WEBVTT - Who decides the future of Gaza?

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<v Speaker 1>It's very difficult for international journalists to get into Gaza,

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<v Speaker 1>and actually the only way that you can really do

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<v Speaker 1>it is to go on what's called an embed with

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<v Speaker 1>the Israeli defense forces, the Israeli army.

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<v Speaker 2>You tell the difference then and an attack.

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<v Speaker 1>Riend should I feel I ought to get my eart.

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<v Speaker 3>Zanni Minton Beadows is the editor in chief of the Economist.

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<v Speaker 1>So I went in with three colleagues and we went

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<v Speaker 1>in a convoy of three humv's in an armored vehicle.

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<v Speaker 1>Why on that one, And we were joined somewhat unusually

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<v Speaker 1>by Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, who is the head spokesman

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<v Speaker 1>of the IDF.

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<v Speaker 3>This journey she's taking into Gaza is one very few

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<v Speaker 3>foreign journalists have been able to make since Israel's bombings began.

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<v Speaker 1>And we crossed what's called the Netzareem Corridor, which is

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<v Speaker 1>essentially a road that the Israelis have built that bisects Gaza.

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<v Speaker 4>You can see offence. Now, this is the this is

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<v Speaker 4>the border, and this is where we put on.

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<v Speaker 1>And we crossed on this bumpy road for seven kilometers

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<v Speaker 1>to the Mediterranean Sea, and every single building I saw

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<v Speaker 1>was flattened or heavily destroyed. I literally did not see

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<v Speaker 1>an intact building. My colleagues who had been in Gaza

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<v Speaker 1>before said it was very, very difficult to recognize here.

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<v Speaker 4>It's just it's it's sort of very organized and complete destruction,

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<v Speaker 4>where on both sides of the roads what you see

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<v Speaker 4>is just piles of rubble.

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<v Speaker 1>We know that around sixty percent of all buildings in

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<v Speaker 1>Gaza have either been damaged or destroyed, and where I was,

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<v Speaker 1>it was essentially flattened. I'm not a war correspondent, I'm

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<v Speaker 1>not someone who does this regularly, but I was very,

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<v Speaker 1>very struck by It's a devastation.

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<v Speaker 3>Now there's a real risk this devastation could spread. Iran's

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<v Speaker 3>Supreme leader has vowed to retaliate against Israel after the

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<v Speaker 3>head of Hamasa's political bureau was assassinated in Tehran last week.

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<v Speaker 3>But while tensions escalate, the fight over who will control

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<v Speaker 3>Gaza in the future is continuing too, from the streets

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<v Speaker 3>of Jerusalem to the Knesset, Gaza and the West Bank.

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<v Speaker 3>Zanni Minton Bedos has been speaking with dozens of people

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<v Speaker 3>about what will happen to Gaza when or if the

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<v Speaker 3>fighting stops from Schwartz Media. I'm Ruby Jones. This is

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<v Speaker 3>seven am today. What is the future for Gaza? It's Wednesday,

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<v Speaker 3>August seventh. Zanni, thank you for coming on seven am.

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<v Speaker 3>It's excellent to have.

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<v Speaker 2>You on, very nice to join you.

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<v Speaker 3>So, Zanni, on this reporting trip, you had this very

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<v Speaker 3>specific question in mind, which is what happens on the

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<v Speaker 3>day after? So who would be in charge of Gaza

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<v Speaker 3>in the days and weeks when and if there was

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<v Speaker 3>a ceasefire? And what would a credible plan for security

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<v Speaker 3>in Gaza actually look like? Why was that the driving

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<v Speaker 3>question for you?

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<v Speaker 1>I have been very struck in all of the reporting

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<v Speaker 1>and discussion about what happens next in Gaza that when

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<v Speaker 1>you talk to people, the day after is usually a

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<v Speaker 1>shorthand for a very ambitious vision of the past to

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<v Speaker 1>a future Palestinian state, a two stage solution, all of

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<v Speaker 1>which are extremely important, but they are very much medium

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<v Speaker 1>term goals. And what I was interested in was what

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<v Speaker 1>actually happens on the literal day after, What happens if

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<v Speaker 1>there is a ceasefire, or even if there isn't a

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<v Speaker 1>cease fire, what happens when the fighting ebbs? What does

