Speaker 1: normally
Speaker 1: normally jim and I jim Wiesemeyer, pro farmer policy analyst
Speaker 1: and I would start the week off on monday mornings.
Speaker 1: 8 15 central time with signal to noise. Half hour
Speaker 1: live conversation between Jim and I and the
Speaker 1: those that choose to participate in the conversation by chat,
Speaker 1: uh live live streams on the
Speaker 1: Farm Journal Youtube channel, facebook pages for Farm Journal, for
Speaker 1: Agritalk and for Agweb, I believe that's right, Joel fix
Speaker 1: me if I'm wrong on that.
Speaker 1: Um,
Speaker 1: and it's uh, it's a,
Speaker 1: it's
Speaker 1: an easy way to get ready for the week
Speaker 1: jim
Speaker 1: without
Speaker 1: with letting you do the work is basically the way
Speaker 1: I look at it.
Speaker 2: Absolutely Jeff and I missed monday but we all had
Speaker 2: a good time with our barbecues. I hope
Speaker 1: that's right. That's right. So let's do it now. Let's
Speaker 1: do it now. Yeah. And uh make sure that everybody
Speaker 1: is up to speed. Don't forget if you would like
Speaker 1: to participate in the conversation. The best way to do
Speaker 1: it right now
Speaker 1: is to get on the twitter machine and hit me
Speaker 1: with a message
Speaker 1: just include hashtag agritalk in the message. That way I
Speaker 1: will be sure to see it.
Speaker 1: Um, I want to start with something that's happening today.
Speaker 1: Jim and it intrigues me
Speaker 1: and President joe biden is going to be meeting with
Speaker 1: Fed Chairman
Speaker 1: jerome Powell to discuss inflation, I guess,
Speaker 1: uh what's gonna be the focus,
Speaker 2: Well, it's the inflation and the economy. You know, he
Speaker 2: wrote an op ed in the Wall Street Journal over
Speaker 2: the weekend kind of justifying uh the positive things that
Speaker 2: he and his administration has been doing relative to the economy.
Speaker 2: So this is the month of june and it's all
Speaker 2: focused
Speaker 2: on the economy. And
Speaker 2: also at, at this afternoon's hearing, it will begin at
Speaker 2: 1 15 eastern time. Chip will be Treasury secretary Janet Yellen.
Speaker 2: So that brings also in the economy. So we're going
Speaker 2: to see if they have a press availability after this afternoon.
Speaker 2: Chip
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah. Jim when I was the editor of Pro
Speaker 1: farmer and I know you do it now with Pro
Speaker 1: farmer Editor brian Grady,
Speaker 1: you are
Speaker 1: quick to remind the editor that sometimes it's okay to
Speaker 1: point out that, hey, we got this right
Speaker 1: and here's why it's important to point out that we
Speaker 1: got this right.
Speaker 1: Um,
Speaker 1: the biden administration
Speaker 1: maybe takes that a step too far Sometimes if you
Speaker 1: ask me,
Speaker 2: well, especially right now, even though there are some positive
Speaker 2: things going on, you can't convince many americans of that
Speaker 2: with the current situation relative to gasoline prices and the
Speaker 2: food prices. You, you just, that, that's a political no,
Speaker 2: no
Speaker 2: chip. So, so they're breaking a
Speaker 2: third rail there.
Speaker 1: Yeah. The,
Speaker 1: the eyes of an average consumer out there, The pocketbook
Speaker 1: of the average consumer out there
Speaker 1: is not lying to them.
Speaker 1: I mean, what's happening is really happening
Speaker 1: and there are many times that it feels like the
Speaker 1: biden administration, they may start off with a comment about
Speaker 1: we feel your pain. We or whatever it is.
