WEBVTT - Cyclone politics

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<v Speaker 1>I think we could probably say we've never seen a

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<v Speaker 1>cyclone quite like this. It's been a very strangely behaved cyclone.

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<v Speaker 2>Mike's second is the Saturday Paper's National correspondent. He spent

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<v Speaker 2>the week tracking Cyclone Alfred as a bore down on Queensland.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, normally, when tropical cyclones leave the tropics, I

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<v Speaker 1>mean the reason they call tropical cyclones, obviously they start

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<v Speaker 1>to weaken. But Alfred did the opposite, you know, instead

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<v Speaker 1>of petering out off the Sunshine Coast, it abruptly intensified

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<v Speaker 1>and then it completely changed course. It basically did a

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<v Speaker 1>U turn. It was heading off to the sort of

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<v Speaker 1>east southeast. Suddenly it turned and went to the west,

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<v Speaker 1>started heading towards Brisbane. Along the way, it's done at

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<v Speaker 1>least one loop, the loop where it's sort of gone

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<v Speaker 1>in a full circle.

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<v Speaker 2>The storm hits as we're gearing up for the election.

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<v Speaker 2>It brings back memories of the floods and bushfires that

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<v Speaker 2>tore through the country last time we voted. From Schwartz Media,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Daniel James. This is seven AM today. Mike's second

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<v Speaker 2>on the politics of natural disasters and why every election

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<v Speaker 2>is a climate change election. It's Saturday, March eighth. Mike,

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<v Speaker 2>you've pointed to just how unusual this cyclone is. Can

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<v Speaker 2>you tell me about the conditions that led to what

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<v Speaker 2>we've seen? Why did Alfred behave so strangely?

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<v Speaker 1>The basic reason why this reintensification happened has to do

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<v Speaker 1>with the ocean temperature. Science tells us that for a

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<v Speaker 1>cyclone to form, it requires surface temperatures of above about

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<v Speaker 1>twenty six point five degrees celsius. And as it happened,

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<v Speaker 1>the water is around Australia at the moment and all

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<v Speaker 1>through last year were the hottest they've ever been, including

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<v Speaker 1>in the Coral Sea, and the water temperature of southern

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<v Speaker 1>Queensland coast was a balmi twenty seven degrees. The meteorologists

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<v Speaker 1>and the experts, people like Matt Kean from the Climate

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<v Speaker 1>Change Authority and David Coroli from the Climate Council say

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<v Speaker 1>what we all know, essentially, it's climate change. What Corolli

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<v Speaker 1>tells me is that we're seeing fewer cyclones overall, but

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<v Speaker 1>the ones that do form tend to be more intense

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<v Speaker 1>and more erratic and wetter because you know, a warmer

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<v Speaker 1>atmosphere holds more water, so when it rains, it buckets,

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<v Speaker 1>and all of it aligns with Alfred's behavior. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>it meandered down the Queensland coast for well over a week,

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<v Speaker 1>then it powered back up, then it took a path

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<v Speaker 1>we haven't seen in about fifty years for that region,

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<v Speaker 1>and then you know, it moved to a snails place,

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<v Speaker 1>essentially stalled, you know, while the big waves continued to

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<v Speaker 1>batter the coast and the rain continued to buck it down.

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<v Speaker 2>Brisbane's been bracing for it all week and a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of the same places that were so damaged by flooding

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<v Speaker 2>in twenty twenty two right before the last election. So

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<v Speaker 2>how did that last event shape how people voted?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, last election was very much a climate election. We

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<v Speaker 1>had a green slide so called in Brisbane. The Greens

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<v Speaker 1>picked up three seas. It's a large part of that

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<v Speaker 1>I think was because the Greens had a wonderful ground

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<v Speaker 1>campaign where they basically went door to door in response

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<v Speaker 1>to the flooding and offered to help people. So that

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<v Speaker 1>earned them a lot of goodwill. We'd also had the

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<v Speaker 1>Black Summer bush fires not so long before the last election.

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<v Speaker 1>We remember Scott Morrison's famous suicide note, I don't hold

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<v Speaker 1>a hose mate, you know, which saw people move away

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<v Speaker 1>from the coalition.

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<v Speaker 3>The Prime Minister has caved tonight, rushing back from Hawaii

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<v Speaker 3>amid criticism for taking a holiday while Sydney Burns Scott

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<v Speaker 3>Morrison express I know it was.

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<v Speaker 1>Jones to understand this, and they'll be pleased I'm coming

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<v Speaker 1>back on shore.

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<v Speaker 2>But they know that.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, I don't hold a hosemte, and I don't

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<v Speaker 1>should control room.

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<v Speaker 4>That's the great people who do that.

