WEBVTT - Paul Murray Live | 30 April 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:06.760 From the Skyinging Center. This is Paul Murray Live. Hello, 0:00:06.840 --> 0:00:08.640 welcome in to the man k. We've got a lot 0:00:08.640 --> 0:00:10.320 of work to do in the next couple of days. 0:00:10.400 --> 0:00:12.920 Let's see how Australia is going to vote. The early 0:00:13.000 --> 0:00:15.160 vote's been big, but it is not as big as 0:00:15.160 --> 0:00:17.560 some people, including myself, thought it was going to be. 0:00:17.800 --> 0:00:19.880 This is a big part of the election story. We 0:00:20.000 --> 0:00:22.360 get into it in a moment's time. Thank you to 0:00:22.440 --> 0:00:26.320 everyone who watched, participated, to the thousands of people who 0:00:26.320 --> 0:00:28.520 send us emails and it literally was thousands of people. 0:00:28.680 --> 0:00:32.040 Thank you to my executive producer, the wonderful Lucy Boyd, 0:00:32.520 --> 0:00:34.400 and our team for putting together what I thought was 0:00:34.400 --> 0:00:37.239 a great hour of Telly. Nice to see the alternative 0:00:37.240 --> 0:00:40.160 Prime Minister, Pete Dutton sitting here taking questions, but also 0:00:40.440 --> 0:00:43.320 in an environment where he could explain himself and you 0:00:43.320 --> 0:00:44.680 can like it, you can dislike it, vote for it 0:00:44.720 --> 0:00:47.240 and not vote for it. Free country. But it's nice 0:00:47.280 --> 0:00:49.519 not to see the interjections, the yelling, the carrying on. 0:00:49.560 --> 0:00:51.800 He had a chance to explain himself and talk quite 0:00:51.840 --> 0:00:56.880 decently about some pretty serious issues, including experiences that he 0:00:56.960 --> 0:00:59.120 had as a police officer when it came to trying 0:00:59.120 --> 0:01:01.480 to save people from family violence and lighter moments like 0:01:01.560 --> 0:01:04.480 telling stories about his mum and dad, popping over to 0:01:04.720 --> 0:01:07.240 New South Wales to play the Poke's on family holidays. 0:01:07.640 --> 0:01:09.800 Tonight I will keep my comments a little briefer that 0:01:09.880 --> 0:01:12.039 I normally do because I want to get to bromin Bishop. 0:01:12.080 --> 0:01:13.800 I want Brom and Bishop to have a big, hard 0:01:13.880 --> 0:01:16.800 run at things tonight. Linda Scott is here as well. 0:01:17.000 --> 0:01:20.000 I look forward to that fight night on this Wednesday night. 0:01:20.080 --> 0:01:22.000 Tomorrow night is when we will do our final State 0:01:22.040 --> 0:01:24.880 of the Race. That will be with Redbridge, with Michael 0:01:24.920 --> 0:01:27.520 Kroger and with Stephen Conroy. So yes, the footy will 0:01:27.560 --> 0:01:30.120 be on, but I'm not going to hide. Make sure 0:01:30.160 --> 0:01:33.760 you are here tomorrow night or Series Lincoln Recorder, do 0:01:33.840 --> 0:01:35.520 all the things you have to be because tomorrow night 0:01:35.680 --> 0:01:37.759 data da da da da da da data, no one 0:01:37.760 --> 0:01:40.360 will be surprised. But tonight you don't have to go 0:01:40.400 --> 0:01:43.720 too far to find awesome people like the wonderful Meghan Kelly, 0:01:43.760 --> 0:01:46.039 the only place you see here on Aussie TV right. 0:01:45.920 --> 0:01:50.800 Here, Gail King, who went on that vanity project called 0:01:50.800 --> 0:01:53.880 the Blue Origin Flight that you're not allowed to criticize 0:01:53.880 --> 0:01:58.480 her unless you've been Have you been? Have you Let's 0:01:58.480 --> 0:02:00.560 just say I've been. 0:02:02.040 --> 0:02:04.640 All right now before I get into the data. And 0:02:04.640 --> 0:02:07.640 there's lots of it today, including some fascinating stuff about 0:02:07.640 --> 0:02:09.600 what I've been talking about for years now, which is 0:02:09.720 --> 0:02:14.760 preferences and how they can swing elections. But while people 0:02:14.880 --> 0:02:17.760 are voting early and again vote tomorrow. If you know 0:02:17.800 --> 0:02:19.160 which way you're going to go and vote, go and 0:02:19.240 --> 0:02:22.000 vote tomorrow. It's all counted on the same day and 0:02:22.120 --> 0:02:23.440 you don't have to wait a few days for your 0:02:23.520 --> 0:02:26.720 vote to be counted. Okay, we know that there is 0:02:26.760 --> 0:02:28.799 this tectonic battle for the future of our country for 0:02:28.880 --> 0:02:31.480 the next three years between the bloke who's been running 0:02:31.480 --> 0:02:33.079 it for the past three or the bloger wants to 0:02:33.160 --> 0:02:36.120 run it for the next three. But we all know 0:02:36.160 --> 0:02:38.240 that there is one thing that the media loves almost 0:02:38.320 --> 0:02:41.360 more than the horse race. It's the data behind the horse. 