1 00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:09,080 Speaker 1: The Reserve Bank makes it very clear there are no 2 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:12,760 Speaker 1: interest rate cuts on the horizon. University has worn that 3 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:16,799 Speaker 1: fourteen thousand jobs could go, and Google is ruled to 4 00:00:16,880 --> 00:00:20,400 Speaker 1: have been quashing competition in a judgment with potentially huge 5 00:00:20,480 --> 00:00:24,120 Speaker 1: ramifications for search. Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily business 6 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:26,799 Speaker 1: news for people who make their own decisions. It is Wednesday, 7 00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 1: the seventh of August twenty twenty four. Are Michael Thompson 8 00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:34,360 Speaker 1: and Good Morning, Sean Aylmer. Good morning, Michael, Sean. The 9 00:00:34,400 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 1: main story this morning, the Reserve Bank has dashed hopes 10 00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 1: for a rate cup anytime soon, worried that inflation is 11 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:43,520 Speaker 1: falling slower than it previously thought. 12 00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:46,479 Speaker 2: The Central Bank yesterday left the benchmark cash rate at 13 00:00:46,479 --> 00:00:49,239 Speaker 2: four point three five percent, the levels it's been for 14 00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:52,320 Speaker 2: nine months, saying inflation is still some way above the 15 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:55,880 Speaker 2: midpoint of the two to three percent target range. Governor 16 00:00:55,880 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 2: Michelle Bullocks had only two options were considered at the 17 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:02,680 Speaker 2: bank's board meeting Ray or hold and hold for a while. 18 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:05,320 Speaker 2: She said a near term reduction in the cash rate 19 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:09,559 Speaker 2: doesn't align with the board's current thinking. Pouring cold water 20 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:11,920 Speaker 2: on hope's rates would fall before the end of this year. 21 00:01:12,360 --> 00:01:14,120 Speaker 2: The Bank has pushed out to the middle of twenty 22 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 2: twenty six, when it thinks inflation will return to around 23 00:01:17,200 --> 00:01:20,399 Speaker 2: two and a half percent. That's because the economy is 24 00:01:20,520 --> 00:01:23,720 Speaker 2: growing a bit faster than the Reserve Bank expected and 25 00:01:23,760 --> 00:01:27,039 Speaker 2: there isn't enough capacity to meet the high demand. But 26 00:01:27,160 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 2: there is plenty of uncertainty in all this. The Bank 27 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:33,920 Speaker 2: says there is still upside risks to inflation, especially services inflation. 28 00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 2: Also wages growth has peaked, but it's still too high. 29 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:40,000 Speaker 2: On the other hand, my metum in economic activity has 30 00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:43,920 Speaker 2: been weak. There's also uncertainty around how long monetary policy 31 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 2: takes to work and what's going on overseas. The money 32 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:49,400 Speaker 2: comment in all this was at the very end of 33 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 2: the statement. It's said that returning inflation to target is 34 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:57,120 Speaker 2: the priority. What's not said in that it's not about 35 00:01:57,160 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 2: full employment, it's all about inflation. 36 00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 1: So what was the response to the announcement, Because I 37 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 1: know everyone kind of watches for two thirty pm to 38 00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:09,320 Speaker 1: come around, and the moment that it happens kind of 39 00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:12,120 Speaker 1: everyone's kind of waiting with baited breath. What was the 40 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:14,160 Speaker 1: response to the announcement? And then I suppose what was 41 00:02:14,200 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 1: the response to Governor Michelle Bullock's press conference afterwards as well, 42 00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:19,120 Speaker 1: because you get a lot more insight then, don't you. 43 00:02:19,440 --> 00:02:20,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, you sure. 44 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:23,639 Speaker 2: There wasn't a huge amount going on immediately afterwards, Equities 45 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:26,240 Speaker 2: didn't do much. There wasn't a lot going on. With 46 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:28,760 Speaker 2: the dollar, it jumped up just a little bit. It's 47 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:32,520 Speaker 2: trading around sixty five US since. When asked about all 48 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:35,320 Speaker 2: the turmoil and financial markets in recent days, the government 49 00:02:35,320 --> 00:02:38,880 Speaker 2: basically said it didn't play a role in the board's deliberations. 