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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed, Donald Trump says the USA

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Speaker 1: will take over the Gaza Strip, new federal money for

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Speaker 1: public hospitals as Canberra bands bureaucrats from using deepseek ai

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Speaker 1: and a boom year for the Future Fund, plus the

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Speaker 1: local share market jumps and Alphabet's massive spending on data centers.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily business news for people

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Speaker 1: who make their own decisions. It is Thursday, the sixth

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Speaker 1: of February twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning,

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Speaker 1: Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning, Donald Trump says that the

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Speaker 1: US will take over the Gaza Strip and redevelop it

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Speaker 1: into a booming Middle East jobs hub, suggesting the territory

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Speaker 1: could become the Riviera of the Middle East.

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Speaker 2: He just keeps giving, doesn't he, Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: He's lucky to goodness with the headlines that this man

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Speaker 1: creates is quite extraordinary.

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Speaker 2: It sure is, look Donald Trump warned, though, for this

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Speaker 2: to work, Palestinian people would need to be relocated to

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Speaker 2: other countries. Unveiling the blueprint alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin

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Speaker 2: Netanyahoo at the White House and of course, this comes

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Speaker 2: amid very very fragile ceasefire agreement, a very fragile ceasefire

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Speaker 2: agreement between the Jewish Homeland and to mass following sixteen

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Speaker 2: months of war. Mister Trump said he's prepared to use

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Speaker 2: US troops to realize his vision if it proves necessary.

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Speaker 2: He said there's a need to do something different in

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Speaker 2: order to break the cycle of violence and deliver peace

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Speaker 2: to the Middle East, arguing that the world's people could

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Speaker 2: live in the small territory overlooking the Mediterranean once the

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Speaker 2: project was completed, as in World's People, all people could

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Speaker 2: live there. I think at least that's what he meant.

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Speaker 2: Mister Trump said Gaza should not go through a process

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Speaker 2: of rebuilding and occupation by the same people that had

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Speaker 2: really stood there and fought for it, and lived there,

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Speaker 2: and died there and lived a miserable existence there. He

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Speaker 2: said the policy could be paid for by neighboring countries

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Speaker 2: of great wealth, and that Palestinians could be relocated to

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Speaker 2: other numerous sites or simply one large site. Mister Trump

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Speaker 2: signaled his intention to send US troops if it's necessary

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Speaker 2: to take control of the Gaza strip and clarified that

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Speaker 2: he saw a long term ownership position for America over

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Speaker 2: the territory.

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Speaker 1: The sending of US troops there would be a significant step,

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Speaker 1: and any kind of American ownership over the territories another

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Speaker 1: another major This is very, very different to everything that's

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Speaker 1: been kind of pursued in the past. Can it actually

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Speaker 1: be done? Can he do it?

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Speaker 2: There are certainly a lot of legal issues to do it.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you can't just go and take over a land,

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Speaker 2: so there's these legal and sovereignty issues. So probably not.

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Speaker 2: I mean, of course there's a bunch of people living

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Speaker 2: there as well, and I don't think you can force

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Speaker 2: remove them. They may want to live there. The surrounding

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Speaker 2: states who Donald Trump says can take the Palestinians, well

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Speaker 2: some of those have already come out and said they

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Speaker 2: don't want to take Palestinians. There's no sign that the

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Speaker 2: Palestinians want to go to those states. Even Benjamin nettan

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Speaker 2: Yahoo who is next to Donald Trump, called it at

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Speaker 2: the extreme end of a solution for the region. Now.

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Speaker 2: Our own Prime Minister, Anthony Alberanezi said Australia he really

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Speaker 2: tried to avoid it. Yesterday. He said Australia would be consistent.

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Speaker 2: When asked whether his government would speak out against violations

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Speaker 2: of international law, he didn't. He kind of fell short

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Speaker 2: of saying whether a US occupation of a Gaza strip

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Speaker 2: would amount to such a violation. He basically avoided the

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Speaker 2: question all day. Wouldn't say whether Australia would support a

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Speaker 2: US takeover of the Gaza strip. I wouldn't talk about

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Speaker 2: whether we'd send troops or anything like that. I think

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Speaker 2: the short answer is that Donald Trump can't do it.