0:02:41.160 --> 0:02:46.840 Race, poles, holes, holes, holes. 0:02:46.440 --> 0:02:52.240 And tonight I can reveal to you what another organization 0:02:52.280 --> 0:02:54.080 has been reporting. So I'm not revealing, I'm just pumping 0:02:54.120 --> 0:02:57.720 it up here, you know, the Turnbull Times, the Guardian. Now, 0:02:57.720 --> 0:02:59.760 of course, the only reason exists in Australia is because 0:02:59.760 --> 0:03:02.480 the former Prime minister will he helped to get it 0:03:02.919 --> 0:03:04.720 up off the ground. Here he refers to itness, you 0:03:04.760 --> 0:03:08.480 know the sensible centive. We all know it's the wild left. Well, 0:03:08.480 --> 0:03:11.560 he may be regretting the decision because the one thing 0:03:11.600 --> 0:03:14.880 Australians can agree on is how bad Malcolm Turnbull was 0:03:14.919 --> 0:03:17.639 as a prime minister. In fact, they did a poll 0:03:18.320 --> 0:03:20.600 in amongst all of their other election polling and it 0:03:20.680 --> 0:03:23.440 had a look at all of the former prime ministers 0:03:24.280 --> 0:03:31.680 and guests who came stone motherless last, the miserable Ghost himself. 0:03:34.480 --> 0:03:37.720 He is dead last in a list of our best 0:03:37.960 --> 0:03:41.320 former prime ministers. The order goes as you can see, 0:03:41.800 --> 0:03:47.800 John Howard first, Bob Hawk second, Kevin Rudd third, Julia 0:03:47.880 --> 0:03:57.200 Gillard fourth, Anthony Alberaneze fifth, Tony Abbott sixth, followed by Morrison, Keating, Whitlam, 0:03:57.520 --> 0:04:02.920 Fraser and dead last. How good that the one thing 0:04:02.960 --> 0:04:05.400 we can all agree on, regardless of which way we 0:04:05.480 --> 0:04:07.720 are going to be voting left, right or center at 0:04:07.720 --> 0:04:12.160 this election, is Malcolm Turnbull was the worst Prime minister 0:04:12.520 --> 0:04:17.000 of recent years. The miserable Ghost. Of course, it doesn't 0:04:17.040 --> 0:04:20.040 stop the turbul times constantly turning to him for interviews 0:04:20.120 --> 0:04:23.839 or him angry tweeting, or him even having the balls 0:04:23.880 --> 0:04:26.440 to refer to how boring this election is. Remember it 0:04:26.480 --> 0:04:29.760 was his decision to have an eight week election campaign, 0:04:31.200 --> 0:04:35.400 one where he took a ninety seat majority and barely 0:04:35.440 --> 0:04:38.640 held onto majority government. The bloke who was so sooky. 0:04:38.720 --> 0:04:42.440 Remember he wouldn't even leave the pink house on election night. 0:04:43.800 --> 0:04:45.880 But also another thing that we learned via these poles, 0:04:45.880 --> 0:04:47.960 and again not a right wing think tank. They're published 0:04:48.040 --> 0:04:55.080 in the Guardian, is that Green's voters are miserable. I'm 0:04:55.120 --> 0:04:57.560 not making that up. I'm just going off the evidence. 0:04:59.120 --> 0:05:03.159 They went by affiliation are they asked about how happy 0:05:03.200 --> 0:05:07.400 are you with your life? Overall? Coalition voters happiest of all, 0:05:08.360 --> 0:05:14.200 followed by Labor and then the Greens who are miserable 0:05:14.320 --> 0:05:18.760 about their life compared to the other major parties. That's 0:05:18.800 --> 0:05:22.320 their life overall, in their family life. Look at this, 0:05:22.640 --> 0:05:25.320 Look how happy a Liberal or National Party voter is. 0:05:25.760 --> 0:05:29.440 Compare that to the Labor Party. All those miserable Greens, 0:05:30.440 --> 0:05:32.200 and you know how they're the young cool