WEBVTT - Liberal showdown over net zero

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<v Speaker 1>From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Christinamiot.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Monday, November ten, twenty twenty five. The Family Court

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<v Speaker 1>judge whose landmark ruling made puberty blockers more accessible to

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<v Speaker 1>gender dysphoric children says she now has doubts about her decision.

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<v Speaker 1>In twenty thirteen, former Family Court Chief Justice Diana Bryant

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<v Speaker 1>accepted expert evidence puberty blockers were a safe and reversible option,

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<v Speaker 1>but now she believes it's up to parliaments to put

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<v Speaker 1>regulations in place rather than relying on disputes before the courts.

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<v Speaker 1>Another day, another data hack, and this time the Australian

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<v Speaker 1>Defense Force is at the center of the breach. Blueprints

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<v Speaker 1>for high tech fighting vehicles might have been delivered into

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<v Speaker 1>the hands of adversaries who could use them to develop

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<v Speaker 1>effective countermeasures. Those exclusive stories alive right now at the

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<v Speaker 1>Australian dot com dot Au. The Liberal Party is bitterly

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<v Speaker 1>divided between those who believe they can save net zero

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<v Speaker 1>and those who wish it dead and buried. They'll meet

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<v Speaker 1>in Camber this week to decide on their policy once

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<v Speaker 1>and for all, and Susan Lee's leadership hangs in the balance.

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<v Speaker 1>That's today's episode.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I mean, I will do the right thing, but

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<v Speaker 2>my view is that we won't get to that because

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<v Speaker 2>I don't believe that my colleagues want Australia to be

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<v Speaker 2>ranked with those baddies.

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<v Speaker 1>This is the Opposition Housing spokesman Andrew Bragg on the

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<v Speaker 1>ABC's Insiders program on Sunday. He's talking about the issue

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<v Speaker 1>that's tearing the coalition apart, net zero, and he says

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<v Speaker 1>Australia will be in some pretty dicey company if his

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<v Speaker 1>party abandons a missions reduction scheme.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't think we can give up on it. Our

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<v Speaker 2>policy has to be to make it actually work. I

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<v Speaker 2>think we're all in leadership roles and it's important that

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<v Speaker 2>we don't give up on things that are hard.

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<v Speaker 1>But what would you do well, I.

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<v Speaker 2>Don't imagine that Australia is going to be in a

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<v Speaker 2>grouping with Azerbaijan, Iran and Syria.

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<v Speaker 1>Andrew Bragg is a believer in net zero. He and

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<v Speaker 1>his fellow moderates want the Liberals to commit to a

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<v Speaker 1>plan that would help us reach net zero emissions in

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<v Speaker 1>the second half of this century. The goal is to

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<v Speaker 1>remove as much greenhouse gas from the Earth's atmosphere as

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<v Speaker 1>we produce by transitioning to renewables and investing in reforestation

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<v Speaker 1>and carbon capture and storage. But some of Bragg's Liberal

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<v Speaker 1>Party colleagues, like Senator Sarah Henderson don't want to hear

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<v Speaker 1>about it.

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<v Speaker 3>I strongly believe that we need to resolve our position

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<v Speaker 3>very very quickly, as it's a I think well known.

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<v Speaker 3>I vehemently oppose NIT zero in all of its guys,

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<v Speaker 3>as it's sending our country backwards. It's causing enormous environmental

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<v Speaker 3>and economic harm. And the Nationals have done.

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<v Speaker 1>Up valconvene at a special Party room meeting in Canberra

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<v Speaker 1>on Wednesday to thrash it out.

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<v Speaker 4>So at the moment we're debating the interpretation of the

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<v Speaker 4>Paris Agreement and whether to retain two words in the

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<v Speaker 4>policy platform.

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<v Speaker 1>Greg Brown is the Australian's chief political correspondent.

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<v Speaker 4>In many ways, it's the fight they had to have.

