WEBVTT - So SAF Could Be a Big(ger) Deal 0:00:05.540 --> 0:00:12.310 Good morning, it is a chilly monday april 18th, 2022 0:00:12.760 --> 0:00:16.540 this is dc signal to noise since we last talked E. P. 0:00:16.540 --> 0:00:19.880 A made some important decisions regarding the availability of E 0:00:19.880 --> 0:00:24.280 15 which started some, many fires for the industry to 0:00:24.280 --> 0:00:24.950 put out. 0:00:25.540 --> 0:00:29.370 Fighting continued in Ukraine were basically just waiting for Mariupol 0:00:29.370 --> 0:00:34.520 to fall into Russian control and early start to spring planting, 0:00:34.520 --> 0:00:36.250 slipped into the past 0:00:36.640 --> 0:00:37.559 may corn 0:00:37.940 --> 0:00:42.510 overnight, $8.01 half cents. The cubs went on a six 0:00:42.510 --> 0:00:46.570 game road trip and came back with a 500 road record. 0:00:46.580 --> 0:00:50.839 Happy tax day. I'm agritalk host chip Flory. Good morning. 0:00:50.840 --> 0:00:54.090 Pro farmer policy analyst Jim Louis Mayer, how are you 0:00:54.090 --> 0:00:54.950 today buddy? 0:00:55.040 --> 0:00:58.140 Pretty good. The nationals continue to lose and it looks 0:00:58.140 --> 0:01:01.760 like we're just gonna, you know, train players to be 0:01:01.940 --> 0:01:05.840 sold to other teams. You 0:01:05.840 --> 0:01:10.459 know, there's in some worlds, they call that rebuilding, 0:01:10.470 --> 0:01:11.890 I'm 0:01:11.890 --> 0:01:12.610 just saying 0:01:12.610 --> 0:01:16.550 we just give them away trade turner shares, er et cetera. 0:01:16.550 --> 0:01:20.620 You know, uh it's a lot like the Detroit tigers 0:01:20.620 --> 0:01:22.850 and Minnesota twins, they do the same thing, 0:01:22.940 --> 0:01:26.830 yep, yep. And then you got even Schwarber, Schwarber was 0:01:26.830 --> 0:01:28.380 a one year deal for you. 0:01:28.390 --> 0:01:31.890 Yeah, just it's nuts. He was a fan favorite in 0:01:31.890 --> 0:01:33.650 all those home runs and they 0:01:34.240 --> 0:01:37.210 uh well I think now we know the reason why 0:01:37.209 --> 0:01:39.819 the learners looks like they want to sell the team 0:01:39.819 --> 0:01:41.150 so they're 0:01:41.160 --> 0:01:43.800 getting high cost off the off the ledger. 0:01:43.810 --> 0:01:49.940 Exactly, exactly. Um jim I think we need to, the, 0:01:49.950 --> 0:01:52.860 the most important story out there is Ukraine 0:01:53.240 --> 0:01:57.260 and what is happening there. But I think we should 0:01:57.260 --> 0:02:00.650 probably start with the ethanol happenings from last week because 0:02:01.140 --> 0:02:06.240 President biden came to Menlo Iowa last week and, and 0:02:06.240 --> 0:02:08.060 made it official said, 0:02:08.639 --> 0:02:10.950 well, I shouldn't say made it official, at least it's 0:02:10.950 --> 0:02:14.079 official for him. Uh, said that E 15 will be 0:02:14.080 --> 0:02:17.730 available this summer, june 1 to september 15th. 0:02:17.740 --> 0:02:22.860 Yes. And then we have the, the same types of questions, 0:02:22.860 --> 0:02:27.170 what's the impact chip and with the vast majority of 0:02:27.169 --> 0:02:28.650 service stations not 0:02:28.840 --> 0:02:30.850 caring, not having 0:02:31.139 --> 0:02:34.780 E 15 pumps. Of course it's very important to Iowa 0:02:34.780 --> 0:02:38.320 in states like Minnesota. So I'm not gonna, I'm not 0:02:38.320 --> 0:02:41.710 gonna say it wasn't an important announcement, it depends on 0:02:41.710 --> 0:02:45.500 the state, but see this goes back years ago, chip, 0:02:45.510 --> 0:02:50.459 when you had a disagreement within the ethanol lobbying 0:02:50.740 --> 0:02:51.850 community 0:02:52.139 --> 0:02:56.560 about infrastructure are the lack of it, the necessary wells 0:02:56.560 --> 0:03:00.980 at stations and the, and the, uh, both E 85 0:03:01.120 --> 0:03:04.850 E 15 pumps and uh, and that was a result 0:03:04.850 --> 0:03:09.090 really of why we got growth energy as, as a group, 0:03:09.100 --> 0:03:13.750 You know, looking back and they are still lagging behind. 