kids. Well, 0:05:32.240 --> 0:05:37.120 guess who has the worst social life. The Greens the 0:05:37.120 --> 0:05:39.720 best social life, the best life over all, the best 0:05:39.720 --> 0:05:43.479 personal life, and their best family life. This is in 0:05:43.520 --> 0:05:48.839 the Guardian Coalition voters. And of course we know that 0:05:48.880 --> 0:05:51.159 the Greens voters are so miserable because the planet's about 0:05:51.160 --> 0:05:53.240 to explode at any one moment, and they have to 0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:58.760 pretend that they like Adam Bant DJing. Yeah, he's so cool. 0:06:00.120 --> 0:06:02.400 I don't care how many of its social media influences 0:06:02.440 --> 0:06:08.040 he has. Who would want to listen to that? Three 0:06:08.520 --> 0:06:11.880 days to go. Australia is at a fork in the road. 0:06:11.920 --> 0:06:14.200 We are presented with one eah in every three years, 0:06:14.240 --> 0:06:18.440 and there are just three days to go. According to 0:06:18.480 --> 0:06:22.599 the AEC, there have been four point six million people 0:06:22.640 --> 0:06:25.359 who have already voted. Now this is really interesting because 0:06:25.360 --> 0:06:28.120 a lot of people thought that half of all people 0:06:28.160 --> 0:06:31.200 would end up voting early. That's what the trends seem 0:06:31.279 --> 0:06:34.520 to suggest. But of course eighteen million people are on 0:06:34.560 --> 0:06:38.800 the electoral roll basically five million today. Let's imagine it's 0:06:38.800 --> 0:06:41.040 another million tomorrow. That takes us to six and then 0:06:41.080 --> 0:06:47.200 it gets us to maybe seven million people before election day. Well, 0:06:47.200 --> 0:06:51.440 of course that means that eleven million people will choose 0:06:51.480 --> 0:06:56.599 to vote on Saturday. That means what is happening in 0:06:56.600 --> 0:07:00.560 the final days matters. The final ads they start to 0:07:00.600 --> 0:07:05.520 turn off after midnight, but the social media ramp up 0:07:05.560 --> 0:07:08.480 and there'll be other ways. But still the final days matter, 0:07:09.480 --> 0:07:12.400 just like they did in twenty nineteen, just as they 0:07:12.440 --> 0:07:17.840 did in elections passed. But the final days matter very 0:07:17.880 --> 0:07:20.400 much so here in twenty and twenty five of the 0:07:20.440 --> 0:07:25.160 different places around the country, it's actually surprisingly mostly safe 0:07:25.560 --> 0:07:29.320 seats that seem to be voting early. Why because many 0:07:29.360 --> 0:07:31.480 people in those safe seats you would imagine, are just 0:07:31.480 --> 0:07:33.680 happy to lock in who they've voted for for a 0:07:33.720 --> 0:07:37.400 long time. Interesting that the number one location right now 0:07:37.480 --> 0:07:39.440 A lot of these are in Queensland, and you see 0:07:39.600 --> 0:07:41.720 habit wise, there were some seats in the queens And 0:07:41.840 --> 0:07:44.440 election where it was up to seventy percent of people 0:07:44.440 --> 0:07:47.480 who voted early, So Queensland likes to get it done early. 0:07:47.880 --> 0:07:51.400 In Bowmen, which is the Liberal Nationals, then the Green seat, 0:07:51.400 --> 0:07:54.280 which is highly contestable here, with both the Coalition and 0:07:54.360 --> 0:07:56.120 Labour thinking they might be able to pull it back 0:07:56.360 --> 0:07:59.840 from the Greens. Dawson pretty safe seat for the Liberal 0:07:59.880 --> 0:08:03.800 Nowational Party, the same for Fadden. Where are we now again? 