WEBVTT - Paul Murray Live | 27 March 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:06.760 From the Skying Center. This is Paul Murray live, Hollo, 0:00:06.880 --> 0:00:08.720 my friend. Game on. 0:00:09.600 --> 0:00:11.159 Half of the country thinks we are headed in the 0:00:11.200 --> 0:00:13.200 wrong direction. More than half of the country thinks the 0:00:13.240 --> 0:00:16.160 Prime Minister is not doing a good job. Those were 0:00:16.160 --> 0:00:19.680 the conditions in which Peter Dutton started the election battle. 0:00:19.720 --> 0:00:22.360 It'll be called tomorrow. We'll talk about it tonight, about 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:24.080 the number of seats, the where, the what and the how, 0:00:24.160 --> 0:00:25.840 But if the five things you need to know about 0:00:25.840 --> 0:00:27.920 what I thought was a pretty impressive speech from a 0:00:27.920 --> 0:00:30.520 man who in just a few weeks time may well 0:00:30.600 --> 0:00:33.239 end up the prime minister of this country, certainly an 0:00:33.240 --> 0:00:36.400 alternative to the current who. As I say, the polls 0:00:36.400 --> 0:00:39.279 say more than half of the country is dissatisfied with 0:00:39.520 --> 0:00:41.880 the five things you need to know about the speech 0:00:41.920 --> 0:00:44.280 and about why I think that it starts the election 0:00:44.440 --> 0:00:48.160 campaign in the best way possible for the opposition. This 0:00:48.240 --> 0:00:52.159 is a conversation about help that is needed now, not 0:00:52.320 --> 0:00:57.480 help in a year fifteen months time. As you know, 0:00:57.640 --> 0:01:01.640 we have remained laser focused and almost obsessed with cost 0:01:01.640 --> 0:01:04.440 of living because of the effects that it has had 0:01:04.520 --> 0:01:08.759 on everyday Australians. I remember the story of a woman 0:01:09.200 --> 0:01:11.400 who was living in a car in Perth. She had 0:01:11.400 --> 0:01:14.199 a job, she has kids. They live in the car. 0:01:14.959 --> 0:01:16.759 The way that they could make sure that they had 0:01:16.840 --> 0:01:18.679 drinking water at the end of each and every day 0:01:19.080 --> 0:01:21.039 was to go and go and buy a bag of 0:01:21.080 --> 0:01:23.479 ice that would then melt throughout the day and that's 0:01:23.480 --> 0:01:27.039 what they would drink. There are too many Australians who 0:01:27.080 --> 0:01:29.919 are suffering and have suffered for a long time, people 0:01:29.920 --> 0:01:33.360 who are largely forgotten by most of the media, but 0:01:33.400 --> 0:01:36.840 thankfully not by Peter Dutton in the very way he 0:01:36.959 --> 0:01:41.200 framed what he plans to do with his Prime ministership. 0:01:41.600 --> 0:01:43.880 But to get there, he tells the story that we 0:01:44.040 --> 0:01:48.200 have told nightly and you have lived every day of 0:01:48.240 --> 0:01:49.560 the past three years. 0:01:50.960 --> 0:01:53.280 Your bills tell the true story of Labour's cost of 0:01:53.320 --> 0:01:57.120 living crisis. And here's the facts of the Albanesi government's 0:01:57.200 --> 0:02:01.680 economic record. Rents are up by at percent, housing is 0:02:01.760 --> 0:02:05.520 up by fourteen percent, groceries up by staggering thirty percent, 0:02:06.360 --> 0:02:10.800 Electricity is up by thirty two percent, and insurance is 0:02:10.880 --> 0:02:14.079 up for many households and businesses by thirty five percent. 0:02:14.919 --> 0:02:17.600 He brought to the National Conversation here's moment to be 0:02:17.680 --> 0:02:22.880 heard uninterrupted for thirty minutes across the airwaves of Australia, 0:02:23.200 --> 0:02:28.520 the stories of those that are ohso forgotten by too many. 0:02:29.040 --> 0:02:32.040 In Perth, a mum in a grocery store in tears 0:02:32.639 --> 0:02:36.760 told me how her her husband and children couldn't keep 0:02:36.800 --> 0:02:40.560 their heads above water with the bills stacking up. In Adelaide, 0:02:40.600 --> 0:02:43.880 I spoke with a food manufacturer whose electricity prices had 0:02:43.919 --> 0:02:47.680 gone up by about three hundred percent. In Victoria, I 0:02:47.680 --> 0:02:51.360 spoke with a supermarketing employee, a woman in her sixties 0:02:51.919 --> 0:02:54.520 who had a machete held against her throat during a robbery. 