WEBVTT - Paul Murray Live | 2 June

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<v Speaker 1>From the Skyinging Center.

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<v Speaker 2>This is Paul Murray Live. Hey you gang, thank you

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<v Speaker 2>for watching us this Sunday. We are surviving on water

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<v Speaker 2>and honey. But I think we are one of millions

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<v Speaker 2>doing that right now. So apologies for the voice, but

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<v Speaker 2>no change in the focus. Lots of things to talk

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<v Speaker 2>about tonight, including what you think is the bold prediction

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<v Speaker 2>for the week ahead. Will Philip Thomson will join us

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<v Speaker 2>from Campbell to talk about the latest madness out of

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<v Speaker 2>Andrew Giles and the idiocy which is now involving the

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<v Speaker 2>Prime Minister directly. Let's see how he tries to whiggle

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<v Speaker 2>his way out of this, which no doubt he will

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<v Speaker 2>do with the support of the lefty press gallery. But first,

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<v Speaker 2>what about Donald Trump? Now, if you or I had

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<v Speaker 2>got thirty four convictions held up against us, if there

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<v Speaker 2>was a chance of us going to jail, there's a

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<v Speaker 2>chance you'd probably stay at home on the first chance

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<v Speaker 2>that you got not Trump. He was offered the UFC

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<v Speaker 2>and the crowd seemed to like him.

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<v Speaker 3>Trump he is in the building in the form of

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<v Speaker 3>present any standing.

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<v Speaker 2>Ovationion so good, I've how many lifties heads are going

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<v Speaker 2>to go? Now, of course this was all following the

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<v Speaker 2>obvious news which brought Friday morning ASTRADI in.

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<v Speaker 4>Time, Donald Trump found guilty on all thirty four counts.

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<v Speaker 5>The former president Donald that Jay Trump found guilty on

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<v Speaker 5>all counts.

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<v Speaker 1>The jury found Trump guilty.

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<v Speaker 2>Former President Donald Trump has been found guilty.

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump is a convicted felam.

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<v Speaker 6>Donald Trump the first former president to be convicted in

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<v Speaker 6>a criminal trial.

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<v Speaker 2>Now the left, well, I was slotting off their chairs

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<v Speaker 2>with excitement about all of this, because finally they had

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<v Speaker 2>got their man. He is now a convicted felon, and

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<v Speaker 2>a big asterisk nice exists over the twenty sixteen election.

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<v Speaker 7>Well, my reaction was, I was at Costco buying you

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<v Speaker 7>ten boxes of cured coffee, and my watch started to

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<v Speaker 7>buzz and I got so excited I started leaking all bit.

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<v Speaker 8>Do you say you want peace, you say you'll never

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<v Speaker 8>get peace along as Donald Trump is here.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I don't believe I ever will.

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<v Speaker 9>It's an unbelievable story. A guy that was made by

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<v Speaker 9>New York was just in some ways, you could argue

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<v Speaker 9>broken by New York.

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<v Speaker 4>The test for US now as a country is whether

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<v Speaker 4>or not this former president and his allies will have

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<v Speaker 4>succeeded in trying to undermine the rule of law so

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<v Speaker 4>that people reject this as a legitimate function of the

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<v Speaker 4>rule of law in our country.

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<v Speaker 10>Because Byron Donald's who is from East Flatbush, Brooklyn, as myself,

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<v Speaker 10>and Tim Scott who is from the great state of

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<v Speaker 10>South Carolina, and Marco Ruvio, who is Latino, they know

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<v Speaker 10>damn well who normally ends up at the bottom of

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<v Speaker 10>this criminal the actual VICTI by.

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<v Speaker 2>The way, that lady never goes to Costco the first one.

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<v Speaker 2>And what point exactly is she making here? Anyway, they

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<v Speaker 2>were very excited, They remain excited. They will continue to

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<v Speaker 2>be excited until the appeals process either upholds or destroys

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<v Speaker 2>what the New York court. Now. Of course, all of

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<v Speaker 2>these people, if they're talking about let's say, no African

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<v Speaker 2>American defendants, would have plenty to say about a justice

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<v Speaker 2>system if it was Deep Dock, Alabama. But because this

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<v Speaker 2>is brought in beautiful New York City, justice has been done.

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<v Speaker 2>But on the right, of course, I believe, well, now

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<v Speaker 2>that I have done this to Trump, it is time

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<v Speaker 2>to start drawing up lists and do it in reverse.

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<v Speaker 11>Now what we need is steely resolve. I hope all

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<v Speaker 11>of you are angry. I hope you're hurt. I hope

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<v Speaker 11>you see what's happening to your republic. I hope you

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<v Speaker 11>see it all. I want you to internalize it, and

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<v Speaker 11>I want that channeled in what is going to be

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<v Speaker 11>an enormous outburst of energy downrange to defeat this. The

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<v Speaker 11>only way it's going to be defeated.

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<v Speaker 2>Is at the ballot box.

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<v Speaker 11>And when we win at the ballot box and close

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<v Speaker 11>the deal this time, we can start to take this

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<v Speaker 11>apparatus apart roches jail.

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<v Speaker 12>They should get the death penalty.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, we actually used to have the punishment for

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<v Speaker 4>treason in this country for surectionally.

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<v Speaker 12>Wow, they'll actually hurt us like they would execute us.

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<v Speaker 13>Me.

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<v Speaker 12>I'll just see you to speak for myself. And there

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<v Speaker 12>would be an MSNBC panel of formal federal prosecutors telling

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<v Speaker 12>their audience that they deserved it, and they'd be laughing,

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<v Speaker 12>and the Lincoln Project would send out a congratulatory tweet.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, like you have had a couple of nights to

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<v Speaker 2>sleep on it, and you try to work out you

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<v Speaker 2>try to think, Okay, is this the red line that

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<v Speaker 2>now Trump is a convicted felon that you can no

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<v Speaker 2>longer want him to win the presidency in November, or

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<v Speaker 2>is it an example of a system that was twisted

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<v Speaker 2>in every way possible to get the verdict so they

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<v Speaker 2>could have the title of convicted felon. And I'll be

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<v Speaker 2>honest with you. When I woke up and saw it

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<v Speaker 2>all happening on Friday, and I was here on Friday

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<v Speaker 2>with my dear friend Laura Jays, I was angry. I

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<v Speaker 2>was angry because, as I've told you before, I've spent

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<v Speaker 2>many a sleepless night watching the court case, watching it,

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<v Speaker 2>trying to watch it on MSNBC, where they have nothing

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<v Speaker 2>prosecutors telling you why everything pointed to guilty. And then,

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<v Speaker 2>of course, my wonderful friend and much bigger brain than me,

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<v Speaker 2>Meghan Kelly, I've been watching her show and talking to

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<v Speaker 2>her on the air about why this was again stitched

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<v Speaker 2>together to get the result that they got. So no

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<v Speaker 2>doubt you. If you are somebody who would like to

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<v Speaker 2>see Trump return to the presidency, or even more importantly,

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<v Speaker 2>like to see Biden removed from the presidency, this has

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<v Speaker 2>been an odd weekend because to the lefties amongst us,

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<v Speaker 2>this is the point of our return. How could you

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<v Speaker 2>possibly think anything other than a jury of his peers

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<v Speaker 2>found him guilty. Well, of course that's true. But just

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<v Speaker 2>as I said about a black man on trial in

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<v Speaker 2>deep dark parts of the American South, you would know

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<v Speaker 2>that the system is moved in certain ways to get

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<v Speaker 2>that result. And I believe that that is what happened

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<v Speaker 2>here in New York. Now, I believe when it comes

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<v Speaker 2>to Donald Trump that this was not the line. This

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<v Speaker 2>was not the moment to take us into the criminal

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<v Speaker 2>prosecution of a former president. I think the retention of

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<v Speaker 2>documents in Mari Lago, Yeah, that's okay, because it's about

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<v Speaker 2>his time as the president. The evidence seems pretty obvious

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<v Speaker 2>there that when given multiple opportunities to hand back what

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<v Speaker 2>are documents that the public own and literally everything from

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<v Speaker 2>a post it note that you write in the White

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<v Speaker 2>House through to almost everything that's produced during your presidency,

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<v Speaker 2>Yes you have to give it back. Now. Yes Joe

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<v Speaker 2>Biden didn't give it back. Yes there are other examples,

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<v Speaker 2>but that's a federal trial. But that federal trial has

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<v Speaker 2>been delayed so probably won't be dealt with before the election.

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<v Speaker 2>So I personally feel that the wrong thing happened. But again,

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<v Speaker 2>it's a weird moment because the people who hate Donald

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<v Speaker 2>Trump take this conversation I'm having with you right now

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<v Speaker 2>and say there they are in denial of the truth,

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<v Speaker 2>just like they were after the election. I wasn't in

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<v Speaker 2>an election denier. It was obvious. It was clear that yes,

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<v Speaker 2>everyone did their part, and everyone changed the system as

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<v Speaker 2>best as they could. But still the legal result was

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<v Speaker 2>that Trump lost twenty twenty. In the couple of years

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<v Speaker 2>between twenty and twenty two, there was an active conversation

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<v Speaker 2>about whether the world had moved on from Trump or not.

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<v Speaker 2>But the reality was, as we saw with the primary process,

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<v Speaker 2>that Republican voters in the United States forget what we

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<v Speaker 2>think in Australia. They believe that there is unfinished business

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<v Speaker 2>in the Trump candidacy and potentially a second term of

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<v Speaker 2>the Trump presidency. Now, the truth about how we all

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<v Speaker 2>feel in Australia is of course irrelevant because we don't

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<v Speaker 2>have a vote. But the direction of America is what

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<v Speaker 2>sets it for the Western world, and many of us

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<v Speaker 2>believe that Joe Biden's taken it in the wrong direction.

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<v Speaker 2>So if the person to take down Biden is Trump,

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<v Speaker 2>well then you're forced into a scenario of backing the

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<v Speaker 2>imperfect candidate, a candidate who yes, now has thirty four

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<v Speaker 2>convictions against him. But tonight, I also wanted to do

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<v Speaker 2>something apart from just talk through some of the emotions,

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<v Speaker 2>because it is implicated, right. It's not frown face, it's

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<v Speaker 2>not sookie time. It's just complicated because, like you, I've

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<v Speaker 2>lost friends over being even Trump literate, litt alone pro Trump.

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<v Speaker 2>At times I was mocked and who cares we lead

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<v Speaker 2>with our chin, but mocked because I interviewed the president

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<v Speaker 2>and I didn't ask the question that they wanted asked.

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<v Speaker 2>So I know what this is like when polite society

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<v Speaker 2>is over here and you are sometimes not where polite

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<v Speaker 2>society is. But we'll all find out together in November

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<v Speaker 2>about whether it's where the American people are. But tonight

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<v Speaker 2>I wanted to, just like when we do a by election,

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<v Speaker 2>a state election, a budget or a federal election, try

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<v Speaker 2>to bring it down to five things. Now, it's not

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<v Speaker 2>five things that you need to know about what happened

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<v Speaker 2>in the court, because we've all seen what happened in

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<v Speaker 2>the court. We all saw that the judge probably should

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<v Speaker 2>have recused himself because he literally donated against Trump pro Biden,

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<v Speaker 2>And you would think exactly the same thing if it

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<v Speaker 2>we say, Joe Biden on trial in the most pro

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<v Speaker 2>Trump state. But of course that is not the reality.

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<v Speaker 2>The reality is, of course, what's happened to Trump. But

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<v Speaker 2>he's five things, the five questions that I have been asked,

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<v Speaker 2>be it at the servo or be it at anyone

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<v Speaker 2>have had the chance to talk to this weekend, let

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<v Speaker 2>alone the ones that I think we should just try

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<v Speaker 2>to answer so we all understand the process and that

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<v Speaker 2>we're too from here. So five things that we need

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<v Speaker 2>to know begins with what happens next. Now I've read

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<v Speaker 2>an awful lot on this, but let's go from say

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<v Speaker 2>the ABC America, which is not like ours. It's a

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<v Speaker 2>commercial network, the ABC America reporting about what happens next.

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<v Speaker 2>So between now and July the eleventh, there'll be a

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<v Speaker 2>thing called a pre sentencing investigation. Now, this is where

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<v Speaker 2>literally somebody will do a mental health check on the

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<v Speaker 2>former president. Would he be able to serve time in jail?

