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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fearing Greed, Q and A. Will we ask

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Speaker 1: and answer questions about business, investing, economics, politics and more.

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Speaker 1: I'm Sean Aylmer. There's painting of fear in markets right

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Speaker 1: now with big moves across both Wall Street and the AX.

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Speaker 1: So how do you block out the noise and find

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Speaker 1: the opportunities amid the uncertainty. This is general information only,

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Speaker 1: and you should seek professional advice tailored to your circumstances

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Speaker 1: before making investment decisions. Lachland Halloway is the equity market

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Speaker 1: strategist at Morning Star. Lachland, welcome back to Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for having back Sean.

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Speaker 1: First up, what do you make of the last few

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Speaker 1: weeks in markets? Pretty crazy?

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Speaker 2: I think that's fair, But I think it's also true

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Speaker 2: that equity markets in general are pretty crazy, pretty volatile.

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Speaker 2: That is just the nature of the beast. We need

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Speaker 2: to accept that. Volatility is the constant companion. It's the

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Speaker 2: price for a mission ticket to ride, So accept it.

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Speaker 2: We deal with acknowledge it. But you know, to get return,

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Speaker 2: you have to accept risk. So so that's how i'd

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Speaker 2: phrase it. Over the last couple of weeks.

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Speaker 1: Okay, you've published Morning Stars twenty twenty six global outlook

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Speaker 1: is that saying that volatility is going to this type

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Speaker 1: of volatility because there's more now than there has had

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Speaker 1: been earlier in the year, we'll continue into next year.

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Speaker 2: I think it's reasonable to expect that there will be

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Speaker 2: things that come out of the work next year. We

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Speaker 2: still have a lot of unresolved issues, of course, around

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Speaker 2: geo politics and the tariffs and Trump in general. I

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Speaker 2: think that's you know, of course, we've got monetary policy

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Speaker 2: questions all over the place too, with a federal Reserve

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Speaker 2: and also our RBA domestically, so you know, a lot

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Speaker 2: of that is still unresolved. I think we can expect,

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Speaker 2: you know, another year of risk an uncertainty in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty six. What we've said in our global outlook is

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Speaker 2: that investors should be preparing for that rather than trying

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Speaker 2: to predict it. That's the way we're approaching our global outlook.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so how do you see through the noise? I mean,

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Speaker 1: you mentioned a bunch of things. There's some noise, some

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Speaker 1: not the registrates isn't noise, I mean, that's it kind

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Speaker 1: of drives the economy. Trump Ism. There's certainly noise around

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Speaker 1: that how do you work out what is noise and

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Speaker 1: what's not well.

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Speaker 2: I think a nice way to think about sort of

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Speaker 2: bucking it up is to focus on the sort of

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Speaker 2: knowable and important things for your investments or your portfolio

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Speaker 2: of stocks. And we're talking about equities here, and I

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Speaker 2: think it's true that things like interest rates and tariffs

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Speaker 2: are certainly important. I think that the knowable side of

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Speaker 2: the equation, though, is a little bit more ambiguous, because

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Speaker 2: we're not at a very high level. The wins of

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Speaker 2: economics have a great deal of uncertainty in there. There

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Speaker 2: are a lot of people spend a lot of time

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Speaker 2: thinking about what the feed or the RB might do

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Speaker 2: on this particular meeting all the next and I don't

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Speaker 2: think as equity investors we're probably we're probably best off

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Speaker 2: spending a lot of time thinking about that and competing

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Speaker 2: on that sort of turf. I think we're better at doing,

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Speaker 2: and where we should spend our time is thinking about

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Speaker 2: the microeconomic of the companies that we look at their

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Speaker 2: competitive advantages, their moats, their capital allocation, the balance sheets.

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Speaker 2: Those sorts of things I think are where we should

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Speaker 2: be thinking about it. If there is a fundamental change

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Speaker 2: on that side of the equation rather than the big

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Speaker 2: broad stroke macroeconomic themes.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so we'll kind of we'll get to maybe a

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Speaker 1: couple of companies later on. Where we stand at the moment,

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Speaker 1: How should investors be thinking about positioning themselves. Are the

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Speaker 1: megacaps still what they were? Is it a mid cap market?

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Speaker 1: Is a small cap market? We didn't think that was

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Speaker 1: going to happen, but it sounds like, well, sorry, we

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Speaker 1: thought that was going to happen for the last three years,

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Speaker 1: but maybe it actually is happening. Now. Where do you

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Speaker 1: position yourself?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, A few things you know on that, I'd say, firstly,

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Speaker 2: in terms of very broad principles about positioning, I think

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Speaker 2: diversification is you can't have a state. How important that is,

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Speaker 2: particularly in a market that looks as concentrated as this one.