Speaker 1: Yeah,
Speaker 1: But it it uh
Speaker 1: it's sometimes hard to listen to that message. Well,
Speaker 2: whenever you have a 3 to 5 point plan of
Speaker 2: what you're doing that's usually says that you're in trouble
Speaker 2: and he's in trouble. And that was a three point
Speaker 2: plan in the Wall Street Journal.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Um, well, okay. 3 to 5 point plan.
Speaker 1: How about a 33
Speaker 1: point plan
Speaker 1: that china's cabinet announced over the weekend covering the financial
Speaker 1: fiscal investment, industrial policies in an effort to try to
Speaker 1: bring that economy back. It is a wreck over there. Jim.
Speaker 2: Yeah. And see this is going to lead to a
Speaker 2: likely chip, uh, the world recession because of the the
Speaker 2: so much importance of the U. S. And china, especially china.
Speaker 2: Now we're in a china centric world.
Speaker 1: Yeah,
Speaker 1: certainly are. Certainly are. Okay.
Speaker 1: Uh, Congress is on recess this week. Right. Isn't that again?
Speaker 2: Are on recess? Yeah. But boy, there's a lot of
Speaker 2: things going on as you well know the E. P. A.
Speaker 2: By june 3rd. Let's see if they reach the court
Speaker 2: mandated date to announce the final 2022 2021 mandated RFs
Speaker 2: levels
Speaker 2: and the downwardly adjusted 2020. Now the keys are the
Speaker 2: bio diesel and the advanced biofuel levels. We don't really
Speaker 2: know them yet. And whether corn based ethanol has left
Speaker 2: at 15 billion gallons as they proposed for 2022. And
Speaker 2: as we've said on Agritalk and signal to noise before E. P.
Speaker 2: A administrator Michael Regan's reputation. If you will, credibility
Speaker 2: is on the line here and other issues as small
Speaker 2: refinery exemptions or any granite at all. And will there
Speaker 2: be indication of future srs waivers
Speaker 2: and hopefully will they mention the current high gasoline prices
Speaker 2: and that robust ethanol usage should help bring the, you
Speaker 2: know down the prices.
Speaker 1: Right, right. You know,
Speaker 1: administrator Regan has spoken
Speaker 1: so highly of biofuels and the role that they can
Speaker 1: play
Speaker 1: in achieving and taking a step forward in in reaching
Speaker 1: the administration's climate change bills goals. Okay.
Speaker 1: If this
Speaker 1: friday
Speaker 1: features
Speaker 1: disappointment for the biofuel industry,
Speaker 1: I think this is gonna be the first time that
Speaker 1: we've seen the administration really throw an administrator under the bus.
Speaker 2: Yes, absolutely. And I hope that doesn't happen chip because
Speaker 2: it would say again that certain cabinet people are not
Speaker 2: making the decisions and if that's the case, who is
Speaker 1: right?
Speaker 1: If if this isn't a robust
Speaker 1: RV. Oh, renewable volume obligations for 2022,
Speaker 1: then somebody else is making the call based on administrator
Speaker 1: Regan's
Speaker 1: past comments.
Speaker 1: Yes. Yeah. Boy, it's we're going to learn a lot
Speaker 1: on friday, aren't we?
Speaker 2: We will and we'll talk about it friday. And also Wednesday,
Speaker 2: you know, tom Vilsack USDA Secretary usually goes to Georgetown
Speaker 2: university in D. C. Uh, to talk about the food
Speaker 2: industry and he's going there
Speaker 2: Wednesday to announce how they're going to utilize that $4
Speaker 2: billion dollar commitment they made last year by the way
Speaker 2: to transform the nation's food system. Now, what do they
Speaker 2: have in mind? They had earlier signaled to to to
Speaker 2: strengthen the supply chain
Speaker 2: and address structural challenges revealed by the pandemic and that
Speaker 2: gets you into the meat processing area and other aspects chip.
Speaker 2: And we could hear about fertilizer prices as well this
Speaker 2: week from him.
