1 00:00:04,019 --> 00:00:07,830 Michael Thompson: A surprise fall in inflation raises hopes of a pause 2 00:00:07,830 --> 00:00:11,789 Michael Thompson: in rate hikes, a former senior federal Liberal MP alleged 3 00:00:11,789 --> 00:00:13,829 Michael Thompson: to have been part of a plan to funnel money 4 00:00:13,830 --> 00:00:17,070 Michael Thompson: to him in return for government contracts, and a parliamentary 5 00:00:17,070 --> 00:00:22,530 Michael Thompson: inquiry recommends banning online gambling advertisements. It's Thursday, the 29th 6 00:00:22,530 --> 00:00:26,579 Michael Thompson: of June 2023. Welcome to Fear & Greed, Australia's most popular 7 00:00:26,579 --> 00:00:30,210 Michael Thompson: business podcast. I'm Michael Thompson. And good morning, Sean Aylmer. 8 00:00:30,300 --> 00:00:31,410 Sean Aylmer: Good morning, Michael. 9 00:00:31,799 --> 00:00:34,469 Michael Thompson: Sean, you've got a great interview coming up today after 10 00:00:34,469 --> 00:00:39,059 Michael Thompson: the show. Not one but two guests today: Peter Gray 11 00:00:39,060 --> 00:00:42,180 Michael Thompson: and Larry Diamond, the co- founders of Zip Co. 12 00:00:42,420 --> 00:00:44,790 Sean Aylmer: One of the things that I really noticed from this 13 00:00:44,790 --> 00:00:48,030 Sean Aylmer: interview with Peter and Larry, they've been together 10 years. 14 00:00:48,030 --> 00:00:52,350 Sean Aylmer: In fact, last week, Zip Co had its 10th birthday, 15 00:00:52,590 --> 00:00:54,540 Sean Aylmer: and they just like each other. They get on really 16 00:00:54,540 --> 00:00:56,670 Sean Aylmer: well. Which, I think if you're in business with someone 17 00:00:56,670 --> 00:00:59,280 Sean Aylmer: for 10 years, how can you get on so well 18 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:02,970 Sean Aylmer: so particularly when they've been through the wringer and back? 19 00:01:03,719 --> 00:01:06,300 Sean Aylmer: Zip Co and the buy- now- pay- later industry have 20 00:01:06,300 --> 00:01:09,988 Sean Aylmer: had an amazing ride and an amazing fall. We talked 21 00:01:09,990 --> 00:01:12,479 Sean Aylmer: to them about that. We talked to them about regulation 22 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:15,450 Sean Aylmer: that's coming to the sector, and prospects for the company 23 00:01:15,450 --> 00:01:17,250 Sean Aylmer: itself. It's a great chat with the two of them. 24 00:01:17,490 --> 00:01:20,099 Michael Thompson: Yeah. Look, I reckon if you listen to one interview 25 00:01:20,099 --> 00:01:22,950 Michael Thompson: this week, take your pick. Take your pick, really. 26 00:01:22,980 --> 00:01:25,590 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. Absolutely. Every one a gem. 27 00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:29,189 Michael Thompson: That's right. In fact, this one's a diamond, a Larry Diamond. 28 00:01:29,940 --> 00:01:31,170 Sean Aylmer: Like it. Nice. 29 00:01:31,170 --> 00:01:34,920 Michael Thompson: Thank you. The main story this morning, Sean. Inflation fell 30 00:01:34,980 --> 00:01:38,430 Michael Thompson: last month, thanks to falling fuel and holiday travel prices, 31 00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:42,330 Michael Thompson: but probably not enough to prevent the Reserve Bank from 32 00:01:42,330 --> 00:01:43,440 Michael Thompson: lifting interest rates again. 33 00:01:43,980 --> 00:01:46,950 Sean Aylmer: The pace of inflation fell from 6. 8% in April to 5. 34 00:01:46,950 --> 00:01:50,940 Sean Aylmer: 6% in May, according to the Bureau of Statistics. It 35 00:01:50,940 --> 00:01:54,300 Sean Aylmer: was well below market economists' expectations and sent the Aussie 36 00:01:54,300 --> 00:01:57,330 Sean Aylmer: dollar lower and the share market higher. If you exclude 37 00:01:57,330 --> 00:02:01,019 Sean Aylmer: volatile items, though, such as petrol prices and holiday travel, 38 00:02:01,380 --> 00:02:06,870 Sean Aylmer: annual inflation fell only modestly, to 6.4% from 6.5% the 39 00:02:06,870 --> 00:02:10,800 Sean Aylmer: previous month. That remains uncomfortably high. That seems to be 40 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:13,290 Sean Aylmer: the euphemism being used at the moment, according to the 41 00:02:13,290 --> 00:02:16,230 Sean Aylmer: experts. Now, this is a new series of data from 42 00:02:16,230 --> 00:02:18,389 Sean Aylmer: the Bureau of Statistics, and while the Reserve Bank relies 43 00:02:18,389 --> 00:02:21,690 Sean Aylmer: mostly on the quarterly figures, Central Bank has said it's 44 00:02:21,690 --> 00:02:25,950 Sean Aylmer: watching this monthly series closely. Treasurer Jim Chalmers yesterday said 45 00:02:25,950 --> 00:02:28,590 Sean Aylmer: the data showed that inflation was moderating, but not as 46 00:02:28,590 --> 00:02:31,500 Sean Aylmer: fast as he would like. He was speaking after news 47 00:02:31,500 --> 00:02:34,650 Sean Aylmer: broke that the budget surplus this financial year will actually 48 00:02:34,650 --> 00:02:38,519 Sean Aylmer: be bigger than the $ 4. 2 billion forecast in last 49 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:42,060 Sean Aylmer: month's budget. That's thanks to the very, very strong labor 50 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:43,739 Sean Aylmer: market and high corporate taxes. 