0:02:55.240 --> 0:02:57.880 In Brisbane, I listened to a young couple in their 0:02:57.880 --> 0:03:01.560 thirties who have moved back in with their parents because 0:03:01.560 --> 0:03:04.360 they simply can't buy a home even though both of 0:03:04.360 --> 0:03:07.360 them are working. Over time, for so many Australians, aspiration 0:03:07.520 --> 0:03:12.600 has turned to anxiety, optimism to pessimism, a national confidence 0:03:12.639 --> 0:03:18.079 to national uncertainty. The truth is Australians can't afford three 0:03:18.120 --> 0:03:19.760 more years of the Albanesi government. 0:03:22.320 --> 0:03:24.280 Too much of our politics is about what's in it 0:03:24.320 --> 0:03:28.600 for me. But as opposed to five dollars in fifteen 0:03:28.600 --> 0:03:33.360 months time, harving of petrol tax in this country again 0:03:33.480 --> 0:03:36.200 something we've spoken about for such a long time, something 0:03:36.520 --> 0:03:40.200 that the Prime Minister has ignored at the height of. 0:03:40.200 --> 0:03:42.040 The difficulties of the past three years. 0:03:42.440 --> 0:03:46.840 Well, Peter Dunton now has turned every single petrol station 0:03:47.600 --> 0:03:50.720 and its price board into a billboard for his case 0:03:50.800 --> 0:03:55.480 for change, because upon his election the fuel tax will 0:03:55.520 --> 0:03:56.600 be halved. 0:03:57.800 --> 0:04:01.240 A coalition government will have the fuel excise for twelve 0:04:01.280 --> 0:04:04.440 months and then we'll review it and we'll make sure 0:04:04.480 --> 0:04:06.840 that that comes in on the first day that our 0:04:06.880 --> 0:04:10.680 Parliament sits. For a household with one car filling up 0:04:10.680 --> 0:04:13.560 once a week, that's a savings of about fourteen dollars 0:04:13.600 --> 0:04:16.360 a week, or around seven hundred dollars over the year. 0:04:16.720 --> 0:04:19.760 For a household with two cars filling up once a week, 0:04:19.800 --> 0:04:22.040 that is a savings of twenty eight dollars a week 0:04:22.560 --> 0:04:25.120 or around fifteen hundred dollars over twelve months. 0:04:25.560 --> 0:04:27.599 And this will not make the front pages. It will 0:04:27.640 --> 0:04:30.839 be barely mentioned anywhere but here. But as you know, 0:04:31.560 --> 0:04:34.960 part of the litany of failures of this government, the 0:04:34.960 --> 0:04:38.200 promise to make things better is the three point seven 0:04:38.240 --> 0:04:41.800 million Australian households. There's multiple people in those households, so 0:04:41.800 --> 0:04:44.080 it's more than that number don't know where their food's 0:04:44.120 --> 0:04:46.559 going to come from. Each and every week, they run 0:04:46.600 --> 0:04:50.360 out of food by a Thursday night. They're worried about 0:04:50.360 --> 0:04:54.359 what they're going to give their kids for lunch, if anything, tomorrow. 0:04:54.760 --> 0:04:59.240 The federal government spends hundreds of billions of dollars at 0:04:59.279 --> 0:05:02.440 a time when charities are serving people around the block 0:05:02.480 --> 0:05:06.400 when it comes to food. Finally, a leader who recognizes 0:05:07.080 --> 0:05:10.120 that the help that is needed now is to give 0:05:10.200 --> 0:05:16.240 extra money to the charities who are doing that help now, to. 0:05:16.240 --> 0:05:19.320 Scale up assistance and provide immediate relief. We will commit 0:05:19.760 --> 0:05:23.560 fifty million dollars for food charities like food banks, second 0:05:23.560 --> 0:05:27.320 by Ite and oz Harvest to expand their services and 0:05:27.360 --> 0:05:29.360 to include school breakfast programs. 0:05:30.160 --> 0:05:32.320 The five things you need to know about the Dutton 0:05:32.400 --> 0:05:36.520 speech delivered with passion and force tonight. A man who 0:05:36.640 --> 0:05:39.479 wants to take the country back in the right direction. 