0:03:13.750 --> 0:03:16.560 And I asked, I was asking, uh, 0:03:16.740 --> 0:03:19.550 in two of my speeches last week, what's the impact 0:03:19.550 --> 0:03:21.990 of this? And it's, it's really, when you look at 0:03:21.990 --> 0:03:26.149 aggregate lee again, it's not a negative, but it's relatively 0:03:26.150 --> 0:03:29.530 minimal to me. It's what we, we need to get 0:03:29.530 --> 0:03:32.060 those pumps out there 0:03:32.139 --> 0:03:34.780 right and there's some more money available for that when 0:03:34.780 --> 0:03:38.260 we talked with Secretary Vilsack last week on agritalk, 0:03:38.540 --> 0:03:43.110 Uh, he made quick mention that there is $100 million 0:03:43.110 --> 0:03:52.190 15 available to more places. And one thing that, that 0:03:52.190 --> 0:03:54.340 I thought was interesting Jim was he said when the 0:03:54.340 --> 0:03:58.020 funds become available, they get snatched up there. There's demand 0:03:58.020 --> 0:03:58.760 for the funds. 0:03:59.440 --> 0:04:03.060 Well then they should, you know, keep making that available 0:04:03.060 --> 0:04:07.040 because again, that goes under infrastructure and I wish we 0:04:07.040 --> 0:04:10.180 would've put even more in the infrastructure bill because that's, 0:04:10.370 --> 0:04:14.150 that's major for the industry because these states like Iowa 0:04:14.150 --> 0:04:18.010 and Minnesota are doing the E-15 year round individually or 0:04:18.010 --> 0:04:19.260 at least trying to. 0:04:19.540 --> 0:04:24.650 But because they don't have the faith that the federal 0:04:24.650 --> 0:04:28.680 government is, is going to do it. But if you 0:04:28.680 --> 0:04:31.830 have the pumps that gives congress a little more momentum 0:04:31.830 --> 0:04:32.650 to go ahead. 0:04:32.660 --> 0:04:36.960 Right. Right. The other thing that secretary Vilsack said was 0:04:36.960 --> 0:04:39.760 that the $700 million dollars 0:04:39.940 --> 0:04:43.150 in covid aid for ethanol producers 0:04:43.540 --> 0:04:47.980 should finally make its way to those producers by the 0:04:47.980 --> 0:04:48.760 end of this month. 0:04:49.240 --> 0:04:49.750 Mm hmm. 0:04:50.339 --> 0:04:52.600 You want, Did he say? Why it took so long? 0:04:52.610 --> 0:04:56.430 No, I just said thank God. 0:04:57.110 --> 0:05:02.020 Yes. Yes. Yes. So there's usually more answers that there's 0:05:02.020 --> 0:05:06.380 more questions than answers on biofuels policy and, and this 0:05:06.380 --> 0:05:07.760 continues to be the 0:05:07.940 --> 0:05:11.660 seen. But again, the announcement was a positive, 0:05:11.740 --> 0:05:16.370 but we we really have to keep focusing on that infrastructure. 0:05:16.380 --> 0:05:21.320 Yeah, yeah. Um, and, and I do have to mention 0:05:21.320 --> 0:05:25.570 that every time that ethanol moves back into the spotlight, uh, 0:05:25.580 --> 0:05:28.669 it's an opportunity for the haters to come out in droves, 0:05:28.670 --> 0:05:29.859 which they did 0:05:30.230 --> 0:05:33.950 this time. The focus really. And I think it's because 0:05:34.240 --> 0:05:34.860 of 0:05:35.529 --> 0:05:39.960 just kind of the way the whole thing is, is assumed. 