51 00:02:44,669 --> 00:02:47,280 Michael Thompson: Sean, it sounds like good news, at least in terms 52 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:50,669 Michael Thompson: of interest rates. What prices are going up, and what's 53 00:02:50,669 --> 00:02:51,329 Michael Thompson: going down? 54 00:02:51,750 --> 00:02:54,240 Sean Aylmer: Well, rents have been a major driver of inflation over 55 00:02:54,240 --> 00:02:57,089 Sean Aylmer: the past year or so. Social energy prices, thanks to 56 00:02:57,089 --> 00:03:01,380 Sean Aylmer: the disruption caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, electricity prices 57 00:03:01,380 --> 00:03:04,080 Sean Aylmer: are up a massive 14. 1% over the past 12 58 00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:07,139 Sean Aylmer: months. And of course, they're heading higher. On the flip 59 00:03:07,139 --> 00:03:10,349 Sean Aylmer: side, interest rate hikes are impacting household spending, and as 60 00:03:10,349 --> 00:03:13,320 Sean Aylmer: a result, prices in some other areas, such as clothing 61 00:03:13,320 --> 00:03:17,940 Sean Aylmer: and footwear, have actually fallen. In some sectors, like construction, 62 00:03:18,119 --> 00:03:21,600 Sean Aylmer: prices are still rising, but nowhere near the pace of 63 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:25,050 Sean Aylmer: 12 months ago. There are a lot of moving parts 64 00:03:25,110 --> 00:03:27,359 Sean Aylmer: in the economy and in that inflation number. 65 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:31,859 Michael Thompson: We've talked, Sean, about excluding volatile items and the reason 66 00:03:31,860 --> 00:03:34,349 Michael Thompson: why that is done, in order to give a more 67 00:03:34,350 --> 00:03:39,240 Michael Thompson: accurate trend underlying. You mentioned that the petrol prices and 68 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:43,170 Michael Thompson: holiday travel are considered volatile items, and I ask you 69 00:03:43,170 --> 00:03:45,690 Michael Thompson: this every time. I get petrol prices because they do 70 00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:49,230 Michael Thompson: fluctuate so much, but why would holiday travel be counted 71 00:03:49,230 --> 00:03:52,199 Michael Thompson: as something that is volatile and should be excluded in 72 00:03:52,199 --> 00:03:53,669 Michael Thompson: order to give a more accurate reading? 73 00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:58,470 Sean Aylmer: It's very seasonal, that's one thing. Because you have school 74 00:03:58,470 --> 00:04:02,520 Sean Aylmer: holidays and things like that. The timing of the school 75 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:06,900 Sean Aylmer: holidays change during the year, so that's a reason. But 76 00:04:07,410 --> 00:04:09,900 Sean Aylmer: just any of those items that tend to jump around year- to- 77 00:04:09,900 --> 00:04:12,389 Sean Aylmer: year, they're much harder to seasonally adjust, so they like 78 00:04:12,389 --> 00:04:13,230 Sean Aylmer: to exclude those. 79 00:04:13,680 --> 00:04:16,589 Michael Thompson: Okay. All right. Piece by piece, it feels like every 80 00:04:16,589 --> 00:04:19,859 Michael Thompson: month, I'm now putting together a more comprehensive list of 81 00:04:19,860 --> 00:04:21,988 Michael Thompson: what would be classed as a volatile item. Maybe I'll 82 00:04:21,990 --> 00:04:23,849 Michael Thompson: just ask you for that off- air. " Sean, can you 83 00:04:23,849 --> 00:04:26,130 Michael Thompson: just list all the volatile items, and then I'll stop 84 00:04:26,130 --> 00:04:29,250 Michael Thompson: asking you on air every day?" Sean, the big question 85 00:04:29,490 --> 00:04:31,650 Michael Thompson: is, of course, are we going to get more rate 86 00:04:31,650 --> 00:04:33,000 Michael Thompson: rises now from the Reserve Bank? 87 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:36,900 Sean Aylmer: Well, yesterday's data certainly gives the Reserve Bank a reason 88 00:04:36,900 --> 00:04:40,409 Sean Aylmer: to pause, but the monthly data jumps around a fair 89 00:04:40,410 --> 00:04:44,520 Sean Aylmer: bit. And undoubtedly, the Central Bank is still very worried 90 00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:49,350 Sean Aylmer: about wages and wage pressures pushing up prices. Inflation peaked 91 00:04:49,410 --> 00:04:51,930 Sean Aylmer: last December. We can confidently say that. We can also 92 00:04:51,930 --> 00:04:54,539 Sean Aylmer: confidently say it's on the way down. In fact, if 93 00:04:54,540 --> 00:04:58,740 Sean Aylmer: you average the last three monthly figures, inflation's running about 94 00:04:59,730 --> 00:05:03,660 Sean Aylmer: 6.2%. Much better, but still too high. The consensus among 95 00:05:03,660 --> 00:05:06,330 Sean Aylmer: market economists is that there is still a rate hike 96 00:05:06,330 --> 00:05:09,480 Sean Aylmer: or two in the offing. Bond markets have priced in about a 50/ 97 00:05:09,510 --> 00:05:12,210 Sean Aylmer: 50 chance of a rate rise in the next five 98 00:05:12,210 --> 00:05:14,700 Sean Aylmer: weeks. There are two Reserve Bank board meetings over the 99 00:05:14,700 --> 00:05:17,759 Sean Aylmer: next five weeks, so there's a 50% chance that at 100 00:05:17,759 --> 00:05:19,830 Sean Aylmer: least one of those will end up with higher rates. 101 00:05:20,490 --> 00:05:23,189 Sean Aylmer: The short answer is probably yes, we are going to 102 00:05:23,190 --> 00:05:24,089 Sean Aylmer: get more rate rises. 103 00:05:24,389 --> 00:05:26,880 Michael Thompson: Oh, thank you. How do the local markets respond? 