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<v Speaker 4>It was the fight they really had to have in

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<v Speaker 4>the last term after they lost in twenty twenty two,

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<v Speaker 4>and they ended up not having any debates really, which

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<v Speaker 4>I think was a big mistake, and then they papered

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<v Speaker 4>over all their divisions with the nuclear policy if you're

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<v Speaker 4>a member. So that was something that the whole party

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<v Speaker 4>agreed with. So they just put aside the divisions on

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<v Speaker 4>netzer by twenty fifty and they all got behind this

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<v Speaker 4>nuclear agenda that they had. So really it's coming to

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<v Speaker 4>a head in a way that it is uglier than

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<v Speaker 4>it needed to be because it's had that waiting time,

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<v Speaker 4>and also the party's being led by a leader who

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<v Speaker 4>only just won a ballot. There is a lot of

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<v Speaker 4>anger within the Moderate faction, the supporters of Susan Lee

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<v Speaker 4>about her handling of this issue. They think that she

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<v Speaker 4>could have come out very quickly, similar to what she's

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<v Speaker 4>done with tax cuts, and said we will retain that

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<v Speaker 4>zero under my leadership, but not at any cost, and

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<v Speaker 4>we'll look at exactly how that will manifest itself. But

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<v Speaker 4>by leaving it completely open, they think that it allowed

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<v Speaker 4>the anti net zero forces to gain momentum and get

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<v Speaker 4>it to a stage where it's a very good chance

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<v Speaker 4>of being dumped. What we're reporting in the paper on

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<v Speaker 4>Monday is that the Moderate a proposing a way to

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<v Speaker 4>keep net zero, which is net zero the Australian Way,

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<v Speaker 4>which would not link net zero to a timeline and

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<v Speaker 4>would be very much about pragmatism and getting more gas

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<v Speaker 4>out of the ground and a technology agnostic approach and

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<v Speaker 4>get a sense of patriotism to it, that we're not

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<v Speaker 4>just going to go to net zero for the reasons

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<v Speaker 4>of Paris and the international community just for the sake

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<v Speaker 4>of it, that we will do it the Australian way.

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<v Speaker 4>But there is a view from Conservatives that this argument

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<v Speaker 4>has just been put too late and basically the party room,

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<v Speaker 4>according to what the Conservatives are say in the party room,

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<v Speaker 4>as pretty well coalesced around a decision to drop net zero.

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<v Speaker 1>Andrew Bragg said on Sunday he wouldn't abandon his principles

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<v Speaker 1>if his party abandons net zero or agrees to leave

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<v Speaker 1>the Paris Agreement. It's an international agreement signed by Australia

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<v Speaker 1>just under a decade ago to limit global warming to

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<v Speaker 1>two degrees celsius by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

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<v Speaker 4>So he's saying he'll quit the front bench. The question

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<v Speaker 4>was put to him about retaining net zero and leaving Paris,

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<v Speaker 4>and he it feels like he grabbed onto the Paris

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<v Speaker 4>element of that and said, yeah, well, get sure, I'll

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<v Speaker 4>leave the front bench if that's the case, but I

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<v Speaker 4>think there's a legitimate interpretation that he was asked about

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<v Speaker 4>net zero as well, and he said sure. I think

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<v Speaker 4>there is still a question about whether they come out,

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<v Speaker 4>they stay in Paris, but they drop net zero, whether

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<v Speaker 4>he does leave all together. But certainly there is a

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<v Speaker 4>fierce battle being plagued by the likes of himself, Dave

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<v Speaker 4>Sharma and other leading moderates who were working very hard

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<v Speaker 4>behind the scenes to keep net zero going. And I

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<v Speaker 4>think a real blow for them is it's not just

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<v Speaker 4>some of the leading conservatives who were open to net

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<v Speaker 4>zero who have now shifted, people like James Patterson and

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<v Speaker 4>Angus Taylor, they shifted their support away from net zero.

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<v Speaker 4>It's also some of the key powerbrokers that are crucial

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<v Speaker 4>for Susan Lee's leadership who are not in that faction.

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<v Speaker 4>So you've got Alex Hawk from the center right, and

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<v Speaker 4>then you've got James McGrath who's from the centrist faction

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<v Speaker 4>in Queensland. So the fact that it's multi factional now

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<v Speaker 4>I think is a bigger problem for the moderates.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, you've written for The Australian that Andrew Bragg is

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<v Speaker 1>a key supporter of Susan Lee's what does the future

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<v Speaker 1>hold for her if she can't hold on to the

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<v Speaker 1>people who do back her much less the people who don't.

