Speaker 1: Good morning it is monday october 10th 2022 this is D. C.
Speaker 1: Signal to noise since we last talked
Speaker 1: opec plus countries cut output by a reported two million
Speaker 1: barrels per day. The ingram barge company declared force majeure
Speaker 1: due to low water levels on the Mississippi River. President
Speaker 1: biden warned of a nuclear Armageddon. The september jobs data
Speaker 1: was strong enough that traders anticipate a rate hike.
Speaker 1: The baseball post season got underway and ended for some teams.
Speaker 1: My cyclones can't put the dad gum ball in the
Speaker 1: end zone and election Day 2022 is just 29 days away.
Speaker 1: Jim Wiesemeyer pro farmer policy analyst. Happy columbus day Jim.
Speaker 1: I'm not not surprised to see you at work even
Speaker 1: though today is a federal holiday.
Speaker 2: Our indigenous day. We have to
Speaker 2: Yeah, a little walk there. I was so depressed over
Speaker 2: the weekend when the Cardinals lost two straight that I
Speaker 2: went out and bought a series eight. I watch, I watch,
Speaker 2: I watch, I watch. Uh, so I'm happy again.
Speaker 1: Well okay, you know sometimes you know the old saying
Speaker 1: is that you can't buy happiness but evidently that's that's
Speaker 1: not
Speaker 2: true. I think that's a myth.
Speaker 1: Welcome to you all. You all glad that you are
Speaker 1: with us. I'm agritalk host chip Flory and uh Good
Speaker 1: morning Melody. Melody already gave us a shout out there
Speaker 1: in the comments tab if you want to be part
Speaker 1: of the conversation or have any questions for jim or
Speaker 1: me go ahead and put them into the comments tab
Speaker 1: and we will try to answer them and if we
Speaker 1: can't answer them today,
Speaker 1: I'll make sure that jim stays on it and find
Speaker 1: you an answer by this time next week.
Speaker 2: Yeah. And chip before I forget, I'll be evening, I'll
Speaker 2: join a number of people at a nice restaurant. My
Speaker 2: favorite one, actually one of my favorites, you know, try
Speaker 2: to real Alberto
Speaker 2: up on the hill, uh, to meet and greet texas
Speaker 2: A and M. Honor students and we do this twice
Speaker 2: a year. David Wasserman will be there Jeff Harrison. And
Speaker 2: I always look forward to see the young people coming
Speaker 2: into the act sector.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's, that's outstanding. Um, I, I would like to
Speaker 1: get a report on the conversation. We don't have to
Speaker 1: get into the details, but just the topics that they
Speaker 1: want to discuss.
Speaker 2: It will
Speaker 1: be interesting. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Uh, jim let's start with one of the, with some
Speaker 1: of the things that happened last week and the,
Speaker 1: The move by OPEC plus to cut oil output two
Speaker 1: million barrels per day.
Speaker 1: Uh, this is really painted President biden and his energy
Speaker 1: policy into a corner, hasn't it?
Speaker 2: Very much. And it's got more than a few democrats
Speaker 2: worried that, uh, the energy prices, although down today a
Speaker 2: little bit that's prob
Speaker 2: Taking because we had a rather sharp increase in both
Speaker 2: the us and you know, Brent crude oil last week
Speaker 2: chip and I think most of the analysts I've talked
Speaker 2: with within the oil industry say you're heading at or
Speaker 2: near $100. And that means continued higher gas prices
Speaker 2: in the United States. And you know when you see
Speaker 2: that every day those big signs on price per gallon
Speaker 2: and that will have political implications
Speaker 1: basically what Opec plus is doing here is they are
Speaker 1: taking off of the market. What
Speaker 1: the administration put onto the market by pulling stocks out
Speaker 1: of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, correct?
Speaker 2: Absolutely. And and and it could
Speaker 1: have saw that coming jim.
Speaker 2: Yeah I know and it's a geopolitical pushback on biden.
Speaker 2: You know, earlier this year, you know he went over
Speaker 2: with fist in hand and uh you know encouraged them
Speaker 2: to increase production and they've done the opposite. So uh
Speaker 2: the frazzled relations between our country and Saudi Arabia is
Speaker 2: getting worse. Not better. Yeah.
