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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business News you can use.

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Speaker 1: A surprise jump in the unemployment rate opens the way

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Speaker 1: for an interest rate cut next month. Superannuation funds returned

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Speaker 1: more than ten percent for the last financial year, making

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Speaker 1: it three strong years in a row.

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Speaker 2: Plus.

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Speaker 1: How science is eradicating genetic diseases. Ostrak provides its hit

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Speaker 1: list of sectors it's keeping a close eye on, and

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Speaker 1: pandered diplomacy takes center stage on the Prime Minister's final

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Speaker 1: day in China. It's Friday, the eighteenth of July twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five. I'm Adam Lang and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 3: Good morning, Adam has always something for everyone.

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Speaker 2: This morning, it's a.

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Speaker 1: Smaugus board Sean and the main story this morning. The

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Speaker 1: unemployment rate has risen to its highest level in almost

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Speaker 1: four years, opening the way for an interest rate cut

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Speaker 1: when the Reserve Bank Board meets next month.

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Speaker 3: The unemployment rate hit four point three percent in June

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Speaker 3: from four point one percent in May. It is still low,

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Speaker 3: but there's an upward trend. According to the Australian Bureau

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Speaker 3: of Statistics. The last time the unemployment rate was this

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Speaker 3: high was during the COVID pandemic, although to be fair,

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Speaker 3: it did spend pretty much all of the pre pandemic

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Speaker 3: forty years above that level. There were just two thousand

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Speaker 3: new jobs created last month, world below expectations. The composition

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Speaker 3: was poor. Thirty eight thousand full time jobs were lost,

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Speaker 3: forty thousand part time roles were created. The net effect

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Speaker 3: those two thousand roles. If you dig into the numbers,

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Speaker 3: they suggest a broad weakening in the labor market, no

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Speaker 3: doubt about it. Annually, jobs growth is running at about

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Speaker 3: two percent, which is below the growth in the labor force. Also,

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Speaker 3: measures of underemployment have shifted higher. Having said all that,

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Speaker 3: the Reserve Bank is still worried that the labor market

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Speaker 3: is tight, and it is no doubt about that. The

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Speaker 3: Reserve Bank's worried high unit labor costs and subdued productivity

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Speaker 3: could stoke inflation again, and that's why it's been hesitant

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Speaker 3: to cut rates.

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Speaker 1: I'd sean boil it all down, all of that labor

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Speaker 1: market information. What does it mean for interest rates?

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Speaker 3: It is very, very very I go the three varies

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Speaker 3: the triple very likely that the Reserve Bank will cut rates

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Speaker 3: when it meets on the twelfth of August. Mind you,

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Speaker 3: we said that before the last meeting two weeks ago.

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Speaker 3: After that meeting, Governor Michelle Bullock stressed that the unexpected

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Speaker 3: pause in cutting rates was more about timing, not the

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Speaker 3: direction of rates. What we know is that underlying inflation

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Speaker 3: continues to moderate, Household demand is soft, and there's downside

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Speaker 3: risks from what's happening overseas, and the employment market is

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Speaker 3: doing pretty much what the Reserve Bank has forecast. The

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Speaker 3: main risk to a rate cut is a surprisingly high

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Speaker 3: inflation reading when the June quarter figures come out at

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Speaker 3: the end of the month. Now we have two of

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Speaker 3: those three months already, and it is unlikely to be

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Speaker 3: a surprisingly high figure. Judging by the financial market reaction

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Speaker 3: yesterday to the labor force figures, they think a rate

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Speaker 3: cut is coming. The Aussie dollar dropped immediately, falling under

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Speaker 3: sixty five US cents, and the ASX jumped. So, Adam,

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Speaker 3: I reckon just like I said two weeks ago, I

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Speaker 3: reckon a sure thing. Well not, there's no such thing

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Speaker 3: as a certainty in monetary policy or racing. However, certainly

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Speaker 3: hot favorite near certainty.

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Speaker 1: Well, you know, maybe you and ninety percent of economists

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Speaker 1: were on the same track, Sean and I was too,

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Speaker 1: so we weren't alone. Okay, So the share market rose yesterday.

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Speaker 1: That's after hitting a new high on Tuesday and then

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Speaker 1: it's worst day in months on Wednesday. Markets seemed to

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Speaker 1: be rather fickle at the moment.

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Speaker 3: When aren't they, Adam, When aren't they very true? They

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Speaker 3: are fickle, and I suppose why all this data matters

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Speaker 3: mostly move scene to reflect what's going on in the US. Yesterday,

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Speaker 3: the S and p ASX two hundred hit a record

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Speaker 3: closing high, up nearly one percent to eight thousand, six

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Speaker 3: hundred and thirty nine points. That came on back of

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Speaker 3: that lay before statum and hopes of a rate cut.

