1
00:00:05,160 --> 00:00:08,280
Speaker 1: From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Christinamiot.

2
00:00:08,560 --> 00:00:14,520
Speaker 1: It's Tuesday, September sixteenth, twenty twenty five. Just since Alan

3
00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:18,440
Speaker 1: says Victoria won't turn its back on China, the Victorian

4
00:00:18,440 --> 00:00:22,040
Speaker 1: premiere unveiled her plan to supercharge Chinese investment in the

5
00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:26,119
Speaker 1: state's public transport, clean energy and higher education sectors in

6
00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:31,400
Speaker 1: a speech delivered in Beijing on Monday night. Hunters and

7
00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:34,720
Speaker 1: Collectors frontman Mark Seymour cut ties with his mother in

8
00:00:34,800 --> 00:00:38,440
Speaker 1: his twenties, thinking it would be forever, but writing for

9
00:00:38,479 --> 00:00:43,800
Speaker 1: The Australian Today, he says they reconnected following her dementia diagnosis.

10
00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:46,480
Speaker 1: You can read his tribute right now at the Australian

11
00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:51,159
Speaker 1: dot com dot au. The Albanzi government has set the

12
00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:55,240
Speaker 1: stage for its most ambitious emissions reductions targets ever. But

13
00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:59,440
Speaker 1: while the government is boosting renewable energy programs and ev incentives,

14
00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:03,000
Speaker 1: the trans position is proving much harder than anyone expected.

15
00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:07,520
Speaker 1: Today Political editor Jeff Chambers joins us to unpack the

16
00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:10,920
Speaker 1: government's doomsday warning and what it does next.

17
00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:20,840
Speaker 2: We are living climate change now. It's no longer forecast,

18
00:01:21,040 --> 00:01:25,000
Speaker 2: a projection or prediction. It is I live reality, and

19
00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:28,120
Speaker 2: it's too late to avoid any impacts, but it's not

20
00:01:28,160 --> 00:01:30,560
Speaker 2: too late to avoid the worst of the impacts.

21
00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:36,399
Speaker 1: This is Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen. On Monday, he

22
00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:39,600
Speaker 1: released a report that suggests our collective future is looking

23
00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:43,560
Speaker 1: pretty hairy if we don't take decisive action and fast.

24
00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:47,960
Speaker 1: It's called the National Climate Risk Assessment, and it says

25
00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:52,400
Speaker 1: no Australian community will be spared from potential catastrophe if

26
00:01:52,440 --> 00:01:55,280
Speaker 1: temperatures rise by just a couple of degrees in the

27
00:01:55,280 --> 00:01:56,200
Speaker 1: coming decades.

28
00:01:57,480 --> 00:02:00,000
Speaker 2: As report makes clear, the difference in terms of impact

29
00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:03,080
Speaker 2: between one point five and two degrees are warming littlone

30
00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:08,320
Speaker 2: three is very real for Australia, so hence our efforts

31
00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:11,400
Speaker 2: on mitigation must and will continue.

32
00:02:14,120 --> 00:02:17,800
Speaker 1: According to The Australian's Political editor Jeff Chambers, it's less

33
00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:20,480
Speaker 1: science paper, more Hollywood blockbuster.

34
00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:25,320
Speaker 3: I've described it as a bit of a doomsday report

35
00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:28,799
Speaker 3: and it reads like a script from a Hollywood natural

36
00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:31,040
Speaker 3: disaster movie.

37
00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:35,720
Speaker 1: The report says natural disasters could increase hundreds of millions

38
00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:39,240
Speaker 1: of dollars could be wiped from property values, heat related

39
00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:43,440
Speaker 1: deaths could increase by more than four hundred percent. Industries

40
00:02:43,480 --> 00:02:47,600
Speaker 1: could crumble and supply chains could be obliterated. Insurers could

41
00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:52,560
Speaker 1: jack up premiums, social cohesion could fracture, and first nations

42
00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:55,320
Speaker 1: people will bear the brunt of it, and on and

43
00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:56,079
Speaker 1: on it goes.

44
00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:02,120
Speaker 3: The National Climate Risk Is said basically compiles a bunch

45
00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:05,959
Speaker 3: of information from the Bureau of Meteorology, the Australian Bureau

46
00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:10,520
Speaker 3: of Statistics, Geoscience Australia and CIRO, and they set up

47
00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:14,000
Speaker 3: an independent body to actually do this work. So I

48
00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:18,320
Speaker 3: very much see this report as a cover a prelude

49
00:03:18,480 --> 00:03:21,960
Speaker 3: to the twenty thirty five target, telling all Australians that

50
00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:25,280
Speaker 3: if we don't strive for stronger action, these will be

51
00:03:25,320 --> 00:03:30,600
Speaker 3: the consequences. And one interesting takeout from this report For me,

