WEBVTT - Why the government is preaching climate doom

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<v Speaker 1>From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Christinamiot.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Tuesday, September sixteenth, twenty twenty five. Just since Alan

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<v Speaker 1>says Victoria won't turn its back on China, the Victorian

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<v Speaker 1>premiere unveiled her plan to supercharge Chinese investment in the

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<v Speaker 1>state's public transport, clean energy and higher education sectors in

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<v Speaker 1>a speech delivered in Beijing on Monday night. Hunters and

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<v Speaker 1>Collectors frontman Mark Seymour cut ties with his mother in

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<v Speaker 1>his twenties, thinking it would be forever, but writing for

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<v Speaker 1>The Australian Today, he says they reconnected following her dementia diagnosis.

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<v Speaker 1>You can read his tribute right now at the Australian

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<v Speaker 1>dot com dot au. The Albanzi government has set the

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<v Speaker 1>stage for its most ambitious emissions reductions targets ever. But

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<v Speaker 1>while the government is boosting renewable energy programs and ev incentives,

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<v Speaker 1>the trans position is proving much harder than anyone expected.

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<v Speaker 1>Today Political editor Jeff Chambers joins us to unpack the

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<v Speaker 1>government's doomsday warning and what it does next.

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<v Speaker 2>We are living climate change now. It's no longer forecast,

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<v Speaker 2>a projection or prediction. It is I live reality, and

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<v Speaker 2>it's too late to avoid any impacts, but it's not

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<v Speaker 2>too late to avoid the worst of the impacts.

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<v Speaker 1>This is Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen. On Monday, he

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<v Speaker 1>released a report that suggests our collective future is looking

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<v Speaker 1>pretty hairy if we don't take decisive action and fast.

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<v Speaker 1>It's called the National Climate Risk Assessment, and it says

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<v Speaker 1>no Australian community will be spared from potential catastrophe if

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<v Speaker 1>temperatures rise by just a couple of degrees in the

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<v Speaker 1>coming decades.

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<v Speaker 2>As report makes clear, the difference in terms of impact

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<v Speaker 2>between one point five and two degrees are warming littlone

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<v Speaker 2>three is very real for Australia, so hence our efforts

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<v Speaker 2>on mitigation must and will continue.

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<v Speaker 1>According to The Australian's Political editor Jeff Chambers, it's less

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<v Speaker 1>science paper, more Hollywood blockbuster.

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<v Speaker 3>I've described it as a bit of a doomsday report

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<v Speaker 3>and it reads like a script from a Hollywood natural

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<v Speaker 3>disaster movie.

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<v Speaker 1>The report says natural disasters could increase hundreds of millions

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<v Speaker 1>of dollars could be wiped from property values, heat related

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<v Speaker 1>deaths could increase by more than four hundred percent. Industries

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<v Speaker 1>could crumble and supply chains could be obliterated. Insurers could

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<v Speaker 1>jack up premiums, social cohesion could fracture, and first nations

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<v Speaker 1>people will bear the brunt of it, and on and

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<v Speaker 1>on it goes.

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<v Speaker 3>The National Climate Risk Is said basically compiles a bunch

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<v Speaker 3>of information from the Bureau of Meteorology, the Australian Bureau

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<v Speaker 3>of Statistics, Geoscience Australia and CIRO, and they set up

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<v Speaker 3>an independent body to actually do this work. So I

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<v Speaker 3>very much see this report as a cover a prelude

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<v Speaker 3>to the twenty thirty five target, telling all Australians that

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<v Speaker 3>if we don't strive for stronger action, these will be

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<v Speaker 3>the consequences. And one interesting takeout from this report For me,

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<v Speaker 3>I've got two young daughters and a lot of nieces

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<v Speaker 3>and nephews in high school, and I know for a

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<v Speaker 3>fact that already school children all the way up two

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<v Speaker 3>year twelve and then into university are very anxious about

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<v Speaker 3>the risk of climate because their whole lives they have

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<v Speaker 3>been warned that these really catastrophic situations will materialize in

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<v Speaker 3>their lifetimes. So you just wonder the duty of care

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<v Speaker 3>with a report like this. The flip side of that,

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<v Speaker 3>which the government would say is that this report outlines

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<v Speaker 3>the true scenarios and outcomes of doing nothing or not

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<v Speaker 3>doing enough on climate change.