0:08:03.920 --> 0:08:06.120 When things were better in the polls, this was considered 0:08:06.160 --> 0:08:09.720 to be a tight seat. The Labor Party think that 0:08:09.720 --> 0:08:11.600 the Poles are going to pull it back into their column, 0:08:11.600 --> 0:08:15.160 But the preferences of one nation might be putting this 0:08:15.200 --> 0:08:20.320 one back on the line. Flinders in Victoria, Dawson in Queensland, 0:08:20.400 --> 0:08:23.600 Macon in South Australia, Capricornia in Queensland and the Labor 0:08:23.600 --> 0:08:26.760 held seat of Gorton in Victoria are the places where 0:08:26.840 --> 0:08:34.040 people are voting now. I have long talked about how 0:08:34.080 --> 0:08:38.359 I understand that there are many Australians who are frustrated 0:08:38.480 --> 0:08:41.839 with the two parties of government. They'll be frustrated with 0:08:41.880 --> 0:08:44.440 the Labour Party for obvious reasons, They'll be frustrated with 0:08:44.520 --> 0:08:47.600 the Liberal Party for a whole bunch of reasons, which 0:08:47.640 --> 0:08:51.360 means your preferences matter, and for your vote to be 0:08:51.440 --> 0:08:53.600 a serious vote, for your vote to count, for your 0:08:53.679 --> 0:08:58.800 vote to actually reaffirm or change the government, I believe 0:08:58.840 --> 0:09:01.960 that you need to pick a government with the vote 0:09:02.000 --> 0:09:05.480 that you put at number two. Now we know that 0:09:05.760 --> 0:09:08.679 traditionally most people who vote for the Greens will end 0:09:08.760 --> 0:09:11.800 up putting the Labor Party at number two in many 0:09:11.800 --> 0:09:14.600 ways because they're how to vote forms will tell them 0:09:14.640 --> 0:09:18.520 to do so. And in twenty twenty two, people who 0:09:18.600 --> 0:09:22.520 voted for one nation, the Palmer Party, Libertarian and lots 0:09:22.559 --> 0:09:25.319 of others. They did not give that number two to 0:09:25.360 --> 0:09:27.840 the Liberal Party the way they did in twenty nineteen. 0:09:28.600 --> 0:09:31.120 The way they did in twenty nineteen was part of 0:09:31.160 --> 0:09:36.360 the story behind the surprise election victory of Scott Morrison, 0:09:36.400 --> 0:09:38.920 the one that we all saw coming, that we knew 0:09:39.240 --> 0:09:43.760 was happening. But is this about to be something potentially 0:09:44.200 --> 0:09:46.400 that will make things a little more competitive than they 0:09:46.480 --> 0:09:49.080 may well seem? Now? Virtually every national poll right now 0:09:49.240 --> 0:09:52.120 is sitting somewhere at fifty two forty eight or fifty 0:09:52.160 --> 0:09:56.200 three forty seven in favor of labor. But the X 0:09:56.280 --> 0:09:59.120 factor does seem to be one nation. I'm pleased to 0:09:59.120 --> 0:10:01.559 other people are starting to notice. But we have been 0:10:01.640 --> 0:10:04.880 on this well for years. But we've certainly been consistent 0:10:04.920 --> 0:10:08.800 about this for months because the polls have told us 0:10:09.520 --> 0:10:12.400 that one nation supported the last federal election was five percent, 0:10:13.280 --> 0:10:16.280 but in the poll released by The Guardian it's almost 0:10:16.320 --> 0:10:19.840 double news Pole. The gold Standard again shows that is 0:10:19.880 --> 0:10:22.680 outside of margin of error in terms of its growth. 0:10:23.400 --> 0:10:27.240 Even Resolve and the Wild Pole of Morgan all show 0:10:27.960 --> 0:10:30.440 a significant increase in the primary vote of one nation. 0:10:31.280 --> 0:10:34.760 Now of course, that is a national figure, but in 0:10:34.800 --> 0:10:37.800 some states that number will be way higher. In some 0:10:37.840 --> 0:10:41.160 seats that will be way lower. So it's difficult to 0:10:41.160 --> 0:10:44.160 turn around and say what the ultimate impact of one 0:10:44.240 --> 0:10:48.680 nation is going to be. But in outer suburban seats, 0:10:49.320 --> 0:10:52.320 the ones that have delivered massive drops in the primary 0:10:52.400 --> 0:10:56.320 vote of the Labor Party at state elections, even in 0:10:56.360 --> 0:10:59.440 the by elections in places like Victoria, we know that 0:10:59.480 --> 0:11:03.520 one nation has a significant following there. One nation in 0:11:03.559 --> 0:11:05.720 the past three years has been able to get people 0:11:05.760 --> 0:11:09.800 elected to the West Australian, South Australian, New South Wales 0:11:10.280 --> 0:11:15.280 and Victorian parliaments. They are knocking on the door of 0:11:15.360 --> 0:11:20.400 a Senate spot in many of those states. In places 0:11:20.440 --> 0:11:23.520 with lower populations, if their vote is higher than obviously 0:11:23.640 --> 0:11:26.880 ten percent of a smaller group