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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed Q and A, where we

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Speaker 1: ask an answer question about business, investing, economics, politics and more.

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Speaker 1: A'm Michael Thompson and every Monday morning we're joined by

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Speaker 1: economists Stephen could Cools to look at the week ahead.

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Speaker 1: You'll find him at the kook dot com. That's t

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Speaker 1: h e k o uk dot com and on ex

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Speaker 1: using the handle the Kirk. Stephen, Good morning, Good morning, Michael.

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Speaker 1: I don't know whether you'd classify this as a bumper week,

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Speaker 1: but there's plenty coming up this week, and I want

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Speaker 1: to talk to you about wages. I want to talk

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Speaker 1: to you about RBA minutes. But let's start with the

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Speaker 1: labor Force startup because that's coming out on Thursday of

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Speaker 1: this week, and it is really important as to what

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Speaker 1: the RBA is going to do next and also whether

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Speaker 1: they'll write to do what they did a couple of

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Speaker 1: weeks ago.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, top shelf week, this one that everything that comes

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Speaker 2: out will be really important. And yeah, in terms of

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Speaker 2: those labor force numbers. And when we think back two

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Speaker 2: weeks ago almost that the RBA hiked interestrates, one of

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Speaker 2: the reasons, probably not the predominant one, but one of

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Speaker 2: the reasons that sort of got overlooked a little bit

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Speaker 2: was last month we had sixty five thousand increasing employment,

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Speaker 2: the unemployment rate fell to four point one percent, and

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Speaker 2: that sort of spoot the RBA many in the marks

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Speaker 2: thin gee, maybe the economy, maybe the labor markets stronger

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Speaker 2: than we thought. Now admittedly, that followed I think it

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Speaker 2: was four months where employment was basically flat. So this

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Speaker 2: week we see the number this Thursday on employment to

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Speaker 2: validate that plus sixty five thousand, and to validate where

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Speaker 2: the unemployment did fall to four point one Because as

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Speaker 2: we know, and as listeners have heard time and time

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Speaker 2: and time again, the monthly numbers are incredibly volatile. You often,

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Speaker 2: not always, but often get a big jump up and

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Speaker 2: a big jump down. Next month they're a big ball

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Speaker 2: and then a big jump.

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Speaker 1: So there is a chance that there could be a correction.

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Speaker 2: There's a chance, And in fact, the latest consensus number

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Speaker 2: that I saw was about a plus ten thousand, which

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Speaker 2: sounds quite weak, but after and in the context of

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Speaker 2: a sixty five increase in one thousand increased in employment,

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Speaker 2: that's actually would be a solid result. Unemployment tick back

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Speaker 2: up to four point two, so it will increase, but

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Speaker 2: still be at a relatively low level, and of course,

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Speaker 2: of course the prospect of a number being well away

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Speaker 2: from that consensus, which direction we're not sure, will actually

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Speaker 2: be very important, as you alluded, to sort of validate

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Speaker 2: whether the RBA did the right thing. And the only

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Speaker 2: reason I mentioned that just now, very briefly, is that

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Speaker 2: if we do find that the plus sixty five turns

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Speaker 2: out to be a minus fifty and the only plot

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Speaker 2: rate kicks back up to four point four just on

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Speaker 2: that December January seasonally adjusting and all that other stuff,

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Speaker 2: then of course there'll be a bit of a question

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Speaker 2: mark about will future interest rate decisions anyway.

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Speaker 1: Okay, the other big thing that's happening this week that's

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Speaker 1: coming out this week and something that the RBA would

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Speaker 1: pay very close attention to as well, wages. The wage

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Speaker 1: price index comes out, and this question of whether wages

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Speaker 1: are still well contained. Maybe let's start with the basics explained.

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Speaker 1: Maybe the wage price index exactly what it is measuring.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the wage price index is a measure of changes

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Speaker 2: in wages for the same job. So for example, it

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Speaker 2: does not capture the person who gets a promotion and

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Speaker 2: does a different job. So if you go and get

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Speaker 2: a ten percent pay rise because you have changed jobs,

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Speaker 2: you've got a promotion that is not in the wage

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Speaker 2: price index. What it is is wages for a barista,

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Speaker 2: a nurse, a teacher, a sheet metal worker. A lot

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Speaker 2: of it's to do with like for like jobs, because

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Speaker 2: if you're getting a pay rise and a promotion, it's

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Speaker 2: because you're doing more responsible, more senior stuff, and you're

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Speaker 2: entitled to get pay rises because of that. Shot. So

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Speaker 2: it's really just a like for like type measure of

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Speaker 2: wages on similar occupations.

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Speaker 1: And I'm assuming then that would just be kind of

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Speaker 1: base wages without any of the extra over time anything

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Speaker 1: like that. Is it is purely like for like to

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Speaker 1: allow for it to be measured across consistently, across a

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Speaker 1: whole stack of people doing the same job.

