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Michael Thompson: Today on Fear and Greed, the federal government hands down

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Michael Thompson: a cost of living relief budget, with both eyes focused

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Michael Thompson: firmly on the upcoming federal poll. Queensland gets a new

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Michael Thompson: stadium for the twenty thirty two Olympic Games and a

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Michael Thompson: three point three billion dollar takeover offer in the gold sector,

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Michael Thompson: plus Qantas new cabins. And the Trump administration under fire

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Michael Thompson: for including a journalist in messages about a military strike.

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Michael Thompson: Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily business news for people

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Michael Thompson: who make their own decisions. It is Wednesday, the twenty

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Michael Thompson: sixth of March twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and

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Michael Thompson: good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Sean Aylmer: Good morning, Michael.

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Michael Thompson: Sean big day today. The main story this morning tiny

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Michael Thompson: tax cuts, a cost of living relief in energy and healthcare,

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Michael Thompson: and deficits for the next decade. We're all the centerpieces

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Michael Thompson: of last night's federal budget. But you've got to say,

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Michael Thompson: a budget short on reform. Yes, I think that's a

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Michael Thompson: fair characterization. I suppose it's not really that much of

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Michael Thompson: a surprise, given we've got an election in the next

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Michael Thompson: couple of months. How about we go through the winners first.

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Michael Thompson: The big announcement last night, which no one knew about.

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Michael Thompson: Tax cuts of five dollars a week from the middle

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Michael Thompson: of next year, another five dollars a week from a

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Michael Thompson: year later. That was the surprise announcement. The Medicare levy

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Michael Thompson: low income threshold was increased.

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Sean Aylmer: That means about a million low income household seniors and

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Sean Aylmer: pensioners will be exempt from the levee. Good for them.

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Sean Aylmer: One hundred and fifty dollars cut in energy bills in

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Sean Aylmer: the second half of this year. There was more money

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Sean Aylmer: for the Clean Energy Finance Corp. Another one we were

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Sean Aylmer: a bit surprised about. Non compete clauses in contracts affecting

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Sean Aylmer: up to three million workers will be banned for low

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Sean Aylmer: and middle income workers. That basically makes it easier for

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Sean Aylmer: people to join rival firms. The maximum price of prescriptions

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Sean Aylmer: will be reduced from thirty one dollars fifty to twenty

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Sean Aylmer: five bucks. Gps will receive higher incentive payments to bulk

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Sean Aylmer: bill patients. Hopefully that means you'll be able to see

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Sean Aylmer: a doctor for free. There was also money to reduce

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Sean Aylmer: adaptive surgery waiting times and for women's health. Outstanding university

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Sean Aylmer: student loan balances will be cut by twenty percent this year.

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Sean Aylmer: That needs legislation to pass that one, and the help

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Sean Aylmer: to Buy scheme for first time buyers will be expanded.

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Sean Aylmer: Plus there's money for apprentices and a national licensing scheme

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Sean Aylmer: for electricians. They're the winners, Michael.

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Michael Thompson: It's a pretty solid list of winners. But as you say,

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Michael Thompson: a lot of them we did know about in advance.

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Michael Thompson: That the big surprise really being those tax cuts. The losers, Sean,

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Michael Thompson: if that's fair to say those who did not win

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Michael Thompson: as much.

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Sean Aylmer: Yes, Look, I don't think there were too many losers

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Sean Aylmer: because the government didn't do anything to try and repair

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Sean Aylmer: the budget deficit. It was very happy to have big

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Sean Aylmer: deficits twenty seven billion or thereabouts this financial year for

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Sean Aylmer: many years to come. The losers in a sense with

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Sean Aylmer: the usual crowd. So the ATA will get another nine

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Sean Aylmer: hundred and ninety nine million dollars over five years to

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Sean Aylmer: extend and expand its crackdown on deistic and multinational tax avoidance.

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Sean Aylmer: I don't know how much money the ATA has gotten

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Sean Aylmer: for that over the last ten years, but it just

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Sean Aylmer: seems to be the perennial consultants such as PwC, KPMG, Deloitte,

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Sean Aylmer: and Ewy will continue to have their access to government

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Sean Aylmer: work constrained. The government will bolster efforts to rain in

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Sean Aylmer: the balloooning costs of fraud in the National Disability Insurance Scheme.

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Sean Aylmer: But really there just weren't a lot of losers out there,

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Sean Aylmer: which again perhaps not a surprise given an election year. Yeah.

