WEBVTT - What Iran’s ‘pirates’ will do next

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<v Speaker 1>From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Tuesday, July fourteen, twenty twenty six. Investors are flocking

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<v Speaker 1>to new bills, an unintended consequence of the Albanese government's

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<v Speaker 1>property tax shakeup, and lenders say they're increasingly competing with

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<v Speaker 1>first home buyers while seeking to avoid higher taxes on

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<v Speaker 1>established properties. Just two states could participate in the federal

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<v Speaker 1>government's much vaunted national Firearm by Back scheme, which Anthony

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<v Speaker 1>Albanesi announced after December's Bondai massacre. New South Wales Premier

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<v Speaker 1>Chris Minn says his state and the Act are likely

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<v Speaker 1>the only two participants as the jurisdictions brawl over who's

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<v Speaker 1>paying and how much. Those stories alive now at the

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<v Speaker 1>Australian dot Com dot au. Donald Trump's peace in the

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<v Speaker 1>Middle East has failed for a second time, with war

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<v Speaker 1>restarting with Iran to match the active hostilities still raging

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<v Speaker 1>in Gaza. Now the battered Iranian regime is asserting its

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<v Speaker 1>control of the Strait of Hall Moors. So is this

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<v Speaker 1>modern day piracy something we just have to get used to,

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<v Speaker 1>or is there a way back? Chief International correspondent Cameron

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<v Speaker 1>Stewart is here in just a moment.

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<v Speaker 2>As fresh strikes are exchanged across the goal for Iran

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<v Speaker 2>has declared the Strait of holl Mooves is closed.

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<v Speaker 3>Prompting a major military response from President Trump and the Pentagon.

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<v Speaker 1>The US hitting more than one hundred and seventy targets

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<v Speaker 1>in Iran over two days. The latest round of air

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<v Speaker 1>strikes was triggered by Iran firing on another commercial ship

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<v Speaker 1>crossing the Strait of Horror Moves across the Golf Region.

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<v Speaker 1>Nations are taking emergency action following a fresh round of

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<v Speaker 1>US strikes on Iran. Cameron Stewart is the Australian's chief

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<v Speaker 1>international correspondent camp. Just twenty five days ago, we were

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<v Speaker 1>talking about peace in the Middle East. Now we seem

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<v Speaker 1>to be back in a war. Is this actually an

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<v Speaker 1>active war now?

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<v Speaker 3>I think we are seeing a very fast ascent into

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<v Speaker 3>the war. Clear. Yeah. I think it's hard to argue

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<v Speaker 3>anything but the fact that the memorandum of understanding that

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<v Speaker 3>was signed between Iran and the US in June is

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<v Speaker 3>now dead.

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<v Speaker 1>Here's what Donald Trump said about that at last week's

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<v Speaker 1>NATO summit in Turkey.

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<v Speaker 4>I don't want to deal with them, and with there's gum.

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<v Speaker 3>You know what scum is. There's gum, there's seck people.

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<v Speaker 3>There's something wrong with them. They're cuckoo. Sorry, as I'm

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<v Speaker 3>concerning yourself, Iran has shown absolutely no interest in seriously

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<v Speaker 3>negotiating issues such as the changes to its nuclear program

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<v Speaker 3>that the United States wants, and more particularly the free

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<v Speaker 3>passenger ships through the Strait of Hum was repeatedly. Iran

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<v Speaker 3>has talked behind the scenes doing negotiations of the US

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<v Speaker 3>while actually firing on ships coming through the Strait of UMUS. So,

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<v Speaker 3>the Trump administration was very patient for a long time,

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<v Speaker 3>but now it appears to have lost that patience. Donald

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<v Speaker 3>Trump has been calling the Iranian leadership scum. The War

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<v Speaker 3>Secretary Hexeth has been saying that they will pay the

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<v Speaker 3>price for breaching the conditions of this ceasefire.

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<v Speaker 4>No one sails from the Street of Hormuz to anywhere

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<v Speaker 4>in the world without the permission of the United States

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<v Speaker 4>Navy to the regime in.

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<v Speaker 3>Tran, So, I think we are seeing a very fast

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<v Speaker 3>descent back into war.

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<v Speaker 1>Was there another way through this for the United States

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<v Speaker 1>cam that didn't involve bombarding Iran?

