1 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:09,000 Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today. 2 00:00:09,160 --> 00:00:11,840 Speaker 1: House prices are on a tear, but will it continue. 3 00:00:12,080 --> 00:00:15,320 Speaker 1: Bitcoin hits a record high and the cost of snowy 4 00:00:15,360 --> 00:00:18,360 Speaker 1: two point zero blows out again. Plus the big banks 5 00:00:18,400 --> 00:00:20,919 Speaker 1: and retailers do a deal with Armor Guard to keep 6 00:00:20,920 --> 00:00:24,120 Speaker 1: the cash flowing. And Ford's global boss says the future 7 00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:28,040 Speaker 1: is not about evs but hybrids thanks to Donald Trump. 8 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:30,600 Speaker 1: It's Monday, the sixth of October twenty twenty five. I'm 9 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 1: Adam Langan. Good morning, Sean Almer. 10 00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:34,440 Speaker 2: Good morning, Adam, Sean. 11 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:37,120 Speaker 1: It's a labour day long weekend in South Australia, New 12 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:40,080 Speaker 1: South Wales and the Act and the King's Birthday public 13 00:00:40,120 --> 00:00:42,919 Speaker 1: holiday in Queensland. Where are you in the world. 14 00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:47,800 Speaker 2: I'm in none of those states. I'm still overseas, Adam. 15 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:50,640 Speaker 2: We having a weekend in Prague, or I'm in Prague 16 00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:51,080 Speaker 2: at the moment. 17 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:54,600 Speaker 1: All right, Well, enjoy that, Sean. Listeners in Northern Territory, 18 00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:57,520 Speaker 1: Victoria and Western Australia are among those working today. But 19 00:00:57,600 --> 00:01:00,520 Speaker 1: given how many people aren't in the office, this morning 20 00:01:00,520 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 1: show will be a little shorter. The main story this morning, 21 00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:06,200 Speaker 1: the Australian housing market is gathering ahead of Steam, with 22 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:09,720 Speaker 1: three rate cuts this year, pushing prices higher and experts 23 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:12,280 Speaker 1: to being more price increases in the coming months. 24 00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:15,720 Speaker 2: Melbourne's one of the strongest capital cities ADAM demonstrated once 25 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 2: again over the past week, with the preliminary auction clearance 26 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:21,399 Speaker 2: rate coming in at seventy two percent or nearly seventy 27 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:23,880 Speaker 2: two percent this time last year was fifty nine percent. 28 00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:26,800 Speaker 2: Quite the jump, notwithstanding there was a Rugby League Grand 29 00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:30,360 Speaker 2: Final in Sydney last night involving teams from Brisbane and Melbourne. 30 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 2: The preliminary clearance rate across the nation came in at 31 00:01:33,800 --> 00:01:36,720 Speaker 2: seventy two percent. Also, that is pretty good for a 32 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:38,840 Speaker 2: Grand Final week and in fact that's excellent for a 33 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:42,440 Speaker 2: Grand Final weekend. While prices in Melbourne are lagging somewhat, 34 00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:44,440 Speaker 2: up just two percent over the past year and one 35 00:01:44,480 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 2: percent over the past quarter, the improvement in auction results 36 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 2: and the fact that the median house price in Melbourne 37 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 2: is now below Sydney, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide and Canberra august 38 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:56,520 Speaker 2: very well for the southern capital. Darwin, Perth and Brisbane 39 00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 2: are the fastest growing capital cities, at least in terms 40 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 2: of price city in Hobert have all risen in price 41 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:05,240 Speaker 2: by two and a half three percent thereabouts over the 42 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 2: past year, although Sydney has far and away the most 43 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:11,880 Speaker 2: expensive median value worth more than one point two million dollars. 44 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:15,800 Speaker 1: Sure, and the question is can house prices keep running? 45 00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:18,280 Speaker 1: We have now had nine months in a row of 46 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:22,120 Speaker 1: gotalities house value index increasing and the price increases have 47 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:24,959 Speaker 1: been very broad based. Can they actually keep going? 