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<v Speaker 2>Is he physically able to do so, all the rest

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<v Speaker 2>of it. They will also put together a thing called

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<v Speaker 2>a probation report, which is if the decision was made

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<v Speaker 2>for him not to go to jail. Well, what limits

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<v Speaker 2>could be put on his life now? Obviously everything from

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<v Speaker 2>a suspended sentence to thirty days stuck at home, no phone, house,

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<v Speaker 2>arrest store, of course, the same period of time in jail.

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<v Speaker 2>You also need to know that when it comes to

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<v Speaker 2>jail and Donald Trump, that yes, he would actually have

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<v Speaker 2>to have his Secret Service with him. See, all presidents

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<v Speaker 2>for the rest of their life are called mister President, unless,

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<v Speaker 2>of course, it was in this courtroom and it was

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<v Speaker 2>just mister Trump, mister Trump, mister Trump, but still the

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<v Speaker 2>honorary the title of mister President travels with you until

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<v Speaker 2>your death, as does Secret Service to physically secure you. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>some presidents also have full access and they make the

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<v Speaker 2>most of the full access to get intelligence briefings, all

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<v Speaker 2>the rest of it. And many of those things have

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<v Speaker 2>been cut off by the Biden administration because they believe

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<v Speaker 2>that Trump does not deserve or should not have access

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<v Speaker 2>to that information. But then back into the court, both

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<v Speaker 2>the prosecution and the defense will have their opportunity to

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<v Speaker 2>turn around and say what they think should happen. Now.

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<v Speaker 2>Alvin Bragg, who is the prosecutor on Friday, was asked,

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<v Speaker 2>will you be pushing for jail. He did not say so,

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<v Speaker 2>but in previous times he has said that he would

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<v Speaker 2>be pushing for jail. Obviously, the defense will firstly turn

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<v Speaker 2>around and say, ignore what the jury said, that's not

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<v Speaker 2>going to happen, or give us the lightest possible touch here,

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<v Speaker 2>maybe a fine, maybe a suspended sentence. But all of

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<v Speaker 2>this comes down to the decision of the judge, who

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<v Speaker 2>is the same judge who's been all the way through

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<v Speaker 2>the process, from the grand jury looking at the information,

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<v Speaker 2>to the selection of the jury, to the running of

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<v Speaker 2>the trial to the watching of the verdict. That judge,

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<v Speaker 2>Judge Michon, will now hand down his sentence on July

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<v Speaker 2>the eleventh. Now, what is amazing about that date is

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<v Speaker 2>literally just four days later, the president, the former president

0:11:54.120 --> 0:11:56.559
<v Speaker 2>of the United States, will be accepting the Republican nomination

0:11:56.800 --> 0:12:02.400
<v Speaker 2>at the Republican Convention. Now, if he decided to jail him,

0:12:02.400 --> 0:12:05.600
<v Speaker 2>he could jail him immediately, or the expectation is that

0:12:05.600 --> 0:12:08.440
<v Speaker 2>because of the appeal process, the sentence would stand, but

0:12:08.480 --> 0:12:12.199
<v Speaker 2>it would just keep being delayed until the appeal process finishes.

0:12:12.400 --> 0:12:14.840
<v Speaker 2>Now Trump will appeal. I'll get to the details of

0:12:14.880 --> 0:12:17.840
<v Speaker 2>why they think that will be successful in a moment.

0:12:18.520 --> 0:12:22.520
<v Speaker 2>But let's deal with number two here, will Trump go

0:12:22.600 --> 0:12:26.880
<v Speaker 2>to jail? Now, again, we're going off the what happens

0:12:26.920 --> 0:12:30.480
<v Speaker 2>next here. So NBC, when they had a reporter who

0:12:30.559 --> 0:12:32.880
<v Speaker 2>apparently had spoken to a bunch of other people behind

0:12:32.920 --> 0:12:36.000
<v Speaker 2>the scenes, said this about whether or not he will

0:12:36.000 --> 0:12:38.480
<v Speaker 2>be going to jail as a result of these thirty

0:12:38.480 --> 0:12:39.319
<v Speaker 2>four convictions.

0:12:40.559 --> 0:12:41.120
<v Speaker 4>Here's the deal.

0:12:41.160 --> 0:12:43.400
<v Speaker 6>He's going to be sentenced on July eleventh. From what

0:12:43.679 --> 0:12:46.720
<v Speaker 6>legal experts have told us, it is unlikely that the

0:12:46.760 --> 0:12:49.719
<v Speaker 6>former president will end up behind bars. Obviously that is

0:12:49.760 --> 0:12:52.360
<v Speaker 6>a possibility. There is a chance that it happens. But remember,

0:12:52.400 --> 0:12:54.839
<v Speaker 6>he is a first time offender. This is a non

0:12:54.960 --> 0:12:57.440
<v Speaker 6>violent set of crimes that he's been convicted of, these

0:12:57.480 --> 0:13:01.200
<v Speaker 6>falsification of business records here, and so the guidance from

0:13:01.240 --> 0:13:04.320
<v Speaker 6>the folks who are immersed and steeped in the law

0:13:04.360 --> 0:13:06.760
<v Speaker 6>of it all is that it is unlikely that Judge

0:13:06.840 --> 0:13:08.439
<v Speaker 6>Murshan would sentence him.

0:13:08.880 --> 0:13:10.800
<v Speaker 2>Now, of course, the rathers that say no, slam dunk,

0:13:11.160 --> 0:13:13.080
<v Speaker 2>he should send him to job. But again I'm trying

0:13:13.080 --> 0:13:15.720
<v Speaker 2>to show you the reporting from America that is showing

0:13:15.760 --> 0:13:18.839
<v Speaker 2>what all of the options are. Over on CNN, again,

0:13:18.960 --> 0:13:21.480
<v Speaker 2>one of their legal analysts doesn't think that he's going

0:13:21.520 --> 0:13:23.600
<v Speaker 2>to go to jail, But of course it's completely up

0:13:23.640 --> 0:13:25.920
<v Speaker 2>to the judge, and the judges we know throughout the

0:13:25.960 --> 0:13:28.600
<v Speaker 2>trial pretty much has said no to everything the defense wants,

0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:32.080
<v Speaker 2>including witnesses that the defense claimed would have been able

0:13:32.080 --> 0:13:34.920
<v Speaker 2>to prove that he was innocent. Instead, he pumped up

0:13:34.960 --> 0:13:37.280
<v Speaker 2>everything that the prosecution wanted. So is he going to

0:13:37.280 --> 0:13:38.760
<v Speaker 2>be on the harder side of things. We'll all find

0:13:38.760 --> 0:13:40.120
<v Speaker 2>out together, But he's CNN.

0:13:41.720 --> 0:13:44.439
<v Speaker 14>If we look at the universe of Class E convictions

0:13:44.480 --> 0:13:47.040
<v Speaker 14>in New York State, and several good researchers out there

0:13:47.080 --> 0:13:50.160
<v Speaker 14>have done sort of surveys over the last year or so, Generally,

0:13:50.200 --> 0:13:53.120
<v Speaker 14>the estimates are that somewhere between seventy and ninety percent

0:13:53.160 --> 0:13:56.960
<v Speaker 14>of Class E New York convictions result in non prison sentences,

0:13:56.960 --> 0:14:00.600
<v Speaker 14>So that would be some combination of probation five perhaps

0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:04.280
<v Speaker 14>community service by the Congress. Of that ten to thirty

0:14:04.480 --> 0:14:07.760
<v Speaker 14>ish percent do result in prison time, and this will

0:14:07.800 --> 0:14:09.960
<v Speaker 14>be entirely up to Judge Mursham.

0:14:10.960 --> 0:14:12.920
<v Speaker 2>So it's a small chance, but still ten to thirty

0:14:12.920 --> 0:14:15.840
<v Speaker 2>percent means if for whatever reason they thought that because

0:14:15.880 --> 0:14:18.720
<v Speaker 2>you keep breaking the gag order, because you've never said sorry,

0:14:18.720 --> 0:14:21.840
<v Speaker 2>because you double down because you say the process is

0:14:21.920 --> 0:14:24.960
<v Speaker 2>read let alone. If it's a bias care room, there

0:14:25.040 --> 0:14:28.440
<v Speaker 2>is a avenue, but it is the unlikely avenue again

0:14:28.520 --> 0:14:30.920
<v Speaker 2>based off what they're reporting in America, and I know

0:14:31.080 --> 0:14:33.080
<v Speaker 2>that you can find an expert that'll tell you one

0:14:33.160 --> 0:14:35.120
<v Speaker 2>hundred percent this way, one hundred percent that way. I'm

0:14:35.160 --> 0:14:37.280
<v Speaker 2>trying to give you a flavor of where things are

0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:39.440
<v Speaker 2>going to go. I've given you my opinion at the start,

0:14:39.440 --> 0:14:41.360
<v Speaker 2>but as always, we're trying to follow the data for

0:14:41.440 --> 0:14:44.200
<v Speaker 2>you here. So number three, if you don't go to jail,

0:14:44.240 --> 0:14:47.320
<v Speaker 2>as you go to jail straight away. Now remember that's

0:14:47.360 --> 0:14:51.680
<v Speaker 2>four days before the Republican convention. So if he was

0:14:51.680 --> 0:14:54.000
<v Speaker 2>going to sentence him to jail, obviously it happens on

0:14:54.080 --> 0:14:57.960
<v Speaker 2>that day and he goes or maybe not. Again, it's

0:14:58.000 --> 0:15:02.080
<v Speaker 2>all down to the judge. Mahon is a person who

0:15:03.160 --> 0:15:07.200
<v Speaker 2>literally left wing prosecution. Former prosecution people were on MSNBC

0:15:07.360 --> 0:15:08.840
<v Speaker 2>saying that had a man crush on him because he

0:15:08.880 --> 0:15:14.880
<v Speaker 2>was the most amazing example of a normal judge. But

0:15:14.960 --> 0:15:19.240
<v Speaker 2>of course the X factor here isn't just whether he

0:15:19.240 --> 0:15:21.040
<v Speaker 2>would go to jail or not, but of course what

0:15:21.120 --> 0:15:24.280
<v Speaker 2>happens those couple of days later, and as I mentioned

0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:26.800
<v Speaker 2>to you, Trump turning up at the Republican Convention like

0:15:26.840 --> 0:15:29.720
<v Speaker 2>he did WWE style, I do love this entrance. I

0:15:29.760 --> 0:15:33.040
<v Speaker 2>do love this entrance. Good bit of theater. But at WWE,

0:15:33.120 --> 0:15:34.840
<v Speaker 2>I think involved in all of that. After all, he's

0:15:34.880 --> 0:15:37.400
<v Speaker 2>a Hall of Famer in the World Wrestling entertainment, in

0:15:37.400 --> 0:15:40.600
<v Speaker 2>the celebrity wing. For those who want to follow the facts,

0:15:42.840 --> 0:15:48.920
<v Speaker 2>the convention is literally the next week, so again fascinating.

0:15:49.280 --> 0:15:51.800
<v Speaker 2>If he's sent to jail, does he miss the convention

0:15:52.040 --> 0:15:54.360
<v Speaker 2>or because of as I said before, the appeals process,

0:15:54.640 --> 0:15:57.600
<v Speaker 2>even if he's sent to jail, he doesn't actually go

0:15:57.680 --> 0:16:00.960
<v Speaker 2>to jail straight away again CNN.

0:16:01.960 --> 0:16:04.280
<v Speaker 14>If Donald Trump does get a prison sentence imposed on

0:16:04.360 --> 0:16:07.600
<v Speaker 14>him on July eleventh, odds are very very high he

0:16:07.720 --> 0:16:10.640
<v Speaker 14>will not have to start serving that sentence right away

0:16:10.640 --> 0:16:13.120
<v Speaker 14>because in a case like this, he's very likely to

0:16:13.160 --> 0:16:15.880
<v Speaker 14>get what we call bail pending appeal, meaning he will

0:16:16.080 --> 0:16:20.040
<v Speaker 14>almost certainly not have to begin serving any sentence until

0:16:20.080 --> 0:16:22.680
<v Speaker 14>after all of his appeals are done.

0:16:23.320 --> 0:16:26.040
<v Speaker 2>And that process will not be this year. Most likely.

0:16:26.080 --> 0:16:28.560
<v Speaker 2>The expectation is the appeal process could go through until

0:16:29.040 --> 0:16:31.120
<v Speaker 2>next year. Next year, we're of course, he's the president

0:16:31.200 --> 0:16:36.000
<v Speaker 2>of the United States. Now, interestingly, in that process, this

0:16:36.160 --> 0:16:38.480
<v Speaker 2>is a state court decision. So whether a state court

0:16:38.520 --> 0:16:40.720
<v Speaker 2>can somehow force a president to jail, I don't know.