50 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:42,320 Speaker 2: She also said it's important to resist peer pressure. So 51 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 2: she was asked about everyone else's cutting interest rates. We've 52 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:46,959 Speaker 2: had the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, Bank 53 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:50,040 Speaker 2: of Canada cut rates, us fed's talking about it. Doesn't 54 00:02:50,040 --> 00:02:52,280 Speaker 2: that put pressure on her? And she basically came in 55 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:56,800 Speaker 2: and said it's important to resist peer pressure. The overwhelming 56 00:02:56,960 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 2: feeling after yesterday's announcement and press conferences is that the 57 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:05,400 Speaker 2: Reserve Bank is just still some way away from even 58 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:08,600 Speaker 2: thinking about cutting interest rates, and that, you know, I 59 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:12,240 Speaker 2: think that surprised some people that rates are on hold, 60 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:14,760 Speaker 2: and just the fac that they're still talking about higher 61 00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:17,240 Speaker 2: interest rates and still such a prominent part of their 62 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:21,079 Speaker 2: discussion just a little more hawkish, a little more worried 63 00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:24,639 Speaker 2: about what's going on in inflation than people perhaps had hoped. 64 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:28,480 Speaker 1: The fact that cutting wasn't really part of the discussion 65 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 1: at all, I suppose may be a bit surprising. And 66 00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:34,720 Speaker 1: you actually put that to our guest today just speaking 67 00:03:34,720 --> 00:03:36,240 Speaker 1: too after the show. And if you're going to talk 68 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:40,520 Speaker 1: to anybody today to get an insight into this decision 69 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:43,000 Speaker 1: by the Reserve Bank board, this is the person to 70 00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:45,360 Speaker 1: speak to. Lucy Ellis, chief economist at Westpac. 71 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 3: Yeah. 72 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:48,640 Speaker 2: So Lucy twelve months ago or less than twelve months ago, 73 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:51,080 Speaker 2: was actually the chief economist at the Reserve Bank, so 74 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 2: she knows exactly how the bank operates. She says something 75 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 2: really interesting in this about how the central bank is 76 00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:02,760 Speaker 2: now framing monetary policy. She actually gives it a bit 77 00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 2: of a take, and she said it was I mean, 78 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:06,240 Speaker 2: she was somewhat surprised by some of the things that 79 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:10,360 Speaker 2: came out yesterday. She talks about that things like the 80 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:14,440 Speaker 2: aggregate demand in the economy and supplying the economy, and 81 00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:17,400 Speaker 2: the timing of how the Reserve Bank is thinking about 82 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:21,200 Speaker 2: when it should move on rates. She is really fascinating 83 00:04:21,200 --> 00:04:23,520 Speaker 2: because of all the people in the market. She's the 84 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:26,720 Speaker 2: one that knows the inside of the bank as well 85 00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:27,320 Speaker 2: as anyone. 86 00:04:27,600 --> 00:04:31,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, it is a fascinating interview, so well worth sticking 87 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 1: around for. It's coming up after the show. Okay, local markets, 88 00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:35,920 Speaker 1: how do they perform yesterday? 89 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:37,120 Speaker 3: Given the big. 90 00:04:36,920 --> 00:04:40,480 Speaker 2: Sell off on Wall Street on Monday night, yesterday's performance 91 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 2: was pretty encouraging. This in PAX two hundred closed up 92 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:46,560 Speaker 2: almost half a percent to seven six hundred and eighty 93 00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:49,839 Speaker 2: one points now. Of course, the previous two sessions Friday, 94 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:52,599 Speaker 2: last week Monday this week combined sent the balls down 95 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:55,640 Speaker 2: five and a half percent. Generally, it was the interest 96 00:04:55,720 --> 00:04:59,480 Speaker 2: rate sensitive stocks that did best. Industrial property giant Goodman 97 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:02,920 Speaker 2: Group led the way following some big falls from Goodman 98 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:06,160 Speaker 2: the previous couple of sessions. West Farmers also outperformed, as 99 00:05:06,200 --> 00:05:10,080 Speaker 2: did energy giant Santos, mcquarie Group, and some US focused 100 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:12,600 Speaker 2: companies like Branbles and Aristocrat Leisure and they all did 101 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:15,880 Speaker 2: pretty well as well. Uranium miners they were up. One 102 00:05:15,920 --> 00:05:18,679 Speaker 2: company that didn't do well was imaging group pro Medicus. 