WEBVTT - Why Israel attacked Iran in the middle of US-Iran talks 0:00:01.000 --> 0:00:06.519 Moments ago, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a targeted military 0:00:06.559 --> 0:00:11.800 operation to roll back the Uranian threat to Israel's very survival. 0:00:18.040 --> 0:00:21.000 On Friday, Israel launched what it says was a preemptive 0:00:21.040 --> 0:00:24.120 strike on Iran meant to address an immediate and inevitable 0:00:24.200 --> 0:00:27.320 threat on Iran's part to construct a nuclear bomb well. 0:00:27.400 --> 0:00:30.800 Israel's military says two hundred fighter jets completed strikes on 0:00:30.840 --> 0:00:35.200 more than one hundred targets, including nuclear facilities, in different 0:00:35.200 --> 0:00:39.479 areas of Iran. Israel's military claims Iran is advancing a 0:00:39.560 --> 0:00:43.120 secret program to build nuclear weapons, and says Tehran has 0:00:43.159 --> 0:00:46.240 the capacity to make a nuclear bomb within days. 0:00:46.560 --> 0:00:49.760 I want to assure the civilized world we will not 0:00:50.120 --> 0:00:53.520 let the world's most dangerous regime get the world's most 0:00:53.600 --> 0:00:54.600 dangerous weapons. 0:00:55.080 --> 0:00:57.720 The strikes killed key military figures in Iran as well 0:00:57.720 --> 0:01:02.240 as several nuclear scientists, Promising payback would be severe, Iran 0:01:02.320 --> 0:01:03.480 launched attacks of its own. 0:01:03.680 --> 0:01:07.840 When Iran's Supreme leader I Tolder Ali Kamini issued this statement, 0:01:08.440 --> 0:01:12.320 he said, the Zionist regime opened its filthy and bloody 0:01:12.400 --> 0:01:15.679 hand to commit a crime in our beloved country and 0:01:15.720 --> 0:01:20.280 revealed its evil nature by striking residential centers more than 0:01:20.319 --> 0:01:21.000 in the past. 0:01:27.360 --> 0:01:29.800 All this comes as talks were scheduled between Iran and 0:01:29.840 --> 0:01:33.040 the US over the future of Iran's nuclear program, which 0:01:33.120 --> 0:01:39.840 have now been canceled. From Schwarz Media, I'm Ruby Jones. 0:01:40.160 --> 0:01:43.520 This is seven AM today, Middle East correspondent for The 0:01:43.520 --> 0:01:47.360 Economist Greek Carlstrom on why Israel chose this moment to strike, 0:01:47.760 --> 0:01:50.400 how it's angling for regime change in Iran, and what 0:01:50.440 --> 0:01:55.960 it will take to de escalate the conflict. It's Tuesday, 0:01:56.240 --> 0:02:04.560 June seventeenth, So Greg, let's begin with the strikes the 0:02:04.600 --> 0:02:08.359 Israeli government launched last week on Iran. It was calling 0:02:08.400 --> 0:02:13.280 them preemptive, saying that there was an immediate, inevitable threat 0:02:13.320 --> 0:02:17.480 from Iran to construct a nuclear bomb. So is that true. 0:02:18.000 --> 0:02:20.360 We don't know, is the short answer. 0:02:20.440 --> 0:02:25.600 The Israeli government has not provided any evidence to substantiate 0:02:25.840 --> 0:02:28.520 that claim. It's not to say there isn't evidence, but 0:02:28.560 --> 0:02:32.839 they haven't provided any, and what their claiming contradicts what 0:02:33.200 --> 0:02:38.320 just about every foreign intelligence agency had estimated in recent months. 0:02:38.360 --> 0:02:43.120 The American Director of National Intelligence said just as recently 0:02:43.160 --> 0:02:47.800 as March in congressional testimony that America didn't think Iran 0:02:47.960 --> 0:02:50.720 was actively trying to build a nuclear weapon. 0:02:51.080 --> 0:02:53.560 The assessment was that even though. 