Speaker 1: volatility in commodity markets has gone off the charts with
Speaker 1: the energy and grain markets leading that volatility. Equity markets
Speaker 1: have also reflected extreme uncertainty.
Speaker 1: Major league baseball is up against the deadline again. The
Speaker 1: lockout continues and without an agreement by
Speaker 2: midnight tonight the
Speaker 1: start of the regular season might be pushed back there.
Speaker 1: Yeah that's what we need. After two years of covid games.
Speaker 1: I'm agritalk host chip Flory. That's pro farmer policy analyst
Speaker 1: Jim Wiesemeyer. Good morning. Mr Weese Mayer. How are you today?
Speaker 2: Well I'm a war correspondent now. Chip
Speaker 2: again again. Uh we're
Speaker 2: um as pro farmer our headlines said war of words
Speaker 2: turns into war and that's what we're
Speaker 1: at.
Speaker 1: Um The I did see
Speaker 1: some some memories come back from my time in Chicago
Speaker 1: when when you and I were working together at futures
Speaker 1: world news
Speaker 1: and uh when when the gulf war the first gulf
Speaker 1: war started I had just gotten home
Speaker 1: was turned on the news and saw that shock and
Speaker 1: awe started
Speaker 1: and had to get back on the train and go
Speaker 1: back down to cover what was happening in the in
Speaker 1: the currency markets and so on and yeah it does
Speaker 1: turn you into a war correspondent. It really does when
Speaker 1: we're talking about what's going on in these markets.
Speaker 2: Yeah I remember the incident you mentioned I was at
Speaker 2: my favorite bar at the time
Speaker 2: in D. C. The blue mirror and I was calling
Speaker 2: in one liners from the bar
Speaker 1: yep yep. Absolutely. I think I had a conversation or
Speaker 1: two with you from that bar and I was on
Speaker 1: the floor of the mark.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we were playing liars poker and I had to
Speaker 2: get out for a while. Yeah,
Speaker 1: such are the days, yeah, yeah, yeah, so, um,
Speaker 1: hey, you know what, before we get to the headlines,
Speaker 1: so jim
Speaker 1: and everything that is happening out there with, with everything
Speaker 1: that's happening, I'm sure that there are lots of questions,
Speaker 1: comments that, that viewers listeners uh, want to contribute to
Speaker 1: the conversation today. If you look over at the right,
Speaker 1: you can click on the comments
Speaker 1: and that should open up a dialog box for you
Speaker 1: at the bottom of the page
Speaker 1: and um, enter your comments and your questions there, and
Speaker 1: we'll try to get to them before the, before the
Speaker 1: end of our time here, this morning,
Speaker 1: um, again, before we get to the headlines,
Speaker 1: I feel like if we don't go back and take
Speaker 1: a look at what happened at last week's USDA Annual
Speaker 1: Ag outlook for him, we might run out of time, uh,
Speaker 1: once we get to the headlines. So what was the
Speaker 1: headliners for you from the outlook for him?
Speaker 2: Well, i it wasn't the commodity outlook, because it was
Speaker 2: pre invasion, and, and I feel
Speaker 2: bad for USDA because they put a lot of time
Speaker 2: into that conference and they did release some of their
Speaker 2: estimates somewhere of note, but the, but
Speaker 2: I just think you, you really have to go from
Speaker 2: here on, on acreage yield and, and all that other stuff.
Speaker 2: So it was a look back
Speaker 2: your relative to the commodity outlook. But I thought the
Speaker 2: most important thing I got out of it
Speaker 2: was Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack uh interviews with the
Speaker 2: number of people including U. S. Trade rep Katherine tai
Speaker 2: because slowly we're beginning it's like pulling teeth uh
Speaker 2: uh their trade vision. But I spent a lot of
Speaker 2: time on that on pro farmer dot com this morning.