52
00:03:31,080 --> 00:03:33,919
Speaker 3: I've got two young daughters and a lot of nieces

53
00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:36,120
Speaker 3: and nephews in high school, and I know for a

54
00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:39,840
Speaker 3: fact that already school children all the way up two

55
00:03:39,880 --> 00:03:43,640
Speaker 3: year twelve and then into university are very anxious about

56
00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:46,840
Speaker 3: the risk of climate because their whole lives they have

57
00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:52,240
Speaker 3: been warned that these really catastrophic situations will materialize in

58
00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:55,880
Speaker 3: their lifetimes. So you just wonder the duty of care

59
00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:58,560
Speaker 3: with a report like this. The flip side of that,

60
00:03:59,160 --> 00:04:03,040
Speaker 3: which the government would say is that this report outlines

61
00:04:03,720 --> 00:04:07,680
Speaker 3: the true scenarios and outcomes of doing nothing or not

62
00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:10,600
Speaker 3: doing enough on climate change.

63
00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:14,000
Speaker 1: So let's break this down. There are a number of

64
00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:16,880
Speaker 1: milestones referenced in the report. There's twenty thirty five and

65
00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:19,960
Speaker 1: twenty fifty, which most people will have heard about in

66
00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:24,120
Speaker 1: debates and discussion about climate change. Those are the deadlines

67
00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:26,880
Speaker 1: that most governments around the world are working towards to

68
00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:31,280
Speaker 1: reduce greenhouse gas emissions with a view to preventing these

69
00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:34,760
Speaker 1: one point five to two degree temperature rises. But the

70
00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:39,080
Speaker 1: National Climate Risk Assessment has introduced a new twenty ninety

71
00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:42,800
Speaker 1: milestone and a twenty one hundred milestone, and it goes

72
00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:46,240
Speaker 1: really hard on those milestones. Tell me a bit about that.

73
00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:47,400
Speaker 1: What's the point of it?

74
00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:50,440
Speaker 3: Look, I could only see the point of it as

75
00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:54,160
Speaker 3: being the further you look down the track, the more

76
00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:59,080
Speaker 3: extremes of a scenario that you are assuming is going

77
00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:02,920
Speaker 3: to make the situation look even scarier. And what does

78
00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:06,359
Speaker 3: that mean, Well, it means that the government should go

79
00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:09,920
Speaker 3: even harder than what they currently are doing. And it's

80
00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:14,320
Speaker 3: really interesting because we're seeing around the world, like minded

81
00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:18,200
Speaker 3: Western democracies pulling back a little bit on some of

82
00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:21,640
Speaker 3: the hopes and aspirations that they had because obviously with

83
00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:24,720
Speaker 3: the biggest polluters in the well being China, India, in

84
00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:28,560
Speaker 3: the United States under their current governments, they're not interested

85
00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:31,400
Speaker 3: in targets. And then I saw last week in Canada

86
00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:35,560
Speaker 3: Mark Karney, who's forged a pretty close relationship with Anthony Alberinezi,

87
00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:39,719
Speaker 3: and he was asked about Canada's twenty thirty and twenty

88
00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:44,920
Speaker 3: thirty five targets, and he talked down a firm commitment

89
00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:48,400
Speaker 3: to achieving those targets and said he was more focused

90
00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:54,640
Speaker 3: on results rather than objectives. My concern about some of

91
00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:58,600
Speaker 3: the numbers in this report is not only is it

92
00:05:58,640 --> 00:06:02,960
Speaker 3: looking at various scenarios out to twenty fifty, it also

93
00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:07,120
Speaker 3: introduces these new milestone dates, So it makes you think,

94
00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:13,160
Speaker 3: how on Earth can you reasonably model anything accurately that

95
00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:20,080
Speaker 3: is seventy five years away from now.

96
00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:25,640
Speaker 1: The National Climate Risk Assessment was released in tandem with

97
00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:30,200
Speaker 1: a so called National Adaptation Plan. It's basically the blueprint

98
00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:32,960
Speaker 1: for how the government thinks it'll meet its various emissions

99
00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:36,360
Speaker 1: reductions targets, and it calls on households and the private

100
00:06:36,400 --> 00:06:39,880
Speaker 1: sector to walk in lockstep with all levels of government

101
00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:42,600
Speaker 1: on climate action, and.

102
00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:45,560
Speaker 2: So the National Adaptation Plan is a framework for that

103
00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:48,000
Speaker 2: conversation about how to crowd in the funding, how to

104
00:06:48,120 --> 00:06:51,800
Speaker 2: ensure that we're all fulfilling our responsibilities, that we're working

105
00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:53,800
Speaker 2: together on that task.