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Speaker 2: I'm not even sure Israel wants him to do it,

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Speaker 2: but certainly in extraordinary twenty four hours in geopolitics.

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Speaker 1: And it would just be it would be a seismic

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Speaker 1: shift for the Middle East, and it would essentially do

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Speaker 1: away with the two state solution really because the Gaza

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Speaker 1: Gaza and the West Bank are the two kind of

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Speaker 1: central kind of pillars of that and essentially removing Gaza

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Speaker 1: from the equation, which and the two state solution is

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Speaker 1: something that the US has supported previously, the UK is

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Speaker 1: supported previously, Australia, Canada, Europe everywhere basically has supported this.

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Speaker 1: Egypt hugely influential in the Middle East. This would be

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Speaker 1: such a seismic shift for the Middle East, And I mean,

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Speaker 1: it does feel as though this is just something that

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Speaker 1: is going to create an awful lot of discussion over

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Speaker 1: the next few days, but may not actually eventuate into

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Speaker 1: anything meaningful because there are too many questions and too

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Speaker 1: many kind of issues attached to it.

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Speaker 2: I think that's right. I think that's right. It's interesting

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Speaker 2: what Donald Trump is doing to the office of the

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Speaker 2: president because what you've just said, then, Michael, if any

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Speaker 2: other president in the US had said what was said,

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Speaker 2: we think this is serious Donald Trump, we think no,

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Speaker 2: it's just a posturing position. And I do find it

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Speaker 2: interesting how I mean, Devalue is probably being unkind to

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump, but certainly we think about the office of

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Speaker 2: the presidency a lot different now to what we ever

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Speaker 2: have before.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and it feels, unfortunately like a brainstorming session. It's

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Speaker 1: the kind of discussion that might take place behind doors

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Speaker 1: in other administrations, and now it is it is happening

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Speaker 1: out in the out in the open. So yeah, anyway,

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Speaker 1: the uncertainty continues. Then, Sean, let's move on to markets, now,

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Speaker 1: local markets. How did things go yesterday?

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Speaker 2: It was a pretty good day for the S and P.

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Speaker 2: A six two hundred finished up half per cent to

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Speaker 2: eighty four hundred and seventeen points. Remember, on Monday it

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Speaker 2: lost too percent. On Tuesday it went up and then

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Speaker 2: fell again, ended up flat. Yesterday was up a bit,

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Speaker 2: so for the week, we're still behind. The big miners

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Speaker 2: led the way yesterday fores Kew Metals Group and Rio

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Speaker 2: We're both up more than two percent. BHP was up

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Speaker 2: one and a half percent. The tech stocks and the

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Speaker 2: energy companies also did well, so Woodside rose nearly two percent,

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Speaker 2: ProMedica zero, Aria Wise tech they were all up more

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Speaker 2: than one and a half percent. Healthcare underperformed, says Hell

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Speaker 2: was down more than one percent. Mcquarie Bank was also

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Speaker 2: off quite a bit, just very quickly. In corporate NEWSZM

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Speaker 2: Course share price jumped after Earning's met expectations in the

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Speaker 2: December quarter, and clean Away Waste Management share price fell

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Speaker 2: after it was forced to close its liquid waste processing

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Speaker 2: facility in Western Sydney after a significant fire hit the premises.

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Speaker 1: And what's happening in international markets chaos? Can I say

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Speaker 1: that it just let it gus it's just a one

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Speaker 1: word summary. Can it give us a little bit more detail?

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Speaker 1: Show well oil's up.

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Speaker 2: Oils fetching about seventy six US dollars a barrel goals up.

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Speaker 2: Great place to boo when you know what's going on.

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Speaker 2: That's trading twenty eight to fifty eight US dollars and

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Speaker 2: now it's the Aussi dollar has risen a bit sixty

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Speaker 2: two point five US since, but really on a long

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Speaker 2: term trend, the Aussie dollar is still very, very weak.