of people starts to 0:11:26.920 --> 0:11:29.719 have a bigger impact, Which is why one nation is 0:11:29.760 --> 0:11:35.120 a massive chance of knocking off Jackie Lamby in Tasmania, 0:11:36.040 --> 0:11:38.160 where candidates like the one running in the seat of 0:11:38.280 --> 0:11:44.160 Hunter may well be outperforming the major parties. So if 0:11:44.200 --> 0:11:47.120 it becomes a two horse race, there could be some 0:11:47.240 --> 0:11:51.080 wild results that might come in. Now I was trying 0:11:51.120 --> 0:11:52.840 to research this today to say, well is this a 0:11:52.880 --> 0:11:56.040 phenomenon that happens at every election, that one nation always 0:11:56.160 --> 0:11:59.120 polls better than it does. And the truth is, I 0:11:59.160 --> 0:12:01.520 can show you pole where the polls were maybe one 0:12:01.640 --> 0:12:04.600 or two points better than the national result, but I've 0:12:04.800 --> 0:12:09.840 never seen polling that was almost double their previous election 0:12:09.960 --> 0:12:14.720 result that didn't result in a higher actual vote for 0:12:14.800 --> 0:12:18.920 one nation. Again, look at those poles. Everyone will sit 0:12:18.960 --> 0:12:22.200 there and be surprised on Saturday night the polls if 0:12:22.240 --> 0:12:25.880 they're wrong, Okay, we learn a lesson. But if history 0:12:26.120 --> 0:12:29.200 gives us a guide to the future, something's happening right 0:12:29.240 --> 0:12:32.000 now with one Nation. Now, it's easy to turn around 0:12:32.000 --> 0:12:34.920 and say that for quote unquote right wing voters, they 0:12:34.960 --> 0:12:36.960 might be annoyed on a whole bunch of issues with 0:12:36.960 --> 0:12:39.400 the Liberal Party, so that's what that vote is. But 0:12:39.400 --> 0:12:41.080 for a bunch of people, it may well be people 0:12:41.080 --> 0:12:42.520 from the Labor Party who go you know what, I 0:12:42.600 --> 0:12:44.040 mightn't walk all the way to the Libs, but I'm 0:12:44.040 --> 0:12:46.880 going to go via one Nation. So what happens with 0:12:46.960 --> 0:12:51.760 your preference matters. In fact, our mate Tom Connell, who 0:12:51.880 --> 0:12:54.920 is the best in the business at reading the numbers, he, 0:12:55.040 --> 0:12:57.080 among others, has been looking into this at sky in years, 0:12:57.120 --> 0:13:00.440 and they see that there has been a change in 0:13:00.480 --> 0:13:02.440 some of those how to vote forms for one nation 0:13:02.720 --> 0:13:04.640 where the Libs might have been at three, four, five 0:13:04.720 --> 0:13:06.920 or six, but bring them up to number two. So 0:13:07.400 --> 0:13:10.600 exactly what we've been talking about is what happens, which 0:13:10.640 --> 0:13:12.600 is you vote for one nation. You vote for one 0:13:12.679 --> 0:13:14.679 nation as number one in the lower House, number one 0:13:14.679 --> 0:13:16.640 in the Senate. The number one vote in the Senate 0:13:16.720 --> 0:13:19.760 will get a senator elected. The likelihood of a one 0:13:19.840 --> 0:13:25.600 nation person winning your local seat probably unlikely. But what 0:13:25.640 --> 0:13:27.840 you do with number two will be the difference about 0:13:27.880 --> 0:13:30.040 whether we need three more years of the current mob 0:13:30.200 --> 0:13:34.640 or there's a chance of a change. And again, if 0:13:34.640 --> 0:13:37.880 the trends are the trends, that Labour looks like it's 0:13:37.880 --> 0:13:40.600 about to be re elected. It looks like on some 0:13:40.640 --> 0:13:43.040 poles it may have even improved on this primary vote 0:13:43.040 --> 0:13:45.480 from the last election, meaning they could be in a 0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:47.640 scenario where we're not talking about a minority government, we're 0:13:47.640 --> 0:13:49.640 talking about a majority government, and maybe even a majority 0:13:49.679 --> 0:13:54.520 government with slightly more seats. But those fifty two to 0:13:54.559 --> 0:13:58.240 forty eight numbers are based off the science of the 0:13:58.240 --> 0:14:01.920 way preferences worked of the last elect not the way 0:14:01.960 --> 0:14:05.720 