Speaker 1: So let's stay on this for just a bit because
Speaker 1: aren't some
Speaker 1: aren't some members of the Senate considering a piece of
Speaker 1: legislation that would basically say no what is it? No.
Speaker 1: Opec
Speaker 2: opec it's been it's been bandied about before. But you
Speaker 2: know you have to go to the W. T. O.
Speaker 2: Give me a break
Speaker 2: that'll be several years in the making. So it but
Speaker 2: they are reviewing where everything's on the table including export controls.
Speaker 2: Again price controls basically price controls and Wall Street Journal
Speaker 2: this morning has an excellent article basically concluding price controls
Speaker 2: don't work. And history shows that but they have some
Speaker 2: short term
Speaker 2: gains. But long term you'll have lower lower prices than
Speaker 2: you would have otherwise, at least in the U. S.
Speaker 2: When you're trying to control price. I mean higher prices.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, I was gonna save this for a little
Speaker 1: bit later in the conversation, but as long as we're
Speaker 1: there talking about what the biden administration is considering, which
Speaker 1: is everything is on the table. National Economic Council director
Speaker 1: brian de suggested that one of biden's options could include
Speaker 1: banning
Speaker 1: exports of american oil.
Speaker 2: It's just that you talk about a slap in the
Speaker 2: face to eu I don't think they're well they shouldn't
Speaker 2: do it. But if they do do it, we have
Speaker 2: more geopolitical problems. They're just not an easy solution. Short
Speaker 2: term solution here because of the inability of our energy
Speaker 2: policy not to have encouraged us oil production. Uh, and
Speaker 2: you're seeing it in the output chip, we should be
Speaker 2: well above
Speaker 2: in the million barrels per day had we continued the
Speaker 2: energy policies under the prior administration, That's that's obviously
Speaker 1: well, and I think you can argue that if we
Speaker 1: would have continued to produce and now there would have
Speaker 1: been some ebbs and flows in production based on demand
Speaker 1: caused by the shutdown. I I I understand
Speaker 2: that.
Speaker 1: Exactly. But if we would have continued to grow the
Speaker 1: industry as it was growing,
Speaker 1: we would probably be in the 15 million barrel per
Speaker 1: day range. Something like that. Uh I don't think I,
Speaker 1: this may be saying too much check me on it.
Speaker 1: I don't think we'd be looking at Putin's invasion of
Speaker 1: Ukraine because he wouldn't have any leverage.
Speaker 2: Uh, it, I think you make a point that, and
Speaker 2: for other reasons, the afghan can pull out with the
Speaker 2: energy policy coupled with the early days of the threats.
Speaker 2: Remember when Russia was threatening, uh, some of the thing,
Speaker 2: things that biden and, and, and his administration officials said
Speaker 2: gave Putin a clear uh, confidence to invade and actually
Speaker 2: many people in the biden administration thought it would be
Speaker 2: over in a week.
Speaker 1: Right, Right, okay. Also on the list of things that
Speaker 1: the biden administration is considering, even though we just said,
Speaker 1: and I mean, this has got to be understood that
Speaker 1: the reason that opec plus cut is because the administration
Speaker 1: was releasing oil from the spr, they're considering additional releases
Speaker 1: from the Spr to counter this move.
Speaker 1: Does the ball not keep rolling if that happens?
Speaker 2: Well, there's, there's murkiness on that because it's been said
Speaker 2: they're looking at 10 more million barrels in the month
Speaker 2: of november. We don't know again, I want to clarify,
Speaker 2: I sought a clarification and others as well whether that's
Speaker 2: part of the original, remember the 180 million barrels or not. They,
Speaker 2: they initially said at the White House that was going
Speaker 2: to end at the end of
Speaker 2: october, but now they're saying they're gonna piecemeal this into november,
Speaker 2: but I'll tell you something, the energy people tell me
Speaker 2: uh you know, chip is that when you go further
Speaker 2: into that reserve, it's oil, that's harder and harder to
Speaker 2: process
Speaker 1: to
Speaker 2: Refine. So it's not gonna be as easy as those
Speaker 2: first around 200, you know, million barrels are
Speaker 1: um they're also considering a tax holiday. I don't even
Speaker 1: want to really get into that too much
Speaker 2: because
Speaker 1: exactly uh the the Fed chairman and the Fed governors
Speaker 1: are jawboning down economic activity by talking about how much
Speaker 1: pain there's going to be. Well there the administration is
Speaker 1: trying to jawbone down gas prices by blaming those retailers
Speaker 1: out there and saying doggone it, you're buying gas cheaper
Speaker 1: than what you're selling it for.
