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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. The local share market hits

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Speaker 1: a new record high, the cost of generating electricity in

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Speaker 1: Australia sores, and President Donald Trump orders the building of

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Speaker 1: a detention camp at Guantanamo Bay Naval Base in Cuba.

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Speaker 1: Plus Prime Minister Anthony Abernezi classifies the discovery of a

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Speaker 1: caravan full of explosives and the addresses of Jewish buildings

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Speaker 1: as terrorism. And a passenger jet collides with a military

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Speaker 1: helicopter in Washington, DC. Welcome to Fear and Greed, daily

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Speaker 1: business news for people who make their own decisions. It

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Speaker 1: is Friday, the thirty first of January twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, Sean the.

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Speaker 1: Main story this morning. The Australian share market hit a

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Speaker 1: record high yesterday, with investors buoyed by hopes of interest

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Speaker 1: rate cuts next month. Is a bit of optimism out there,

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Speaker 1: Sean sure is.

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Speaker 2: Around lunchtime yesterday, the S and p AX two hundred

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Speaker 2: hit eight five hundred and fifteen point one points before

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Speaker 2: closing up half a percent, just under that eighty five

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Speaker 2: hundred point mark that surpassed the highs of December last

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Speaker 2: year been a very strong start to the year for

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Speaker 2: the AX. Now January is almost over. By the end

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Speaker 2: of today it will be over. The market's up more

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Speaker 2: than four percent so far in twenty twenty five. If

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Speaker 2: we did that every month, what four times twelve forty

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Speaker 2: eight percent for the year, would be pretty happy with that.

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Speaker 1: Is that is an impressive start to the when you

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Speaker 1: put it like that, Sean, Yeah, we've had an impressive

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Speaker 1: start to the year, right.

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Speaker 2: I reckon, I reckon again. It's the bank's leading the

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Speaker 2: way man. You can't stop them. Come off. Bank and

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Speaker 2: Westpac are both up nearly five percent this year. National

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Speaker 2: Australia Bank and A and Z are up nearly eight percent,

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Speaker 2: a bit like last year. The goal companies have also

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Speaker 2: done well. Northern Star, which is the biggest goal company

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Speaker 2: in this country, it's up nearly ten percent this time around. Though.

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Speaker 2: We also have consumer discretionary companies there, corporates that do

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Speaker 2: well when the economic cycle improves. Well, they're sheuning the

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Speaker 2: lights out. WEHS, Farmers, Aristocrat Leisure both up eight percent,

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Speaker 2: JB hi Fi up nine percent, Harvey Norman up twelve percent.

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Speaker 2: That's the sector which has done best of the eleven

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Speaker 2: sub indices of the AX. They've had some friends, you know.

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Speaker 2: Fortes Kew middles is up five percent as on on

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Speaker 2: all prices have risen. The HP and Rail are actually flat,

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Speaker 2: so ford Eskuw has outperformed the other big miners. Goodman

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Speaker 2: was having a great day until the well, a great

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Speaker 2: year until the past few days when questions arose about

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Speaker 2: the demand for data centers. It's up just one percent

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Speaker 2: for twenty twenty five. Just a few of the other

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Speaker 2: large cap Csell and Tesla, Jessel and Tesla Michael. That's

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Speaker 2: the problem with Telstra nowadays is that you always get

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Speaker 2: Telstra and Tesla mixed up.

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Speaker 1: And the funny thing is we talk so much more

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Speaker 1: now about that is than we do about Telstra Telstra.

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Speaker 1: We might mention once every two weeks or something, and

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Speaker 1: test lasts every second day, every second day.

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Speaker 2: You are right, well, Sayzel and Telstra are lower this year,

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Speaker 2: while Macquarie Bank is flat.

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Speaker 1: Show on this rise. Is it mostly being driven by

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Speaker 1: the interest rate expectations? Or is there I'm kind of

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Speaker 1: leading you somewhere here? Is there a host of things?