104 00:05:27,390 --> 00:05:30,960 Sean Aylmer: S& P/ ASX 200 closed up more than 1%, to just under 7, 105 00:05:30,960 --> 00:05:34,170 Sean Aylmer: 200 points. It followed that inflation data, and also a 106 00:05:34,170 --> 00:05:37,349 Sean Aylmer: strong lead- in from Wall Street. Interest rate- sensitive stocks, 107 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:40,948 Sean Aylmer: consumer discretionary, real estate, and financials did best. Among the 108 00:05:40,949 --> 00:05:43,770 Sean Aylmer: large caps, National Australia Bank and Westpac, both rose nearly 109 00:05:43,770 --> 00:05:46,560 Sean Aylmer: 2%, while Commonwealth Bank and INZ were up more than 110 00:05:46,560 --> 00:05:50,160 Sean Aylmer: 1%. REA Group jumped 3%. Goodman Group was up more 111 00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:52,529 Sean Aylmer: than 2%. In fact, the only top 30 stock to 112 00:05:52,529 --> 00:05:56,849 Sean Aylmer: go backwards yesterday was CSL. The best among the consumer 113 00:05:56,849 --> 00:06:02,010 Sean Aylmer: discretionary stocks with Lovisa, Super Retail, Eagers Automotive, and Domino's. 114 00:06:02,310 --> 00:06:03,960 Sean Aylmer: As I mentioned, it was another good day for real 115 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:06,330 Sean Aylmer: estate stocks. 10 in a row, Michael. Pretty good for that 116 00:06:06,330 --> 00:06:09,570 Sean Aylmer: sector. Real estate stocks carry plenty of debt, so they 117 00:06:09,570 --> 00:06:13,229 Sean Aylmer: tend to underperform when rates are rising. So the milder 118 00:06:13,230 --> 00:06:15,539 Sean Aylmer: inflation and hopes that rates won't have to rise as 119 00:06:15,540 --> 00:06:19,740 Sean Aylmer: much is good news for property companies. Mirvac, Lendlease, Stockland, and Charter 120 00:06:19,740 --> 00:06:22,680 Sean Aylmer: Hall all did well yesterday. Best on the day was 121 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:26,428 Sean Aylmer: the Star Entertainment Group, up 12%. Now, it's had a 122 00:06:26,428 --> 00:06:29,969 Sean Aylmer: horror run on the back of multiple state inquiries and 123 00:06:29,969 --> 00:06:33,270 Sean Aylmer: fines, and its share price is about one quarter where 124 00:06:33,270 --> 00:06:36,089 Sean Aylmer: it was in September 2021, but yesterday was a good 125 00:06:36,089 --> 00:06:38,549 Sean Aylmer: one for the gambling group. The worst performer was Bega 126 00:06:38,550 --> 00:06:42,000 Sean Aylmer: Cheese, which, on Tuesday, said it had sold its Vegemite 127 00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:45,870 Sean Aylmer: factory. That's the property, not the asset. And other property 128 00:06:45,870 --> 00:06:48,539 Sean Aylmer: sales are on the cards after it flagged a large 129 00:06:48,540 --> 00:06:50,969 Sean Aylmer: impairment. Yesterday, it closed down more than 8%. 130 00:06:52,289 --> 00:06:53,520 Michael Thompson: All right. What about international markets? 131 00:06:53,910 --> 00:06:56,549 Sean Aylmer: Oil prices rose after a fall in stockpiles in the 132 00:06:56,550 --> 00:07:00,060 Sean Aylmer: US. Other commodities were mixed, though gold continues its recent 133 00:07:00,060 --> 00:07:03,719 Sean Aylmer: slide. Bitcoin is holding onto gains. It's trading around those one- 134 00:07:03,719 --> 00:07:08,130 Sean Aylmer: year high levels. Now, over the past 48 hours, asset 135 00:07:08,130 --> 00:07:12,689 Sean Aylmer: manager Fidelity is reportedly prepared to file for a spot exchange- 136 00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:18,180 Sean Aylmer: traded fund, an ETF based on Bitcoin. That's yet another 137 00:07:18,180 --> 00:07:21,360 Sean Aylmer: asset manager doing it. That is certainly pushing some confidence 138 00:07:21,570 --> 00:07:24,360 Sean Aylmer: into that market. The Aussie dollar, we mentioned at the 139 00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:26,520 Sean Aylmer: top of the show, it fell back on the inflation 140 00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:29,789 Sean Aylmer: news. It's trading under 66 and a half US cents. 141 00:07:30,029 --> 00:07:32,010 Michael Thompson: All right. There's a bit happening today, Sean. We'll be 142 00:07:32,010 --> 00:07:33,660 Michael Thompson: back in a moment with the rest of the day's 143 00:07:33,660 --> 00:07:43,799 Michael Thompson: business news. Sean, Government Services Minister Bill Shorten is seeking 144 00:07:43,799 --> 00:07:47,580 Michael Thompson: advice about how to respond to allegations. A consultancy sought 145 00:07:47,670 --> 00:07:50,910 Michael Thompson: to funnel money to former Liberal MP Stuart Robert in 146 00:07:50,910 --> 00:07:53,220 Michael Thompson: exchange for government services contracts. 