Speaker 1: Well,
Speaker 2: you can just go, I'm working on my new speech
Speaker 2: Power point and there's one line I have is uh
Speaker 2: price gouging charges by the administration colon, pick your industry.
Speaker 2: You know, we've seen them price gouge about the meat industry,
Speaker 2: about the fertilizer industry, about the seed companies and of
Speaker 2: course the oil.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Um
Speaker 1: and of course then this last one, the highest gas
Speaker 1: prices in the country are in California.
Speaker 1: Um and a big part of that is because of
Speaker 1: the taxes, the state taxes on it. So to counter
Speaker 1: that uh Governor Newsom is considering additional taxes on the
Speaker 1: processors and Refiners to beat down
Speaker 1: gas prices saying you're making too much money, so we're
Speaker 1: gonna tax you more
Speaker 2: where those taxes
Speaker 1: going to end up.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he could end the consumers gas tank. Yeah, he
Speaker 2: could lead a country in europe with that philosophy. It's
Speaker 1: just it's
Speaker 2: unbelievable what you think, He's not going to run for president. He's,
Speaker 2: you know, and plus they're giving out in a tax
Speaker 2: rebate checks to every California over $1000 Jeff. So he's
Speaker 2: laying the groundwork.
Speaker 1: Okay.
Speaker 1: Uh, a couple of other things from last week before
Speaker 1: we move forward, biden warns of a nuclear armageddon. Uh,
Speaker 2: the leader of France came after, you know, our our
Speaker 2: president and said, you know, pull it in, you, you
Speaker 2: shouldn't be doing that. And uh, the White House hold
Speaker 2: it back into the degree that said there's been no
Speaker 2: change in the US security people thinking about Russia. Well
Speaker 2: then
Speaker 2: why did he say it? I know it was to
Speaker 2: a private funders, but he should know anything you say
Speaker 2: in this country gets out and it's, you know, a president.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I hate I I respect the presidency. So, you know,
Speaker 2: this is uneasy times for me the last few years,
Speaker 2: but uh, you're supposed to instill confidence in your in
Speaker 2: your nation, not high anxiety and there's more than a
Speaker 2: few people, uh, you're worried about this, you know, statement
Speaker 1: Jeff. Uh, it's uh, you know, and you're you're right
Speaker 1: because
Speaker 1: uh President trump was known for making his, you know
Speaker 1: the over the top comments as well. Uh, but he
Speaker 1: caught a lot of crap for it for doing it now.
Speaker 1: We've got another president that is making over the top
Speaker 1: comments
Speaker 2: continued. We got a quick question here that I can answer.
Speaker 2: What's the of labor unions ratifying the rail agreement? Any
Speaker 2: concerns
Speaker 2: that will impact harvest logistics first. Even if it were
Speaker 2: to go awry, they would continue talking. So I don't
Speaker 2: see anything that would impact harvest logistics from these talks.
Speaker 2: There's other things that will impact
Speaker 1: that they'll continue talking and they will continue running the
Speaker 1: rail service.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, absolutely.
Speaker 1: The
Speaker 1: the I wouldn't say a bigger concern but an equal
Speaker 1: concern is the level of the Mississippi river and and
Speaker 1: what's happening to the barge operators. I mean ingram barge
Speaker 1: company had to declare force majeure just because they can't
Speaker 1: get things done. Now it's my understanding that over the
Speaker 1: weekend some of the pinch points have been widened and
Speaker 1: reopened and the backlog is starting to flow again. But
Speaker 1: it's this is we we are
Speaker 1: we are going to prove the value of that river
Speaker 1: to the grain markets and to agriculture and to the
Speaker 1: economy this fall is what it looks like to me.
Speaker 2: Yes, and Kirby if you don't get pro farmer, you should.
Speaker 2: But if you don't email me and I'll send you
Speaker 2: what we put out on the pro farmer dot com
Speaker 2: site on the update of those labor union talks. Just
Speaker 2: my last name at gmail dot com and I'll send
Speaker 2: it to you. My
Speaker 1: last name. Yeah, that's easy.