Speaker 1: Okay, alright. Yeah that's something that's gonna get everybody's attention
Speaker 1: if they talk about some way to bring these fertilizer
Speaker 1: prices down. Um
Speaker 1: jim let's talk about the emergency relief program because I
Speaker 1: said something in the conversation with Senator ernst that I
Speaker 1: hope was right.
Speaker 1: Um when I said this one wasn't just an announcement,
Speaker 1: it looks like there is actually
Speaker 1: activity happening
Speaker 1: post announcement
Speaker 1: with with the applications, the the the the applications that
Speaker 1: are filled out in advance making their way out there
Speaker 1: to farmers that's happening isn't it?
Speaker 2: Absolutely. And now not all that means, not all farmers
Speaker 2: have received it yet, but they're greasing the skids here
Speaker 2: because they know how much that program means for cash flow.
Speaker 2: I mean $6 billion is a chunk of change. It
Speaker 2: will eventually be close to 10 billion
Speaker 2: Uh you know, you know really nine billion I think
Speaker 2: for the crops. Uh and and that is a lifeline
Speaker 2: for a number of producers which brings up
Speaker 2: the other point chip. Today's crop progress report will be calculated,
Speaker 2: you'll have a lot of traders and analysts calculating potential
Speaker 2: prevent plant
Speaker 2: in some of the areas what you know, North Dakota,
Speaker 2: South Dakota, etcetera. And that brings in a policy, a
Speaker 2: big policy move that's still under discussion that I honestly
Speaker 2: think will happen. Uh, lawmakers, Klobuchar Minnesota home of in
Speaker 2: North Dakota Kramer, North Dakota have asked, uh, you know,
Speaker 2: secretary Vilsack to use his available authority to tap C.
Speaker 2: C C funding to provide the support to producers facing
Speaker 2: those prevent plant
Speaker 2: Risk. So what they want is, you know, as you know,
Speaker 2: currently producers planning after the final planting date, they face
Speaker 2: a 1% reduction in their crop insurance coverage level per day,
Speaker 2: not to mitigate that. And to get a focus for
Speaker 2: renewed planting.
Speaker 2: They want, see, see, see, you know, a commodity credit
Speaker 2: corporation
Speaker 2: to make up the difference. I eventually think that will
Speaker 2: happen now. That's me only. But I think the movement
Speaker 2: is there to do that.
Speaker 2: Okay,
Speaker 1: well then talk to a producer in central Illinois that
Speaker 1: has complained about
Speaker 1: the flexibility
Speaker 1: and crop insurance programs for the guys in the northern plains.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 1: I
Speaker 1: why, why should that flexibility be in there?
Speaker 2: Well, because you have a number of lawmakers from key
Speaker 2: states like Minnesota and north Dakota and south Dakota, not
Speaker 2: only on the appropriations committee, but have access to the
Speaker 2: secretariat's called clout chip. But I understand what you're coming from,
Speaker 2: as far as uh, dates that they can plant a
Speaker 2: second cop. I think that they're reviewing that because Vilsack
Speaker 2: said they're they're going to try to loosen up to
Speaker 2: use your term
Speaker 2: To increase the flexibility for producers because I'll tell you
Speaker 2: this white house is more than concerned about 20, crop potential.
Speaker 1: Yeah. And there they are concerned about the global food shortage.
Speaker 1: That is um, that is being predicted and is actually
Speaker 1: happening and well,
Speaker 2: especially in
Speaker 1: vulnerable areas
Speaker 2: since Putin is using food terrorism, he says he will
Speaker 2: open up that area if we lift the sanctions or
Speaker 2: some of the sanctions. That's just not gonna happen.
Speaker 1: Right. I'm kind of in Yeah, I want to talk
Speaker 1: more about that when we come back. We've got Jim Williams,
Speaker 1: my pro farmer policy analyst, he's gonna stick around with
Speaker 1: us through the break and we'll wrap up, I guess
Speaker 1: I'm going to call it signal to noise.