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<v Speaker 1>The other thing I should mention, of course, is we

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<v Speaker 1>had a bunch of so called teals climate independence elected

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<v Speaker 1>in what had formerly been safe Liberal Party seats and

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<v Speaker 1>central to their platform, of course, was that we should

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<v Speaker 1>have a stronger response to climate change. Now things have

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<v Speaker 1>changed a bit, the cost of livings in biting climate

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<v Speaker 1>change had receded as a top priority for voters. But

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<v Speaker 1>I think this storm could very much refocus the minds

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<v Speaker 1>of voters, particularly the four million odd voters in the

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<v Speaker 1>path of this cyclone, could very well refocus their minds

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<v Speaker 1>on the issues.

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<v Speaker 2>And if that is the case, why people are looking

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<v Speaker 2>for action on climate change. Still, what would the government

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<v Speaker 2>be able to point to when it comes to which

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<v Speaker 2>record on climate change action.

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<v Speaker 1>Well quite a bit actually, I mean not as much

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<v Speaker 1>as a lot of people who are concerned about climate change,

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<v Speaker 1>including myself I Dad might hope for. But the Albanezi

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<v Speaker 1>government highlights a number of measures that it says are helping.

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<v Speaker 1>For a start, when it came in, it immediately upped

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<v Speaker 1>Australia's commitment under the Paris Climate Accord our emissions reduction target,

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<v Speaker 1>which had been twenty six to twenty eight percent under

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<v Speaker 1>the Morrison government. Labor jumped it up to forty three

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<v Speaker 1>percent emissions reduction by twenty thirty, and then it implemented

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<v Speaker 1>a a variety of policies that were intended to help

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<v Speaker 1>get us there. You know. A key one was the

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<v Speaker 1>Safeguard mechanism, which requires Australia's biggest corporate emitters to progressively

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<v Speaker 1>curb their greenhouse gas output over time. They've introduced fuel

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<v Speaker 1>efficiency standards for cars, making them cleaner and use link

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<v Speaker 1>less fuel, and various incentives that encourage investment in when solar, hydrogen, etc.

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<v Speaker 1>So these policies collectively are what the government credits and

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of the experts, I might say, also credit

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<v Speaker 1>for putting Australia on track to meet this legislated forty

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<v Speaker 1>three percent ambition for cuts in emissions. Meanwhile, the coalition,

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<v Speaker 1>led by Peter Dutton, has previously indicated that it might

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<v Speaker 1>not even stick with that forty three percent target if

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<v Speaker 1>it's elected. Last year, Dutton said, and I'm quoting him here,

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<v Speaker 1>there was no sense in signing up to targets you

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<v Speaker 1>don't have any prospective achieving. Dutton has since tried to

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<v Speaker 1>tamp this down, and he said that he's he will

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<v Speaker 1>not be following Donald Trump's footsteps and withdrawing Usustralia from

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<v Speaker 1>Paris altogether. Would you consider withdrawing from Paris.

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<v Speaker 3>I think we've been pretty firm in our commitment to

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<v Speaker 3>net zero by twenty fifty and that's a commitment that

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<v Speaker 3>we take seriously in the will honor. I think it'll

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<v Speaker 3>be interesting to see where the United States goes and

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<v Speaker 3>what influence that has in Europe and elsewhere around the world.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, the devil's in the detail. And Matt Kean,

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<v Speaker 1>the head of the Climate Change Authority, says what we

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<v Speaker 1>might see if we can get a coalition government is

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<v Speaker 1>what he calls a dirty remain, meaning that they might

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<v Speaker 1>stay in name, but do things that undercut our ability

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<v Speaker 1>to hit our targets.

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<v Speaker 2>Coming up after the break the political Balancing Act in

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<v Speaker 2>a time of crisis.

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<v Speaker 5>Hi Ruby Jones. Here, seven Am tells stories that need

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<v Speaker 5>and now we're increasing our coverage. Every Saturday until the election,

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<v Speaker 2>Well, let's talk some more about the Paris Agreement in

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<v Speaker 2>Australia's commitment to it. Are we on track to meet

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<v Speaker 2>our obligations?

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<v Speaker 1>So yes, the target was forty three percent compared with

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand and five levels by twenty thirty, so that's

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<v Speaker 1>what we submitted under the Paris Agreement. According to the

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<v Speaker 1>most recent figures from the Climate Change Department, which came

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<v Speaker 1>out at the end of last year, our missions are

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<v Speaker 1>projected to be down to forty two point six percent

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<v Speaker 1>on the current trajectory by twenty thirty so we're very close. However,

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<v Speaker 1>Paris requires each party to ratchet up its ambitions over time.

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<v Speaker 1>All parties were supposed to submit their new targets by February.