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Speaker 2: The long term trend is close to somewhere between seventy

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Speaker 2: and seventy two cents for the Aussie dollar. At the

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Speaker 2: sixty two cents level it is, it's very cheap, and

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Speaker 2: bitcoin is back below one hundred thousand US dollars a unit.

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Speaker 1: Sean after the show, you have an interview coming up

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Speaker 1: today with would have to be one of the well

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Speaker 1: most well known and well respected business people in Australia.

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Speaker 1: You're speaking with Nicholas Moore, who is the former boss

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Speaker 1: of Macquarie and now Australia's Special Envoy to Southeast Asia.

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Speaker 2: All about investing in Southeast Asia for businesses and both

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Speaker 2: large and small. Southeast Asia is so close to us

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Speaker 2: and it's such a close neighbor. It has been underdeveloped,

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Speaker 2: but Nicholas Moore talks about how it is developing and

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Speaker 2: the opportunities there some of those countries are massive. In Indonesia,

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Speaker 2: I think it's the fifth most populous country in the

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Speaker 2: world and it's on our doorstep. There is so much

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Speaker 2: opportunity for Australia and we talked to Nick All about that.

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Speaker 1: And it's not just about the big companies. There are

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Speaker 1: exactly opportunities for smaller businesses as well, which he speaks about.

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Speaker 1: So it is a great conversation for everyone to listen to.

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Speaker 1: It's coming up after the show. So much more still

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Speaker 1: to come though, Sean, we're talking about the deep seek

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Speaker 1: ban in Canberra, the Future Funds bump, a year Astray,

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Speaker 1: an intriguing story, an interesting one out of the US

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Speaker 1: Postal Service. Stick around for that one. We'll be back

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Speaker 1: in a moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sean.

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Speaker 1: Chinese AI chatbot deep Seek has been banned from federal

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Speaker 1: government devices after security agencies warned of an unacceptable risk

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Speaker 1: to Australian government technology. Very quick to act on this one,

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Speaker 1: deep Seak was only released late last month and a

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Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago, and it quickly became the number

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Speaker 1: one downloaded free app on Apple's app Store. We've talked

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Speaker 1: a lot about deep Seek over the last week or so.

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Speaker 1: The Chinese company claimed to have developed the app very quickly,

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Speaker 1: very cheaply, which many saw obviously as a threat to

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Speaker 1: US dominance in the space, and that caused a massive

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Speaker 1: fall what was it about a trillion dollars Yeah, in

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Speaker 1: chip Maker and Video's market cap in just one day.

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Speaker 1: The ban now means that all government bodies except for

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Speaker 1: Australia Post and the ABC, that the corporate entities have

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Speaker 1: to remove deep Seak from their devices immediately. Though a

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Speaker 1: little bit of positivity, employees can keep using them on

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Speaker 1: their own devices if they wish.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I heard Tony Burke, the Home Affairs Minister, talking

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Speaker 2: about it, and he was saying that the government was

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Speaker 2: country agnostic on this kind decision because the government's already

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Speaker 2: been Chinese owned TikTok from government devices. Now I've got

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Speaker 2: Chinese owned deep Seak. Mister Burke is a country agnostic.

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Speaker 2: We can have only take him at face failure.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm sure country agnostic. When the decision was made

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Speaker 1: about Huawei as well, exactly a couple of years ago.

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Speaker 1: Staying in Canberra, sean a more positive story. This one.

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Speaker 1: The Prime Minister has announced one point seven billion dollars

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Speaker 1: in additional funding to public hospitals next year.

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Speaker 2: Yes, he said it should help cut waiting lists, reduce

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Speaker 2: waiting times in emergency rooms, and manage ramping across the

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Speaker 2: states and territories. He said, it matters to people and

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Speaker 2: I quote this decision today will help save lives and

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Speaker 2: lead to better outcomes for our nation's hospitals. It's part

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Speaker 2: of a new agreement between the federal, state and territory

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Speaker 2: governments where the comwealth contribution to public hospital increases by

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Speaker 2: twelve percent.