0:05:40.339 --> 0:05:42.560 But there was an assumption that, 0:05:43.040 --> 0:05:46.490 Or there is an assumption that the reason that E-15 0:05:46.490 --> 0:05:49.890 isn't available from June 1 to September 15 is because 0:05:49.900 --> 0:05:52.870 there's a higher potential for smog during the summer months 0:05:52.870 --> 0:05:57.560 with the 15, which is exactly the opposite of the truth. 0:05:57.640 --> 0:06:03.010 Um, there's lower emissions from E 15. There's even lower 0:06:03.010 --> 0:06:07.670 in the 20, even lower in the 30. But just 0:06:07.680 --> 0:06:10.849 sticking with the 15. It all goes back to the 0:06:10.860 --> 0:06:14.570 Clean Air Act written 50 years ago and it was 0:06:14.570 --> 0:06:17.860 worded poorly. That's the whole problem here. 0:06:17.940 --> 0:06:21.460 Which is what you're saying is we shouldn't have the 0:06:21.460 --> 0:06:24.260 requirement anyway for the summer months then. Right, 0:06:24.839 --> 0:06:26.550 well, it shouldn't be necessary. 0:06:26.560 --> 0:06:27.730 It shouldn't be necessary. 0:06:27.730 --> 0:06:31.920 Right? The waiver should the waiver should not be necessary. Uh, 0:06:31.930 --> 0:06:33.360 and i 0:06:34.339 --> 0:06:37.540 It's, it's going to be difficult to reopen 50 year 0:06:37.540 --> 0:06:40.360 old legislation, the Clean Clean Air Act and try to 0:06:40.360 --> 0:06:41.260 get that change. 0:06:41.260 --> 0:06:42.950 Not in this environment. Yeah. 0:06:42.960 --> 0:06:44.099 No. Yeah, no way 0:06:44.110 --> 0:06:47.430 not there. It's just, it's almost 50 50 split. You 0:06:47.430 --> 0:06:51.089 wouldn't be able to get it through the Senate, uh, 0:06:51.100 --> 0:06:54.610 let alone the House and you have your deniers out there, 0:06:54.610 --> 0:06:57.050 you have skill, some chip that, you know, 0:06:57.240 --> 0:07:01.120 let's say it takes more energy to make ethanol. That's, 0:07:01.120 --> 0:07:02.420 that's totally untrue. 0:07:02.430 --> 0:07:08.070 Right, Right. Just using outdated information when they, when those 0:07:08.070 --> 0:07:12.050 claims are made. Uh, another thing that is happening at 0:07:12.050 --> 0:07:16.410 the administration right now referring to the infrastructure package that 0:07:16.410 --> 0:07:17.250 you talked about, 0:07:17.540 --> 0:07:20.670 There's gonna be a tour of some of the highest 0:07:20.670 --> 0:07:25.550 ranking uh administration officials. I believe it starts this week. 0:07:25.560 --> 0:07:29.090 It does, it does. And Biden himself is going out 0:07:29.090 --> 0:07:33.750 to in a in a host of officials including Vilsack. 0:07:33.760 --> 0:07:34.250 So 0:07:34.440 --> 0:07:38.220 yeah, there and, and I applaud them for selling it because, 0:07:38.220 --> 0:07:40.350 you know, let's face it, the biden administration. 0:07:40.440 --> 0:07:44.570 But biden himself is still tanking further in the polls 0:07:44.570 --> 0:07:48.920 and uh former President Obama said at least he thinks 0:07:48.920 --> 0:07:51.290 that democrats have a story to tell. They better start 0:07:51.290 --> 0:07:51.860 telling it. 0:07:52.340 --> 0:07:54.380 Yeah, 0:07:54.380 --> 0:07:58.470 they, that's exactly right if they're gonna stand a chance 0:07:58.470 --> 0:08:02.370 this fall. Um, Hey, as a reminder to everyone, the 0:08:02.370 --> 0:08:06.080 comments tab is open on, on your page. Go ahead 0:08:06.080 --> 0:08:09.810 and click on that and you can send us a message. 0:08:09.820 --> 0:08:12.350 Good morning Melody. It's good to talk with you this morning. 