0:02:53.440 --> 0:02:57.960 Iran was close to being able to enrich weapons grade uranium, 0:02:58.000 --> 0:03:01.320 it didn't yet have the capabilities to fast that into 0:03:01.360 --> 0:03:04.160 a working nuclear bomb. That would have probably taken a 0:03:04.280 --> 0:03:06.640 year to a year and a half. So, again, what 0:03:06.680 --> 0:03:10.720 the Israelis are saying very very different from what everyone 0:03:10.760 --> 0:03:12.600 else in the intelligence community has said. 0:03:13.040 --> 0:03:17.280 Okay, and so in terms of the I guess achievability 0:03:17.360 --> 0:03:22.360 of being able to wipe out Iran's nuclear capability, what 0:03:22.520 --> 0:03:25.480 do we know about whether or not Israel has the 0:03:25.520 --> 0:03:26.400 capacity to do that. 0:03:26.960 --> 0:03:31.360 Well, it certainly has the capacity to set back Iran's 0:03:31.400 --> 0:03:34.519 nuclear program if you look at some of the targets 0:03:34.560 --> 0:03:37.160 that it has struck so far. It seems to have 0:03:37.240 --> 0:03:42.400 destroyed the above ground enrichment facility at Niton's, which was 0:03:42.440 --> 0:03:45.440 one of the facilities that Iran used to enrich uranium 0:03:46.040 --> 0:03:48.880 to sixty percent purity, which is a short hop away 0:03:48.920 --> 0:03:53.360 from weapons grade. It also seems to have destroyed, for example, 0:03:53.720 --> 0:03:59.800 another facility near Isfahan that converts uranium gas into uranium metal, 0:03:59.760 --> 0:04:02.800 which is a large component in a nuclear warhead. 0:04:03.480 --> 0:04:04.800 That seems to have been destroyed. 0:04:04.840 --> 0:04:08.240 These things will take many months, if not a year 0:04:08.360 --> 0:04:11.000 or two for Iran to rebuild, and it doesn't have 0:04:11.960 --> 0:04:16.279 replacements for those facilities. So it has set back what 0:04:16.320 --> 0:04:19.520 we know of Iran's nuclear program. But then there are 0:04:19.520 --> 0:04:22.480 a bunch of questions. For example, the stockpile of highly 0:04:22.600 --> 0:04:25.280 enriched uranium that Iran has, where is that? 0:04:25.360 --> 0:04:29.000 Has it dispersed some of that to facilities. 0:04:28.320 --> 0:04:30.799 That we don't know about that the IAEA, the UNS 0:04:30.880 --> 0:04:34.440 Nuclear Agency doesn't know about. It's possible that there is 0:04:34.480 --> 0:04:38.719 a clandestine piece to Iran's nuclear program that Israel won't 0:04:38.720 --> 0:04:43.240 be able to destroy that Iran could then use to 0:04:43.360 --> 0:04:45.679 try and rush towards producing a bomb. 0:04:45.720 --> 0:04:49.920 Now, so why do you think Israel chose this moment 0:04:50.040 --> 0:04:54.200 to strike and also chose to assassinate the specific Iranian 0:04:54.279 --> 0:04:55.120 leaders that it did. 0:04:55.600 --> 0:04:56.839 I think there's two goals there. 0:04:56.880 --> 0:04:59.640 One is a short term tactical goal, which is to 0:04:59.720 --> 0:05:04.120 make harder for Iran to organize a response a retaliation, 0:05:04.200 --> 0:05:06.080 and we saw that on Friday. It took the better 0:05:06.080 --> 0:05:09.120 part of the day for Iran to put together a 0:05:09.160 --> 0:05:13.000 ballistic missile attack on Israel, in part because you know, 0:05:13.080 --> 0:05:15.400 the commander of the missile force had been killed, and 0:05:15.440 --> 0:05:18.680 so there was no one to authorize that response. 0:05:19.279 --> 0:05:20.080 That's one thing. 