0:16:40.840 --> 0:16:42.840
<v Speaker 2>Or whether it's something that starts the day you finished

0:16:42.880 --> 0:16:46.480
<v Speaker 2>being president again, I don't know. So then there's the

0:16:46.600 --> 0:16:49.000
<v Speaker 2>question of the appeal. Now I've been led to believe

0:16:49.000 --> 0:16:51.840
<v Speaker 2>by the experts that I've been watching and reading that

0:16:51.920 --> 0:16:55.280
<v Speaker 2>the appeal process would be pretty friendly to Donald Trump.

0:16:55.320 --> 0:16:57.280
<v Speaker 2>But of course I've been viewing it that way. Why

0:16:57.320 --> 0:16:59.000
<v Speaker 2>because I don't think you should have been found guilty

0:16:59.160 --> 0:17:01.800
<v Speaker 2>in this case, because in my belief that it wasn't proven.

0:17:01.800 --> 0:17:03.840
<v Speaker 2>But it doesn't matter what I say, that jury made

0:17:03.840 --> 0:17:07.720
<v Speaker 2>its decision. Our dear friend, Megan Kelly explains why she's

0:17:07.720 --> 0:17:10.640
<v Speaker 2>so confident he will win an appeal, but it could

0:17:10.720 --> 0:17:12.000
<v Speaker 2>take up to a year.

0:17:13.600 --> 0:17:17.880
<v Speaker 8>This will be reversed. It will be reversed. This will

0:17:17.920 --> 0:17:20.720
<v Speaker 8>not stand, mark my words, even in a New York

0:17:20.720 --> 0:17:23.480
<v Speaker 8>appella court system that is weighted with Democrats on the bench.

0:17:23.960 --> 0:17:26.000
<v Speaker 8>The highest court in New York is called the Court

0:17:26.040 --> 0:17:30.240
<v Speaker 8>of Appeals. It's not completely corrupt. It just overturned the

0:17:30.280 --> 0:17:34.040
<v Speaker 8>conviction of Harvey Weinstein because he wasn't given a fair trial.

0:17:34.600 --> 0:17:37.520
<v Speaker 8>They are capable of reaching a rational decision, and if

0:17:37.560 --> 0:17:40.320
<v Speaker 8>they're not, this could be appealed up higher still to

0:17:40.359 --> 0:17:44.440
<v Speaker 8>the US Supreme Court. There were state constitutional violations here,

0:17:44.520 --> 0:17:47.440
<v Speaker 8>and there were federal constitutional violations here.

0:17:48.200 --> 0:17:49.639
<v Speaker 2>And again this is why I'm sitting up in the

0:17:49.680 --> 0:17:51.440
<v Speaker 2>middle of the night and feeling and we're not quite

0:17:51.480 --> 0:17:54.960
<v Speaker 2>going in the direction that common sense would dictate. Not

0:17:55.040 --> 0:17:57.640
<v Speaker 2>about blind faith about Trump. As I say, Document's case.

0:17:57.640 --> 0:17:59.800
<v Speaker 2>I think there's a pretty clear case there that is

0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:03.640
<v Speaker 2>very difficult for him to defend. But of course we're

0:18:03.640 --> 0:18:05.320
<v Speaker 2>talking with Megan later in the week, and I wanted

0:18:05.359 --> 0:18:07.800
<v Speaker 2>to take a big chunk of time tonight not to

0:18:07.800 --> 0:18:09.760
<v Speaker 2>just talk about the opinion, but to talk about the machine.

0:18:09.800 --> 0:18:12.160
<v Speaker 2>So you now know when people ask you, so, can

0:18:12.200 --> 0:18:16.560
<v Speaker 2>he appeal, Yes, he can appeal. Will he go to jail? Unlikely?

0:18:16.680 --> 0:18:19.600
<v Speaker 2>But still the option is there if he goes, If

0:18:19.640 --> 0:18:22.040
<v Speaker 2>he gets sentenced, does he get slotted straight away? Well, no,

0:18:22.240 --> 0:18:25.320
<v Speaker 2>you have to wait for the appeal process. Again, there's

0:18:25.520 --> 0:18:27.560
<v Speaker 2>very very minor ways where he could go to jail

0:18:27.600 --> 0:18:29.280
<v Speaker 2>straight away, But we're trying to deal with what is

0:18:29.359 --> 0:18:33.360
<v Speaker 2>more likely than not so then the obvious has there

0:18:33.359 --> 0:18:37.320
<v Speaker 2>been any immediate political sign here that guilty equals Trump

0:18:37.359 --> 0:18:40.560
<v Speaker 2>going from leading the race to suddenly going the other

0:18:40.560 --> 0:18:42.520
<v Speaker 2>way in Biden getting up and over the top. That's,

0:18:42.640 --> 0:18:45.280
<v Speaker 2>of course proving the central thesis of Trump and all

0:18:45.320 --> 0:18:47.520
<v Speaker 2>of his supporters that all of this is political. He

0:18:47.640 --> 0:18:49.199
<v Speaker 2>was winning in all the polls to this point, and

0:18:49.280 --> 0:18:51.480
<v Speaker 2>is this the moment that sends the race to the

0:18:51.480 --> 0:18:54.560
<v Speaker 2>other direction. So, as you know, it's not about fifty states,

0:18:54.560 --> 0:18:57.119
<v Speaker 2>they all have an election, it's seven states that end

0:18:57.200 --> 0:19:00.000
<v Speaker 2>up mattering. These are seven states that voted for Trump,

0:19:00.080 --> 0:19:02.240
<v Speaker 2>voted against Trump, might be coming back to Trump. And

0:19:02.280 --> 0:19:05.280
<v Speaker 2>according to the latest Real Clear Politics Average, Now that's

0:19:05.280 --> 0:19:08.400
<v Speaker 2>a website that literally looks at every single poll, does

0:19:08.440 --> 0:19:11.520
<v Speaker 2>the mats, does the averaging. It shows that Trump is

0:19:11.560 --> 0:19:18.760
<v Speaker 2>in the lead in Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada. Now,

0:19:18.840 --> 0:19:22.719
<v Speaker 2>even if the average is slightly slightly generous to Trump,

0:19:22.960 --> 0:19:26.919
<v Speaker 2>that only takes one two states off the table. So

0:19:26.880 --> 0:19:29.680
<v Speaker 2>I'll be leading in five of the seven right now.

0:19:30.520 --> 0:19:32.680
<v Speaker 2>But Forbes magazine, they had a look at a Morning

0:19:32.720 --> 0:19:35.720
<v Speaker 2>Consult poll which just came out in the past twenty

0:19:35.720 --> 0:19:39.000
<v Speaker 2>four hours, and it does show some signs that those

0:19:39.080 --> 0:19:42.960
<v Speaker 2>margins may well get changed, and changed pretty quickly. In fact,

0:19:43.200 --> 0:19:45.960
<v Speaker 2>they claim that ten percent of Republicans in the reutter

0:19:46.000 --> 0:19:49.679
<v Speaker 2>IPSOS poll survey of two and a half thousand Americans

0:19:49.680 --> 0:19:52.280
<v Speaker 2>are less likely to vote for Trump because of the

0:19:52.359 --> 0:19:56.160
<v Speaker 2>conviction eighteen percent of independence so they are more likely

0:19:56.320 --> 0:19:58.679
<v Speaker 2>to vote for Trump. So there are of course more

0:19:58.720 --> 0:20:03.160
<v Speaker 2>Republicans and there are in pons, so statistically that would

0:20:03.200 --> 0:20:06.760
<v Speaker 2>still end up with Trump having fewer votes. It's explained

0:20:06.760 --> 0:20:09.160
<v Speaker 2>again this way on NBC News. I'm trying to show

0:20:09.160 --> 0:20:11.119
<v Speaker 2>you the sources that are not friendly to Trump, and

0:20:11.320 --> 0:20:12.960
<v Speaker 2>NBC goes through this pole as.

0:20:12.800 --> 0:20:17.720
<v Speaker 3>Well, eleven percent of GOP voters and twenty six percent

0:20:17.760 --> 0:20:21.159
<v Speaker 3>of independent voters suggesting they're less likely to vote for

0:20:21.240 --> 0:20:25.080
<v Speaker 3>him now, but largely the historic conviction keeping the Bait

0:20:25.160 --> 0:20:27.960
<v Speaker 3>and Trump rematch in that scene month's long deadluck.

0:20:29.400 --> 0:20:31.800
<v Speaker 2>So in that one they have Biden just in front

0:20:31.800 --> 0:20:33.840
<v Speaker 2>by one point, but that's nationally, not in the seven

0:20:33.880 --> 0:20:36.520
<v Speaker 2>states that matter. Obviously, as this week rolls on, the

0:20:36.560 --> 0:20:38.640
<v Speaker 2>next couple of weeks will start to get even more poles.

0:20:39.200 --> 0:20:41.120
<v Speaker 2>But the final word on the polls and about whether

0:20:41.160 --> 0:20:44.600
<v Speaker 2>this is moving or not. Let's dig even deeper into

0:20:44.640 --> 0:20:48.640
<v Speaker 2>the data. And five point thirty eight is a website

0:20:48.640 --> 0:20:51.000
<v Speaker 2>which is owned by ABC News in America, again the

0:20:51.040 --> 0:20:54.800
<v Speaker 2>commercial station, not like our ABC here, and they deep

0:20:54.840 --> 0:20:57.320
<v Speaker 2>dive into every little this, that and the other. It's

0:20:57.400 --> 0:20:59.200
<v Speaker 2>one of the sources that I turn to to try

0:20:59.200 --> 0:21:01.879
<v Speaker 2>to file through things. They are a bunch of lefties,

0:21:02.359 --> 0:21:05.880
<v Speaker 2>but still they say here that the movement, yes, might

0:21:05.920 --> 0:21:09.400
<v Speaker 2>be away from Trump, but it's not towards Biden.

0:21:10.520 --> 0:21:13.640
<v Speaker 9>In terms of kind of their raw support. Donald Trump's

0:21:13.720 --> 0:21:17.320
<v Speaker 9>number goes down by six points, but Joe Biden's number

0:21:17.400 --> 0:21:20.399
<v Speaker 9>only goes up by one point. What's happening here is that?

0:21:21.000 --> 0:21:22.880
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, another BFD.

0:21:23.080 --> 0:21:25.600
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, what's happening here is that Trump supporters in these

0:21:25.600 --> 0:21:29.399
<v Speaker 9>polls are going from Trump to undecided or I believe

0:21:29.400 --> 0:21:31.119
<v Speaker 9>one of the polls had kind of a vague quote

0:21:31.160 --> 0:21:36.480
<v Speaker 9>someone else's option. That is a very convenient place for

0:21:36.560 --> 0:21:39.959
<v Speaker 9>people who want to vote for Trump to park their

0:21:40.000 --> 0:21:43.320
<v Speaker 9>support for basically the next month or so.

0:21:43.320 --> 0:21:44.960
<v Speaker 2>So well, all of the attention, all of the noise

0:21:45.000 --> 0:21:47.480
<v Speaker 2>had there, could you possibly support Donald Trump? That's where

0:21:47.520 --> 0:21:50.879
<v Speaker 2>potentially that vote may go before it goes back to

0:21:50.920 --> 0:21:54.359
<v Speaker 2>Trump now. Of course, between now and the judge making

0:21:54.400 --> 0:21:57.159
<v Speaker 2>his decision on the eleventh of July, there'll be a

0:21:57.160 --> 0:22:01.400
<v Speaker 2>presidential debate. Trump could kill it or kill is chances

0:22:01.400 --> 0:22:03.119
<v Speaker 2>because we know when it comes to debating, he's got

0:22:03.119 --> 0:22:05.879
<v Speaker 2>to control himself. But that debate is very different than

0:22:05.920 --> 0:22:08.720
<v Speaker 2>the one that happened four years ago. Remember, no studio audience,

0:22:08.920 --> 0:22:12.200
<v Speaker 2>microphones can be cut off. It's very pro Biden scenario.