106
00:06:56,680 --> 00:07:00,480
Speaker 3: Adaptation that's all about getting the write infrastructure in place,

107
00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:04,359
Speaker 3: and obviously that means supporting that clean energy revolution to

108
00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:08,760
Speaker 3: try and lower Australia's emissions. But Australia is a pretty

109
00:07:08,760 --> 00:07:14,840
Speaker 3: wild and wooly country. We've been experiencing cyclones, storms, floodings, bushfires,

110
00:07:15,160 --> 00:07:18,960
Speaker 3: heat waves for many centuries and there is a level

111
00:07:19,000 --> 00:07:22,720
Speaker 3: of adaptation that is already in place and the government

112
00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:27,040
Speaker 3: is obviously calling for that to be turbocharged, and I

113
00:07:27,080 --> 00:07:31,000
Speaker 3: think aligned with that push, we're seeing a lot of

114
00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:35,480
Speaker 3: alban easy government programs established by Chris Bowen. So that

115
00:07:35,560 --> 00:07:38,800
Speaker 3: might be your batteries at home, your solar panels at home,

116
00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:43,000
Speaker 3: people taking up electric vehicles. So you're seeing a lot

117
00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:46,840
Speaker 3: of different programs which are costing taxpayers, which is ultimately

118
00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:50,320
Speaker 3: Australian's a lot of money to fund. And the higher

119
00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:55,800
Speaker 3: we push up that ambition, the more expensive this mission becomes.

120
00:07:56,480 --> 00:07:59,160
Speaker 3: We don't really know how much extra will all be

121
00:07:59,200 --> 00:08:02,320
Speaker 3: expected to pay for this. So I think it's about,

122
00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:06,360
Speaker 3: I guess, changing the culture and the way that families live,

123
00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:10,000
Speaker 3: households approach things. The problem I see in it. You've

124
00:08:10,040 --> 00:08:13,280
Speaker 3: got millions upon millions of people who have chosen to

125
00:08:13,320 --> 00:08:16,160
Speaker 3: live in these climate impact zones, who've been allowed to

126
00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:18,840
Speaker 3: live in these areas. How do you wind all that back?

127
00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:24,880
Speaker 1: Coming up? We've seen the opening Act, Now get ready

128
00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:37,280
Speaker 1: for the big show. The timing of the National Climate

129
00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:41,120
Speaker 1: Risk Assessment released by Chris Bowen on Monday is no coincidence.

130
00:08:41,520 --> 00:08:44,800
Speaker 1: The Climate Change Minister will make his final recommendations for

131
00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:48,360
Speaker 1: the government's greenhouse gas emissions reductions target to the Prime

132
00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:52,360
Speaker 1: Minister and Cabinet any day now more.

133
00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:54,600
Speaker 3: When will we know soon?

134
00:08:54,840 --> 00:08:57,920
Speaker 2: I received it on Friday afternoon. I'm working through it.

135
00:08:58,160 --> 00:09:00,720
Speaker 2: I'm giving it due and proper regard. You won't be

136
00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:02,960
Speaker 2: the first to know what my recommendation is. The Cabinet

137
00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:04,439
Speaker 2: will be the first to know. You'll be the second.

138
00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:04,720
Speaker 3: Tonight.

139
00:09:05,679 --> 00:09:06,880
Speaker 1: Here's Jeff Chambers.

140
00:09:08,320 --> 00:09:11,480
Speaker 3: So the government has pushed this process out as far

141
00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:14,640
Speaker 3: as they possibly can. As we know, there's already twenty

142
00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:19,160
Speaker 3: thirty targets forty three percent reduction on two thousand and

143
00:09:19,280 --> 00:09:22,360
Speaker 3: five levels by the end of the decade and eighty

144
00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:25,720
Speaker 3: two percent of renewables in the grid. Now, on both

145
00:09:25,760 --> 00:09:29,120
Speaker 3: of those fronts, the Albanese government is already struggling to

146
00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:32,679
Speaker 3: achieve those. On current trajectory levels, they won't achieve those,

147
00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:36,920
Speaker 3: but under the Paris Agreement u N rules, by the

148
00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:39,760
Speaker 3: end of this month, Australia has to lodge its new

149
00:09:39,880 --> 00:09:43,679
Speaker 3: nationally determined contribution. The headline of that is the twenty

150
00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:47,439
Speaker 3: thirty five targets. We're expecting the Prime Minister and mister

151
00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:51,360
Speaker 3: Bowen to unveil that new target by the end of

152
00:09:51,400 --> 00:09:54,400
Speaker 3: this week. I believe that both men, certainly the Prime

153
00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:58,160
Speaker 3: Minister is heading to New York for his first United

154
00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:02,640
Speaker 3: Nations General Assembly, and they will be selling to the

155
00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:06,200
Speaker 3: world what we're doing, because obviously they are still trying