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Michael Thompson: Indeed, now what about the economic outlook from the government,

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Michael Thompson: Because there's obviously so much data in all of this,

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Michael Thompson: what did it tell us about the economy?

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Sean Aylmer: So Jim Chalmers last night said that the economy has

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Sean Aylmer: turned a corner. The budget will head into deficit. Now

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Sean Aylmer: we've had two years of surpluses. The deficit for this

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Sean Aylmer: financially use twenty seven point six billion dollars. It'll go

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Sean Aylmer: to forty two point one billion dollars next financial year.

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Sean Aylmer: The outlook for economic growth is modest but better than expected.

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Sean Aylmer: So growth is expected to lift from about one and

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Sean Aylmer: a half percent to two and a quarter percent next

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Sean Aylmer: financial year. Infations, falling faster than previously forecasted, should remain

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Sean Aylmer: within the Reserve Banks target band of two to three percent.

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Sean Aylmer: Hopefully that'll convince the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates.

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Sean Aylmer: We'll see in the budget papers it suggests that there

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Sean Aylmer: will be a couple of rate cuts this year, though

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Sean Aylmer: that's not to say that's going to happen. That's just

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Sean Aylmer: Treasuries forecast the title tax intake will hit six hundred

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Sean Aylmer: and sixty three billion dollars this financial year six to

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Sean Aylmer: ninety four billion dollars next financial year. Income tax brings

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Sean Aylmer: in the most money for the government. A little aside,

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Sean Aylmer: tobacco excise revenue has collapsed another fifteen percent. It's because

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Sean Aylmer: all these people are buying illegal tobacco at the moment.

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Sean Aylmer: Real wages are forecast will grow by half percent, so

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Sean Aylmer: that's your actual wage increase minus inflation. Real wages increase

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Sean Aylmer: this year and increase next year. Unemployment remains near record

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Sean Aylmer: lows and is expected to kind of stay fairly low

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Sean Aylmer: for the foreseeable future.

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Michael Thompson: After the show, speaking of all of the economic less

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Michael Thompson: that we can learn from the budget, we've got our

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Michael Thompson: usual interview with economist Stephen Couldculus. Basically at the in

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Michael Thompson: depth budget analysis. That will really set you up for

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Michael Thompson: the rest of the week, the rest of the year.

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Michael Thompson: I think so well, said, did I overseell that just then?

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Michael Thompson: I know at all everything entirely next year?

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Sean Aylmer: On the economy.

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Michael Thompson: Now, look, you Sean have been around for a while,

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Michael Thompson: You've seen a lot of budgets. It's also quite unusual

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Michael Thompson: in a three year term to have a government hand

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Michael Thompson: down a fourth budget within that term. What's the bottom

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Michael Thompson: line from all.

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Sean Aylmer: Of this, Well, look, budget's probably best judged by what's

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Sean Aylmer: not there. Budgets are supposed to be reform documents. They're

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Sean Aylmer: actually supposed to look at the you know, the financial

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Sean Aylmer: accounts of the country and work out you and I

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Sean Aylmer: if we find that we're spending too much money, we

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Sean Aylmer: might cut a streaming service subscription, for example, or we

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Sean Aylmer: might reduce her grocery bills. That sort of thing hasn't happen.

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Sean Aylmer: And this year there's no reform in this budget. Certainly

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Sean Aylmer: no tax reform or if it's to fix the budget deficit.

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Sean Aylmer: There's nothing to boost productivity in the economy. Now, maybe

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Sean Aylmer: around electricians there is, but really of the non compete clause,

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Sean Aylmer: maybe you could argue that, but really productivity is a

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Sean Aylmer: big issue for this economy. Nothing to address that. Nothing

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Sean Aylmer: on handling the US in the new age. Donald Trump

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Sean Aylmer: was kind of like poisoned last night, at least in

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Sean Aylmer: the words used, I want, wanted, to talk about Donald

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Sean Aylmer: Trump little new on pushing the energy transition was very

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Sean Aylmer: much a don't rock the boat headed the election budget.

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Sean Aylmer: In fact, let's forget this budget and get on with

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Sean Aylmer: the election campaign. I'd got it a ho hum budget

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Sean Aylmer: as a result of that. It's a budget the government

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Sean Aylmer: didn't want to have. It's out of the way now

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Sean Aylmer: now we can think about the election. Michael.

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Michael Thompson: Yeah, definitely an election budget of sorts. And my favorite

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Michael Thompson: line was delivered by the Treasurer Jim Chalmers last night

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Michael Thompson: after his address to Parliament, where he said it's being

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Michael Thompson: delivered on the eve of an election. It's driven by economics,

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Michael Thompson: not politics. And I just don't know whether anyone believes that.

