1 00:00:04,200 --> 00:00:06,400 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Fear and Greed summer series. I'm sure 2 00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:09,920 Speaker 1: a ailmer. Today I'm talking to Simon Kusten Maha, co 3 00:00:10,039 --> 00:00:13,600 Speaker 1: founder and director at the Demographics Group, our favorite demographer. 4 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:16,239 Speaker 1: Here at Fear and Greed, we're talking about early career 5 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:19,680 Speaker 1: problems for young knowledge workers. Simon, and welcome back to 6 00:00:19,680 --> 00:00:22,360 Speaker 1: Fear and Greed. That's good to be on. Now. When 7 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:25,079 Speaker 1: I left university, I did an economics degree. I was 8 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 1: always going to get a job in my field or another. 9 00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 1: It turned out in journalism, but it was sort of guaranteed. 10 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:33,640 Speaker 1: Is that still the case. 11 00:00:34,440 --> 00:00:37,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, let's just say a university degree is much 12 00:00:37,760 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 2: less special than it once was. So if you read 13 00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:45,120 Speaker 2: biographies of you know, people that lived two hundred years 14 00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:48,040 Speaker 2: ago or something like this, you're always very impressed about 15 00:00:48,080 --> 00:00:51,240 Speaker 2: the chapter that describes the university years when they met 16 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 2: with the smartest minds of the country and it was 17 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 2: this intellectual firework that occurred every day. And that's because 18 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:02,200 Speaker 2: you only put one or two percent of the population 19 00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:06,560 Speaker 2: into university. You only put the most excellent minds of 20 00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:10,240 Speaker 2: the country into university. Now we are sending about fifty 21 00:01:10,319 --> 00:01:13,360 Speaker 2: five percent of our year twelves into university, so you're 22 00:01:13,400 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 2: now part of the top fifty five percent of the country. 23 00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 2: Intellectually speaking, that is not overly impressive, to be honest. 24 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:25,559 Speaker 2: That then, of course led to degree inflation. That means, 25 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:27,400 Speaker 2: in order to get a leg up on the rest, 26 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:31,400 Speaker 2: you added a master's degree straight after, maybe you even 27 00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:34,200 Speaker 2: got a PhD. Even though you didn't want to go 28 00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:38,600 Speaker 2: into academia. And so we over educate ourselves. They are 29 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 2: not intellectually speaking. Intellectually we are always too dumb, but 30 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:48,520 Speaker 2: we created more smart, highly educated people than the economy 31 00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:51,640 Speaker 2: actually needed. That then means that bit by bit the 32 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:55,120 Speaker 2: pay premium that you should get for your university degree, 33 00:01:55,320 --> 00:02:00,559 Speaker 2: which also became more expensive, becomes less attractive. And that's 34 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:05,800 Speaker 2: for the individual. That's an important thing to understand. So 35 00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:08,920 Speaker 2: this has happened over the last decades anyways as a 36 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:12,359 Speaker 2: slow process, and now all of a sudden we're throwing 37 00:02:12,520 --> 00:02:17,639 Speaker 2: AI into the mix for those university students that will 38 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:20,920 Speaker 2: end up most likely in a knowledge type job. And 39 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:23,480 Speaker 2: that throws a bit of a spanner in the works 40 00:02:23,600 --> 00:02:27,800 Speaker 2: yet again, because, as it turns out, the tasks that 41 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:30,240 Speaker 2: I is able to do now and in the next 42 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:32,880 Speaker 2: couple of years just happened to be the tasks that 43 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:37,360 Speaker 2: we tended to give to our young graduates. If you 44 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:40,200 Speaker 2: think about a law firm, there's a lot of just 45 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:44,720 Speaker 2: like your little graduate, read through these kind of things, 46 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:49,680 Speaker 2: look through caseloads, find us this kind of information. That 47 00:02:49,760 --> 00:02:53,560 Speaker 2: stuff is now much faster than by AI. So that 48 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:56,720 Speaker 2: of course then means that as a large employer who 49 00:02:56,800 --> 00:02:59,560 Speaker 2: takes in heaps of graduates each year, instead of taking 50 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:02,120 Speaker 2: it one hundred graduates as a NAP, as a KPMG, 51 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:05,720 Speaker 2: I can easily get away with sixty seventy graduates. I 52 00:03:05,919 --> 00:03:09,480 Speaker 2: just weaponize them with AI, and I need fewer workers. 53 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:13,240 Speaker 2: So that means again, if these big employers need fewer workers, 54 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:16,799 Speaker 2: that means my unit degree becomes worth just a tit less. 55 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:20,639 Speaker 2: So that is not helpful at all for those workers. 56 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:23,800 Speaker 2: But of course, what we still then see, at least 57 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:28,200 Speaker 2: as AI stands right now, as these graduates move through 58 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:31,760 Speaker 2: their career and enter the middle career phase, all of 59 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:34,760 Speaker 2: a sudden, they need skills that their eye isn't doing 60 00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:37,360 Speaker 2: much more, and so we need more workers then, and 61 00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:42,119 Speaker 2: by in a sense under supplying your company with young workers, 62 00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:45,360 Speaker 2: you lack them in the middle years, and you somehow 63 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:48,400 Speaker 2: just hope and pray that you can find them externally 64 00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:51,040 Speaker 2: rather than recruiting them from within. But you have this 65 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:53,960 Speaker 2: artificially lower labor pool at the bottom of the pyramid, 66 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 2: and that could quite soon become a real problem for businesses. 