0:08:12.540 --> 0:08:14.720 But you can send us a message and we'll be 0:08:14.720 --> 0:08:16.860 sure to get your comments in 0:08:17.240 --> 0:08:21.110 uh, jim anything else from from last week that you 0:08:21.120 --> 0:08:23.150 that you feel like we need to highlight. 0:08:23.940 --> 0:08:28.980 Well, we got the confirmation that the leading ceo s 0:08:28.980 --> 0:08:32.959 from the meatpacking companies are indeed, uh, were asked 0:08:33.440 --> 0:08:36.860 Uh to attend, they didn't put a specific date but 0:08:36.870 --> 0:08:41.459 before they indicated it would be an April 27 earring 0:08:41.460 --> 0:08:44.780 on the House Side Committee. So we did get confirmation 0:08:44.780 --> 0:08:47.060 on that. I think we talked about it as a 0:08:47.059 --> 0:08:49.360 spec piece on Mondays. 0:08:49.740 --> 0:08:52.410 Uh yeah you know you know monday's program. So we 0:08:52.410 --> 0:08:57.240 got that confirmation. Uh So that that could be revealing 0:08:57.240 --> 0:08:59.210 some people say that the C. E. O. S. Don't 0:08:59.210 --> 0:09:01.670 know the ins and outs that I think that they 0:09:01.670 --> 0:09:05.400 know their industry uh that they'll have staff with them. 0:09:05.400 --> 0:09:08.059 So I think it will be the hearing Jeff 0:09:08.440 --> 0:09:10.900 on on on this issue. And we're going to see 0:09:10.900 --> 0:09:14.490 if the finger pointing continues and I can't wait for 0:09:14.490 --> 0:09:17.930 that hearing to tear out some significant questions. 0:09:19.040 --> 0:09:21.050 Uh The 0:09:21.640 --> 0:09:26.469 when I had the let's talk about food prices a 0:09:26.470 --> 0:09:29.150 bit for for a moment when I had the conversation 0:09:29.150 --> 0:09:31.060 with Secretary Vilsack last week, 0:09:31.440 --> 0:09:36.850 I was listening very closely for three very specific words 0:09:36.850 --> 0:09:37.560 and 0:09:38.040 --> 0:09:40.699 I'm I'm glad that he did not say them on 0:09:40.710 --> 0:09:43.860 on a great talk but the Putin price hike 0:09:44.640 --> 0:09:45.360 a 0:09:46.240 --> 0:09:47.160 jim. 0:09:48.040 --> 0:09:48.959 I've got 0:09:49.740 --> 0:09:51.560 I've got some liberal friends 0:09:52.440 --> 0:09:56.390 and when they hear the Putin here the administration say 0:09:56.390 --> 0:09:59.360 Putin price hike. It makes them want to puke. 0:09:59.940 --> 0:10:00.440 Yeah. 0:10:01.240 --> 0:10:04.710 Yeah because this was well both the gasoline price, it 0:10:04.720 --> 0:10:09.090 has extended the gas price. But you had what about 0:10:09.090 --> 0:10:14.600 a dollar uh increase before February 24 the the legit 0:10:14.600 --> 0:10:17.950 onset of the invasion and now are 0:10:18.240 --> 0:10:21.500 uh but yeah the food prices to they were going 0:10:21.510 --> 0:10:23.059 up and uh 0:10:23.440 --> 0:10:27.780 and now it's it's amplified because of the supply problems 0:10:27.790 --> 0:10:32.300 that you know chain problems and yes it's aggravated and 0:10:32.300 --> 0:10:33.760 will last longer 0:10:34.140 --> 0:10:38.960 as a result of the invasion war because of the 0:10:38.970 --> 0:10:43.610 market is still trying to ascertain how much of the 0:10:43.610 --> 0:10:48.890 Ukrainian crop will either not be produced or cannot be exported. 0:10:48.890 --> 0:10:53.660 And all are the alternative routes uh other ports, 0:10:53.840 --> 0:10:58.490 uh land shipments etcetera. And so that's still a question 0:10:58.490 --> 0:10:59.750 mark there. But 0:10:59.840 --> 0:11:02.800 so again I I applaud the secretary for not taking 0:11:02.800 --> 0:11:04.760 an easy way out that nobody believes 0:11:04.760 --> 0:11:06.200 anyway. 