Speaker 1: Yeah,
Speaker 1: we have got a improvised signal to noise going. That
Speaker 1: is the podcast that Jim Wiesemeyer pro farmer policy analyst
Speaker 1: Jim Joyce Meyer and I do every monday morning at
Speaker 1: 8 15, but we didn't do it yesterday morning. So
Speaker 1: we moved into the show here on Tuesday to get
Speaker 1: things started.
Speaker 1: Um, jim we had the
Speaker 1: the emergency relief program payment announced last week. You said
Speaker 1: that it's it's out there and happening. We're starting to
Speaker 1: see the application's flow
Speaker 1: question from a listener, is there anything happening for hog
Speaker 1: producers
Speaker 1: that saw huge expenses in the early days of the shutdown.
Speaker 2: Uh what they what what's out there for hogs is
Speaker 2: it's you know that's it.
Speaker 2: We have asked Secretary Vilsack with that if you recall
Speaker 2: they modified their approach to the uh to the hog
Speaker 2: producers and the pandemic. And I know the hog producers
Speaker 2: don't like to hear that but that's what we're being told.
Speaker 1: Yeah
Speaker 2: those are those supplemental, remember the supplemental payments?
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah yeah yeah the supplemental payments but it fell
Speaker 1: well short of what was absolutely tossed around
Speaker 1: uh and what we thought it was going to be
Speaker 1: and what I don't understand jim is how that money
Speaker 1: was pulled back when money was flowing freely from D. C.
Speaker 2: Yeah. You know I'm gonna have to get Mp National
Speaker 2: pork Producers council on the record on that one because
Speaker 2: uh that was a sensitive issue not only with some
Speaker 2: of their members, many of their members but other people
Speaker 2: in town. So I think we need to do a
Speaker 2: postmortem on that. So you know look for that one
Speaker 1: Crude oil prices have pulled back from the highs of
Speaker 1: the day. Still more than $2 higher. You got the
Speaker 1: July contract above the March seven highs which was the
Speaker 1: uh the invasion reaction.
Speaker 1: What else is going to happen on on fuel prices
Speaker 1: this week? Jim
Speaker 2: well Opec Plus is having a meeting via the internet
Speaker 2: on thursday chip and they're they're really being more than
Speaker 2: encouraged to boost production because let's face it now with
Speaker 2: the prices rising that we've seen at the gas pump
Speaker 2: odds are well over 50%. You're going to, uh,
Speaker 2: Go to that $6 level for, you know, gasoline
Speaker 2: in the US, not just California.
Speaker 1: Yeah. And I'm starting to driving vacation on thursday night
Speaker 1: this week. Jim That doesn't encourage me at all.
Speaker 2: I know, but that's what a growing number of analysts
Speaker 2: are saying. And so, and that's why you have to
Speaker 2: watch that world price chip. Because 60% of the gasoline
Speaker 2: prices in the US is really based off that Brent
Speaker 2: crude oil. That's why we cover it. Pro farmer Brent crude,
Speaker 1: right? Gotcha.
Speaker 1: Here's a sensitive one for you. But there is so
Speaker 1: much conversation about it right now. I've got to bring
Speaker 1: it up to you. What are the odds that there
Speaker 1: is going to be
Speaker 1: a successful push on some kind of gun legislation going forward?
Speaker 2: It'll be successful. How about that one? But it won't
Speaker 2: be as expansive as at least the eight point plan
Speaker 2: that the house looks like they'll pass. But the key
Speaker 2: is the Senate and schumer as majority leader democrat from
Speaker 2: new york is saying is having talks with a select
Speaker 2: number of republicans. They'll they'll need 60 votes. But I
Speaker 2: think the time is here. Chip for some, some version
Speaker 2: of legislation to deal with the horrible incidents
Speaker 2: that we saw in texas and buffalo earlier,
Speaker 1: Could could what happened in Canada over the weekend be
Speaker 1: a uh a preview of what might be proposed here.