147 00:07:53,490 --> 00:07:56,400 Sean Aylmer: A pretty amazing story, this one. Sean said he had 148 00:07:56,400 --> 00:07:59,280 Sean Aylmer: immediately asked for advice from his agency about how to 149 00:07:59,280 --> 00:08:03,420 Sean Aylmer: investigate claims contained in a sworn statement tendered by a 150 00:08:03,420 --> 00:08:08,250 Sean Aylmer: whistleblower to a parliamentary committee that's looking into Stuart Robert's 151 00:08:08,310 --> 00:08:12,540 Sean Aylmer: links with consultancy Synergy 360. According to the Financial Review, 152 00:08:12,540 --> 00:08:15,929 Sean Aylmer: the statement alleges that a consulting company run by friends 153 00:08:15,929 --> 00:08:19,380 Sean Aylmer: of Robert established a firm to funnel money to the 154 00:08:19,380 --> 00:08:23,279 Sean Aylmer: MP, in return for him using his position as a 155 00:08:23,279 --> 00:08:26,490 Sean Aylmer: minister in the Morrison government to help the consultancy and 156 00:08:26,490 --> 00:08:31,770 Sean Aylmer: its clients win government service contracts. Quite remarkable allegations. Now, 157 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:36,059 Sean Aylmer: Robert vehemently denies the allegations. He pointed out that they 158 00:08:36,059 --> 00:08:39,749 Sean Aylmer: were made under privilege, not in public, and he said 159 00:08:39,750 --> 00:08:42,149 Sean Aylmer: it's an abuse of that privilege. He also said there 160 00:08:42,150 --> 00:08:46,290 Sean Aylmer: is zero evidence to support the allegations. Asked about whether 161 00:08:46,290 --> 00:08:48,000 Sean Aylmer: the issue should be a matter of the National Anti- 162 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:50,848 Sean Aylmer: Corruption Commission, which is set up for this type of 163 00:08:50,849 --> 00:08:53,670 Sean Aylmer: thing, Shorten said it was up to the independent commission 164 00:08:53,670 --> 00:08:55,920 Sean Aylmer: to decide, but certainly, we're going to hear a lot 165 00:08:55,920 --> 00:08:58,109 Sean Aylmer: more about this one in the next few days. 166 00:08:58,289 --> 00:09:01,020 Michael Thompson: Yeah, it's a big story, that one. Now, I mentioned this next 167 00:09:01,020 --> 00:09:02,939 Michael Thompson: one at the top of the show, Sean. A parliamentary 168 00:09:02,940 --> 00:09:07,890 Michael Thompson: inquiry has recommended banning all advertisements for online gambling within 169 00:09:07,890 --> 00:09:08,760 Michael Thompson: three years. 170 00:09:09,150 --> 00:09:12,480 Sean Aylmer: The final report of the inquiry into online gambling harm 171 00:09:12,480 --> 00:09:15,598 Sean Aylmer: in Australia put forward 31 recommendations and called for a 172 00:09:15,599 --> 00:09:19,860 Sean Aylmer: crackdown on an industry that was, in its words, " manipulating 173 00:09:19,920 --> 00:09:24,000 Sean Aylmer: an impressionable and vulnerable audience". One of the recommendations is 174 00:09:24,000 --> 00:09:27,299 Sean Aylmer: to phase out online gambling ads over three years. The 175 00:09:27,300 --> 00:09:29,999 Sean Aylmer: first stage of that plan would feature a ban on 176 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:33,360 Sean Aylmer: online gambling ads during school pickup and drop- off periods, 177 00:09:33,630 --> 00:09:35,879 Sean Aylmer: as well as removal of exemptions for the ads during 178 00:09:35,879 --> 00:09:39,328 Sean Aylmer: news and current affairs broadcast, and then the ban would 179 00:09:39,330 --> 00:09:43,110 Sean Aylmer: progressively become more stringent. Ads on racing channels will be 180 00:09:43,110 --> 00:09:46,468 Sean Aylmer: exempt under the proposal. Other recommendations put forward in the 181 00:09:46,469 --> 00:09:50,310 Sean Aylmer: report included a national strategy for online gambling harm reduction, 182 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:54,059 Sean Aylmer: a public education campaign, a requirement for gamblers to have 183 00:09:54,059 --> 00:09:58,108 Sean Aylmer: their identities verified before wagering, and a harm- reduction levy. 184 00:09:58,410 --> 00:10:01,078 Sean Aylmer: Now, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese spoke about it yesterday. He 185 00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:05,009 Sean Aylmer: described gambling ads as reprehensible, and he said a range 186 00:10:05,010 --> 00:10:06,179 Sean Aylmer: of measures are needed. 187 00:10:06,570 --> 00:10:10,109 Michael Thompson: Sean, the latest QS World University Rankings have named the 188 00:10:10,109 --> 00:10:13,679 Michael Thompson: Universities of Melbourne, Sydney, and New South Wales in the 189 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:18,059 Michael Thompson: global top 20, while ANU, Australian National University, has fallen 190 00:10:18,059 --> 00:10:18,780 Michael Thompson: down the list. 191 00:10:18,870 --> 00:10:21,120 Sean Aylmer: I get a bit confused with the university rankings, so 192 00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:23,160 Sean Aylmer: I had to do a little bit of work yesterday. 193 00:10:23,309 --> 00:10:25,800 Sean Aylmer: There's three main university rankings. 194 00:10:26,670 --> 00:10:27,479 Michael Thompson: That's confusing. 195 00:10:27,719 --> 00:10:31,320 Sean Aylmer: Yes. The QS World University Rankings, which were out over the 196 00:10:31,320 --> 00:10:35,490 Sean Aylmer: past 36 hours or so, the Times Higher Education Rankings, 197 00:10:35,820 --> 00:10:40,588 Sean Aylmer: and the Academic Ranking of World Universities. Now, Australian universities 198 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:45,480 Sean Aylmer: do differently in different rankings, obviously. Across all three, the 199 00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:48,449 Sean Aylmer: University of Melbourne really comes in best across all three. 200 00:10:48,780 --> 00:10:52,650 Sean Aylmer: The QS Rankings changed methodology this year and the ranking 201 00:10:52,650 --> 00:10:55,439 Sean Aylmer: now has a bias towards large, comprehensive unis with big 202 00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:59,250 Sean Aylmer: enrollments of international students. As a result, ANU fell down 203 00:10:59,250 --> 00:11:03,690 Sean Aylmer: the rankings, from 30 to 34, while Melbourne Uni went from 33 204 00:11:03,690 --> 00:11:07,410 Sean Aylmer: to 14, Sydney Uni went from 41 to 19, and the 205 00:11:07,410 --> 00:11:10,650 Sean Aylmer: University of New South Wales went from 45 to 19 206 00:11:10,650 --> 00:11:13,618 Sean Aylmer: as well. It means three Australian universities are now in the 207 00:11:13,620 --> 00:11:17,189 Sean Aylmer: top 20. That's pretty remarkable. Nine in the top 100. 