0:05:40.480 --> 0:05:45.320 Immediate help upon his election. The second a real plan 0:05:45.440 --> 0:05:48.560 for the future, not just bribes to get through an election. 0:05:50.279 --> 0:05:53.120 One of the key things that was announced today and 0:05:53.160 --> 0:05:55.120 will be repeated all the way through the election is 0:05:55.160 --> 0:05:57.640 it's one thing to make a vague promise, It's another 0:05:57.720 --> 0:06:00.120 thing to hold up a piece of paper that you 0:06:00.120 --> 0:06:02.920 will pass through the Parliament and make the law of 0:06:02.960 --> 0:06:03.599 the land. 0:06:05.200 --> 0:06:08.880 Tonight, I commit a coalition government to the following. We 0:06:08.920 --> 0:06:13.000 will introduce four critical pieces of legislation on the first 0:06:13.040 --> 0:06:16.440 sitting day in the next Parliament. One the Energy Price 0:06:16.520 --> 0:06:20.440 Reduction Bill, to the Lower Immigration and More Homes for 0:06:20.440 --> 0:06:24.839 Australian's Bill, the Keep Australian Safe Bill, and the Guaranteed 0:06:24.880 --> 0:06:29.040 Funding for Health, Education and Essential Services Bill. Part of 0:06:29.080 --> 0:06:31.960 all of these plans is to make sure that more 0:06:32.000 --> 0:06:34.840 gas is going to be put into the system, and 0:06:34.880 --> 0:06:37.719 the gas that is produced by the system currently will 0:06:37.760 --> 0:06:41.480 now start to be put aside a national reservation of gas, 0:06:41.920 --> 0:06:45.200 meaning that we will not be affected by what happens 0:06:45.240 --> 0:06:47.360 around the world. We will be able to set our 0:06:47.400 --> 0:06:51.479 own price on the technology that will get us through 0:06:51.520 --> 0:06:56.920 the next decades. This plan will prioritize domestic gas supply, 0:06:57.480 --> 0:07:02.400 address shortfalls and reduce energy for Australians. This is all 0:07:02.440 --> 0:07:07.640 about ensuring Australian gas is for Australians. We will immediately 0:07:07.640 --> 0:07:11.280 introduce an East Coast gas reservation. This will secure an 0:07:11.320 --> 0:07:15.120 additional ten to twenty percent of these coast demand gas 0:07:15.120 --> 0:07:19.040 which would otherwise be exported for use in other markets 0:07:19.040 --> 0:07:21.040 by consumers in those countries. 0:07:22.160 --> 0:07:27.200 And despite what it will be said, Australians are very 0:07:27.240 --> 0:07:29.720 accepting and we don't care from where you come as 0:07:29.720 --> 0:07:32.320 long as you recognize the laws of this land as 0:07:32.320 --> 0:07:36.160 opposed to the grievances of previous lands. But the reality 0:07:36.320 --> 0:07:38.400 is that with more than a million people that have 0:07:38.520 --> 0:07:41.320 come in under this government, that's an extra million people 0:07:41.800 --> 0:07:45.240 who have caused further delays in you being able to 0:07:45.280 --> 0:07:48.520 find our rental property, more people competing when it comes 0:07:48.560 --> 0:07:52.160 to an auction, more difficulties when it comes to ambulance 0:07:52.240 --> 0:07:56.600 ramping or immigration will be cut by twenty five percent. 0:07:58.200 --> 0:08:01.320 We will cut the permanent migration by twenty five percent. 0:08:01.880 --> 0:08:05.360 We will ban foreign investors in temporary residents from purchasing 0:08:05.480 --> 0:08:07.160 existing Australian homes. 0:08:07.120 --> 0:08:08.600 For a period of two years. 0:08:09.000 --> 0:08:11.720 We will set stricter caps on foreign students to relieve 0:08:11.760 --> 0:08:15.640 stress on rental markets. And we will invest five billion 0:08:15.680 --> 0:08:20.280 dollars in essential infrastructure to get stalled housing projects up 0:08:20.320 --> 0:08:24.040 and going, and it's going to create five hundred thousand 0:08:24.160 --> 0:08:28.120 new homes. Will allow for first home buyers to access 0:08:28.200 --> 0:08:30.800 up to fifty thousand dollars of their super for home 0:08:30.800 --> 0:08:33.560 deposit because it's better to get into home sooner. 