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Sean Aylmer: No, I mean, it's no why I even't say it.

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Michael Thompson: It's worth a try though, isn't it anyway? Sean plenty

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Michael Thompson: in all of that, and we've got the interview coming

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Michael Thompson: up with Stephen Coulculis after the show, But there is

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Michael Thompson: plenty of other stories that we'd still need to cover

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Michael Thompson: well back in a moment with the rest of the

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Michael Thompson: day's business news, Sean. The main venue for the Brisbane

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Michael Thompson: twenty thirty two Olympic and Paralympic Games will be built

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Michael Thompson: in the cities Inner North at Victoria Park. Now this

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Michael Thompson: is overturning promises not to build a new stadium for

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Michael Thompson: the Games.

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Sean Aylmer: The decision to build the sixty thousand seat stadium in

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Sean Aylmer: current green space comes more than three and a half

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Sean Aylmer: years after the city was awarded hosting rights and after

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Sean Aylmer: two independent reviews. Now two former Layman premiers and A

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Sean Aylmer: Station Palaje and Steven Miles had committed to not building

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Sean Aylmer: this stadium. Effectively, Brisbane Cricket Ground was going to get it. However,

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Sean Aylmer: current Premier David chris A fully has adopted a recommendation

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Sean Aylmer: from the independent Infrastructure in Coordination Authority build a new

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Sean Aylmer: stadium about three point seven billion dollars. You could imagine

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Sean Aylmer: the political fallout from this one. Mind you, we live

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Sean Aylmer: in a city that had an Olympic stadium built quite

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Sean Aylmer: a few years ago. There was a lot of criticism

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Sean Aylmer: about it. One of the best things that ever happened

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Sean Aylmer: to Sydney.

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Michael Thompson: Got to say, though, would have been quite spectacular for

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Michael Thompson: the Gabba to be the centerpiece.

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Sean Aylmer: Right, it would have been. It would have been.

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Michael Thompson: That's true anyway, a lot of money still a lot

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Michael Thompson: of money, Sean Michael, You know how I love companies

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Michael Thompson: that tell you exactly what they do just in their name.

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Sean Aylmer: Yes, yes, yes.

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Michael Thompson: This next story involves two separate companies and both of

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Michael Thompson: them just tell you to straight up right ASX listed

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Michael Thompson: gold Road Resources. Do you want to guess what they do?

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Michael Thompson: It's probably something, probably something to do with gold Right

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Michael Thompson: has rejected a three point three billion dollar takeover bid

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Michael Thompson: from South African based gold Fields. Wow, no mystery there,

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Michael Thompson: saying the offer is too low and Shawn extremely hostile.

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Sean Aylmer: The only problem with these names is that so similar

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Sean Aylmer: it gets a bit confusing. Good point, gold Fields wants

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Sean Aylmer: to buy gold Road to take full control over their

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Sean Aylmer: gray Year gold mine joint venture in Western Australia. It's

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Sean Aylmer: about a thousand kilometers northeast of Perth. That one. Gold

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Sean Aylmer: Road has said no and wants to buy gold Fields

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Sean Aylmer: out of that jv. Starting to get confusing already, gold

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Sean Aylmer: Road CEO Duncan Gibbs said, it's very surprising that gold Fields,

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Sean Aylmer: the South African group has gone down a hostile path.

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Sean Aylmer: Point is they're in a joint venture together. There's past

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Sean Aylmer: to be friends. They're not taking each other over. Now.

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Sean Aylmer: This is all happening as Northern Star, which is the

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Sean Aylmer: largest local gold miner, bids five billion dollars for de

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Sean Aylmer: Gray mining, another gold miner. What gets a bit complicating

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Sean Aylmer: here though, gold Road. The ASEX company owns seventeen percent

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Sean Aylmer: of Degray, So if gold Fields buys gold Road, what's

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Sean Aylmer: that means for Northern Stars bid for de Gray? So confusing?

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Sean Aylmer: Gold prices arebout fifteen percent this year to record levels.

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Sean Aylmer: Gold Rose share price jumped sixteen percent yesterday.

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Michael Thompson: I take back everything I said, I reckon that is

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Michael Thompson: probably up there as the most confusing story we have

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Michael Thompson: done this year, just purely because of the names.

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Sean Aylmer: Only other names, Yeah, Sewan.