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<v Speaker 1>the next months, the next six months the next year

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<v Speaker 1>look like in Gaza, how does one even begin to

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<v Speaker 1>provide relief and reconstruction and what do you need for

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<v Speaker 1>that to happen.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, let's talk a bit more about what you were told,

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<v Speaker 3>because you pose this question to both Palestinians and Israelis,

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<v Speaker 3>so politicians, military people, for Pentagon official, you spoke to

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<v Speaker 3>a whole range of people. So can you just run

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<v Speaker 3>me through what the possible scenarios are for the future

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<v Speaker 3>of Gaza.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, Actually, one of the earliest conversations I had,

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<v Speaker 1>and one of the most clarifying, was with Dana Strule,

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<v Speaker 1>who is a woman who until about six months ago

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<v Speaker 1>was Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East

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<v Speaker 1>at the US Pentagon, and she very clearly laid out

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<v Speaker 1>for me that there were essentially five options in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 1>One that Israel continues to provide security in effect as

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<v Speaker 1>an occupying power, and that is something that is utterly

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<v Speaker 1>unacceptable to Palestinians for obvious reasons, and frankly, it's unacceptable

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<v Speaker 1>to most countries around the world. The second option, which

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<v Speaker 1>is something that you hear a lot about from Israeli politicians,

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<v Speaker 1>is that some kind of international probably Pan Arab coalition

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<v Speaker 1>would come in and provide security in Gaza. That's what

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<v Speaker 1>Israeli politicians hope. It doesn't seem at tooll clear to

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<v Speaker 1>me that that's very realistic. Then there are two options

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<v Speaker 1>which people talk about, but neither of which are terribly attractive.

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<v Speaker 2>The first is that security is provided by.

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<v Speaker 1>Some kind of private contractors, outsourced. The second, which is

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<v Speaker 1>the one that is really really unattractive, is the return

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<v Speaker 1>of Hamas as the de facto governing power. Nobody wants that,

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<v Speaker 1>but that is in effect what happens absent anything else.

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<v Speaker 1>And then the fifth, which is the option that Palestinians

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<v Speaker 1>in the West Bank, the Americans and actually most of

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<v Speaker 1>the international community other than the Israelis are keen on,

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<v Speaker 1>is that security is provided by Palestinian forces essentially created

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<v Speaker 1>from the West Bank, from the fatal led West Bank government,

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<v Speaker 1>and drawing on the people within Gaza who used to

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<v Speaker 1>be part of the security establishment, the policeman, the traffic

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<v Speaker 1>wardens who were there in the past.

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<v Speaker 2>Providing that.

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<v Speaker 1>Those are effectively the five options. The alternative, if you

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<v Speaker 1>don't have any of that, is that the place becomes

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<v Speaker 1>a lawless zone run by criminal gangs, a kind of

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<v Speaker 1>mogadissue on the med As someone put it very graphically

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<v Speaker 1>to me, that's what happens if you don't have one

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<v Speaker 1>of these other solutions.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, well, let's explore a bit further than this idea

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<v Speaker 3>that the Palestinian authority could take charge of Gaza. You

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<v Speaker 3>spoke to several representatives, including the new Justice minister. Can

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<v Speaker 3>you tell me a bit about him and his vision

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<v Speaker 3>for Gaza.

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<v Speaker 1>So Chakrabille Alazaim he was one of the most prominent

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<v Speaker 1>lawyers in Gaza. He's a very much part of the

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<v Speaker 1>Gaza elite.

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<v Speaker 5>Guests like Tony Blair, John Kerry, like Katherine Ashton.

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<v Speaker 2>I went to visit Chakabille in Ramala.

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<v Speaker 1>He was just an extraordinarily eloquent, mild manner, thoughtful and

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<v Speaker 1>indeed optimistic person.

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<v Speaker 2>This is my home, so that's quite a house.

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<v Speaker 5>This is this woman in pool.

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<v Speaker 1>His home which he showed me, this extraordinary sort of

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<v Speaker 1>grand villa was completely destroyed by the Israelis.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, that's it now, Oh my god, that is it.