0:05:20.480 --> 0:05:22.640 And then I think the second motivation, and this is 0:05:22.680 --> 0:05:26.640 becoming increasingly clear if you listen to Begnimi, N'taanno or 0:05:26.680 --> 0:05:30.920 other Israeli officials, the second motivation is I think they 0:05:30.920 --> 0:05:33.520 would like to destabilize, if. 0:05:33.400 --> 0:05:35.400 Not change, the regime in Iran. 0:05:35.480 --> 0:05:39.000 And I think the calculation is that wiping out the 0:05:39.000 --> 0:05:41.400 military and security leadership of the country is going to 0:05:41.440 --> 0:05:46.240 make the regime unstable, and for Israeli policymakers, the hope 0:05:46.279 --> 0:05:48.040 is that it will bring down that regime. 0:05:48.279 --> 0:05:51.119 Tonight, I wish to speak to you, the proud people 0:05:51.160 --> 0:05:54.680 of Iran. As I said yesterday and many times before, 0:05:56.680 --> 0:06:00.000 Israel's fight is not with you. It's not with you, 0:06:00.279 --> 0:06:03.080 the brave people of Iran, whom we respect and admire. 0:06:04.320 --> 0:06:08.159 Our fight is with our common enemy, a murderous regime 0:06:09.040 --> 0:06:14.760 that both oppresses you and impoblishes you. Brave people of Iran. 0:06:15.480 --> 0:06:20.359 Your light will defeat the darkness. I'm with you. The 0:06:20.440 --> 0:06:21.880 people of Israel. 0:06:21.720 --> 0:06:22.240 Are with you. 0:06:22.920 --> 0:06:26.159 Yeah. As you say, Israel is being quite explicit about 0:06:26.240 --> 0:06:29.600 its intentions there and Iran, you know, it's a huge 0:06:29.640 --> 0:06:33.520 place in the country of ninety million people, So what 0:06:33.720 --> 0:06:36.760 could happen in the next few weeks and months. 0:06:37.520 --> 0:06:40.040 That is a very good question for which I don't 0:06:40.080 --> 0:06:43.120 have a definitive answer. I mean, I think in the 0:06:44.480 --> 0:06:48.279 very short term right now, there's going to be a 0:06:48.279 --> 0:06:51.320 bit of a rally around the flag effect in Iran. 0:06:51.400 --> 0:06:53.479 People dislike the regime. 0:06:53.920 --> 0:06:58.000 It is deeply unpopular, particularly amongst the young people in Iran, 0:06:58.160 --> 0:07:01.880 But that doesn't necessarily mean that they want a foreign 0:07:01.880 --> 0:07:04.679 country to come in and bomb the regime and change 0:07:04.680 --> 0:07:05.400 it by force. 0:07:05.440 --> 0:07:07.280 Those are two different things. 0:07:08.080 --> 0:07:09.680 So I don't think, you know, in the sort of 0:07:09.760 --> 0:07:12.920 immediate term, we're going to see unrest in the streets. 0:07:14.200 --> 0:07:16.960 But I think the slightly longer term question is, you know, what. 0:07:16.880 --> 0:07:22.679 Does this do to the stability the legitimacy of the regime. 0:07:22.800 --> 0:07:26.240 It has spent decades telling its people that, you know, 0:07:26.320 --> 0:07:30.040 it is preparing for exactly this sort of moment. It is, 0:07:30.120 --> 0:07:33.440 you know, defending the homeland, and it's invested heavily in 0:07:33.440 --> 0:07:35.800 a missile program and a nuclear program and building up 0:07:35.840 --> 0:07:40.560 proxies in the region. It's neglected it's domestic responsibilities of 0:07:40.600 --> 0:07:43.720 you know, focusing on the economy and building infrastructure and 0:07:43.760 --> 0:07:45.920 things like that in order to build up what it 0:07:45.960 --> 0:07:49.000 said was a defense against foreign threat. And then when 0:07:49.000 --> 0:07:51.760 that foreign threat arrives, you know, the regime turned out 0:07:51.800 --> 0:07:56.560 to be absolutely shot through with intelligence leaks and security failureism. 