Speaker 1: Good morning. It is monday March 14th 2022. And this
Speaker 1: is dc signal to noise.
Speaker 1: Alright, since we last talked, the war in Ukraine has intensified.
Speaker 1: Gas prices have gone up sharply in just the last week.
Speaker 1: They were going up even before that, but obviously they
Speaker 1: have gone up even more since the,
Speaker 1: since the invasion has intensified and the brutality has intensified,
Speaker 1: clocks sprung forward. Jim commodity classic has come and gone.
Speaker 1: Market's volatility, input costs, Russia's actions in Ukraine
Speaker 1: inflation. They were all topics of conversation in new Orleans
Speaker 1: last week. I'm agritalk host chip Flory. That is pro
Speaker 1: farmer policy analyst. Jim Wiesemeyer. Good morning jim. Good morning.
Speaker 1: Alright. So not only is the baseball season back on,
Speaker 1: But they plan to play 162 games in the preseason
Speaker 1: deals that normally happen at the winter meetings are happening Joe.
Speaker 2: Yes. And even the Nationals kinda slugger, I forget his name.
Speaker 2: Uh but uh and he'll be probably are designated hitter
Speaker 2: and there were some other big moves from the
Speaker 2: Yankees and the twins. And even in football.
Speaker 2: Uh Yes, he got it for the race, but he's
Speaker 2: coming back to uh paul.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Tampa Bay got a new quarterback,
Speaker 1: it's the old guy. But yeah, but they got a
Speaker 1: new quarterback
Speaker 1: and I gotta say this. Alright, the basketball tournament is
Speaker 1: back in full form. Okay, so here's the deal. Go
Speaker 1: to agweb dot com. And then the trending items at
Speaker 1: the top of the page, you will find bracket buster challenge,
Speaker 1: click on that. Get in on the fun. Jim. Wiesemeyer
Speaker 1: has so generously donated 1000 bucks. That'll go straight to
Speaker 1: the winner
Speaker 1: of the bracket buster 500 to second place to 52
Speaker 1: 3rd place and get involved in the fun. It's gonna
Speaker 1: be a lot of fun. Alright. Have you got to
Speaker 1: pick jim
Speaker 1: for the, for the tournament?
Speaker 2: Well, not really, but I'm rooting for Virginia tech, but
Speaker 2: they're not going to win it.
Speaker 1: Okay. Alright. My head,
Speaker 1: my head says Arizona.
Speaker 1: Um, I really like that. I really like the way
Speaker 1: that Iowa team is playing right now. They're very, very good.
Speaker 1: Uh, but do not underestimate
Speaker 1: what could happen from Durham
Speaker 1: with Chef Ski on his way out and they could,
Speaker 1: they could get on an emotional tidal
Speaker 2: wave and
Speaker 1: ride it right into the end. I know they lost
Speaker 1: that final game of the tournament and the, the conference tournament,
Speaker 1: but it's a new deal when they,
Speaker 1: when, when it's uh, this time of the year and,
Speaker 1: and you're a Duke blue devil. So
Speaker 2: right.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, absolutely there in it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's, that's a really good team that got beat
Speaker 1: in the first round of the conference tournament. But
Speaker 1: you know, it uh
Speaker 1: Uh it, it can happen there too. It can happen
Speaker 1: there too. There's 10 or 12 teams that could pretty
Speaker 1: easily win the thing. Okay.
Speaker 1: Uh, let's take a look at a couple of things
Speaker 1: that were announced on friday and and USDA Secretary Vilsack was,
Speaker 1: was fairly active on friday
Speaker 1: when he was that commodity classic.
Speaker 1: Uh, number one thing that I saw on the list
Speaker 1: jim was that they announced they are seeking information on
Speaker 1: the competition, the investigation into input prices.
Speaker 2: Yes, yes for both, not only of course fertilizer, but
Speaker 2: for seed, we finally got some more information on seed
Speaker 2: and various sectors in the food industry. And later on
Speaker 2: friday
Speaker 2: they put out a statement chip, but they added some
Speaker 2: links to it. So if you go on pro farmer
Speaker 2: dot com, we have all of those links on the
Speaker 2: questions they're asking and things like that. So we finally
Speaker 2: have some more information but it was loaded along with
Speaker 2: what the $250 million in aid
Speaker 2: relative to expanding the fertilizer sector sector in the,
Speaker 2: in the retail distribution end.