208 00:11:17,759 --> 00:11:20,069 Sean Aylmer: Michael, just out of interest, the top five in the 209 00:11:20,070 --> 00:11:24,750 Sean Aylmer: World Rankings are MIT, Cambridge ... Sorry, MIT is in Massachusetts, 210 00:11:24,750 --> 00:11:28,710 Sean Aylmer: in Boston, outside of Boston, Cambridge in the UK, Oxford 211 00:11:28,710 --> 00:11:30,480 Sean Aylmer: in the UK, Harvard and Stanford. 212 00:11:31,830 --> 00:11:35,579 Michael Thompson: That's quite an interesting ranking, and those changes are interesting. 213 00:11:35,580 --> 00:11:39,690 Michael Thompson: Does that mean if I've taken accurate notes as you've 214 00:11:39,690 --> 00:11:43,800 Michael Thompson: been talking, that ANU effectively went from being the best 215 00:11:43,980 --> 00:11:47,640 Michael Thompson: Australian university to the fourth best in one go? 216 00:11:47,850 --> 00:11:51,509 Sean Aylmer: Yes, but they did point out, it's not necessarily ... Because 217 00:11:51,510 --> 00:11:55,650 Sean Aylmer: they've basically changed the way they're ranking them. ANU has 218 00:11:55,650 --> 00:11:57,839 Sean Aylmer: nowhere near the number of international students that the University 219 00:11:57,839 --> 00:12:00,600 Sean Aylmer: of New South Wales has, for example. Nowhere near as 220 00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:03,328 Sean Aylmer: big, so that's why it fell down the rankings. But 221 00:12:03,750 --> 00:12:05,190 Sean Aylmer: look, it's not a good look for ANU. 222 00:12:05,700 --> 00:12:09,900 Michael Thompson: Yeah. Suddenly, ANU prefers the Times Higher Education Ranking or 223 00:12:09,900 --> 00:12:12,598 Michael Thompson: the Academic Ranking of the World Universities. That's the benefit of 224 00:12:12,599 --> 00:12:16,079 Michael Thompson: having three different ranking systems. You can just pick your favorite. 225 00:12:16,139 --> 00:12:17,849 Sean Aylmer: Totally. Yeah. Absolutely. 226 00:12:19,259 --> 00:12:23,910 Michael Thompson: Sean, Harvey Norman yesterday, share price jumped 5%, even though 227 00:12:23,910 --> 00:12:26,639 Michael Thompson: the retailer warned it is on track for a sharp 228 00:12:26,639 --> 00:12:29,880 Michael Thompson: fall in earnings amid high living costs and a drop 229 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:30,930 Michael Thompson: in consumer spending. 230 00:12:31,469 --> 00:12:33,660 Sean Aylmer: Analysts reckon earnings for the current six months will be 231 00:12:33,660 --> 00:12:37,920 Sean Aylmer: down between 40 and 45% compared to a market expectation of about 232 00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:41,458 Sean Aylmer: 30%. Harvey Norman did well during COVID, with revenues from 233 00:12:41,460 --> 00:12:45,480 Sean Aylmer: products like office supplies and furnishings doing pretty well, but 234 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:48,360 Sean Aylmer: interest rates have hit household budgets. Harvey Norman is the 235 00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:51,660 Sean Aylmer: latest in a string of retailers, think Best & Less, Universal 236 00:12:51,660 --> 00:12:55,949 Sean Aylmer: Store, Adairs, Premier Investments, Wesfarmers, et cetera, et cetera, to 237 00:12:55,950 --> 00:12:59,460 Sean Aylmer: warn about this slowdown. The question though is, why the 238 00:12:59,460 --> 00:13:01,920 Sean Aylmer: jump in the share price? I was going to just 239 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:05,010 Sean Aylmer: ignore this and pretend, but to be honest, I don't 240 00:13:05,010 --> 00:13:07,979 Sean Aylmer: really know the answer. You have this massive downgrade and 241 00:13:07,980 --> 00:13:10,769 Sean Aylmer: then get a 5% share price jump. The inflation news 242 00:13:10,770 --> 00:13:14,160 Sean Aylmer: yesterday helped retail stocks, but that's only going to be 243 00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:17,730 Sean Aylmer: part of the reason. Maybe the Harvey Norman news wasn't 244 00:13:17,730 --> 00:13:20,610 Sean Aylmer: as bad as some analysts expected. Not really sure. It's 245 00:13:20,610 --> 00:13:24,450 Sean Aylmer: just interesting that you can get such a massive downgrade 246 00:13:25,110 --> 00:13:27,809 Sean Aylmer: and then end up with just about the best performing 247 00:13:27,809 --> 00:13:28,890 Sean Aylmer: stock on the share market. 248 00:13:29,580 --> 00:13:30,420 Michael Thompson: Curious. 249 00:13:30,660 --> 00:13:35,160 Sean Aylmer: Curious. I am curious. If anyone knows the answer, please 250 00:13:35,160 --> 00:13:35,699 Sean Aylmer: let me know. 251 00:13:35,970 --> 00:13:39,389 Michael Thompson: Yeah, indeed. Now, Sean, the number of households on hardship 252 00:13:39,389 --> 00:13:44,458 Michael Thompson: payment plans to repay electricity bills jumped by 19% during 253 00:13:44,460 --> 00:13:47,699 Michael Thompson: the first quarter of 2023. This is according to the 254 00:13:47,699 --> 00:13:50,490 Michael Thompson: Australian Energy Regulator. That's pretty confronting. 