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Speaker 2: There could be a host of things. There are two

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Speaker 2: main things really and the interest rate, the prospects of

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Speaker 2: a rate cut in the middle of next month. That's

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Speaker 2: certainly been driving it over the past thirty six hours

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Speaker 2: or so. Of course, we've got those benign inflation figures

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Speaker 2: on Wednesday. All four major banks Westpac, National, Australia Bank,

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Speaker 2: a SED and komof Bank are now predicting a rate

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Speaker 2: cut in about three weeks time. There's also been a

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Speaker 2: general boost from the election of Donald Trump. Everyone seems

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Speaker 2: to be focusing on the good stuff, like lower corporate

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Speaker 2: tax rates, ignoring the tariff stuff, so that might come

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Speaker 2: home to ruist. It's not totally rational. So in a

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Speaker 2: market where rates are expected to fall, banks theoretically aren't

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Speaker 2: supposed to outperform, but they are now. Consumer discretionary companies

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Speaker 2: like we talked about Jbhifi, Harvey Norman, Where's Farmer's, Aristocrat Leisure,

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Speaker 2: they should do well and they are, so that's sort

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Speaker 2: of working. Consumer staples, Willies, Coals, those boring companies shouldn't

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Speaker 2: do well, and they're not. So that's the same deal

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Speaker 2: with utilities. Gold stocks are rising just on the back

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Speaker 2: of the precious metal, so some of the movements are

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Speaker 2: quite rational. Consumer discretionary consumer staples. Some are not so rational.

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Speaker 2: Think Becks banks that I think, I said, think Becks,

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Speaker 2: which I think is like one of those old English

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Speaker 2: tablets it took for Becks and a lie down.

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Speaker 1: Becks and a lie down.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we're all over the place this morning.

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Speaker 1: You are showing your age, Sean.

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Speaker 2: The trick at the moment, though, is that the stock

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Speaker 2: market is priced for perfection and we have earning season

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Speaker 2: just around the corner. So if corporates disappoint, you are

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Speaker 2: going to see some serious volatility on the share market.

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Speaker 2: Morning Star reckons at the Aussie market is about nine

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Speaker 2: percent overvalued. It reckons that the Aussie market is relatively

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Speaker 2: expensive compared to Wall Street, so plenty could go wrong.

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Speaker 2: It's going to be a fun earning season which starts

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Speaker 2: in about a fortnite.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, now that's the local market, Sean. What's happening in

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Speaker 1: international markets? The big news out of the US is

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Speaker 1: that the Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold at

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Speaker 1: its January meeting yesterday. Morning chaired Your Own Power said

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Speaker 1: he'd like to see further progress on inflation before considering

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Speaker 1: an interest rate cut. He said rates may not move well.

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Speaker 1: He said, rates are on hold for the foreseeable future.

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Speaker 1: There's worries in the US about the re emergence of inflation.

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Speaker 1: Put on top of that Donald Trump's tariff or the

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Speaker 1: prospect of tariffs under Donald Trump, and inflation is becoming

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Speaker 1: a bit more of a concern in the world because

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Speaker 1: the economy once again. Donald Trump wasn't impressed with the

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Speaker 1: fact that the FED didn't cut interest rates. He posted,

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Speaker 1: I quote, if the FED had spent less time on

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Speaker 1: gender ideology, green energy, and fake climate change, inflation would

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Speaker 1: never have been a problem.

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Speaker 2: End quote. There's also a bunch of tech companies reporting

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Speaker 2: over the past thirty six hours on Wall Street Worth

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Speaker 2: running through some of the big ones tests that said

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Speaker 2: it was on track to roll out new cheaper evs

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Speaker 2: in the first half of this year, but its quarterly

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Speaker 2: profit actually fell short of expectations. They've been had to

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Speaker 2: do a lot of discounting Tesla to move units men as.

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Speaker 2: Mark Zuckerberg was very upbeat about the group's artificial intelligence strategy,

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Speaker 2: but he unveiled a disappointing sales forecast, and Microsoft set

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Speaker 2: his cloud computing business will continue to grow slowly in

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Speaker 2: the current quarter as the company struggles to build enough

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Speaker 2: data centers to handle demand for its AI products.

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Speaker 1: Sean, You've got an interview coming up after the show,

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Speaker 1: and this is an interesting one, particularly as it relates

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Speaker 1: to investors. You're speaking with Estelle Parker, who is the

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Speaker 1: co CEO of the Responsible Investment Association Australasia. Quite a mouthful.

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Speaker 2: It is very topical given some of the pronouncements from

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump. So it's about investors thinking about being responsible

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Speaker 2: when they're investing. Now that might be around things like ESG,

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Speaker 2: it might be around climate change, it might be around

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Speaker 2: diversity inclusion, gender issues, those sorts of things. Obviously these

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Speaker 2: have come to the four because Donald Trump is winding

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Speaker 2: some of the back some of the legislation in the

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Speaker 2: US around it. So I ask Estelle about that, and

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Speaker 2: it just seems that certainly there hasn't been much of

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Speaker 2: a change here in Australia. In fact, that whole responsible

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Speaker 2: investing segment is growing and the returns are great. So

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Speaker 2: it's a good chat.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and some interesting comments as well about the role

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Speaker 1: that institutional investors are playing in driving that growth as well.