Speaker 2: And and they made it clear that they that they
Speaker 2: have other tools than
Speaker 2: traditional new trade agreements that they know is going to
Speaker 2: be hard to get through Congress. And they really talked
Speaker 2: about that. And I think Bill sack was spot on
Speaker 2: when he said
Speaker 2: we have to come up with the various approaches
Speaker 2: to water down our significant all eggs in one basket
Speaker 2: called china.
Speaker 2: So you know, I think that how they do it
Speaker 2: there there's are ways that they're starting with India on
Speaker 2: pork that did not take you know, Congress's agreement and
Speaker 2: as I keep saying uh
Speaker 2: they let trade promotion authority or fast track expires. So
Speaker 2: there's no
Speaker 2: approach to submit
Speaker 2: a traditional trade agreement to Congress because you need T. P. A.
Speaker 2: Because that allows for an up or down vote young
Speaker 2: without any amendments. So they're going to take different approaches.
Speaker 2: I I don't I've had some emails do I agree
Speaker 2: or disagree? It's not up to me
Speaker 2: to do that. But I say well let's let's see
Speaker 2: how their approach unfolds as if it's going to expand
Speaker 2: our market penetration in some other areas. I'm for it.
Speaker 1: Okay.
Speaker 1: Um Trade and and we talked about this last week
Speaker 1: to it seems like as as you said we're seeing
Speaker 1: more of the biden administration's trade vision out there.
Speaker 1: It's becoming a more uh
Speaker 1: popular topic of of conversation
Speaker 1: and I I'm glad to see it. I don't think
Speaker 1: we've got the undersecretary at U. S. D. A. In
Speaker 1: position yet, do we? No no
Speaker 2: not the person. So but
Speaker 2: uh but USTR is one of the most efficient groups
Speaker 2: that that we've seen over the years whether it's a
Speaker 2: democrat or Republican administration and
Speaker 2: Vilsack especially after his work at the dairy uh you
Speaker 2: know lobby group clearly knows the significance of trade to
Speaker 2: a number of commodities. So I think we're okay so far.
Speaker 1: Okay. Very good.
Speaker 1: What's this I hear about china wanting into Cp TPP.
Speaker 2: They they brought that up and uh Vilsack said they
Speaker 2: may want in but under the definitions and guidelines of
Speaker 2: the C. P. T. P. P. Which is the afterglow
Speaker 2: of the transpacific Partnership Asia pacific. Trade groups
Speaker 2: mainly
Speaker 2: he said they wouldn't qualify. But he also said the U. S.
Speaker 2: At this time.
Speaker 2: You know you know you know doesn't want to take
Speaker 2: steps to go in either. So that was revealing when
Speaker 2: when he just punted china's interest off and said at
Speaker 2: this time the U. S. Does not want an
Speaker 2: and all this. Well, uh
Speaker 2: I just think that they don't they know they don't
Speaker 2: have the votes and of course trade promotion authority, you
Speaker 2: know it but that was that's a more the older
Speaker 2: approach to trade. I think that they're looking on
Speaker 2: one on ones and things like that ironically the the
Speaker 2: approach that trump preferred
Speaker 2: uh you know, bilaterals as opposed to multilateral. So I
Speaker 2: think they're coming around to that now in my speeches chip,
Speaker 2: you know, farmers are usually head of Washington, which is
Speaker 2: usually the last to know, okay.
Speaker 2: But a number of farmers astute farmers have asked me
Speaker 2: do their commodity and farm groups,
Speaker 2: what are they saying relative to this possible changing trade environment?
Speaker 2: Are they gearing up? I know the soybeans has an
Speaker 2: excellent with the soy console. They they really are sharp
Speaker 2: and the meat export federation is probably the best. So
Speaker 2: that's what I tell farmers, I said they have to be,
Speaker 2: you know, strategizing on how they're going to dance around
Speaker 2: this changing
Speaker 2: trade policy focus because as we're going to get into
Speaker 2: uh china could definitely be impacted by this war. As
Speaker 2: if their banks work with Russia, you know, on on
Speaker 2: all sorts of things which they have been doing.