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<v Speaker 1>And that is a completely destroyed pile of rubble. He

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<v Speaker 1>stayed in Gaza after October seventh until he, like everybody else,

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<v Speaker 1>was forced to flee his home and having been asked

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<v Speaker 1>several times to join the Palestinian authority and had always refused,

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<v Speaker 1>But now after October seventh, he decided it was time

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<v Speaker 1>to serve and he joined the new Palestinian government in March.

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<v Speaker 1>He is Justice Minister and he is very passionate about

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<v Speaker 1>playing a role in.

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<v Speaker 2>The future of Gaza.

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<v Speaker 1>He was very clear to me that the only legitimate

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<v Speaker 1>option was for Palestinians and the Palestinian government to provide

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<v Speaker 1>security for Gaza.

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<v Speaker 5>I think let's put aside the leadership which might be Hamas.

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<v Speaker 5>I'm talking about the normal policeman, traffic policeman or a

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<v Speaker 5>security or whatever. Those are civil servants and those deserve

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<v Speaker 5>to be given their chance to continue serving. And those

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<v Speaker 5>people can provide the security, and they are well known

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<v Speaker 5>to the people, They have their own respect.

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<v Speaker 1>And what will be the relationship between the civil police

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<v Speaker 1>and Commas.

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<v Speaker 5>I don't think that Hamas will or should be in

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<v Speaker 5>the picture on the day to day running of the

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<v Speaker 5>life of the civilians in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you think you can make any progress on the

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<v Speaker 1>path you've laid out without actively talking to Hamas.

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<v Speaker 5>I don't think so. I don't think so. But I'm

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<v Speaker 5>willing to do whatever I'm asked by the Prime Minister

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<v Speaker 5>and the President in order to achieve what we are

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<v Speaker 5>supposed to achieve.

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<v Speaker 1>But there's questions about their legitimacy and there's questions about

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<v Speaker 1>their capability. The PA hasn't itself had any elections since

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand and six. This is not a kind of

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<v Speaker 1>legitimate democratic government in any meaningful sense. The PA itself

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<v Speaker 1>is being sort of systematically undermined by the Israelis. Israel,

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<v Speaker 1>for example, hasn't distributed the Palestinian's share of tax revenue

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<v Speaker 1>to which they're entitled. As a result, the PA hasn't

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<v Speaker 1>been able to pay for civil servants. They are on

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<v Speaker 1>partial pay. So this combination of a very very weak government,

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<v Speaker 1>one beset by weakness, by corruption and by lack of legitimacy,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a real question about, you know, whether it can

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<v Speaker 1>even sustain governance in the West Bank, never mind in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 3>After the break. What the Israelis have planned for Gaza Zanni.

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<v Speaker 3>On your reporting trip, you went to Gaza and the

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<v Speaker 3>West Bank, and you also went to Israel. So tell

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<v Speaker 3>me a bit about what it felt like to walk

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<v Speaker 3>the streets there.

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<v Speaker 1>For israelis it feels as though it's really October seventh

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<v Speaker 1>has just happened. Everyone knows someone who was directly affected

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<v Speaker 1>on October seventh, So you're lot.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, you walk through.

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<v Speaker 1>The streets of Jerusalem and you come across people protesting

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<v Speaker 1>for a ceasefire against Natanya who's saying, we need a ceasefire,

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<v Speaker 1>bring the hostages home. Then a little further on you

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<v Speaker 1>see another protest by the families of fallen soldiers against

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<v Speaker 1>the ceasefire, saying that that would mean that their relatives

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<v Speaker 1>died in vain.

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<v Speaker 4>My brother got into ASA to protect us, to bring

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<v Speaker 4>back the hostages, and if we're we stop the fire now,

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<v Speaker 4>then it died for nothing.

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<v Speaker 1>I was very struck in conversation off the conversation I

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<v Speaker 1>had in Israel, with all manner of people, people in

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<v Speaker 1>favor of the government, all serried ranks of the opposition,

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<v Speaker 1>ordinary people. Virtually no one brings up or mentions gars

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<v Speaker 1>and civilians. And when you think about how that is

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<v Speaker 1>understandably the focus in the rest of the world with

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<v Speaker 1>the death told now you know it his figures provided

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<v Speaker 1>by the Hamas led Health Ministry, But forty thousand people

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<v Speaker 1>approximately have died. That is not really focused on in

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<v Speaker 1>Israel at all. The perspective is completely different, and that's

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<v Speaker 1>the thing that struck me the most. Israel is a

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<v Speaker 1>traumatized society, understandably so, a society focused on its own

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<v Speaker 1>security and the fact that it is surrounded by countries

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<v Speaker 1>and organizations that want to attack it. But it is

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<v Speaker 1>one where the plight of and the aspirations of Gaza

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<v Speaker 1>and civilians are just not part of the conversation.