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Speaker 1: So the scale of it is certainly increasing. That's coming

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Speaker 1: up after the show, Sean. So stick around for that one.

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Speaker 1: We've got plenty more still to come. We are talking

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Speaker 1: politics and crypto and power prices, plenty to get through.

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Speaker 1: We'll be back in a moment with the rest of

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Speaker 1: the day's business news. Sean Prime Minister Anthony Abernezi has

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Speaker 1: classified the incident this week whereby explosives and a list

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Speaker 1: of Jewish sites were found in a caravan in northwestern

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Speaker 1: Sydney as terrorism.

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Speaker 2: The Prime Minister held a National Security Committee meeting yesterday morning.

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Speaker 2: He wouldn't comment on the operation involving the caravan. Now

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Speaker 2: police haven't designated it as terrorism, but the Prime Minister

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Speaker 2: and New South Wales Premier Chris Mins have called it

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Speaker 2: that a man is in custody involving the find. In fact,

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Speaker 2: he was in custody before police went to that particular location.

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Speaker 2: Notwithstanding the discovery, Azio said the national terrorism threat will

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Speaker 2: remain at probable for the immediate future. The Prime Minister

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Speaker 2: condemned their recent spate of anti Semitic hate crime that's

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Speaker 2: going on. He said perpetrators should be hunted down and

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Speaker 2: locked up. One hundred percent agree with him on that. One.

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Speaker 2: Opposition leader Peter Darton accused Anthony Alberinesi of ignoring a

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Speaker 2: rise in anti Semitism, saying that the situation has escalated Sean.

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Speaker 1: The federal opposition has promised to be a friend of

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Speaker 1: cryptocurrencies and will prioritize legislation to protect buyers of bitcoin

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Speaker 1: and other digital assets.

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Speaker 2: Luke Howarth, the coalition's financial services spokesman, told an event

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Speaker 2: on Wednesday evening that supporting the crypto industry and the

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Speaker 2: use of blockchain technology was a quote long standing priority

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Speaker 2: for the coalition and it will continue to be a

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Speaker 2: priority under the dunt government end quote. Now that's according

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Speaker 2: to the fin Review. Maybe they're learning from the Trump

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Speaker 2: administration because under Trump, the regulator in the US, the

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Speaker 2: Security as an Exchange Commission, has flipped from pursuing crypto

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Speaker 2: exchanges for breaches of the law to developing a regulatory framework.

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Speaker 2: That's effectively what mister Howth Howarth is talking about here,

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Speaker 2: developing a regulatory framework if the Dutton government or the

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Speaker 2: coalition wins government. For its part, the alban Easy government

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Speaker 2: has promised to introduce laws to establish clearer rules for

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Speaker 2: crypto assets.

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Speaker 1: Just staying in politics quickly showing the federal government as

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Speaker 1: promising to give Victoria two and a half billion dollars

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Speaker 1: in additional education funding over the next ten years.

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Speaker 2: On announcing it yesterday, Education Minister Jason Claire called it

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Speaker 2: a big day for public schools in the state. He

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Speaker 2: said it will turn around the decline in teenagers not

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Speaker 2: finishing school in Victoria. Man, My Assistant Treasury Stephen James,

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Speaker 2: will retire from Parliament at the next federal election, setting

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Speaker 2: the stage for a reshuffle of mister Albenzi's economics team. That,

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Speaker 2: of course, is if the ALP wins the next poll.

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Speaker 2: Stephen Jon's been in camp for fifteen years, elected in

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Speaker 2: twenty ten. Good luck to him.

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Speaker 1: Fifteen years is a long time.

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Speaker 2: Oh, it is a long time, isn't it. Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Goodness. When you think about kind of how many elections

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Speaker 1: have been during that time, and just the amount of

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Speaker 1: politicking and all of the infighting and all of this

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Speaker 1: all separate to kind of actual kind of policy and

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Speaker 1: passing of policies and legislative agendas and things like that,

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Speaker 1: all the behind the scenes stuff, it would weigh you down, right.

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Speaker 2: Although sometimes I wonder fifteen years is like the middle range.

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Speaker 2: I can understand someone going for a term or two

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Speaker 2: and thinking this isn't for me, yes, and I understand

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Speaker 2: someone going for forty years yep, yeah, but the fifteen

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Speaker 2: years is the middle range, I reckon.

