point nine billion dollars into the medicare system to 18 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:55,640 Speaker 1: encourage more doctors to bulk field patient visits. Previously, doctors 19 00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:58,280 Speaker 1: receives a financial incentive from the government for bulk billing, 20 00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:00,960 Speaker 1: concession card holders and children underst extinct, but as of 21 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:03,840 Speaker 1: the first of November, the incentives will apply for any patient. 22 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:06,120 Speaker 1: That's it for me today, I'll pass it over to 23 00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:08,920 Speaker 1: Bretton Justin for the insightful conversation with Chris Judd. 24 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:12,240 Speaker 2: All right, time to move into the flux five questions. 25 00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 2: First one, Jadie, if you weren't running serity, what is 26 00:01:15,640 --> 00:01:18,759 Speaker 2: a job that you would secretly or not so secretly 27 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:19,640 Speaker 2: love to try. 28 00:01:20,440 --> 00:01:23,000 Speaker 3: I don't know if I could do anything else. I 29 00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:24,360 Speaker 3: genuinely so. 30 00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:26,800 Speaker 4: If I wasn't doing this, I'd be investing PA full time, 31 00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:28,319 Speaker 4: which is what I was doing before Sarity. 32 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:31,280 Speaker 3: What's a job? Maybe economists? 33 00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:32,360 Speaker 2: Based on what you just told us. 34 00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:35,720 Speaker 4: I'd like to be an economist. Yeah, I like that 35 00:01:35,760 --> 00:01:36,200 Speaker 4: side of. 36 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:38,039 Speaker 2: It, Foreign affairs edit. 37 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 4: Or something about economists, though I just don't have skinning 38 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:46,360 Speaker 4: the game. It's just an annoying some would smug, sort of. 39 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:49,840 Speaker 3: Sound clever, but so what else? 40 00:01:50,560 --> 00:01:51,240 Speaker 5: Not footy coach? 41 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 3: Not footy coach? 42 00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:58,600 Speaker 4: That'd been anyone's interest? Long pause, because I can't think 43 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:00,240 Speaker 4: of it like this is It's nice when you find 44 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:03,720 Speaker 4: something sure you've built around. I think it's I suited this. 45 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 4: Not for a second do I think I'd prefer to. 46 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:07,440 Speaker 3: Be doing something else. 47 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:10,480 Speaker 4: Small team and we have a really good time. We 48 00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:13,160 Speaker 4: bounce into work each day and you know, it doesn't 49 00:02:13,160 --> 00:02:15,560 Speaker 4: feel like work and that's not a cell. That's just 50 00:02:15,600 --> 00:02:20,320 Speaker 4: how it is. So I haven't got anything for you, unfortunately. 51 00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 5: And jaddi's there a leader that you've had in the past, 52 00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:27,600 Speaker 5: whether personally or professionally, and they've really inspired you. And 53 00:02:27,600 --> 00:02:29,520 Speaker 5: it could be in football, could be in work or 54 00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:30,440 Speaker 5: professional sense. 55 00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 4: There's lots, is the answer, and both good and bad. 56 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:39,000 Speaker 4: Like I don't use positive role models very much for 57 00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:43,240 Speaker 4: someone whose life ten to fifteen years further along in 58 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:45,040 Speaker 4: life and go that's what I want to be, because 59 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 4: it can be a bit restrictive on where you meant 60 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 4: to go. I use negative role modeling for that a lot. 61 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:52,400 Speaker 4: Like I'm happy to say I don't want to be 62 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:54,480 Speaker 4: there in fifteen years, so I get. 63 00:02:54,360 --> 00:02:57,600 Speaker 3: Some utility out of that. Yeah, I don't know about There. 64 00:02:57,440 --> 00:03:01,079 Speaker 4: Certainly investors who I just love listening to and derive 65 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:04,320 Speaker 4: a lot of inspiration of it. Anyone who calls themselves 66 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:07,639 Speaker 4: a macro investor, and even the real macro investors meant 67 00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:11,239 Speaker 4: to invest explicitly in bonds and currencies and stuff, and 68 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:13,640 Speaker 4: we people that really kill me calling myself a macro investor. 69 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 4: But drug and Miller is just the king extent on 70 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:19,160 Speaker 4: the Drugamella. Like, we just love reading any of his 71 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:21,959 Speaker 4: stuff or listening to any of his recent stuff. He 72 00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 4: doesn't talk a lot. But guys, I can't pull you 73 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:27,280 Speaker 4: to Jones. They're just they're really cool to cool to 74 00:03:27,280 --> 00:03:30,480 Speaker 4: listen to. There's not a big macro type environment in Australia. 