1 00:00:03,470 --> 00:00:07,260 Sean Aylmer: Welcome to the Fear and Greed Daily Interview, I'm Sean Aylmer. Last 2 00:00:07,260 --> 00:00:10,260 Sean Aylmer: week we heard how both consumer and business confidence is 3 00:00:10,260 --> 00:00:13,010 Sean Aylmer: picking up just in time for Christmas. It's good news 4 00:00:13,010 --> 00:00:16,950 Sean Aylmer: for retailers with lockdowns lifting, vaccination rates soaring and customers 5 00:00:16,950 --> 00:00:20,040 Sean Aylmer: returning to bricks and mortar shops. Scentre Group, which owns 6 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:23,329 Sean Aylmer: the Westfield malls across the country, says occupancy rates are 7 00:00:23,329 --> 00:00:28,170 Sean Aylmer: now at 98.5% and more than 95% of stores are open. 8 00:00:28,520 --> 00:00:32,199 Sean Aylmer: So what's all this mean for investors. Ben Gilbert is 9 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:35,370 Sean Aylmer: the Head of Australian Research at Jarden and an expert 10 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:37,489 Sean Aylmer: in retail. Ben, welcome to Fear and Greed. 11 00:00:38,070 --> 00:00:39,019 Ben Gilbert: Thanks very much for having me. 12 00:00:39,700 --> 00:00:42,260 Sean Aylmer: So it all sounds pretty good. Are conditions right in 13 00:00:42,260 --> 00:00:44,300 Sean Aylmer: the route to Christmas, do you think for retailers and 14 00:00:44,300 --> 00:00:46,269 Sean Aylmer: people thinking about investing in retail stocks? 15 00:00:46,740 --> 00:00:49,460 Ben Gilbert: Well, there's definitely a lot of money that's swirling around and 16 00:00:49,460 --> 00:00:51,490 Ben Gilbert: I think we, as you said, we're seeing confidence starting 17 00:00:51,490 --> 00:00:53,790 Ben Gilbert: to pick up. The retail updates have shown that tradings 18 00:00:53,790 --> 00:00:56,490 Ben Gilbert: progressively got better since the August update. So look, I think there's a lot, 19 00:00:56,990 --> 00:01:00,000 Ben Gilbert: there's definitely some confidence around. The challenge is that if people can actually 20 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:01,790 Ben Gilbert: get the stock, because as we know and we are seeing it's 21 00:01:01,790 --> 00:01:04,770 Ben Gilbert: pretty well publicised. So definitely some stock challenges out there in terms of 22 00:01:05,230 --> 00:01:07,560 Ben Gilbert: from a supply chain perspective. But look, I think the 23 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:09,570 Ben Gilbert: big test is going to be the Cyber Monday and 24 00:01:09,630 --> 00:01:11,770 Ben Gilbert: Black Friday that's coming up, we'll see how those sales go. 25 00:01:12,420 --> 00:01:14,930 Ben Gilbert: If those look pretty strong, I think it's going to be a pretty good parameter 26 00:01:15,030 --> 00:01:15,539 Ben Gilbert: for Christmas 27 00:01:15,830 --> 00:01:18,690 Sean Aylmer: Black Friday and Cyber Monday, why are they so important? 28 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:21,650 Ben Gilbert: Well, look, I think the challenge for retailers historically has been, 29 00:01:21,650 --> 00:01:24,440 Ben Gilbert: you've got such a high concentration of sales and profit that falls 30 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:26,050 Ben Gilbert: in a couple of weeks. So if you can spread 31 00:01:26,050 --> 00:01:28,500 Ben Gilbert: that out, it takes a lot of pressure off supply chain. 32 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:30,459 Ben Gilbert: It also gives them a bit more visibility as they 33 00:01:30,459 --> 00:01:33,280 Ben Gilbert: head into Christmas and also allows them to manage their promotions. 34 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:36,300 Ben Gilbert: But look, they're great events. And, and the reality is November 35 00:01:36,300 --> 00:01:39,440 Ben Gilbert: last year was an absolute cracker. So they're obviously going 36 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:42,120 Ben Gilbert: to be working pretty hard to try and maintain that momentum. And if you 37 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:45,320 Ben Gilbert: can see up with a good November around these sort of cyber events, 38 00:01:45,380 --> 00:01:47,870 Ben Gilbert: it allows you to manage your Christmas trading much, much better. 