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<v Speaker 1>So let's break this down. There are a number of

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<v Speaker 1>milestones referenced in the report. There's twenty thirty five and

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<v Speaker 1>twenty fifty, which most people will have heard about in

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<v Speaker 1>debates and discussion about climate change. Those are the deadlines

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<v Speaker 1>that most governments around the world are working towards to

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<v Speaker 1>reduce greenhouse gas emissions with a view to preventing these

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<v Speaker 1>one point five to two degree temperature rises. But the

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<v Speaker 1>National Climate Risk Assessment has introduced a new twenty ninety

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<v Speaker 1>milestone and a twenty one hundred milestone, and it goes

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<v Speaker 1>really hard on those milestones. Tell me a bit about that.

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<v Speaker 1>What's the point of it?

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<v Speaker 3>Look, I could only see the point of it as

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<v Speaker 3>being the further you look down the track, the more

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<v Speaker 3>extremes of a scenario that you are assuming is going

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<v Speaker 3>to make the situation look even scarier. And what does

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<v Speaker 3>that mean, Well, it means that the government should go

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<v Speaker 3>even harder than what they currently are doing. And it's

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<v Speaker 3>really interesting because we're seeing around the world, like minded

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<v Speaker 3>Western democracies pulling back a little bit on some of

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<v Speaker 3>the hopes and aspirations that they had because obviously with

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<v Speaker 3>the biggest polluters in the well being China, India, in

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<v Speaker 3>the United States under their current governments, they're not interested

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<v Speaker 3>in targets. And then I saw last week in Canada

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<v Speaker 3>Mark Karney, who's forged a pretty close relationship with Anthony Alberinezi,

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<v Speaker 3>and he was asked about Canada's twenty thirty and twenty

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<v Speaker 3>thirty five targets, and he talked down a firm commitment

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<v Speaker 3>to achieving those targets and said he was more focused

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<v Speaker 3>on results rather than objectives. My concern about some of

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<v Speaker 3>the numbers in this report is not only is it

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<v Speaker 3>looking at various scenarios out to twenty fifty, it also

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<v Speaker 3>introduces these new milestone dates, So it makes you think,

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<v Speaker 3>how on Earth can you reasonably model anything accurately that

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<v Speaker 3>is seventy five years away from now.

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<v Speaker 1>The National Climate Risk Assessment was released in tandem with

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<v Speaker 1>a so called National Adaptation Plan. It's basically the blueprint

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<v Speaker 1>for how the government thinks it'll meet its various emissions

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<v Speaker 1>reductions targets, and it calls on households and the private

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<v Speaker 1>sector to walk in lockstep with all levels of government

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<v Speaker 1>on climate action, and.

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<v Speaker 2>So the National Adaptation Plan is a framework for that

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<v Speaker 2>conversation about how to crowd in the funding, how to

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<v Speaker 2>ensure that we're all fulfilling our responsibilities, that we're working

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<v Speaker 2>together on that task.

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<v Speaker 3>Adaptation that's all about getting the write infrastructure in place,

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<v Speaker 3>and obviously that means supporting that clean energy revolution to

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<v Speaker 3>try and lower Australia's emissions. But Australia is a pretty

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<v Speaker 3>wild and wooly country. We've been experiencing cyclones, storms, floodings, bushfires,

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<v Speaker 3>heat waves for many centuries and there is a level

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<v Speaker 3>of adaptation that is already in place and the government

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<v Speaker 3>is obviously calling for that to be turbocharged, and I

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<v Speaker 3>think aligned with that push, we're seeing a lot of

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<v Speaker 3>alban easy government programs established by Chris Bowen. So that

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<v Speaker 3>might be your batteries at home, your solar panels at home,

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<v Speaker 3>people taking up electric vehicles. So you're seeing a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of different programs which are costing taxpayers, which is ultimately

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<v Speaker 3>Australian's a lot of money to fund. And the higher

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<v Speaker 3>we push up that ambition, the more expensive this mission becomes.

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<v Speaker 3>We don't really know how much extra will all be

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<v Speaker 3>expected to pay for this. So I think it's about,

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<v Speaker 3>I guess, changing the culture and the way that families live,

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<v Speaker 3>households approach things. The problem I see in it. You've

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<v Speaker 3>got millions upon millions of people who have chosen to

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<v Speaker 3>live in these climate impact zones, who've been allowed to

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<v Speaker 3>live in these areas. How do you wind all that back?

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up? We've seen the opening Act, Now get ready

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<v Speaker 1>for the big show. The timing of the National Climate

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<v Speaker 1>Risk Assessment released by Chris Bowen on Monday is no coincidence.

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<v Speaker 1>The Climate Change Minister will make his final recommendations for

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<v Speaker 1>the government's greenhouse gas emissions reductions target to the Prime

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<v Speaker 1>Minister and Cabinet any day now more.

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<v Speaker 3>When will we know soon?

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<v Speaker 2>I received it on Friday afternoon. I'm working through it.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm giving it due and proper regard. You won't be

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<v Speaker 2>the first to know what my recommendation is. The Cabinet

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<v Speaker 2>will be the first to know. You'll be the second.