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Michael Thompson: Whether or not the Trump administration classifies the ten percent

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Michael Thompson: GST the Goods and Services taxes a trade barrier will

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Michael Thompson: be a decisive factor in whether Australia wins an exemption

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Michael Thompson: from reciprocal tariffs next week.

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Sean Aylmer: The US President Donald Trump says his tariff roll out

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Sean Aylmer: next week will focus on so called reciprocal duties, whereby

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Sean Aylmer: countries are hit with individually tailored taxes that reflect the

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Sean Aylmer: tariffs and other trade barriers placed on American products. While

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Sean Aylmer: the President said that his nation was and I quote

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Sean Aylmer: ripped off by every country quote he did signal some

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Sean Aylmer: trading partners will receive exemptions and reductions. Trump flagged that

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Sean Aylmer: tariffs on industries such as automobiles and pharmaceuticals would come

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Sean Aylmer: at a later date. Now, that puts one point six

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Sean Aylmer: billion dollars of annual pharmaceutical experts from Australia to the

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Sean Aylmer: US by groups like CSL in the firing line, certainly.

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Sean Aylmer: But the number of this story is is the GST

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Sean Aylmer: going to be classified as a trade barrier in Donald

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Sean Aylmer: Trump's size?

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Michael Thompson: I mean it applies to as many Australian goods as

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Michael Thompson: it does too imported goods or goods made elsewhere, So

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Michael Thompson: is it would it be a trade barrier?

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Sean Aylmer: You can make the argument to Donald Trump, Michael, there's

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Sean Aylmer: nothing rational about what's going on at the moment.

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Michael Thompson: That's a very good point. Now, the comments from Donald

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Michael Thompson: Trump on tariff's certainly helped Wall Street rally, which in turn,

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Michael Thompson: Jean pushed the local market hire yesterday as well.

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Sean Aylmer: It sure did. The SMPA six two hundred closed up

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Sean Aylmer: just as two seven, nine hundred and forty three points.

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Sean Aylmer: The tech stocks and healthcare companies were among the best performers,

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Sean Aylmer: while the banks were mixed. James Hardy's Industries finished down

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Sean Aylmer: another five percent after it's fifteen percent drop on Monday.

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Sean Aylmer: Investors are punishing that stock on fears that it's fourteen

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Sean Aylmer: billion dollar offer the US building materials company Azek is

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Sean Aylmer: too high. Another interesting one yesterday, MPOL said that the

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Sean Aylmer: cost of ex tropical cyclone Alfred on its facilities will

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Sean Aylmer: be about thirty five million dollars, quite the repair bill.

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Michael Thompson: Indeed, Sean Quantis has revealed a bunch of new features

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Michael Thompson: on it soon to arrive Airbus A three to twenty

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Michael Thompson: one XLR planes, including extra toilets and a whole lot

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Michael Thompson: more overhead storage space.

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Sean Aylmer: The aircraft are in the final stages of production at

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Sean Aylmer: the Airbus factory in Hamburg. The airline has twenty one

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Sean Aylmer: A three twenty one planes, so I'll say that again.

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Sean Aylmer: The airline has twenty eight A three twenty one planes

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Sean Aylmer: on order, with the first tour rift by June seven,

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Sean Aylmer: to be flying by the end of next year. Alongside

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Sean Aylmer: quantuses existing Bowing seven three seven eight hundreds, these planes

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Sean Aylmer: have capacity for one hundred and ninety seven passengers, twenty

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Sean Aylmer: three more than the seven three sevens. Very exciting years.

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Sean Aylmer: Quantus will add an extra loop on the XLR. That

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Sean Aylmer: means four in total, three for economy, one for business class.

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Sean Aylmer: According to reporting The Australian also super sized overhead compartments.

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Sean Aylmer: Now there is a lot of stress getting on a

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Sean Aylmer: plane when you're late because you can never find somewhere

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Sean Aylmer: to put your carry on. So hopefully that'll be taken

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Sean Aylmer: care of.

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Michael Thompson: Sewn. That feels like it applies more to you than

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Michael Thompson: it would to me. I am usually you'd always be

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Michael Thompson: on time, the first to board, a very paranoid waiting

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Michael Thompson: at the gate.

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Sean Aylmer: Yeah. Well, these xlrs are able to fly three thousand

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Sean Aylmer: kilometers further than the seven to three sevens thanks to

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Sean Aylmer: a central re fuel tank, plus lower emissions and lower

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Sean Aylmer: fuel burn. Quantus plans to use the aircraft on domestic

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Sean Aylmer: services and international flights, did destinations such as Balley, New

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Sean Aylmer: Zealand and maybe even Malaysia.