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Speaker 2: You know, last I checked, I think the ten largest

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Speaker 2: stocks in the US account for about thirty five percent

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Speaker 2: of the market capitalization of the totally U West market,

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Speaker 2: which is enormous and much larger than it was, you know,

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Speaker 2: even during dot Com, and investors rightly point at that

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Speaker 2: and say, well, is that is that a concern? You know,

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Speaker 2: it may be, we don't think the market, you know,

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Speaker 2: is necessarily mispricing AI stocks. We don't on to caution it.

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Speaker 2: We don't sort of see bubble territory yet. But nonetheless,

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Speaker 2: a lot of equity portfolios are coming very aliant on

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Speaker 2: one thing going right. And even if that is a

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Speaker 2: great basket to have all your eggs in, we don't

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Speaker 2: really know how it all plays out yet, so I'd

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Speaker 2: be cautious about, you know, over leveraging to one particular theme.

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Speaker 2: Looking outside the magnificent seven probably makes make some sense

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Speaker 2: just from a versification perspective, so we should think about that.

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Speaker 2: So that sort of ties in diversification being very important.

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Speaker 2: And also, you know, I think the thing about just

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Speaker 2: not having big one way bets on geopolitics or on

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Speaker 2: on investing themes like AI.

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Speaker 1: So with that in mind, you do need to be

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Speaker 1: interested in the big caps, but you also need to

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Speaker 1: be interested in others. So what about the mid cap

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Speaker 1: market at the moment.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, I think in Australia we're seeing that as

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Speaker 2: as probably better fodder for investors looking looking for value

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Speaker 2: the large caps in Australia, and I'm talking here austract.

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Speaker 2: You know that's probably were well folks, most about times.

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Speaker 2: Look that they're dominated, of course by the big banks

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Speaker 2: and two electric center, the miners. The banks. To us,

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Speaker 2: all the major banks look over valued A and Z.

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Speaker 2: For quite a while there had looked like reasonable value,

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Speaker 2: but now that's closed as it's caught up to its peers. CBA,

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Speaker 2: even after having sold off twenty percent from its recent peak,

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Speaker 2: still looks very expensive on a PE of twenty five

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Speaker 2: times and a price to book of almost four times,

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Speaker 2: which are not multiple's valuation multiples. Investors of historically been

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Speaker 2: willing to pay for banks, and we just don't necessarily

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Speaker 2: that they should either. So looking a bit further down

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Speaker 2: the size spectrum, I think makes a lot of sense.

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Speaker 2: We can still get a lot of quality businesses but

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Speaker 2: aren't overpriced banks or miners who you know do also

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Speaker 2: looking kind of reasonably value, but it's not a lot

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Speaker 2: of upside there. I think there are some sort of

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Speaker 2: structural risks that those minus face as well. So generally speaking,

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Speaker 2: outside the ASEX twenty, we think it's it's it's better

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Speaker 2: better hunting ground for investors at the moment.

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Speaker 1: So there's a lot of options there. So you know,

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Speaker 1: from twenty one to one hundred or are you thinking

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Speaker 1: one hundred to two hundred, and let's call those ones

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Speaker 1: the small caps. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Look, I think most opportunities we're seeing right now are

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Speaker 2: still in the small caps. So outside the ASEX one hundred,

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Speaker 2: that end of the market has had a fantastic year.

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Speaker 2: I think it's the return year to date small ordinaries.

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Speaker 2: It's something like twenty five percent there thereabouts. In the

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Speaker 2: ASEX two hundred to be about six percent, So it's

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Speaker 2: a massive outperformance immediately after a number of years of lagging.

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Speaker 2: You know, it's a huge performance. Golf opened up between

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Speaker 2: the small caps and large caps, you know in sort

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Speaker 2: of late twenty twenty one too, when concerns about higher

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Speaker 2: inflation and recession drove a lot of investors think away

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Speaker 2: from that end of the market on you know, safe

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Speaker 2: haven flight quality sort of style behavior. That's come back

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Speaker 2: in a big way this year, although I would carveout

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Speaker 2: that a lot of that is to do with materials,

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Speaker 2: you know, particular materials, the commodities that matter for that

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Speaker 2: end of the market, like gold and copper and lithium

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Speaker 2: and rare earts. But because of that, because it's been

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Speaker 2: mainly a commodity story for the small caps this year.

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Speaker 2: It actually means that a lot of the other non

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Speaker 2: commodities businesses they haven't seen those roaring share price gains,

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Speaker 2: and that's still offering pretty reasonable value for the most part.

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Speaker 1: Okay, with all that in mind, and diversification is king,

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Speaker 1: you know, keep thinking about meda caps, mid caps, and

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Speaker 1: small caps. There's a couple on the list that you've

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Speaker 1: put out in the last week or two which I

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Speaker 1: think are particularly interesting ones. Domino's Pizza. We hear so

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Speaker 1: much about it. It contrarian, lackland, contrarian backing, dominates.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, why do you like? Its ago wouldn't have been

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Speaker 2: putting out in the small cap bucket, right?