39 00:01:48,490 --> 00:01:50,020 Ben Gilbert: And the fact that we've got a lot of money, sort of, 40 00:01:50,020 --> 00:01:52,780 Ben Gilbert: a couple hundred billion of savings, people have been locked up 41 00:01:52,780 --> 00:01:55,320 Ben Gilbert: for the last couple of months. I think people want to spend. 42 00:01:55,430 --> 00:01:57,700 Ben Gilbert: The question is going to be what categories they spend on. 43 00:01:58,260 --> 00:02:00,120 Ben Gilbert: And if you look at some of the stats and the numbers 44 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:02,340 Ben Gilbert: out there at the moment are you seeing restaurant bookings 45 00:02:02,340 --> 00:02:04,300 Ben Gilbert: are obviously very strong as we're seeing a big shift 46 00:02:04,300 --> 00:02:06,790 Ben Gilbert: to services, you can see that with a lot of the high frequency 47 00:02:06,790 --> 00:02:09,739 Ben Gilbert: data out there from CBA and NAB. So it's, it's going 48 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:10,900 Ben Gilbert: to be a bit of a question about what they spend on. 49 00:02:11,750 --> 00:02:14,389 Sean Aylmer: So let's get into that. You go through a shopping centre in New 50 00:02:14,389 --> 00:02:17,030 Sean Aylmer: South Wales, at least at the moment, it's busy, but 51 00:02:17,030 --> 00:02:19,450 Sean Aylmer: it's not super busy. And if you think of all 52 00:02:19,450 --> 00:02:24,419 Sean Aylmer: the primary investments stores, the, you know, Peter Alexander's and the 53 00:02:24,419 --> 00:02:29,230 Sean Aylmer: JB Hi- Fi, Adairs, Nick Scali, some of those discretionary retailers, 54 00:02:29,290 --> 00:02:32,239 Sean Aylmer: it just doesn't feel as if they're super busy. 55 00:02:32,620 --> 00:02:35,960 Ben Gilbert: Yeah. Well look, I think the traffic you see in the store, so if you look at footfall, 56 00:02:35,960 --> 00:02:38,209 Ben Gilbert: for instance, you look at Google mobility data, you can 57 00:02:38,210 --> 00:02:40,829 Ben Gilbert: say these sorts of things, traffic's coming up to sort 58 00:02:40,830 --> 00:02:42,811 Ben Gilbert: of broadly in line with where we were pre COVID. 59 00:02:42,811 --> 00:02:43,191 Sean Aylmer: Okay. 60 00:02:43,650 --> 00:02:45,220 Ben Gilbert: But the challenge that you've got is it's hard to 61 00:02:45,220 --> 00:02:46,160 Ben Gilbert: get into the store at the moment. 62 00:02:46,570 --> 00:02:46,720 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. 63 00:02:46,770 --> 00:02:49,950 Ben Gilbert: So I think what you're finding is the conversions are higher and you can see that with some 64 00:02:49,950 --> 00:02:51,380 Ben Gilbert: of the updates we've had from some of the property 65 00:02:51,380 --> 00:02:54,510 Ben Gilbert: guys this week, as they're saying, look, traffic's down X, 66 00:02:54,550 --> 00:02:56,750 Ben Gilbert: but the reality is what we're hearing is the sales are much, 67 00:02:56,750 --> 00:02:59,610 Ben Gilbert: much better. So people actually going in with purpose, you're 68 00:02:59,610 --> 00:03:02,100 Ben Gilbert: finding that people aren't sitting probably browsing around as much 69 00:03:02,340 --> 00:03:04,320 Ben Gilbert: cause they don't have the confidence to walk around whether it's 70 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:06,740 Ben Gilbert: sort of concerns around COVID or just the fact you've 71 00:03:06,740 --> 00:03:08,360 Ben Gilbert: got to check in to get into every store and 72 00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:10,680 Ben Gilbert: then show you a little tick that you've vaccinated. But 73 00:03:10,680 --> 00:03:12,880 Ben Gilbert: I do think conversions are up. The interesting thing for 74 00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:16,070 Ben Gilbert: the property players is heading into Christmas is, is how quickly 75 00:03:16,070 --> 00:03:19,230 Ben Gilbert: traffic resumes. Because as we know, you can see it with Aus 76 00:03:19,230 --> 00:03:21,590 Ben Gilbert: Post was talking about it this week, there's challenges around 77 00:03:21,590 --> 00:03:24,470 Ben Gilbert: getting product delivered pre Christmas. I think online penetrations could 78 00:03:24,470 --> 00:03:25,190 Ben Gilbert: remain strong. 