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<v Speaker 1>Australia missed the deadline. Matt Kean if the Climate Change

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<v Speaker 1>Authority attributed the delay in part to the disruptive climate

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<v Speaker 1>policies of Donald Trump in the United States and said

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<v Speaker 1>that that meant they would have to recalibrate what Australia

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<v Speaker 1>would do. But I would suggest a more cynical observer

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<v Speaker 1>would look at this and say, well, the government probably

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<v Speaker 1>prefers to delay announcing a higher target until after the election.

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<v Speaker 1>So there's still this question hanging of how far Australia

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<v Speaker 1>would go under a future Labor government. There's little doubt

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<v Speaker 1>that Labor would, if it was re elected, set a

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<v Speaker 1>more ambitious target for twenty thirty five. The question is

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<v Speaker 1>just how much it would advance its ambition, whether it

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<v Speaker 1>would match what the experts say is actually needed, which

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<v Speaker 1>is something around a seventy five percent cut to be

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<v Speaker 1>consistent with the goal of keeping global heating at less

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<v Speaker 1>than two degrees. So if a future government attempts to

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<v Speaker 1>step back, it would be in violation of the treaty.

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<v Speaker 2>So, as you mentioned, Mike Peter Dutton has ruled out

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<v Speaker 2>withdrawing from the Paris Agreement. But let's talk about the

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<v Speaker 2>coalition's climate policy and what they would mean for our

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<v Speaker 2>missions targets.

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<v Speaker 1>You're right, Dutton has said he's committed in principle of

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<v Speaker 1>setting a new twenty thirty five target. He's given no

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<v Speaker 1>hint as to what that might be. But the policies

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<v Speaker 1>the coalition has laid out race series doubts about whether

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<v Speaker 1>they'd even meet the twenty thirty target, the forty three

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<v Speaker 1>percent reduction goal. For one thing, the coalition voted against

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<v Speaker 1>essentially all of Labour's climate policies, you know, the safeguard's mechanism,

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<v Speaker 1>fuel standards, et cetera, et cetera. But more significantly, the

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<v Speaker 1>coalition's signature nature policy is building a whole bunch of

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear power. The coalition says that it wants to have

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<v Speaker 1>thirty eight percent of Australia's electricity coming from nuclear power

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<v Speaker 1>sources by twenty fifty. The problem with that, of course,

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<v Speaker 1>is that nuclear takes a long time to build. On

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<v Speaker 1>even the most optimistic projections. They wouldn't get even the

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<v Speaker 1>first of their proposed nuclear power stations built until the

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<v Speaker 1>mid or late twenty thirties and in the interim. Their

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<v Speaker 1>plan is to keep the old coal fired power generators

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<v Speaker 1>running and burn a lot more gas, all of which,

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<v Speaker 1>of course releases more carbon into the atmosphere. So the

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<v Speaker 1>Climate Change Authority ran the numbers on the coalition's policy

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<v Speaker 1>and they found that this reliance on fossil fuels during

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<v Speaker 1>the time it takes to build nuclear would add something

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<v Speaker 1>like two billion tons of extra carbon pollution to the atmosphere.

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<v Speaker 1>Matt Keen has also pointed out that even the coalition's

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<v Speaker 1>own commissioned modeling that they relied on when proposing this

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear plan from Frontier Economics also recognized that there would

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<v Speaker 1>be billions of extra tons of emissions under the nuclear plan.

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<v Speaker 1>The opposition's response was to take aim at the messenger.

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<v Speaker 1>There were suggestions that Keene should be sacked and that

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<v Speaker 1>this was a politicized exercise. In fact, the shadow Climate

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<v Speaker 1>Change and Energy Minister Ted O'Brien, and this nuclear plan

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<v Speaker 1>is essentially his baby. He wrote to Keen, accusing the

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<v Speaker 1>Authority of departing from its mandate, and he accused them

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<v Speaker 1>of producing quote a political critique.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm not sure why mister O'Brien is trying to politicize

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<v Speaker 4>the Independent Climate Authority.

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<v Speaker 1>Our role is to provide evidence based and science based

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<v Speaker 1>advice on climate policy. Kein invited the coalition to provide

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<v Speaker 1>any solid alternative estimates. So far, as far as I know,

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<v Speaker 1>the coalition has not done so.

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<v Speaker 2>It's interesting, though, Michae. Isn't it that we see leaders

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<v Speaker 2>band together in moments of crisis, as we've seen this week.

