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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. Investors grow increasingly nervous about

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Speaker 1: the outlook for the shere market on the back of

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Speaker 1: mixed earnings results and volatility out of the US, Domino's

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Speaker 1: records its first loss in twenty years, and the case

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Speaker 1: of the stolen golden toilet goes to court. Plus plenty

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Speaker 1: of earnings results and Donald Trump sides with Russia over Europe.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily business news for people

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Speaker 1: who make their own decisions. It is Wednesday, the twenty

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Speaker 1: sixth of February twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson, and

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Speaker 1: good morning, Sean Aylmer. Stolen golden toilet kept a straight face?

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Speaker 2: You did?

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Speaker 1: It was tough. The main story this morning, though, Sean.

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Speaker 1: There is growing nervousness among investors about the performance of

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Speaker 1: the ASX over the next six months, with fears about

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Speaker 1: US tariffs combining with uncertainty in Europe and falls in

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Speaker 1: local bank stocks to trigger forecast of a correction markets.

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Speaker 2: The local share market's up just one percent this year.

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Speaker 2: It's down more than three percent over the past week.

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Speaker 2: Now the big banks have been sold off, the big miners.

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Speaker 2: We know that there's a bunch of events hurting sentiment,

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Speaker 2: mostly overseas, but also here as well. Investors do not

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Speaker 2: like uncertainty, and that's what markets are experiencing in the US.

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Speaker 2: There's plenty of uncertainty around taris, around relations with Europe,

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Speaker 2: around relations with China, with Mexico, with Canada. There is

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Speaker 2: massive proposed spending cuts from the Department of Government Efficiency

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Speaker 2: Elon Musk's DOGE department. That's causing all sorts of upheaval

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Speaker 2: and heartache. It's hitting business and consumer sentiment now. The

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Speaker 2: S and P five hundred is up two percent this year,

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Speaker 2: but last week it suffered its steepest fall since mid December.

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Speaker 2: The Magnificent seven textocs, well, they're just wobbling somewhat. They're

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Speaker 2: not so magnificent at the moment. Locally, the share market

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Speaker 2: began the year relatively expensive, and as earning season rolls

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Speaker 2: on this is the last week of it, companies start

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Speaker 2: missing profit expectations. There are some very very big sell offs.

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Speaker 2: We'll talk about some today, but in recent weeks, big

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Speaker 2: sell offs in energy companies. Mpole Fever was one that

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Speaker 2: sold off yesterday. In the quick service restaurant area, Goodsmany,

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Speaker 2: Gome as we got that Domino's. We'll talk about later

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Speaker 2: through to engineering companies, minerals and resources, technology companies, big

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Speaker 2: big moves and share prices.

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Speaker 1: Sean, you mentioned uncertainty. You always talk about uncertainty and

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Speaker 1: how much investors hate it. Are you saying then that

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Speaker 1: the market will fall?

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Speaker 2: I wish I knew, I wish. Yeah. Look, I've gone

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Speaker 2: to Shane Oliver. We often go to Shane Oliver on this,

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Speaker 2: and Chain is generally an upbeat sort of person. Now

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Speaker 2: he thinks across twelve months the ASEX two hundred will

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Speaker 2: be higher, but he said it's going to be a

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Speaker 2: tough ride and potentially a fifteen percent correction along the way.

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Speaker 2: Fifteen percent is huge, massive market twenty percent. Yeah, so

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Speaker 2: fifteen percent really really is significant. Certainly it's worth watching

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Speaker 2: what happens to the banks in our market and the

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Speaker 2: big three miners in our market. The usual rules apply,

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Speaker 2: you know, speak to financial plan We always talk about that,

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Speaker 2: diversification matters. Don't put all your eggs in one basket,

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Speaker 2: Understand where you're putting your money, but just be ready

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Speaker 2: for a rough ride.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, sounds like it. So that's the outlook. What happened yesterday.

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Speaker 2: Well there's in PISX two hundred closed down zero point

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Speaker 2: seven percent eighty two hundred and fifty two points. Utilities

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Speaker 2: did well, consumer discretionary not so well. Big banks and

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Speaker 2: minors fell all sorts of earnings, many of which will come.

