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Speaker 1: From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.

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Speaker 1: It's Tuesday, February twenty four, twenty twenty six. Anthony Albanezi

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Speaker 1: says he'll help to remove Andrew Mountbatten Windsor from the

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Speaker 1: British monarchy's line of succession. The former Prince Andrew is

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Speaker 1: still currently eighth in line to the throne. That's after

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Speaker 1: he was stripped of royal titles by his brother, King

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Speaker 1: Charles over his alleged links to the convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein,

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Speaker 1: booted from the royal residence where he's lived for decades

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Speaker 1: and arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office. Albanezi

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Speaker 1: wrote to British Prime Minister Sirkiir Stalmer to pledge his

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Speaker 1: support for any move by Stamer's government to demote Mountbatten Windsor,

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Speaker 1: who denies any wrongdoing. That exclusive is live right now

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Speaker 1: at the Australian dot com dot au. Discussions between state

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Speaker 1: and federal authority is about the return of thirty five

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Speaker 1: for women and children from a refugee camp in Syria

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Speaker 1: have been going on for months. New South Wales Premier

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Speaker 1: Chris Mins made that revelation on Monday and said a

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Speaker 1: third of the so called Isis brides and their children

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Speaker 1: would settle in New South Wales if they returned to Australia.

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Speaker 1: Now the federal government's under pressure to reveal more Home

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Speaker 1: Affairs Minister Tony Burke says information will only be released

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Speaker 1: if it's in the national interest. Mossad's audacious pager and

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Speaker 1: walkie talkie attacks hit SA Militia Hesbla hard, but now

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Speaker 1: the Iran backed Jihadis are using old world money lender

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Speaker 1: networks plus new systems including trucks and boats full of cash,

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Speaker 1: to prepare for fresh warfare with the two great Satans,

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Speaker 1: Israel and the United States. JOHNI Bashan joins US from

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Speaker 1: the Middle East to explore why Israeli's are bracing for

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Speaker 1: fresh assaults from the north if Iran and the United

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Speaker 1: States go to war. First came Morsad's devastating page or attack.

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Speaker 1: Then Hesbela's walkie talkie system was a bluiterabe, and then

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Speaker 1: an Israeli air strike took out the Lebanon based Shiit

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Speaker 1: Jahadi group's leader Hassanzrala Hamig.

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Speaker 2: Around Supreme leader Ayatala Ali Kramanei called on Muslims on

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Speaker 2: Saturday to stand by the people of Lebanon and his

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Speaker 2: Bellah in confronting quote, the wicked regime of Israel.

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Speaker 1: That was in September twenty twenty four, and in November

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Speaker 1: of that year, Israel and Hesbela signed a ceasefire agreement

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Speaker 1: that seemed to signal the end of an era. Yanni

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Speaker 1: Vashan is in the Middle East reporting for the Australian YNI.

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Speaker 1: So what happened to Hezbela back then?

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Speaker 3: Well, Hesbela was decimated by the pager attacks and by

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Speaker 3: the assassination and air strikes of its critical leadership, and

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Speaker 3: for a very long time, I think we all assumed

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Speaker 3: that Hesbla was pretty much a spent force and pretty

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Speaker 3: much finished. But what we know is that over the

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Speaker 3: past sixteen months, or at least since it signed a

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Speaker 3: ceaspire in Israel in November of twenty twenty four, that

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Speaker 3: it's been very quietly regrouping.

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Speaker 4: Not so quietly for Israel.

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Speaker 3: Israel has been launching almost daily air strikes on Hesbela

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Speaker 3: positions that they've tried to set up south of the

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Speaker 3: Latani River, where they're not supposed to be so not

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Speaker 3: so quietly to Israel. But it has been attempting to

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Speaker 3: find new smuggling routes for its weapons, for its financing,

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Speaker 3: and essentially it's been attempting to re establish itself in Lebanon,

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Speaker 3: which it's done with some success, not great success, but

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Speaker 3: some success. It still has a substantial stockpile of weapons

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Speaker 3: that it has been firing at Israel and that weren't

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Speaker 3: destroyed during that initial two months of fighting in twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty four, and those of what Israel is most worried

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Speaker 3: about now. As Kesbala stands poised to join Iran in

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Speaker 3: a potential war with Israel and the United States.

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump has sent to the Middle East the biggest

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Speaker 1: armada we've seen in more than two decades in the region.

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Speaker 1: He's obviously preparing for some sort of assault on Iran.