79 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:25,510 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. 80 00:03:25,510 --> 00:03:26,630 Ben Gilbert: But I think people are going to have to get 81 00:03:26,630 --> 00:03:28,130 Ben Gilbert: back into stores to get the product they want. 82 00:03:28,130 --> 00:03:31,950 Sean Aylmer: Yeah, that makes a lot of sense because I only go to the shops, now, if I have a purpose, as 83 00:03:31,950 --> 00:03:35,540 Sean Aylmer: you put it. And what about bricks and mortar physical stores versus 84 00:03:35,540 --> 00:03:38,170 Sean Aylmer: online stores? How do you think that'll play out in 85 00:03:38,170 --> 00:03:39,220 Sean Aylmer: the next sort of three to six months? Well, I suppose they're up to Christmas particularly. 86 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:43,570 Ben Gilbert: Well look, I think we've definitely had a bit of a 87 00:03:43,570 --> 00:03:48,110 Ben Gilbert: sugar hit with COVID for online and you've seen online penetrations kicked up quite materially, but I think if you look forward now we're going to have to see some sort of moderation in online penetration. So I think stores are going to come back in a reasonable way, 88 00:03:55,990 --> 00:03:58,420 Ben Gilbert: but the thing that we're seeing, and I think what's really interesting through COVID is just 89 00:03:59,170 --> 00:04:01,040 Ben Gilbert: the amount of data that's been collected out there. 90 00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:01,100 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. 91 00:04:01,100 --> 00:04:04,140 Ben Gilbert: And there's some big data plays that's happening at the moment. You've seen Bunnings 92 00:04:04,290 --> 00:04:07,070 Ben Gilbert: and Officeworks have moved onto Flybuys this week. How West 93 00:04:07,070 --> 00:04:09,940 Ben Gilbert: Farmers are looking to propose to buy API. They're going to 94 00:04:09,940 --> 00:04:13,160 Ben Gilbert: get access to eight million members of this club. It's all 95 00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:14,890 Ben Gilbert: about data now. And I think what we're going to 96 00:04:14,890 --> 00:04:17,360 Ben Gilbert: find is that a lot of these big retailers are going to try and 97 00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:20,560 Ben Gilbert: capture more and more of your wallet and move into more adjacencies. 98 00:04:21,390 --> 00:04:23,770 Ben Gilbert: And they're going to use online. They're going to use stores, they're going to use however 99 00:04:23,910 --> 00:04:25,800 Ben Gilbert: they can to do it. But to the question I 100 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:27,810 Ben Gilbert: think exactly around stores, what we're seeing at the moment 101 00:04:27,810 --> 00:04:30,540 Ben Gilbert: is click and collect is what's really kicked up because people 102 00:04:30,540 --> 00:04:33,140 Ben Gilbert: don't have the confidence necessary to order online. So what 103 00:04:33,140 --> 00:04:35,181 Ben Gilbert: they're doing is they're moving into store, they picking up their product quickly and they're moving out. 104 00:04:35,181 --> 00:04:42,370 Sean Aylmer: Okay. You mentioned just then I think it's Wooly's and Coles are both improving their back office to 105 00:04:42,370 --> 00:04:44,950 Sean Aylmer: improve that whole click and click play, but they're going 106 00:04:44,950 --> 00:04:47,650 Sean Aylmer: beyond what we would traditionally think of what you'd go 107 00:04:47,650 --> 00:04:50,640 Sean Aylmer: and buy from Wooly's and Coles. What's the story behind that? 108 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:53,900 Ben Gilbert: Yeah. Well, this