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Speaker 3: The banks and interstrate sensitive stocks did best. Commonwealth Bank

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Speaker 3: and and Zed, Westpac and Goodman Group all jumped more

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Speaker 3: than one percent. Transurban and Zero both up two percent,

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Speaker 3: while computer share finished three percent higher. The gold stocks

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Speaker 3: and retailers tended to underperform.

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Speaker 1: Sean and While we're talking market, superannuation funds have had

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Speaker 1: another very good financial year, with the median Growth fund

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Speaker 1: returning ten point five percent for the fiscal twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: five year. That's better than the previous two very good years,

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Speaker 1: and it means superannuation funds have now returned more than

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Speaker 1: thirty percent over three years.

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Speaker 3: Happy days. The Median growth fund has sixty eighty percent

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Speaker 3: of its portfolio invested in growth assets stuff like equities.

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Speaker 3: Thanks to a near fourteen percent rise in international equities

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Speaker 3: and a fourteen percent rise in local equities, growth funds

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Speaker 3: have done very, very well. Infrastructure is also a key

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Speaker 3: asset of growth funds. That asset class did well also,

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Speaker 3: while private equity gains were around nine and a half

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Speaker 3: percent according to chant West, more defensive assets such as

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Speaker 3: bonds had a pretty good year. Local bonds are up

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Speaker 3: nearly six seven percent, international bonds about five and a

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Speaker 3: half percent. Now, super is a long term investment, so

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Speaker 3: it's always better to think about that over the long

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Speaker 3: term ten years, let's say or more. Growth funds, according

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Speaker 3: to chant West, have returned seven point two percent per

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Speaker 3: annum over the past decade. High growth at eight point

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Speaker 3: four percent, more conservative balanced funds are at five point

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Speaker 3: nine percent. All in all, when you have a growth

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Speaker 3: rate of two three four percent, you were getting fantastic

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Speaker 3: real returns in your super and have been getting great

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Speaker 3: real returns in your super free years.

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Speaker 1: We'll have all of those details and more in the

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed newsletter this morning, So if you haven't already,

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Speaker 1: make sure you've signed up at Fearngreed dot com dot

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Speaker 1: au and we'll be back in a moment with the

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Speaker 1: rest of the day's business news.

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Speaker 2: Sean.

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Speaker 1: The Prime Minister Anthony Albanesi and his fiance Jody Hayden

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Speaker 1: spent their last full day in chiny yesterday checking out

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Speaker 1: a bunch of pandas.

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Speaker 3: Pander diplomacy is actually real thing, Adam. The way you

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Speaker 3: said that, I thought there was a little sark.

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Speaker 2: Little skepticism.

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Speaker 3: Yes, So Beijing gifted pandas to the US in nineteen

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Speaker 3: seventy two, after Richard Nixon's visit. It was kind of

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Speaker 3: like a foreign relations and the pandas represented that. We

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Speaker 3: received a couple of pandas in two thousand and nine

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Speaker 3: under a ten year deal signed by the PM John Howard.

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Speaker 3: Their names Wang Wang and Fu Ni right their arrival

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Speaker 3: amid free trade negotiations was seen as a gesture of goodwill.

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Speaker 3: Now they departed last year Wang Wang and Funi, and

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Speaker 3: one of the pandas Anthony Albernez he visited yesterday.

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Speaker 2: Was actually FUNI that's cool.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I don't know the fun he said, Hey,

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Speaker 3: hey you're the Auso. I I've seen you on TV.

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Speaker 3: We've actually got two others. They're in Adelaide Zoo beyond

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Speaker 3: the pandas. The Prime Minister said the trip has been

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Speaker 3: very successful and he wants more Australian money spent in China,

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Speaker 3: citing the success of hearing aid manufacturer Cochlear in chang Dou.

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Speaker 3: He dodged a question about whether he trusts Chinese President

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Speaker 3: Jiji Ping. Speaking at a press conference Albanize, he said

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Speaker 3: he had no reason not to trust the Chinese leader.

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Speaker 3: He also rejected criticism from the coalition that his trip

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Speaker 3: was indulgent. I don't think it was indulgent, right, Like,

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Speaker 3: you know, there's obviously diplomacy matters, but there just seemed

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Speaker 3: to be a lot of sort of picture and Joe

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Speaker 3: yet well the ceremony I get, it's a lot of

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Speaker 3: pictures of he and j d Ha, yes, holiday snaps,

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Speaker 3: almost hand in hand. I don't know that I saw

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Speaker 3: the hand in hand, but you know, with the pandas

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Speaker 3: and with a great wall of China and.