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Speaker 1: But how thick that's true?

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Speaker 2: And certainly is you know, at least in the way

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Speaker 2: it's priced by the market shadow of its former self. Look,

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Speaker 2: I mean there's a bit going on with Dominoes. I

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Speaker 2: think the biggest one weighing on at the moment is

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Speaker 2: the cyclicality, Like the macro is clearly hurting them right now.

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Speaker 2: We're still recovering from a very very tough period for retailers,

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Speaker 2: fast food retails, discretion retailer more broadly, with rate cuts

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Speaker 2: and high inflation, that's affecting our entire fast food quick

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Speaker 2: service restaurant coverage. You know Colin's Food example, the KFC

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Speaker 2: operator GUZMANI Gomez here, but also globally the QSR operators

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Speaker 2: are struggling. Dominoes is no exception to that. We think

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Speaker 2: that should improve over the next year, as you know,

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Speaker 2: we continue to see the effects of those rate cuts

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Speaker 2: and pulling back inflation. It should bode very well. And

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Speaker 2: on top of that, they've also got the sort of

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Speaker 2: moider syncratic challenges that they've created for themselves in a

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Speaker 2: way by over expanding, particularly during COVID, where they probably

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Speaker 2: misread the durability of you know, staying at home and

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Speaker 2: eating pizza. When that change, that expanded too broadly and

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Speaker 2: it became sprawling, their pricing strategy got sort of bungled,

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Speaker 2: and now they're raining that back in. But what you

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Speaker 2: have to assume today to get to the current share

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Speaker 2: price is basically no news stores normal margin expansion. We

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Speaker 2: think that's very pessimistic, and so the marginal safety for

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Speaker 2: us is absolutely there right now in Dominoes.

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Speaker 1: That means it's very much evaluation story, then, is that right?

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Speaker 2: I think that's right. Look it's basically a deep value

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Speaker 2: stock right now. Not much we think has to go

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Speaker 2: right in terms of just showing it there is still

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Speaker 2: growth there, they can get their margin back. Part of

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Speaker 2: that's can to be cyclical. Part of that's going to

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Speaker 2: be them actually doing the work when the pricing strategy

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Speaker 2: to try and rebuild consumer trust in their product. And

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Speaker 2: at the franchise e level, once a franchise a profitability

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Speaker 2: comes back, then you can start thinking about the rollout. Right,

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Speaker 2: you can't roll out stores if you can't encourage franchis

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Speaker 2: you know, open up a store for you. So those

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Speaker 2: few things have to go right for them. It's not

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Speaker 2: going to happen overnight, but that we think is a

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Speaker 2: credible pathway. They're back to growth for them, back to

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Speaker 2: margin expansion, and again at these prices, you really don't

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Speaker 2: have to believe much to make that bet work.

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Speaker 1: Another one and we are almost out of time, but

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Speaker 1: it's very quickly. ADP education a couple of years ago,

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Speaker 1: you couldn't get enough of it. Everyone loved IDP education

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Speaker 1: legislative changes, which really it fell out of bed. It's

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Speaker 1: share price has fallen out of bed. Why do you

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Speaker 1: like that one?

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Speaker 2: It looks similar story in somewhere so Domino as it

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Speaker 2: wasn't Darling that's now fallen from Grace. I think that

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Speaker 2: there's a very good structural story there with IDP around

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Speaker 2: the need for NETO sism migration, particularly you know, student

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Speaker 2: student visas to help support you know, Australia's tourism exports.

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Speaker 2: It's a big part of the economy in our big

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Speaker 2: part of our export balance, some sixty billion dollars a

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Speaker 2: year I think in Australia is spent on student related

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Speaker 2: expenditure here. So I don't think that's going to go away.

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Speaker 2: I don't think Australia should be looking to push that away.

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Speaker 2: There's obviously the political heat around it at the moment,

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Speaker 2: but I think, you know, if when we get this

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Speaker 2: housing issues sort of out, that seems like an obvious

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Speaker 2: place to be trying to help you drive growth in

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Speaker 2: Australias expert balance beyond the world of commodities. I think

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Speaker 2: that's a big part of the story, not just even

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Speaker 2: in their other markets too, like Canada. So again it's

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Speaker 2: a short term challenge absolutely around migration. We don't set

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Speaker 2: asisting forever. They're the highest quality operator in the space

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Speaker 2: and they should win when this turns around.

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Speaker 1: Lachlan, thank you for talking to Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for having me.

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Speaker 1: It was morning Start equity market strategist Lachlan Hallaway. Just

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Speaker 1: a reminder to seek professional advice before making investment decisions.

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Speaker 1: If you've got something you'd like to know, then send

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Speaker 1: through your questions on LinkedIn, Instagram, Facebook, Right, Fearinggreed dot

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Speaker 1: com dot A you. I'm Chanelma and this is Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed Q and Day