67 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:02,760 Speaker 1: And this is quite a choice for business. Then do 68 00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:05,800 Speaker 1: you save your money in the short term and struggle 69 00:04:05,840 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 1: in five years when you're looking at middle junior middle managers, 70 00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:11,920 Speaker 1: or do you think, okay, we're just going to take 71 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:14,880 Speaker 1: them on so that we do I mean, we don't 72 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:17,160 Speaker 1: have the diamond shaped workforce where you have no one 73 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:19,120 Speaker 1: at the bottom. If you're at the bottom, if you're 74 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:20,600 Speaker 1: at the top, and run in the middle. But if 75 00:04:20,640 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 1: you like business, do have a choice about this? 76 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:27,160 Speaker 2: Exactly? You have a very tough choice to make as 77 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:29,479 Speaker 2: a business. And I know that you operate within real 78 00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:33,240 Speaker 2: constraints financially speaking, So you can't just say we're taking 79 00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:36,120 Speaker 2: ten percent more graduates than we actually need in order 80 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:39,040 Speaker 2: to set us up better for the future. Because at 81 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:43,279 Speaker 2: the moment you operate with very high costs of doing business. 82 00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:45,719 Speaker 2: You know, your office rents are higher than you like, 83 00:04:46,400 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 2: your interest rates for your capital investments are higher than 84 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:51,960 Speaker 2: you like, So all of this stuff is actually rather 85 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:55,839 Speaker 2: difficult if all this adds up, So this is not 86 00:04:55,880 --> 00:04:59,560 Speaker 2: an easy choice, but it does make it does make 87 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:02,280 Speaker 2: it certain that businesses need to have a very deliberate 88 00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:06,440 Speaker 2: and long term strategic view on their hiring right. 89 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 1: Now, Is II any different to the printing press, to 90 00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:15,880 Speaker 1: the introduction of the internet, I mean to modern telecommunications 91 00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:17,160 Speaker 1: via radio and phone. 92 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:20,800 Speaker 2: Well, so my general argument there is that I think 93 00:05:20,880 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 2: AI is yet another tool that allows us to do 94 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:27,800 Speaker 2: certain tasks much faster. So if you think about how 95 00:05:27,839 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 2: long did it take to read an annual report? You 96 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 2: can do this much faster with a I. But asking 97 00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 2: any questions that you want to have answered, you can 98 00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:39,880 Speaker 2: create maps and charts much faster. You can replate to 99 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:42,679 Speaker 2: emails faster for having them, you know, pre written by AI, 100 00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:46,080 Speaker 2: and then you just correct them. So that means, yes, 101 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:51,159 Speaker 2: AI makes you faster. But the task that AI speeds 102 00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:54,080 Speaker 2: up for you, these are the tasks that are technical 103 00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 2: in nature. What AI isn't doing for you just yet 104 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:02,279 Speaker 2: are these interperson tasks. So I would argue that the 105 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:07,560 Speaker 2: workload of of your staff will shift from technical tasks 106 00:06:08,320 --> 00:06:12,200 Speaker 2: to more interpersonal tasks, so they still be technical tasks 107 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:13,400 Speaker 2: that they're doing. But if you think about this sort 108 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:16,039 Speaker 2: of a pie chart that has technical and interpersonal tasks, 109 00:06:16,400 --> 00:06:19,720 Speaker 2: the piece of the pie that shows interpersonal that continues 110 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:22,200 Speaker 2: to grow, and that of course then means that in 111 00:06:22,240 --> 00:06:27,279 Speaker 2: your hiring as a business you are well advised to 112 00:06:27,360 --> 00:06:30,520 Speaker 2: double down even more on the interpersonal, on the soft 113 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:33,800 Speaker 2: skills that a candidate might have, not that the technical 114 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:38,480 Speaker 2: skills become obsolete, but they become much easier to learn 115 00:06:38,560 --> 00:06:40,720 Speaker 2: and to fulfill with the help of the eye than 116 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:42,080 Speaker 2: the interpersonal tasks. 117 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:43,840 Speaker 1: So I mean, thank you for talking to Fear and 118 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:44,840 Speaker 1: Greed summer series. 119 00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:45,839 Speaker 2: My pleasure. 120 00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:48,839 Speaker 1: That was some Christen Maha from the Demographics Group, don't 121 00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:51,360 Speaker 1: forget to follow on the podcast. New episodes every day 122 00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:54,320 Speaker 1: during our summer series and regular shows are back from 123 00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:56,440 Speaker 1: January twelve. I'm sure I own that. And this is 124 00:06:56,560 --> 00:06:58,159 Speaker 1: Fear and Greeds summer Series.