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Speaker 1: Images everything so Sean, you know, I shouldn't be so

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Speaker 1: skeptical about the panda diplomacy because you know, it's not

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Speaker 1: exactly like Oprah Winfrey giving away a car, like, not

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Speaker 1: every no one gets a car.

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Speaker 2: Not everyone gets a panda, do they?

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Speaker 3: No, totally panda diplomacy is. In fact I was reading yesterday,

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Speaker 3: Apparently it dates back centuries and centuries and centuries. We

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Speaker 3: kind of only know it from the Nixon visit. But

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Speaker 3: China has been giving pand is away forever.

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Speaker 2: Apparently I have so much to learn.

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Speaker 1: Sean, Australia's anti money laundering and counter terrorism financing regulator

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Speaker 1: OSITRAK will focus on high risk sectors such as cash

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Speaker 1: and digital currencies is financial year.

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Speaker 3: Its regulatory priorities are on what it calls tranch to industries,

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Speaker 3: so real estate lawyers, conveyances, accountants, trust and company service providers,

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Speaker 3: dealers in precious metals and stones. It's a shift from

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Speaker 3: regulation that primary checks for compliance to one focused on

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Speaker 3: substantive risk and harms. As part of preparations ahead of

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Speaker 3: legislative reforms in July next year, oz TRAK is scaling

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Speaker 3: up its work and systems to bring around eighty thousand

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Speaker 3: new businesses under that anti money laundering banner, so if

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Speaker 3: you are in one of those areas, be warned.

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Speaker 2: Oh that is interesting, Sean.

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Speaker 1: That story is very timely because immediately after the show

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Speaker 1: you've done a great interview with Marris Burke, Managing Director Investigations,

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Speaker 1: Diligence and Compliance at Kroll.

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Speaker 3: It's all about corruption really like the governance part of ESG,

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Speaker 3: and corruption is part of the G part of the governance,

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Speaker 3: and just how it's not a corruption is not a

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Speaker 3: major issue for Australian companies in Australia, but it is

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Speaker 3: an issue when you are dealing outside Australia, and we

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Speaker 3: talk about that and just how easy it is for

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Speaker 3: companies to find themselves undertaking corrupt practices which are clearly corrupt,

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Speaker 3: but it's almost like just doing business the way that

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Speaker 3: country does it, and the dangers in that. It's a

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Speaker 3: great chat.

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Speaker 1: We sometimes take for granted just how much the rule

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Speaker 1: of law applies here and so I think that's a

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Speaker 1: really good warning about dealing with foreign territories exactly, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The sparring in the gaming industry continues with ASX listed

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Speaker 1: Better making an unsolicited all script takeover bid for points bet.

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Speaker 3: Bet as offer proposes three point eighty one of its

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Speaker 3: shares for everyone points bet share that values the deal

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Speaker 3: at a dollar and three share points Bet that it's

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Speaker 3: reviewing the proposal. It will release a target's statement in

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Speaker 3: due course, including a formal recommendation from the board. Now

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Speaker 3: points Bet already has another bit on the table from

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Speaker 3: Japanese entertainment giant Mixey. It's a dollar twenty way above

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Speaker 3: that dollar and three, and it's in cash, providing much

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Speaker 3: clearer evaluation and certainty of timing. Probably not going on

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Speaker 3: in that deal. And then that bid that I'm not

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Speaker 3: really across because the dollar in three is obviously a

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Speaker 3: local bid, whereas the Japanese one is not local, so

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Speaker 3: there's issues there. But Mixey's bid is a lot higher

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Speaker 3: than that one from yesterday.

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Speaker 2: Sean, can I propose a banning? Yeah, absolutely, statement all

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Speaker 2: the words in due course.

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Speaker 3: Because it means nothing at some point in the future.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely.

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Speaker 3: Good point.

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Speaker 1: Moving on Shan us and ASX listed metals producer Alcoa

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Speaker 1: said it's been hit with a US one hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifteen million dollars in tariff costs on its imports of

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Speaker 1: aluminium to the US from its Canadian smelters.

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Speaker 3: What a whack Yeah sure is. The tariff's sent at

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Speaker 3: twenty five percent from March twelve, then fifty percent on

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Speaker 3: June four. Alchorl warns it expects another ninety million US

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Speaker 3: hit from tarifs in the September quarter. It said it

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Speaker 3: redirected some Canadian produced aluminum to customers outside the US

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Speaker 3: to mitigate additional tariff costs. Al Kaa said said its

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Speaker 3: second quarter underlying earnings fell sharply, mostly due to lower

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Speaker 3: alumina and aluminum prices as well as the tariffs. Our

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Speaker 3: coh's share price on the ASEX is down nearly ten

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Speaker 3: percent in the past week.