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Speaker 1: And Anthony Abernezi also spoke to Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski

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Speaker 1: and raised the welfare of Australian Oscar Jenkins, who is

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Speaker 1: currently a prisoner of war in Russia.

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Speaker 2: That's right, we're almost at the three year mark since

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Speaker 2: Russia invaded Ukraine. The two spoke about Australia's ongoing support

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Speaker 2: for Ukraine as well as the fate of mister Jenkins.

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Speaker 2: Now Australia provides military equipment and other assistants. Apparently, mister

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Speaker 2: mister Zelenski expressed his gratitude for Australia's support, both material

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Speaker 2: and otherwise, how.

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Speaker 1: About the Future Fund? Sean, The Australia's sovereign fund returned

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Speaker 1: twelve point two percent last year thanks to a surge

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Speaker 1: in global share market.

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Speaker 2: It's a pretty good result. It's about the same as

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Speaker 2: the median balanced super Fund. I think it's a bit

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Speaker 2: better than that. It's probably the best comparison. Global equities

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Speaker 2: swored after Donald Trump's win in the poll last November.

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Speaker 2: Future Fund was pretty much along for the ride. The CEO,

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Speaker 2: Raphael Aunt said the Sovereign Wealth Fund had shifted capital

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Speaker 2: from it's cash reserves, private equiting, property holdings to top

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Speaker 2: up its global shares as concerns that the US Federal

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Speaker 2: reserve interest rate settings would induce a recession abated, so

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Speaker 2: became more confident about the economy, went into the higher

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Speaker 2: risk assets such as equities, and it's paid off for them.

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Speaker 2: When asked about US technology stocks and the Magnificent Seven,

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Speaker 2: we've been talking about them for a couple of years

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Speaker 2: and probably will just because they have such dominant players

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Speaker 2: on Wall Street, Doctor Aunt said that their earnings have

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Speaker 2: grown quite strongly. He said, we don't have a strong

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Speaker 2: position on that, but we do think it's wise to

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Speaker 2: avoid expensive stocks. So if you read between the lines,

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Speaker 2: and I'm reading between the lines, he didn't say it,

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Speaker 2: it does sound like he's not a huge fan of

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Speaker 2: the Magnificent Seven. The Future Fund's assets hit a record

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Speaker 2: two hundred and thirty seven point nine billion dollars at

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Speaker 2: the end of December.

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Speaker 1: That's a lot of money. Yeah, so I lot insightful

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Speaker 1: commentary there from Michael Thompson, sean rescuing me here. Brookfield

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Speaker 1: Capital Partners has joined the bidding war for Insignia. This

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Speaker 1: has been going on for a while. That just keeps

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Speaker 1: on going, matching the three point one billion dollar offer

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Speaker 1: in the market from private equity rivals Bay Capital and

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Speaker 1: CC Capital.

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Speaker 2: Dan, you love it, good old fashioned take out a stout.

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Speaker 1: Oh it is. It's a barney. It's a three way.

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Speaker 2: It's a barney.

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Speaker 3: It's a Brookfield's been four dollars sixty share. The difference

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Speaker 3: in its bid is allowed some Insignia shareholders to stay

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Speaker 3: invested in the business by accepting equity in book Field's

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Speaker 3: unlisted vehicle if it strikes a deal, whereas Bain and

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Speaker 3: CC Capital they don't get that opportunity.

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Speaker 2: Now. CC Capital's Wall Street firm relatively unknown in Australia

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Speaker 2: Bane we all know about it brought version Australian off administrators.

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Speaker 2: They've already upped their original two point seven billion offers

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Speaker 2: to three point one billion, which is what Brookfield's offering.

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Speaker 2: Insignia shareholders and investors think there's more in the plate.

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Speaker 2: It's share price jumped seven percent yesterday under its boss

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Speaker 2: Scott Harley. Insignia's pushing ahead with the strategy to restore

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Speaker 2: investor confidence. Hasn't had a great run in Signia bought

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Speaker 2: a bunch of businesses, really struggled to integrate them. For example,

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Speaker 2: it bought MLC off National Australia Bank back in May one.