75 00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:33,839 Speaker 4: It's a very much a bottom up environment. So yeah, 76 00:03:33,880 --> 00:03:36,800 Speaker 4: a lot of those overseas macro guys are sort of 77 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:39,880 Speaker 4: investors who I really like listening to and following and 78 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:42,040 Speaker 4: love people that can make calls that are potentially going 79 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:45,440 Speaker 4: to embarrass them. You know, I hate sitting around a 80 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 4: table some like to invest in and I throw up 81 00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:50,520 Speaker 4: the idea and everyone agrees it's not a good outcome. 82 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:53,119 Speaker 4: You know, I love it when you're sitting around the table. 83 00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:56,240 Speaker 3: With five people with foget. That's the stupidest because if 84 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:58,400 Speaker 3: you're right, they're all buying it. You push up the price. 85 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:01,680 Speaker 4: So I like, it's harder to do that. You'd be 86 00:04:01,680 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 4: harder to do that if you were a drugon Miller 87 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 4: or one of those huge names, because everyone's so keen 88 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:07,480 Speaker 4: to try and to you down. But I like people 89 00:04:07,520 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 4: that even have had huge success, that are still able 90 00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:11,920 Speaker 4: to make calls that would leave them embarrassed if they 91 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 4: didn't work out. 92 00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:16,039 Speaker 2: It's funny. Your philosophy of thinking of the negative actually 93 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:17,839 Speaker 2: reminds me a lot of Charlie Munger. He used to 94 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:19,960 Speaker 2: always say a lot, how can I not stuffed up 95 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:22,320 Speaker 2: this investment? Or would inverse a lot of his thinkings. 96 00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:25,240 Speaker 2: So surprised didn't mentioned him always invert. Yeah, want to 97 00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:28,560 Speaker 2: exactly is there a failure or a setback that you 98 00:04:28,640 --> 00:04:31,840 Speaker 2: now look back on as somewhat of turning point for 99 00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:34,200 Speaker 2: you or influential in your life or profession. 100 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:41,839 Speaker 4: Everyone wants the vulnerability to open up. I'm sure there is, 101 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 4: I said himnoxis if I don't have. 102 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:48,520 Speaker 2: Something ready to go, clearly doing your need didn't really 103 00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:50,120 Speaker 2: matter to you. 104 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:52,120 Speaker 4: We're doing when there was a blessings my moment to 105 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:54,960 Speaker 4: stop playing football. Look at Yeah, there's a lot of 106 00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:57,960 Speaker 4: injuries when you play, and you know, sports a failure game. 107 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:01,800 Speaker 4: There is one team that succeeds each year, you know 108 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:08,040 Speaker 4: the other seventeen have failed, some worse than others. So yeah, 109 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:11,479 Speaker 4: I think I think what you can learn from sport 110 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:15,719 Speaker 4: is people make the mistake of extrapolating something that's temporary 111 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:20,039 Speaker 4: into something that's permanent. So any example would be, you know, 112 00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:23,760 Speaker 4: we played Richmond. My favorite Carlton moment was the elimination 113 00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:25,400 Speaker 4: final in thirteen against Richmond. 114 00:05:25,960 --> 00:05:26,360 Speaker 5: Kicked four. 115 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 4: Nick Dagan kicked four in his second last game ever 116 00:05:28,960 --> 00:05:32,080 Speaker 4: for the Blue. That was a great day, great day. 117 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:36,360 Speaker 4: Richmond should have won. They were six goals up at halftime. 118 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:39,599 Speaker 4: I reckon and at the end of that game, you know, 119 00:05:40,080 --> 00:05:42,719 Speaker 4: I in the football world thought Richmond were really flighty, 120 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:43,919 Speaker 4: do you know what I mean? Like they should have 121 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 4: had a better team. I think they've been the finals, 122 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 4: the third in a Rahan been bundled out. 123 00:05:48,960 --> 00:05:50,040 Speaker 3: First week of finals. 