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Speaker 1: Whether he carries it out or not, he's going to

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Speaker 1: be another question. How do you think it would play out.

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Speaker 1: Let's say, if attacks are launched from that flotilla on

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Speaker 1: Iran itself, we would expect Iran to fire back at

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Speaker 1: Israel and at that flotilla. What else would happen?

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Speaker 3: Well, I think what we can expect to happen is

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Speaker 3: that Iran would use its proxies in Lebanon, in Syria, Iraq,

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Speaker 3: and in Yemen to assist it and to bear some

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Speaker 3: of the burden of retaliating not just against Israel, but

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Speaker 3: against US and Allied targets in the region. That could

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Speaker 3: have impacts for American basis in Qatar, could have impacts

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Speaker 3: for Americans who are stationed in Jordan. There is a

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Speaker 3: very large number of American fighter jets that are currently

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Speaker 3: sitting there in anticipation of what may occur. But I

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Speaker 3: think most critical for Israel in particular is what the

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Speaker 3: proxy forces will attempt to do on its doorstep. And Hesbella,

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Speaker 3: being at one time the world's largest non state militia,

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Speaker 3: stands to post the greatest threat to Israel should a

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Speaker 3: war of this kind kickoff.

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Speaker 1: Is it possible then that we would see American forces

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Speaker 1: from that armada firing on Hesbla positions in Lebanon.

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Speaker 4: That stands to be a possibility.

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Speaker 3: It also stands to be a possibility that the Americans

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Speaker 3: and or other Allied forces, as in previous occasions, would

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Speaker 3: be mobilized to help shoot down some of the rockets

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Speaker 3: that are being fired, not just by Qesbola, but by Iran.

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Speaker 3: You see, Hesbola has been armed with substantial precision guided

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Speaker 3: missiles by Iran, and those are capable of hitting any

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Speaker 3: target in Israel. Those are what Israel fears the most,

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Speaker 3: so much a cross border attack, although that does remain

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Speaker 3: a possibility. There are troops, there has been a recruitment

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Speaker 3: effort in Lebanon, and there are Hesbela operatives who could

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Speaker 3: potentially stage a cross border rate of the kind that

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Speaker 3: we saw on October seven, twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 4: But the more likely scenario would.

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Speaker 3: Be that Esbola would join and support Iran because it

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Speaker 3: is at this point being directed by Iran, which it

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Speaker 3: hasn't been in the past, but it is now being

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Speaker 3: directed by Iranian military leaders in Lebanon to join the

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Speaker 3: war against Israel.

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Speaker 1: One of the possibilities from a conflict with the United

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Speaker 1: States is that there's regime change in Iran, that the

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Speaker 1: present regime falls in some way or at least is

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Speaker 1: significantly altered by hostilities. What do you think would happened

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Speaker 1: to Hesbola if that was the case.

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Speaker 4: I think Hesbela would continue to exist.

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Speaker 3: I mean, this is a militia group that is trying

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Speaker 3: to embed itself in the Lebanese national fabric, in its politics,

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Speaker 3: and it offers itself out to the Lebanese people as

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Speaker 3: the only force that the country has to protect itself

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Speaker 3: from any type of threat, be it Us, be it Israeli,

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Speaker 3: being Western imperialism of any sort. So Hezbollah is unlikely

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Speaker 3: to disappear simply because the supreme leader in Iran is

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Speaker 3: either deposed or assassinated or felees to Russia in the

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Speaker 3: case of what Mashar Alasad did in Syria.

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Speaker 4: It's likely to stay for a long time.

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Speaker 3: But it poses a challenge because Asbelar is unlikely to

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Speaker 3: disarm on its own, it's going to have to be dismantled.

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Speaker 4: And from the Israeli perspective.

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Speaker 3: And certainly what security observers in this country is saying

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Speaker 3: is that the only way that will happen is if

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Speaker 3: the Israelis go in and do it themselves.

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Speaker 1: I've read some reporting Yanni that one of the ways

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Speaker 1: that Iran is funneling money to Hezbollah is through the

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Speaker 1: United Arab Emirates, through Dubai and in a really fascinating

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Speaker 1: set of money exchanges a little bit like how remittances

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Speaker 1: are sent from Australia to the Pacific Islands for example,

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Speaker 1: exchange shops, money lenders, or is sort of casual network

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Speaker 1: of people transmitting money. What's your understanding of how Hezbala

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Speaker 1: is actually funding itself.

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Speaker 3: So what you're referring to there is the Hawala system,

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Speaker 3: which is an age old system of money transfers that

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Speaker 3: have been used in the Arab world and beyond, and it's.