103 00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 2: It tumbled seven percent, the worst of the top two 104 00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:24,239 Speaker 2: hundred that Although there wasn't really any news to explain 105 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:27,120 Speaker 2: why mind you, Promedicus is up about seventy percent over 106 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:29,520 Speaker 2: the past gym. It's always worth looking at the banks 107 00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 2: in these times. While Commonwealth Bank jumped two point four 108 00:05:32,560 --> 00:05:35,720 Speaker 2: percent yesterday and Westpac and National Australia Bank were off 109 00:05:35,720 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 2: about one percent, Aines actually dropped slightly, but all the 110 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:42,040 Speaker 2: banks are still some way below their recent peaks and 111 00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:45,520 Speaker 2: their recent peaks of Wednesday Thursday last week. 112 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:46,599 Speaker 3: The big four. 113 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:50,000 Speaker 2: Banks represent four of the six largest companies on the bors, 114 00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:53,000 Speaker 2: so what they do really matters. National Australia Bank is 115 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:55,840 Speaker 2: off nine percent over the past week, Commonwealth Banks off 116 00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:58,200 Speaker 2: eight percent, west Pack and ains that are off seven percent. 117 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:01,160 Speaker 2: That's a lot of value out of the market in 118 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:02,000 Speaker 2: those five days. 119 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:05,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, certainly is What about international markets? What's the latest? 120 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:09,239 Speaker 2: Well, Michael, yesterday we talked about how the Japanese market 121 00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:13,200 Speaker 2: fell thirteen percent on Monday. Yesterday it was up ten percent. 122 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:16,520 Speaker 2: Exporters like tech companies and audio makers leading the way. 123 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:19,320 Speaker 2: Come see co'msar, easy, come, easy go. 124 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:20,280 Speaker 3: Whoever you want to put. 125 00:06:20,279 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 1: Up and down like a fiddler's elbow, Sean. 126 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:26,920 Speaker 3: I've never heard like a fiddler's elbow. 127 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:30,599 Speaker 2: The Japanese market is very much like a fiddler's elbow. 128 00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:33,479 Speaker 1: Oh, I'm glad I could contribute something to the show. 129 00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:36,200 Speaker 1: To the show today, here you are providing all of 130 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:38,880 Speaker 1: this kind of analysis and insight and all the latest 131 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:40,960 Speaker 1: kind of news, and all I give you is a 132 00:06:41,000 --> 00:06:41,679 Speaker 1: fiddler's elbow. 133 00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:43,960 Speaker 3: Elbow, I like it, though I might use it myself. 134 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 2: Oils also recovered somewhat from its seven month low earlier 135 00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:51,360 Speaker 2: in the week. Attention is now very much refocusing on 136 00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:53,440 Speaker 2: the troubles in the Middle East. Brent's trading around seventy 137 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:56,120 Speaker 2: eight US dollars a barrel. Traders are still bracing for 138 00:06:56,360 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 2: retaliatory action by Iran and regional militias on Israel. That's 139 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:05,679 Speaker 2: after the assassinations of HESBLA and HMAS officials, although Teyran 140 00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:08,280 Speaker 2: has come out and reiterated it wants to avoid all 141 00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 2: our war. Gold come back a bit. It's trading around 142 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:13,440 Speaker 2: twenty four hundred US doll's announced. The Aussie as I 143 00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:16,680 Speaker 2: mentioned before, is around sixty five US. Since cryptos are 144 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 2: also down. They came off a lot yesterday and they're 145 00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:23,520 Speaker 2: still down. Bitcoins trading around fifty five thousand US dollars 146 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:23,920 Speaker 2: a unit. 147 00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 1: Sean, speaking of news and analysis and insight. There has 148 00:07:27,640 --> 00:07:31,000 Speaker 1: never been a more important time to head along to 149 00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:33,560 Speaker 1: the Fear and Greed website Fearangreed dot com dot Au 150 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:36,400 Speaker 1: and sign up for our free weekly newsletter because it 151 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:38,200 Speaker 1: comes out today. It comes out in just a couple 152 00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:41,960 Speaker 1: of hours time mid morning. It's more than a couple 153 00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:43,800 Speaker 1: of hours, really, isn't it. But I've round it down. 154 00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 1: But Sean, the podcast is all about the news. The 155 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:50,880 Speaker 1: newsletter is the views, and so that's why I think 156 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:54,240 Speaker 1: it's it is absolutely vital. Go to the website, sign up. 157 00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:57,600 Speaker 1: The newsletter is entirely free, and you will be privy 158 00:07:57,960 --> 00:08:02,120 Speaker 1: to everything that is going on inside Sean Aylmer's head. 159 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:06,400 Speaker 2: And it's quite a ride up there, I've got to 160 00:08:06,440 --> 00:08:06,760 Speaker 2: tell you. 161 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:08,560 Speaker 3: Oh, it's quite a ride. 162 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:11,840 Speaker 1: It feels like we need a sealed section, a sealed 163 00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:14,119 Speaker 1: section of the newsletter, just like dolling. 