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Speaker 1: It's quite curious then.

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Speaker 2: I generally think politicians and Stephen Jones I'm sure can

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Speaker 2: be included in this, not that I know him at all.

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Speaker 2: I think they work really hard. They get a bad

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Speaker 2: rap obviously, but a lot of time away from family,

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Speaker 2: a lot of time around policy debates, that type of thing,

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Speaker 2: and I admire people who are willing to do that generally. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: good on him.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and a lot of time being answerable to a

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Speaker 1: whole lot of people that in the end you have

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Speaker 1: to be open to conversations with every single person that

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Speaker 1: you pass in the street, that kind of thing, and

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Speaker 1: it really is. It's not just a job.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Anyway, sean into a politician appreciation society. We will get

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Speaker 1: back to business now. With mineral resources debt there has

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Speaker 1: grown to five billion dollars as it builds its export

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Speaker 1: hub in Western Australia and battles weak commodity prices and

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Speaker 1: governance concerns.

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Speaker 2: So it's building two point six billion dollars to create

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Speaker 2: an export hub in Wa in the Pilbra. It will

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Speaker 2: export iron ore and lift him from there. This is

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Speaker 2: the company who has had all sorts of corporate governance issues.

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Speaker 2: It's emerged over the last few days at founder and

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Speaker 2: managing director Chris Ellison, who has about eleven percent of

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Speaker 2: the company, has been issued a Section nineteen notice by

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Speaker 2: the corporate regulator ASSEK that means he's under formal investigation.

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Speaker 2: That's over alleged offshore tax evasion schemes that he benefited

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Speaker 2: from that came to light last year. As a result

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Speaker 2: of that, mister Elson has said he will step down

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Speaker 2: within eighteen months. Before that story broke, Minres's share price

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Speaker 2: was more than four bucks. Today it's kind of just

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Speaker 2: over two dollars thirty, so it really has had a

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Speaker 2: fall from grace. Now. The dropping lithium prices hasn't helped,

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Speaker 2: So it's not just about the governance issues. It's now

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Speaker 2: finding itself in a position where it's got really high

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Speaker 2: debt level of five billion dollars. That's notwithstanding it actually

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Speaker 2: got a one point one billion dollars for selling a

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Speaker 2: stake in its one hundred and forty seven kilometer private

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Speaker 2: railroad in the Pilbra. But a lot going on for

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Speaker 2: that company, from governance to weak prices to management change.

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Speaker 1: Ye, there certainly is now. The cost of generating electricity

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Speaker 1: across Australia's grid over the final three months of last

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Speaker 1: year rose more than eighty percent. Isn't that staggering? It

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Speaker 1: was amid very high demand and an all time low

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Speaker 1: availability of coal power.

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Speaker 2: The Australian Energy Market Operated releases the figures. It doesn't

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Speaker 2: mean that we will immediately see higher bills, but will

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Speaker 2: certainly put upput pressure on household and business bills across

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Speaker 2: the market. The average cost was eighty eight dollars per

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Speaker 2: Mega what hour. Now, to most of us that probably

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Speaker 2: doesn't mean anything. What's interesting is how much more expensive

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Speaker 2: it is in some states when things go wrong. So

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Speaker 2: at the end of last year, New South Wales compared

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Speaker 2: to that eighty eight bucks, New South Wales was one

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Speaker 2: hundred and forty three dollars per Mega what hour. That's

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Speaker 2: because the state's two largest coal generators experienced prolonged issues,

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Speaker 2: including outages. Queensland was one hundred and twenty seven victim

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Speaker 2: Tory was down to forty five, which is actually a

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Speaker 2: lot for that state, but clearly way below New South

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Speaker 2: Wales and Queensland regulated set what's known as a default

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Speaker 2: market offer. They take into account higher wholesale prices that

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Speaker 2: we saw, so that there'll be a lot of pressure

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Speaker 2: for the regulator to push that through to higher retail prices.

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Speaker 2: Doesn't mean they necessarily will. The other part of this

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Speaker 2: story which I find really interesting, so New South Wales

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Speaker 2: bayswater and helped me out the other.