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<v Speaker 3>So tell me then, what are Prime Minister Benjamin netna

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<v Speaker 3>Who's plans for Gaza.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, there are no official day after plans. That's part

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<v Speaker 1>of the problem.

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<v Speaker 5>Is all will fight until we destroyed Hamasa's military capabilities

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<v Speaker 5>and a rule in Gaza and bring all our hostages home.

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<v Speaker 2>Prime Minister Natanya, who talks about total that's what total

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<v Speaker 2>victory means, and we will settle for nothing.

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<v Speaker 1>Less total victory becomes an empty phrase after a while.

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<v Speaker 1>Prime Minister nat and Yahoo is widely unpopular and it's

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<v Speaker 1>causing huge frustration within Israel.

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<v Speaker 3>A large majority of Israelis want and Yahoo to resign.

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<v Speaker 3>So if you were to look around at the rest

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<v Speaker 3>of the Israeli leadership, as you did, you spoke to

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<v Speaker 3>politicians from the left to the far right. What are

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<v Speaker 3>some of the ideas that you heard there for the

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<v Speaker 3>future of Gaza.

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<v Speaker 1>So you're right, I did talk to I felt like

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<v Speaker 1>I'd been on a sort of tour of Israeli politics,

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<v Speaker 1>which is which is complicated. There are a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>different parties on the kind of left, center left, even

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<v Speaker 1>center right. You have a recognition that you need to

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<v Speaker 1>focus on security, but then you need to have some

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<v Speaker 1>prospect for a better life for gas and civilians. But

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<v Speaker 1>there are very different means to getting there.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm Tally Bennett, a former Prime Minister of Israel.

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<v Speaker 1>We went to see enough Tally Bennett, the former Prime Minister,

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<v Speaker 1>at his house just north of Tel Aviv.

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<v Speaker 4>We'd identify competent officials at various levels.

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<v Speaker 1>So now Tally Bennett was one of the very senior

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<v Speaker 1>politicians who was very willing to go on the record

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<v Speaker 1>and lay out clearly what he thought should happen.

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<v Speaker 4>We should take a piece of Gaza, let's say, from

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<v Speaker 4>Gazawadi northward, and then set the stage and say the following.

0:14:34.680 --> 0:14:38.000
<v Speaker 4>It's going to take a while. Bear with us, our friends,

0:14:38.480 --> 0:14:40.880
<v Speaker 4>but at the end of it, we're going to form

0:14:40.920 --> 0:14:42.320
<v Speaker 4>a Gaza two point zero here.

0:14:42.960 --> 0:14:45.960
<v Speaker 1>So his was a sort of a piece by piece approach,

0:14:46.440 --> 0:14:49.640
<v Speaker 1>getting rid of competence properly, as he put it, and

0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:53.920
<v Speaker 1>then starting again with a part of Gaza and then

0:14:54.000 --> 0:14:57.080
<v Speaker 1>moving on to another part. But he also had the

0:14:57.880 --> 0:15:01.720
<v Speaker 1>hope and expectation that there would be Arab forces coming

0:15:01.720 --> 0:15:02.840
<v Speaker 1>in to provide governance.

0:15:03.400 --> 0:15:08.200
<v Speaker 4>You got to bring in a bunch of competent regional

0:15:08.200 --> 0:15:11.840
<v Speaker 4>players and find competent local leadership, and that would be

0:15:11.880 --> 0:15:14.440
<v Speaker 4>appoint that it could not, in the first instance, be

0:15:14.560 --> 0:15:19.640
<v Speaker 4>democratic on that plot of land, let's call it Northern Gaza,

0:15:19.680 --> 0:15:23.040
<v Speaker 4>and then all of Gaza gradually set it on its

0:15:23.080 --> 0:15:27.760
<v Speaker 4>feet and learn the lessons from post World War two reconstruction.