Speaker 1: Right, right. Yeah.
Speaker 1: The that industry over the last, well since 2008 has
Speaker 1: gone through so many changes, you know, they, the entire
Speaker 1: industry thought they had it all figured out and exactly,
Speaker 1: the the delivery model that they should be using on
Speaker 1: the fertilizer and then they changed it overnight. They got
Speaker 1: beat up by holding inventory
Speaker 1: And that the high priced inventory that they couldn't even
Speaker 1: sell at a low price in 2009, And as a
Speaker 1: result of that, uh, we've, we've found ourselves in a
Speaker 1: situation now where
Speaker 1: there there are no guarantees that the supply that,
Speaker 1: That farmers need in the spring of 2022 is actually
Speaker 1: going to be available. The scoop, farm journals. The scoop
Speaker 1: has the story out that by Rhonda Brooks, she talked
Speaker 1: with some folks down at commodity classic last week and
Speaker 1: the estimate is that there's going to be about half
Speaker 1: of the fertilizer available this spring. Jim.
Speaker 2: Will that be reflected
Speaker 2: in the march planning intentions or will it be a traditional?
Speaker 2: This is what farmers hoped to plant?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I I think it's going to be very much
Speaker 1: this is what they intend to plant. And right now
Speaker 1: if I was a farmer and I didn't have, I
Speaker 1: had my fertilizer paid for, but I didn't have physical,
Speaker 1: You know, I didn't have a hold of the inventory
Speaker 1: quite yet. My intent, my, my expectations would be that
Speaker 1: I would plant 100% of my, my crops.
Speaker 1: Um, so I would think
Speaker 1: that the,
Speaker 1: that the survey that, that USDA is doing right now.
Speaker 1: I talked with lance Honig last week down in commodity classic.
Speaker 1: And the survey is going to look for that in
Speaker 1: in the mail and make sure that you fill that
Speaker 1: out and get it turned back in.
Speaker 2: Pro farmer has an acreage survey. Maybe if we get
Speaker 2: enough respondents, uh, you know, this week, they'll uh, they'll
Speaker 2: release some information at the end of the week.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that would be great. That would be great.
Speaker 1: And you know, the fertilizer prices just keep going up
Speaker 1: the green markets. Had the some data out here this
Speaker 1: last week that showed that
Speaker 1: Yeah, what was it another 16% increase? And and Brazil
Speaker 1: is going up even faster than we are?
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's uh it's it's gonna be it's gonna have
Speaker 2: an acreage impact, there's no doubt about it and we've
Speaker 2: yet to price that in. I don't think we have.
Speaker 1: Right. Yeah. The question that that was
Speaker 1: and and this decision is so individual but on a
Speaker 1: farm by farm basis.
Speaker 1: Uh But the idea is, do you fertilizer, do you
Speaker 1: fertilize only what you can
Speaker 1: with what you've got or do you just run it
Speaker 1: thinner
Speaker 1: over the same number of acres?
Speaker 2: Well, my cousins are telling me in in prior years
Speaker 2: when this happened, although not like this year,
Speaker 2: they lightened up on their best soil and still put
Speaker 2: uh more amounts in on their lower yielding uh soil chip.
Speaker 2: And I guess that makes sense,
Speaker 1: yep, yep.
Speaker 1: Um Tanner has jumped into the comments section already here, Gemma.
Speaker 1: And if you would like to participate, you've got the
Speaker 1: comments tab over on the right side. It'll open up
Speaker 1: a uh
Speaker 1: a dialog box for you at the bottom of the page,
Speaker 1: Tanner says on Fridays agritalk, it was mentioned that some
Speaker 1: countries are limiting exports of fertilizer and wheat has the U.
Speaker 1: S implemented limiting exports in the recent past
Speaker 1: of strategic commodities. Could limiting certain export products
Speaker 1: become a topic of discussion to curb inflationary pressures domestically.
Speaker 2: Well let's go briefly through history under President Nixon, you
Speaker 2: had what they called sales suspension,
Speaker 2: in which he asked at the time, Israel and Poland
Speaker 2: uh to suspend their purchases of U. S. Soybeans until
Speaker 2: new crop became available. Uh And that was kind of
Speaker 2: the first time. And that sent the signal to south
Speaker 2: America to expand acres. And then you had the carter
Speaker 2: grain embargo.