0:22:12.240 --> 0:22:14.879
<v Speaker 2>But there's plenty between now and then. So at this stage,

0:22:15.240 --> 0:22:17.240
<v Speaker 2>a couple of days after it, Yes, there's a moment

0:22:17.240 --> 0:22:19.240
<v Speaker 2>in the polls. Yes, it is away from Trump, but

0:22:19.280 --> 0:22:22.439
<v Speaker 2>according to them, it is not directly to Biden. So

0:22:23.200 --> 0:22:25.040
<v Speaker 2>the five things that you need to know, he's the

0:22:25.400 --> 0:22:29.200
<v Speaker 2>simple yes no answers. Okay. I explained about what happens next,

0:22:29.200 --> 0:22:32.240
<v Speaker 2>where we go through the process of working out his sentence,

0:22:32.240 --> 0:22:36.000
<v Speaker 2>which comes down on July the eleventh. It is assumed

0:22:36.000 --> 0:22:38.600
<v Speaker 2>to be a lower chance that he goes to jail.

0:22:41.600 --> 0:22:44.879
<v Speaker 2>He would not have to go to jail right away.

0:22:45.720 --> 0:22:48.800
<v Speaker 2>He would be able to appeal, and the suggestion is

0:22:48.840 --> 0:22:51.760
<v Speaker 2>that the way the judge ram things would be one

0:22:51.800 --> 0:22:53.359
<v Speaker 2>of the main reasons he'd go for the appeal and

0:22:53.400 --> 0:22:56.159
<v Speaker 2>potentially win it if you agree with me that it

0:22:56.240 --> 0:22:59.760
<v Speaker 2>was a somewhat unfair process, not exactly middle of the road.

0:23:00.040 --> 0:23:01.800
<v Speaker 2>And I've just explained the polls to you, So there

0:23:01.840 --> 0:23:06.880
<v Speaker 2>you go. My thoughts, my feelings and the data about

0:23:07.119 --> 0:23:11.440
<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump found guilty thirty four times in a row

0:23:11.880 --> 0:23:15.280
<v Speaker 2>in New York. Now this will get him going in

0:23:15.320 --> 0:23:19.440
<v Speaker 2>camber because Parliament's back again this week. What do the

0:23:19.480 --> 0:23:22.960
<v Speaker 2>current Prime Minister of Australia and the former president of

0:23:22.960 --> 0:23:27.120
<v Speaker 2>the United States have in common. Well, they can never

0:23:27.160 --> 0:23:29.800
<v Speaker 2>admit a mistake. They can never admit that anything they

0:23:29.800 --> 0:23:35.160
<v Speaker 2>did was just wrong. Perfect example Andrew Giles, the Immigration Minister. Now,

0:23:35.200 --> 0:23:38.080
<v Speaker 2>of course, as you know, decision was made by Anthony

0:23:38.160 --> 0:23:41.640
<v Speaker 2>Arbernese to help out just Center Durn with her domestic

0:23:41.680 --> 0:23:44.200
<v Speaker 2>politics before she of course quit the post and Labor

0:23:44.359 --> 0:23:47.080
<v Speaker 2>lost the New Zealand election. Made the decision to introduce

0:23:47.119 --> 0:23:48.639
<v Speaker 2>a new law that basically said, if you've got a

0:23:48.680 --> 0:23:52.720
<v Speaker 2>connection to Australia, you can stay in Australia. This meant

0:23:52.760 --> 0:23:54.840
<v Speaker 2>that people like a bloke from Africa who married an

0:23:54.840 --> 0:23:56.879
<v Speaker 2>Indigenous woman was able to stay in the country because

0:23:56.920 --> 0:23:59.080
<v Speaker 2>he had kids with that woman and apparently could play

0:23:59.119 --> 0:24:03.760
<v Speaker 2>the Digitido. Stay here, don't get deported. But back to this,

0:24:04.320 --> 0:24:09.479
<v Speaker 2>nothing's a mistake, Murray what hardcore partisan? The agriculture minister

0:24:09.520 --> 0:24:10.639
<v Speaker 2>and a lot of people in the bush want me

0:24:10.720 --> 0:24:13.280
<v Speaker 2>to talk about the agriculture minister from Brucebane, but I'll

0:24:13.280 --> 0:24:15.480
<v Speaker 2>get to that. He was on television today and guess what,

0:24:15.840 --> 0:24:18.320
<v Speaker 2>no mistake, despite the fact that they have admitted it

0:24:18.359 --> 0:24:20.240
<v Speaker 2>was a mistake and they're going to change the law.

0:24:21.720 --> 0:24:24.320
<v Speaker 15>Even the advice that Andrew Charles was provided by his

0:24:24.400 --> 0:24:27.800
<v Speaker 15>department when making that direction indicated that there would be

0:24:27.840 --> 0:24:31.840
<v Speaker 15>no impact on people where we were talking about serious

0:24:31.840 --> 0:24:34.960
<v Speaker 15>offenses having been committed. Of course, that's not the way

0:24:35.040 --> 0:24:37.840
<v Speaker 15>the AAT has interpreted it. They interpreted it in a

0:24:37.880 --> 0:24:40.440
<v Speaker 15>way that was never intended by the government and that's

0:24:40.480 --> 0:24:42.600
<v Speaker 15>exactly why we're now taking action to fix it.

0:24:44.400 --> 0:24:47.719
<v Speaker 2>We changed the rules. They interpreted the rules as they

0:24:47.760 --> 0:24:51.040
<v Speaker 2>are written. It's the public servant's fault that we didn't

0:24:51.040 --> 0:24:53.920
<v Speaker 2>get advised that they could have interpreted the rules as

0:24:53.960 --> 0:24:57.000
<v Speaker 2>they were written. But clearly the admission of the mistake

0:24:57.119 --> 0:24:59.600
<v Speaker 2>was the Prime Minister saying that they would change the rules.

0:24:59.720 --> 0:25:06.360
<v Speaker 5>Right the Parliament yesterday past legislation abolishing of the raw

0:25:06.440 --> 0:25:11.840
<v Speaker 5>toed AAT and replacing it with a new Administrative Review Tribunal.

0:25:12.680 --> 0:25:17.040
<v Speaker 5>And the only effective way of ensuring that tribunal members

0:25:17.040 --> 0:25:21.640
<v Speaker 5>are making better decisions is to issue a new revised direction,

0:25:22.160 --> 0:25:26.399
<v Speaker 5>which the Minister will be doing. The new directive will

0:25:26.480 --> 0:25:30.199
<v Speaker 5>ensure that the protection the committee outweighs any other.

0:25:32.600 --> 0:25:34.640
<v Speaker 2>It's just like Trump, you never meet you wrong, never, never,

0:25:34.720 --> 0:25:36.600
<v Speaker 2>never never ever. Just like Daniel Andrews, you never have

0:25:36.680 --> 0:25:38.960
<v Speaker 2>met you wrong, ever, ever, no matter what you're caught doing,

0:25:39.000 --> 0:25:41.240
<v Speaker 2>what you're caught saying, or what you end up changing.

0:25:42.280 --> 0:25:45.360
<v Speaker 2>So yes, Albau is each way albo heir of us

0:25:45.440 --> 0:25:52.040
<v Speaker 2>elbow and now he's kind of trumpy elbow now like

0:25:52.080 --> 0:25:55.400
<v Speaker 2>everyone in Australia of reasonable mindset. I love Josh Frodenberg.

0:25:55.400 --> 0:25:57.400
<v Speaker 2>I think he's an excellent man who was a wonderful

0:25:57.600 --> 0:25:59.800
<v Speaker 2>I said to his community in Couyoon. What he did

0:25:59.800 --> 0:26:01.639
<v Speaker 2>here on the air last week when it came to

0:26:01.680 --> 0:26:04.400
<v Speaker 2>the conversation of anti Semitism, was one of the most

0:26:04.440 --> 0:26:07.439
<v Speaker 2>watched things we've ever done. Beautiful piece of programming. Well done, mate.

0:26:08.280 --> 0:26:09.960
<v Speaker 2>But there's always this question about whether he wants to

0:26:09.960 --> 0:26:11.760
<v Speaker 2>get back involved in politics or not. Now, do I

0:26:11.760 --> 0:26:13.200
<v Speaker 2>think you should be in the parliament. Yes, of course

0:26:13.240 --> 0:26:14.679
<v Speaker 2>I think you should be in the parliament. I love

0:26:14.720 --> 0:26:19.520
<v Speaker 2>the guy, but there's a couple of questions we have

0:26:19.560 --> 0:26:21.119
<v Speaker 2>to ask about whether he should jump back into the

0:26:21.119 --> 0:26:26.240
<v Speaker 2>parliament now. Now you see on Friday they announced the

0:26:26.280 --> 0:26:30.399
<v Speaker 2>new boundaries for Victorian and Western Australian seats at the election.

0:26:30.880 --> 0:26:32.760
<v Speaker 2>Believe me, you can get lost in the weeds here.

0:26:32.800 --> 0:26:36.280
<v Speaker 2>I will not bore you, but basically Couyong is now

0:26:36.280 --> 0:26:38.080
<v Speaker 2>going to be moved some of its boundaries to have

0:26:38.080 --> 0:26:40.240
<v Speaker 2>a lot more liberal vote in it, which would be

0:26:40.240 --> 0:26:43.080
<v Speaker 2>incredibly tempting for Josh to jump back in and say,

0:26:43.280 --> 0:26:45.720
<v Speaker 2>I you only just beat me. This might be the

0:26:45.720 --> 0:26:48.520
<v Speaker 2>way for me to just beat you or blow past it.

0:26:49.000 --> 0:26:51.480
<v Speaker 2>Karen Andrews, the former Home Affairs minister who's taking a

0:26:51.560 --> 0:26:53.600
<v Speaker 2>bat and ball and leaving at this election. By the way,

0:26:54.600 --> 0:26:57.320
<v Speaker 2>she says that Josh Friedenberg, in my view, with someone

0:26:57.320 --> 0:26:58.760
<v Speaker 2>that we need to bring back to the Liberal Party

0:26:58.800 --> 0:27:01.719
<v Speaker 2>and Indo federal politics. I think we have an opportunity

0:27:01.760 --> 0:27:03.760
<v Speaker 2>to revisit this blah blah blah blah blah blah blah

0:27:03.760 --> 0:27:08.000
<v Speaker 2>blah blah. But here's my advice to Joosh if he

0:27:08.040 --> 0:27:11.000
<v Speaker 2>wants to run full support, great, but you've got a

0:27:11.000 --> 0:27:14.880
<v Speaker 2>great job, pile up the money, take care of your

0:27:14.880 --> 0:27:16.680
<v Speaker 2>family and if you want to get back in politics

0:27:16.720 --> 0:27:18.800
<v Speaker 2>next election or maybe the one after that. Right, not

0:27:18.840 --> 0:27:20.640
<v Speaker 2>because I want Menique Ryan to stay in the Parliament,

0:27:20.640 --> 0:27:23.080
<v Speaker 2>but I actually think that the Liberal Party has got

0:27:23.080 --> 0:27:24.520
<v Speaker 2>a pretty good shot in the person that they have

0:27:24.560 --> 0:27:28.080
<v Speaker 2>actually pre selected for the seat of Kuyon. And let's

0:27:28.080 --> 0:27:30.320
<v Speaker 2>not deal with all of the politics of a bloke

0:27:30.400 --> 0:27:32.120
<v Speaker 2>wanting to get back into parliament and pushing a woman

0:27:32.119 --> 0:27:33.359
<v Speaker 2>out of the way. Why do you want to do

0:27:33.400 --> 0:27:36.440
<v Speaker 2>that to yourself? All right? Again, if Josh wants to

0:27:36.440 --> 0:27:37.720
<v Speaker 2>get back in, if people want to get out of

0:27:37.760 --> 0:27:39.600
<v Speaker 2>the way, we'll all back in Josh, no question, right,

0:27:39.640 --> 0:27:40.919
<v Speaker 2>But I just say, you've got a great job at

0:27:40.960 --> 0:27:44.080
<v Speaker 2>Goldman Sachs. Pile up the cash. If you want to

0:27:44.080 --> 0:27:46.120
<v Speaker 2>speak out on important issues, you've shown you've been able

0:27:46.119 --> 0:27:47.800
<v Speaker 2>to do that in the past couple of weeks. All right,

0:27:48.880 --> 0:27:51.400
<v Speaker 2>but we'll wait and see what happens. But about those

0:27:51.520 --> 0:27:55.479
<v Speaker 2>boundary changes, So one seat has been removed completely and

0:27:55.520 --> 0:27:57.920
<v Speaker 2>taken off the board. It is currently a labor seat,

0:27:57.920 --> 0:28:00.640
<v Speaker 2>the seat of Higgins, formerly a seat in the Liberal

0:28:00.680 --> 0:28:04.040
<v Speaker 2>seat for a very long period of time, a former doctor,

0:28:04.080 --> 0:28:06.760
<v Speaker 2>former boss of the AMA I think in Victoria is

0:28:06.840 --> 0:28:10.399
<v Speaker 2>the current MP, the former MP Katie Allen I think

0:28:10.480 --> 0:28:13.000
<v Speaker 2>was a good chance of taking the seat back. Why

0:28:13.119 --> 0:28:15.600
<v Speaker 2>because well it's a different politics than it was a

0:28:15.600 --> 0:28:17.240
<v Speaker 2>couple of years ago. It was only just a win

0:28:17.320 --> 0:28:20.560
<v Speaker 2>here for the MP. So that seat is now off

0:28:21.160 --> 0:28:23.480
<v Speaker 2>the table. So there's all suggestions about where should Katie

0:28:23.480 --> 0:28:25.879
<v Speaker 2>Allen go and where should this MP go again. I

0:28:25.880 --> 0:28:28.040
<v Speaker 2>won't bore you with it. I'm not anti Josh by

0:28:28.040 --> 0:28:30.800
<v Speaker 2>the way. I'm just saying, just make the money, just

0:28:31.240 --> 0:28:34.280
<v Speaker 2>feed up, make the money right and put it all

0:28:34.320 --> 0:28:36.840
<v Speaker 2>behind the young lady who's trying to defeat Menique Ryan,

0:28:36.920 --> 0:28:38.440
<v Speaker 2>so you don't have to run on the record of

0:28:38.480 --> 0:28:40.600
<v Speaker 2>previous governments and all the new usual garbage. They can go.