Speaker 2: A barometer. You know, interesting. Canada has a habit of
Speaker 2: really advancing those those issues ahead of the U. S.
Speaker 2: I've tracked them on a couple of other areas, you know,
Speaker 2: but that's indeed what they proposed a new law that
Speaker 2: would freeze purchases and sales of hand guns. I don't
Speaker 2: think that will go that far. But yeah, they would
Speaker 2: also limit magazine, you know, capacities and banned toys that
Speaker 2: look like guns. But Congress, the the Senate republicans have
Speaker 2: got the
Speaker 2: um, you know, more than a signal. They have to
Speaker 2: do something.
Speaker 1: Okay.
Speaker 2: And I think it'll be mainly in the mental health area, Jeff. That's,
Speaker 2: that's one of the key ingredients
Speaker 1: there.
Speaker 1: Good. Let's uh, let's address the problem head on. If it's,
Speaker 1: if we're going to address the problem, uh, that exists
Speaker 1: out there. Let's address it head on. And it's, it
Speaker 1: starts with mental health. Uh, that's where it's got to begin.
Speaker 1: Mansion is going to talk with schumer on the economy
Speaker 1: and an energy bill.
Speaker 2: Yes. And he has been talking, they've had several meetings
Speaker 2: and so pro farmer is different than most other consultants
Speaker 2: in forecasting that we believe the odds at least right
Speaker 2: now are over 50% that you're going to have an
Speaker 2: economic and energy bill. Uh, no, it won't be the
Speaker 2: build back better. It will be much scaled down
Speaker 2: and but it will be a combination of, uh, some taxes,
Speaker 2: but not near the draconian that they were proposing before
Speaker 2: it'll pay down some of the debt. But it will
Speaker 2: also include many features of that green energy deal and
Speaker 2: so watch that because that's very important for carbon mitigation
Speaker 2: programs
Speaker 2: and the sustainable aviation fuel chips. So, but I'll bow
Speaker 2: out of this and say it won't happen unless they
Speaker 2: can get this passed before the long august congressional recess.
Speaker 2: So there's your timeline, the clock is ticking on this one.
Speaker 1: Okay. I asked Senator ernst if we can trust Vladimir
Speaker 1: Putin's promised to provide a pathway for Ukrainian grain out
Speaker 1: of the country.
Speaker 1: She said that she wouldn't trust him as far as
Speaker 1: she can throw him.
Speaker 1: Um, is it going to happen?
Speaker 2: Well, not with
Speaker 2: Putin, you don't, you know, not with his uh,
Speaker 2: uh, mandate that the, you know, you know, sanctions are
Speaker 2: lifted yet at least some of them. But, you know,
Speaker 2: the Wall Street Journal had an editorial where they said
Speaker 2: biden's ambivalence in aiding Ukraine encourages Putin to believe he
Speaker 2: can still achieve a strategic victory.
Speaker 2: So they're wanting to see more economic and other pressures
Speaker 2: on the release
Speaker 2: Of that at least 20 million tons of grain and storage.
Speaker 2: So the pressure is really mounting out. I think we'll
Speaker 2: know within the next two weeks,
Speaker 1: there is no way that we are going to start
Speaker 1: lifting sanctions on Russia at this time
Speaker 1: to move grain, is there?
Speaker 2: I never say never anymore in Washington, but very low odds.
Speaker 2: Single digit odds. But I've been surprised before with the
Speaker 2: you know, both political groups in this town. You would
Speaker 2: hope that that's not the case.
Speaker 1: Got you. Jim. That was a good way to get
Speaker 1: a signal to noise out there. Thank you so much, buddy. Alright,
Speaker 1: Pro Farmer policy analyst Jim Wiesemeyer delivering a signal to
Speaker 1: noise on today's Agritalk.