Speaker 2: Uh And that was really major against the then, you
Speaker 2: know soviet union. Uh And then we had in interspersed
Speaker 2: in that when it was the soviet union ship,
Speaker 2: we had the great american grain robbery where the soviet
Speaker 2: union came in and bought so much wheat and beans
Speaker 2: etcetera that we had a purchase agreement with them to
Speaker 2: to watch their monitor. And actually that's when the export
Speaker 2: sales reporting system started. So can they put those in? Yes.
Speaker 2: Should they? Absolutely not. I hope they I hope we
Speaker 2: don't go back to that. But they definitely can. And
Speaker 2: the pressure is going to be there, especially coming from lawmakers.
Speaker 2: You saw it early on under the liquefied natural gas
Speaker 2: where you had
Speaker 2: a number of senators wanted to stop the exports of
Speaker 2: lng
Speaker 1: right jim I think maybe the key to tanner's question
Speaker 1: here is could limiting certain export products become a topic
Speaker 1: of discussion to curb inflationary pressures domestically. I don't think
Speaker 1: there's any question they're going to talk about it.
Speaker 2: Talk about it,
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Alright.
Speaker 1: Gary's in next is biden administration still looking at sanctions
Speaker 1: on India? If so, could they push into
Speaker 1: trade deals with Russia and china?
Speaker 2: Well, in the uh, they're they're closer to Russia than
Speaker 2: they are with us. And I think if people are truthful,
Speaker 2: they'll say that I don't know whether we're looking at
Speaker 2: sanctions on India because of the sensitivity of India and Pakistan.
Speaker 2: I think that they will tread lightly. Especially this administration.
Speaker 1: Okay.
Speaker 1: Um, are you up to speed on the crypto currency
Speaker 1: investigation at the biden administration?
Speaker 2: Well, they're studying it usually when, when and, and I
Speaker 2: don't care whether you're Republican or democrat, when you study
Speaker 2: a problem, you're delaying your delaying it and that's why
Speaker 2: actually when this was announced. Uh, what about a week
Speaker 2: ago
Speaker 2: Kryptos actually went higher because they were they were they
Speaker 2: were worried that there would be that would be more
Speaker 2: imminent
Speaker 2: regulations on on on the Cryptocurrency. So we have to
Speaker 2: see what they're going to come up with. But for
Speaker 2: now it wasn't as owner assessed the crypto industry thought,
Speaker 1: right, okay, so Gerry's second part to that question. Was
Speaker 1: there just studying it.
Speaker 1: But he says the Hamiltons project was done by the
Speaker 1: Federal reserve last november
Speaker 1: and it said that we are closer to a cashless
Speaker 1: society than we think
Speaker 2: we're moving closer. I know most people, I don't hardly
Speaker 2: ever use cash anymore, do you? I just don't, you know,
Speaker 2: so I guess it depends where you're from and what
Speaker 2: you're used to, you
Speaker 1: know?
Speaker 1: No, I'll admit I use the card quite a bit
Speaker 1: more now than, you know, my debit card because it's
Speaker 1: got that chip that you just hold it up to
Speaker 1: the machine and it reads it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's pretty
Speaker 2: dangerous.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah. Good grief, It's pretty easy. Thanks tanner and
Speaker 1: thanks Gary for getting involved in the conversation, appreciate that. Uh, okay,
Speaker 1: jim Where to next? What, what is the house in
Speaker 1: the Senate? Well,
Speaker 1: the House and the Senate are both in session this
Speaker 2: week.
Speaker 2: We will get the White House initially announced late last
Speaker 2: week that they're going to rescind the permanent normal trade
Speaker 2: Relations PNTR with Russia. Now, Congress wanted to act earlier
Speaker 2: last week, but the White House told them to hold off,
Speaker 2: I'm not quite sure why.
Speaker 2: Maybe he was working out language with the european union,
Speaker 2: but since he's announced that now the Congress will follow
Speaker 2: suit and chip, there's bipartisan support for that. So, you
Speaker 2: will see, uh, you know, you know, you know, that
Speaker 2: be approved by Congress this week. I know in the House,
Speaker 2: they will Now, what's the impact of that? Uh, we're,
Speaker 2: I think Russia is about the 23rd country we trade with,
Speaker 2: as far as numbers are concerned,
Speaker 2: but it will allow them tariffs will go up on
Speaker 2: a number of products, vodka, etcetera. So that just gives
Speaker 2: them the wherewithal to really crush from a US Russia
Speaker 2: trade perspective. And and it's gonna come up, that's one area.