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<v Speaker 3>Tonight.

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<v Speaker 1>Here's Jeff Chambers.

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<v Speaker 3>So the government has pushed this process out as far

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<v Speaker 3>as they possibly can. As we know, there's already twenty

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<v Speaker 3>thirty targets forty three percent reduction on two thousand and

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<v Speaker 3>five levels by the end of the decade and eighty

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<v Speaker 3>two percent of renewables in the grid. Now, on both

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<v Speaker 3>of those fronts, the Albanese government is already struggling to

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<v Speaker 3>achieve those. On current trajectory levels, they won't achieve those,

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<v Speaker 3>but under the Paris Agreement u N rules, by the

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<v Speaker 3>end of this month, Australia has to lodge its new

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<v Speaker 3>nationally determined contribution. The headline of that is the twenty

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<v Speaker 3>thirty five targets. We're expecting the Prime Minister and mister

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<v Speaker 3>Bowen to unveil that new target by the end of

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<v Speaker 3>this week. I believe that both men, certainly the Prime

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<v Speaker 3>Minister is heading to New York for his first United

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<v Speaker 3>Nations General Assembly, and they will be selling to the

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<v Speaker 3>world what we're doing, because obviously they are still trying

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<v Speaker 3>to land the un COP thirty one summit, which is

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<v Speaker 3>notionally slated to be held in Adelaide next year, co

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<v Speaker 3>hosted with Pacific Nations, and I'm sure that the Prime

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<v Speaker 3>Minister and Chris Bowen will be trying to use that

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<v Speaker 3>twenty thirty five target to try and make that final

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<v Speaker 3>push to land the summit. I believe that the government,

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<v Speaker 3>while only officially receiving the advice on Friday, would have

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<v Speaker 3>had a pretty clear idea of which way that they

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<v Speaker 3>were going to look. I understand that it'll be a range,

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<v Speaker 3>and I'm expecting that will probably be in the sixties.

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<v Speaker 3>Some of the more conservative types in the labor movement

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<v Speaker 3>and some in the business community believe, to be realistic,

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<v Speaker 3>we should be close to where Canada is and be

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<v Speaker 3>in the fifties, potentially in the late fifties. But there

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<v Speaker 3>is a lot of internal pressure and pressure from Greens

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<v Speaker 3>and labor voters and stakeholders that at the very least

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<v Speaker 3>the government doesn't go under what the Climate Change Authority

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<v Speaker 3>has been consulting on in that sixty five to seventy

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<v Speaker 3>five range, so you know, you might see something that

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<v Speaker 3>looks like, say sixty three to sixty five. They've got

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<v Speaker 3>to strike a balance there because there is a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of challenges coming down the line in terms of not

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<v Speaker 3>building enough renewables, not getting transmission up and running quick enough,

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<v Speaker 3>and not seeing evs being adopted quick enough. So if

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<v Speaker 3>you have this really ambitious twenty thirty five target, it

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<v Speaker 3>carries a lot of political risks if you are too ambitious,

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<v Speaker 3>and obviously for Labor it carries some risks from their

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<v Speaker 3>left flank if they are not ambitious enough.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah. Just lastly, you mentioned there that the Coalition is

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<v Speaker 1>kind of at war with itself over net zero. There

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<v Speaker 1>are factions of the Liberal and National Parties who want

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<v Speaker 1>Susan Lee to abandon that policy entirely, and then there

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<v Speaker 1>are others who want her to stay the course, whatever

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<v Speaker 1>that course may be. At this point, how does the

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<v Speaker 1>coalition navigate this issue going forward?

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<v Speaker 3>I don't think they've actually worked that out, and I

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<v Speaker 3>think for Susan Lee and her supporters they hoped that

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<v Speaker 3>they could have time. They thought it was such a

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<v Speaker 3>devastating loss that surely people will give them the space

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<v Speaker 3>and time to work out coherent policies and try and

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<v Speaker 3>put themselves in a bit of a more competitive position.

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<v Speaker 3>And ultimately, as we always see with the coalition, elements

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<v Speaker 3>inside both the Nats and the Liberal Party have a

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<v Speaker 3>clash of ideology when it comes to things like net

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<v Speaker 3>zero and emissions targets, and we're starting to see that

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<v Speaker 3>bear out very publicly. It's not a news story for

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<v Speaker 3>the Coalition and really has become an existential problem.

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<v Speaker 1>Jeff Chambers is The Australian's Political editor. You can read

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<v Speaker 1>his full analysis of the National Climate Change Assessment right

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<v Speaker 1>now at the Australian dot com dot au