is what I think's probably one of the most 109 00:04:53,900 --> 00:04:56,719 Ben Gilbert: interesting things that's coming out of the last 12 months and 110 00:04:56,720 --> 00:05:00,450 Ben Gilbert: probably something that doesn't get as much discussion on news 111 00:05:00,450 --> 00:05:02,710 Ben Gilbert: out there as it's should, is just the level of 112 00:05:02,810 --> 00:05:05,219 Ben Gilbert: brand trust. And if you look at what's happened with 113 00:05:05,220 --> 00:05:08,320 Ben Gilbert: Coles and Woolworths in particular, you can see it with Bunnings, is that 114 00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:12,180 Ben Gilbert: brands that have delivered, executed and given customers what they 115 00:05:12,180 --> 00:05:14,660 Ben Gilbert: want in a safe environment, they're much, much more willing 116 00:05:14,660 --> 00:05:19,230 Ben Gilbert: to engage and spend money with them. And one other thing this means moving out is, is for Coles and Woolworths 117 00:05:19,230 --> 00:05:22,290 Ben Gilbert: that you mentioned, and West Farmers as well, is that they're 118 00:05:22,290 --> 00:05:24,710 Ben Gilbert: looking at for opportunities around how they stretch their brand 119 00:05:24,930 --> 00:05:28,849 Ben Gilbert: or move into other adjacencies. So Woolworths have launched a marketplace. 120 00:05:28,950 --> 00:05:31,130 Ben Gilbert: They've got the fantastic slide, if you look at their 121 00:05:31,130 --> 00:05:34,330 Ben Gilbert: investor presentation, looking at their ecosystem. And I think we've 122 00:05:34,330 --> 00:05:37,400 Ben Gilbert: talked about Omni Channel, but I think the new buzzword for retail 123 00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:39,800 Ben Gilbert: over the next 1, 2, 3, 5 years is going 124 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:42,510 Ben Gilbert: to be ecosystems because they've got opportunities to move into 125 00:05:42,510 --> 00:05:45,630 Ben Gilbert: whole other areas. So Wooly's for instance, has got an enormous media 126 00:05:45,630 --> 00:05:49,130 Ben Gilbert: business now called Cartology, it's generating tens of millions of dollars of revenue. 127 00:05:49,490 --> 00:05:51,779 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. Right. Incredible is Coles in that area yet? 128 00:05:52,250 --> 00:05:54,210 Ben Gilbert: They are, but I think Coles are probably a little 129 00:05:54,210 --> 00:05:56,490 Ben Gilbert: bit behind Woolworths, but they're definitely putting a lot of 130 00:05:56,490 --> 00:06:00,210 Ben Gilbert: money behind it. So Coles are spending billions of dollars 131 00:06:00,210 --> 00:06:02,290 Ben Gilbert: at the moment on their supply chain piece. So they've 132 00:06:02,290 --> 00:06:05,320 Ben Gilbert: got a partnership with Ocado and they'll be launching their 133 00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:07,760 Ben Gilbert: first couple of sheds with Ocado in the next couple of years. 134 00:06:08,050 --> 00:06:11,930 Ben Gilbert: They're also doing this something with Witron where they're getting an 135 00:06:11,930 --> 00:06:15,640 Ben Gilbert: automated DC. So they're doing it. Coles have launched a special 136 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:17,989 Ben Gilbert: buyers site in last couple of weeks, there's only a 137 00:06:17,990 --> 00:06:20,420 Ben Gilbert: few products on there, but that will expand. And look, 138 00:06:20,420 --> 00:06:22,660 Ben Gilbert: I wouldn't be surprised if in the next little while we saw 139 00:06:22,660 --> 00:06:25,180 Ben Gilbert: Coles move with a bigger push into the marketplace space 140 00:06:25,420 --> 00:06:25,690 Ben Gilbert: as well. 141 00:06:26,100 --> 00:06:27,720 Sean Aylmer: Stay with me, Ben, we'll be back in a minute. 142 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:35,760 Sean Aylmer: My guest today is Ben Gilbert, head of Australian research 143 00:06:35,760 --> 00:06:39,580 Sean Aylmer: at Jarden. So let's bring it back to investors. Do you 144 00:06:39,580 --> 00:06:42,800 Sean Aylmer: think the companies that do best with data and the 145 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:46,680 Sean Aylmer: big guys probably have their competitive advantage in that, are more likely 146 00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:47,700 Sean Aylmer: to outperform? 