156
00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:09,680
Speaker 3: to land the un COP thirty one summit, which is

157
00:10:09,840 --> 00:10:13,280
Speaker 3: notionally slated to be held in Adelaide next year, co

158
00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:16,480
Speaker 3: hosted with Pacific Nations, and I'm sure that the Prime

159
00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:19,520
Speaker 3: Minister and Chris Bowen will be trying to use that

160
00:10:19,600 --> 00:10:22,560
Speaker 3: twenty thirty five target to try and make that final

161
00:10:22,640 --> 00:10:26,040
Speaker 3: push to land the summit. I believe that the government,

162
00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:29,440
Speaker 3: while only officially receiving the advice on Friday, would have

163
00:10:29,520 --> 00:10:32,319
Speaker 3: had a pretty clear idea of which way that they

164
00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:35,960
Speaker 3: were going to look. I understand that it'll be a range,

165
00:10:36,160 --> 00:10:38,679
Speaker 3: and I'm expecting that will probably be in the sixties.

166
00:10:39,200 --> 00:10:42,240
Speaker 3: Some of the more conservative types in the labor movement

167
00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:45,520
Speaker 3: and some in the business community believe, to be realistic,

168
00:10:45,559 --> 00:10:47,680
Speaker 3: we should be close to where Canada is and be

169
00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:50,319
Speaker 3: in the fifties, potentially in the late fifties. But there

170
00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:53,040
Speaker 3: is a lot of internal pressure and pressure from Greens

171
00:10:53,040 --> 00:10:56,880
Speaker 3: and labor voters and stakeholders that at the very least

172
00:10:56,920 --> 00:11:00,800
Speaker 3: the government doesn't go under what the Climate Change Authority

173
00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:03,800
Speaker 3: has been consulting on in that sixty five to seventy

174
00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:07,360
Speaker 3: five range, so you know, you might see something that

175
00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:11,480
Speaker 3: looks like, say sixty three to sixty five. They've got

176
00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:14,600
Speaker 3: to strike a balance there because there is a lot

177
00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:17,320
Speaker 3: of challenges coming down the line in terms of not

178
00:11:17,400 --> 00:11:21,280
Speaker 3: building enough renewables, not getting transmission up and running quick enough,

179
00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:24,760
Speaker 3: and not seeing evs being adopted quick enough. So if

180
00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:27,840
Speaker 3: you have this really ambitious twenty thirty five target, it

181
00:11:27,880 --> 00:11:30,880
Speaker 3: carries a lot of political risks if you are too ambitious,

182
00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:34,679
Speaker 3: and obviously for Labor it carries some risks from their

183
00:11:34,760 --> 00:11:37,559
Speaker 3: left flank if they are not ambitious enough.

184
00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:40,440
Speaker 1: Yeah. Just lastly, you mentioned there that the Coalition is

185
00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:43,520
Speaker 1: kind of at war with itself over net zero. There

186
00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:45,839
Speaker 1: are factions of the Liberal and National Parties who want

187
00:11:45,920 --> 00:11:49,280
Speaker 1: Susan Lee to abandon that policy entirely, and then there

188
00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:52,760
Speaker 1: are others who want her to stay the course, whatever

189
00:11:52,800 --> 00:11:55,560
Speaker 1: that course may be. At this point, how does the

190
00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:58,280
Speaker 1: coalition navigate this issue going forward?

191
00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:02,880
Speaker 3: I don't think they've actually worked that out, and I

192
00:12:02,880 --> 00:12:05,720
Speaker 3: think for Susan Lee and her supporters they hoped that

193
00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:08,360
Speaker 3: they could have time. They thought it was such a

194
00:12:08,400 --> 00:12:11,160
Speaker 3: devastating loss that surely people will give them the space

195
00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:15,560
Speaker 3: and time to work out coherent policies and try and

196
00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:18,200
Speaker 3: put themselves in a bit of a more competitive position.

197
00:12:18,800 --> 00:12:22,680
Speaker 3: And ultimately, as we always see with the coalition, elements

198
00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:25,400
Speaker 3: inside both the Nats and the Liberal Party have a

199
00:12:25,440 --> 00:12:27,959
Speaker 3: clash of ideology when it comes to things like net

200
00:12:28,040 --> 00:12:31,360
Speaker 3: zero and emissions targets, and we're starting to see that

201
00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:34,240
Speaker 3: bear out very publicly. It's not a news story for

202
00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:39,760
Speaker 3: the Coalition and really has become an existential problem.

203
00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:45,760
Speaker 1: Jeff Chambers is The Australian's Political editor. You can read

204
00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:48,920
Speaker 1: his full analysis of the National Climate Change Assessment right

205
00:12:48,920 --> 00:13:04,880
Speaker 1: now at the Australian dot com dot au