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<v Speaker 3>Look, I mean the Trump administration has tried everything possible

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<v Speaker 3>to get the plumaceed to work. It really stretched the

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<v Speaker 3>boundaries of language in actually getting the MAU signed in

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<v Speaker 3>the first place. But Iran has not acted in good

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<v Speaker 3>faith at all. And no, I don't think stration actually

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<v Speaker 3>has much choice now but to continue the conflict in

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<v Speaker 3>some form. The great question is what form that is

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<v Speaker 3>going to be. Simply because the diplomatic channel is effectively redundant,

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, Aurand just shows no sign of actually adhering

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<v Speaker 3>to any sort of negotiations, and so it really doesn't

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<v Speaker 3>give the US much choice to aill. I mean, they

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<v Speaker 3>could just walk away, but that would be hugely damaging

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<v Speaker 3>for Trump politically, I mean, he would be seen as

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<v Speaker 3>effectively seed in control of the straitup Moors, where twenty

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<v Speaker 3>percent of the world's oil transited through before the war

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<v Speaker 3>to Iran. That is deadly for him politically. Not to

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<v Speaker 3>mention for the global economy, of course, with the international

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<v Speaker 3>energy crisis that it's causing. It's the price of Brent

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<v Speaker 3>crude oil, it's the international benchmark obviously has shot up.

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<v Speaker 1>Overnights gone up five percent, well down from the one

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and twenty odd which is where it.

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<v Speaker 3>Was a few months ago. But yeah, so, I think

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<v Speaker 3>the two options that the Trump administration has, neither of

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<v Speaker 3>which are palatable, are to continue with this limited war

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<v Speaker 3>that's going on at the moment, or go back into

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<v Speaker 3>a full scale conflict.

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<v Speaker 1>So do you think the Iranian regime just kind of

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<v Speaker 1>outplayed Donald Trump by pretending to be genuine about the

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<v Speaker 1>memorandum of understanding and in fact they never had any

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<v Speaker 1>intention of giving up control of the Strait?

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<v Speaker 3>I think so. I mean, this is very much the

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<v Speaker 3>Iranian playbook. They are masters at talking about deals forever

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<v Speaker 3>and ever and not actually adhering to them. They have

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<v Speaker 3>made a calculation here, Claire that the Stradapilm was is

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<v Speaker 3>not really gettable by the US with military force, without

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<v Speaker 3>such an expenditure of ground troops and other military commitments

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<v Speaker 3>that would lead to US casualties that would rebound on

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<v Speaker 3>Donald Trump. I think the Uranian regime thinks they have

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<v Speaker 3>the pardon the partner, the Trump card here in the

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<v Speaker 3>sense that if they try and levy tolls of ships

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<v Speaker 3>going through the Strati films, which is what they're trying

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<v Speaker 3>to do, they calculate they can make some forty billion

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<v Speaker 3>dollars of revenue a year, and no one can particularly

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<v Speaker 3>stop them doing that at this moment. So their calculation

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<v Speaker 3>is that it's worth the gamble to try and keep

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<v Speaker 3>the straight closed, and that's what they're doing.

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<v Speaker 1>Ken, what do we know about Israel's role in this

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<v Speaker 1>part of the conflict, given that it's been such an

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<v Speaker 1>integral player up until now.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, Israel's role will become really interesting and really important

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<v Speaker 3>at this minute, because if Thismau, as Trump says, is dead,

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<v Speaker 3>then that also means that Israel no longer has the

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<v Speaker 3>technical restrictions if you like that it were imposed on it,

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<v Speaker 3>especially by the US in not attacking Hesba in Lebanon.

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<v Speaker 3>We've seen recently some restraint on both sides there between

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<v Speaker 3>the Israelis and the Hezbla in Lebanon. But of course

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<v Speaker 3>the Mau was predicated, according to the Iranians, on Israel

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<v Speaker 3>and stopping its attacks on Hespala. Now, if the Mau

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<v Speaker 3>is dead, I think Benjamin et Nyahu will see the

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<v Speaker 3>breaks if you like, being lifted off Israel in all areas,

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<v Speaker 3>as far as its conflict with Hersbela goes in Lebanon.

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<v Speaker 3>So this could lead to another flare up in Lebanon.