0:11:07.040 --> 0:11:10.540 Okay. Yeah. Yeah let's let's talk a little bit more 0:11:10.540 --> 0:11:15.670 about the supply chain because that shutdown than in China 0:11:15.670 --> 0:11:20.130 400 million people was the last count that I had 0:11:20.140 --> 0:11:20.500 a 0:11:20.500 --> 0:11:24.330 Little rounded rounding a little under 400 million. But that's 0:11:24.330 --> 0:11:25.959 a lot. 0:11:26.240 --> 0:11:28.360 That's the U. S. Population. 0:11:28.540 --> 0:11:33.719 Yes. First started the best thinkers and sources, we had 0:11:33.720 --> 0:11:35.760 chips said this is going to be 0:11:36.140 --> 0:11:39.740 a major impact on the supply chain again. I mean 0:11:39.740 --> 0:11:43.000 look at Tesla's trying to get those plants up and 0:11:43.000 --> 0:11:47.030 up and running again today. By the way. Apple computer 0:11:47.030 --> 0:11:51.420 has some uh chip vendors over there even though I 0:11:51.420 --> 0:11:54.290 think they've done a good job of making their own chips. 0:11:54.300 --> 0:11:58.740 Uh And so yeah this is going to this just 0:11:58.740 --> 0:12:02.520 shows that this issue has legs on it now. We 0:12:02.520 --> 0:12:06.179 did get a report that some shipping rates have gone 0:12:06.179 --> 0:12:09.020 down this year And in fact since 0:12:09.100 --> 0:12:10.000 the U. S. In 0:12:10.000 --> 0:12:14.080 the US and since mid March. So that'll just hopefully 0:12:14.080 --> 0:12:17.680 make us products more competitive in the export market because 0:12:17.679 --> 0:12:19.760 the wheat market needs it because 0:12:20.040 --> 0:12:23.000 we're high priced and it's hard to sell us weed 0:12:23.000 --> 0:12:24.059 in the export market. 0:12:24.440 --> 0:12:28.370 Yeah us truck rates have gone down. Um I heard 0:12:28.370 --> 0:12:32.140 the barge rate market described as a collapse last week. 0:12:32.140 --> 0:12:34.230 I don't know if it was that bad or not 0:12:34.230 --> 0:12:40.290 but uh it has fallen significantly. Uh One of the 0:12:40.290 --> 0:12:43.089 things that I wanted to focus on here jim is 0:12:43.090 --> 0:12:43.660 that 0:12:44.040 --> 0:12:48.840 they are not moving food from ports into the interior 0:12:48.840 --> 0:12:49.860 for that 0:12:50.240 --> 0:12:55.849 a huge number of people. Uh the food shortage conversation 0:12:56.440 --> 0:13:01.569 not not just around china but around the world I 0:13:01.580 --> 0:13:04.860 fear is going to ramp up in the week ahead 0:13:05.340 --> 0:13:07.050 and that 0:13:07.440 --> 0:13:09.660 you could have an impact on 0:13:10.140 --> 0:13:13.550 on on some potential decisions made in in D. C. 0:13:13.550 --> 0:13:14.420 Going forward. 0:13:14.429 --> 0:13:16.860 It will. And now the I. M. F. And World 0:13:16.860 --> 0:13:20.120 Bank are having their spring meetings all of this week 0:13:20.550 --> 0:13:21.120 and 0:13:21.130 --> 0:13:25.520 last week. Uh U. S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen 0:13:25.840 --> 0:13:29.590 called for a separate meeting to look into the food 0:13:29.590 --> 0:13:31.860 price situation, supply demand 0:13:31.940 --> 0:13:36.660 etcetera. So this has the highest levels uh attention. This 0:13:36.660 --> 0:13:40.620 is not going to go away anytime soon. And even 0:13:40.620 --> 0:13:44.530 in the US we're going to have with logistics concerns 0:13:44.530 --> 0:13:49.070 etcetera we're going to see USDA keep increasing their food 0:13:49.070 --> 0:13:50.060 price forecast. 