164 00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:17,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, there a section that you can put some spice 165 00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 2: into or something, because there's a lot of really boring stuff. 166 00:08:19,520 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 2: In my mind, I just. 167 00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:25,640 Speaker 1: I led us there, and then once I did, I 168 00:08:25,640 --> 00:08:26,520 Speaker 1: didn't want to be there. 169 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:27,520 Speaker 3: I'm trying to get us out. 170 00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:32,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, goodness. May anyway, go to the website Fearinggreed dot 171 00:08:32,040 --> 00:08:33,839 Speaker 1: com dot. Are you sign up for the newsletter. It's 172 00:08:33,880 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 1: out this morning, so now's the perfect opportunity to do it. 173 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:38,360 Speaker 1: In the meantime, Sean, We'll be back in a moment 174 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:47,959 Speaker 1: with the rest of the day's business news. Sean universities 175 00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:51,520 Speaker 1: are warning that fourteen thousand jobs could go as the 176 00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:55,280 Speaker 1: government pushes ahead with its plan to cap international student numbers, 177 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:59,240 Speaker 1: a policy that institutions say will have a catastrophic effect 178 00:08:59,280 --> 00:08:59,840 Speaker 1: on the sector. 179 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:05,120 Speaker 2: University's Australia Chief Executive Luke she told a parliamentary inquiry 180 00:09:05,160 --> 00:09:09,000 Speaker 2: the government was using students as canon fodder and unfairly 181 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:12,280 Speaker 2: blaming them for the housing crisis. He said proposed legislation 182 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:15,560 Speaker 2: to cap international student numbers was pole driven and a 183 00:09:15,559 --> 00:09:18,200 Speaker 2: political smoke screen as a labor government tries to gain 184 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:21,080 Speaker 2: an upper hand in the migration battle ahead of the 185 00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:24,160 Speaker 2: next election. This is according to a report in nine Media. 186 00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:28,200 Speaker 2: She said that even without the proposed student caps, the 187 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:31,920 Speaker 2: government had already taken a sledgehammer to the international education sector, 188 00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:35,600 Speaker 2: with visa grant raids down twenty three percent, or almost 189 00:09:35,640 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 2: sixty thousand students over the past year. He said that 190 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 2: number already represents a four point three billion dollar hit 191 00:09:41,760 --> 00:09:45,400 Speaker 2: to the economy and could cost the university sector alone 192 00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 2: over fourteen thousand jobs. The federal government has since tightened 193 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:52,160 Speaker 2: visa rules to make it harder for international students to 194 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:54,720 Speaker 2: come in the country, as it uses the sector as 195 00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:58,640 Speaker 2: a key mechanism to slash migration. Big battle ahead. 196 00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:02,360 Speaker 1: There, I'm going to say. Anthony Albernezi is under pressure 197 00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:07,160 Speaker 1: Sean to take stern action on Iran's ambassador in Canberra 198 00:10:07,400 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 1: after social media comments which called for a quote wiping 199 00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:14,280 Speaker 1: out of Israelis in Palestine by twenty twenty seven and 200 00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:18,040 Speaker 1: also referred to Israelis as a quote Zionist plague. 201 00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:22,280 Speaker 2: Mister Alberanzi called the comments abhorrent and hateful, saying they 202 00:10:22,280 --> 00:10:25,360 Speaker 2: had no place. The remarks were made by Ambassador Armored 203 00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:28,719 Speaker 2: Sadegi over the weekend, and the Prime Minister said that 204 00:10:28,760 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 2: the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade had held talks 205 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:34,360 Speaker 2: with the ambassador since then, though there's no indication of 206 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:38,480 Speaker 2: any disciplinary action. The Coalition called for him to be 207 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:41,360 Speaker 2: kicked out of the country. Meanwhile, news that the government 208 00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:43,840 Speaker 2: is looking to create a new special visa pathway for 209 00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:47,480 Speaker 2: Palestinians so they don't have to return to Gaza has 210 00:10:47,520 --> 00:10:51,599 Speaker 2: prompted questions over necessary security checks. Yesterday, the government was 211 00:10:51,640 --> 00:10:54,880 Speaker 2: on the defensive. Assistant Minister for Trade Timmeres said that 212 00:10:55,000 --> 00:10:58,720 Speaker 2: Tony Burke, as the Immigration Minister, was laser focused on 213 00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:01,760 Speaker 2: security checks for Palestine and refugees coming from Gaza. 214 00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:06,320 Speaker 1: Thousands of Australian travelers will be granted express entry into 215 00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:09,439 Speaker 1: the United States from late next year after Australia was 216 00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:12,079 Speaker 1: granted access to the US Global Entry Program. 