48 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:28,160 Speaker 2: I'm going to hand that question over the experts. Amp's 49 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:31,400 Speaker 2: Shane Oliver expects a seven percent growth rate this year 50 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:34,840 Speaker 2: eight to ten percent next year. Now there's a bunch 51 00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:38,600 Speaker 2: of factors behind that helping prices. Interest rates could still 52 00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 2: fall a bit more now. Oliver says that roughly speaking, 53 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 2: each zero point two to five percentage point cut in 54 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:50,160 Speaker 2: a variable mortgage rate adds about eleven thousand dollars to 55 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:53,360 Speaker 2: how much a buyer on average earnings can borrow. Real 56 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:56,400 Speaker 2: wages are continuing to rise, consumer sentiments picked up, the 57 00:02:56,400 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 2: property shortage remains, and government support for the first time 58 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:05,000 Speaker 2: buyers ramps up again from last week, So plenty of 59 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 2: reasons to think that the market will continue to appreciate. 60 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:11,920 Speaker 2: Oliver says, there is still an accumulated housing shortfall that 61 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:14,880 Speaker 2: has built up over the last few years, so underbuilding 62 00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:18,040 Speaker 2: he reckons is at about two hundred and fifty thousand units. Also, 63 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:21,800 Speaker 2: the government's expanded low deposit guarantee allows most first time 64 00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 2: buyers to get him with the five percent deposit. The 65 00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:26,160 Speaker 2: other one coming on board the government's helped to Buy 66 00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:29,640 Speaker 2: scheme with ten thousand places a year that will see 67 00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:32,359 Speaker 2: the government take a thirty to forty percent equity stake 68 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:37,080 Speaker 2: in new housing. That's also expected to start soon. So 69 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 2: all those things pushing prices higher. The reason that the 70 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 2: upswing could be constrained a bit is because interest rates 71 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 2: won't fall back to where they were in twenty twenty one. 72 00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:53,840 Speaker 2: There's also poor affordability. How prices have risen so much, 73 00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 2: people just can't get into the market. In fact, the 74 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 2: ratio of home prices to wages and incomes is that 75 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:02,720 Speaker 2: a record level across the country. The median price is 76 00:04:02,720 --> 00:04:05,280 Speaker 2: now eight hundred and fifty seven thousand dollars for a home. 77 00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:07,640 Speaker 2: The pacitive people to buy a house will remain lower 78 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:10,360 Speaker 2: than most other times in the past few years, but 79 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:13,720 Speaker 2: more than all Adam, the market is pretty warm at 80 00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 2: the moment. 81 00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:16,880 Speaker 1: Sean. Moving to Wall Street, it closed higher over the weekend, 82 00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:19,480 Speaker 1: and our local market is not far off an all 83 00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:20,559 Speaker 1: time high either. 84 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:24,080 Speaker 2: Very close Adam. On Friday, the SMPA six two hundred 85 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:27,240 Speaker 2: closed up half percent to eight nine hundred and eighty 86 00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:31,600 Speaker 2: seven points. Healthcare, IT, consumer, discretionary, in property stocks all 87 00:04:31,640 --> 00:04:34,719 Speaker 2: did pretty well of setting energy and utilities companies. Now 88 00:04:34,760 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 2: we're sitting about thirty two points shy of the all 89 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:42,560 Speaker 2: time record of niney nineteen points set in late August. 90 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:46,840 Speaker 2: Since early April, when US President Donald Trump introduced tariffs 91 00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:49,480 Speaker 2: going to be a disaster, the local boss has jumped 92 00:04:49,520 --> 00:04:53,080 Speaker 2: twenty five percent, certainly a bull rally. 93 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:57,279 Speaker 1: Incredible Sean. Speaking of incredible, Bitcoin has hit an all 94 00:04:57,320 --> 00:05:00,400 Speaker 1: time high, with fears around the US government shut down 95 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:04,440 Speaker 1: not stopping price appreciation of riskier asset classes. 