Speaker 2: Uh they'll come in and have to be sanctioned by
Speaker 2: the U. S. And our allies and that's again these
Speaker 2: are these unintended consequences and these broad brush when you
Speaker 2: get into the fog of war.
Speaker 1: Okay, let's get to that big headline and that is
Speaker 1: Russia and Ukraine.
Speaker 2: There are talks
Speaker 1: happening. Uh but
Speaker 1: the reason that talks are happening I think
Speaker 1: is because the timeline Putin's timeline,
Speaker 1: the war is not running according to his timeline. I
Speaker 1: think he expected further advancement for his his efforts than
Speaker 1: what he's got right now. Yeah,
Speaker 2: the word is that four days and not done but
Speaker 2: four days and demolished. And it's not happening. The the
Speaker 2: will of the Ukrainian people is very
Speaker 2: very heartwarming to see
Speaker 2: uh and chilling at the same aspect with the Children,
Speaker 2: literally having to go down in in in pits and
Speaker 2: in basements, uh uh etcetera. And so many people leaving
Speaker 2: the country into Poland belarus is interesting. That's where they're
Speaker 2: having it on the border as we speak now. The
Speaker 2: defense minister
Speaker 2: from Ukraine is heading their delegation and the initial signals,
Speaker 2: they don't expect much. But this goes under the tradition,
Speaker 2: you escalate to deescalate chip that this is why Russia
Speaker 2: is pummeling or trying to as we speak, you know,
Speaker 2: you know, with the missile attack, you know, missile attacks,
Speaker 2: et cetera. But Ukraine doesn't expect much from it. But
Speaker 2: at least they're talking
Speaker 1: right.
Speaker 1: You mentioned the will of the Ukrainian people.
Speaker 1: Uh I'm learning more and more of of Ukrainian President
Speaker 1: Zelensky
Speaker 1: and um it's a remarkable story,
Speaker 1: one that I did not anticipate that I just didn't
Speaker 1: know much about him, to be honest with you jim
Speaker 1: and to see the path that he took towards leadership,
Speaker 1: he won over the country on Ukrainian dancing with the stars. It's,
Speaker 1: it's shocking to me,
Speaker 1: but here he is, leading
Speaker 1: and
Speaker 1: fighting for his country.
Speaker 2: That's and he's escalating very high because he's stuck in
Speaker 2: the country.
Speaker 2: Uh, and he was, some people are calling him the
Speaker 2: Churchill of our times. I think that's a bit of
Speaker 2: an overstatement right time. You know, you have to go
Speaker 2: on a little longer.
Speaker 1: It
Speaker 2: could be, but he knows the savviness of the internet,
Speaker 2: he's using that he's usurping Russia in that regard. So
Speaker 2: he's got the world
Speaker 2: on his, most of the world
Speaker 2: on his side and he's very articulate and I think
Speaker 2: that's the common man into him and he was a
Speaker 2: comedian and, and, and, and comedians, many, I don't have to,
Speaker 2: you know, broad brush,
Speaker 2: they can be very somber at times, very, very inward
Speaker 2: and I think that's coming out that he has the
Speaker 2: ability to put a pithy line out there. And so, um,
Speaker 2: but that's
Speaker 1: it,
Speaker 1: the commonality of this guy is the reason or one
Speaker 1: of the reasons that the Ukrainian people are, are fighting
Speaker 1: as aggressively as they are. They're willing to follow this guy.
Speaker 1: What I'm not saying according to the reports
Speaker 1: and you gotta take everything with,
Speaker 1: with a bit of caution that you see
Speaker 1: is it seems that the will of the Russian troops
Speaker 1: is not what President Putin needs to get this job done. No,
Speaker 2: some of their equipment has faulted. Uh,
Speaker 2: it's not the robust Russian military hardware
Speaker 2: that we were led to believe.
Speaker 2: Plus many Russians are, are not in favor of this uh, invasion.