0:13:50.940 --> 0:13:55.610 Yeah tell me more about the I. M. F. And 0:13:55.610 --> 0:13:59.309 World Bank meetings that are happening this week. Is it 0:13:59.320 --> 0:14:00.290 in D. C. 0:14:00.300 --> 0:14:05.120 Yes it's in D. C. Each year and every Tuesday 0:14:05.130 --> 0:14:09.179 uh they issue the world economic outlook report. So we're 0:14:09.179 --> 0:14:11.340 going to see them go down in a number of 0:14:11.340 --> 0:14:14.360 countries and especially china, 0:14:14.540 --> 0:14:17.830 we saw china come out with their GDP first quarter 0:14:17.830 --> 0:14:18.760 number 0:14:19.140 --> 0:14:22.720 literally overnight, you know monday at the time and it 0:14:22.720 --> 0:14:26.060 was 4.8% a little higher than what the trade thought. 0:14:26.070 --> 0:14:31.110 But below their so called goal of 5.5%. But they're 0:14:31.110 --> 0:14:35.610 they're downturn is going to continue now are less growth 0:14:35.610 --> 0:14:36.560 than they want 0:14:36.940 --> 0:14:40.750 because of the problems we said earlier in shanghai and 0:14:40.750 --> 0:14:43.390 other countries. But with the I. M. F. And World 0:14:43.390 --> 0:14:46.460 Bank in town you're gonna see a lot of updates 0:14:46.460 --> 0:14:50.130 over the next few days under the U. S. And 0:14:50.130 --> 0:14:55.890 european economies and the impact of this war. Just just 0:14:55.900 --> 0:14:59.490 you know, continuing to uh unfold and on the food 0:14:59.490 --> 0:15:03.490 policy area. I think that they're going to plead with 0:15:03.490 --> 0:15:09.600 countries not to re uh restrict uh there uh exports. 0:15:09.600 --> 0:15:12.860 I think that'll be a clear message out of yelling 0:15:12.860 --> 0:15:15.360 and and her and and her counterparts. 0:15:15.440 --> 0:15:19.400 Well which gets me to another topic that I wanted 0:15:19.400 --> 0:15:21.600 to discuss, there's going to be 0:15:22.040 --> 0:15:25.800 more conversation about. Listen if the price of food is 0:15:25.800 --> 0:15:28.930 going up in the US, let's not send as much overseas. 0:15:28.940 --> 0:15:30.870 It always happens, 0:15:30.880 --> 0:15:33.160 yep, yep. Uh huh. 0:15:33.540 --> 0:15:37.530 The odds of putting some sort of a restriction on 0:15:37.530 --> 0:15:39.970 US exports still very low 0:15:39.980 --> 0:15:43.350 low. But I will tell you the pressure will be 0:15:43.350 --> 0:15:46.950 severe if you have a U. S. Corn and our 0:15:46.950 --> 0:15:48.150 soybean crop 0:15:48.540 --> 0:15:53.810 below trend yield chip. Because then then what over $8 0:15:53.810 --> 0:15:57.040 what are you talking about for corn? And and then 0:15:57.040 --> 0:15:59.520 I I we're going to have to reassess at that 0:15:59.520 --> 0:16:02.980 juncture and it's too early. We're into this to season 0:16:02.980 --> 0:16:06.000 that I always call too much rain, Too little rain. 0:16:06.010 --> 0:16:07.650 Too much heat, too little heat. 0:16:07.740 --> 0:16:10.160 And we've got to go through that 0:16:10.440 --> 0:16:14.030 for, you know, you know, price volatility. But if you're 0:16:14.030 --> 0:16:16.040 in a while I don't care whether you're a republican 0:16:16.040 --> 0:16:19.050 administration or democratic administration. 0:16:19.640 --> 0:16:23.430 Uh when you hear the pressure on food prices, its 0:16:23.430 --> 0:16:26.560 attacks just like gas is a tax 0:16:27.040 --> 0:16:30.980 and they hear it and they usually want some way 0:16:30.980 --> 0:16:31.960 to alleviate it. 0:16:32.340 --> 0:16:32.850 Right. 0:16:33.340 --> 0:16:34.360 Right, okay, 0:16:34.840 --> 0:16:38.970 let's go to the southern border texas. Governor Abbott is 0:16:38.980 --> 0:16:42.760 feels like he's taking this problem into his own hands. 0:16:43.540 --> 0:16:45.360 Uh Your Abbot? 