96 00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:07,600 Speaker 2: Over the weekend, it hit one hundred and twenty five 97 00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:12,159 Speaker 2: six hundred and eighty nine US dollars. Wow, incredible, topping 98 00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:14,760 Speaker 2: its previous record set on fourteen in August. Helped along 99 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:18,280 Speaker 2: by higher US equities and strong flows into bitcoin linked 100 00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:23,120 Speaker 2: exchange traded funds, It's up thirty percent this year. Interestingly, 101 00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:25,800 Speaker 2: October has over the past decade proven a very strong 102 00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:29,480 Speaker 2: month for bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency rising nine of the 103 00:05:29,560 --> 00:05:32,760 Speaker 2: last ten. October's quite a few asset classes trading around 104 00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:36,279 Speaker 2: all time highs, gold, silver, another one. Maybe we should 105 00:05:36,279 --> 00:05:38,159 Speaker 2: do some something on this. The next couple of days 106 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 2: Pokemon cards adam yes, all time high according to Bloomberg. 107 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:46,400 Speaker 2: There you go. Maybe I might come back to that 108 00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:48,040 Speaker 2: one tomorrow, night, tomorrow or the next day. 109 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:50,159 Speaker 1: Brilliant will be back in a moment. With the rest 110 00:05:50,160 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 1: of the day's business news Sean the cost of the 111 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:04,000 Speaker 1: Snowy two point zero pumped hydro project will push beyond 112 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:07,520 Speaker 1: the already revised twelve billion dollars, with no new figure 113 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:10,719 Speaker 1: given for the country's flagship renewable energy project, which is 114 00:06:10,760 --> 00:06:13,839 Speaker 1: intended to keep the lights on as coal power stations close. 115 00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:16,720 Speaker 2: The blowout and costs for the mega project adds more 116 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:19,880 Speaker 2: pressure to Australia's energy transition, which is struggling with cost 117 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:23,400 Speaker 2: overruns and delays at several major new projects, notably in 118 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:27,960 Speaker 2: electricity transmission. Snowy to Bonet's chief executive Dennis Barnes said 119 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:31,200 Speaker 2: that while the need to revise the cost was disappointing, 120 00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:35,600 Speaker 2: the critical importance for energy consumers had not changed. Construction 121 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:38,880 Speaker 2: is so far sixty seven percent complete and completion is 122 00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:41,240 Speaker 2: still on track for December twenty twenty eight, according to 123 00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 2: the fin review. Barnes declined to give a ballpark estimate 124 00:06:44,279 --> 00:06:47,000 Speaker 2: of what the final cost might be, but said he 125 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:50,240 Speaker 2: remained confident about the worth of the project for Australia's 126 00:06:50,279 --> 00:06:51,000 Speaker 2: energy transition. 127 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:54,200 Speaker 1: Sure On the country's biggest banks and retailers have reached 128 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:57,760 Speaker 1: a deal with Armour Guard, the monopoly cash transportation business, 129 00:06:57,880 --> 00:07:00,679 Speaker 1: to ensure Australians can continue to act cash. 130 00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:03,120 Speaker 2: It's a landmark agreement and it comes after almost two 131 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:05,920 Speaker 2: years of negotiations and follows the development of a pricing 132 00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:09,080 Speaker 2: model by Deloitte Access Economics and a joint statement Armagard 133 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 2: and the Australian Banking Association said this is an important 134 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:15,679 Speaker 2: milestone and work and keep cash available around Australia even 135 00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:18,280 Speaker 2: while people are using less of it. The new pricing 136 00:07:18,280 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 2: model will be governed similarly to the electricity and gas 137 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:25,240 Speaker 2: distribution sectors, with independent oversight of the company's contracts. The 138 00:07:25,240 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 2: Australian Competition and Consumer Commission still has to approve the deal. 139 00:07:29,160 --> 00:07:32,840 Speaker 1: Sean tech billionaire Mike canon Brooks's private company has voted 140 00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:36,720 Speaker 1: against AGL Energy's latest climate plan as the group's biggest 141 00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:39,960 Speaker 1: shareholders grow frustrated over the pace of action to cut emissions. 