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<v Speaker 3>It's two early, say, but certainly that is one of

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<v Speaker 3>the side ripples of this deal collapsing.

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<v Speaker 1>If we zoom right out cam and look back at

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<v Speaker 1>where this conflict started. Of course, you know, you could

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<v Speaker 1>start two thousand years ago, probably, but in this phase

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<v Speaker 1>of tension between Iran and Israel and the United States,

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<v Speaker 1>we look back at October seven, twenty twenty three, Iran's

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<v Speaker 1>militia in Hamas was attacking Israel. Iran's other militia, Hesbala,

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<v Speaker 1>was also attacking Israel from the north. We've seen nearly

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<v Speaker 1>three years of conflict now that's then brought the United

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<v Speaker 1>States very firmly into a hot war in the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 1>And now we're all talking about the Strait of Hormares,

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<v Speaker 1>which previously was something that I didn't know much about. Overall,

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<v Speaker 1>Would we say that Iran's strategy has worked of provoking

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<v Speaker 1>Israel and therefore provoking the United States.

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<v Speaker 3>I think it's more complicated than that. Iran has certainly

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<v Speaker 3>had some big losses in the conflicts that have erupted,

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<v Speaker 3>as you say, since October seven, twenty twenty three, with

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<v Speaker 3>the terrible ascu of israelis by Hamas, I mean Hamas,

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<v Speaker 3>one of Iran's proxies, has been orbit destroyed, very weakened.

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<v Speaker 3>They only have control of half of Gaza now at

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<v Speaker 3>this moment, so that has been a blow to Iran

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<v Speaker 3>to see Hamas so weakened. Hezbollah in Lebanon, while this

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<v Speaker 3>will constitute itself to some degree, is still a much

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<v Speaker 3>weaker force than it was before October seven because of

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<v Speaker 3>all those repeated Israeli attacks on it in recent years.

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<v Speaker 3>And also Syria, the Syrian regime has collapsed as well,

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<v Speaker 3>so Iran has lost another ally there and so really

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<v Speaker 3>Iran's position since October seven has not been strengthened. The

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<v Speaker 3>only good news Iran has had since October seven has

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<v Speaker 3>been this war with the US, in the sense that

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<v Speaker 3>while it's still being very damaged, I mean, don't underestimate

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<v Speaker 3>the damage to Iran's military across the board from those

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<v Speaker 3>US and Israeli attacks.

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<v Speaker 2>Breaking news this morning, Israeli officials say the supreme leader

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<v Speaker 2>of Iran has been killed. Our after the US and

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<v Speaker 2>Israel joined forces in a joint attack to topple the

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<v Speaker 2>country's regime. American stealth bombers and submarines launched a massive,

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<v Speaker 2>coordinated attack targeting three key nuclear sites.

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<v Speaker 1>US President Donald Trump called the operation a spectacular military success.

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<v Speaker 3>Also, its economy has been hugely damaged as well, but

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<v Speaker 3>it has an absolute trump card in the control of

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<v Speaker 3>the Stradahim was something which Donald Trump was warned about

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<v Speaker 3>by his chiefs could happen, and he ignored it. And

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<v Speaker 3>they've taken control. And this has really been the best

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<v Speaker 3>news around has had for years. And it may be

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<v Speaker 3>something that they can actually leverage for a long time.

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<v Speaker 3>And that is exactly what they are trying to do.

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<v Speaker 3>They've rolled the dice on this and they're going to

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<v Speaker 3>make sure they keep the stradup from us. There's no

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<v Speaker 3>sign of le They are going to keep it up without.

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<v Speaker 1>A fight coming up. Does the rest of the world

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<v Speaker 1>just have to get used to paying for the use

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<v Speaker 1>of the strait of horn wars? Donald Trump might be

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<v Speaker 1>willing to die on this hill, to die on this

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<v Speaker 1>point of principle about the straight of home wars, but

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<v Speaker 1>the rest of the world just needs their economies to

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<v Speaker 1>get rolling again. Is there a possibility do you think

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<v Speaker 1>that we're going to see Iran essentially in control of

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<v Speaker 1>this straight and shipping companies paying a fee to get through.