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<v Speaker 2>We've seen the L and P Premier David Cristo fully

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<v Speaker 2>standing with the PM talking about the cyclone. But what

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<v Speaker 2>we don't seem to be seeing is leaders banning together

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<v Speaker 2>and coming up with a bipartisan solution to what's causing

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<v Speaker 2>these disasters in the first place. How do you think

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<v Speaker 2>Albanese's handling of this storm in this moment could reshape

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<v Speaker 2>the election campaign.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, it was a very pertinent observation you made that

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<v Speaker 1>we've seen Albanese standing there with Chris and Fooley. Albanze

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<v Speaker 1>is walking a line here. He needs to show leadership

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<v Speaker 1>without looking like he's being opportunistic, I would suggest obviously

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<v Speaker 1>he sees it playing to his managed to be visible

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<v Speaker 1>in a crisis, and we know that failing to adequately

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<v Speaker 1>respond to a disaster can be deadly for political leaders.

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<v Speaker 1>I refer again back to Scott Morrison heading off to

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<v Speaker 1>Hawaii and during the Black Summer bush fires, And interestingly,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think Peter Dutton's handled this terribly well so far.

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<v Speaker 1>He went on Brisbane Radio on Wednesday morning, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>talking about the seriousness of cyclone Alfred and the importance

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<v Speaker 1>of checking on the old neighbors, etc. But he politicized

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<v Speaker 1>it and took a swipe at Anthony Alberizi, suggesting that

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<v Speaker 1>if Albinizi called an election this week, it would display

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<v Speaker 1>a tiney for the reality of the situation.

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<v Speaker 4>Some people will have lost everything that in the reality

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<v Speaker 4>of these weather events, and to go to an election

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<v Speaker 4>at that stage, at that time, I think the Prime

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<v Speaker 4>Minister would have a ten year to do that. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 4>due until the seventheenth of May, so he's got plenty

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<v Speaker 4>of time too.

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<v Speaker 1>Then it was revealed in a I think you'd say,

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<v Speaker 1>an amusingly snarky piece in the Financial Review rear Window

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<v Speaker 1>column that Dutton had left his electorate on Tuesday to

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<v Speaker 1>do a party fundraiser in Sydney and had been entertained

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<v Speaker 1>at the harbourside mansion of Justin Hymns, and the finnpiece

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<v Speaker 1>had a killer final line which said of Dutton, I

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<v Speaker 1>don't hold a tarp mate. But the bigger question here,

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<v Speaker 1>I think is the policy one. Ultimately, you know, the

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<v Speaker 1>risk is the coalition parties under Dutton are seen to

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<v Speaker 1>be deliberately obstructionist to climate action. And it's interesting when

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<v Speaker 1>I was talking to Matt Keen, he actually used those

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<v Speaker 1>words deliberately obstructionist, as Keene said when I spoke to him,

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<v Speaker 1>and I'll quote him here because it was a particularly

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<v Speaker 1>strong and pertinent quote. I thought. He said, whether we

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<v Speaker 1>realize it or not, every election is now a climate

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<v Speaker 1>change election because it touches everything the economy, the environment,

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<v Speaker 1>the prospects of future generations. And he was saying we

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<v Speaker 1>should be pressing politicians all the time to explain how

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<v Speaker 1>they'd deal with the world. That is quoting him again,

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<v Speaker 1>inexorably heating up. So I would make two observations here.

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<v Speaker 1>The first is that this particularly pertinent in the electorates

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<v Speaker 1>of Peter Dutton and Ted O'Brien because they're right underwhere

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<v Speaker 1>the cyclone's tracking. And the other is that the smart

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<v Speaker 1>money is still on a minority government in the next parliament,

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<v Speaker 1>and the people who will hold a balance of power

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<v Speaker 1>will be Greens. They will be the community independent Teals,

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<v Speaker 1>all of whom have shown that they are much stronger

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<v Speaker 1>on climate issues than the major parties are, So you know,

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<v Speaker 1>this could well drive a stronger response in the future,

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<v Speaker 1>I think and hope.

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<v Speaker 2>Mike, thank you so much for your time.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks a lot.

0:14:35.440 --> 0:14:48.120
<v Speaker 2>Dan seven Am as a daily show from Schwartz Media

0:14:48.200 --> 0:14:52.240
<v Speaker 2>and The Saturday Paper. He's made by Atticus Basto, Shane Anderson,

0:14:52.320 --> 0:14:57.400
<v Speaker 2>Chris dan Gate, Eric Jensen, Ruby Jones, Sarah mcvee, Travis Evans,

0:14:57.640 --> 0:15:02.320
<v Speaker 2>Zoltenvechio and me Daniel James. Our theme music is by

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<v Speaker 2>Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Bordio. Every Saturday

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<v Speaker 2>until the election, will be bringing you extra episodes to

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<v Speaker 2>seven Am, breaking down the biggest political moments as they happen.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks for listening. See you mondaye