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Speaker 1: Coal power in New South Wales.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, rushing a rushing a ring basis, So they were

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Speaker 2: both they had our diges last year. And it's amazing

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Speaker 2: when you take coal out of the system just how

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Speaker 2: expensive energy becomes. And of course we're talking about taking

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Speaker 2: these coal powers offline in the next few years. So

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Speaker 2: it's a real life example of the treacherous path of

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Speaker 2: keeping energy prices down that we face when we take

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Speaker 2: coal out of the system.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the pressure is certainly on now. Speaking of pressure, Sean,

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Speaker 1: you mentioned earlier that earning season is only what fortnite away,

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Speaker 1: and ahead of earning season there's plenty of company announcements.

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Speaker 1: May I put you under a certain amount of time

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Speaker 1: pressure and give you forty seconds run to give us

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Speaker 1: some highlights of the company announcements that we've seen in

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Speaker 1: the last twenty four hours. I'm going to start your timer.

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Speaker 1: In fact, I started it three seconds ago.

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Speaker 2: Okay, we better talk about zip Co, the buying now

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Speaker 2: pay later a group. Its share price fell twenty five

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Speaker 2: percent yesterday after its second quarter results disappointed Perpetual the

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Speaker 2: fund manager. It reported a rise in tuttal assets under

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Speaker 2: management to two hundred and thirty billion dollars, but that

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Speaker 2: was mostly because of positive currency movements. There was actually

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Speaker 2: a net outflow of three point eight billion dollars. Not

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Speaker 2: so good there. The other one to get into this

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Speaker 2: forty seconds, the deck collector Group Credit Corp. Announced the

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Speaker 2: disappointing collections figure. Its share price fell twelve percent yesterday.

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Speaker 1: You've got a nine second kind of surplus there, yeah, okay,

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Speaker 1: go for I was going to invite you to share

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Speaker 1: some more information, and he said, decided to.

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Speaker 2: Sing for us elevated music.

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Speaker 1: That was glorious, all right. Turning to international news now,

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Speaker 1: Sean President Donald Trump says he is ordering the construction

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Speaker 1: of a massive detention camp with thirty thousand beds that

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Speaker 1: is huge at the Guntanamo Bay Naval Base in Cuba.

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Speaker 1: It'll be the largest US facility of its kind.

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Speaker 2: He made the announcement ahead of signing a bill to

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Speaker 2: expand the number of immigrant detainees held in US custody

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Speaker 2: just for minor property crimes. Mister Trump said the camp

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Speaker 2: would detain the worst criminal illegal aliens threatening the American people.

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Speaker 2: According to The Washington Post, he said, we even don't

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Speaker 2: trust other countries to hold them, and we don't want

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Speaker 2: them coming back, so we're going to send them out

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Speaker 2: to Guantanamo. This will double our capacity immediately. Well, the

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Speaker 2: largest facility in the US network currently has around two

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Speaker 2: thousand beds, so we're going to thirty thousand and one facility.

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Speaker 2: So it's hard way to say, Michael, Guantanamo military site

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Speaker 2: will certainly dwarf any other location.

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Speaker 1: Tragic News sean to finish on A passenger jet with

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Speaker 1: sixty four people aboard collided with an army helicopter while

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Speaker 1: landing at the main airport near Washington, DC, triggering a

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Speaker 1: very large search and rescue operation in the nearby Potomac River.

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Speaker 2: American Airlines that confirmed that sixty passengers and four crew

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Speaker 2: members were on the flight. Three soldiers were board the helicopter.

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Speaker 2: A US official said multiple bodies have been pulled from

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Speaker 2: the water. The mid air crash occurred around nine pm

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Speaker 2: Eastern Standard Time in the US yesterday afternoon Australian time.

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Speaker 2: A regional jet that had departed from Wichita, Kansas collided

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Speaker 2: with the military black Hawk helicopter while it was on

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Speaker 2: approach to an airport runway. What's quite incredible this occurred

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Speaker 2: kind of three miles south of the White House and

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Speaker 2: the Capitol that would have to be some of the

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Speaker 2: most tightly controlled and monitor airspace in the world.

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Speaker 1: Michael, It's extraordinary and a really really tragic story, Sean.

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Speaker 1: Up next is the Fear and Greed Daily interview with

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Speaker 1: Estelle Parker, co CEO of the Responsible Investment Association Australasia.

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Speaker 1: It is in the Fear and Greed playlist on your

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Speaker 1: podcast platform or you can find it at Fearangreed dot

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Speaker 1: com dot au and at midday today as well, there

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Speaker 1: is a new episode of Ask Fear and Greed where

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Speaker 1: we answer listen to questions. Always a good listen. Thank

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Speaker 1: you very much, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Friday, the thirty first of January twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join US

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson,

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Speaker 1: and that was fear and greed. Have a great day.