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Speaker 1: To sean what's happening in international markets. So there's there's

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Speaker 1: one story that really got my attention yesterday. Yes, Warren Buffett.

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Speaker 2: Yes, this very much is your story. So he released

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Speaker 2: his annual letter to Berkshire Hathway shareholders always closely watched.

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Speaker 2: I once went to a Burkshire Hathaway and your general meeting.

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Speaker 2: It was very cool.

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Speaker 1: That's like that. He Warren Buffett is like the closest

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Speaker 1: thing that that finance and investing has to a genuine rock.

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Speaker 2: Star, right, yeah, Yeah. I got to ask him a

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Speaker 2: question and everything.

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Speaker 1: What did you ask him? Just out of interest?

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Speaker 2: They had an interest in HH Insurance, the insurance company,

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Speaker 2: and I asked him about that. But I think I've

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Speaker 2: told you this story before. So he's offside. And the

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Speaker 2: gentleman's name I just can't remember, not Charlie Munger, but

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Speaker 2: someone else who was involved in the business. I then

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Speaker 2: went and ran into him. In the urinal and we

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Speaker 2: were discussing the insurance. Yeah, discussing it. And it's always

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Speaker 2: like slightly awkward when you're there talking about it and

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Speaker 2: someone finishes, and like do you hang around or.

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Speaker 1: Go where to look? Whether to shake hands or.

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Speaker 2: You don't shake hands? Michael, Anyway, let's get back to

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Speaker 2: the Sorry. So Warren Buffett, who is definitely a Democrat,

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Speaker 2: he took a pretty thinly veiled swife at Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: He said Berkshire paid at twenty six point eight billion

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Speaker 2: US dollars in tax, which is more than any company

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Speaker 2: has ever paid. This was last financial year, more than

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Speaker 2: any of the big tech companies paid. For example, I

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Speaker 2: will now quote his letter, thank you, Uncle Sam, someday

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Speaker 2: your nieces and nephews at Berkshire hoped to send you

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Speaker 2: even larger payments than we did in twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 2: Spend at wisely, take care of the many who, for

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Speaker 2: no fault of their own, get the short straws in life.

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Speaker 2: They deserve better, And never forget that we need you

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Speaker 2: to maintain a stable currency, and that result requires both

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Speaker 2: wisdom and vigilance on your part. How goods that we know?

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Speaker 2: What are we trying to get to Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it is, as you say, very very thinly veiled. Yes,

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Speaker 1: that's life right sewn. We've got a lot more still

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Speaker 1: to come. We are talking about Domino's for loss in

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Speaker 1: two decades, but really I think we're all just waiting

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Speaker 1: for the golden toilet storry, aren't we. All right, We'll

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Speaker 1: be back in a moment with the rest of the

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Speaker 1: day's business news. Sean Domino's Pizza Enterprises has recorded its

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Speaker 1: first loss in twenty years as the new chief executive

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Speaker 1: clears the cupboards, in this case, closes stores in an

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Speaker 1: effort to rebuild the struggling fast food group, which is

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Speaker 1: had some tough times recently.

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Speaker 2: So domino has rode off more than one hundred million dollars.

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Speaker 2: It shut two hundred and five stores, mostly in Japan.

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Speaker 2: We knew about that. The loss of twenty two point

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Speaker 2: two million dollars for the six months was a bit

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Speaker 2: of a surprise. Its share price fell eleven percent yesterday.

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Speaker 2: Mark Van Dyke took over from Don may Don had

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Speaker 2: been running the show for about twenty years. Mark van

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Speaker 2: Dyke took over in November. He's been closing stores, cutting costs.