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Speaker 4: Basically a system of trust.

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Speaker 3: Someone deposits money in one place and the money remitter

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Speaker 3: then tells someone in another location to give the money

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Speaker 3: out to a person and then a cut is taken

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Speaker 3: on either side, but the money never actually transfers from

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Speaker 3: one side the world.

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Speaker 4: To the other.

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Speaker 3: So that's how the money is being transmitted and money changed.

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Speaker 3: Systems in Dubai and in Lebanon and in other locations

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Speaker 3: are being used to facilitate those transfers. But how Hezbola

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Speaker 3: is getting its money, and we have to remember that

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Speaker 3: it really does need money because it's cash flow poor,

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Speaker 3: is through a number of means. Firstly, the Iranian regime

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Speaker 3: has funneled at least one billion US dollars three runt

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Speaker 3: just in the past twelve months. And what we know

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Speaker 3: is that that one billion dollars is higher than it's

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Speaker 3: previously provided Hesbla. We believe the estimates are around the

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Speaker 3: seven hundred million eight hundred million dollar marks. So in

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Speaker 3: the last year it's given even more money to Jesbola.

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Speaker 4: And the way it used to do that was flying

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Speaker 4: in the cash through the Beirut airport.

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Speaker 3: People would arrive with suitcases full of cash and it

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Speaker 3: would just be done in a pretty low tech way.

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Speaker 3: The Lebanese armed Forces have stopped that from occurring.

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Speaker 4: That's been one of their successes.

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Speaker 3: So Hesbela has had to find new smuggling channels to

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Speaker 3: get its arms and get its cash into the country.

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Speaker 4: What they're doing is using shipping channels.

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Speaker 3: They're trucking the money through Libya and then putting it

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Speaker 3: on cargo vessels and then dropping it out at sea,

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Speaker 3: and then someone will come and meet it out at

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Speaker 3: sea and take that cargo back to shore, or they'll

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Speaker 3: use one ship to carry the cargo and then swap

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Speaker 3: it with another ship that meets them. The other means

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Speaker 3: by which Kesbela raises its money is that it uses

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Speaker 3: front companies. Basically, there's are businessmen who are working for Hesbela,

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Speaker 3: who agree to sell Iranian crude oil to a country somewhere,

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Speaker 3: or they'll sell metals and chemicals coming out of Iran

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Speaker 3: to buy us somewhere on the planet. So basically, Hesbela

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Speaker 3: companies are using Iranian resources, selling it and then using

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Speaker 3: the money to purchase weapons, pay for the reconstruction of

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Speaker 3: towns and sudden Lebanon that have been destroyed by the war,

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Speaker 3: and to hire and pay its recruits.

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Speaker 1: Hesbela, of course, says that what it's doing is defending

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Speaker 1: Lebanon from the Great Satans of Israel and the United States.

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Speaker 1: The Lebanese government, though, on the other hand, has a

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Speaker 1: different view, and in fact they've been cooperating with the

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Speaker 1: Israeli military to try and weaken Hesbella. So how does

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Speaker 1: Lebanon fit into the picture, YAWNI, Are they just being

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Speaker 1: outsmarted by Iran and Hesbella's alternative means of getting money.

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Speaker 4: Not quite.

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Speaker 3: Look the way it's been put to me is that

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Speaker 3: the Lebanese armed forces are putting in a tokenistic effort

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Speaker 3: to try and police Hesbella, but they're not doing what

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Speaker 3: they're tasked to do, which is disarmed Hesbella.

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Speaker 4: And one of the reasons is they just can't.

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Speaker 3: Hesbella still has military control over certain parts of Lebanon.

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Speaker 3: If the his armed forces want to get access to

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Speaker 3: that territory, they have to seek permission from hesba and

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Speaker 3: Hesbola can wish to grant it or they can deny it,

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Speaker 3: so there's no seazing weapons if you can't get access

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Speaker 3: to certain bits of terrain. Occasionally we will see releases

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Speaker 3: being made public about the Lebanese Armed Forces procuring some

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Speaker 3: weapons from Hesbelah because the raids occurred. But what I'm

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Speaker 3: being told is that these are staged arrangements in which

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Speaker 3: Hesbaala will willingly or voluntarily agree to give up some weapons,

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Speaker 3: the Lebanese Armed Forces will take them, and Hesbla will

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Speaker 3: do this strategically, so it's great a stockpile of weapons

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Speaker 3: won't be touched and the Lebanese arm Forces will appear

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Speaker 3: as though they're actually doing.