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Speaker 2: Sewn in Corporate news, Oil and gas group Santos has

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Speaker 2: increased production volumes in the second quarter, driven by strong

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Speaker 2: production in Western Australia that offset flood impacts in the

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Speaker 2: Cooper Basin.

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Speaker 3: The better than expected result is timely given Santos is

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Speaker 3: under takeover offer from a Middle Eastern consortium. Also ASX

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Speaker 3: listed car Group fell after it announced that long serving

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Speaker 3: chief executive Cameron McIntyre will step down and be replaced

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Speaker 3: by chief financial officer William Elliott.

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Speaker 1: Sewn in International News, Donald Trump has asked Republican politicians

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Speaker 1: if he should fire the FED shair Jerome Powell, and

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Speaker 1: he's also taken a swipe at his own base for

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Speaker 1: pushing what he calls the Jeffrey Epstein hoax.

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Speaker 3: Starting with Jerome Powell, Trump asked Republican members of Congress

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Speaker 3: during an Oval Office meeting if he should remove the

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Speaker 3: FED chair. Apparently they supported the idea, though Trump later

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Speaker 3: said he wasn't planning on doing anything unless there is

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Speaker 3: fraud involved, which is possible. That's what he's now. There's

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Speaker 3: no evidence of that, but that's just what he said.

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Speaker 3: Senior bankers have rallied behind the FED chair, supporting his

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Speaker 3: independence and the Fed's independence. Trump, of course dislikes power

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Speaker 3: because he hasn't cut interest rates yet. Unto Epstein, he's

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Speaker 3: a disgraced financier and child sex offender who took his

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Speaker 3: own life in prison in twenty nineteen. He was an

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Speaker 3: acquaintance of Donald Trump. Many Republicans supporters of Trump want

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Speaker 3: details of lists of Epstein's friends, slash clients, and details

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Speaker 3: of his death to be release now. Trump has promised

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Speaker 3: some of that, but he seems to have changed his mind.

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Speaker 3: He doesn't have anything to do with it now. He

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Speaker 3: accused his past supporters is how he put them of

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Speaker 3: pushing the Jeffrey Epstein hoax. The problem for Trump is

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Speaker 3: that many in his base do not think it's the

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Speaker 3: hoax now.

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Speaker 1: Meanwhile, staying with the Trump topic, he said he would

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Speaker 1: send letters to more than one hundred and fifty countries

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Speaker 1: notifying them that their tariff rates could be ten percent

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Speaker 1: or fifteen percent as he pushes ahead with his trade agen.

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Speaker 3: He said, the tariff will be the same for everyone

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Speaker 3: in that group. Not sure who they are. He added that, well,

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Speaker 3: we did say trading partners that would receive those letters

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Speaker 3: were not big countries. They don't do that much business.

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Speaker 3: Now Australia actually doesn't do much business with us. We

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Speaker 3: know that, so maybe we fall into that wait and see.

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Speaker 1: Sean eight babies have been born in the UK using

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Speaker 1: genetic material from three different people to prevent devastating and

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Speaker 1: often fatal conditions.

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Speaker 3: Incredible story. The method, pioneered by UK scientists combines the

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Speaker 3: egg and sperm from a mum and dad with a

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Speaker 3: second egg from a DNA woman. The technique has been

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Speaker 3: legal for a decade, according to BBC, but only now

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Speaker 3: is their proof that children have been born free of

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Speaker 3: the incurable mitochondrial disease, which essentially starves the body of energy.

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Speaker 3: It's normally passed from mother to child. Couples know they

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Speaker 3: are at risk if previous children, family members, or the

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Speaker 3: mother has been affected. Now, children born through the three

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Speaker 3: person technique inherit most of their DNA, their genetic blueprint

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Speaker 3: from their parents. They also get a tiny amount about

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Speaker 3: zero point one of a percent, so one tenth of

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Speaker 3: percent from the second woman. That means that they do

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Speaker 3: not get this genetic disease and it's a change then

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Speaker 3: passed down through the generations.

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Speaker 2: Oh wow, that's incredible technology.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, incredibly hard to get your head around.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, Sean, Thank you Adam.

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Speaker 1: It's Friday, the eighteenth of July twenty twenty five. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast. Join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram,

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Speaker 1: x TikTok, and Facebook, and please have a great day.