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Speaker 2: The company now has thirty seven hundred stores. A thousand

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Speaker 2: of those are in Japan, FO one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 2: in France. They're the two troubled regions. In Australia, earnings

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Speaker 2: are actually up eight percent. Domino's winning market share in

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Speaker 2: the fast food sector, so that's kind of that's good

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Speaker 2: news obviously for them. On the revenue side, Dominos will

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Speaker 2: offer more value oriented products. So they all say that,

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Speaker 2: but do you know they're going to come out with

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Speaker 2: go on always think this stuff's interesting, is it? So

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Speaker 2: the plan is to have snack sized pizza pots. What's

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Speaker 2: that It's like a muffin, the same size as a muffin,

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Speaker 2: And the idea is that they don't want to get

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Speaker 2: the lunchtime trade instead to have these very snack sized

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Speaker 2: pizzas because.

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Speaker 1: No one wants to be walking around holding a full

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Speaker 1: kind of pizza box.

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Speaker 2: It's not cool to walk into the office with a

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Speaker 2: big pizza. No. Dominoes has really struggled with about three

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Speaker 2: billion dollars now twenty twenty one post COVID it was

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Speaker 2: worth fourteen billion dollars. What a slide, Yeah.

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Speaker 1: It certainly was. This next story is quite remarkable. Sean

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Speaker 1: air traffic authorities only discovered that Chinese warships were conducting

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Speaker 1: a live fire exercise in the Tasman Strait thirty minutes

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Speaker 1: after it began, thanks to an alert by a Virgin

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Speaker 1: pilot rather than any kind of warning from kind of

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Speaker 1: Chinese government officials.

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Speaker 2: Incredible, isn't it. Air Services Australia officials told Senate Estimates

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Speaker 2: yesterday that forty nine flights were forced to divert their

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Speaker 2: flight plans because of the exercise late last week. The

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Speaker 2: incident marked the latest challenge to the government's efforts to

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Speaker 2: stabilize relations with Beijing, with the federal opposition and national

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Speaker 2: security experts branding it a branding it a provocative act

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Speaker 2: that deserves condemnation. The exercises were conducted about six hundred

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Speaker 2: and forty kilometers off the New South Wales South Coast.

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Speaker 2: Air Services Australia Chief executive Rob Sharp told Estimates at

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Speaker 2: Virgin Australia was advising that a foreign warship was broadcasting

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Speaker 2: that they were conducting live firing three hundred article miles

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Speaker 2: east of the coast. That's how Air Australia found out about.

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Speaker 1: It, Okay, so clearly the airlines were caught off guard.

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Speaker 1: YEP but what about, say, the cruise ships in the area,

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Speaker 1: what about the fishing boats. Can you imagine there was

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Speaker 1: a fishing boat. It was like, what the hell was

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Speaker 1: that All of a sudden these fish just start floating up,

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Speaker 1: you know, like the grenade fishing. Anyway, anyway, I really

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Speaker 1: wonder if that happened.

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Speaker 2: Probably not.

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Speaker 1: Australia. Sean is quote right to worry that'll be hit

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Speaker 1: with tariffs on steel and aluminium by Donald Trump and

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Speaker 1: not get an exemption because Sean. The White House is

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Speaker 1: full of protectionists.

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Speaker 2: That's the view of Mick mulvaney, the US President's chief

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Speaker 2: of staff in the first term. In Donald Trump's first term,

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Speaker 2: he said the Republican Party is much more protectionist than

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Speaker 2: ten years ago, and the fact that the US needs

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Speaker 2: the stuff Australia sells and has a trade surplus with

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Speaker 2: US might not be enough to gain an exemption. That's

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Speaker 2: because of all those protectionists in the White House. The

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Speaker 2: comments come as Treasure Jim Chalmers is in Washington to

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Speaker 2: a an Australian Superation superannuation investment summit. He met with

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Speaker 2: some of the big investors over the past twenty four hours.

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Speaker 2: He's also due to meet with US Treachery Secretary Scott Bessett.

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Speaker 1: A few results worth mentioning Sean nine Entertainments earnings fell

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Speaker 1: twenty nine percent for the first half as weaker economic

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Speaker 1: and advertising conditions and significantly a loss of revenue from

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Speaker 1: Meta as well all weighed on the bottom line.

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Speaker 2: The drop came despite a bigger contribution from real estate

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Speaker 2: platform Domain. That's really the story at nine at the moment.