0:28:40.680 --> 0:28:42.240
<v Speaker 2>Be a bit hard for them to do the ulgerd

0:28:42.240 --> 0:28:44.120
<v Speaker 2>boog of politics about the young woman, as they would

0:28:44.400 --> 0:28:47.520
<v Speaker 2>about anyone involved in the previous government. But as for

0:28:47.600 --> 0:28:50.760
<v Speaker 2>the actual seats, now quite a few seats could change

0:28:50.800 --> 0:28:55.240
<v Speaker 2>hands at this next election, because the seat of Higgins disappears,

0:28:55.320 --> 0:28:58.880
<v Speaker 2>Labor down one cou Yong well as I said, it

0:28:58.880 --> 0:29:01.800
<v Speaker 2>becomes a lot more liberal. Albourne currently Green becomes more liberal,

0:29:01.840 --> 0:29:03.800
<v Speaker 2>but it's that lefty liberal, so I wouldn't expect to

0:29:03.880 --> 0:29:07.000
<v Speaker 2>change there. Wills, which is currently held by the Labour Party,

0:29:07.040 --> 0:29:09.840
<v Speaker 2>the former seat of Bob Hawk, it gets a lot

0:29:09.880 --> 0:29:12.720
<v Speaker 2>more Green voters and that's why the Green's leader in

0:29:12.760 --> 0:29:15.240
<v Speaker 2>the Upper House in Victoria has stepped down to take

0:29:15.280 --> 0:29:18.360
<v Speaker 2>on the Labour MP. And Cooper, which is also held

0:29:18.400 --> 0:29:21.960
<v Speaker 2>by the ALP, becomes a little bit more Green. Menzies

0:29:22.320 --> 0:29:24.959
<v Speaker 2>becomes a lot more ALP Deacon becomes a lot more ALP.

0:29:25.160 --> 0:29:27.600
<v Speaker 2>So you can do the sums here about weather. There's

0:29:27.640 --> 0:29:31.040
<v Speaker 2>a chance that a couple of seats go from Liberal

0:29:31.120 --> 0:29:33.560
<v Speaker 2>to Labor and Labor to Liberal, but essentially it's a

0:29:33.600 --> 0:29:36.920
<v Speaker 2>shuffling around of the same deck in the next little while.

0:29:37.120 --> 0:29:39.520
<v Speaker 2>But we will find out what is about to happen

0:29:39.600 --> 0:29:43.000
<v Speaker 2>in what seat disappears in New South Wales, and then

0:29:43.080 --> 0:29:45.440
<v Speaker 2>what's going to happen in Queensland. All of where the

0:29:45.440 --> 0:29:47.800
<v Speaker 2>map is helps tell us whether the result is going

0:29:47.840 --> 0:29:52.280
<v Speaker 2>to be one way or the other. Now, one question

0:29:52.360 --> 0:29:54.080
<v Speaker 2>I want to ask the good people of Queensland who

0:29:54.120 --> 0:29:55.560
<v Speaker 2>I love. I will say it every time. If I

0:29:55.560 --> 0:29:57.760
<v Speaker 2>could have the blood transfusions to be a Queensland I would.

0:29:57.880 --> 0:30:00.000
<v Speaker 2>I wish, I wish, I wish that I could vote

0:30:00.040 --> 0:30:03.040
<v Speaker 2>the upcoming election because Queensland needs a new start. It

0:30:03.080 --> 0:30:04.760
<v Speaker 2>needs to get rid of Stephen Miles, It needs to

0:30:04.760 --> 0:30:06.720
<v Speaker 2>get rid of the Labor government. You know all of

0:30:06.720 --> 0:30:09.880
<v Speaker 2>the reasons why, from youth crime to hospitals to their

0:30:09.920 --> 0:30:12.480
<v Speaker 2>financial management. They are shockers. Get rid of them. And

0:30:12.520 --> 0:30:14.720
<v Speaker 2>every pole tells us to this point that yeah, that's

0:30:14.760 --> 0:30:16.360
<v Speaker 2>probably going to be the case. They could lose as

0:30:16.360 --> 0:30:19.120
<v Speaker 2>many as twenty something seats that had blast them right

0:30:19.160 --> 0:30:21.840
<v Speaker 2>back into opposition, not as bad of course as the

0:30:21.880 --> 0:30:26.520
<v Speaker 2>annibly loss a few years ago. But Stephen Miles, well,

0:30:26.600 --> 0:30:30.000
<v Speaker 2>he believes that he's got a special idea here. He

0:30:30.120 --> 0:30:32.040
<v Speaker 2>thinks that he may well be able to turn the

0:30:32.160 --> 0:30:35.640
<v Speaker 2>situation from people ignoring him at the polls like they

0:30:35.640 --> 0:30:37.880
<v Speaker 2>did at a buy election in a safe Labor seat

0:30:38.080 --> 0:30:42.360
<v Speaker 2>a few months ago, into holding onto power. Why because

0:30:42.760 --> 0:30:46.719
<v Speaker 2>one thousand dollars is coming your way via credits when

0:30:46.840 --> 0:30:49.520
<v Speaker 2>electricity companies, or as the Treasurer said, if you fill

0:30:49.520 --> 0:30:50.880
<v Speaker 2>out this form and push it that way, you may

0:30:50.960 --> 0:30:53.000
<v Speaker 2>end up with a thousand dollars in your pocket. So

0:30:53.400 --> 0:30:55.320
<v Speaker 2>I asked the question. Then I repeat it, now, can

0:30:55.360 --> 0:30:56.440
<v Speaker 2>you buy an election?

0:30:57.480 --> 0:30:57.600
<v Speaker 10>Now?

0:30:57.640 --> 0:30:59.600
<v Speaker 2>I don't think the people of Queensland are that stupid

0:30:59.640 --> 0:31:01.720
<v Speaker 2>at all. I think that they would take the money

0:31:01.760 --> 0:31:04.400
<v Speaker 2>it still vote the other way. But the unions are

0:31:04.400 --> 0:31:08.680
<v Speaker 2>doing their bit to try to change the narrative that

0:31:08.720 --> 0:31:11.960
<v Speaker 2>they've already bottomed out. And unions, including one that is

0:31:12.120 --> 0:31:14.560
<v Speaker 2>very close to Stephen Miles, has put out a pole

0:31:14.960 --> 0:31:17.640
<v Speaker 2>and it got headlines and it suggested that the Labour

0:31:17.640 --> 0:31:20.600
<v Speaker 2>Party's vote is coming up as a result of, among

0:31:20.640 --> 0:31:23.960
<v Speaker 2>other things, the one thousand dollars payment. But this is

0:31:23.960 --> 0:31:26.400
<v Speaker 2>a pile which is paid for by a union that

0:31:26.520 --> 0:31:29.160
<v Speaker 2>is pro labor. It shows Labour's vote is up by

0:31:29.200 --> 0:31:32.320
<v Speaker 2>three percent, it shows everyone else's vote is down, but

0:31:32.360 --> 0:31:36.160
<v Speaker 2>it also shows sixteen percent of people are undecided. So

0:31:36.240 --> 0:31:40.000
<v Speaker 2>I reckon this pile had a lot of wish and

0:31:40.040 --> 0:31:41.520
<v Speaker 2>a lot of hope, and a lot of leaning and

0:31:41.520 --> 0:31:43.360
<v Speaker 2>a lot of pushing to get to where they wanted.

0:31:43.400 --> 0:31:45.160
<v Speaker 2>But they got a headline out of it. And if

0:31:45.160 --> 0:31:48.080
<v Speaker 2>they got a headline out of it, well that's the

0:31:48.120 --> 0:31:51.440
<v Speaker 2>whole point of politics, to try to change the narrative,

0:31:52.840 --> 0:31:54.520
<v Speaker 2>all right, let's get into the debate right now. We

0:31:54.560 --> 0:31:56.320
<v Speaker 2>will do so in a moment's time. No loooks, no

0:31:56.440 --> 0:31:58.920
<v Speaker 2>left this on Sunday night, looking forward to James Ashby

0:31:58.960 --> 0:32:01.120
<v Speaker 2>in a moment or two time. Also, what is your

0:32:01.120 --> 0:32:03.320
<v Speaker 2>bold prediction for the weak ahead? Jump onto the socials

0:32:03.320 --> 0:32:06.160
<v Speaker 2>Philip Thompson joints us from Canberra as well as things

0:32:06.160 --> 0:32:08.680
<v Speaker 2>now start to circle the Prime Minister's office not just

0:32:08.720 --> 0:32:17.000
<v Speaker 2>that idiot Andrew Giles Monast. Thank you so much for watching,

0:32:17.040 --> 0:32:19.120
<v Speaker 2>and thank you for the very patient waitings of none

0:32:19.200 --> 0:32:21.120
<v Speaker 2>other than the wonderful James Ashby, who was of course

0:32:21.200 --> 0:32:23.840
<v Speaker 2>running for the seat of Keppel and the upcoming Queensland election.

0:32:23.880 --> 0:32:25.280
<v Speaker 2>Get rid of the government, get rid of the government

0:32:25.320 --> 0:32:27.720
<v Speaker 2>and our old libertarian mate Christy Abram the single best

0:32:27.720 --> 0:32:29.760
<v Speaker 2>thing to come out of the Dunkley by election. Love

0:32:29.840 --> 0:32:34.280
<v Speaker 2>to see you rock stars, all right? So the Trump star, James,

0:32:34.920 --> 0:32:37.720
<v Speaker 2>the former President's been on Fox News today. I'll show

0:32:37.720 --> 0:32:39.160
<v Speaker 2>you a grab it him in a second. But just

0:32:39.240 --> 0:32:41.760
<v Speaker 2>your thoughts on plenty I had to say before or

0:32:41.800 --> 0:32:43.200
<v Speaker 2>what you're thinking a couple of days.

0:32:43.000 --> 0:32:46.200
<v Speaker 1>After, mate, You're right across this.

0:32:47.040 --> 0:32:49.120
<v Speaker 16>Yeah, I love the idea of the Secret Service having

0:32:49.120 --> 0:32:51.080
<v Speaker 16>to go out of prison with him. I've just got

0:32:51.080 --> 0:32:53.400
<v Speaker 16>this funny feeling. I'd love to see the guest list

0:32:53.440 --> 0:32:56.360
<v Speaker 16>of who goes and visits him in prison. You never

0:32:56.400 --> 0:32:58.440
<v Speaker 16>know it might actually bring back. Do you remember how

0:32:58.480 --> 0:33:00.360
<v Speaker 16>Johnny Cash used to go out of the prison system

0:33:00.360 --> 0:33:02.960
<v Speaker 16>and play to the to the prisoners.

0:33:03.880 --> 0:33:04.960
<v Speaker 1>A whole new revival.

0:33:04.960 --> 0:33:06.880
<v Speaker 16>Could you imagine which artists would come and play for

0:33:06.880 --> 0:33:07.640
<v Speaker 16>Trumpet prison?