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Speaker 4: A really good job. But they're not.

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Speaker 3: And when I ask people why that might be the case,

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Speaker 3: the answer commonly given to me is a demographic one.

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Speaker 3: It's because the Lebanese Armed Forces are up to sixty

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Speaker 3: percent Schiaheite Muslim, and Hesbela is a schah Eite Muslim entity,

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Speaker 3: and what that means in practice is that many of

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Speaker 3: the people who occupy the Lebanese armed forces have extended

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Speaker 3: family networks that go into Hesbala. They live in the

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Speaker 3: same villages and communities as Hesbala fighters. It's a very

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Speaker 3: awkward thing to try and manage. Lebanon has very distinct

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Speaker 3: memories of two civil wars. They don't want to become

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Speaker 3: involved in a third one. And that's ultimately where this

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Speaker 3: is heading. If the Lebanese unforces cracked down too hard

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Speaker 3: on Hesbela, the concern is that it might erupt with

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Speaker 3: another great fracture in its society, and Lebanon desperately wants

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Speaker 3: to try and avoid that.

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Speaker 1: The more SAD strikes on Hesbella's page network and then

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Speaker 1: it's walkie talkies was so effective and effective is a

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Speaker 1: piece of pr as well as a strategic operation. It

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Speaker 1: had taken decades FORMASAD to insert itself into Hesbella's supply

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Speaker 1: chain to make sure that they were supplying the pages

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Speaker 1: and the walkie talkies that subsequently they were able to detonate.

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Speaker 1: Was it then a mistake and did Israel move too

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Speaker 1: quickly in signing that cease fire in late twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 3: I would suggest the answer is no, and I would

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Speaker 3: suggest that the posed by Jesbala in twenty twenty four

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Speaker 3: was so great and so pressing that the need to

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Speaker 3: decapitate its leadership and to quite literally hobble its membership

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Speaker 3: was acute.

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Speaker 4: Israel took that opportunity.

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Speaker 3: If it hadn't have done that, it was facing cross

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Speaker 3: border raids that would have been reminiscent of what occurred

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Speaker 3: on October seven. The pressing issue that Israel faced at

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Speaker 3: the time was that it's practically its entire north had

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Speaker 3: been evacuated and hundreds of thousands of residents had to

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Speaker 3: be relocated to the south of the country or to

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Speaker 3: the center. They were being subsidized to live in hotels,

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Speaker 3: they were being subsidized to purchase food.

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Speaker 4: This was not a sustainable situation. You effectively had a

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Speaker 4: country in.

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Speaker 3: Israel that wouldn't and couldn't allow its residents to move

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Speaker 3: back to their communities and to have functioning infrastructure, essentially

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Speaker 3: a functioning society, because the threat of missiles being fired

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Speaker 3: on a daily basis was just too high. It's not

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Speaker 3: a situation in any country in the world would be

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Speaker 3: prepared to put up with. And what the people in

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Speaker 3: Israel demanded, and certainly what the northern community is demanded,

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Speaker 3: was a full scale route of Hesbela in that region

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Speaker 3: so they could return to their homes. What we've seen

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Speaker 3: since then has been the decimation of Hezbela. It's no

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Speaker 3: longer the force that it was. However, the rebuilding of

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Speaker 3: those communities in the north hasn't.

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Speaker 4: Happened at speed.

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Speaker 3: Probably a quarter of some of the biggest towns in

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Speaker 3: the north of Israel have returned. Most of the young

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Speaker 3: people who are living there aren't in a rush to

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Speaker 3: go back. They've relocated to cool, funky cities like Tel

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Speaker 3: Aviv and they like it there. So the attacks that

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Speaker 3: decimated Hesbela were by all means necessary from an Israeli

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Speaker 3: military and leadership perspective. Whether they solve the problems of

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Speaker 3: what to do with the North of Israel is a

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Speaker 3: different story.

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Speaker 1: You've been to Israel on a lot of reporting trips

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Speaker 1: since October seven, twenty twenty three, and of course you're

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Speaker 1: now are North Asia correspondent, Yoni, so this is very

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Speaker 1: North Asia. I think for you. You've come back there

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Speaker 1: to report on this build up of tensions. Now, what's

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Speaker 1: the mood in Israel compared to those earlier trips that

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Speaker 1: you've been on, which have ranged from the aftermath of

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Speaker 1: October seven to hot war between Iran and Israel.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So on previous occasions, I've arrived often with my

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Speaker 3: colleaguely and Mendez, and we've walked into what's.