0:15:28.360 --> 0:15:32.680
<v Speaker 1>Would your partner for civil governance in Gaza be the

0:15:32.680 --> 0:15:36.600
<v Speaker 1>Palestinian Authority? That's what the Americans are very keen to happen,

0:15:36.720 --> 0:15:38.560
<v Speaker 1>that the PA is the partner. Do you think it

0:15:38.600 --> 0:15:39.520
<v Speaker 1>can be the partner?

0:15:39.640 --> 0:15:46.880
<v Speaker 4>I think certainly not in the foreseeable future, because they

0:15:46.960 --> 0:15:54.960
<v Speaker 4>have proven to be deeply corrupt, deeply incompetent, and I'm

0:15:54.960 --> 0:15:59.840
<v Speaker 4>fairly confident that we can, once we defeat Hamas, will

0:15:59.880 --> 0:16:02.120
<v Speaker 4>be able to find reasonable.

0:16:01.960 --> 0:16:06.800
<v Speaker 3>Players and The obvious question there is if you're quote

0:16:06.920 --> 0:16:10.640
<v Speaker 3>unquote starting again, or what are you starting with When

0:16:10.680 --> 0:16:14.280
<v Speaker 3>people in Gaza are being killed at the scale they are,

0:16:14.280 --> 0:16:15.800
<v Speaker 3>who would actually be left?

0:16:16.880 --> 0:16:18.880
<v Speaker 1>Well, that's right, and I think to be fair to

0:16:19.600 --> 0:16:23.600
<v Speaker 1>Naughtarlie Bennett, he would have prosecuted this war in a

0:16:23.720 --> 0:16:27.960
<v Speaker 1>very different way. He acknowledges that nine months on this

0:16:28.080 --> 0:16:30.840
<v Speaker 1>is much harder than if his approach had been taken

0:16:30.880 --> 0:16:33.520
<v Speaker 1>from the very beginning. But yes, you're right when you

0:16:33.640 --> 0:16:39.040
<v Speaker 1>talked to Israeli politicians about what this Gaza two point zero,

0:16:39.040 --> 0:16:43.000
<v Speaker 1>if you will, would look like, the Israeli military was

0:16:43.320 --> 0:16:48.480
<v Speaker 1>still engaged in combat with Ramas, there were rockets falling,

0:16:48.760 --> 0:16:52.840
<v Speaker 1>there were ghaz and civilians being killed, and there's a

0:16:52.920 --> 0:16:55.680
<v Speaker 1>kind of, you know, an irony right that in sort

0:16:55.720 --> 0:16:58.800
<v Speaker 1>of air conditioned offices and buildings in Israel, people are

0:16:58.840 --> 0:17:02.880
<v Speaker 1>talking about Gaza two Oh. Meanwhile, you know two million

0:17:02.920 --> 0:17:06.480
<v Speaker 1>people are living in the most horrific conditions still under

0:17:06.480 --> 0:17:07.880
<v Speaker 1>attack within Gaza.

0:17:08.720 --> 0:17:13.040
<v Speaker 3>So Zanni just finally he laid out five different possible

0:17:13.080 --> 0:17:16.480
<v Speaker 3>scenarios for Gaza at the beginning of this conversation, after

0:17:16.480 --> 0:17:19.400
<v Speaker 3>the reporting that you've done, do you have any kind

0:17:19.400 --> 0:17:22.800
<v Speaker 3>of answer to the question of what happens on the

0:17:22.920 --> 0:17:23.440
<v Speaker 3>day after.

0:17:24.520 --> 0:17:26.399
<v Speaker 1>So I was in Israel at the end of June.

0:17:26.600 --> 0:17:29.800
<v Speaker 1>That's several weeks ago. Now, clearly a lot has happened

0:17:29.840 --> 0:17:33.480
<v Speaker 1>since then, both in terms of, you know, rising tensions

0:17:33.480 --> 0:17:38.200
<v Speaker 1>with Chris Bulla, the assassination of Hania. The place right now,

0:17:38.240 --> 0:17:40.879
<v Speaker 1>as we are speaking at the beginning of August is

0:17:41.480 --> 0:17:44.520
<v Speaker 1>very very much on tender hooks. I think there's a

0:17:45.080 --> 0:17:49.119
<v Speaker 1>real expectation, of course, of Iranian retaliation. The risks of