0:33:07.840 --> 0:33:10.640
<v Speaker 1>Imagine something that's really care To be honest.

0:33:10.600 --> 0:33:13.520
<v Speaker 2>San Quentin, I hate every inchview you what a great

0:33:13.560 --> 0:33:16.880
<v Speaker 2>song and Foalsham Prison Blues exactly. Kristen, how do you

0:33:16.920 --> 0:33:17.600
<v Speaker 2>feel about it?

0:33:20.080 --> 0:33:22.080
<v Speaker 17>Look, I'm gonna have to break it down with you, Paul.

0:33:22.280 --> 0:33:22.360
<v Speaker 1>So.

0:33:22.520 --> 0:33:24.560
<v Speaker 17>I don't know how it's going to impact the polls.

0:33:24.680 --> 0:33:31.880
<v Speaker 17>But so he's been convicted and it wasn't a defamation case,

0:33:32.000 --> 0:33:35.400
<v Speaker 17>it wasn't a harassment case. But Stormy Daniels has turned

0:33:35.440 --> 0:33:38.560
<v Speaker 17>around and said she feels as though she's been vindicated

0:33:38.600 --> 0:33:41.600
<v Speaker 17>by the guilty result. I don't understand what she feels

0:33:41.680 --> 0:33:44.960
<v Speaker 17>vindicated from, because to me, it's a stormy and a teacup.

0:33:46.800 --> 0:33:49.400
<v Speaker 2>Well said, because remember the whole point of this, right,

0:33:49.640 --> 0:33:53.560
<v Speaker 2>it wasn't did they or didn't they? Irrelevant? Right, it

0:33:53.640 --> 0:33:56.160
<v Speaker 2>wasn't was there an NDA not illegal? Right? It was

0:33:56.200 --> 0:33:59.040
<v Speaker 2>all about how it was put into the books. The

0:33:59.040 --> 0:34:02.360
<v Speaker 2>bookkeeper anyway, won't bore them, the bookkeeper. They didn't call

0:34:02.440 --> 0:34:05.160
<v Speaker 2>it right, they didn't call the federal elections people say, okay,

0:34:05.360 --> 0:34:07.080
<v Speaker 2>we'll all see what happens. For his part, here is

0:34:07.120 --> 0:34:09.240
<v Speaker 2>what Donald Trump had to say today on Fox News.

0:34:10.800 --> 0:34:13.000
<v Speaker 13>Well, look, you know, I'm fighting for the Constitution. I'm

0:34:13.000 --> 0:34:15.080
<v Speaker 13>fighting for the same thing that you three are. Watch

0:34:15.080 --> 0:34:17.279
<v Speaker 13>you all the time, and same thing that you do.

0:34:17.320 --> 0:34:20.960
<v Speaker 13>You fight for freedom, you fight for your country. These

0:34:21.000 --> 0:34:23.880
<v Speaker 13>people are sick. They're sick, they're deranged.

0:34:24.600 --> 0:34:24.799
<v Speaker 2>You know.

0:34:24.800 --> 0:34:27.560
<v Speaker 13>I talk about the enemy on the outside and the

0:34:27.680 --> 0:34:28.440
<v Speaker 13>enemy from within.

0:34:29.000 --> 0:34:30.880
<v Speaker 2>See if Russia, you have China, but if you have.

0:34:30.880 --> 0:34:34.120
<v Speaker 13>A smart president, you always handle them quite easily. Actually

0:34:34.200 --> 0:34:37.080
<v Speaker 13>we have a lot of advantages. But they're the enemy

0:34:37.080 --> 0:34:39.640
<v Speaker 13>from within. They are doing damage to this country.

0:34:40.480 --> 0:34:40.719
<v Speaker 3>All right.

0:34:40.800 --> 0:34:44.319
<v Speaker 2>Let's go back to Australia and Order ninety nine, the

0:34:44.440 --> 0:34:46.960
<v Speaker 2>fact that the government is changing it. But no, we

0:34:47.000 --> 0:34:49.400
<v Speaker 2>didn't make a mistake at all. Blame every and anyone

0:34:49.400 --> 0:34:51.960
<v Speaker 2>they possibly could in every way. It's all now about

0:34:52.000 --> 0:34:54.200
<v Speaker 2>the Prime Minister Andrew Clenell's reporting this morning here on

0:34:54.239 --> 0:34:56.880
<v Speaker 2>Sky News was that the Prime Minister's department and they

0:34:56.960 --> 0:34:59.200
<v Speaker 2>don't think do things just off on their own. Well,

0:34:59.239 --> 0:35:01.560
<v Speaker 2>they were doing everything could to keep people guilty of

0:35:01.600 --> 0:35:04.840
<v Speaker 2>crimes in Australia who should have been been ascending to

0:35:04.920 --> 0:35:07.600
<v Speaker 2>New Zealand. That ended up being the policy with Direction

0:35:07.719 --> 0:35:12.000
<v Speaker 2>ninety nine. James dear friend of mine said, look, I

0:35:12.080 --> 0:35:14.320
<v Speaker 2>get it, but I don't care and no one cares.

0:35:15.160 --> 0:35:17.479
<v Speaker 2>But I don't think that's the case. Been front page

0:35:17.560 --> 0:35:20.120
<v Speaker 2>news even in lefty media for some time. Do you

0:35:20.160 --> 0:35:22.319
<v Speaker 2>think people care? And do you think people will now

0:35:22.400 --> 0:35:25.440
<v Speaker 2>care even more that the PM's fingers are even more

0:35:25.440 --> 0:35:26.120
<v Speaker 2>in this part?

0:35:28.000 --> 0:35:29.480
<v Speaker 16>Yeah, I think this will be the undoing of the

0:35:29.480 --> 0:35:32.560
<v Speaker 16>Prime Minister. Billy McMahon was always known as well. It's

0:35:32.600 --> 0:35:34.480
<v Speaker 16>always been said that he was the worst prime minister

0:35:34.560 --> 0:35:36.960
<v Speaker 16>this country has ever had. Well, I've got news for Billy.

0:35:37.360 --> 0:35:40.799
<v Speaker 16>His family caressed easy. There is a new leader of

0:35:40.920 --> 0:35:43.680
<v Speaker 16>this country that's going to take that mantle piece very quickly.

0:35:44.760 --> 0:35:46.840
<v Speaker 16>That's the truth of the matter. People have had a

0:35:46.840 --> 0:35:50.120
<v Speaker 16>gutful of the fact that we are not only putting

0:35:50.200 --> 0:35:52.759
<v Speaker 16>up with people from other countries coming in here and

0:35:52.800 --> 0:35:56.920
<v Speaker 16>committing penous crimes at the expense of Australians, but now

0:35:56.920 --> 0:35:59.840
<v Speaker 16>we're having to keep them here as well. It's not washing.

0:36:00.360 --> 0:36:02.480
<v Speaker 16>They've just got to get rid of Direction ninety nine.

0:36:02.760 --> 0:36:04.480
<v Speaker 16>Don't read jigg it, just get rid of it. It's

0:36:04.480 --> 0:36:07.120
<v Speaker 16>that easy. Run a red market through it and get

0:36:07.160 --> 0:36:08.479
<v Speaker 16>it gone well.

0:36:08.520 --> 0:36:10.640
<v Speaker 2>In the same way the Labor Party had to learn

0:36:10.680 --> 0:36:13.000
<v Speaker 2>the lessons about boat turnbacks, they now have to learn

0:36:13.040 --> 0:36:15.840
<v Speaker 2>their lesson about this, which is the system worked. It

0:36:15.920 --> 0:36:17.880
<v Speaker 2>worked very well, no need to change it, but of

0:36:17.880 --> 0:36:20.959
<v Speaker 2>course they do. Here is James Patterson on our ears

0:36:20.960 --> 0:36:21.759
<v Speaker 2>speaking about all this.

0:36:23.000 --> 0:36:25.960
<v Speaker 16>The Prime Minister should take responsibility and the least he

0:36:26.040 --> 0:36:28.439
<v Speaker 16>can do is Sacky's immigration minister, but he should also

0:36:28.440 --> 0:36:30.360
<v Speaker 16>take personal responsibility.

0:36:29.640 --> 0:36:33.880
<v Speaker 2>Here kristin same question. Is this significant? Is this a

0:36:33.920 --> 0:36:36.200
<v Speaker 2>red line being crossed? Or is this the don't care?

0:36:38.719 --> 0:36:42.040
<v Speaker 17>The bock has to stop somewhere. I think people definitely care,

0:36:42.239 --> 0:36:46.439
<v Speaker 17>because it's impacting our society by keeping these criminals here.

0:36:47.160 --> 0:36:50.400
<v Speaker 17>If if it was good enough for Australia's heart throbs

0:36:50.520 --> 0:36:54.080
<v Speaker 17>father to get deported Dustin Martin's father to get deported

0:36:54.120 --> 0:36:56.840
<v Speaker 17>back to New Zealand, I agree with James, draw a

0:36:56.880 --> 0:36:58.399
<v Speaker 17>red line through it. Get rid of it.

0:36:59.040 --> 0:37:01.480
<v Speaker 2>Are you at Richmond fan? Are you are Tigers fan?

0:37:01.520 --> 0:37:06.560
<v Speaker 2>And therefore not, I've got one on our team and

0:37:06.600 --> 0:37:08.840
<v Speaker 2>I nothing. They can't do it. He dust Anyway, I

0:37:08.880 --> 0:37:13.440
<v Speaker 2>get it. Now, let's talk about Josh, Josh, Fridenburg, James again,

0:37:13.880 --> 0:37:16.719
<v Speaker 2>the redistribution, and let's not bore everyone, but basically, some

0:37:16.840 --> 0:37:18.719
<v Speaker 2>things become a little more liberal, a little more green,

0:37:18.760 --> 0:37:21.560
<v Speaker 2>a little more labor. Couyong becomes a little bit more liberal,

0:37:21.840 --> 0:37:24.200
<v Speaker 2>which Josh Brodenberg, if you're sitting in there thinking I

0:37:24.200 --> 0:37:26.880
<v Speaker 2>could win a rematch, my suggestion is just to him

0:37:26.920 --> 0:37:30.239
<v Speaker 2>as a bloke, right, which is state Goldman, Sachs earn

0:37:30.320 --> 0:37:32.200
<v Speaker 2>lots of money. See what happens when it comes to

0:37:32.280 --> 0:37:33.920
<v Speaker 2>the new candidate. See what happens in a couple of

0:37:33.960 --> 0:37:36.719
<v Speaker 2>years time. But what's your sense in and around whether

0:37:36.719 --> 0:37:38.120
<v Speaker 2>Fredenburg should return to the pub?

0:37:39.840 --> 0:37:42.000
<v Speaker 16>I never got that sense from Josh, to be honest,

0:37:42.040 --> 0:37:44.239
<v Speaker 16>for all the years that we worked closely with him,

0:37:44.320 --> 0:37:46.960
<v Speaker 16>when we had that balance of power within the Senate,

0:37:47.040 --> 0:37:50.360
<v Speaker 16>Josh was always somebody that was in politics for the

0:37:50.440 --> 0:37:53.360
<v Speaker 16>right reasons. Wasn't about the money. So you can cross

0:37:53.400 --> 0:37:56.400
<v Speaker 16>that off the list here. And Mattias Corman. I'd have

0:37:56.440 --> 0:37:59.360
<v Speaker 16>to say we're two of the best operators in that parliament.

0:37:59.400 --> 0:38:02.960
<v Speaker 16>Now Mattis was the best, Josh was the second best.

0:38:03.120 --> 0:38:06.279
<v Speaker 16>What Peter Dutton lacks is somebody like at Josh Fredenberg

0:38:06.400 --> 0:38:08.879
<v Speaker 16>behind the scenes that can actually pull the.

0:38:08.840 --> 0:38:09.920
<v Speaker 1>Liberal Party together.

0:38:10.680 --> 0:38:13.160
<v Speaker 16>Josh is more moderate than what Peter Dutton is, so

0:38:13.200 --> 0:38:15.920
<v Speaker 16>he has this charm and ability. He's got a very

0:38:15.960 --> 0:38:19.600
<v Speaker 16>good working relationship with both sides within the Liberals and

0:38:19.680 --> 0:38:22.040
<v Speaker 16>also too with the Nationals.

0:38:22.040 --> 0:38:23.920
<v Speaker 1>Now where I see.