Speaker 1: Some would call it weasel,
Speaker 2: meyer
Speaker 1: call it
Speaker 2: it's easy chip. W I E S E M E
Speaker 2: R every letters and E except
Speaker 1: except for the second
Speaker 2: one.
Speaker 1: That's that's right, that's right. One last one from last week,
Speaker 1: the jobs growth came in. Uh, it slowed on a
Speaker 1: month to month basis because you know, July was 500,000
Speaker 1: plus something.
Speaker 1: Uh the august was 300,000 plus. Now we're 2 50
Speaker 1: to 60. So the rate of gain is slowing, but
Speaker 1: it's still strong enough. The jobs market is still strong
Speaker 1: enough that the, the odds of a 75 basis point
Speaker 1: increase at the early november. Fed meeting is actually went
Speaker 1: up
Speaker 2: About 85%. Around 85%. Yes. And then maybe a 50
Speaker 2: basis points for the next one in December. But
Speaker 2: bottom line chip, the Fed watchers tell me they're gonna,
Speaker 2: you will have to see those job growth plunged to
Speaker 2: about 50,000 before the Fed gets comfortable there, there, go
Speaker 2: there after the labor market. Where after boosting it for
Speaker 2: well over a year. Uh they want to, they want
Speaker 2: to see the numbers go significantly down and stay there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they want to hurt, they want to hurt it
Speaker 2: first. They
Speaker 1: do. And
Speaker 2: you know, by the time you do that, that's the
Speaker 2: fear that that they would have, they would have gone
Speaker 2: too far asked. That's the conundrum and that's why a
Speaker 2: soft landing, it's hard to get at. The odds have
Speaker 2: gone up for a hard landing. It could get bro
Speaker 2: for the first quarter next year. It really could not
Speaker 2: only here, but around the world we have I. M. F.
Speaker 2: And World Bank uh, meetings this week and tomorrow. We're
Speaker 2: going to get an update from the International monetary fund
Speaker 2: on the economic projections, us china, the world etcetera. And
Speaker 2: that's gonna be ugly as well.
Speaker 1: Over the weekend, let's move on to that. The bridge
Speaker 1: in Crimea that connects to the Crimean peninsula.
Speaker 1: Has anybody claimed responsibility for the, you can't call it destruction,
Speaker 1: the damage to the bridge.
Speaker 2: Uh, no, but uh, it's all signs do point to Ukraine. Uh, there, there's,
Speaker 2: you know, I don't know what the word for it is,
Speaker 2: but they're Secret Service and Putin is already declared
Speaker 2: it was them. And and now he's being pressured big
Speaker 2: time for a big comeback retaliation. And you saw some
Speaker 2: of that uh, overnight where he bombed Kiev the capital
Speaker 2: for the first time in many months.
Speaker 1: Right? Um, it feels like we're into a period of
Speaker 1: escalation in the conflict again as we get closer and
Speaker 1: closer to cold weather.
Speaker 2: Yeah. And let's connect dots, Jeff here, that means, uh,
Speaker 2: the the odds have gone up that you will not
Speaker 2: see an extension or an expansion of the Ukraine export uh, agreement.
Speaker 2: And because of your Russia and Putin and that's why
Speaker 2: you have what the grains are up substantially.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah. In the overnight trade we was 30 to
Speaker 1: 35 cents higher, corn was 7 to 8.5 cents higher.
Speaker 1: Soybeans even came along for the ride traded about 25
Speaker 1: cents higher in the overnight.
Speaker 2: So we cover all this in our daily report because
Speaker 2: there are market connections with policy.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, absolutely. Um Okay. Obviously something that we have to
Speaker 1: continue to watch very closely there
Speaker 1: also over the weekend, the White House issued sweeping restrictions
Speaker 1: on selling semiconductors and chip making equipment to china.