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Speaker 2: It is the third largest player in the superannuation sector,

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Speaker 2: so this is big time, but it really has struggled,

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Speaker 2: probably to realize its value anyway. Three private equity groups

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Speaker 2: think there is plenty of value there and they're fighting

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Speaker 2: over it, and.

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Speaker 1: Toll road group Transurban could become a takeover target, according

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Speaker 1: to investment bankers, on the back of a dearth of

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Speaker 1: infrastructure players on the ASX and a light luster share

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Speaker 1: price for the last five years.

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Speaker 2: Sean always interesting when the financial media, particularly thin review

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Speaker 2: of the Australian start writing stories about a company could

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Speaker 2: become a takeover play. They don't come from nowhere. Someone

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Speaker 2: is fishing. It doesn't mean anything's happening, but someone is

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Speaker 2: just sort of letting the idea simmer. Now. Transurban hasn't

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Speaker 2: had a good few years. I mean it was share

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Speaker 2: prices flat last year. Over the last five years, it

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Speaker 2: actually hasn't done much whereas the market has. It's worth

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Speaker 2: about forty one billion dollars, so a share price, sorry,

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Speaker 2: I mean a sale would probably cost I don't know,

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Speaker 2: fifty five sixty billion dollars. You would imagine. There's not

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Speaker 2: that many infrastructure plays on the AX anymore. Sydney Airport's

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Speaker 2: was the big one that's gone. So for those superannuation

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Speaker 2: funds that just like that regular income transurban suddenly looks

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Speaker 2: quite attractive. It's toll roads like Sydney West Connects just

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Speaker 2: provide that steady returns mostly fares go up for our

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Speaker 2: toll fares, and therefore income for these toll road groups

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Speaker 2: go up by up to four percent so inflation or

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Speaker 2: four percent. That tends to be the case in transurban

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Speaker 2: mostly so local monopoly just the kind of thing that

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Speaker 2: super funds like and it's really interesting that all of

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Speaker 2: a sudden, we're getting stories about transurban you know, being

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Speaker 2: in the sites of pe.

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Speaker 1: Okay turning to international news now Sean and Alphabet shares

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Speaker 1: tumbled after slowing growth in the Google parents cloud business

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Speaker 1: and plans to spend seventy five billion dollars this year

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Speaker 1: on building capacity for artificial intelligence products. All combined to

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Speaker 1: unnerve investors a little bit.

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Speaker 2: Alphabet reported double digit rises in the fourth quarter in

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Speaker 2: fourth quarter revenue and profits. That was driven by its

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Speaker 2: core advertising business. But the future is in AI, so

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Speaker 2: investors think, and they were disappointed with the outcome for

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Speaker 2: its vast cloud unit. Now Google runs data centers post

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Speaker 2: to thirty percent increase, but that was disappointing. The scale

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Speaker 2: of Google's AI related spending to meet demand surprised the market.

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Speaker 2: According to the FT, Alphabet chief executive Sindar Pitcha said

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Speaker 2: spending on data centers and servers would accelerate to seventy

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Speaker 2: five billion US to time this year. That's about fifty

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Speaker 2: percent more than last year, about a third more than

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Speaker 2: Wall Street had estimated. Alphabet chairs after trading dropped as

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Speaker 2: much as eighty percent. It was on track for one

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Speaker 2: of its worst days in a decade. About two hundred

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Speaker 2: million dollars worth of market capitalization in that But it's

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Speaker 2: all on the back of this seventy five billion US

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Speaker 2: dollars in one year to invest in al pretty phenomenal.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, staggering figures. Now a terrible story out of Europe shown.

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Speaker 1: At least eleven people have been killed at an adult

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Speaker 1: education center in Sweden in the country's worst ever mass shooting.

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Speaker 1: This was a school that runs classes for students over

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Speaker 1: the age of twenty, including Swedish classes for immigrants. They

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Speaker 1: do vocational training and programs for people with intellectual disabilities.