Speaker 2: And while their protests are being kept down, look at
Speaker 2: the over 100,000 in Germany over the weekend protesting. And
Speaker 2: now Germany in a major change of policy
Speaker 2: is going to send money and military equipment
Speaker 2: to Ukraine. That's a fundamental change. So Putin is getting
Speaker 2: what he really definitely did not want. A unified opposition
Speaker 2: and a unified NATO.
Speaker 2: And I know both groups, uh, you know, us and
Speaker 2: and our allies were slow to come out of the chute.
Speaker 2: But boy, these, these increasing sanctions are definitely biting. You
Speaker 2: saw overnight,
Speaker 2: Um, uh, the, you know, you know, Russian Central Bank
Speaker 2: increased rates to 20% I think from 9.5 the ruble
Speaker 2: is plunging. So this is one of many economic bites
Speaker 2: that's going to encircle
Speaker 2: Russia. And the people are seeing this, they're feeling it,
Speaker 2: the run on banks in Russia etcetera. So
Speaker 2: As we go into beyond day four,
Speaker 2: this can get very costly for, for Russia, even though
Speaker 2: Putin built up,
Speaker 2: you know, foreign currency reserves, but they can, they can
Speaker 2: choke him pretty pretty quickly chip And I've noticed with
Speaker 2: great interest, a number of reputable people
Speaker 2: beginning to question the state of mind of Putin, I
Speaker 2: don't usually like to get into those areas. But when
Speaker 2: you have Condoleezza Rice from the, from the bush administration,
Speaker 2: Senator Marco rubio,
Speaker 2: who
Speaker 2: he said he didn't want to reveal inside intelligence on that.
Speaker 2: That alone says something right there.
Speaker 2: So you've got to worry about that because of the
Speaker 2: weekend events. When you taper any language dealing with
Speaker 2: nuclear weaponry and some of that over the weekend. That's,
Speaker 2: that's heady stuff.
Speaker 1: Okay, so the, the
Speaker 1: talk of nuclear weapons,
Speaker 1: uh, the re one of the big reasons that caught
Speaker 1: my attention is as quickly as it did is I
Speaker 1: flash back to one of the lines that
Speaker 1: President Putin used in his hour long address to the,
Speaker 1: to the Russian people leading up to the invasion.
Speaker 1: And that was, we do not have a border with Ukraine.
Speaker 1: We have a border with America
Speaker 1: because of the westernization of that country. That to me
Speaker 1: if you're wondering if America is, is within range of
Speaker 1: Russian nukes
Speaker 1: according to Putin,
Speaker 1: they're, they're, they share a border with America and that's
Speaker 1: his mindset. That's what really concerns me
Speaker 1: that
Speaker 1: you we just,
Speaker 1: we just don't know what he's what he's capable of
Speaker 1: at this time.
Speaker 2: That's true, especially with the changing
Speaker 2: mindset of some of these stories are correct Chip that
Speaker 2: gets nervous and then with, with so many, uh, people
Speaker 2: from Ukraine going into Poland and some of the weaponry
Speaker 2: going through Poland into Ukraine that just increases the
Speaker 2: possibility not likely
Speaker 2: possibility of a conflict and they're they're a NATO country
Speaker 2: and then that will bring in all the 30 NATO
Speaker 2: countries including the United States. So yeah we're into this
Speaker 2: very sensitive area here and that's why the talks are important.
Speaker 2: Whether or not they lead to anything or not that
Speaker 2: that you know, uh
Speaker 2: again, Putin probably wants to be done with this now
Speaker 2: because he'll hemorrhage pretty soon as far as the cost.
Speaker 2: And then it's clear now that there would be an
Speaker 2: insurgency even
Speaker 2: even if Russia is successful in the two major cities,
Speaker 2: Kiev and Kharkov.
Speaker 2: Uh so uh the insurgency would happen and the U. S.