0:38:23.719 --> 0:38:27.560
<v Speaker 16>A problem here is Josh becomes a distraction for Peter

0:38:27.640 --> 0:38:30.839
<v Speaker 16>Dutton because there's always going to be that media speculation

0:38:30.920 --> 0:38:32.879
<v Speaker 16>that Josh is only coming back for the top job,

0:38:32.920 --> 0:38:35.200
<v Speaker 16>because let's face it, Josh's ambitious. Of course, it was

0:38:35.280 --> 0:38:38.800
<v Speaker 16>very good treasurer and I think he'd be a great

0:38:38.840 --> 0:38:42.040
<v Speaker 16>fallback position as Prime Minister material as well for the country.

0:38:42.360 --> 0:38:44.200
<v Speaker 1>But it will act as a distraction.

0:38:44.360 --> 0:38:46.399
<v Speaker 16>So these are the questions that the Liberal Party will

0:38:46.440 --> 0:38:48.400
<v Speaker 16>have to face, These questions that Josh will have to

0:38:48.440 --> 0:38:50.960
<v Speaker 16>face as well. And like you say, is it worth

0:38:51.080 --> 0:38:53.319
<v Speaker 16>an extra few years on the sideline and come back

0:38:53.400 --> 0:38:56.040
<v Speaker 16>later so that there are no distractions and so that

0:38:56.080 --> 0:38:59.200
<v Speaker 16>Peter Dutton can actually get in there and destroy Labor

0:38:59.280 --> 0:39:00.080
<v Speaker 16>at this next.

0:39:00.600 --> 0:39:03.200
<v Speaker 2>Look, I'm going to be creative too here, Kristin, which is,

0:39:03.200 --> 0:39:05.080
<v Speaker 2>if he does come back, Okay, cool, Let's just do

0:39:05.160 --> 0:39:07.200
<v Speaker 2>what the Labour Party did with Bob Hawk, which was

0:39:07.280 --> 0:39:09.640
<v Speaker 2>essentially run him as the opposition leader without a seat.

0:39:10.000 --> 0:39:12.160
<v Speaker 2>Why not run him as the shadow treasurer without a

0:39:12.200 --> 0:39:15.200
<v Speaker 2>seat to try to take on the economic conversation which

0:39:15.200 --> 0:39:17.560
<v Speaker 2>clearly will be huge at the next election.

0:39:21.200 --> 0:39:24.920
<v Speaker 17>Well, selfishly, as a Victorian, what I actually want is

0:39:25.280 --> 0:39:27.520
<v Speaker 17>for him to come to state politics here in Victoria,

0:39:27.600 --> 0:39:31.920
<v Speaker 17>because we don't have an opposition here in Victoria. Get

0:39:32.000 --> 0:39:35.480
<v Speaker 17>rid of John Persudo and put Josh Freinberg in to

0:39:35.640 --> 0:39:39.479
<v Speaker 17>lead a unleadable ship at the moment, because the only

0:39:39.480 --> 0:39:42.160
<v Speaker 17>opposition that we have right now is David Limbrick, and

0:39:42.320 --> 0:39:45.799
<v Speaker 17>we actually need better opposition to labor machine down here.

0:39:46.160 --> 0:39:48.480
<v Speaker 2>Ken. I love that bloke, Love David limbrig and love

0:39:48.480 --> 0:39:50.360
<v Speaker 2>the work that he's doing in the Upper House. I

0:39:50.400 --> 0:39:52.360
<v Speaker 2>hope that at some important time you get the opportunity

0:39:52.400 --> 0:39:55.880
<v Speaker 2>to join him as well. My friend, All right now, James,

0:39:56.320 --> 0:39:58.239
<v Speaker 2>you think long and hard about politics, as do I

0:39:58.280 --> 0:40:00.760
<v Speaker 2>ask does Kristen of course, which is about the future

0:40:00.760 --> 0:40:02.600
<v Speaker 2>and where it goes. We keep being told that the

0:40:02.600 --> 0:40:04.880
<v Speaker 2>future is further to the left and there'll be no

0:40:05.000 --> 0:40:07.839
<v Speaker 2>further movement towards the right, all the rest of it.

0:40:08.040 --> 0:40:10.880
<v Speaker 2>Yet another giant piece of analysis comes out suggesting you

0:40:11.040 --> 0:40:13.719
<v Speaker 2>pack up your bags if you're anyone but Labor or

0:40:13.760 --> 0:40:16.439
<v Speaker 2>the Greens, because the future there is no vote for you.

0:40:20.560 --> 0:40:24.719
<v Speaker 16>Yeah, the Greens are a scary concept to deal with

0:40:24.880 --> 0:40:27.560
<v Speaker 16>in the mere fact that they are increasing in their vote,

0:40:27.920 --> 0:40:29.120
<v Speaker 16>but I think a lot of that has to do

0:40:29.160 --> 0:40:31.520
<v Speaker 16>with the fact that many Australians are disappointed with the

0:40:31.520 --> 0:40:34.279
<v Speaker 16>two major parties. Both Labor and the Coalition are only

0:40:34.360 --> 0:40:37.759
<v Speaker 16>sort of achieving in those thirty percent targets, and that's

0:40:37.800 --> 0:40:40.920
<v Speaker 16>why the Greens seem to be growing in popularity. That's

0:40:40.960 --> 0:40:43.600
<v Speaker 16>why other cross bench parties like One Nation as well

0:40:43.719 --> 0:40:48.239
<v Speaker 16>have seen the LDP, the Catters, They've all seen considerable

0:40:48.239 --> 0:40:50.600
<v Speaker 16>support over the last couple of years because there is

0:40:50.640 --> 0:40:51.480
<v Speaker 16>that disappointment.

0:40:52.000 --> 0:40:54.640
<v Speaker 1>And yes, they do chase that Green vote.

0:40:54.640 --> 0:40:58.480
<v Speaker 16>But what people miss about the Greens is they're often hypocrites.

0:40:58.680 --> 0:41:02.320
<v Speaker 16>They sit in that chamber and slag off against.

0:41:02.400 --> 0:41:05.200
<v Speaker 1>Billionaires and millionaires, and yet.

0:41:05.480 --> 0:41:07.640
<v Speaker 16>For the majority of those Greens sitting in our Senate

0:41:07.680 --> 0:41:11.840
<v Speaker 16>and Lower House multiple homes. They certainly don't mind renting

0:41:11.840 --> 0:41:15.600
<v Speaker 16>them out at top dollar. They want open borders. They're

0:41:15.640 --> 0:41:22.040
<v Speaker 16>actually very very frightening from a communist perspective. That is

0:41:22.040 --> 0:41:24.359
<v Speaker 16>the path they want to take Australia. And I think

0:41:24.440 --> 0:41:26.760
<v Speaker 16>that if people open their eyes and if the media

0:41:26.840 --> 0:41:29.640
<v Speaker 16>actually pushed back against the Greens on some of their policy,

0:41:30.000 --> 0:41:31.320
<v Speaker 16>you'd actually see them break.

0:41:31.760 --> 0:41:34.440
<v Speaker 1>And I think it's incumbent on the media out there.

0:41:34.480 --> 0:41:36.640
<v Speaker 16>They've got to start treating the Greens as though they

0:41:36.640 --> 0:41:40.120
<v Speaker 16>are a serious party, because the media, for some reason

0:41:40.360 --> 0:41:42.439
<v Speaker 16>just tend to go, oh, it's just the Greens, don't

0:41:42.440 --> 0:41:46.160
<v Speaker 16>worry about it. There's never any harsh questions asked of

0:41:46.200 --> 0:41:46.800
<v Speaker 16>their policy.

0:41:46.880 --> 0:41:48.520
<v Speaker 2>Well, I would suggest it's because many of the people

0:41:48.520 --> 0:41:51.439
<v Speaker 2>in the gallery actually vote for them. But also it's

0:41:51.600 --> 0:41:54.160
<v Speaker 2>just the idea that some of the things that have

0:41:54.239 --> 0:41:58.279
<v Speaker 2>been said the racial staff that they say yet labor, No,

0:41:58.760 --> 0:42:01.560
<v Speaker 2>we couldn't possibly put them lower than one nation, couldn't

0:42:01.560 --> 0:42:05.080
<v Speaker 2>possibly put them last. That of course, where the liberals

0:42:05.080 --> 0:42:06.840
<v Speaker 2>have to go Christian, no doubt you would think the

0:42:06.840 --> 0:42:08.920
<v Speaker 2>future is libertarianism't But I'm out of time, so I'm

0:42:08.920 --> 0:42:10.719
<v Speaker 2>going to ask you, what is your bold prediction for

0:42:10.760 --> 0:42:11.480
<v Speaker 2>the week ahead.

0:42:13.320 --> 0:42:17.440
<v Speaker 17>Oh, it's a pretty pretty grim prediction, Paul. So national

0:42:17.440 --> 0:42:21.520
<v Speaker 17>minimum wage will get announced tomorrow. I'm predicting it's going

0:42:21.520 --> 0:42:24.959
<v Speaker 17>to be between a five percent and five point five

0:42:25.040 --> 0:42:28.880
<v Speaker 17>percent increase, which as a libertarian and a HR professional,

0:42:28.920 --> 0:42:31.759
<v Speaker 17>I will say is going to have devastating impacts on

0:42:32.000 --> 0:42:35.000
<v Speaker 17>our small businesses and there will be job losses. I

0:42:35.040 --> 0:42:38.040
<v Speaker 17>hope that I'm wrong, but that is, unfortunately my prediction.

0:42:38.640 --> 0:42:40.360
<v Speaker 2>That's it. I like it. I like it. I like

0:42:40.400 --> 0:42:41.799
<v Speaker 2>the nerdy predictions. I love this stuff.

0:42:41.880 --> 0:42:46.439
<v Speaker 16>James, you, oh my Giles will go nowhere again this week.

0:42:46.520 --> 0:42:50.640
<v Speaker 16>He's safe as houses mate, so labor will continue protecting him.

0:42:50.680 --> 0:42:52.240
<v Speaker 1>It's it's not their fault.

0:42:52.280 --> 0:42:54.520
<v Speaker 2>Remember, it's never never never. It's very trumpy and off

0:42:54.520 --> 0:42:56.600
<v Speaker 2>the missing them. Thank you guys, do appreciate We'll see

0:42:56.600 --> 0:42:58.960
<v Speaker 2>you again next week. Thank you very much. To appreciate it.

0:42:59.239 --> 0:43:02.399
<v Speaker 2>None other than Abraham and of course James Ashby. I'm

0:43:02.440 --> 0:43:04.120
<v Speaker 2>sure you follow them all on socials, Quid break Back

0:43:04.160 --> 0:43:07.319
<v Speaker 2>with More, Philip Thompson about that idiot Andrew Giles, and

0:43:07.360 --> 0:43:14.400
<v Speaker 2>so much more. Oh so good to be able to

0:43:14.400 --> 0:43:16.200
<v Speaker 2>talk to one of our favorites in the Parliament, none

0:43:16.200 --> 0:43:18.360
<v Speaker 2>of them. The Great Phil Thompson, of course, represents the

0:43:18.400 --> 0:43:20.719
<v Speaker 2>good people have heard. He's in the shadow ministry as well.

0:43:20.760 --> 0:43:21.720
<v Speaker 2>Love you to see you, my friend.

0:43:23.760 --> 0:43:24.680
<v Speaker 18>Good to see you, mate.

0:43:24.960 --> 0:43:27.440
<v Speaker 2>So let's talk about Andrew Giles. Don't you love the

0:43:27.480 --> 0:43:30.160
<v Speaker 2>spin out of the government. We don't make mistakes, We

0:43:30.320 --> 0:43:34.120
<v Speaker 2>just do exactly the opposite of what we changed in

0:43:34.200 --> 0:43:36.000
<v Speaker 2>the rules in and around immigration.

0:43:39.440 --> 0:43:39.640
<v Speaker 1>Mate.

0:43:39.680 --> 0:43:43.800
<v Speaker 18>He is a hopeless minister. I have never seen anything

0:43:44.000 --> 0:43:47.800
<v Speaker 18>so incompetent in my life than watching Andrew Giles fumble

0:43:47.840 --> 0:43:52.200
<v Speaker 18>around with the immigration portfolio. And as we saw last week,

0:43:52.280 --> 0:43:55.160
<v Speaker 18>you had the Prime Minister throw a hospital pass and

0:43:55.719 --> 0:43:58.719
<v Speaker 18>put him straight under the bus. He is not fit

0:43:58.840 --> 0:44:02.400
<v Speaker 18>to be a minister. He's not fit to represent the

0:44:02.440 --> 0:44:05.839
<v Speaker 18>immigration portfolio. And if the Prime Minister is not going

0:44:05.880 --> 0:44:09.600
<v Speaker 18>to sack him, then the minister should stand up tomorrow

0:44:09.600 --> 0:44:12.520
<v Speaker 18>morning and resign because he is putting people in the

0:44:12.520 --> 0:44:13.439
<v Speaker 18>community at risk.