0:16:45.740 --> 0:16:46.700 Yes, 0:16:46.700 --> 0:16:51.480 Well two things that he's chipping off people to Washington D. C. 0:16:51.480 --> 0:16:54.740 That's coming into the border and I always find that 0:16:54.750 --> 0:17:00.340 amusing and insightful that we have to feel it here 0:17:00.340 --> 0:17:01.570 as well. 0:17:01.940 --> 0:17:06.230 And he uh he did for a couple of days 0:17:06.230 --> 0:17:10.630 and the and the pressure got so severe restricting the 0:17:10.640 --> 0:17:14.570 trucks coming in from Mexico Jeff and that was really 0:17:14.580 --> 0:17:18.710 affecting the US poultry market for, in, in, in, uh, 0:17:18.720 --> 0:17:19.850 in particular. 0:17:20.240 --> 0:17:24.420 And the truckers, uh, jobs because they have to sit 0:17:24.420 --> 0:17:25.460 in line for 0:17:25.840 --> 0:17:31.320 so long. So that's been alleviated as of friday. So, uh, 0:17:31.330 --> 0:17:36.119 it looks like they're rolling again for the 22 country trade. 0:17:36.130 --> 0:17:39.550 But on the immigration front, yes, texas is, uh, 0:17:39.940 --> 0:17:43.050 trying to deal with this. And you have a number 0:17:43.050 --> 0:17:46.480 of democrats, the moderate democrats who are, who are going 0:17:46.480 --> 0:17:47.560 to be in very 0:17:47.940 --> 0:17:54.429 close elections with their Republican counterparts saying, uh, biden's um, 0:17:54.440 --> 0:17:59.270 rule 42 is really going to add still more pressure 0:17:59.270 --> 0:18:01.899 on on the southern border. So we're gonna see ahem 0:18:01.900 --> 0:18:05.120 bridge again coming up if he doesn't back off of, 0:18:05.130 --> 0:18:06.770 of uh, 0:18:06.940 --> 0:18:08.350 of that regulation ship. 0:18:08.640 --> 0:18:12.770 Okay, alright, let's go to the comments. Melody is wondering, 0:18:12.770 --> 0:18:16.800 are there direct links between the increased soy plantings? The 0:18:16.800 --> 0:18:20.670 reduction of meat production and the introduction of miracle meets, 0:18:21.340 --> 0:18:21.850 I don't, 0:18:22.640 --> 0:18:24.270 mm hmm. Go ahead. 0:18:24.280 --> 0:18:26.930 I don't know whether I'd call a miracle. Meet you. 0:18:26.930 --> 0:18:34.359 You mean the non meat meat? Okay. Um, the, the uh, 0:18:34.840 --> 0:18:38.500 I think it's the fertilizer price primarily on 0:18:38.510 --> 0:18:39.419 this year for 0:18:39.420 --> 0:18:43.580 this year on that one. You maybe have some relative 0:18:43.590 --> 0:18:47.120 to the renewable diesel, but that's more income as well. 0:18:47.119 --> 0:18:49.170 But maybe they're getting ready. 0:18:50.430 --> 0:18:52.740 There was, there was so much, there was so much 0:18:52.740 --> 0:18:56.350 talk about the renewable diesel over the winter that I think, 0:18:57.040 --> 0:18:59.990 uh, some of the acreage increase that we got was 0:18:59.990 --> 0:19:03.389 a bit premature on soybeans. And the soybean market is 0:19:03.390 --> 0:19:05.540 trying to give some of those acres back over to corn. 0:19:05.550 --> 0:19:08.690 Yeah. And the, the ratio right now, correct me if 0:19:08.690 --> 0:19:12.070 I'm wrong, chip corn, soybeans, you no favors corn. And 0:19:12.070 --> 0:19:14.919 it's such suggests that we could have what up to 0:19:14.920 --> 0:19:18.359 another million acres more than the planting intentions. 