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Speaker 2: And on a cost now's work basis. Yes, so for

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Speaker 2: that thirty eight hours or whatever it is that it's

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Speaker 2: in that particular segment of the economy, that particular industry. Yes,

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Speaker 2: it's a very sort of clean measure of true wage pressure.

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Speaker 2: So in a sense, it's not what you and I

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Speaker 2: earn or the people earned, because if you get a

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Speaker 2: promotion and you get a ten percent pay rise. Well,

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Speaker 2: clearly your house of income's got up by ten percent

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Speaker 2: less tats. So there's this issue that's there that I

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Speaker 2: think the RBA governor has been alluding to in recent

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Speaker 2: conversations too, that it's probably the better indicator of what's

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Speaker 2: happening to wages to the extent that they influence inflation,

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Speaker 2: rather than household income, which has actually been doing a

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Speaker 2: little bit better than this way to price index over

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Speaker 2: the last couple of years. And so sort of just

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Speaker 2: putting a bit of a damp squib on some of

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Speaker 2: the doom sayers out there who say, oh, wages growth

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Speaker 2: is very weak. Sure it's not strong, but it's not

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Speaker 2: as weak as you hear from just the wage price

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Speaker 2: index measure.

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Speaker 1: Okay, well, what do we expect to see then this week?

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Speaker 1: And I suppose what's the risk here? What level does

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Speaker 1: it need to be above so to perhaps concern the RBA.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, for the last couple of quarters it has

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Speaker 2: ease because it peaked at about four point three percent

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Speaker 2: early in twenty twenty five, it came back down a

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Speaker 2: little bit to about three point four percent, and I

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Speaker 2: think the market's looking for a dead flat a zero

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Speaker 2: point eight quarter on quarter increase leading to an annual

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Speaker 2: eye of about three point four percent. And I think

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Speaker 2: if we get a three point three, three point four,

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Speaker 2: three point five, fine through to the keeper, not a

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Speaker 2: major concern. If we get a three point six, which

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Speaker 2: requires a one percent increase in the quarterly one point

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Speaker 2: three percent increase in quarterly wage price index, you might

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Speaker 2: just get a little bit of concern that wages growth

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Speaker 2: is picking up, particularly in the context of productivity being week.

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Speaker 2: Nothing wrong with wage increases, don't get me wrong. I

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Speaker 2: like wage increases, don't we all, But from a RBA

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Speaker 2: inflation management perspective, a big wage increase can only be

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Speaker 2: validated if there's a productivity component in that wage increase.

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Speaker 2: And as we know, we've been hearing ad nauseam for

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Speaker 2: a long time now, we have a pretty poor productivity

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Speaker 2: record here in Australia.

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Speaker 1: All right, then to go from that, and really I'm

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Speaker 1: just using this as an opportunity to understand everything on

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Speaker 1: the wages topic. This is basically an economics class for me.

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Speaker 1: Wage price spiral, right, we hear about this. It's kind

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Speaker 1: of one of those those terms that gets tossed around

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Speaker 1: and it is something to be feared. How does one

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Speaker 1: get into it and what's the outcome?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, fabulous question, because we haven't really had one in

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Speaker 2: Australia for for decades. Frankly, it's sort of this lingering

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Speaker 2: memory of the seventies, eighties and even the early nineties

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Speaker 2: about this wage price spiral and the way that it works.

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Speaker 2: On why it was so bad all those years ago

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Speaker 2: was when a business passed on a high wage increase

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Speaker 2: that had no component of productivity. So just say your

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Speaker 2: friendly boss gave you a ten percent pay rise because

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Speaker 2: you were adamant that you could get one. They would

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Speaker 2: cover that labor cost increase was the cost of business

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Speaker 2: to them, and if they wanted to maintain even steady

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Speaker 2: margins and steady profits, they'd increase their selling prices to

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Speaker 2: cover your wage. Higher selling prices this inflation. And then

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Speaker 2: as a work you'd see this higher inflation and say, hey,

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Speaker 2: my cost of living has gone up so much. Can

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Speaker 2: you give me ase? And if the boss was in

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Speaker 2: a protectular or a sheltered industry without much competition and

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Speaker 2: productivity was lousy, yeah, we'll give you the pay rise,

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Speaker 2: and so the spiral goes. Now that was broken largely

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Speaker 2: in the nineties because we had to move away from

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Speaker 2: automatic wage indexation. Many people understand, I wouldn't understand what

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Speaker 2: that is, but that was back in the day. Whenever

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Speaker 2: the CPI, the consumer price index inflation rate came out,

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Speaker 2: it was put on wages regardless of productivity. Bad, bad bad.