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Speaker 2: Co Star the US group has loved a two point

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Speaker 2: seven billion dollar bid for Domain. Nine own sixty per

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Speaker 2: cent of it, so they will decide whether or not

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Speaker 2: that bid goes ahead. The acting CEO, Matt Stanton wouldn't

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Speaker 2: really be drawn on it. In a statement, Nine said

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Speaker 2: Domain continues to be a key part of nine's media

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Speaker 2: ecosystem and long term growth strategy. We'll wait and see

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Speaker 2: on that one.

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Speaker 1: After the show. We have an interview coming up today

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Speaker 1: with Tim Burrows from Umbrella really going into all of.

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Speaker 2: This exactly as far as even so, Matt Stanton is

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Speaker 2: the acting CEO, why haven't nine got a full time CEO?

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Speaker 2: He's been acting for three or four months now. How

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Speaker 2: a seven get performing? How's nine performing? What happens tonight?

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Speaker 2: If they do sell domain? What about the radio business,

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Speaker 2: the broadcast business, the publishing business. What will Stan do

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Speaker 2: around sports rights? The whole lot. No one knows media

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Speaker 2: better than Tim.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and asking this big question. Could it be an

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Speaker 1: unraveling of nine after this point? It is a great conversation.

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Speaker 1: It's coming up after the show by now pay later group.

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Speaker 1: Zip has recorded reported record earnings. Sean And says it

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Speaker 1: is growing faster than competitors in the US, including Blocks,

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Speaker 1: cash App, Affirm and Klana as well.

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Speaker 2: So cash in is more than doubled in the six

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Speaker 2: months to the end of December. The share price as

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Speaker 2: a result, jumped fourteen percent yesterday. The number of transactions

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Speaker 2: going through the Zip platform grew sharply, especially in the US.

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Speaker 2: Do you know he likes Zip more than other where?

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Speaker 2: Zip is performing best young female users. There you go.

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Speaker 2: I don't know why Zip would appeal to young female users.

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Speaker 2: You're looking at me blankly here.

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Speaker 1: Well, no, I'm assuming that when we're talking young, we're

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Speaker 1: talking kind of like people in their twenties going out

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Speaker 1: and shopping and buying clothes.

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Speaker 2: But why, but why?

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Speaker 1: It's just such a stereotype, wasn't it. I just went

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Speaker 1: straight into that, but.

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Speaker 2: Why zip rather than block or a firm or klanner.

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Speaker 1: That's a good question and one sewan that, unfortunately I

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Speaker 1: have no answers for.

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Speaker 2: The Other thing they're doing is introducing a pain in eight.

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Speaker 2: So most of these buying our pay lading. It's like

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Speaker 2: four payments, but there are more expensive goods, and so

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Speaker 2: they're doing a pain and eight thing. The other thing

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Speaker 2: helping them in the US particularly is Donald Trump and

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Speaker 2: the less regular woman. There's unlikely to be as much

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Speaker 2: regulation around buy now, pay later under a Trump administration.

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Speaker 1: It's a fascinating sector. Let's turn to international news. You

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Speaker 1: mentioned Donald Trump there, and the president has deepened Washington

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Speaker 1: split with allies over Ukraine, with drawing US condemnation of

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Speaker 1: Russia's twenty twenty two invasion at the United Nations and

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Speaker 1: among the Group of Seven Nations as well.

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Speaker 2: So the US and Russia both voted against a European

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Speaker 2: backed resolution in the UN General Assembly that calls out

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Speaker 2: Moscow's full scale invasion. That's the phrase three years ago.

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Speaker 2: The two sides later aligned for the first time since

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Speaker 2: the war started in the Security Council to approve a

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Speaker 2: US resolution calling for a swift end to the conflict

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Speaker 2: without assigning blame, which is a very much a reversal

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Speaker 2: from the policy under President Joe Biden. It comes as

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Speaker 2: the G seven also struggled to issue a joint statement

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Speaker 2: on the anniversary of the war after the US opposed

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Speaker 2: phrasing condemning Moscow that echoed previous lamage from the group.