Speaker 2: Uh, you know, I am picking up problems in among
Speaker 2: the House democrats on getting enough votes for a covid
Speaker 2: aid package. You'll recall that last week. Pelosi is the
Speaker 2: speaker from California had to pull out the covid aid
Speaker 2: package because she had some inner party
Speaker 2: rivalries going on the amount,
Speaker 2: the offsets, etcetera. So, you know, I'm not quite so
Speaker 2: sure they're going to get that done this week. But
Speaker 2: you know, you know, you know, those are the two
Speaker 2: things I'm watching for. There's a few nominees up that
Speaker 2: will probably um probably be approved. But the big thing
Speaker 2: on the economic front ship is the
Speaker 2: FOMC meeting. This will be the first week in many
Speaker 2: years that will have an interest rate hike. It's well
Speaker 2: expected to be 25 basis points. I think it should
Speaker 2: be higher myself. But uh, but then we're gonna have
Speaker 2: to listen to Fed Chairman Jerome Jay Powell, what he
Speaker 2: says in the, in the statement and what he says
Speaker 2: in the presser
Speaker 2: That he'll have afterwards, 2:30 eastern time
Speaker 2: uh to see a future interest rate increases and their
Speaker 2: game plan for for tapering the timeline, the degree they're
Speaker 2: gonna taper etcetera and their work is cut out for
Speaker 2: them because of the the the the the weight of
Speaker 2: these uh energy price run ups and
Speaker 2: other factors that are least signaling stagflation in the months ahead.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely.
Speaker 1: Okay.
Speaker 1: Um
Speaker 1: we we are going to see a round of US
Speaker 1: china talks this week level talks
Speaker 2: today. Yes, that's a very important development because I always
Speaker 2: like when country officials, especially at the level that they're
Speaker 2: going to be speaking at chip talk to each other.
Speaker 2: Uh so they're they're the U. S. You heard it
Speaker 2: in the new shows on sunday. Uh they're concerned that
Speaker 2: China is going to be giving Russia military aid and
Speaker 2: other assistance. So I know that they've been talking about
Speaker 2: that privately already,
Speaker 2: but I think that they want to make clear that
Speaker 2: that would not be a good development because that would
Speaker 2: be another
Speaker 2: negative in the already thorny US china trade relationship
Speaker 1: Jim jim. Has there been any evidence out there yet
Speaker 1: that china has tried to
Speaker 1: circumvent the sanctions that the world is putting on Russia?
Speaker 2: That's a good question. They're saying no,
Speaker 2: they're saying no.
Speaker 2: And they also China has also denied that they knew
Speaker 2: what Russia was going to do Putin was going to do.
Speaker 2: But most people think that they knew generally what, but
Speaker 2: not to the degree that Putin unfolded it. So he
Speaker 2: lied to europe and he lied to china
Speaker 1: Jim. You mentioned that India is closer to Russia than
Speaker 1: it is to the U. S.
Speaker 1: There is a reason that India was buying us soybean
Speaker 1: oil as aggressively as it was
Speaker 1: weeks before the invasion happened there, it's it's it's absolutely
Speaker 1: clear now that that India knew exactly what was gonna
Speaker 1: happen and probably knew when it was going to happen.
Speaker 1: So uh it's it's uh
Speaker 1: we're so we're having to resort
Speaker 1: uh the friends and foes again around the world. And
Speaker 1: and that's always a
Speaker 1: high anxiety period.
Speaker 2: And on the weekend we have the Russians uh pelting
Speaker 2: 11 miles from Poland. Uh so that gets you into
Speaker 2: a very nervous category relative to the NATO Article five.
Speaker 2: So
Speaker 1: okay so speaking of nervous territory,
Speaker 1: what how is how is the soviet is Russia
Speaker 1: representing the U. S.
Speaker 1: In talks with Iran
Speaker 1: on the nuclear deal?
Speaker 2: Well actually the White House's backing down a little bit
Speaker 2: because Russia was serving as a negotiator
Speaker 2: between the US and Iran on the nuclear plan chip.
Speaker 2: But they were putting their own language in relative to
Speaker 2: sanctions lifting
Speaker 2: for Russia. So you can see the sensitivity of that one.