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Speaker 2: I think the Kenning government got rid of that with

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Speaker 2: Bill Kelty from the ACTU back in the day. So

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Speaker 2: now we do have a strong tendency to have wage

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Speaker 2: increases linked to productivity and linked to the tightness of

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Speaker 2: the labor market. If your skills are in demand, fine,

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Speaker 2: like any like any commodity, labor or widgets. If there's

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Speaker 2: a shortage of supply in a hot demard, you put

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Speaker 2: up your put up your hand for a price rise.

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Speaker 2: In that case it's the price of labor. Your wage

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Speaker 2: goes up for those industries that they've got a shortage

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Speaker 2: of skilled workers.

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Speaker 1: All right. One last question before we leave wages, real wages.

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Speaker 1: The RBA is updated forecasts show real wages I think

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Speaker 1: going back ackwards until mid twenty twenty seven. How does

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Speaker 1: that play out? How does that affect US businesses as well,

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Speaker 1: and how do we avoid that.

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Speaker 2: The big impact is on us consumers. We consumers are

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Speaker 2: not silly. In fact, we're very savvy when it comes

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Speaker 2: to our finances. I think it's fair to say and

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Speaker 2: that if you're getting, as to say, a three and

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Speaker 2: a half percent wage increase, you're not getting a promotion.

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Speaker 2: You're just one of these people that gets the wage

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Speaker 2: price index increase three and a half percent and inflation's

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Speaker 2: three and a half percent. You know that you're purchasing

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Speaker 2: power when you pay your electricity bill, when you go

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Speaker 2: to the grocery shop, you pay your insurance, you fill

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Speaker 2: up your car with patrol, you pay your counsel rates.

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Speaker 2: You've got nothing left over, even though I've got to

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Speaker 2: pay rise. But it's all being eaten up. Then, of course,

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Speaker 2: the ability of an acceleration in consumer spending, an acceleration

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Speaker 2: and economicctivity is severely curtailed. And that's why we have

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Speaker 2: the inflation target at two and a half percent to

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Speaker 2: allow for a little bit real wage increase. And if

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Speaker 2: you're a business person and people are holding back there

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Speaker 2: spending in your shop because they're allocating more of their

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Speaker 2: income just to cover the price increase, not demanding a

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Speaker 2: greater volume of what you produce and what you sell.

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Speaker 2: Then the economy just muddels along and jobs don't get created,

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Speaker 2: and you don't make a whole lot of money in

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Speaker 2: your business, you don't do a lot of capex, and

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Speaker 2: we just get into this you know, poor productivity, low

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Speaker 2: capex funk, where we just don't get that dynamism that

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Speaker 2: as an economist I would love to see.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, one, we are well and truly out of

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Speaker 1: time because I have, as I said, use this opportunity

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Speaker 1: for my own education, and I make no apologies for

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Speaker 1: that either, Stephen. The RBA minutes are coming out this week.

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Speaker 1: This is from the meeting two weeks ago where the

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Speaker 1: interest rates were hiked. Are you expecting to see any

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Speaker 1: surprises because obviously there is so much transparent. See we've

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Speaker 1: had We've got the press conference straight after the straight

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Speaker 1: after the meeting, and then since then we've also had

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Speaker 1: Reserve Bank Governor Michelle Bulloch appearing twice in Canberra, Plenty

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Speaker 1: of opportunity for questions. Is there anything more going to

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Speaker 1: come out of these minutes?

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Speaker 2: Fantastic point the short answers. I doubt it, because the

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Speaker 2: February meeting where they announced the raid, of course, came

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Speaker 2: out with a Statement of Monetary Policy, so that seventy

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Speaker 2: sixty seventy page update on every minute detail of the economy,

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Speaker 2: including their forecasts, you said the governor. She gave a

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Speaker 2: press conference afterwards. And yes, once before the House of

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Speaker 2: Reps two weeks ago, once before the Senate last week.

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Speaker 2: We've had doctor Andrew Houser, the Deputy Governor, giving a

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Speaker 2: fireside chat the other day where he was sort of

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Speaker 2: fupping the table about inflation and all the rest of it.

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Speaker 2: So I can't imagine what would be in the minutes

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Speaker 2: that hasn't been said by the Governor or, included in

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Speaker 2: the Statement of Monetary Policy or covering off by the

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Speaker 2: Deputy Governor. So I'll look at them. Is a little

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Speaker 2: snippet of something there, but I think we'll be focusing

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Speaker 2: more on that wage price index, yeah, and more on

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Speaker 2: the labor force numbers for sure.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, as you said, a top shelf week, Stephen, thank

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Speaker 1: you for your time this morning.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: That was a kind of a Stephen cook Coolest, better

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Speaker 1: known as the Kook. You can find him at the

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Speaker 1: kook dot com and follow him on x as well

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Speaker 1: using the handle of the Kook. I'm Michael Thompson and

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Speaker 1: the Spear and Greek Q and a