0:19:18.440 --> 0:19:20.430 I, I think it'd be pretty easy to move two 0:19:20.430 --> 0:19:23.119 million acres from beans back over to corn. 0:19:24.390 --> 0:19:28.930 Yeah. But, but again, we're seeing a potential shift in 0:19:28.930 --> 0:19:32.660 the future for this, uh, more soybean acres. If some 0:19:32.660 --> 0:19:33.560 of these things, 0:19:34.040 --> 0:19:37.960 uh, you will pan out, especially relative to renewable diesel 0:19:37.960 --> 0:19:41.320 wherever I go in my speeches, I get a lot 0:19:41.320 --> 0:19:45.860 of questions on that topic Now. It needs, especially the 0:19:45.869 --> 0:19:48.770 sustainable aviation fuel s a f 0:19:49.140 --> 0:19:53.520 Now they're in the pending legislation in Congress, there's a 0:19:53.520 --> 0:19:57.730 dollar 25 a gallon incentive, if you will, subsidies, if 0:19:57.730 --> 0:19:58.670 you're against it 0:19:59.040 --> 0:20:04.639 for that, that that will make such fuel eventually competitive. 0:20:04.640 --> 0:20:08.190 But there's, it's still gonna be costly. But this is 0:20:08.190 --> 0:20:12.960 where the carbon mitigation becomes so important to renewable diesel. 0:20:13.340 --> 0:20:17.170 Once this country gets into full 0:20:17.540 --> 0:20:24.390 carbon mitigation policy, the airlines are going to need carbon offsets. 0:20:24.550 --> 0:20:29.300 That's where this essay f sustainable aviation fuel is going 0:20:29.300 --> 0:20:33.380 to look so attractive to them because they can buy 0:20:33.380 --> 0:20:33.670 it 0:20:34.040 --> 0:20:37.359 and have that serve as a carbon offset. 0:20:37.840 --> 0:20:41.619 And that's why you're seeing a number of of the, 0:20:41.630 --> 0:20:45.700 you know, soybean processing plants either built new are being 0:20:45.710 --> 0:20:49.260 expanded because it looks like the industry thinks this is 0:20:49.260 --> 0:20:51.270 going to go, you know, be ago chip 0:20:51.280 --> 0:20:51.760 well. 0:20:51.840 --> 0:20:55.609 But that's I agree that that's part of the reason 0:20:55.609 --> 0:20:58.770 for the for the soybean processing but 0:20:59.040 --> 0:21:04.470 S. A. F. Is an ethanol play? It A. D. M. Starting, 0:21:04.480 --> 0:21:08.140 is it in 2022? Or is it uh it may 0:21:08.140 --> 0:21:13.000 be 2023 but ADM some at some point in the 0:21:13.010 --> 0:21:18.660 near future is committing 900 million gallons of ethanol to 0:21:19.340 --> 0:21:26.100 sustainable aviation fuel production. So this is very much this 0:21:26.100 --> 0:21:29.060 is ethanol's play in an E. V. World. 0:21:30.040 --> 0:21:32.460 Okay, so if if 0:21:32.840 --> 0:21:33.590 if we 0:21:33.590 --> 0:21:37.850 make that transition to E. V. S, I'm still not convinced. 0:21:38.340 --> 0:21:44.100 Um the the play then for ethanol becomes the aviation 0:21:44.100 --> 0:21:49.700 fuel market. Uh Secretary Vilsack on on, well last week 0:21:49.700 --> 0:21:55.350 on Agritalk said that it's a 35 billion gallon market. Uh, 0:21:55.540 --> 0:21:59.820 when we talked with Jeff Cooper from the renewable fuels association, 0:22:00.040 --> 0:22:03.850 He said that it's closer to a 24 billion gallon market. 0:22:04.440 --> 0:22:08.390 When we talked with Pete Meyer from S. And P 0:22:08.390 --> 0:22:15.070 Global Platts. He said that the the ethanol production that 0:22:15.070 --> 0:22:19.460 we've got right now could produce about 8.8 0:22:19.940 --> 0:22:23.770 I believe it was 8.8, maybe 8.9 billion gallons of 0:22:23.770 --> 0:22:28.639 sustainable aviation fuel feeding about one third of that market. 0:22:28.650 --> 0:22:29.360 So 0:22:29.840 --> 0:22:33.740 the growth potential is unbelievable. 0:22:35.150 --> 0:22:38.860 This is where you don't get to negative relative to 0:22:38.859 --> 0:22:43.580 the renewable fuel standard program. And even if you assume 0:22:43.850 --> 0:22:47.650 the continued increase, what you have been seeing and you 0:22:47.650 --> 0:22:48.859