217 00:11:12,440 --> 00:11:14,840 Speaker 2: In the first phase of the deal, about one thousand 218 00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:17,439 Speaker 2: Australians who have traveled to the US five or more 219 00:11:17,480 --> 00:11:20,000 Speaker 2: times than the past twelve months will be granted expedited 220 00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:23,040 Speaker 2: entry into America. A second phase, which requires laws to 221 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:26,359 Speaker 2: be passed in Parliament and Canberra, will allow an unlimited 222 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:29,960 Speaker 2: number of Australians quick entry into the US. According to 223 00:11:30,040 --> 00:11:33,000 Speaker 2: a report in The Financial Review, Australia joins the list 224 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:35,400 Speaker 2: of other nations, including the UK and Singapore that are 225 00:11:35,400 --> 00:11:38,840 Speaker 2: taking part in the program, in which time sensitive transit 226 00:11:38,920 --> 00:11:42,280 Speaker 2: information is shared quickly with the US. It's all about 227 00:11:42,360 --> 00:11:46,280 Speaker 2: boosting business between the two countries. Australia's participation in the 228 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:48,880 Speaker 2: Global Entry Program was announced back in twenty eighteen. Hit 229 00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:51,600 Speaker 2: barriers in twenty twenty during the COVID nineteen pandemic and 230 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:54,320 Speaker 2: its aftermath. Anyway, it's up and running again, makes it 231 00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:57,199 Speaker 2: a lot easier to get in and out of the US. 232 00:11:57,400 --> 00:12:00,839 Speaker 1: Sean Penfold's owner, Treasury Wine Estates, will sell its more 233 00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:05,040 Speaker 1: affordable wine brands, including wolf Blass, Linderman's, Yellow Gland, and 234 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 1: Blossom Hill, as that segment suffers from an exodus of 235 00:12:08,360 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 1: budget strapped drinkers. 236 00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:13,400 Speaker 2: As part of a structural review that Treasury has been 237 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:15,560 Speaker 2: working on for most of this year, it will exit 238 00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:18,200 Speaker 2: its commercial wine brands, and how they put it, they're 239 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:21,439 Speaker 2: basically bottles of one itself around ten bucks. There may 240 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:23,320 Speaker 2: be other sales as well, pending on the review, and 241 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:26,360 Speaker 2: Treasury hopes to outline its future operating model at its 242 00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:29,560 Speaker 2: full year result, which is August fifteen. Consumers globally are 243 00:12:29,559 --> 00:12:32,880 Speaker 2: shifting to higher priced, higher quality bottles of wine, but 244 00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:35,679 Speaker 2: they're actually consuming less as well. Now about seventy five 245 00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 2: percent of Treasury's profit comes from the Penfolds business, which 246 00:12:39,679 --> 00:12:42,640 Speaker 2: has been split out on its own, and also its 247 00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:46,320 Speaker 2: luxury wine portfolio in the United States. Now, the proposed 248 00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:49,360 Speaker 2: investment of the four large commercial brands adds to the 249 00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:52,280 Speaker 2: big changes that are going on in that sector. Last month, 250 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:55,840 Speaker 2: French group panout Ricard said it's selling its Jacob's Creek 251 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:59,319 Speaker 2: brand to Accolade Wines, which is another one of Australia's 252 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 2: big wine players. Certainly lots going on in that segment 253 00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:03,680 Speaker 2: of the market. 254 00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:07,320 Speaker 1: Woodside share price fell more than five percent yesterday to 255 00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:10,559 Speaker 1: its lowest level since early twenty twenty two, after saying 256 00:13:10,559 --> 00:13:13,959 Speaker 1: it'll spend three point seven billion dollars to buy a 257 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:17,040 Speaker 1: low carbon ammonia project in Texas. 258 00:13:17,480 --> 00:13:20,560 Speaker 2: The project is under construction and expects the first batch 259 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:23,240 Speaker 2: of ammonia to be available next year. Now, you know 260 00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:25,080 Speaker 2: the great thing about these sort of stories, I know 261 00:13:25,440 --> 00:13:31,080 Speaker 2: absolutely nothing about ammonia and Texas text and ammonia particularly. 262 00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:32,920 Speaker 1: So it's quite a niche topic, isn't it It is? 263 00:13:33,120 --> 00:13:33,480 Speaker 3: It is? 264 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:37,080 Speaker 2: So did you ammonia so mostly? I mean it's mostly 265 00:13:37,160 --> 00:13:40,600 Speaker 2: used in agriculture as fertilizer, which agg being one of 266 00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:44,160 Speaker 2: the big boom areas over the next decade century or so, 267 00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:47,480 Speaker 2: we need to produce a lot more. So fertilizer really matters, 268 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:51,160 Speaker 2: So ammonia matters. It's also a refrigerant gas and it's 269 00:13:51,240 --> 00:13:54,920 Speaker 2: used in the making of plastics, textiles, and explosives. Interesting, 270 00:13:55,480 --> 00:13:58,440 Speaker 2: it actually is derived from natural gas. I didn't realize 271 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 2: that thing. I definitely didn't know. It's also a major 272 00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:05,800 Speaker 2: producer of CO two. In fact, ammonia production accounts for 273 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:09,800 Speaker 2: around one point eight percent of global carbon dioxide emissions. 