0:07:56.880 --> 0:07:59.280 So what does that do to the legitimacy of the regime? 0:07:59.320 --> 0:08:03.480 What does that mean politically in Iran going forward? We're 0:08:03.480 --> 0:08:05.520 not sure yet, but I think there are going to 0:08:05.560 --> 0:08:06.760 be some ripple. 0:08:06.480 --> 0:08:13.160 Effects coming up after the break. Will Iran pursue its 0:08:13.240 --> 0:08:22.120 nuclear program after this? Greg These attacks came as talks 0:08:22.120 --> 0:08:24.760 were scheduled to take place between the US and Iran, 0:08:25.040 --> 0:08:28.520 So tell me what they were supposed to be discussing. 0:08:28.920 --> 0:08:32.360 So a decade ago, in twenty fifteen, the US and 0:08:32.600 --> 0:08:36.520 other world powers signed a deal with Iran, the JCPOA, 0:08:36.720 --> 0:08:40.560 which put limits on Iran's nuclear program in exchange for 0:08:40.640 --> 0:08:44.880 easing some of the economic sanctions on Iran. Trump abandoned 0:08:44.880 --> 0:08:47.040 that deal in twenty eighteen. He called it the worst 0:08:47.040 --> 0:08:50.360 deal ever negotiated. He promised to negotiate a better one. 0:08:51.000 --> 0:08:53.640 He failed to do that in his first term. Joe 0:08:53.640 --> 0:08:58.240 Biden failed to negotiate a new deal when he was president, 0:08:58.320 --> 0:09:02.360 and so Trump has been trying again to revive that agreement. 0:09:02.400 --> 0:09:06.240 There were five rounds of talks between the United States 0:09:06.280 --> 0:09:08.840 and are On between April and the start of the 0:09:08.880 --> 0:09:12.760 war a few days ago. But the talks had really 0:09:12.760 --> 0:09:16.320 been hung up on a sort of fundamental question of 0:09:16.360 --> 0:09:21.040 whether this agreement would allow Iran to continue enriching uranium 0:09:21.160 --> 0:09:24.040 or not. The Iranians insist, and they're not wrong, that 0:09:24.720 --> 0:09:28.000 enrichment is a right under the Non Proliferation Treaty, and 0:09:28.040 --> 0:09:29.840 they see it as a point of national pride, and 0:09:29.840 --> 0:09:34.280 they want to keep enriching uranium domestically. The Trump administration 0:09:34.440 --> 0:09:36.880 had said it wasn't willing to accept that, and if 0:09:36.920 --> 0:09:40.839 Iron wanted to have nuclear reactors or research reactors, it 0:09:40.880 --> 0:09:45.400 would have to import enriched uranium from abroad. They couldn't 0:09:45.440 --> 0:09:48.440 get past that very fundamental disagreement in what kind of 0:09:48.480 --> 0:09:49.839 deal they were trying to negotiate. 0:09:50.520 --> 0:09:54.160 So, I mean Trump is still saying that a deal 0:09:54.160 --> 0:09:54.720 will happen. 0:09:55.200 --> 0:09:57.400 Well, I hope there's going to be a deal. I 0:09:57.440 --> 0:10:00.320 think it's time for a deal, and we'll see what happens. 0:10:01.200 --> 0:10:02.679 Sometimes they have to fight it. 0:10:02.640 --> 0:10:04.240 Out, but we're going to see what happens. 0:10:04.520 --> 0:10:06.000 I think there's a good chance you'll. 0:10:05.880 --> 0:10:06.360 Be a deal. 0:10:06.679 --> 0:10:09.440 But I mean, what kind of deal could be reached 0:10:09.440 --> 0:10:12.360 at this stage? Do you think that talks will resume? 0:10:13.080 --> 0:10:15.839 I think in the very near term. I think that's 0:10:15.840 --> 0:10:16.600 wishful thinking. 