147 00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:49,740 Ben Gilbert: Yeah. Look, I think they are on a three to 148 00:06:49,740 --> 00:06:51,970 Ben Gilbert: five year view, but the challenge is it costs a 149 00:06:51,970 --> 00:06:53,010 Ben Gilbert: lot of money to get there. 150 00:06:53,010 --> 00:06:53,029 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. 151 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:56,029 Ben Gilbert: So Wesfarmers for instance, are spending a hundred million dollars 152 00:06:56,029 --> 00:06:59,630 Ben Gilbert: this year around data and analytics through their advanced analytics centre. 153 00:07:00,820 --> 00:07:04,250 Ben Gilbert: Super Retail Group spending over $ 10 million from what we 154 00:07:04,250 --> 00:07:06,859 Ben Gilbert: estimate on their loyalty program to get that right this year. So, 155 00:07:08,029 --> 00:07:10,820 Ben Gilbert: it costs money. So yes, from a longer term pace, 156 00:07:10,820 --> 00:07:12,660 Ben Gilbert: I think it will. And I think that's why you see something 157 00:07:12,760 --> 00:07:15,560 Ben Gilbert: like Woolworths trade at a premium, but near term I 158 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:18,140 Ben Gilbert: think some of the dynamics are going to be driving share prices 159 00:07:18,550 --> 00:07:20,830 Ben Gilbert: are going to be a little bit different. So for supermarket, for instance, 160 00:07:20,830 --> 00:07:24,440 Ben Gilbert: it's about inflation and it's going to be around how we see that inflation dynamic, 161 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:27,490 Ben Gilbert: play out. If they can maintain their margin for the 162 00:07:27,490 --> 00:07:30,590 Ben Gilbert: discretionary retail, it's going to be how Christmas plays out. For super retail, 163 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:33,950 Ben Gilbert: carrying a lot of stock into Christmas. Now it's going to be 164 00:07:33,950 --> 00:07:36,870 Ben Gilbert: a fantastic decision in the sense that they're going to get some strong 165 00:07:36,870 --> 00:07:39,250 Ben Gilbert: sales and good margin or it could cost if they 166 00:07:39,250 --> 00:07:41,960 Ben Gilbert: have to discount. Something like Domino's pizza, it's all about 167 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:44,410 Ben Gilbert: Japan at the moment. And if Japan can start to 168 00:07:44,410 --> 00:07:47,390 Ben Gilbert: see some growth, so yes, from a longer term lens, I 169 00:07:47,390 --> 00:07:49,180 Ben Gilbert: think that's what it's all about. And that's why they're going to 170 00:07:49,180 --> 00:07:51,500 Ben Gilbert: be trading at bigger multiples nearer term, it's going to 171 00:07:51,500 --> 00:07:54,550 Ben Gilbert: be some of their shorter term dynamics in, in their markets. 172 00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:57,970 Sean Aylmer: So Ben, what do you like? This is a $ 64 question among 173 00:07:57,970 --> 00:07:58,700 Sean Aylmer: the retailers. 174 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:01,710 Ben Gilbert: Yeah. Look from our perspective at the moment that the supermarkets, the ones 175 00:08:01,710 --> 00:08:03,530 Ben Gilbert: we think are looking pretty good. And the reason we 176 00:08:03,530 --> 00:08:06,020 Ben Gilbert: say that is, is that we've probably, it's a bit 177 00:08:06,020 --> 00:08:08,530 Ben Gilbert: like the banks, when you see a lot of the shorts and 178 00:08:08,530 --> 00:08:11,080 Ben Gilbert: the banks out there, we've probably from the analyst community 179 00:08:11,080 --> 00:08:14,500 Ben Gilbert: are probably called zero of the last four inflation cycles 180 00:08:14,500 --> 00:08:17,700 Ben Gilbert: we thought coming in food. And I think what we're 181 00:08:17,700 --> 00:08:19,790 Ben Gilbert: going to see this time is, its pretty clear that it's 182 00:08:19,790 --> 00:08:22,220 Ben Gilbert: coming because there's been changes around the grocery code of 183 00:08:22,590 --> 00:08:26,810 Ben Gilbert: conduct. You've got pretty clear dynamics in freight. You can 184 00:08:26,810 --> 00:08:29,110 Ben Gilbert: see input costs. You look at what's happening with coffee. You 185 00:08:29,110 --> 00:08:31,490 Ben Gilbert: look what's happening with steel prices, which goes into the 186 00:08:31,490 --> 00:08:33,940 Ben Gilbert: tin cans of tomatoes, et cetera, it's coming. 