that they will work in this election. So if the 0:14:05.760 --> 0:14:14.640 preferences from one nation, Family First, Libertarian and trumpets actually 0:14:15.160 --> 0:14:17.160 end up with a one for those party but a 0:14:17.240 --> 0:14:20.080 two for the Liberal Party, then fifty two forty eight 0:14:20.160 --> 0:14:25.680 quickly becomes fifty one forty nine. Fifty one forty nine 0:14:25.760 --> 0:14:30.720 quickly becomes fifty to fifty. And there are dozens of 0:14:30.760 --> 0:14:35.280 contestable seats right now that are polling anywhere between fifty 0:14:35.280 --> 0:14:39.120 one forty nine. There's about a dozen or so right 0:14:39.160 --> 0:14:43.000 now that are bang on fifty fifty. Now again, the 0:14:43.040 --> 0:14:45.240 margin of era could well mean that currently fifty to 0:14:45.240 --> 0:14:47.440 fifty is really fifty two forty eight in favor of 0:14:47.480 --> 0:14:50.040 the Labor Party. Well, none of that's a surprise, because 0:14:50.040 --> 0:14:53.000 we know where the trends are. But this is the 0:14:53.040 --> 0:14:59.080 difference between the science of polling and the reality of 0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:03.160 an election. The reality of an election where we thought 0:15:04.040 --> 0:15:06.880 many more people will have voted by now, and millions have, 0:15:08.200 --> 0:15:12.760 but basically we haven't hit halfway yet, meaning the final 0:15:12.840 --> 0:15:17.600 days will matter. And interestingly, in the Financial Review, Philip Kurry, 0:15:17.760 --> 0:15:19.400 the guy who you know I often celebrate is the 0:15:19.440 --> 0:15:21.320 exception of the rule of the way that the press 0:15:21.360 --> 0:15:24.880 gallery thinks he had some research from one of the 0:15:24.880 --> 0:15:28.320 companies that does the polling for the Financial Review, and 0:15:28.840 --> 0:15:32.760 he wrote this story preferences from one nation another right 0:15:32.800 --> 0:15:36.840 of center minority parties are surging towards the Coalition at 0:15:36.880 --> 0:15:39.240 a higher rate than the last election. So maybe twenty 0:15:39.400 --> 0:15:44.560 nineteen is happening again. It's called preference discipline, fuelling expectations 0:15:44.600 --> 0:15:47.119 of Peter Dutton could snatch some of these outer suburban 0:15:47.200 --> 0:15:51.160 labor heartland seats because of cost of living. The issue 0:15:51.400 --> 0:15:53.320 that everyone has had is number one for the past 0:15:53.320 --> 0:15:54.960 three years, the one that we have not trusted the 0:15:54.960 --> 0:15:58.360 government on for all of the time they've been in place. 0:16:00.000 --> 0:16:03.360 I see polling by JWS research backs the internal findings 0:16:03.360 --> 0:16:07.920 of both major parties that certain demographic, sorry that a 0:16:07.920 --> 0:16:12.480 certain demographic of seats outer suburban mortgage belt electorates with 0:16:12.640 --> 0:16:19.200 blue collar workforces, substantial community commute times, and high cost 0:16:19.200 --> 0:16:22.960 of living sensitivities, in some cases high crime rates are 0:16:23.000 --> 0:16:27.760 behaving differently to the rest of the electorate in such seats. 0:16:27.840 --> 0:16:31.200 One Nation plus other minor parties on the rights such 0:16:31.200 --> 0:16:35.640 as Family First and the Partner Parties collectively ten percent 0:16:35.680 --> 0:16:41.040 of the vote. Those swinging to such parties include disaffected 0:16:41.120 --> 0:16:44.720 labor voters who, rather than directing their preferences to the 0:16:44.760 --> 0:16:50.440 Liberal Party, are going via these other parties. Consequently, eighty 0:16:50.560 --> 0:16:54.240 to ninety percent of right of center preferences are flowing 0:16:54.240 --> 0:16:56.760 to the coalition, whereas the national average of the last 0:16:56.800 --> 0:17:03.240 election was just two thirds. This is really interesting. Now 0:17:03.240 --> 0:17:05.159 I have to talk about the science behind some of 0:17:05.160 --> 0:17:07.440 that evidence, which a lot of people today have turned 0:17:07.440 --> 0:17:10.960 around and have