0:10:16.840 --> 0:10:21.720 I think the Israeli government convinced Trump that military strikes 0:10:21.720 --> 0:10:25.480 on Iran would make Iran more amenable to negotiating a 0:10:25.520 --> 0:10:29.040 deal into making concessions, and I think right now that 0:10:29.160 --> 0:10:32.680 is just a fundamental misreading of the Iranian regime. It 0:10:32.679 --> 0:10:35.240 doesn't want to negotiate under fire. It doesn't want to 0:10:35.280 --> 0:10:39.960 be seen as capitulating to its enemies in Israel and 0:10:40.280 --> 0:10:43.400 in the West. So I think no surprise that the 0:10:43.440 --> 0:10:46.400 most recent round of talk scheduled for Sunday was canceled 0:10:46.400 --> 0:10:49.880 that the Iranians refused to show up. The question going 0:10:49.920 --> 0:10:54.040 forward is at some point does the damage in Iran 0:10:54.280 --> 0:10:58.920 get bad enough that they feel compelled to negotiate. The 0:10:58.960 --> 0:11:02.560 regime doesn't want to concede on its nuclear program, but 0:11:02.600 --> 0:11:05.680 it also wants to survive the war and stay in power, 0:11:06.160 --> 0:11:08.319 And so is there a point at which they decide 0:11:08.360 --> 0:11:12.960 the only way to survive is to make big concessions 0:11:13.000 --> 0:11:14.120 in a new nuclear deal. 0:11:14.440 --> 0:11:15.320 We're not at that point. 0:11:15.360 --> 0:11:20.200 Yet I'm skeptical that Israel by itself can push the 0:11:20.240 --> 0:11:23.080 war to that point. But I think that's going to 0:11:23.120 --> 0:11:25.560 be the key question going forward. 0:11:26.880 --> 0:11:30.520 And just to talk a little more about the US position, 0:11:30.600 --> 0:11:33.720 I mean, to what extent does Israel have the implicit 0:11:33.800 --> 0:11:36.559 backing of Trump as it takes his action in Iran. 0:11:37.160 --> 0:11:41.439 I think there's no doubt that it has American backing. 0:11:41.480 --> 0:11:44.400 I think there's no doubt that Donald Trump not only 0:11:44.440 --> 0:11:48.479 knew about Israel's plans ahead of time, but approve. 0:11:48.160 --> 0:11:52.280 Then just hours before the initial Israeli strikes. The President 0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:54.720 publicly ward is Real not to do this, saying an 0:11:54.720 --> 0:11:58.120 attack could derail long gooing US raw nuclear talks. But 0:11:58.280 --> 0:12:02.439 now President Trump is calling those Israeli strikes excellent, saying 0:12:02.559 --> 0:12:04.360 he gave Arond the chance to make a deal and 0:12:04.400 --> 0:12:07.160 they quote got hit about as hard as you're going 0:12:07.200 --> 0:12:10.079 to get hit, adding there's more to come, a lot more. 0:12:10.440 --> 0:12:15.080 And even though America thus far hasn't taken an offensive role, 0:12:15.080 --> 0:12:17.920 it hasn't joined Israel and carrying out air strikes, it's 0:12:17.960 --> 0:12:19.400 supporting Israel. 0:12:19.840 --> 0:12:20.880 In myriad other ways. 0:12:20.880 --> 0:12:23.920 You have American air defense systems in Israel right now, 0:12:24.760 --> 0:12:26.800 helping to shoot down. Some of these are on the 0:12:26.800 --> 0:12:32.080 in ballistic missiles. America is sharing intelligence with Israel. It 0:12:32.240 --> 0:12:36.880 is obviously resupplying the Israeli army. America is Israel's main 0:12:36.960 --> 0:12:40.800 supplier of military equipment, so it is playing a huge 0:12:41.240 --> 0:12:44.920 supporting role. The question in the next few days is 0:12:45.640 --> 0:12:48.880 whether Israel can convince it to join the war in 0:12:48.920 --> 0:12:52.920 an offensive capacity as well. Israel would like American help 0:12:53.360 --> 0:12:57.520 to strike at four Dough, that deeply buried enrichment facility. 