274 00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:14,960 Speaker 2: No really, yeah, it's incredible. 275 00:14:14,559 --> 00:14:18,040 Speaker 1: That I am genuinely I know, I know, my kind 276 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:21,480 Speaker 1: of surprised voice and face kind of both looks and 277 00:14:21,520 --> 00:14:24,880 Speaker 1: sound sarcastic, but I'm genuinely surprised by that one point 278 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:27,600 Speaker 1: eight percent just from ammonia production. 279 00:14:27,840 --> 00:14:30,800 Speaker 2: Yeah. Well that's according to the Royal Society of the UK, 280 00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:32,520 Speaker 2: which Who am I to argue with them. 281 00:14:33,040 --> 00:14:34,800 Speaker 1: I'm not going to pick a fight with them. They 282 00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:36,440 Speaker 1: sound very official. Please go on. 283 00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:39,800 Speaker 2: So, companies like Woodside are pushing into what they call 284 00:14:39,880 --> 00:14:44,440 Speaker 2: lower carbon ammonia, so essentially it means manufacturing ammonia but 285 00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:48,880 Speaker 2: actually having a carbon sequestration with it. Now, in this case, 286 00:14:48,920 --> 00:14:51,920 Speaker 2: they're talking about carbon capture and storage, so it's actually 287 00:14:51,920 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 2: not so much the production process reducing the amount of 288 00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 2: carbon that's omitted. It's actually capturing the carbon and doing 289 00:14:58,840 --> 00:15:00,880 Speaker 2: something with it, which is why this is a low 290 00:15:01,560 --> 00:15:05,640 Speaker 2: carbon ammonia plant. I n none about that until I 291 00:15:05,640 --> 00:15:06,720 Speaker 2: did research on this story. 292 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:09,080 Speaker 3: That's great. One of the great things about Fear and Greed. 293 00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:11,320 Speaker 2: And doing this job is you get to find out 294 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:13,120 Speaker 2: all this stuff that you wouldn't know otherwise. 295 00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:14,160 Speaker 3: You Know. 296 00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 1: What I love in particular about that is our bonus podcast, 297 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:21,520 Speaker 1: Ask Fear and Greed, which comes out on Tuesdays and Thursdays. 298 00:15:21,520 --> 00:15:23,440 Speaker 1: So there was an episode out yesterday. It comes out 299 00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:26,120 Speaker 1: midday on a Tuesday and Thursday, and it's where we 300 00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:31,680 Speaker 1: answer listener questions and you've got to go back and 301 00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:34,200 Speaker 1: listen to You have to go back and listen to 302 00:15:34,200 --> 00:15:37,800 Speaker 1: you yesterday's question because it came from Haley and it 303 00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:42,800 Speaker 1: was about when we say that markets have priced in 304 00:15:43,520 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 1: the chance of a rate cut, what does that mean? 305 00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:49,040 Speaker 1: Where does that kind of pricing income from? How do 306 00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:54,400 Speaker 1: you calculate the percentage? And you did a lot of research, it's. 307 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:56,920 Speaker 2: Just it's hard to it's just hard to understand, you know, 308 00:15:57,160 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 2: Like I no, So we did this show and that's fine. 309 00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:03,400 Speaker 3: Last it, I was in the shower and I thought, actually, 310 00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:04,000 Speaker 3: all it is. 311 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:06,360 Speaker 2: You know when you've been doing something and then like 312 00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:09,040 Speaker 2: four hours later or in this case, was like twelve 313 00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:11,000 Speaker 2: hours later just hit me. I thought, all it is 314 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:14,760 Speaker 2: is just like the price of bond relative to the 315 00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:15,840 Speaker 2: benchmark interest rate. 316 00:16:16,800 --> 00:16:18,760 Speaker 3: That's it. It's that gap. 317 00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:22,560 Speaker 1: Anyway, if you want to hear Sean take five minutes 318 00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:28,240 Speaker 1: to increase what you just explained in five seconds, go 319 00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:30,600 Speaker 1: and check out ours Fear and Greed from yesterday because 320 00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:32,160 Speaker 1: it is actually a lot of fun. But it's also 321 00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:34,240 Speaker 1: a way to learn more about a whole bunch of 322 00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:34,840 Speaker 1: different topics. 323 00:16:34,920 --> 00:16:35,760 Speaker 3: We'll be confused. 