called bunkum, which is it's basically they've 0:17:11.080 --> 0:17:13.960 asked people, as they're voted early, what did you do 0:17:14.000 --> 0:17:17.760 with your preferences? The total number that they are asking 0:17:17.880 --> 0:17:20.560 is lower than the number that are asked for a 0:17:20.720 --> 0:17:26.840 national poll. So is this the Orange mirage? Who knows, 0:17:27.800 --> 0:17:31.520 but we know the difference between twenty nineteen and twenty 0:17:31.640 --> 0:17:34.200 twenty two wasn't just the overall vote for the Liberal Party, 0:17:34.240 --> 0:17:38.000 but it was what people did on the seter right 0:17:38.400 --> 0:17:45.280 of Australian politics, what people did with number two, and 0:17:45.320 --> 0:17:47.399 the fact that the people who are to the center 0:17:47.480 --> 0:17:52.399 right are now coalescing. Specifically around one nation, pay attention 0:17:52.480 --> 0:17:55.200 to what its leader is saying about what you need 0:17:55.240 --> 0:17:57.760 to do with number two when it comes down to 0:17:57.920 --> 0:18:02.480 your moment to choose the government we have or the 0:18:02.520 --> 0:18:06.320 government we could have. I think Pauline's pretty clear. 0:18:07.560 --> 0:18:10.720 They've lied and lied and lied. And that's exactly what 0:18:10.800 --> 0:18:14.600 this prime minister has done. He's lied about immigration, cost living, 0:18:14.840 --> 0:18:17.479 everything he's lied the people about. I don't trust him, 0:18:17.560 --> 0:18:20.159 and I hope the people wake up themselves and don't 0:18:20.200 --> 0:18:22.040 give him another term of government. 0:18:23.640 --> 0:18:28.000 Now. I've got to be careful here, but I also 0:18:28.080 --> 0:18:30.120 want to give you a little bit of an inside 0:18:30.119 --> 0:18:33.000 tip that no major party wants me to give you. 0:18:34.680 --> 0:18:36.520 I'm going to lose some friends for what I'm about 0:18:36.560 --> 0:18:41.240 to tell you. If you are part of that majority 0:18:41.240 --> 0:18:43.800 of voters now who are thinking about turning up on 0:18:43.960 --> 0:18:49.280 election day, and maybe you don't like how aggressive the 0:18:49.520 --> 0:18:52.840 how to vote stuff is, when everyone's shoving something under 0:18:52.840 --> 0:18:56.320 your nose or someone sneering at you, or and you 0:18:56.440 --> 0:18:58.840 feel maybe a little bit nervous about walking up to 0:18:59.480 --> 0:19:02.680 any political party and taking their how to vote for 0:19:02.760 --> 0:19:04.919 them because you think that it's telling everyone else how 0:19:04.960 --> 0:19:07.119 you can to vote. And if the color of the 0:19:07.119 --> 0:19:08.879 piece of paper that you're holding is the one that 0:19:08.960 --> 0:19:11.600 everyone else doesn't like, then it might be uncomfortable for you. 0:19:13.119 --> 0:19:15.480 Or maybe you want to vote for a minor party 0:19:15.920 --> 0:19:19.440 or a local candidate who doesn't have the same volunteers 0:19:19.480 --> 0:19:23.239 as the major parties, let alone the union forces of 0:19:23.440 --> 0:19:28.600 the Labor Party or the activists of the Greens, you 0:19:28.640 --> 0:19:32.040 can download your how to vote form and you can 0:19:32.080 --> 0:19:36.080 do it tonight. In the case of one Nation, you 0:19:36.119 --> 0:19:40.040 can go to vote dot one Nation, dot org, dot AU. 0:19:41.240 --> 0:19:42.800 You can put in your electorate, you can put in 0:19:42.840 --> 0:19:45.760 your address and there it is. They'll tell you who 0:19:45.800 --> 0:19:48.439 the local candidate is and how to follow their how 0:19:48.440 --> 0:19:50.720 to votes if you want to. Now you can do 0:19:50.760 --> 0:19:53.639 the same when you google how to vote Labor, how 0:19:53.680 --> 0:19:55.879 to Vote Liberal, how to Vote Greens. All of the 0:19:55.920 --> 0:19:59.680 parties offer this service, so it means if you don't 0:19:59.720 --> 0:20:02.680 want to run the gauntlet and to show your hand 0:20:02.720 --> 0:20:04.960 about which way you're going to vote, you can arm 0:20:05.000 --> 0:20:11.639 yourself for that information tonight. You can print it, or 