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Michael Thompson: I'm going to put this out there into the universe,

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Michael Thompson: sewn in the hope that one day it does in

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Michael Thompson: fact happen. I think one of the greatest media junkets

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Michael Thompson: of all time is when Quantas, for instance, flies journalists

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Michael Thompson: to say Hamburg to inspect these aircraft in the final

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Michael Thompson: stages of production. One day. Fear and greed included in

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Michael Thompson: that media junket, and we will record fear and greed

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Michael Thompson: from on board one of the Airbus A three twenty

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Michael Thompson: ones or similar aircraft were not particularly picky, but God,

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Michael Thompson: that would be a dream come true.

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Sean Aylmer: That is shameful, Michael, it's shameful.

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Michael Thompson: I'm comfortable with that. Turning to international news, Sean, this

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Michael Thompson: is an extraordinary story. Top US officials, including the Vice

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Michael Thompson: president and Defense Secretary, accidentally shared classified details about last

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Michael Thompson: week's military strikes on Yemen with a journalist in an

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Michael Thompson: unofficial messaging group.

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Sean Aylmer: Pretty stunning, incredible. So, Vice President Jade Vance and Peter

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Sean Aylmer: Hexeth were among the members of a signal chat group

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Sean Aylmer: that discussed operational details of the most significant military action

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Sean Aylmer: taken by President Donald Trump since he returned to the

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Sean Aylmer: White House. The conversation not only did it talk about

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Sean Aylmer: that military action on Yemen, it also blasted European allies,

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Sean Aylmer: said they were free loading off the US. Problem was

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Sean Aylmer: one of the members of this chat group was a

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Sean Aylmer: guy called Jeffrey Goldberg, editor in chief of the Atlantic magazine.

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Sean Aylmer: Now apparently he was added to the chat by National

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Sean Aylmer: Security Advisor Mike Watz An account of the messages, which

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Sean Aylmer: expressed disdain for European allies and suggested asking them to

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Sean Aylmer: pay for the Yemen operation, was published by the Atlantic

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Sean Aylmer: on Monday. According to Goldberg, Vance suggested the threat from

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Sean Aylmer: the Huthis was more of a European issue. It's only

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Sean Aylmer: a small fraction of US trade ran through the Suez Canal.

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Sean Aylmer: Jd Vance express concern that the US attack was a

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Sean Aylmer: mistake that risk a spike in oil prices while bailing

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Sean Aylmer: Europe out. A number of members of the group suggested

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Sean Aylmer: Europe could be asked to compensate the US for the strikes.

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Sean Aylmer: The fact that a journalist was part of this conversation

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Sean Aylmer: is quite stunning.

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Michael Thompson: Yeah, Sean, it is an incredible story that one. There's

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Michael Thompson: a bit going on in global markets, with Wall Street

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Michael Thompson: rising overnight on the back of hopes that Donald Trump's

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Michael Thompson: tariffs won't be as ferocious as first feared.

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Sean Aylmer: That helped text stocks, particularly ev maker Tesla. We've been

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Sean Aylmer: talking about how much that's been sold off. Well at

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Sean Aylmer: jumped twelve percent yesterday morning. Iron Or is also up,

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Sean Aylmer: retaking one hundred and two US dollars a ton. Copper

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Sean Aylmer: pushed above ten thousand US dollars a ton. It's close

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Sean Aylmer: from all time high bitcoin eighty six, five hundred US

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Sean Aylmer: dolls a unit. I said, oh I look, I'd love

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Sean Aylmer: to say that's back in. You know, that is in

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Sean Aylmer: that crowd appreciating it's not worth just under sixty three

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Sean Aylmer: US cents.

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Michael Thompson: What a note to finish on. Up next is the

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Michael Thompson: Fear and Greed Daily Interview with our resident economist Stephen

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Michael Thompson: Koukoulas Fear and Greed's budget analysis. Definitely the listeners coming

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Michael Thompson: up in the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast

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Michael Thompson: platform or at Fearangreed dot com dot au, which is

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Michael Thompson: where you sign up for our newsletter which comes out

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Michael Thompson: in just a few hours time. So make sure you

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Michael Thompson: jump onto that one right away. Thank you very much, Sean.

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Sean Aylmer: Thank you, Michael.

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Michael Thompson: It is Wednesday, the twenty sixth of March twenty twenty five.

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Michael Thompson: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Michael Thompson: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael

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Michael Thompson: Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.