Speaker 2: And western allies would help fund that. And that that's
Speaker 2: Putin's second Afghanistan.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he didn't he? Yeah, he certainly I don't think
Speaker 1: certainly doesn't want that on obviously been watching for any
Speaker 1: signs of a cyber attack originating from Russia.
Speaker 1: And again if reports are accurate on this, there was
Speaker 1: a cyber attack that originated from Ukraine that stopped a
Speaker 1: load of train train that was transporting fuel and troops
Speaker 1: through Belarus. But Ukraine hacked the system and stopped the train.
Speaker 2: Well it shows it goes both ways. Yes the if
Speaker 2: if Putin throws the cyber attack on the U. S.
Speaker 2: I've been told here from by pretty good people we
Speaker 2: will respond in kind and it won't be namby pamby stuff.
Speaker 2: Just to show the flexibility we have. We know how
Speaker 2: to do it as we've we've been in reserved of
Speaker 2: doing it because of the escalation,
Speaker 2: a flavor of a wire chip. But that's that's how
Speaker 2: world wars start. And I'm not saying don't do it
Speaker 2: and all that other stuff. These are what strategists are
Speaker 2: telling me to watch out for.
Speaker 1: Okay, I feel like we've tippy toed around this question,
Speaker 1: but I'm just going to ask you right out is
Speaker 1: Putin in a corner.
Speaker 2: He's boxed himself into a corner, I believe. And you
Speaker 2: know what happens that you take
Speaker 2: uh if it's not well thought out and he probably
Speaker 2: listened to people
Speaker 2: uh that he wanted to hear the news he wanted
Speaker 2: to hear rather than people who said you better watch
Speaker 2: out here. So I think he is in a corner.
Speaker 1: Okay.
Speaker 1: We mentioned you mentioned this briefly at the start and
Speaker 1: I'm to a point in my
Speaker 1: and the things that I wanted to talk about jim,
Speaker 1: where I've got a note that just as china
Speaker 1: and the connection
Speaker 1: and uh the connection of china to all of this
Speaker 1: talk more about it because if china does continue to
Speaker 1: do business with Russia
Speaker 1: and using the financial system inside of of Russia, uh
Speaker 1: there's there's gonna be consequences to pay.
Speaker 2: Absolutely. Because now we're also going the U. S. And
Speaker 2: Western allies are going after belarus for their clear involvement
Speaker 2: in this. And in fact belarus are sending, you know,
Speaker 2: military troops
Speaker 2: into Ukraine china as they are want to do likes
Speaker 2: to have it both ways. They don't like to pick
Speaker 2: a winner or loser.
Speaker 2: But in this case, early on with that trip from
Speaker 2: Putin to Beijing at the olympics, they compared notes. He
Speaker 2: clearly was in favor of the of the of the
Speaker 2: Russian strategy but it's gone awry now China is changing
Speaker 2: their trying to be an interested observer
Speaker 2: saying protect sovereignty and things like that. It really started
Speaker 2: and I and I and I I wrote earlier to
Speaker 2: watch this U. N. Vote last week how china voted
Speaker 2: and they abstained from voting. That was very key because
Speaker 2: normally they would have gone along and vetoed it like
Speaker 2: Russia did on the on on the resolution against the invasion.
Speaker 2: That was the first clear indication that China was having
Speaker 2: second thoughts chip. But this is try goes into trade.
Speaker 2: As we said before, this is major market sensitive impacts
Speaker 2: because not only are most of the ports, not all,
Speaker 2: but most of the ports in Ukraine ceased,
Speaker 2: you know, and that's why you have
Speaker 2: sunflower oil, wheat and corn and beans just surging again.
Speaker 2: But this throws off the entire trade mechanics let alone
Speaker 2: the financing of trade.
Speaker 2: two major banks that finance a lot of of Russia's
Speaker 2: you know, trade are just pulling out.
Speaker 2: So the the history of banking lessons that I was
Speaker 2: taught in my history classes are are helping me out
Speaker 2: now because you follow the money and money is being
Speaker 2: choked off
Speaker 2: in the, in, in Russia and it could in china
Speaker 2: as well.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, Absolutely. Okay,
Speaker 1: let's bring this whole situation back home.