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Speaker 2: Yes swims. Pm ulf Christensen described the attack as the

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Speaker 2: worst mass shooting in Swedish history. Police believe the gunman

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Speaker 2: who was one of those killed, acted alone and had

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Speaker 2: no suspected connections the terrorism. Sweden has a high level

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Speaker 2: of gun ownership, largely because of hunting, and in recent

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Speaker 2: years has recorded a high rate per capita of gun violence.

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Speaker 2: School attacks they are very rare, with just ten people

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Speaker 2: killed in seven incidents between twenty ten and twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 1: And finally, Sean I mentioned this one earlier. The US

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Speaker 1: Postal Service has temporarily stopped accepting parcels from mainland China

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Speaker 1: and from Hong Kong, which, as you can imagine, has

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Speaker 1: thrown online shopping into absolute chaos.

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Speaker 2: Guess how many parcels from overseas so imported parcels the

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Speaker 2: US Postal Service deals with every day.

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Speaker 1: At least twenty. I don't know. I would imagine it's

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Speaker 1: it would be a million.

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Speaker 2: Three million, and at least half of them are from China.

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Speaker 1: You're kidding.

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Speaker 2: And so, what the US Postal Service said is that

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Speaker 2: there's a suspension in place until further notice. Didn't really

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Speaker 2: give it a reason, but it does come after Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump and post an additional ten percent tariff on all

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Speaker 2: goods imported to the US to the US from China.

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Speaker 2: His executive order eliminated an exemption that allowed goods worth

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Speaker 2: eight hundred dollars or less to enter the US without

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Speaker 2: having to pay duties or certain taxes. That's extremely relevant

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Speaker 2: because millions of parcels enter the US from China without

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Speaker 2: actually having to pay duties or taxes because they're very small.

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Speaker 2: The so called deminimus tax loophole has been under fire

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Speaker 2: in recent years, particularly as she and t MoU sells

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Speaker 2: more products to US customers. Well, with these tariffs now

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Speaker 2: and the fact that d minis no longer applies to

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Speaker 2: these smaller parcels, then the US perstal Service doesn't want

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Speaker 2: to deliver go to the warehouse, is what they must

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Speaker 2: be like how.

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Speaker 1: The logistical I always think back to the start of Castaway,

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Speaker 1: the movie. You've seen that, haven't you, And you see

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Speaker 1: kind of Tom Hanks flying where did it I to

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Speaker 1: to Russia? And he was doing it see if he

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Speaker 1: could beat the parcel that he had sent himself, and

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Speaker 1: just the logistics of it all with FedEx and stuff,

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Speaker 1: and now time's at by a million, and you've got

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Speaker 1: kind of what the US Postal Service is trying to coordinate,

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Speaker 1: and it's just like wow.

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Speaker 2: Once I was a correspondent in the US and I

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Speaker 2: went to Memphis and got to the Memphis Airport about

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Speaker 2: midnight and watched planes coming in and out of Memphis

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Speaker 2: between twelve midnight and five am at a time, every

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Speaker 2: thirty seconds they were landing or taking off. Because Memphis

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Speaker 2: is the center. Memphis is sort of in the center

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Speaker 2: of the US and a hub for some of those

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Speaker 2: big parcel service places. So once the passenger airlines have finished,

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Speaker 2: it's open for freight and it was one of the

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Speaker 2: most phenomen all things I have ever seen in my life.

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Speaker 1: How does she get so lucky to have five hours

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Speaker 1: of uninterrupted plane watching time?

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Speaker 2: It was just incredible.

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Speaker 1: That's amazing, Sean. Up next is the Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: Daily Interview. Your guest today is Nicholas More, former chief

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Speaker 1: executive of McCrary who was with McQuary for what thirty

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Speaker 1: plus years and chief executive for a decade of that time.

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Speaker 1: He is now Australia Special Envoy to Southeast Asia. Really

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Speaker 1: interesting conversation. Don't miss it. It's coming up next in

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Speaker 1: the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or

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Speaker 1: at Fearangreed dot com dot au. Thank you very much, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Thursday, the sixth of February twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.