0:08:34.600 --> 0:08:36.480 Number three in the five things that you need to 0:08:36.520 --> 0:08:38.600 know about the speech, and I employ you to go 0:08:38.760 --> 0:08:40.760 and watch it all in full at skynews dot com 0:08:40.800 --> 0:08:45.040 dot au. He has raised the stakes of the election. Remember, 0:08:45.280 --> 0:08:47.040 more than half of the country says we're headed in 0:08:47.080 --> 0:08:49.520 the wrong direction. More than half of the country is 0:08:49.559 --> 0:08:51.760 dissatisfied with the Prime minister's leadership. 0:08:52.280 --> 0:08:53.719 Here he was putting. 0:08:53.520 --> 0:08:57.400 It on the table about how important your vote is 0:08:58.160 --> 0:09:02.240 in just a few weeks time. Now, every election is important, 0:09:02.840 --> 0:09:06.599 but this election does matter more than others in recent history. 0:09:06.840 --> 0:09:10.200 It is a sliding doors moment for our nation. A 0:09:10.240 --> 0:09:13.400 return to Albaneza government in any form won't just be 0:09:13.480 --> 0:09:17.480 another three bleak years. More economic mistakes will take a 0:09:17.480 --> 0:09:21.000 lot longer to recover from. Setbacks will be set in stone, 0:09:21.000 --> 0:09:23.720 and our prosperity will be damaged. 0:09:23.280 --> 0:09:27.240 For decades to come. But you have the power to 0:09:27.360 --> 0:09:30.680 change the path our country is on. You have the 0:09:30.720 --> 0:09:34.640 ability to reverse decline, and you have the opportunity to 0:09:34.640 --> 0:09:36.560 get our country back on track. 0:09:37.600 --> 0:09:40.920 As part of that, he also Front and Senate. Now, 0:09:40.960 --> 0:09:44.080 remember this election in terms of the six PM News 0:09:44.240 --> 0:09:47.000 is decided by the people who cover it. We have 0:09:47.120 --> 0:09:49.720 shown you how they will spin the ball and give 0:09:49.800 --> 0:09:52.480 the benefit of the doubt to the existing government for 0:09:52.520 --> 0:09:55.199 a whole collection of reasons, but most notably because they 0:09:55.400 --> 0:10:00.040 like that side being in power. It's time in a 0:10:00.080 --> 0:10:02.960 speech like this, with hundreds of thousands of people watching 0:10:03.040 --> 0:10:05.320 live and many more than will watch it online in 0:10:05.360 --> 0:10:09.000 the coming days, to batter away the BS to take 0:10:09.040 --> 0:10:12.480 on what will inevitably be Labour's campaign of lies. 0:10:14.720 --> 0:10:18.680 For three years, Labor pedaled the lie that they inherited 0:10:18.679 --> 0:10:21.720 a trillion dollars of debt. Yet in the budget papers 0:10:21.720 --> 0:10:25.480 that we saw on Tuesday night they confirm that the 0:10:25.559 --> 0:10:28.800 Labor Party will burden Australia with the trillion dollars of 0:10:28.800 --> 0:10:33.640 debt as of next year. Tuesday's budget was one for 0:10:33.679 --> 0:10:36.280 the next five weeks, not one for the next five years. 0:10:36.920 --> 0:10:39.440 And if anyone between now an election day wants to 0:10:39.480 --> 0:10:43.160 tell you that the alternative Prime Minister his alternative team 0:10:43.440 --> 0:10:48.120 will do anything but help healthcare in this country, show 0:10:48.160 --> 0:10:48.600 them this. 0:10:49.880 --> 0:10:52.559 When a government doesn't have any achievements to speak about, 0:10:53.240 --> 0:10:56.120 which is the reality for this government, it resorts to 0:10:56.160 --> 0:11:01.960 smears and scare campaigns there's no greater sign of the 0:11:01.960 --> 0:11:07.040 Albernezy Gubert's desperation that it's Many Scare campaign, Labour's third 0:11:07.080 --> 0:11:10.240 attempt in less than a decade where there's the biggest 0:11:10.240 --> 0:11:15.240 strain on services. We will guarantee cheaper medicines and lower 0:11:15.240 --> 0:11:18.720 the pharmaceutical benefit scheme co payment to twenty five dollars, 0:11:19.160 --> 0:11:22.439 and will invest five hundred million dollars into women's health. 0:11:22.920 --> 0:11:26.280 And we'll double the subsidized middle health sessions from ten 0:11:26.360 --> 0:11:30.680 to twenty and make this arrangement and make this arrangement permanent. 0:11:31.360 --> 0:11:33.880 That's really important because we know the kids aren't all right. 