0:20:12.440 --> 0:20:15.879 depending on the party, you can save it to your phone, 0:20:16.280 --> 0:20:18.000 and in the same way that you use your phone 0:20:18.040 --> 0:20:21.320 to board an air aplane or you download the tickets 0:20:21.320 --> 0:20:23.159 to go to a show, you can do exactly the 0:20:23.160 --> 0:20:27.960 same thing when it comes to voting. The sound you 0:20:28.000 --> 0:20:30.480 can hear some people yelling at the TV because they 0:20:30.720 --> 0:20:34.920 know the last minute pressure does move some people around 0:20:35.240 --> 0:20:38.040 the last minute jitters about do I want to take 0:20:38.080 --> 0:20:39.520 that how to vote? Do I want to show that 0:20:39.560 --> 0:20:43.119 person you don't have to? It doesn't matter if you 0:20:43.200 --> 0:20:48.320 vote tomorrow or on Friday or on Saturday tonight. Go 0:20:48.359 --> 0:20:51.320 and search how to vote and insert the person that 0:20:51.359 --> 0:20:54.840 you want to vote for. But the bit that is 0:20:54.880 --> 0:20:58.400 outside of my public information is that whatever you do 0:20:58.680 --> 0:21:02.160 with number two, make sure that you pick the one 0:21:02.359 --> 0:21:06.719 you want to win the election. When it comes to 0:21:06.720 --> 0:21:09.320 the Senate, it is much easier for you to be 0:21:09.359 --> 0:21:12.800 able to vote just one through six above the line. 0:21:13.040 --> 0:21:15.639 Or if you're a superherd like me, you love putting 0:21:15.680 --> 0:21:18.639 a particular candidate four hundred and thirty first, and you 0:21:18.840 --> 0:21:20.879 play that game and your misses this going. Do we 0:21:20.920 --> 0:21:23.600 really have? Yes? All right? It's one of the joys 0:21:23.640 --> 0:21:25.960 I enjoy of voting, as well as as many sausages 0:21:25.960 --> 0:21:30.240 as possible. For obvious reasons, how to vote, insert who 0:21:30.280 --> 0:21:32.840 you want to vote for, download it to your phone, 0:21:33.320 --> 0:21:35.960 print it off, fold it over. No one sees the color, 0:21:36.480 --> 0:21:41.800 So thank you, thank you, thank you, and vote. As 0:21:41.840 --> 0:21:43.960 for the Prime Minister trying to effect that vote, in 0:21:43.960 --> 0:21:46.240 the last few days. He was playing a home game 0:21:46.359 --> 0:21:50.240 today at the National Press Club. This was his best 0:21:50.280 --> 0:21:52.120 attack line. And when I mean that, I just mean 0:21:52.800 --> 0:21:54.119 his latest lie on Dunton. 0:21:55.560 --> 0:22:00.880 Their plans are fundamentally wrong for Australia. Look at their 0:22:00.960 --> 0:22:04.679 proposal to ban working from home. Last month, Peter Dutton 0:22:04.760 --> 0:22:07.480 said that women who couldn't be in the office five 0:22:07.560 --> 0:22:11.800 days a week should just chob share his words, not mine, 0:22:12.280 --> 0:22:15.199 a statement that is so out of touch with the 0:22:15.280 --> 0:22:19.640 lives of modern families and the flexibility that working from 0:22:19.680 --> 0:22:21.640 home gives parents in. 0:22:21.600 --> 0:22:28.440 Particular, garbage, lies, rubbish Andrew Bolton his comments particularly tonight 0:22:28.520 --> 0:22:31.200 was excellent, as was Chris Kenny and Peter Creslin and 0:22:31.240 --> 0:22:34.600 Shery Marks and see no favorites love everyone about being 0:22:34.600 --> 0:22:36.520 able to go through and just point out life, a life, 0:22:36.520 --> 0:22:39.600 a life, a life, a lie, good stuff as people 0:22:39.640 --> 0:22:41.840 are calling all of that out. Remember it's not just 0:22:41.920 --> 0:22:44.199 for information for you watching, but find the videos ats 0:22:44.240 --> 0:22:45.800 gone news dot com, dot are, you share them on 0:22:45.840 --> 0:22:48.360 your social media, send them to the people who need 0:22:48.359 --> 0:22:51.520 to see that information. Okay, you still have an opportunity 0:22:51.720 --> 0:22:56.000 to not just vote tomorrow, but to commence somebody about 0:22:56.000 --> 0:22:58.320 why you think that they should be better informed about 0:22:58.320 --> 0:23:00.200 which way they are going to go on Saturday, that 0:23:00.200 --> 0:23:01.639