0:17:49.160 --> 0:17:51.359
<v Speaker 1>a wider regional conflict are much greater, I think than

0:17:51.400 --> 0:17:53.840
<v Speaker 1>they were just a few weeks ago. But the prospects

0:17:53.840 --> 0:17:57.040
<v Speaker 1>of a ceasefire, which is I think a prerequisite for

0:17:57.160 --> 0:17:59.720
<v Speaker 1>much of the day after conversation that I was having,

0:18:00.160 --> 0:18:03.200
<v Speaker 1>have become much more distant when you know, the main

0:18:03.280 --> 0:18:05.880
<v Speaker 1>interlocutor on the Hamas side was just been inssassinated.

0:18:07.119 --> 0:18:08.800
<v Speaker 2>Someone said to me, Gaza.

0:18:08.600 --> 0:18:11.920
<v Speaker 1>Will go from being the world's largest open air prison

0:18:11.960 --> 0:18:16.640
<v Speaker 1>to the world's largest refugee camp, and that is a.

0:18:16.200 --> 0:18:18.960
<v Speaker 2>Really, really grim prospect. But right now.

0:18:20.359 --> 0:18:24.399
<v Speaker 1>I don't see many grounds for feeling much more optimistic.

0:18:25.960 --> 0:18:29.439
<v Speaker 1>You can't help but be there and sort of be

0:18:29.680 --> 0:18:33.199
<v Speaker 1>blown away by the potential, by the natural beauty of

0:18:33.240 --> 0:18:36.399
<v Speaker 1>the place, by the it's tiny, right, the whole area

0:18:36.560 --> 0:18:40.119
<v Speaker 1>is really really small. It could be so much more,

0:18:40.840 --> 0:18:46.600
<v Speaker 1>but right now I left. Yeah, not hugely optimistic.

0:18:49.520 --> 0:18:52.159
<v Speaker 3>Well, Zannie, thank you so much for your reporting and

0:18:52.160 --> 0:18:52.680
<v Speaker 3>for your time.

0:18:53.000 --> 0:18:54.560
<v Speaker 2>Thank you very much, thanks for having me.

0:18:57.440 --> 0:19:00.000
<v Speaker 3>You can hear Zanni Minton Beddow's full report on Guys

0:19:00.320 --> 0:19:04.080
<v Speaker 3>on the Economist podcast The Intelligence. The episode is called

0:19:04.160 --> 0:19:08.600
<v Speaker 3>Gaza After the Dust Settles. It's a fascinating listen special

0:19:08.640 --> 0:19:28.160
<v Speaker 3>thanks to Hardipet. Also in the news today, the Reserve

0:19:28.200 --> 0:19:31.160
<v Speaker 3>Bank of Australia has kept interest rates on hold at

0:19:31.160 --> 0:19:34.520
<v Speaker 3>a rate of four point three five percent. The Australian

0:19:34.560 --> 0:19:37.560
<v Speaker 3>Bureau of Statistics last week showed inflation at three point

0:19:37.640 --> 0:19:41.200
<v Speaker 3>eight percent, which was in line with the RBA's expectations.

0:19:41.720 --> 0:19:44.359
<v Speaker 3>On Monday, the share market dived in response to a

0:19:44.400 --> 0:19:48.800
<v Speaker 3>weakened US economy, and Google has been labeled a monopolist

0:19:48.840 --> 0:19:52.359
<v Speaker 3>in a landmark decision in the United States. The US

0:19:52.480 --> 0:19:55.720
<v Speaker 3>Justice Department in States had sued Google, accusing it of

0:19:55.720 --> 0:20:00.439
<v Speaker 3>illegally maintaining dominance in online search by paying companies Apple

0:20:00.480 --> 0:20:03.320
<v Speaker 3>and Samsung billions of dollars to have Google be the

0:20:03.320 --> 0:20:06.639
<v Speaker 3>default search engine on their devices. The ruling is the

0:20:06.680 --> 0:20:10.040
<v Speaker 3>first antitrust decision of its kind against a technology giant

0:20:10.080 --> 0:20:13.600
<v Speaker 3>in decades. The judge will now decide what penalties Google

0:20:13.600 --> 0:20:17.440
<v Speaker 3>should face. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am. Thanks

0:20:17.440 --> 0:20:17.919
<v Speaker 3>for listening.