Speaker 2: And the U. S. Put out again on the news
Speaker 2: shows that
Speaker 2: there there there there they would not subscribe to that involvement.
Speaker 1: Okay.
Speaker 1: Yeah it that just seems
Speaker 1: really really difficult
Speaker 1: to believe or accept
Speaker 1: that that is is happening out there
Speaker 2: while the White House is also backing off on Venezuela
Speaker 2: now because they've caught a lot of heat from their own.
Speaker 2: You know lawmakers.
Speaker 1: Well yeah good
Speaker 1: good. Uh they absolutely should
Speaker 1: jim may be the biggest topic of discussion when it
Speaker 1: comes to
Speaker 1: the ability to get regular business done or not when
Speaker 1: we were down at commodity classic last week, was if,
Speaker 1: if Ukraine is going to get a crop planted,
Speaker 2: we had a number of developments on friday from the
Speaker 2: U N F A O. Uh and also over the
Speaker 2: weekend and uh I think he and even the president
Speaker 2: of Ukraine said to we, he implored the, the, you know,
Speaker 2: you know, farmers to go out and plant. But boy,
Speaker 2: some of the
Speaker 2: uh the interviews that Bloomberg and others have done,
Speaker 2: uh it's really gonna be dicey with reports of significant
Speaker 2: reduction in the planning especially of corn chip that came
Speaker 2: through loud and clear to me over the weekend.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah. The corn situation I think is is without
Speaker 1: a doubt the dicey ist
Speaker 1: and the analysts that I talk with now jim, they,
Speaker 1: you know, corn, soybeans, wheat,
Speaker 1: most feel like we've got a
Speaker 1: price friendly
Speaker 1: set of fundamentals under the market. Is it bullish from,
Speaker 1: from the price levels that we're at right now? No,
Speaker 1: does price friendly mean that the markets can't go down?
Speaker 1: Absolutely not. But
Speaker 1: as they do retreat, it will be more orderly.
Speaker 1: It will still, we will still have some excellent selling
Speaker 1: opportunities along the way and the price floor that we
Speaker 1: find heading into the 2022 growing season will probably be,
Speaker 1: quote unquote higher.
Speaker 1: So it uh
Speaker 1: it's a, it's a friendly situation I think, and I
Speaker 1: think that's what everybody's anticipating,
Speaker 1: which means we'll probably all be wrong
Speaker 2: how much, how much of all this is already factored
Speaker 2: into markets. You know, that ship. But I think what
Speaker 2: you also said is a significant dip is going to
Speaker 2: be bought
Speaker 2: because of the further uncertainties ahead.
Speaker 1: We
Speaker 2: have not, we have yet to go through our, what
Speaker 2: we always called the two season and are planning to
Speaker 2: little rain, too much rain, too little heat, too much heat.
Speaker 2: And so it's it's not gonna go straight down even
Speaker 2: if it does, you know, does go down. Which
Speaker 1: and and I was surprised to learn over the weekend
Speaker 1: that and correct me if I'm wrong on this jim.
Speaker 1: But it sounds like Russia is starting to move some
Speaker 1: product through the Black Sea again, they
Speaker 2: are, they're resuming black seaweed exports. Uh, you know, navigation
Speaker 2: and what the as of C
Speaker 2: remains restricted. So,
Speaker 2: Uh, so the Ikan said, Russia's black sea terminals loaded
Speaker 2: 400,000 metric tons of wheat last week chip and that
Speaker 2: the vessels were going in and out of the ports there.
Speaker 2: So yeah, that is a key development.
Speaker 1: Yeah. No question about it. No question.
Speaker 1: Uh, the average price of gasoline and jim,
Speaker 1: I can't believe this, but on friday on the free
Speaker 1: for all.
Speaker 1: Davis Michaelsen made the point
Speaker 1: that very quickly
Speaker 1: the the administration would be blaming
Speaker 1: the war in Ukraine for all of the inflation for
Speaker 1: all of the problems that we're dealing with. And my
Speaker 1: comment was, oh, it's too soon for that to happen.
Speaker 1: You know, it, it can't
Speaker 1: over the weekend,
Speaker 1: jen Psaki, the spokesman is all over the place saying
Speaker 1: higher gas prices are Putin's fault.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Well not only do they think we are, but
Speaker 2: biden to, he's just saying blame Putin. So, uh, it's just,
Speaker 2: I know most people, including some democrats, will say, come on,
Speaker 2: It's had a significant impact. There's no doubt about it.