Speaker 2: And it's got china's attention to. Uh and as they
Speaker 2: go into uh the 16th begins there about a week
Speaker 2: party congress. And it's big because they have it every
Speaker 2: five years. And that's gonna be critical chip to see
Speaker 2: China's reactions not only to the chip uh issue from
Speaker 2: the U. S. But also if g. Gives any clues
Speaker 2: on Taiwan during his speech, which usually lasts 2 to
Speaker 2: 3 hours, by the way,
Speaker 2: Uh on the 16th. And we're also gonna look at
Speaker 2: the lineup of the officials with him on the stage
Speaker 2: because there's, you know, big changes going on at the
Speaker 2: top level of, you know, China's government. But any comments
Speaker 2: he makes on Taiwan will be uh microscope as to
Speaker 2: for uh if and when and how if and when
Speaker 2: and how he's going to deal with Taiwan?
Speaker 1: Yeah. It we've we've covered 22 of these meetings now
Speaker 1: with g correct
Speaker 2: Yes.
Speaker 1: And each of them coming out of it has been high,
Speaker 1: there's been some high anxiety coming out of it. Just
Speaker 1: in in in uh putting perspective on exactly what the
Speaker 1: actions mean for the world and the global economy going forward.
Speaker 1: and the anxiety is pretty high already going into this one. Jim.
Speaker 1: It's
Speaker 2: absolutely and pro farmer has several china watchers and I
Speaker 2: can't wait for their assessment after his speech because again,
Speaker 2: it's going to be an important element.
Speaker 1: Okay, Before we get to some of the issues coming
Speaker 1: up this week, let's go ahead and get to Gary's
Speaker 1: question here, he says,
Speaker 1: um, is what the Netherlands are doing by buying out
Speaker 1: the top polluters, ultimately the end goal of E. S. G.
Speaker 1: That being environmental, social governance.
Speaker 2: Uh There's both uh that could be an element, but
Speaker 2: uh you have pushed back here big time with more
Speaker 2: republican leaning groups against the uh E. S. G. And
Speaker 2: now you have some states
Speaker 2: uh you know, uh signals to companies that that they
Speaker 2: will withdraw their funds of, you know, certain groups, uh
Speaker 2: if if if they continue
Speaker 1: pulling money away from a bank, which bank was it?
Speaker 2: I got it cut it in today's looking
Speaker 1: down
Speaker 2: at the very let's see lina south
Speaker 2: Carolina polls money from Black rock. Over.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: And this is money. This is not, you know, the
Speaker 2: state's treasure plans to withdraw $200 million so they're pulling
Speaker 2: their investments to punish the firm over its commitment to
Speaker 2: environmental investing policies.
Speaker 1: Yeah and and Black rock is
Speaker 1: maybe not the most uh forward facing on this but
Speaker 1: they they have endured. They have embraced the E. S. G.
Speaker 2: For
Speaker 1: for the future and the states are basically saying you're
Speaker 1: going the wrong direction with this.
Speaker 2: Yeah. And most of the ag meetings I go to,
Speaker 2: this comes up as a as a threat.
Speaker 1: It should
Speaker 2: yes it's always on the agenda.
Speaker 1: It absolutely should come up every time. I mean this
Speaker 1: is uh
Speaker 1: We talk we talk about why okay the number of
Speaker 1: of started but uncompleted oil wells. Is that like at
Speaker 1: the lowest level since 2014? Okay. Yeah but the reason
Speaker 1: the reason it is is because we're not starting any
Speaker 1: more wells.
Speaker 1: And part of the reason for that is there's still
Speaker 1: a lot of independent drillers out there that have got
Speaker 1: to go and get money and operating loans someplace and
Speaker 1: they can't get it because of the E. S. G.
Speaker 1: Governance
Speaker 2: you know and that's called a conundrum.
Speaker 1: Oh it's called we
Speaker 1: it's called solar better work win better work because if
Speaker 1: it doesn't at some point we're going to get cold
Speaker 2: and Venezuela better step up their production because the White
Speaker 2: House is talking to
Speaker 1: them.
Speaker 1: Oh my goodness. Okay. Another big one for this week.
Speaker 1: We've got prop 12 before the Supreme Court of the
Speaker 1: United States tomorrow. Jim give us uh
Speaker 2: well we have a background or a guess again on
Speaker 2: this on pro farmer dot com. But bottom line it's
Speaker 2: it's gonna be can California dictate the policies of all
Speaker 2: the other states
Speaker 2: and uh they're gonna huff and puff uh tomorrow uh
Speaker 2: at the Supreme Court we probably won't have the final
Speaker 2: ruling until sometime next june but this is big chip
Speaker 2: for the pork industry because if California was successful, this
Speaker 2: would be used
Speaker 2: a template to come after other issues within the ag sector.