324 00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:38,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, if there's something that you would like us to 325 00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:40,560 Speaker 1: shed a bit of light on, whether it's about markets 326 00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:43,880 Speaker 1: or economics or anything to do with finance and business, 327 00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:46,120 Speaker 1: then send it on through via the website or our 328 00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:48,160 Speaker 1: social media platforms and we will get to it. And 329 00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 1: yesterday was really just a treat, wasn't it, Sean. We 330 00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:56,560 Speaker 1: must move on. The Queensland government, facing defeat at the 331 00:16:56,600 --> 00:17:00,920 Speaker 1: October election, is making some fairly drastic promises to turn 332 00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:02,440 Speaker 1: around its ailing fortunes. 333 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:07,639 Speaker 2: I'm loving this election because Steven Miles of Premiere is 334 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:09,840 Speaker 2: promising all sorts of things. 335 00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:12,640 Speaker 3: A little off left field often now. 336 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:15,639 Speaker 2: He used his annual State of State addresses yesterday to 337 00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:18,359 Speaker 2: announce that a re elected Labor government would open twelve 338 00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:22,359 Speaker 2: publicly owned fuel stations. So the government will own the 339 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:25,280 Speaker 2: fuel stations, and they'll introduce a cap on daily petrol 340 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:27,960 Speaker 2: price increases. I've no more than five cents a leater, 341 00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:30,680 Speaker 2: and if a service station is changing prices, it needs 342 00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:32,920 Speaker 2: to release that information a day in advance so you 343 00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:35,960 Speaker 2: can go and get your petrol before it goes up. Now, 344 00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:39,159 Speaker 2: the Liberal National Party opposition called it economic vandalism that 345 00:17:39,200 --> 00:17:42,240 Speaker 2: would push out independent operators. Of course, we've had a 346 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:45,080 Speaker 2: few other crackers from the Queensland government. Of course, the 347 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:48,760 Speaker 2: fifty cent public transport faares which going on at the moment. 348 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:53,080 Speaker 2: There's the thousand dollars electricity rebates to every household. There's 349 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:56,199 Speaker 2: a reduction in car registrations of about twenty percent. You know, 350 00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:58,920 Speaker 2: when the Reserve Bank starts complaining at some point about 351 00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:01,639 Speaker 2: government spending to money, you know where they're going to 352 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:03,200 Speaker 2: be looking at least. 353 00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:06,440 Speaker 1: At least you know that these are some creative ideas. 354 00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:08,480 Speaker 3: Right they are. That's true, that's true. 355 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:11,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, I love a bit of creativity and politics do. 356 00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:13,879 Speaker 2: In a state owned petrol stations and this is nothing 357 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:16,479 Speaker 2: like what they're talking about, but it does sort of 358 00:18:16,520 --> 00:18:21,480 Speaker 2: remind me of some old Soviet nineteen seventies movie where 359 00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:22,680 Speaker 2: people are lining up for. 360 00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:24,640 Speaker 1: Gas to get their fuel rations. 361 00:18:25,280 --> 00:18:26,600 Speaker 3: To get the fuel rations. That's it. 362 00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:31,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, you get like a little cupful every day. Anyway, 363 00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 1: we're getting way off topic here, Sean. We've got a 364 00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:35,919 Speaker 1: few big stories still to get through international news. A 365 00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:39,720 Speaker 1: judge has ruled that Google's ubiquitous search engine has been 366 00:18:39,840 --> 00:18:44,800 Speaker 1: illegally exploiting its dominance to squash competition and stifle innovation, 367 00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:47,520 Speaker 1: in a major decision that has the potential now to 368 00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:51,040 Speaker 1: shake up the Internet and really actually hobble one of 369 00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:52,560 Speaker 1: the world's best known companies. 370 00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:56,560 Speaker 2: The highly anticipated decision, issued by the US District Court 371 00:18:56,600 --> 00:18:58,800 Speaker 2: comes nearly a year after the start of a trial 372 00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:02,760 Speaker 2: pitting the US Justice Department against Google in the country's 373 00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:06,679 Speaker 2: biggest antitrust showdown in a quarter of a century. After 374 00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:10,560 Speaker 2: reviewing reams and reams of evidence that included testimony from 375 00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:15,040 Speaker 2: top executives at Google, Microsoft, Apple during last year's ten 376 00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:21,280 Speaker 2: week trial, Judge Emmett Meta concluded that Google is a monopolist. 