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<v Speaker 3>It may eventually be the case, because really Iran doesn't

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<v Speaker 3>have to do much to stop the straight At the moment,

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<v Speaker 3>the US is claiming the straight is open, Irans has closed.

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<v Speaker 3>It's almost a semantic argument there, because really the fact

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<v Speaker 3>is that no ships will go through under such uncertainty.

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<v Speaker 3>Insurance companies won't cover them. The risks are too great.

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<v Speaker 3>But of course Iran has to be a bit careful here.

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<v Speaker 3>If they continue to close the straight of homes for

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<v Speaker 3>the foreseeable future for too long, are you're going to

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<v Speaker 3>see the countries in the Gulf especially just seek other

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<v Speaker 3>ways to get that oil out of They were already

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<v Speaker 3>seeing Saudi Arabia try overland roots. I mean, there's going

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<v Speaker 3>to be alternatives that are being created because Iran's controlling

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<v Speaker 3>the straight of homes so around these do Platt's hand

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<v Speaker 3>fairly carefully here, but they certainly seem at this minute

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<v Speaker 3>to be very determined to get some sort of toiling

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<v Speaker 3>system going through the strait which will raise revenue for them.

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<v Speaker 3>Of course, Donald Trump, Marco Rubio Pittex have said that's

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<v Speaker 3>absolutely not on. And so this is going to be

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<v Speaker 3>the standoff that we're going to see really developed in

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<v Speaker 3>the next couple of weeks.

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<v Speaker 4>Iran's battered military, the IOGC specifically has been reduced to

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<v Speaker 4>a gang of pirates for the flag. They cloak their

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<v Speaker 4>aggression in slogans, but the world now sees them for

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<v Speaker 4>what they are, criminals on the high seas.

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<v Speaker 1>What about those Golf States. Earlier this year, when Iran

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<v Speaker 1>started firing ballistic missiles on the Golf States, purportedly at

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<v Speaker 1>just American assets in those states, but effectively crippling all

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<v Speaker 1>those economies and all those airports that are very much

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<v Speaker 1>connected to the West. Now Iran is warning the Golf

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<v Speaker 1>States not to get involved. We did see a moment

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<v Speaker 1>back then where potentially the Golf States might sort of

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<v Speaker 1>shift their allegiances over more towards the Israeli end of

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<v Speaker 1>the spectrum.

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<v Speaker 3>What happens now, It's a really interesting dilemma that the

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<v Speaker 3>Golf States have now, I mean clear, if this war

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<v Speaker 3>is going to be an ongoing conflict, which at this

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<v Speaker 3>moment it does look like it will be, that is

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<v Speaker 3>a big problem for the Golf States. You know, as

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<v Speaker 3>you say, airlines of the world, including Australia, come through

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<v Speaker 3>those Golf States. They sell themselves as islands, oasis islands,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, in the middle of the Middle East, and

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<v Speaker 3>their whole brand, if you like, goes down the drain.

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<v Speaker 3>If there is a continuous threat of attacks from Iran,

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<v Speaker 3>and I think these states are going to have to

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<v Speaker 3>consider what the nature of their alliance with the US is.

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<v Speaker 3>Of course, because the US has a military basis in

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<v Speaker 3>most of those golf states and they can't just get

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<v Speaker 3>rid of those military bases. It's not an easy thing

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<v Speaker 3>for them to do politically. Yet at the same time,

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<v Speaker 3>there'll be a temptation at some stage, I think if

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<v Speaker 3>this conflict kept going clear stranger as it may seem,

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<v Speaker 3>for these golf sets to try and sign a non

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<v Speaker 3>aggression pack, if you like, with Iran to simply stop

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<v Speaker 3>those attacks happening. It's a very difficult position that they're in,

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<v Speaker 3>and they're going to be sandwiched increasingly between the US

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<v Speaker 3>and Iran, and Trump will put a lot of pressure

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<v Speaker 3>on them to side, of course with the US.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, Cameron, I don't think it'll be the last time

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<v Speaker 1>we talk about this. Thank you very much for your.

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<v Speaker 3>Time, pleasure.

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<v Speaker 1>Cameron Stewart is The Australian's chief international correspondent. You can

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<v Speaker 1>Follow this story and the latest from the Middle East

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<v Speaker 1>and the world right now at the Australian dot com

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<v Speaker 1>dot au