124 00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:52,280 Speaker 4: You know, it was just but if you fast forward, 125 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:55,120 Speaker 4: I don't know, eight years, they couldn't have been further 126 00:05:55,440 --> 00:05:58,440 Speaker 4: from that. They were just rock hard mentally, just one 127 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:01,080 Speaker 4: of the great teams. You know, in lots of ways, 128 00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 4: I think of those dynasty teams, they're almost the most 129 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:06,240 Speaker 4: impressive because they had some wonderful players. I don't know 130 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:08,280 Speaker 4: if they were as jam packed with stars as some 131 00:06:08,320 --> 00:06:10,920 Speaker 4: of the great team and it can argue over it all, 132 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:13,760 Speaker 4: but they couldn't be more bulletproof, and how much you know, 133 00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:16,680 Speaker 4: me and the entire football world admired them, and it 134 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:19,600 Speaker 4: was just a lesson. Would have been so easily for 135 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:23,320 Speaker 4: everyone to extrapolate because they'd been so flighty for the 136 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:25,760 Speaker 4: last extended period of time they would be forever. 137 00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:26,839 Speaker 3: But it just wasn't true. 138 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:29,400 Speaker 4: And you say that with investing, it's important to work 139 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:32,000 Speaker 4: out when something is a one off and when something 140 00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:35,320 Speaker 4: is sort of systemic. And often when there is something 141 00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:37,760 Speaker 4: that's one off, a lot of investors will extrapolate that 142 00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:40,719 Speaker 4: it's permanent, and that can be that can be to 143 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:41,320 Speaker 4: their detriment. 144 00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 2: So flighty basically mentally weak, is what I'm hearing. 145 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:46,920 Speaker 4: Yeah, well they were, and you know I was part 146 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:49,039 Speaker 4: of the teams that were too, but they certainly weren't. 147 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 3: Eight years later, they're incredible. 148 00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 5: Juddy. Do you have like a daily ritual habit that 149 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:55,240 Speaker 5: you do that sets you up for the day or 150 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:56,320 Speaker 5: every day is a bit different. 151 00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:59,040 Speaker 3: I get up really early and exercise. What are we 152 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:00,840 Speaker 3: talking at five o'clock? 153 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:02,840 Speaker 4: Now, it's getting up early. And if I wake up 154 00:07:02,880 --> 00:07:03,839 Speaker 4: after four I'm not going. 155 00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:04,760 Speaker 3: Back to sleep again. 156 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:07,920 Speaker 4: Sometimes bed time, well I'm at four, it's early, but 157 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:11,760 Speaker 4: it's about ten o'clock okay, Yeah, so yeah, I get 158 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:13,640 Speaker 4: up early in exercise, and then I just ingest as 159 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:17,840 Speaker 4: much overseas finance content as I can as rapidly as possible, 160 00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:20,680 Speaker 4: so through podcasts and things like that. That sort of 161 00:07:20,680 --> 00:07:24,840 Speaker 4: been the routine for the last ten years. So I 162 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:29,000 Speaker 4: consciously try and read or consume content that I don't 163 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:32,400 Speaker 4: think austraining fund managers will be because I want a 164 00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:36,480 Speaker 4: different perspective on markets, because I want different outcomes. I 165 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 4: don't read the fin Review. I don't read local papers. 166 00:07:39,680 --> 00:07:41,480 Speaker 5: Really never all started with the fin Review? 167 00:07:41,560 --> 00:07:43,720 Speaker 3: Did it? Did? Did? I used to read it every 168 00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 3: day for ages. 169 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:48,680 Speaker 4: So yeah, generally overseas content, and then there's some good 170 00:07:48,680 --> 00:07:52,040 Speaker 4: analysts who write daily updates that I always read. It 171 00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:54,040 Speaker 4: feels like it gets you on top of what's coming 172 00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:55,600 Speaker 4: for the day. So that's sort of the routine. 173 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:58,560 Speaker 2: Last song from us Juddy, what is the best investment 174 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:00,679 Speaker 2: you've ever made? And it doesn't have to be money. 175 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:03,680 Speaker 2: It could be your precious time or your energy. 