377 00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:24,600 Speaker 2: Can hardly say that word, a monopolist, and it has 378 00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:28,200 Speaker 2: acted as one to maintain its monopoly. The judge said 379 00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:31,360 Speaker 2: Google's dominance in the search market is evidence of its monopoly. 380 00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:35,800 Speaker 2: According to report on Associated Press, Google enjoys an eighty 381 00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:38,920 Speaker 2: nine point two percent share of the market for general 382 00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:43,320 Speaker 2: search services ninety four point nine percent on mobile devices. 383 00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:46,960 Speaker 2: The ruling said it represents a big setback for Google 384 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:50,320 Speaker 2: and its parent Alphabet, which argued its popularity stemmed from 385 00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:54,840 Speaker 2: consumer's overwhelming desire to use a search engine so good 386 00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:57,159 Speaker 2: at what it does that it has become synonymous with 387 00:19:57,240 --> 00:20:01,520 Speaker 2: looking things up online. Google's search and processes and estimated 388 00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:05,520 Speaker 2: eight and a half billion queries per day, nearly double 389 00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 2: its daily volume from twelve years ago. Google does intend 390 00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:11,720 Speaker 2: to appeal the findings, but we've been waiting for this one, 391 00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:12,800 Speaker 2: and it's a big one. 392 00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:17,439 Speaker 1: It certainly is now. Starbucks Sean is finding the going tough, 393 00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:22,640 Speaker 1: suffering second straight quarterly drop in sales, increasing pressure now 394 00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:23,840 Speaker 1: on the group's leadership team. 395 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:28,280 Speaker 2: The world's largest coffee chain cited a cautious consumer environment 396 00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:32,160 Speaker 2: when reporting a three percent drop in global comparable sales 397 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:33,760 Speaker 2: for the three months at the end of June, the 398 00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:37,399 Speaker 2: previous the March quarter that was off four percent. The 399 00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:41,800 Speaker 2: disappointing results come with Starbucks negotiates with an activist investor, 400 00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:45,359 Speaker 2: Elliott Investment Management, which has been seeking changes at the 401 00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:49,439 Speaker 2: board level and at the management level. The board and 402 00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:53,040 Speaker 2: management have also faced public critique from Howard Schultz. Now 403 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:56,080 Speaker 2: he's quite famous in Starbucks. He's three times he's been 404 00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:59,000 Speaker 2: the chief executive. He's done it, left, done it, left again, 405 00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:01,600 Speaker 2: then came back. They keeping back to help build up 406 00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:03,280 Speaker 2: the company. He first took the reins in nine to 407 00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:08,760 Speaker 2: eighty five. He remains its sixth largest shareholder. But Starbucks 408 00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:11,560 Speaker 2: isn't quite ubiquitous with coffee, but certainly the best known 409 00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:13,560 Speaker 2: coffee chain seems to be struggling a bit. 410 00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:16,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, all right. Up next is the Fear and Greed 411 00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:20,120 Speaker 1: Daily Interview. Your guest today, Lucy Ellis chief economist at 412 00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:22,600 Speaker 1: Westpac and former chief economist at the Reserve Bank. 413 00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:26,720 Speaker 2: It's a fantastic insight into how the Reserve Bank thinks 414 00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:30,560 Speaker 2: and what's going on around interest rates following yesterday's announcement 415 00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:32,320 Speaker 2: that interest rates are on hold and will be on 416 00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:33,240 Speaker 2: hold for some time. 417 00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:35,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, it is a must listen. It is up next 418 00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:37,840 Speaker 1: in the Fear and Greed Playlist on your podcast platform 419 00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:40,200 Speaker 1: or at Fearangreed dot com dot au, which is also 420 00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:43,600 Speaker 1: where you sign up for the free weekly newsletter out 421 00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:45,639 Speaker 1: a little bit later on today. Thank you very much, Sean. 422 00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:46,679 Speaker 3: Thank you, Michael. 423 00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:49,280 Speaker 1: It is Wednesday, the seventh of August twenty twenty four. 424 00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:52,000 Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us 425 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:56,040 Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. Michael Thompson 426 00:21:56,040 --> 00:22:00,119 Speaker 1: and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.