0:11:33.960 --> 0:11:35.680 We know that there are plenty of people struggling no 0:11:35.720 --> 0:11:37.600 matter where you live, from the biggest of cities to 0:11:37.640 --> 0:11:40.440 the most remote parts of this beautiful country. That is 0:11:40.480 --> 0:11:43.319 a really big announcement. Nine and a half billion dollars 0:11:44.000 --> 0:11:47.360 when it comes to dealing with health, particular focuses on 0:11:47.440 --> 0:11:50.680 mental health, particular focus in that on youth mental health. 0:11:51.200 --> 0:11:55.800 The fourth he's backing in small business. Now, small business 0:11:57.160 --> 0:12:00.960 employs so many people. All business is a way that 0:12:01.040 --> 0:12:04.560 people are able to fend for themselves. Much of the 0:12:04.559 --> 0:12:07.800 project of the modern labor left, which is now the 0:12:07.840 --> 0:12:11.120 modern labor party is to create a triangle of dependence. 0:12:11.480 --> 0:12:16.320 The triangle of dependence where you're reliant on the state 0:12:16.520 --> 0:12:19.320 for the handout, your reliant on the state because you 0:12:19.440 --> 0:12:21.440 work for it, or if you're in business, the biggest 0:12:21.440 --> 0:12:22.920 client is the state. 0:12:23.000 --> 0:12:24.520 Therefore you never rock the boat. 0:12:25.120 --> 0:12:27.480 This is how labor has stayed in power, and Victoria 0:12:27.520 --> 0:12:29.520 for the best part of thirty years has had a 0:12:29.559 --> 0:12:34.240 similar hold until recently in places like Queensland. But if 0:12:34.240 --> 0:12:37.680 you decide to start your own business, no matter what 0:12:37.760 --> 0:12:39.719 happens to be, you know the only way to get 0:12:39.720 --> 0:12:42.280 a pay rise is to get up earlier and go 0:12:42.360 --> 0:12:47.040 to bed later. And your taxation is something that should 0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:50.760 be as minimized as possible. So the incident asset right 0:12:50.800 --> 0:12:54.720 off that this government has completely removed will be back 0:12:54.760 --> 0:12:57.679 in a big way, meaning that if you are running 0:12:57.679 --> 0:13:03.720 anything from a hairdressers to a local lawn care business, 0:13:04.040 --> 0:13:06.120 you'll be able to buy things for your business and 0:13:06.160 --> 0:13:12.120 write it off against tax. Reviving growth, mister Speaker also 0:13:12.240 --> 0:13:16.240 means having the back of small business, including tax relief. 0:13:16.920 --> 0:13:20.120 We've got tax relief coming for small business. We will 0:13:20.120 --> 0:13:24.000 increase the instant asset right off from one thousand dollars 0:13:24.080 --> 0:13:28.080 under this government to thirty thousand dollars, and we're going 0:13:28.160 --> 0:13:31.800 to make that arrangement ongoing. We will provide a deduction 0:13:31.880 --> 0:13:34.760 of up to twenty thousand dollars per year for small 0:13:34.800 --> 0:13:39.040 businesses for business related meal expenses, which is also a 0:13:39.120 --> 0:13:43.000 much needed shot in the arm for struggling cafes, restaurants 0:13:43.040 --> 0:13:45.960 and pubs. It will allow a local real estate agency 0:13:46.360 --> 0:13:48.720 or a builder to take staff to a local cafe 0:13:49.120 --> 0:13:51.960 to celebrate a big sales event or simply to say 0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:55.800 thank you to their hardworking employees. It creates jobs and 0:13:55.840 --> 0:14:00.480 it supports the struggling hospitality sector. I want small businesses 0:14:01.040 --> 0:14:04.720 to be taking risks, calculated risks, not shutting up shop. 0:14:05.559 --> 0:14:08.440 And for so many Australians, it's not about how much money. 0:14:08.520 --> 0:14:10.560 It's not about what's in it. For me, it's not 0:14:10.640 --> 0:14:15.200 about the bribes, the giveaways or the distractions. Which brings 0:14:15.240 --> 0:14:18.600 me to the fifth thing to know about Peter Dutton's speech, 0:14:20.440 --> 0:14:23.840 and that is that he defended values and he has 0:14:23.880 --> 0:14:24.440 set a. 0:14:24.400 --> 0:14:27.440 Path to pride for our future generations. 