Speaker 2: What at least the last 75 cent run up
Speaker 2: is due to the invasion and war. But we had
Speaker 2: a pretty good water at about a dollar increase from
Speaker 2: the year before
Speaker 2: before he even went in. So yes, I just for
Speaker 2: an administration that said they were going to be transparent.
Speaker 2: I'm sorry. They're not on this one.
Speaker 1: Okay. If you want to give the last 75 cents
Speaker 1: to the war too,
Speaker 1: Putin's invasion of Ukraine, I guess I would be willing
Speaker 1: to do that. But
Speaker 1: we're more than a buck and a half a gallon
Speaker 1: higher than what we were a year ago.
Speaker 2: That's what I mean.
Speaker 2: And and Larry Summers used to be the Treasury Secretary
Speaker 2: Under Obama. He's even taken them to task for that.
Speaker 2: So I think when you look at it. But again,
Speaker 2: they're sensitive on this issue and they know that inflation
Speaker 2: is not going to go
Speaker 2: Away any time soon. In fact that we're going to
Speaker 2: get another report this week. That's going to show it
Speaker 2: near 10%. So
Speaker 2: oh, they're setting up a decoy.
Speaker 1: Yeah,
Speaker 1: yeah. The livestock,
Speaker 1: livestock producers are very concerned, cattlemen in particular are very
Speaker 1: concerned about what the impact of these, these higher gas
Speaker 1: prices are going to be on their market. Jim
Speaker 2: Well, it shows you that when you,
Speaker 2: when you
Speaker 2: Uh, why didn't you buy earlier? Because I guess they
Speaker 2: thought it was gonna go down more, you know what
Speaker 2: I mean? At least they've had the opportunity over the
Speaker 2: last 18 months to get some forward bookings on. I
Speaker 2: always say from a marketing perspective to either buy or sell.
Speaker 2: If you haven't had that opportunity, then I feel your pain,
Speaker 2: but if you had, you made a marketing decision.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah. Okay. I completely agree with that. But on
Speaker 1: on the beef side of things,
Speaker 1: the market is concerned that
Speaker 1: consumers are going to be putting more dollars into the
Speaker 1: gas pump than they are at the meat case.
Speaker 1: And that balance has been
Speaker 1: favoring beef purchases for
Speaker 1: man
Speaker 1: a year and a half already or maybe even two
Speaker 1: years since the pandemic started. It's lasted longer and been stronger.
Speaker 1: The beef demand has than many thought it would be
Speaker 1: gas prices could be the tipping point that that
Speaker 1: show us some some *** in that armor and
Speaker 2: I agree and not just the Gas Wall Street Journal
Speaker 2: has a big article today that I totally agree with electricity.
Speaker 2: Americans are going to be surprised and have to gulp
Speaker 2: because of the inter relationships of electricity
Speaker 2: and some of their bills this year. Once that takes
Speaker 2: old chip. Yeah. Give me, I'm gonna look up my
Speaker 2: chicken recipes.
Speaker 1: Okay,
Speaker 2: chicken side
Speaker 1: and I can help you
Speaker 2: and pork and
Speaker 1: yeah, there you go. I can, I can help you
Speaker 1: out there. We'll make sure you're okay boy. Listen to
Speaker 1: this comment from carl,
Speaker 1: we built
Speaker 1: our economic growth on cheap food, cheap energy and cheap labor.
Speaker 1: They've all come to collect.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Now we're gonna see that's why I tend to agree
Speaker 2: with that. Now we've discussed before this first started chip.
Speaker 2: Remember when I told you I believe that we're, we've
Speaker 2: ratcheted up
Speaker 2: the trading ranges for the commodities. Now we've been through
Speaker 2: these before and have not looked good saying those things
Speaker 2: like
Speaker 2: Boy, this one, it feels it's longer like we did
Speaker 2: in the 70s, those lasted by the way those lasted.
Speaker 2: So I I think the writer is correct from my
Speaker 2: perspective that we're gonna, Americans are going to see
Speaker 2: more like europe has to pay, they're going to have
Speaker 2: to pay, we've done it through
Speaker 2: a lot through income transfers through foreign policy that won't
Speaker 2: cut it anymore. That won't cut it. So I think
Speaker 2: they're going to have to pay at the grocery store
Speaker 2: as well.