0:44:13.719 --> 0:44:16.319
<v Speaker 2>What about this garbage that he says, Oh, no, we've

0:44:16.320 --> 0:44:18.680
<v Speaker 2>been keeping people safe. Sure we don't put ankle bracelets

0:44:18.719 --> 0:44:22.160
<v Speaker 2>on them, but we've got drones flying around to take

0:44:22.200 --> 0:44:24.279
<v Speaker 2>photos of whether they're in the backyard or not.

0:44:27.880 --> 0:44:32.560
<v Speaker 18>Yeah, and we've heard from that being debunked already. We

0:44:32.640 --> 0:44:36.200
<v Speaker 18>know that this minister has no idea what's going on

0:44:36.239 --> 0:44:39.839
<v Speaker 18>in his portfolio. He's released all these hardened criminals. There's

0:44:39.840 --> 0:44:43.440
<v Speaker 18>pedophiles walking the street, murderers and rapers, and instead of

0:44:43.640 --> 0:44:45.640
<v Speaker 18>kicking them out of the country or locking them back up.

0:44:45.920 --> 0:44:48.799
<v Speaker 18>Remember we got recalled at the end of last year

0:44:48.840 --> 0:44:53.160
<v Speaker 18>to pass emergency powers so we could prevent it, lock

0:44:53.239 --> 0:44:56.120
<v Speaker 18>people up and keep them detained so we didn't have

0:44:56.160 --> 0:44:58.120
<v Speaker 18>them walking around the street. But none of that's been

0:44:58.160 --> 0:45:00.720
<v Speaker 18>an actor. None of that's happened. It was all smoke

0:45:00.760 --> 0:45:03.600
<v Speaker 18>and mirrors. And if you have these dangerous criminals walking

0:45:03.600 --> 0:45:06.239
<v Speaker 18>around where you live, where I live, where people in

0:45:06.280 --> 0:45:09.799
<v Speaker 18>the community, going to parks where kids are playing, and

0:45:09.840 --> 0:45:13.000
<v Speaker 18>they're not being monitored, these are dangers to our society.

0:45:13.400 --> 0:45:15.799
<v Speaker 18>And for him to stand up and try and get

0:45:16.200 --> 0:45:19.719
<v Speaker 18>all tough in Parliament and say I'm doing what the

0:45:19.800 --> 0:45:21.440
<v Speaker 18>letter of the law, and he makes all this stuff

0:45:21.520 --> 0:45:24.440
<v Speaker 18>up and it's not truthful. He should just stand up

0:45:24.480 --> 0:45:27.120
<v Speaker 18>and say I'm sorry for what has happened. It is

0:45:27.200 --> 0:45:30.160
<v Speaker 18>his fault and he should resign and the Prime Minister

0:45:30.200 --> 0:45:32.640
<v Speaker 18>should find where his backbone isn't sack him, and if

0:45:32.680 --> 0:45:34.160
<v Speaker 18>he's not willing to do it, then maybe he should

0:45:34.280 --> 0:45:34.879
<v Speaker 18>have the top job.

0:45:35.360 --> 0:45:38.280
<v Speaker 2>I'm with you completely. Let's talk about China, because today

0:45:38.280 --> 0:45:42.279
<v Speaker 2>the Defense Ministar, after a meeting in Singapore, says, I

0:45:42.320 --> 0:45:44.640
<v Speaker 2>definitely talk to the Chinese about the stuff they've been doing,

0:45:44.640 --> 0:45:48.719
<v Speaker 2>particularly the helicopters. But come on, let's also deal with

0:45:48.760 --> 0:45:51.000
<v Speaker 2>the reality that last week. The only reason we're hearing

0:45:51.000 --> 0:45:52.680
<v Speaker 2>all of this stuff now is because they got caught

0:45:52.719 --> 0:45:56.000
<v Speaker 2>red handed that despite speaking to every possible level, they

0:45:56.000 --> 0:45:59.400
<v Speaker 2>didn't actually bother to pick up the phone. Do you

0:45:59.480 --> 0:46:03.239
<v Speaker 2>believe that there was any sort of verbal pull out

0:46:03.239 --> 0:46:06.000
<v Speaker 2>of China in Singapore by Richard Miles.

0:46:08.920 --> 0:46:11.719
<v Speaker 18>I think Richard Miles has failed the Australian Defense Force.

0:46:11.760 --> 0:46:15.600
<v Speaker 18>The deputy Prime Minister, part time Defense Force minister, has

0:46:15.640 --> 0:46:18.680
<v Speaker 18>failed on two different occasions. The first one when we

0:46:18.719 --> 0:46:22.720
<v Speaker 18>had navy divers in the water in a Chinese ship

0:46:22.800 --> 0:46:26.320
<v Speaker 18>use sonar which injured our people. He didn't do anything,

0:46:26.360 --> 0:46:29.080
<v Speaker 18>then didn't stand up, didn't stand behind him, didn't back

0:46:29.120 --> 0:46:31.680
<v Speaker 18>them up and called China out for their bad behavior.

0:46:31.719 --> 0:46:33.960
<v Speaker 18>And then only a couple of days later the Prime

0:46:33.960 --> 0:46:36.520
<v Speaker 18>Minister met with Jijiping and he didn't raise it either.

0:46:36.840 --> 0:46:39.440
<v Speaker 18>And then fast forward a couple of months, we've got

0:46:40.280 --> 0:46:45.040
<v Speaker 18>a fighter jet, a Chinese fighter jet, firing flares at

0:46:45.080 --> 0:46:48.279
<v Speaker 18>an Australian Navy helicopter. If one of those flares hit

0:46:48.320 --> 0:46:51.440
<v Speaker 18>our helicopter, the experts have said that they may have

0:46:51.480 --> 0:46:54.520
<v Speaker 18>had to ditch the airframe. Now, if you have to

0:46:54.560 --> 0:46:57.239
<v Speaker 18>ditch an airframe over water, two things happen. It goes

0:46:57.320 --> 0:47:00.480
<v Speaker 18>upside down quickly and it sinks at six meters second,

0:47:00.880 --> 0:47:04.319
<v Speaker 18>So people were in Harmsuan could have been killed. Now

0:47:04.320 --> 0:47:06.719
<v Speaker 18>did we see the deputy Prime Minister and part time

0:47:06.760 --> 0:47:09.680
<v Speaker 18>Defense Minister stand up and call out jiujimp or call

0:47:09.719 --> 0:47:10.680
<v Speaker 18>out the defense Minister.

0:47:10.960 --> 0:47:11.600
<v Speaker 2>No, he didn't.

0:47:11.840 --> 0:47:12.720
<v Speaker 1>He ran and hid.

0:47:13.000 --> 0:47:17.000
<v Speaker 18>It's been twenty seven days since this incident. We've had

0:47:17.000 --> 0:47:19.359
<v Speaker 18>the leader of the opposition have to stand up and

0:47:19.440 --> 0:47:23.000
<v Speaker 18>call this out. We've had Andrew Hasty, the shadow Defense Minister,

0:47:23.040 --> 0:47:25.799
<v Speaker 18>and myself as his deputy, have to call this out.

0:47:25.880 --> 0:47:29.239
<v Speaker 18>We haven't seen him anywhere. And Mate, we heard that

0:47:29.480 --> 0:47:32.400
<v Speaker 18>he was going to give this speech because he briefed.

0:47:32.080 --> 0:47:32.840
<v Speaker 2>Out the media.

0:47:33.040 --> 0:47:35.000
<v Speaker 18>He probably briefed out his mates in China.

0:47:35.040 --> 0:47:35.960
<v Speaker 2>He's got form for that.

0:47:37.040 --> 0:47:38.880
<v Speaker 18>I don't think that this was real at all, And

0:47:38.920 --> 0:47:40.600
<v Speaker 18>to be honest, he should have done it twenty seven

0:47:40.640 --> 0:47:41.080
<v Speaker 18>days ago.

0:47:41.440 --> 0:47:44.279
<v Speaker 2>One hundred percent. God, I love you. So this is

0:47:44.280 --> 0:47:46.120
<v Speaker 2>exactly what we need, right, This is the steal in

0:47:46.120 --> 0:47:48.680
<v Speaker 2>the spine. We really need people like Andrew and people

0:47:48.680 --> 0:47:50.840
<v Speaker 2>like Phil on the side of defense, not this bloke,

0:47:51.040 --> 0:47:52.880
<v Speaker 2>this being the defense minister roll the tape.

0:47:53.760 --> 0:47:55.920
<v Speaker 19>We really want to have the most productive relationship that

0:47:55.960 --> 0:47:56.960
<v Speaker 19>we can have with China.

0:47:57.680 --> 0:47:58.759
<v Speaker 1>We want to be.

0:47:59.040 --> 0:48:03.920
<v Speaker 19>Sensible, professional, respectful. We definitely do not want to, you know,

0:48:03.960 --> 0:48:07.520
<v Speaker 19>gratuitously antagonize China. That's not what we're trying to do.

0:48:07.920 --> 0:48:11.080
<v Speaker 19>But at the same time, it is important that we

0:48:11.120 --> 0:48:12.600
<v Speaker 19>speak to our national interests.

0:48:13.640 --> 0:48:16.000
<v Speaker 2>Philip's the yabba yaba that does me. Look, I get it,

0:48:16.080 --> 0:48:20.319
<v Speaker 2>nobody wants to antagonize a country like China, but if

0:48:20.360 --> 0:48:23.160
<v Speaker 2>they're going to almost kill our people, yeah, we're going

0:48:23.239 --> 0:48:23.920
<v Speaker 2>to stand up.

0:48:26.640 --> 0:48:27.440
<v Speaker 1>Correct, correct.

0:48:27.480 --> 0:48:31.319
<v Speaker 18>And I think that the defenseman is a coward. I

0:48:31.360 --> 0:48:34.480
<v Speaker 18>remember hearing just a couple of weeks ago when something

0:48:34.520 --> 0:48:36.279
<v Speaker 18>similar as asked of him and he said, oh, well,

0:48:36.560 --> 0:48:40.200
<v Speaker 18>we'll agree where we can and disagree where we must.

0:48:40.480 --> 0:48:42.960
<v Speaker 18>Oh well, thanks genius, you really put the faith in

0:48:43.000 --> 0:48:46.000
<v Speaker 18>me and every other servicemen and women in the country

0:48:46.640 --> 0:48:49.760
<v Speaker 18>that you're the right person for the job. He clearly isn't,

0:48:50.239 --> 0:48:53.839
<v Speaker 18>and I think he hates his portfolio. He's too worried about,

0:48:53.880 --> 0:48:55.800
<v Speaker 18>you know, playing the back no One on the golf course.

0:48:55.840 --> 0:48:58.000
<v Speaker 18>Then he is about standing up for our brave men

0:48:58.040 --> 0:48:58.760
<v Speaker 18>and women who put.

0:48:58.600 --> 0:49:00.719
<v Speaker 2>On the interfal Ye bloody. Thank you Philip. Nice to

0:49:00.719 --> 0:49:02.440
<v Speaker 2>talk to you mate. All the best to you in

0:49:02.760 --> 0:49:05.520
<v Speaker 2>Camber this week and then back in beautiful Townsville next week.

0:49:05.520 --> 0:49:09.560
<v Speaker 2>All the best, mate, Thanks, thank you Philip Thompson there

0:49:09.680 --> 0:49:12.799
<v Speaker 2>because of course the Assistant Shadow Defense Minister, along with

0:49:12.960 --> 0:49:14.759
<v Speaker 2>many other things. But a very good man and very

0:49:14.760 --> 0:49:16.719
<v Speaker 2>pleas he's in their parliament. All right, that's our show

0:49:16.760 --> 0:49:18.319
<v Speaker 2>for tonight. The Royal Report coming up in a moment

0:49:18.440 --> 0:49:20.440
<v Speaker 2>or two time. Thank you very much for watching. The

0:49:20.480 --> 0:49:22.880
<v Speaker 2>conversation continues and if you want to see me emails

0:49:22.880 --> 0:49:25.320
<v Speaker 2>at any time, you know, Paulitskynews dot com dot you

0:49:25.400 --> 0:49:26.080
<v Speaker 2>see you tomorrow.