0:14:28.640 --> 0:14:32.920 We will nurture pride and unity in our country. We 0:14:32.960 --> 0:14:36.200 will provide support to the Australian Defense Force to keep 0:14:36.240 --> 0:14:40.600 us safe today and into generations ahead, at a time when. 0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:41.160 We most need it. 0:14:42.120 --> 0:14:45.920 That starts, of course, by making sure that we don't 0:14:45.960 --> 0:14:49.280 fail young Australians, and I think this is an incredibly 0:14:49.320 --> 0:14:53.480 important point. A coalition government will restore a curriculum that 0:14:53.600 --> 0:14:57.440 teaches the core fundamentals in our classrooms, a curriculum that 0:14:57.480 --> 0:15:01.280 cultivates critical thinking, responsible citizenship and common sense. 0:15:02.840 --> 0:15:08.800 These are the focuses of a Dutton government. That education matters, 0:15:08.880 --> 0:15:11.480 That pride in your nation matters. That making sure that 0:15:11.520 --> 0:15:15.880 a country that is focused on its future matters, and 0:15:15.920 --> 0:15:19.720 that comes from the top. This Prime Minister has a 0:15:19.720 --> 0:15:24.600 disapproval rating above fifty percent. More people are unimpressed with 0:15:24.640 --> 0:15:27.800 his leadership than impressed with his leadership. Something Peter Dutton 0:15:28.120 --> 0:15:29.760 promises to change. 0:15:30.720 --> 0:15:32.680 I will be a strong leader with a steady hand. 0:15:33.600 --> 0:15:35.720 I will make the tough decisions, not shirk them. I 0:15:35.760 --> 0:15:39.200 will put the national interest first. I will lead with conviction, 0:15:39.320 --> 0:15:40.800 not walk both sides of the street. 0:15:41.640 --> 0:15:44.000 And his closing pitch, which will be heard in many 0:15:44.040 --> 0:15:46.760 ways over many days between now and when you get 0:15:46.800 --> 0:15:51.920 the chance to vote for or against the current government. 0:15:53.080 --> 0:15:55.880 This is the closing argument of a man who is 0:15:55.920 --> 0:15:57.200 ready to lead. 0:15:58.400 --> 0:16:02.440 Australians are worse off under the Albansia government and Australians 0:16:02.480 --> 0:16:05.680 cannot afford three more years of this bad labor government. 0:16:06.240 --> 0:16:09.240 I say to Australians tonight, at this election, you can 0:16:09.320 --> 0:16:12.520 make the right choice, a better choice for you, a 0:16:12.520 --> 0:16:15.520 better choice for your family, and a better choice for 0:16:15.600 --> 0:16:19.880 your country. Together, let's build a stronger, safer and better 0:16:19.920 --> 0:16:23.920 Australia and let's together get our country back on track. 0:16:25.520 --> 0:16:28.360 So game on the best place to be here each 0:16:28.400 --> 0:16:30.720 and every night and all day with us at Sky News. 0:16:30.760 --> 0:16:32.280 You know that elections bring out the best in. 0:16:32.320 --> 0:16:35.200 Us and we will have every moment of it covered, 0:16:35.520 --> 0:16:38.720 from the campaign buses, to the promises, to the media tricks, 0:16:39.160 --> 0:16:43.600 to the lies, and to the entire opportunity to put 0:16:43.600 --> 0:16:45.440 the country in the right direction. We'll be into all 0:16:45.440 --> 0:16:47.720 of that tomorrow. The Governor General will be called upon 0:16:47.960 --> 0:16:50.440 by the Prime Minister. Expectation is that happens during all 0:16:50.440 --> 0:16:52.600 of the breakfast TV shows, so as many eyes are 0:16:52.600 --> 0:16:54.880 on it as possible to try to change the subject 0:16:54.920 --> 0:16:57.520 from the speech that's just happened tonight, but also to 0:16:57.640 --> 0:16:59.760 end our long national nightmare. For goodness sake, when it 0:16:59.760 --> 0:17:02.680 is this to start. The most likely election date is 0:17:02.720 --> 0:17:06.480 going to be May the third, and again that will 0:17:06.480 --> 0:17:08.600 be announced by the Prime Minister in the next little 0:17:08.600 --> 0:17:11.920 wild that will be thirty seven days from now. Thirty 0:17:12.000 --> 0:17:16.000 seven