Speaker 2: Uh The animal rights people uh are are are presenting
Speaker 2: their case on this one from that perspective, it's better
Speaker 2: for the animal but that's being challenged by people who
Speaker 2: actually raise hogs on on that.
Speaker 1: Okay. Exactly. And this is I mean this is the
Speaker 1: headline item of the week for us because of what
Speaker 1: it means,
Speaker 1: It's going to set the precedent on how this is
Speaker 1: going to go forward. Um We talked last week about
Speaker 1: the importance of lotus and and how important the case
Speaker 1: was last week and doesn't this just
Speaker 1: You know Phil time before we get to the next
Speaker 1: uh conflict or or court case regarding lotus aren't we
Speaker 1: in 10 years from now going to be talking about
Speaker 1: the final rule in defining the waters of the US.
Speaker 2: I think so I think because they're going to define
Speaker 2: better rather than keep it nebulous for the courts like
Speaker 2: the last time on the waters of the U. S.
Speaker 2: They're gonna try to narrow narrow the definition
Speaker 1: of
Speaker 1: Exactly
Speaker 2: that would be good.
Speaker 1: Yes. So in other words in 10 years, I don't
Speaker 1: think we're gonna be talking about what the rules of
Speaker 1: the waters of the US are because it's going to
Speaker 1: be settled by this definition. So you know that the
Speaker 1: the issue on how states can influence production, of you
Speaker 1: know with animal agriculture in other states
Speaker 1: I think is going to be settled by this decision,
Speaker 1: isn't it? Jim.
Speaker 2: Yes. And let me, yes for the listeners and viewers
Speaker 2: when you read stories about tomorrow's meeting like last week's
Speaker 2: on wall this uh some people
Speaker 2: can give too much weight on the types of questions
Speaker 2: the Supreme Court justices asked, that doesn't mean a signal
Speaker 2: inherently to how they're going to vote. Some some justices
Speaker 2: like to penetrate
Speaker 2: uh one's argument uh for for further understanding. So it's
Speaker 2: a little dangerous to predict, you know, it's it's like
Speaker 2: predicting the U. S. Corn and soybean crop based on
Speaker 2: the weekly crop developments. You know, it's it's it's a
Speaker 2: method but still you can't peg that crop, you know
Speaker 2: based on on those ratings similar to the Supreme Court.
Speaker 2: So don't miss read too much into the questions
Speaker 1: but let's certainly pay attention to the questions that are asked.
Speaker 2: Yes. Well on Walters as we said, I think last week,
Speaker 2: I think it all depends on john roberts because he's
Speaker 2: more of the swing. But even if he were to
Speaker 2: vote uh more for the more expanded Walters definition, he
Speaker 2: has to bring
Speaker 2: on at least one other conservative justice member and that,
Speaker 2: that is unlikely. So that's why most of the ag
Speaker 2: sector lawyers I've talked with on this, see a narrower definition.
Speaker 2: That's the bottom line. Watch john roberts, the head of
Speaker 2: the court.
Speaker 1: Okay. Um, just very quickly on this, the Department of
Speaker 1: labor is expected to unveil the final H two a
Speaker 1: worker rule updates that's gonna come on october 12th jim
Speaker 1: uh something that, that we're gonna have to watch fairly
Speaker 1: closely there as well,
Speaker 2: yep.
Speaker 1: Okay, uh
Speaker 1: Wednesday also on October 12 we get the crop production
Speaker 1: and world egg supply and demand estimates
Speaker 2: yes and big world numbers two on that one. And
Speaker 2: and as brian on pro farmer said, we could get
Speaker 2: some big balance sheet changes here,
Speaker 1: relatively recent
Speaker 2: reports we should. And so, you know, you can quibble
Speaker 2: with what what USDA says about crop numbers, but they're
Speaker 2: still the one that the trade bounces off of once
Speaker 2: they are released, but we're also going to have to
Speaker 2: see those south american numbers to on crops chip.
Speaker 1: Absolutely. On october 13th the house select committee investigating the
Speaker 1: january 6th 2021 capitol Hill riots
Speaker 1: Is going to hold its next public hearing. I think
Speaker 1: the most important thing that I saw in your update
Speaker 1: on that Jim. Is that a summary report has been
Speaker 1: rumored to be released ahead of the November eight elections?