Speaker 1: Uh, does this slow down the Fed's plans to increase
Speaker 1: interest rates?
Speaker 2: Well, we're going to see because the Fed chairman, jerome
Speaker 2: jay Powell,
Speaker 2: is going to appear twice before the House and Senate
Speaker 2: this week, Wednesday and thursday. And if a lawmaker doesn't
Speaker 2: ask him that question, I, they're not,
Speaker 2: you aren't worth anything. But I think they will,
Speaker 2: uh, I think this does affect from what I'm hearing
Speaker 2: from financial analysts. They'll be cautious,
Speaker 2: uh, to, to see how it unfolds. But they boxed
Speaker 2: themselves into a corner as well with their tapering program
Speaker 2: that should have started nine months ago
Speaker 2: with their, uh,
Speaker 2: inflation is transitory. Um, you know, you know, you know, mistaken,
Speaker 2: well into 2021 we can see food prices continue to elevate.
Speaker 2: And there's another angle USDA came out friday with increases
Speaker 2: across the board in 2022.
Speaker 2: Uh, you know, food price, you know, forecast at and
Speaker 2: away from home and they're still going to be too low.
Speaker 2: Uh, so yes, I, I think this will affect the
Speaker 2: Fed's strategy, but we're gonna see
Speaker 2: if Powell says that he'll say let the data follow him,
Speaker 2: which usually does. And that's not bad advice.
Speaker 1: Right, okay. Congress is back this week, both the House
Speaker 1: and the Senate come back to work today.
Speaker 1: Um, what's on the agenda.
Speaker 2: Well the big thing in town. Well of course it's
Speaker 2: now they've got to change you know situation what with
Speaker 2: the Russian invasion. So that that's that's the number one
Speaker 2: issue now. But then we have President Bush.
Speaker 2: President Bush president biden holding his first official state of
Speaker 2: the union address Tuesday tomorrow.
Speaker 2: And he's going to have to address any updates to
Speaker 2: the american people and Congress
Speaker 2: on the U. S. And our allies actions. I think
Speaker 2: he'll be favorably applauded for the for the actions follow
Speaker 2: up actions
Speaker 2: that are transpiring now. So we're gonna see. Uh but
Speaker 2: then he'll have to go through this. This should be
Speaker 2: a pivot for him because the word is that and
Speaker 2: you're seeing it in the in the in the major
Speaker 2: media chip with the covid pivot.
Speaker 2: Uh yeah that I don't have to wear masks. I
Speaker 2: think he's going to call the government workers back to
Speaker 2: Washington D. C. Offices
Speaker 2: in a phased in atmosphere. USDA has already done the
Speaker 2: same So that's something to look out for.
Speaker 2: He's going to of course talk about his number other
Speaker 2: than the water. Now the number one issue is climate
Speaker 2: change he'll spend some time on that
Speaker 2: his handlers hope that this will put the low in
Speaker 2: his continuing lower poll numbers that were out over the
Speaker 2: weekend and I think they're probably going to be right
Speaker 2: uh whether the bump is is significant remains to be seen.
Speaker 2: Uh he'll also talk about his other issues that he
Speaker 2: he'll talk about success is what he says during his
Speaker 2: first year, which was the bipartisan infrastructure framework or biff
Speaker 2: in the infrastructure bill. And in fact his first trip
Speaker 2: after he gives the address will be on that topic chips.
Speaker 2: So that tells you his focus there.
Speaker 2: Plus he'll he'll have to deal with the sensitive nature
Speaker 2: of inflation, food prices or agriculture should be mentioned dear.
Speaker 2: We'll see if he comes out in the attack mode
Speaker 2: on the meat processors and things like that. But he's
Speaker 2: gonna have to try to soothe
Speaker 2: the american public because it's high anxiety right now. So
Speaker 2: the president, that's the bully pulpit pulpit, we're going to
Speaker 2: see that come into play. So and and biden is
Speaker 2: pretty good at that when when he focuses on that.