days of this prime minister, will he make history 0:17:16.400 --> 0:17:19.840 as the first prime minister to be re elected since 0:17:19.920 --> 0:17:22.360 two thousand and four, or will be the first prime 0:17:22.359 --> 0:17:25.480 minister to get the boot in a first term by 0:17:25.520 --> 0:17:28.840 the Australian people not his party room, in over one 0:17:28.920 --> 0:17:32.240 hundred years. You need seventy six seats to form a 0:17:32.240 --> 0:17:35.320 majority in the Parliament, and the current numbers are the 0:17:35.400 --> 0:17:38.639 Labor Party has seventy seven seats, the Liberal National Party 0:17:38.680 --> 0:17:44.000 fifty three, Greens four and Independence fifteen. There's eighteen seats 0:17:44.000 --> 0:17:47.560 that need to change hands for a change of majority rule. 0:17:48.400 --> 0:17:51.200 But most expectations here. 0:17:51.160 --> 0:17:52.800 Are that the. 0:17:54.640 --> 0:17:56.600 Belief here, I should say, is that we're headed towards 0:17:56.600 --> 0:17:59.040 a minority government, and whether that is going to be 0:17:59.080 --> 0:18:01.080 minority Liberal or Labor government, of course, we will all 0:18:01.080 --> 0:18:04.000 find out together. So here's the two things that you 0:18:04.080 --> 0:18:06.080 need to know about the next little while, which is 0:18:06.520 --> 0:18:08.880 that Labor is it going to be able to lose 0:18:08.920 --> 0:18:11.399 two and still have a majority. This is different than 0:18:11.400 --> 0:18:14.800 previous elections because first term governments in recent years, like 0:18:14.840 --> 0:18:18.200 the Liberal government in twenty sixteen, they had a massive backbench. 0:18:19.160 --> 0:18:21.920 The Labor government in twenty ten had a massive backbench. 0:18:22.040 --> 0:18:25.800 He has just two the Libs, I said, sorry, eighteen before, 0:18:25.800 --> 0:18:29.720 it's twenty one seats to win a majority. The current 0:18:29.760 --> 0:18:31.840 projections are neither are going to get there and it's 0:18:31.880 --> 0:18:34.120 going to be a minority government. So let's run around 0:18:34.160 --> 0:18:36.040 the poles. Let's run around the bookies. Let's set the 0:18:36.080 --> 0:18:37.800 market and then have a chat with a dear friend 0:18:37.880 --> 0:18:40.600 about where we go from here. All right, the bookies, 0:18:40.640 --> 0:18:43.119 well they are leaning Labour's way right now. This has 0:18:43.119 --> 0:18:45.280 only changed in the past week or so, but all 0:18:45.320 --> 0:18:47.560 of them are suggesting a relatively tight race, but one 0:18:47.600 --> 0:18:50.320 currently they say Labor is going to win in terms 0:18:50.320 --> 0:18:53.080 of the polls, or they move from the Liberal Party 0:18:53.119 --> 0:18:55.480 at fifty one forty nine in news poll and the 0:18:55.520 --> 0:18:58.199 fresh Water Pole to fifty to fifty in the Yugov 0:18:58.320 --> 0:19:01.520 Pole to Labour being fifty in the red Bridge Pole 0:19:01.600 --> 0:19:03.640 and Morgan way out in front in terms of where 0:19:03.640 --> 0:19:05.719 they think the Labour Party is going to be. If 0:19:05.760 --> 0:19:08.080 that's the case, they will increase the number of seats 0:19:08.080 --> 0:19:11.240 they have in the Parliament. Now, Labour's primary vote is 0:19:11.400 --> 0:19:14.119 down according to all of the polls based off the 0:19:14.160 --> 0:19:16.080 previous election, and remember that was one of the worst 0:19:16.080 --> 0:19:19.480 performances Labour had had in one hundred years. Red Bridge 0:19:19.480 --> 0:19:22.280 says that their vote is down by one point News poll, 0:19:22.440 --> 0:19:27.520 by two points, three points for Ugov Essential, and many more. 0:19:27.320 --> 0:19:28.240 In the Resolve poll. 0:19:28.280 --> 0:19:30.280 Although that pole is more than a month old and 0:19:30.320 --> 0:19:32.520 the expectation is like all the others, that gets a 0:19:32.560 --> 0:19:35.000 little tighter in the next of a while. For Peter 0:19:35.080 --> 0:19:38.199 Dutton and the Opposition. Thirty six percent was what the 0:19:38.200 --> 0:19:40.600 coalition got when