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Speaker 2: That's all, according to Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: The Europeans and the Americans Sean might not be getting

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Speaker 1: on too well, though that wasn't so obvious at the

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Speaker 1: meeting between Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron, except

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Speaker 1: for a slightly comfortable handshake, and there was a moment

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Speaker 1: when he interrupted. The French president interrupted the US President

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Speaker 1: to correct him on something. But apart from that, they

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Speaker 1: seemed to be getting on reasonably well.

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Speaker 2: A bit awkward, d't you reckon?

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Speaker 1: It was that handshake. It looked like a tugger wall

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Speaker 1: going back and forth. It was just the most kind

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Speaker 1: of marcho display of dominance that you can imagine.

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Speaker 2: And neither of them was giving They weren't giving up.

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Speaker 2: Mccron said European nations needed to contribute more to maintenance

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Speaker 2: security and to maintaining security and peace on the continent.

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Speaker 2: He added, there couldn't be an end of fighting without guarantees.

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Speaker 2: Trump said he believed Russian President Vladimir Putin would accept

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Speaker 2: European peacekeepers in Ukraine to keep the peace. He also

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Speaker 2: expressed hope the conflict could end within weeks and the

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Speaker 2: Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski would soon come to the US

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Speaker 2: to sign a deal to give the US access to

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Speaker 2: uk to the Ukraine's critical minerals. I have absolutely no

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Speaker 2: idea where that's going to happen or not.

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Speaker 1: No, no, no idea. Finally, Sean, it is time to

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Speaker 1: talk about this story. Thieves who stole a golden toilet

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Speaker 1: valued at four point eight million pounds that's what nine

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Speaker 1: point six million Aussie dollars from Blenham Palace completed the

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Speaker 1: quote audacious raid in just five minutes, accorded to it.

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Speaker 2: Five men are accused of stealing the eighteen carrot gold

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Speaker 2: toilet from the stately home west of London just days,

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Speaker 2: in fact, five days after it was installed as artwork

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Speaker 2: in September twenty nineteen. However, if it was artwork, you

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Speaker 2: didn't think you wouldn't think that it would work. But

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Speaker 2: it was fully functioning oh good. It was entitled America.

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Speaker 2: It was created by Italian artist Maurizio Catalan. The actual

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Speaker 2: toilet's never been recovered. It's believed to have been split

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Speaker 2: up and sold off, so.

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Speaker 1: Like a golden seat over here and a golden system

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Speaker 1: over there, and spend somewhere else.

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Speaker 2: The Oxond Crown Court was told that they carefully planned

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Speaker 2: burglary that would not have been possible without lots of preparation.

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Speaker 2: It's alleged that five men drove through locked wooden gates

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Speaker 2: into the grounds of Blenham Palace shortly before five am

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Speaker 2: in two stolen vehicles. They allegedly drove across the feel

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Speaker 2: up to the front steps, smashed and broke in through

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Speaker 2: a window. They then broke down the wooden door to

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Speaker 2: the cubicle where the toilet was fully plumbed in, removed it,

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Speaker 2: leaving water spouting out of the pipes, and then just

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Speaker 2: drove away with a toilet.

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Speaker 1: Can you imagine trying to sell that then broken up

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Speaker 1: into these pieces like a dodgy guy and a trench

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Speaker 1: coat comes up. You want to buy an s bend

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Speaker 1: just busted it open. Sean will put some pictures of

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Speaker 1: that in the newsletter, the Fear and Greed Newsletter, which

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Speaker 1: comes out today. If you haven't subscribed already, head along

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Speaker 1: to Fearangreed dot com dot au. There will be a

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Speaker 1: lot more serious content in the newsletter. The newsletter is

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Speaker 1: all about kind of Shorn's views on a whole bunch

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Speaker 1: of different stories, so it's definitely worth subscribing just for that.

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Speaker 1: Up next to the Fear and Greed Daily in of

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Speaker 1: You with Tim Burrows from Umbrella.

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Speaker 2: Thank you very much, Sean, Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Wednesday, the twenty sixth of February twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson.

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Speaker 1: That was Beier and Greed. Have a great day.