Speaker 2: So we're gonna see. But he's going to have to
Speaker 2: tell the american public
Speaker 2: gas prices are going to go higher. We could probably
Speaker 2: have
Speaker 2: Uh, you know, $4 average prices within the next few
Speaker 2: months on on gasoline
Speaker 2: if not higher.
Speaker 1: Okay, we're gonna come back to biden here but we
Speaker 1: don't have a whole lot of time left but
Speaker 1: we will come back to biden in in a moment
Speaker 1: after we address one of the things
Speaker 1: that you had in in your morning update jim that
Speaker 1: I think is very important. He said one of the
Speaker 1: biggest wild cards for the week will be the decision
Speaker 1: on Wednesday by Opec on production.
Speaker 2: Yes. Opec plus now of course the U. S. And
Speaker 2: allies are are urging uh Opec Saudi Arabia and other
Speaker 2: big producers to increase production. But it's going to be
Speaker 2: interesting whether or not they follow through. Now, you've got
Speaker 2: more than a few republicans and the American Petroleum
Speaker 2: Institute pleading with biden to lighten up on the regulations
Speaker 2: on our crude oil industry and maybe focus on expanding
Speaker 2: the production capabilities allowing on the natural gas area. Because
Speaker 2: we're going to have to help europe out part of
Speaker 2: Germany's major switches. They said
Speaker 2: they're going to build up a natural gas reserve. So
Speaker 2: no longer will they be able to rely on Russia
Speaker 2: for a significant portion of their natural gas trade. So
Speaker 2: this is this is all embodied. A lot of things
Speaker 2: are gonna happen this week. Not only the state of
Speaker 2: the Union. What biden says relative to the energy
Speaker 2: needs
Speaker 1: now, not
Speaker 2: in the future
Speaker 2: now
Speaker 2: and then on on Opec, will they increase production to
Speaker 2: kind of
Speaker 2: lower the surging atmosphere remains to be seen.
Speaker 1: Jim, I'm afraid that this is going to be one
Speaker 1: of the most deflected state of the Union addresses we've
Speaker 1: ever seen. Yes, we've got this problem but it's caused
Speaker 1: by yes, we've got high meat prices. But look at
Speaker 1: the packers they caused it. Yes, we've got high gas prices.
Speaker 1: But that's because Russia invaded Ukraine
Speaker 1: and there will be no recognition of
Speaker 1: the administration's energy policy, no recognition
Speaker 1: of the supply chain issues
Speaker 1: uh that have added to the inflationary pressures that are
Speaker 1: being reflected now
Speaker 1: it's going to be
Speaker 1: yes, we see that this is happening, but none of
Speaker 1: it is our fault.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I hate in a time of war and our
Speaker 2: actions against the country in that war. You know, I
Speaker 2: don't want to be seen walking on the edge of
Speaker 2: politicizing anything but that out of the way. Okay.
Speaker 2: I think you're right to bring that up because
Speaker 2: there were legitimate arguments where
Speaker 2: the administration, their first week showed their true attitudes towards
Speaker 2: the crude oil industry with the with the
Speaker 2: uh voting down of the keystone XL pipeline, look where
Speaker 2: that would be helping uh with the regulations on on
Speaker 2: the on the crude oil industry.
Speaker 2: Uh some of the leases in that uh, you know,
Speaker 2: tapping the strategic petroleum reserve can only go so far.
Speaker 2: But this was a lack of vision around the Western
Speaker 2: world chip. Because look at look at where europe got
Speaker 2: married to Russia. You know,
Speaker 2: again, President trump didn't do everything right, okay. But he
Speaker 2: tried to caution for years, europe uh of what they
Speaker 2: were doing
Speaker 2: Relying on that, you know, North Stream two
Speaker 2: pipeline for their future. And now that's out the window.