255 00:13:50,820 --> 00:13:54,179 Sean Aylmer: Yes. It underscores the impact of the recent surge in 256 00:13:54,179 --> 00:13:57,840 Sean Aylmer: electricity prices, and the figure could yet grow further as 257 00:13:57,840 --> 00:14:01,140 Sean Aylmer: Australians will, from July 1st, begin paying even higher bills. 258 00:14:01,559 --> 00:14:05,519 Sean Aylmer: The Australian Energy Regulator said between January 1st and March 259 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:10,530 Sean Aylmer: 31st, 1.3% of all Australian households were on payment plans to 260 00:14:10,530 --> 00:14:14,010 Sean Aylmer: repay electricity bills, according to a story in The Australian. 261 00:14:14,460 --> 00:14:18,630 Sean Aylmer: Customers repaying gas bills via payment plans also rose. Queensland 262 00:14:18,630 --> 00:14:22,320 Sean Aylmer: had the largest quarter increase, with 15% more households on 263 00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:25,590 Sean Aylmer: payment plans. South Australia has the biggest number of customers 264 00:14:25,590 --> 00:14:29,010 Sean Aylmer: on hardship plans, with about 2% of all customers on structured 265 00:14:29,010 --> 00:14:32,430 Sean Aylmer: payments after being unable to pay their bills when due. 266 00:14:33,330 --> 00:14:35,400 Michael Thompson: Sean, last story before we get to international news. A 267 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:37,499 Michael Thompson: bit of good news for any parent who's ever been 268 00:14:37,500 --> 00:14:41,099 Michael Thompson: hassled at the checkouts to buy something. Woolworths is set 269 00:14:41,100 --> 00:14:45,240 Michael Thompson: to remove children's lollies and confectionary from checkouts and instead, 270 00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:47,670 Michael Thompson: use the space for healthier food choices. 271 00:14:47,730 --> 00:14:50,100 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. Bad news for we adults though, that like to 272 00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:52,230 Sean Aylmer: buy the Mars bar on the way through. 273 00:14:52,230 --> 00:14:54,419 Michael Thompson: Well, I'll tell you what, I'm actually just thinking about 274 00:14:54,420 --> 00:14:58,799 Michael Thompson: this now and putting together a list on the fly 275 00:14:59,430 --> 00:15:03,390 Michael Thompson: of the top three checkout chocolates. Number one is the 276 00:15:03,390 --> 00:15:08,190 Michael Thompson: Milky Way, number two is the Caramello Koala, and number three, 277 00:15:08,910 --> 00:15:11,820 Michael Thompson: the Curly Wurly. What's going to happen to the poor 278 00:15:11,820 --> 00:15:13,080 Michael Thompson: Curly Wurly now? 279 00:15:14,759 --> 00:15:17,550 Sean Aylmer: Are these real, or this just your top three? 280 00:15:17,730 --> 00:15:22,410 Michael Thompson: This is according to ... It's an extensive survey of one. 281 00:15:22,410 --> 00:15:25,229 Sean Aylmer: Michael Thompson's favorite. What is that? Milky Way wouldn't make 282 00:15:25,230 --> 00:15:29,310 Sean Aylmer: my top. Caramello Koala, absolutely. Curly Wurly? Wow. 283 00:15:29,340 --> 00:15:32,639 Michael Thompson: Yeah. Milky Way is the classic supermarket chocolate because it's 284 00:15:32,639 --> 00:15:34,529 Michael Thompson: the one that you can give to the kids as 285 00:15:34,529 --> 00:15:36,389 Michael Thompson: you're doing the shopping, or you can eat it yourself 286 00:15:36,450 --> 00:15:38,460 Michael Thompson: as you're doing the shopping. 287 00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:39,270 Sean Aylmer: Do you pay for it? 288 00:15:39,450 --> 00:15:42,330 Michael Thompson: Yes, of course you do. You take the empty wrapper 289 00:15:42,390 --> 00:15:45,240 Michael Thompson: and you scan that. I reckon when I was working 290 00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:47,790 Michael Thompson: at Bi- Lo, on the checkouts, this is quite some 291 00:15:47,790 --> 00:15:52,199 Michael Thompson: time ago, I reckon I scanned more empty wrappers for 292 00:15:52,199 --> 00:15:55,110 Michael Thompson: Milky Ways than any other empty wrappers. 293 00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:55,619 Sean Aylmer: Ah. 294 00:15:55,890 --> 00:15:58,110 Michael Thompson: But yeah, so the Milky Way. And also, they're typically 295 00:15:58,110 --> 00:16:01,770 Michael Thompson: about 50 cents, so they're an affordable option in the 296 00:16:01,770 --> 00:16:05,369 Michael Thompson: cost of living crisis. Milky Way, number one, Caramello Koala, 297 00:16:05,370 --> 00:16:10,500 Michael Thompson: number two, Curly Wurly, number three. It is the quintessential 298 00:16:10,799 --> 00:16:13,920 Michael Thompson: checkout chocolate. Now that they're not going to be stocked 299 00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:16,410 Michael Thompson: at the checkout, I fear for the future of the 300 00:16:16,410 --> 00:16:16,980 Michael Thompson: Curly Wurly. 