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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed, Summer investing series brought to

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Speaker 1: you by VANTA Specialists and Compliance lead Growth. I'm Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 1: Twenty twenty four was a biggie for investors. Local and

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Speaker 1: global markets hit new records, so too golden Bitcoin. So

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Speaker 1: what does twenty twenty five hold for investors? As always,

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Speaker 1: this is general information only and you should seek independent

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Speaker 1: advice before making investment decisions. Grady Wolf is a market

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Speaker 1: analyst at Bell Direct. Grady, welcome back to Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 2: Thanks having me.

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Speaker 1: So what would the highlights for the last twelve months

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Speaker 1: before we get into the next twelve months? What highlights

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Speaker 1: for twenty twenty four?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's been a pretty interesting year.

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Speaker 3: Obviously, inflation drivers have started to ease, which is a

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Speaker 3: great thing.

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Speaker 2: Interest rate cards are on the horizon, or they have

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Speaker 2: been happening in the US and obviously in Australia they're

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Speaker 2: hopefully on the horizon. But we've had retail strength, which

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Speaker 2: absolutely surprised the market because apparently Australians kept all their

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Speaker 2: COVID money in their pockets, so now we've seen that

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Speaker 2: finally running out as retail spend eases. But that voted

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Speaker 2: well for our retailers and consumer discretionary stocks. Then obviously

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Speaker 2: we have the Trump election, which really put a spanner

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Speaker 2: in the works for all markets around the world, and

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Speaker 2: locally we've seen the ASX a record highs. So a

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Speaker 2: lot of things have been at play, but I think

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Speaker 2: the biggest tail as well was China. China expect to

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Speaker 2: come back in last year, expected recovery this year just

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Speaker 2: hasn't happened yet. So what we need to see is

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Speaker 2: their recovery next year for all our big iron all miners,

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Speaker 2: our miners out there. So a lot of play this year,

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Speaker 2: but it's been a very big year.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So the next twelve months, what are you looking for?

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Speaker 2: I'm looking for inflationary drivers continuing to ease, so the

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Speaker 2: ones that remains sticky. In Australia where wages priced inflation,

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Speaker 2: services inflation, input cost inflation, retail spenders I said, has

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Speaker 2: started to come down, but those were all the key drivers.

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Speaker 2: Housing inflation is one that isn't likely to come down

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Speaker 2: anytime soon. So we've got a bit of a trouble

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Speaker 2: there for the RBA because immigration's really high at the moment,

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Speaker 2: and obviously where that puts pressure on our crisis, So

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Speaker 2: that's one that I think the RBA is not going

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Speaker 2: to quite consider when it comes to the intro straight outlook.

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Speaker 2: But I'm waiting for inflationary pressures to come down. So

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Speaker 2: what we're expecting is a cut from the RBA, hopefully

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Speaker 2: mid next year. But I don't want to get too

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Speaker 2: optimistic because as we saw in the last week, we

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Speaker 2: had the FED cut their outlook for two for interestraight

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Speaker 2: cuts next year from four to two, and markets responded

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Speaker 2: very negatively. So that just goes to show that markets

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Speaker 2: are so reactive and responsive to news and noise in

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Speaker 2: the markets and any rate outlook. So it's a very

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Speaker 2: rate driven market right now. Otherwise next year.

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Speaker 3: I'm also looking for Copper is our kind of commodity

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Speaker 3: of the minute at the moment, So a copper a

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Speaker 3: demand at the moment is growing, and there's an under

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Speaker 3: supply of short term producers, so there's not enough production.

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Speaker 3: There's not enough miners out there producing high grade copper

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Speaker 3: to meet this demand increase over the next few years.

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Speaker 3: So the thing to know about copper, mind is it

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Speaker 3: takes about seventeen years to get a copper mine up

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Speaker 3: and running and producing compared to lithium, which is about

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Speaker 3: four years so at the moment. We obviously have the

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Speaker 3: lithium price down at the moment and that's looking to

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Speaker 3: be subdued for the next few years. But copper, on

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Speaker 3: the other hand, is looking to increase because its use

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Speaker 3: is what is extensive in the green energy transitions. So

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Speaker 3: we do need to see we do expect to see

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Speaker 3: an uplift in copper and demand for copper, so that

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Speaker 3: will put a lot of our miners on the forefront

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Speaker 3: of investors' minds next year.

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Speaker 2: We also are looking for the tech sector. Obviously, the

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Speaker 2: tech sector had the biggest run of twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 2: I think it ended up about fifty eight percent, so

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Speaker 2: that was insane. But there is still room to grow

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Speaker 2: because as we saw recently, Broadcomm's results came out and

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Speaker 2: there one of the chip makers in I think it's

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Speaker 2: in Asia, and their outlook is really strong and they've

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Speaker 2: still got growth on the horizon. So that says there's

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Speaker 2: more room to grow because the semic enough to space

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Speaker 2: AI space is not getting going anywhere or getting any

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Speaker 2: smaller anytime soon, so that really drives to our winds

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Speaker 2: for the sector. So I see potential growth up there.

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Speaker 2: The financials are one area.

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Speaker 3: I'll we keeping in I on as well, because obviously

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Speaker 3: our big banks every investors treated them as a safe

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Speaker 3: haven asset in twenty twenty four, so naturally the valuations

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Speaker 3: are just simply overvalued across the ball. So I think

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Speaker 3: what we'll see is people won't sell the banks, but

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Speaker 3: I don't see as much drive coming to the banks.

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Speaker 3: We saw net interest margin peaked as well, and we're

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Speaker 3: obviously expecting rate cuts on the horizon, which doesn't bode

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Speaker 3: well for all of our big banks. So again we're

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Speaker 3: expecting a bit of a pullback in the financial sector.

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Speaker 3: And another area, the final area I'm looking at is

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Speaker 3: M and A activity, because this year we saw a

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Speaker 3: lot of m and A activity from the big miners

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Speaker 3: into smaller miners, in green energy transition exposure so Rio

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Speaker 3: obviously into lithium BHPN to copper, and just across the

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Speaker 3: board we're seeing all these big names like even JB

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Speaker 3: High Fires acquiring n S the seventy five percent stake

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Speaker 3: in E and S. So we're seeing a lot of

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Speaker 3: exposure and a lot of M and A activity, So

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Speaker 3: I expect a lot more of that will be on

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Speaker 3: the horizon next year with the lack of IPOs at

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Speaker 3: the moment, so I think the big players looking to

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Speaker 3: scoop up the little players and really really expand their

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Speaker 3: portfolios in revenue drivers.

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Speaker 1: Fantastic, Grady, thank you for your time this morning.

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Speaker 2: Thanks so much for having me.

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Speaker 1: That was Grady Wolf, market analyst at Bell Direct. Remember

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Speaker 1: to get your own independent advice before making decisions. This

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Speaker 1: is Fear and Greed Summer Investing series, brought to you

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Speaker 1: com backslash Fear and Greed. I'm Sean Elmer, and joy

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Speaker 1: your day.