Speaker 2: Yes. The final report after November eight elections. But you
Speaker 2: think they're gonna not release preliminary summary? They will.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 1: And the timing on that is going to be very
Speaker 2: interesting.
Speaker 1: Uh september producer price index comes on
Speaker 2: producer Wednesday thursday.
Speaker 1: Yes,
Speaker 2: big
Speaker 1: big
Speaker 2: reports because they're data driven now. And uh, they're they're
Speaker 2: they should have been focused a year ago on inflation now,
Speaker 2: they're absolutely focused on it and it just one month
Speaker 2: won't change them, but they they've got to see the
Speaker 2: core uh, rates coming down consistently.
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 1: Um, earlier I mentioned that there is another federal Open
Speaker 1: market committee meeting early next month. It's actually november november
Speaker 1: 1st and second. Just a day a week. Excuse me,
Speaker 1: a week before Election Day. So,
Speaker 1: uh, still looking for that 0.75% increase on that. Uh
Speaker 2: Why it's important ship? If if well, when not if
Speaker 2: when they go first, lower than 75 because that'll show
Speaker 2: again lower. So it's the beginning
Speaker 2: of the pivot. You know, we're
Speaker 1: not there yet.
Speaker 2: First quarter of next here. If then.
Speaker 1: Right. Right, okay. Uh, you mentioned this earlier. I'm just
Speaker 1: another reminder I. M. F. And World Bank annual meeting
Speaker 1: begins in Washington today. Uh We get the Fed minutes
Speaker 1: from the last meeting on Wednesday.
Speaker 1: Uh,
Speaker 2: always important because it shows how the attitude of the
Speaker 2: Fed members, right?
Speaker 1: Exactly. And it seems like there was one last one
Speaker 1: that I wanted to mention. Uh, oh yeah. And and
Speaker 1: we did talk about this earlier that the grain deal
Speaker 1: between between Russia and Turkey and Turkey and Ukraine expires
Speaker 1: in november. But it looks like the U. N. Officials
Speaker 1: are going to try to keep that deal going heading
Speaker 1: to Russia later this this month
Speaker 1: to work on a deal to extend that deal.
Speaker 2: Yes. And Putin has been even before this bombing of
Speaker 2: the bridge has been saying it should go to truly
Speaker 2: DD countries not to, you know, company, you know, not
Speaker 2: to countries that can pay outright for it. Like in europe,
Speaker 2: I guess he he meant and back
Speaker 2: on the I. M. F. And World Bank uh, the
Speaker 2: Financial Times this morning reported that the U. S. And
Speaker 2: Germany are publicly pushing the World Bank to do more
Speaker 2: to address climate change. So there's your policy murph ng
Speaker 2: into uh, you know, financial institutions. Jip.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Gotcha. Gotcha. I'll give you 30 seconds. Anything else
Speaker 1: that you feel like we missed?
Speaker 2: No. Other than working on my next power point. I'm
Speaker 2: trying to be upbeat, but it's awfully hard to, so
Speaker 2: I'll
Speaker 2: we have to go through tell you there's not much more.
Speaker 2: I can buy, I will say this after we go
Speaker 2: through this. It's gonna be really rough over the next
Speaker 2: quarter or two and you have to get the low
Speaker 2: to start going up and at least I see it
Speaker 2: sometime next year. But
Speaker 2: lot lot of concerns out there chip from more from
Speaker 2: a geopolitical perspective. We're
Speaker 1: in very good,
Speaker 2: very good. We're
Speaker 1: going to talk more about prop 12. Uh and the
Speaker 1: Supreme Court hearing that is arguments that are going to
Speaker 1: take place tomorrow on this
Speaker 1: mornings. Agritalk. We're also gonna have a report from machinery pete.
Speaker 1: We'll talk about the importance of getting out there and
Speaker 1: scouting for S. C. N. Of course this afternoon we've
Speaker 1: got john Payne from hedge Point Global. That's this afternoon
Speaker 1: at 206 on a great talk. Thank you so much
Speaker 1: for spending some time with us here this morning and
Speaker 1: have a great week. Keep watching for those signals.