301 00:16:17,670 --> 00:16:19,380 Sean Aylmer: You might be right. Do you know what Woolies calls 302 00:16:19,380 --> 00:16:22,170 Sean Aylmer: these? Woolies calls them sometimes food. 303 00:16:23,340 --> 00:16:25,710 Michael Thompson: Sometimes, you can get out of the shop without buying 304 00:16:25,710 --> 00:16:26,401 Michael Thompson: the kids one. Yeah. 305 00:16:26,401 --> 00:16:33,000 Sean Aylmer: Apparently, the aisle ends will still feature these sometimes food. 306 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:35,460 Sean Aylmer: It treats things like chips when they're on special. They'll 307 00:16:35,460 --> 00:16:38,340 Sean Aylmer: still be on those aisle ends, but they are trying 308 00:16:38,340 --> 00:16:42,719 Sean Aylmer: to include much greater snacking options and they're using the 309 00:16:42,719 --> 00:16:45,629 Sean Aylmer: Health Star Rating. Anything above three- and- a- half stars 310 00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:50,850 Sean Aylmer: is considered healthier, at least in Woolies' view, and so 311 00:16:50,850 --> 00:16:53,790 Sean Aylmer: they're going to put those next to these sometimes foods 312 00:16:53,790 --> 00:16:58,229 Sean Aylmer: apparently. The supermarket's managing director, Natalie Davis, said the shift 313 00:16:58,230 --> 00:17:02,340 Sean Aylmer: should make a positive change to shopping habits. I wonder 314 00:17:02,340 --> 00:17:04,080 Sean Aylmer: if that's the case. Maybe. 315 00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:06,629 Michael Thompson: I'm still stuck on the Curly Wurlies. 316 00:17:06,779 --> 00:17:10,138 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. Yeah. By the way, she also mentioned yesterday that 317 00:17:10,710 --> 00:17:14,758 Sean Aylmer: vegetable prices are lower after months of price inflation. That's 318 00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:17,910 Sean Aylmer: some good news for we healthy people. Pescatarians out there. 319 00:17:18,780 --> 00:17:22,709 Michael Thompson: International news now. New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has 320 00:17:22,709 --> 00:17:26,908 Michael Thompson: received a warm reception from Chinese President Xi Jinping in 321 00:17:26,910 --> 00:17:29,040 Michael Thompson: the pair's first bilateral meeting. 322 00:17:29,460 --> 00:17:32,188 Sean Aylmer: The leaders met in Beijing's Great Hall of the People 323 00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:35,668 Sean Aylmer: late on Tuesday night, with Xi labeling New Zealand a 324 00:17:35,670 --> 00:17:39,750 Sean Aylmer: friend and partner. He said bilateral ties have continued to 325 00:17:39,750 --> 00:17:42,958 Sean Aylmer: grow in a sound and steady manner and amid the 326 00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:46,800 Sean Aylmer: changing international landscape, the relationship between the two countries has 327 00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:51,720 Sean Aylmer: remained robust and strong, bringing tangible assets to both economies. 328 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:55,229 Sean Aylmer: Now, the meeting is the centerpiece of Hipkins' five- day 329 00:17:55,230 --> 00:17:58,199 Sean Aylmer: trade mission to China this week. Hipkins said he felt 330 00:17:58,199 --> 00:18:01,530 Sean Aylmer: comfortable with Xi. He said he was easy to speak 331 00:18:01,530 --> 00:18:05,609 Sean Aylmer: to, and he repeatedly labeled the meeting warm and constructive. 332 00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:09,541 Sean Aylmer: Hipkins said that at no point was the meeting adversarial. There you go. 333 00:18:09,541 --> 00:18:14,670 Michael Thompson: That's good news. Now, UBS is planning to cut more 334 00:18:14,670 --> 00:18:20,100 Michael Thompson: than half of Credit Suisse's 45, 000 strong workforce starting next 335 00:18:20,100 --> 00:18:22,890 Michael Thompson: month, as a result of the bank's emergency takeover. 336 00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:26,820 Sean Aylmer: Bankers, traders, support staff, and Credit Suisse's Investment Bank in 337 00:18:26,820 --> 00:18:30,030 Sean Aylmer: London, New York, and some parts of this region in 338 00:18:30,030 --> 00:18:33,839 Sean Aylmer: Asia are expected to bear the brunt of most of 339 00:18:33,839 --> 00:18:37,020 Sean Aylmer: the cuts. According to Bloomberg, staffers have been told to 340 00:18:37,020 --> 00:18:39,750 Sean Aylmer: expect three rounds of cuts this year, the first by 341 00:18:39,750 --> 00:18:42,629 Sean Aylmer: the end of next month. Then, two more rounds tentatively 342 00:18:42,630 --> 00:18:47,398 Sean Aylmer: planned for September and October. UBS, whose combined workforce jumped 343 00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:50,638 Sean Aylmer: to about 120,000 when the deal closed, has said it 344 00:18:50,638 --> 00:18:53,579 Sean Aylmer: aims to save about 6 billion US dollars in staff 345 00:18:53,580 --> 00:18:54,750 Sean Aylmer: costs in the coming years. 346 00:18:55,109 --> 00:18:57,720 Michael Thompson: All right. Last one, Sean. The Rugby World Cup starts 347 00:18:57,720 --> 00:18:59,640 Michael Thompson: in a couple of months in France, and the New 348 00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:02,188 Michael Thompson: Zealand All Blacks, whom, for decades, have been among the 349 00:19:02,190 --> 00:19:05,969 Michael Thompson: best or the best team in the world, has called 350 00:19:05,969 --> 00:19:08,850 Michael Thompson: on a French fashion designer to help with their kit. 351 00:19:09,330 --> 00:19:12,089 Sean Aylmer: Not only are they going to beat us, they're going to look 352 00:19:12,090 --> 00:19:12,990 Sean Aylmer: good while doing it. 353 00:19:13,950 --> 00:19:16,619 Michael Thompson: It's just like the ultimate insult, isn't it? " You know 354 00:19:16,619 --> 00:19:19,290 Michael Thompson: what? We're not even worried about training. We're focusing on 355 00:19:19,290 --> 00:19:21,060 Michael Thompson: what we're wearing. We are that confident." 