187 00:08:34,150 --> 00:08:34,309 Sean Aylmer: Yep. 188 00:08:34,590 --> 00:08:36,510 Ben Gilbert: And we're hearing it out there in the trade. And 189 00:08:36,510 --> 00:08:39,140 Ben Gilbert: the reality is, is that it's, it's the things that supermarkets 190 00:08:39,250 --> 00:08:42,100 Ben Gilbert: have to manage. They see inflation coming through, it drives 191 00:08:42,300 --> 00:08:44,530 Ben Gilbert: enormous amount of leverage for the P& L. So we 192 00:08:44,530 --> 00:08:47,530 Ben Gilbert: upgraded Coles recently to overweight. I think that's one that's 193 00:08:47,530 --> 00:08:49,760 Ben Gilbert: going to be performing pretty well. The other piece is that 194 00:08:49,760 --> 00:08:52,589 Ben Gilbert: Coles will benefit from the reopening, because they do have more 195 00:08:52,590 --> 00:08:55,449 Ben Gilbert: stores that are skewed towards CBD. So I think Cole's a 196 00:08:55,450 --> 00:08:57,910 Ben Gilbert: missing one. Metcash is another one that we like as well. 197 00:08:58,220 --> 00:09:01,650 Ben Gilbert: You've got housing in there too. Metcash might attempt branding 198 00:09:01,929 --> 00:09:04,570 Ben Gilbert: Home Timber and Hardware in Australia. What you're seeing at the 199 00:09:04,570 --> 00:09:07,510 Ben Gilbert: moment is that trade is very, very strong. So Metcash 200 00:09:07,550 --> 00:09:09,580 Ben Gilbert: is another one that we like as well. The one 201 00:09:09,580 --> 00:09:11,500 Ben Gilbert: that I thinks probably creating a bit more debate out 202 00:09:11,500 --> 00:09:11,771 Ben Gilbert: there at the moment is Dominoes. 203 00:09:11,771 --> 00:09:11,771 Sean Aylmer: Yep. 204 00:09:11,771 --> 00:09:14,630 Ben Gilbert: And it got knocked around a bit, the other, the 205 00:09:14,630 --> 00:09:17,929 Ben Gilbert: day on an update and the debate there is Japan. 206 00:09:18,130 --> 00:09:19,929 Ben Gilbert: And the other piece that's I think is right at 207 00:09:19,929 --> 00:09:22,590 Ben Gilbert: top of mind for Domino's at the moment is M& A. So look, I 208 00:09:22,590 --> 00:09:25,330 Ben Gilbert: think Domino's is an interesting one too. And one that we like as well. 209 00:09:25,690 --> 00:09:28,830 Sean Aylmer: What about the online plays? The Kogan. com, Temple and 210 00:09:28,830 --> 00:09:29,930 Sean Aylmer: Websters those types? 211 00:09:30,330 --> 00:09:33,439 Ben Gilbert: Yeah. Look, I think Temples, they good operators. They're going 212 00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:36,319 Ben Gilbert: to obviously get some benefits coming through from the housing side of 213 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:38,780 Ben Gilbert: things. I think the interesting thing in online now in 214 00:09:38,780 --> 00:09:41,010 Ben Gilbert: Australia is there's a lot of people playing in that space. 215 00:09:41,090 --> 00:09:41,230 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. 216 00:09:41,230 --> 00:09:42,880 Ben Gilbert: There's a lot of money that's been put in there. And 217 00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:46,500 Ben Gilbert: for all that we like to say that Amazon has 218 00:09:46,500 --> 00:09:49,110 Ben Gilbert: not necessarily been as successful as everyone thought. Look, I 219 00:09:49,110 --> 00:09:51,430 Ben Gilbert: think the reality is that it has actually been very successful. 