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Speaker 4: Essentially been something very hot.

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Speaker 3: Missile strikes have already occurred, or, in the case of

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Speaker 3: October seven, the monumental attack itself had occurred, so we

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Speaker 3: were walking in at a time when Israelis were experiencing anger, shock, disbelief, rage,

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Speaker 3: the full spectrum of emotions. I've also been back on

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Speaker 3: two anniversaries of October seven, and the atmosphere on those

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Speaker 3: occasions is one of just immense, extraordinary sadness.

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Speaker 4: This time, it's a little bit different. We haven't had

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Speaker 4: an attack yet.

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Speaker 3: Israelis have mostly become innured to life under the threat

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Speaker 3: of missile fire from Iran or from Qresbla or Hamas

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Speaker 3: or from the Kothi's in Yemen. I would say that

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Speaker 3: since I've arrived here, the atmosphere is one of business

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Speaker 3: as usual. People aren't really talking about it. I've been

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Speaker 3: sitting in cafes eavesdropping on people between their bowls of

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Speaker 3: homels and peter bread. They're not talking about this, you know,

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Speaker 3: talking about you know, the Israeli version, so you think

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Speaker 3: you can dance all with it. And when I asked people,

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Speaker 3: you know, I've been talking to people who've been arriving

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Speaker 3: in the country. When I was standing in the airport

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Speaker 3: or standing next to two young women and I said,

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Speaker 3: it's now the right time for you guys to come here.

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Speaker 3: I understand things are going to get pretty hot. And

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Speaker 3: they said, wow, you know, that's just the way it

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Speaker 3: is around here, and we're prepared to put up with it.

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Speaker 3: So I wouldn't say the the atmosphere or the idea

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Speaker 3: in people's head is one of lack of Daisic illness.

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Speaker 3: But it seems to be that there's a contractor an

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Speaker 3: acceptance that if you come to Israel you may have

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Speaker 3: to run to a bomb shelter. And I think the

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Speaker 3: people who are living here know that, and the people

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Speaker 3: who are coming here seem to be aware of it.

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Speaker 4: So everyone's putting up with it.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned before that Israelis are much more used to

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Speaker 1: this reality of Hebella's rearming than the rest of the world,

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Speaker 1: which probably could be excused for not having paid too

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Speaker 1: much attention to that in the past couple of years.

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Speaker 1: But do you think there's a sense of disappointment that

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Speaker 1: you know there was an opportunity it seemed close at

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Speaker 1: hand that Hebela might be eliminated altogether, but that has

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Speaker 1: very much not been the case.

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Speaker 3: I don't sense a feeling of disappointments. I'm sure you

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Speaker 3: will find some people who certainly feel that way, but

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Speaker 3: I think most people would realize the reality of the

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Speaker 3: task that Israel was facing at the time. It took

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Speaker 3: out Qusbella's leadership and quite a large cohort of its membership,

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Speaker 3: at a time when it was still fighting a war

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Speaker 3: in Gaza, when it was still trying to bring home hostages,

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Speaker 3: when it was still being fired upon by the Iranians

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Speaker 3: and by the Houthis and Yemen, while it was trying

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Speaker 3: to bed down the West Bank, and while it was enduring.

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Speaker 4: Daily cyber attacks.

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Speaker 3: What it was able to achieve in relation to Hesbela

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Speaker 3: was simply extraordinary and was something unlike the world had

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Speaker 3: ever seen. I think what it did in the short

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Speaker 3: term was put an end to the persistent and real

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Speaker 3: threat of rocket fire from Hesbola. I think it's inevitable

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Speaker 3: that Hesbelah would have tried to rearm itself. It hasn't

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Speaker 3: done that to a standard where today looks like the

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Speaker 3: force it was. It's done it to a standard where

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Speaker 3: it does pose a threat, but the risk is not

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Speaker 3: as high as what it would have been if Israel

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Speaker 3: had done nothing in relation to Hesbela, because it looks

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Speaker 3: nothing like the Hesbeala that was on October sixth, twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty three.

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Speaker 1: Jodibishan, thank you very much for joining us and stay safe.

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Speaker 4: Thank you.

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Speaker 1: Jonnibishan is in the Middle East reporting for The Australian.

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Speaker 1: You can read all his reporting, plus our live coverage

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Speaker 1: of the escalating tensions, anytime at the Australian dot com

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Speaker 1: dot au