356 00:19:22,469 --> 00:19:26,460 Sean Aylmer: With good reason. That's what's even more infuriating. Adidas, which 357 00:19:26,460 --> 00:19:30,900 Sean Aylmer: supplies the team's iconic all- black kit, has teamed with Paris- 358 00:19:30,900 --> 00:19:35,280 Sean Aylmer: based street- style designer, Fey the Wolf, is the person's 359 00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:36,270 Sean Aylmer: name. Don't you love that? 360 00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:40,289 Michael Thompson: Sean, quick question for you. Do you know what a street- style 361 00:19:40,290 --> 00:19:41,430 Michael Thompson: designer is? 362 00:19:42,179 --> 00:19:45,089 Sean Aylmer: Certainly not one called Fey the Wolf. Absolutely no idea. 363 00:19:45,210 --> 00:19:47,939 Michael Thompson: Not familiar? Particularly familiar with his work? 364 00:19:48,210 --> 00:19:53,158 Sean Aylmer: No. No. No. Fey the Wolf is coming in to develop unique features 365 00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:55,170 Sean Aylmer: in a New Jersey for the tournament. Now, this is 366 00:19:55,170 --> 00:19:58,859 Sean Aylmer: according to New Zealand Rugby. They say that the designer 367 00:19:58,859 --> 00:20:01,049 Sean Aylmer: is known for his distinctive and creative use of the 368 00:20:01,049 --> 00:20:03,989 Sean Aylmer: color black. See, there's not a lot you can do with black, 369 00:20:03,990 --> 00:20:06,148 Sean Aylmer: but anyway. Well, actually, that's where I'm probably ignorant. You 370 00:20:06,150 --> 00:20:11,340 Sean Aylmer: can probably do a lot with the color of black. He's 371 00:20:11,340 --> 00:20:14,158 Sean Aylmer: worked with some current players in the Adidas Design Team 372 00:20:14,429 --> 00:20:17,099 Sean Aylmer: to create a jersey centered around the New Zealand Silver 373 00:20:17,099 --> 00:20:21,840 Sean Aylmer: Fern. Apparently, the New Jersey also has leading technical innovations 374 00:20:22,199 --> 00:20:26,070 Sean Aylmer: that aim to lift on- field performance and make players 375 00:20:26,070 --> 00:20:27,030 Sean Aylmer: difficult to tackle. 376 00:20:28,140 --> 00:20:31,590 Michael Thompson: A black so black that it absorbs all the light 377 00:20:31,590 --> 00:20:33,448 Michael Thompson: from around it, and it looks like the players are 378 00:20:33,450 --> 00:20:36,150 Michael Thompson: actually running through a black hole. That would make them 379 00:20:36,150 --> 00:20:36,900 Michael Thompson: difficult to tackle. 380 00:20:36,900 --> 00:20:39,210 Sean Aylmer: That would be good. That would be good. The World 381 00:20:39,210 --> 00:20:42,388 Sean Aylmer: Cup kicks off on September 8th in Paris, with New 382 00:20:42,388 --> 00:20:44,129 Sean Aylmer: Zealand playing France. 383 00:20:45,990 --> 00:20:47,070 Michael Thompson: It's been a show, Sean. 384 00:20:47,490 --> 00:20:50,428 Sean Aylmer: It has. That last one, just what we need. We 385 00:20:50,429 --> 00:20:54,840 Sean Aylmer: need the All Blacks to actually have some technological breakthrough 386 00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:58,140 Sean Aylmer: in their jerseys so that they're harder to tackle. 387 00:20:59,250 --> 00:21:01,738 Michael Thompson: That is a cracker of a story, and cracker of 388 00:21:01,740 --> 00:21:03,900 Michael Thompson: an interview coming up next. This is a really good one. 389 00:21:03,900 --> 00:21:07,530 Michael Thompson: You're speaking with Peter Gray, Larry Diamond, the co- founders 390 00:21:07,530 --> 00:21:08,520 Michael Thompson: of Zip Co. 391 00:21:08,609 --> 00:21:11,040 Sean Aylmer: Yep. They've just had their 10- year anniversary, which is 392 00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:14,490 Sean Aylmer: a pretty cool achievement in the buy- now- pay- later 393 00:21:14,580 --> 00:21:18,388 Sean Aylmer: area because it has been a very, very tough run. Very confident 394 00:21:18,388 --> 00:21:20,280 Sean Aylmer: about the outlook. Well worth a listen. 395 00:21:20,490 --> 00:21:22,350 Michael Thompson: It is. It really is. It's up next in the 396 00:21:22,350 --> 00:21:26,130 Michael Thompson: Fear & Greed playlist on your podcast platform, or at fearandgreed.com.au. 397 00:21:26,369 --> 00:21:27,750 Michael Thompson: And don't forget to have a listen as well to 398 00:21:27,750 --> 00:21:29,579 Michael Thompson: the latest episode of How Do They Afford That, which 399 00:21:29,580 --> 00:21:32,400 Michael Thompson: came out yesterday. This week's episode is all about pet 400 00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:34,170 Michael Thompson: insurance. Thank you very much, Sean. 401 00:21:34,410 --> 00:21:35,160 Sean Aylmer: Thank you, Michael. 402 00:21:35,459 --> 00:21:39,060 Michael Thompson: It's Thursday the 29th of June 2023. And join us 403 00:21:39,060 --> 00:21:42,840 Michael Thompson: on online on LinkedIn, Instagram, Twitter, and Facebook, and stay up to date on all the 404 00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:45,989 Michael Thompson: business news with Alexa and your Amazon Echo Smart Speaker. 405 00:21:46,020 --> 00:21:49,138 Michael Thompson: Simply say, " Alexa, play the Fear & Greed podcast," and the 406 00:21:49,138 --> 00:21:52,619 Michael Thompson: latest episode should just start playing. Grab yours now at amazon. com. 407 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:56,339 Michael Thompson: au. I'm Michael Thompson, and that was Fear & Greed. Have a great day.