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<v Speaker 4>Well. I think this is a crucial question because some

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<v Speaker 4>in the Moderates are worried that not only will they

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<v Speaker 4>lose net zero, but if they then cause too much

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<v Speaker 4>havoc for Susan Lee and then they lose a leader

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<v Speaker 4>who's typically sympathetic to them as well, and all they

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<v Speaker 4>end up with is no net zero and Angus Taylor

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<v Speaker 4>as leader, the Moderates pull their support to her all together,

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<v Speaker 4>I think is unlikely. However, I think no matter how

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<v Speaker 4>this goes on Wednesday, Susan Lee's leadership will face significant strain.

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<v Speaker 4>It's already under a lot of strain, and I think

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<v Speaker 4>the Conservatives are threatening mayhem if there's any retention at all,

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<v Speaker 4>even in a vague way of net zero. So I

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<v Speaker 4>think she's got a lot of tough days ahead.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up. Does the conservative math on net zero add up?

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<v Speaker 1>Senator Sarah Henderson said on Friday the opposition's support of

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<v Speaker 1>net zero has hurt them in the last few elections.

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<v Speaker 1>She's been one of the vocal advocates of dumping net

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<v Speaker 1>zero policy going into Wednesday's meeting, But the Climate two

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<v Speaker 1>hundred backed Teal Independence have gone from strength to strength

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<v Speaker 1>in that same time, so does what she is saying

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<v Speaker 1>ring true. Are Australian voters genuinely going to accept a

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<v Speaker 1>no net zero position from either party?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, it's difficult to reconcile what people like Sarah Henderson

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<v Speaker 4>and Andrew Hasty and Just Enterprise say based on the

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<v Speaker 4>results from twenty twenty two, in twenty twenty five and

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<v Speaker 4>the rise of the tials and all that. However, looking forward,

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<v Speaker 4>there is globally a change in sentiment around this issue.

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<v Speaker 4>The OECD put out a report just on Friday showing

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<v Speaker 4>that there has been a slow down in global action

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<v Speaker 4>on climate. We've seen Donald Trump pull out of Paris,

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<v Speaker 4>We're seeing anti net zero parties doing very well in

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<v Speaker 4>the polls. Nigel Fras is doing well in the polls

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<v Speaker 4>in Britain, and the Conservative Party have dumped the commitment

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<v Speaker 4>to net zero altogether. So I think moving forward there

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<v Speaker 4>are plenty of political headaches potentially in dropping that zero,

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<v Speaker 4>but closer to the next election twenty twenty eight, it

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<v Speaker 4>will become increasingly clear. I think that Australia will not

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<v Speaker 4>meet US twenty thirty target and the transition will continue

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<v Speaker 4>to be messy. What that means for power prices, I

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<v Speaker 4>think is they're probably going to keep going up as well,

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<v Speaker 4>and that will leave I think the Coalition with a

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<v Speaker 4>very clear argument that Labor's committed to net zero but

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<v Speaker 4>it's not hitting any of its targets. All it means

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<v Speaker 4>is a lot of expense for voters. We will do

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<v Speaker 4>it another way. While there is risk politically in it,

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<v Speaker 4>I can see a pathway to success, but I think

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<v Speaker 4>it pretty much means it's very difficult to win back

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<v Speaker 4>those old blue ribbon seats in Melbourne and Sydney.

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<v Speaker 1>And after Wednesday, what then.

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<v Speaker 4>I just think they need to get this resolve before Christmas.

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<v Speaker 4>They can't see this blood letting go on into next

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<v Speaker 4>year and they need to start putting the pressure back

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<v Speaker 4>on the government and the government they're twenty thirty five

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<v Speaker 4>target landed pretty well. Really, it's a big range, sixty

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<v Speaker 4>two to seventy percent. But as I said, the difficulties

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<v Speaker 4>for the government in this will actually be delivering on it,

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<v Speaker 4>and that's where there will be pressure for Labor. So

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<v Speaker 4>at the moment it looks like Labour's in a pretty

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<v Speaker 4>unassailable position. But when you look at both this issue,

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<v Speaker 4>the budget the economy, I think if the Libs can

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<v Speaker 4>sort this out and then act with relative stability going

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<v Speaker 4>on into next year, I think there are opportunities to

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<v Speaker 4>land some blows on the government.

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<v Speaker 1>Greg Brown is The Australian's chief political correspondent. You can

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<v Speaker 1>check out his reporting and analysis right now at the

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<v Speaker 1>Australian dot com dot au