176 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:06,640 Speaker 4: Well, look, I think it's it's I mean, it's your 177 00:08:06,640 --> 00:08:09,840 Speaker 4: health and your relationships. Clearly, you know, if you're unhealthy, 178 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:11,360 Speaker 4: none of it matters. And you swap all the money 179 00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:14,120 Speaker 4: in the world to be healthy and get an extra 180 00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:17,040 Speaker 4: period of time, and it's about to end. And likewise, 181 00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 4: you know, particularly if you pick a partner that you're 182 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:21,480 Speaker 4: not suited to like, that's just a disaster. 183 00:08:21,680 --> 00:08:24,120 Speaker 3: So that'd be the two most important investments. 184 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:26,720 Speaker 2: I would have made for strong answer, and we've asked 185 00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 2: that one to quite a lot of people's strong answer 186 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:29,280 Speaker 2: that way. 187 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:31,760 Speaker 5: Finally, just before we finish, because we've got a couple 188 00:08:31,760 --> 00:08:34,400 Speaker 5: on ouns, no financial advice, but is there any businesses 189 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:36,480 Speaker 5: you're looking at the moment either you may have invested in, 190 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:38,240 Speaker 5: but that really really exciting you right now? 191 00:08:39,320 --> 00:08:41,080 Speaker 3: Pumps the most liquid smallst thcene. 192 00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:48,520 Speaker 4: No, I mean I've got I've got some, but I 193 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 4: don't love giving single stock tips. But I mean the 194 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 4: themes we really think are exciting. I've largely touched on. 195 00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:56,920 Speaker 4: Like I don't think robotics has had its AI moment. 196 00:08:57,160 --> 00:09:01,040 Speaker 4: I think in an era of open, open source world, 197 00:09:01,080 --> 00:09:03,600 Speaker 4: I don't think software has got the economic mote that 198 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:08,120 Speaker 4: it used to. And I think having a hardware component 199 00:09:08,280 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 4: is going to be more important because manufacturing things is challenging. 200 00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:13,839 Speaker 4: So I think robotics is really interesting. It's hard to 201 00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:17,240 Speaker 4: play in Australia. It's sort of some additive manufacturing companies here. 202 00:09:17,440 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 4: Some of them look interesting, some of them just look 203 00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:21,240 Speaker 4: wildly over price to me. Things that are going to 204 00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:23,600 Speaker 4: improve the electrical grid I think are really interesting and 205 00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:25,520 Speaker 4: I don't think they've had their moment where they're in 206 00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 4: the spotlight yet not properly. I think they will soon. 207 00:09:29,760 --> 00:09:33,199 Speaker 4: I don't think the gold runs over, and I think 208 00:09:33,280 --> 00:09:33,920 Speaker 4: it would pay. 209 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:34,480 Speaker 3: You know. 210 00:09:34,720 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 4: I guess maybe interesting is that everyone's so eager to 211 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:41,680 Speaker 4: call a bubble a bubble in AI, bubble, in gold, 212 00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 4: bubble here, any financial commentator wants to call a bubble, 213 00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:47,040 Speaker 4: so that when there's the invariable correction, I say, look, 214 00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:48,840 Speaker 4: I got it. You know it might have been thirty 215 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:54,640 Speaker 4: percent life. But what I think where the enormous bubble 216 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:57,880 Speaker 4: has been has been in government debt. And it was 217 00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:00,520 Speaker 4: only a few years ago you had eighteen trillion with 218 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:03,839 Speaker 4: negative yearning debt. And that's what I think is unwinding. 219 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 4: And whilst you're seeing the uptick in prices in a 220 00:10:08,120 --> 00:10:10,720 Speaker 4: lot of things, I think the unwinding of the bubble 221 00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:14,320 Speaker 4: is happening now in government debt and to an extent, 222 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:17,760 Speaker 4: fiat currencies. And that bubble was enormous and I think it's. 223 00:10:17,679 --> 00:10:19,280 Speaker 3: Got a long way to unwind. 224 00:10:19,559 --> 00:10:21,440 Speaker 4: And the outcome of that bubble is you'll see much 225 00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 4: higher prices than things that are scarce because FA. 226 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:25,160 Speaker 3: Currency is not. 227 00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:28,040 Speaker 5: Yeah, Jennie, thanks for joining us on what the flux 228 00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:30,319 Speaker 5: in conversation and we'll check it in five years time 229 00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:30,680 Speaker 5: and see. 230 00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:33,199 Speaker 3: Thank you, Jans appreciate it's good fun. 231 00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:33,720 Speaker 2: Thanks Joy