Speaker 1: Jim I I just realizing we need to go back
Speaker 1: to Tanner's question about
Speaker 1: limiting some exports because Argentina
Speaker 1: is doing that, aren't they?
Speaker 2: Oh yeah they're they're they have suspended the uh export
Speaker 2: registrations I guess for both meal and uh oil now friday.
Speaker 2: I know Vilsack talked about it and others at the F. A. O.
Speaker 2: We're imploring countries not to do what what Argentina just did.
Speaker 2: That doesn't mean they'll listen and they're not.
Speaker 2: So the U. S. Will probably take the high road
Speaker 2: on that. But when these food prices get higher and
Speaker 2: higher and other aspects chip you see it in the fertilizer,
Speaker 2: their pressure mounting. And I've seen over the decades I've
Speaker 2: been in this town the white house caves to pressure
Speaker 1: bird flu jim. Uh It's not as bad as it
Speaker 1: was
Speaker 1: geez it's been several years ago now that we had
Speaker 1: the mass liquidation or
Speaker 1: depopulation of birds in Iowa but it's still out there.
Speaker 2: Yeah and I told someone this morning it's only news
Speaker 2: now when U. S. D. A. Doesn't confirm more cases.
Speaker 2: But we had another confirm HPI ai in a non
Speaker 2: commercial flock in Kansas and
Speaker 2: Illinois and a commercial flock in Iowa. So that brings
Speaker 2: the total
Speaker 2: confirmed cases in the U. S. To 30 with 18
Speaker 2: being in commercial operations and the rest in the backyard
Speaker 2: non commercial flocks. This is just it's going to continue
Speaker 2: chip because we've we've seen the history of this one.
Speaker 1: Right friday. You said that what you are going to
Speaker 1: be watching in the week of the week ahead is
Speaker 1: Russia Ukraine. And the developments there has anything changed.
Speaker 2: Well we got that big pOW today between the U. S.
Speaker 2: And china.
Speaker 2: Uh you get Putin getting bloodier and nastier in the
Speaker 2: in the battle. So it's increasing chip, it's not decreasing.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I just this thing nobody can see an
Speaker 2: end zone yet and that's disconcerting
Speaker 2: as well. And before we forget it on the energy side,
Speaker 2: if there's anyone from michigan that's listening,
Speaker 2: tell me what is, what do I not see
Speaker 2: in your governor of not having common sense. Gretchen Whitmer
Speaker 2: wants to shut down the Enbridge line line five pipeline
Speaker 2: you know, and that carries a big chunk of fossil
Speaker 2: fuels between Canada
Speaker 2: in the US And if she prevails she's in court
Speaker 2: both at the state and federal court level
Speaker 2: to shut it down. That's going to affect consumers in
Speaker 2: Ohio michigan indiana and pennsylvania. And one study says they're
Speaker 2: gonna pay almost another $5 billion or more each year
Speaker 2: for gasoline and diesel fuel. Now the diesel fuel will
Speaker 2: get into the farm sector there. So I I just
Speaker 2: logic was just escaping me.
Speaker 2: How does she get away with those things and and
Speaker 2: be elected in michigan please Michigan people tell me, where
Speaker 2: am I going wrong on on on on studying her.
Speaker 1: Yeah, interesting, interesting jim.
Speaker 1: I think we're going to wrap things up here real quick. Okay.
Speaker 1: I just want to remind everybody out there that if
Speaker 1: you've got the nest survey, get that filled out that's
Speaker 1: on acreage and on grain stocks.
Speaker 1: And don't forget Jim Wes Myers generosity. You could win
Speaker 1: 1000 bucks from Jim Wiesemeyer. Just go to the triple
Speaker 1: W dot Agweb dot com. Look at the trending items
Speaker 1: at the top of the page, bracket buster challenge, click
Speaker 1: on that and get in on the fun when jim's money.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna get the funds from Putin are one of
Speaker 2: the oligarchs.
Speaker 1: Very good.
Speaker 2: I'm going to try to get it from them.
Speaker 1: That's right. That's right. All right.
Speaker 1: This morning, this morning on Agritalk, we've got machinery pete.
Speaker 1: And we will get an update on the situation in
Speaker 1: Ukraine from Senator chuck Grassley. Looking forward to that. Have
Speaker 1: a great week and keep watching for those signals.