142 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:43,000 Speaker 2: Grock Ventures, which aims about ten point four percent of AGL, 143 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 2: criticized the new twenty twenty five plan as including only 144 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:50,160 Speaker 2: incremental increases in ambitions from the twenty twenty two version 145 00:07:50,680 --> 00:07:53,840 Speaker 2: and being out of step with the binding climate goals 146 00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 2: agreed at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris 147 00:07:56,960 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 2: back in twenty fifteen. Grop Ventures urged the board to 148 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:03,440 Speaker 2: adopt stronger steps to cut emissions and boost renewable energy 149 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:07,000 Speaker 2: to the benefit of AGL shareholders. Overall, thirty percent of 150 00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:10,960 Speaker 2: AGL shareholders, voting by proxyate Agel's annual general meeting on Friday, 151 00:08:11,280 --> 00:08:15,280 Speaker 2: opposed the Climate Transition Action Plan. AGL has kept essentially 152 00:08:15,280 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 2: the same timetable for closing its two remaining coal power 153 00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:21,120 Speaker 2: stations in New South Wales and Victoria as it did 154 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:22,280 Speaker 2: back in twenty twenty two. 155 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:25,920 Speaker 1: In international news, Ford's chief executive has warn of a 156 00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:29,600 Speaker 1: bleak outlook for electric vehicles as President Donald Trump's policies 157 00:08:29,680 --> 00:08:33,440 Speaker 1: breathe renewed life into internal combustion engine vehicles. 158 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 2: The elimination of a seven five hundred US dollar consumer 159 00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:41,240 Speaker 2: tax credit, softening of emissions rules will sharply curtail EV 160 00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:44,760 Speaker 2: demand in the US. Ford c Jim Farley said he 161 00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:48,560 Speaker 2: predicted the share of zero emission vehicles, currently around ten percent, 162 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:52,320 Speaker 2: could fall by half. According to Bloomberg, he said the 163 00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:55,560 Speaker 2: EV market will be way smaller than we thought. He 164 00:08:55,559 --> 00:08:59,520 Speaker 2: said he sees more opportunity in partial electrifications such as hybrids, 165 00:08:59,760 --> 00:09:02,520 Speaker 2: and believes pure EV's a best suited for commuter vehicles 166 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:04,840 Speaker 2: that make short runs an account for only five to 167 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:08,080 Speaker 2: seven percent of the market. The blunt assessment underscores the 168 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 2: rapidly changing dynamics for the auto industry under Trump, with 169 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:15,720 Speaker 2: many major manufacturers delaying EV production plans and redeploying investment 170 00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:19,440 Speaker 2: dollars to internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles. 171 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 1: Sean up next is the Fear and Greed Q and A. 172 00:09:22,760 --> 00:09:25,320 Speaker 1: And you are talking to Sharrell Murphy, who's stepping in 173 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:28,199 Speaker 1: for the Kook, who's on holidays for the next six weeks. 174 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:30,920 Speaker 2: Yes, we have a great chat to schell. Not a 175 00:09:30,920 --> 00:09:32,880 Speaker 2: lot going on this week, to be perfectly honest in 176 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 2: economics Land and not even in the us that much 177 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 2: because we've got the government shutdown going on. But I 178 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:40,520 Speaker 2: ask Charrell about the state of the economy where we're 179 00:09:40,600 --> 00:09:45,960 Speaker 2: up to whether or not inflation is really sort of 180 00:09:46,040 --> 00:09:48,120 Speaker 2: coming to bide us again or not. So it's a 181 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:50,680 Speaker 2: great chat with Sharrell, who of course is the chief 182 00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:52,800 Speaker 2: economist of e Y Oceania. 183 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:55,080 Speaker 1: That's up next in the Fear and Greed playlist on 184 00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:58,120 Speaker 1: your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com dot au. 185 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:00,960 Speaker 1: Thank you Sean, Thank you Adam. It's Monday, the sixth 186 00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:04,359 Speaker 1: of October twenty twenty five. Make sure you're following the podcast, 187 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:08,240 Speaker 1: join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook, 188 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:09,720 Speaker 1: and please have a great day.