0:12:58.240 --> 0:13:00.400 It has asked America to join air space strikes on 0:13:00.440 --> 0:13:03.679 four Dough. Trump so far has not agreed, but the 0:13:03.720 --> 0:13:07.200 Israeli government is trying to make the case that this 0:13:07.240 --> 0:13:10.480 war will only be successful with American military help. It's 0:13:10.520 --> 0:13:12.680 really pushing Trump to get involved. 0:13:13.600 --> 0:13:17.600 For years, greg Israel and the Allies, they've warned about 0:13:18.120 --> 0:13:21.640 the axis of Iran and Hezbola, and the Asside regime 0:13:21.679 --> 0:13:24.280 in Syria. But over the course of the last year 0:13:24.280 --> 0:13:28.040 we've seen now all three of these either wiped out 0:13:28.480 --> 0:13:32.280 or massively degraded. So just how much at this point 0:13:33.120 --> 0:13:35.240 has the Middle East been reshaped? 0:13:35.760 --> 0:13:39.800 If this had happened two years ago, Israel striking Iran 0:13:40.520 --> 0:13:42.840 Hezbola would have been the first line of defense. That 0:13:43.000 --> 0:13:46.400 is why Iran spent so many years arming it, funding it, 0:13:46.480 --> 0:13:49.880 training it was so that it could, in a moment 0:13:49.960 --> 0:13:53.640 like this, unleash thousands of rockets and missiles on Israel. 0:13:54.559 --> 0:13:56.960 It hasn't done a thing because it has been so 0:13:57.080 --> 0:13:59.960 badly weakened than because now it's in a much weaker 0:14:00.160 --> 0:14:04.600 position domestically. Not just its military capabilities have been damaged, 0:14:04.640 --> 0:14:07.800 but it's in a weaker position politically in Lebanon, and 0:14:07.800 --> 0:14:10.920 I think it's nervous about taking the risk of dragging 0:14:10.960 --> 0:14:14.560 Lebanon back into a war. So again, Iran feels like 0:14:14.600 --> 0:14:18.240 it can't rely on these proxies. It still has Houthis 0:14:18.280 --> 0:14:21.840 and Yemen who can fire the occasional drone or ballistic 0:14:21.880 --> 0:14:26.080 missile at Israel. It still has militias in Iraq, although 0:14:26.120 --> 0:14:29.760 so far they haven't seemed keen on getting involved. But 0:14:30.160 --> 0:14:34.000 Iran finds itself having to defend itself in a way 0:14:34.040 --> 0:14:35.360 that it never expected to. 0:14:36.920 --> 0:14:39.200 Well, Greg, thank you so much for your time. 0:14:40.240 --> 0:14:40.600 Thank you. 0:14:52.680 --> 0:14:55.560 Also in the news today, Australian officials are working on 0:14:55.640 --> 0:14:58.880 plans to help Australians leave Iran and Israel, but Foreign 0:14:58.920 --> 0:15:01.400 Minister Penny Wong ones it may take time due to 0:15:01.440 --> 0:15:05.120 airspace being closed. Senator Wong says about three hundred and 0:15:05.160 --> 0:15:07.800 fifty people in Iran and three hundred in Israel have 0:15:07.920 --> 0:15:10.640 already registered for assistance and the government is working on 0:15:10.680 --> 0:15:13.120 a plan for assisted departures when it is safe to 0:15:13.160 --> 0:15:16.840 do so. And Prime Minister Anthony Alberinezi will open form 0:15:16.840 --> 0:15:19.680 more talks for Australia to join a new EU security 0:15:19.680 --> 0:15:22.840 and defense partnership. The Prime Minister will use this week's 0:15:22.880 --> 0:15:25.280 G seven summit to hold talks with the EU Commission 0:15:25.320 --> 0:15:29.680 President to explore areas of greater cooperation, including foreign interference, 0:15:29.920 --> 0:15:33.960 counter terrorism and defense capabilities. I'm Ruby Jones. This is 0:15:33.960 --> 0:15:35.840 seven am. See you tomorrow.