Speaker 2: They're going to have to re rethink the energy policy
Speaker 2: for the future. But Germany over the weekend again said
Speaker 2: they would not resurrect
Speaker 2: Uh their nuclear energy which is phased out by the
Speaker 2: end of this year. They used to rely on nuclear
Speaker 2: energy for 30%. So they're going to have a higher
Speaker 2: prices in Europe. So yes, I think there were things
Speaker 2: that the Biden administration did without getting politics that's just
Speaker 2: announcing the obvious
Speaker 2: that they wanted to go to uh sustainable fuels right
Speaker 2: away and you just can't do that. It takes years,
Speaker 2: it takes years.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 1: Um
Speaker 1: You mentioned former president trump, he was at CPAP in
Speaker 1: florida over the weekend. He is clearly
Speaker 1: running
Speaker 1: In 2024.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he basically announced it without announcing a trump style
Speaker 2: but you know he won the straw vote, straw poll
Speaker 2: vote whatever that means. But
Speaker 2: he has and he increased his but on a percentage
Speaker 2: basis Ron DeSantis, the governor of florida,
Speaker 2: although way behind trump his his increase versus the last
Speaker 2: time
Speaker 2: was larger than trump's I like to point that out,
Speaker 2: I think trump is going to have a harder time
Speaker 2: than the so called experts think
Speaker 2: because he now he's in controversy again
Speaker 2: by some people say he was misquoted. No he wasn't,
Speaker 2: he wasn't, he complimented Putin called him brilliant, smart or
Speaker 2: whatever and genius genius. You just just watch now every
Speaker 2: republican is going to have to answer that question.
Speaker 2: Do you agree with your former president?
Speaker 1: Right, right? There's a fine line between genius and madman
Speaker 1: and I think we all know which way
Speaker 1: President Putin is leaning and he should have made that
Speaker 1: very clear in making that comment. Um,
Speaker 1: just strange, strange, strange way to make the comment.
Speaker 1: That's true. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Anyway, we are out of time. Jim anything that we
Speaker 1: have missed that that you feel like we need to
Speaker 2: address. I don't
Speaker 1: think so. Okay,
Speaker 2: volatility. Just look at the victim and just expect this
Speaker 2: thing is not going to go away anytime soon chips.
Speaker 2: So we're gonna have peaks and valleys and of which we,
Speaker 2: I have not seen for many, many years. So, and
Speaker 2: then
Speaker 2: watch the head, this is a headline grabbing market right
Speaker 2: now
Speaker 2: and uh, but you need sustained um, you know, development
Speaker 2: on the positive side coming out of Russia and Ukraine
Speaker 2: and I don't think we're there anytime soon.
Speaker 1: Okay. We are going to be talking market implications of
Speaker 1: the Russian Ukraine situation
Speaker 1: uh, this morning on agritalk. Pro farmer editor brian Grady
Speaker 1: is going to join me for that conversation and I
Speaker 1: can't think of anybody better to have on the show
Speaker 1: to talk about
Speaker 1: How the politics are coming together with the markets. Uh,
Speaker 1: right now the Dow is off nearly 500 points. That's
Speaker 1: actually closer to 400 points. The corn market
Speaker 1: 22, cents higher soybeans
Speaker 1: 30-35 cents higher in the wheat market,
Speaker 1: 50 plus cents higher.
Speaker 2: Are we tracking you might want to tip off Brian
Speaker 2: what sunflower oil prices are doing because around 80% of
Speaker 2: all trade comes from Russia and Ukraine. We, we spotted
Speaker 2: that early on in the numbers chip that watch it
Speaker 2: when I was out in Kansas.
Speaker 2: He said, you flower, people better watch this one because
Speaker 2: you're gonna have one heck of a rally.
Speaker 2: That's right,
Speaker 1: yep, yep. And, and along with the Kansas producers watching
Speaker 1: what's going on in the sunflower market, I want to
Speaker 1: tell everybody, have a great week out there and keep
Speaker 1: watching for those signals.