220 00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:54,579 Ben Gilbert: So I think players like Temple and Webster, that aren't 221 00:09:54,580 --> 00:09:58,650 Ben Gilbert: necessarily going to be in as much direct competition as 222 00:09:58,650 --> 00:10:01,979 Ben Gilbert: Amazon because they don't want to necessarily be delivering as much furniture, we've 223 00:10:01,980 --> 00:10:02,410 Ben Gilbert: all positioned. 224 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:03,050 Sean Aylmer: Yep. 225 00:10:03,090 --> 00:10:05,360 Ben Gilbert: So there are ones, I think we're going to see more competition out there. 226 00:10:06,150 --> 00:10:08,540 Sean Aylmer: Okay. So when I have looked at retail over many years, 227 00:10:08,540 --> 00:10:11,540 Sean Aylmer: sort of as a reporter, so I'm far further removed 228 00:10:11,540 --> 00:10:14,449 Sean Aylmer: than you are. Management in retail seems to be really 229 00:10:14,450 --> 00:10:17,679 Sean Aylmer: critical. I mean, management's critical no matter where you are, but it just seems 230 00:10:17,679 --> 00:10:20,580 Sean Aylmer: to me in retail, good management really matters. 231 00:10:21,100 --> 00:10:26,679 Ben Gilbert: It does. And I think different businesses need different types of managers. So you look at apparel, for instance, 232 00:10:27,020 --> 00:10:28,720 Ben Gilbert: you have people that go and leave or people that leave the business from a design perspective 233 00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:33,360 Ben Gilbert: and you can see some pretty material impacts to trade, if 234 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:35,800 Ben Gilbert: they get the trend wrong. Similarly, you look at something 235 00:10:35,950 --> 00:10:38,179 Ben Gilbert: like grocery, you need to have a longer term lens, 236 00:10:38,179 --> 00:10:41,420 Ben Gilbert: think about how you, how you're managing the business, utilizing data, 237 00:10:41,420 --> 00:10:43,579 Ben Gilbert: et cetera. So look, it's very important. And I think 238 00:10:43,580 --> 00:10:46,280 Ben Gilbert: at the moment, we're pretty lucky in Australia. We've got some, 239 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:48,730 Ben Gilbert: some great managers that are running these businesses. And look, 240 00:10:48,730 --> 00:10:51,439 Ben Gilbert: I think probably one of those stories is, is Domino's 241 00:10:51,670 --> 00:10:54,300 Ben Gilbert: with Don Meij and you look at what he's been able to do 242 00:10:54,300 --> 00:10:58,940 Ben Gilbert: with that team and taking hold of businesses globally. You look at Germany, what they've done there 243 00:10:59,090 --> 00:10:59,451 Ben Gilbert: since taking that business over. 244 00:10:59,451 --> 00:11:03,110 Sean Aylmer: Have you ever met a more enthusiastic CEO than Don Meij? 245 00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:05,190 Ben Gilbert: Well, yes, but he's passionate and that's what you want. And 246 00:11:06,510 --> 00:11:10,410 Ben Gilbert: he lives and he breathes it. And the thing is, with Don and the 247 00:11:10,410 --> 00:11:14,030 Ben Gilbert: team there is that you look at what happens offshore and they 248 00:11:14,030 --> 00:11:16,709 Ben Gilbert: learn from Domino's Australia as well, which is amazing, because it's a 249 00:11:16,710 --> 00:11:17,550 Ben Gilbert: global success story. 250 00:11:17,950 --> 00:11:21,219 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. Yeah, sure is. Okay Ben, thank you for talking 251 00:11:21,220 --> 00:11:22,310 Sean Aylmer: to Fear and Greed this morning. 252 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:23,970 Ben Gilbert: No problem at all. Thanks very much for having me. 253 00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:26,839 Sean Aylmer: That was Ben Gilbert head of Australian research at Jarden. 254 00:11:27,309 --> 00:11:29,569 Sean Aylmer: This is the Fear and Greed daily interview, join me every 255 00:11:29,570 --> 00:11:32,050 Sean Aylmer: morning for the full Fear and Greed podcast with all 256 00:11:32,050 --> 00:11:34,469 Sean Aylmer: the business news you need to know. I'm Sean Aylmer, 257 00:11:34,809 --> 00:11:35,439 Sean Aylmer: enjoy your day.