it was removed from office three years ago. 0:19:40.680 --> 0:19:43.520 Their vote is up by at least three points in 0:19:43.560 --> 0:19:46.399 the News pole, the Freshwater Pole and the Resolve Pole. 0:19:46.720 --> 0:19:48.960 It's up by just a point in the red Bridge 0:19:48.960 --> 0:19:52.440 and Ugov pole. And because Essential includes people who don't 0:19:52.440 --> 0:19:54.840 know or undecided, they have got their vote at one 0:19:54.920 --> 0:19:59.320 point less the Greens, what do they mean? Of course, 0:19:59.320 --> 0:20:01.479 you add a Green vot to the Labor vote, so 0:20:01.520 --> 0:20:04.440 you get more garbage like that. The Green's got twelve 0:20:04.480 --> 0:20:06.880 percent of the last election. According to the Freshwater Pole 0:20:07.040 --> 0:20:09.679 they are going to increase their vote, Ugov says the 0:20:09.720 --> 0:20:13.639 same news poll. Resolve, Redbridge and Essential say they have 0:20:13.800 --> 0:20:17.400 exactly the same performance that they did four years ago, 0:20:17.600 --> 0:20:21.160 which produced four members in the Lower House. I think 0:20:21.160 --> 0:20:24.040 the wildcard of the election is One Nation, because they 0:20:24.160 --> 0:20:27.000 got five percent of the last federal election. According to 0:20:27.040 --> 0:20:30.159 the Resolve poll. However, they're up four points now. You 0:20:30.200 --> 0:20:32.000 won't see this in other places because they don't like 0:20:32.040 --> 0:20:34.679 to interview people from one Nation, but One Nation is 0:20:34.760 --> 0:20:38.760 up by four points, by three points, and by two points. 0:20:38.800 --> 0:20:40.760 Depending on the polls that you have a look at, 0:20:41.320 --> 0:20:44.159 you'll hear a lot about the other vote or the 0:20:44.200 --> 0:20:47.919 independent vote. Now it's hard to pull these apart from 0:20:47.960 --> 0:20:50.359 what is the independent vote, what is the minor party vote? 0:20:50.359 --> 0:20:54.080 What is the lamby vote? But the reality here is 0:20:54.080 --> 0:20:56.520 that that vote was fourteen percent at the last election. 0:20:56.920 --> 0:20:59.480 It is down in all of the polls that are 0:20:59.520 --> 0:21:04.040 currently being put together. Another thing to remember going into 0:21:04.080 --> 0:21:08.600 any federal election, Australia is a very big and very 0:21:08.640 --> 0:21:12.119 different country. The politics of the South of Tasmania is 0:21:12.200 --> 0:21:16.000 different than regional Queensland. What people care about in suburban 0:21:16.040 --> 0:21:18.640 Perth may be different than what happens in Western Sydney. 0:21:19.280 --> 0:21:23.520 The people of the Northern Territory South Australia may have 0:21:23.560 --> 0:21:27.720 a different view than Victoria or New South Wales, but 0:21:27.760 --> 0:21:29.000 I think we can all agree with the Act. 0:21:29.119 --> 0:21:31.680 We'll end up voting Labor or Green. As for two 0:21:31.720 --> 0:21:32.320 party preferred. 0:21:32.359 --> 0:21:34.480 There has been some switches and the biggest switch is 0:21:34.520 --> 0:21:37.800 going to be in Victoria. The Liberal Party's vote is up. 0:21:38.200 --> 0:21:41.600 In New South Wales, the Labor Parti's vote is down 0:21:41.920 --> 0:21:44.760 five points. That's a whole bunch of seats. The majority 0:21:44.800 --> 0:21:46.680 of seats, if they are to change, would come out 0:21:46.720 --> 0:21:50.280 of Victoria. Watch this space about whether Jacinta Allen makes 0:21:50.280 --> 0:21:53.439 it through the campaign as the Victorian premier. In Queensland, 0:21:53.440 --> 0:21:56.520 the Liberal Party advantage has been sliced by one point 0:21:56.520 --> 0:21:59.360 but still remains fifty three to forty seven. Western Australia 0:21:59.520 --> 0:22:02.239 very strong for Labour. The Leaps thought they could win 0:22:02.280 --> 0:22:05.800 four seats, they'll probably get one. In South Australia, the 0:22:05.960 --> 0:22:08.480 Labor Party is down one point but still remains in 0:22:08.520 --> 0:22:13.640 front at fifty three forty seven. So finally, one thing 0:22:13.680 --> 0:22:15.520