Speaker 1: normally at 8 15 central time on monday mornings Jim Wiesemeyer,
Speaker 1: pro farmer policy analyst. And I sit down for a
Speaker 1: conversation that we call signal to noise. But
Speaker 1: when the federal government is closed on Mondays we move
Speaker 1: it
Speaker 1: two right now. 10 30 Central
Speaker 1: here on a great talk. We are going to have
Speaker 1: kind of
Speaker 1: and abbreviated I guess I would call it D. C.
Speaker 1: Signal to noise. Jim waste Meyer. Welcome back. How are you?
Speaker 2: I'm here without a face.
Speaker 1: Without a face. That's right, that's right. And you know,
Speaker 1: some people would appreciate that I'm talking about for me.
Speaker 1: Of course, yeah.
Speaker 1: You know, dude, so over the weekend, over the weekend
Speaker 1: when the when the braves and the cubs started their series,
Speaker 1: The braves were on a 14 game winning streak.
Speaker 1: The cubs,
Speaker 1: We're on a 10 game losing streak
Speaker 1: and the cubs won a one to nothing pitching duel
Speaker 1: and it was an awesome small ball kind of game
Speaker 1: and I loved it. And I thought boy, here we go.
Speaker 1: Well not so much.
Speaker 1: How's your nat's doing?
Speaker 2: Uh We've we've won one less game than the cubs.
Speaker 2: So you know, we just lose three or four in
Speaker 2: a row and then win one. That's been their cycle.
Speaker 1: Uh it's tough to watch, tough to watch. It's so
Speaker 1: hard to watch. I'm watching the Stanley cup finals.
Speaker 1: Ha
Speaker 2: ha ha
Speaker 2: I've just been working in the garden. I do want
Speaker 2: to say yesterday I did work Jeff, I went down
Speaker 2: to D. C. And the north America renderers association had
Speaker 2: the beginning of their three day trip into D. C.
Speaker 2: To visit with lawmakers and things like that. I want
Speaker 2: to take a quick, you know, quick mention here chip
Speaker 2: because they asked me they're going to be seeing staff
Speaker 2: and lawmakers and they asked me what what should we
Speaker 2: usually focus on? And I said that's a good question.
Speaker 2: Keep your topics brief one or two and also asked
Speaker 2: the senator or representative what are the biggest issues he's
Speaker 2: hearing from his state of his or her state or district?
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Uh That's that's really good advice. That's one thing that
Speaker 1: I try to do with every
Speaker 1: every time I have a senator or a representative on
Speaker 1: Agritalk
Speaker 1: in in communications leading up to the interview I say,
Speaker 1: hey what's on your priority list? I'm I and we,
Speaker 1: as listeners of the conversation are curious what what is
Speaker 1: at the top of the priority list across the country
Speaker 1: And and that leads to some really good conversations. Jim
Speaker 1: No
Speaker 2: question.
Speaker 1: Okay.
Speaker 1: Um so we've got a holiday shortened week
Speaker 1: but boy, they've got an aggressive schedule.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna look at the Senate ag panel here first
Speaker 1: because there is going to be a vote on
Speaker 1: two cattle related measures. Jim tell us about it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely. The well that's the meat uh
Speaker 2: uh pricing act. Yeah pricing act. And then the other
Speaker 2: one is the meat and poultry special investigator act, which
Speaker 2: the opponents say, you know they already have the authority
Speaker 2: to do everything. You know, packers and stockyards, that's that's
Speaker 2: in the language of this bill. But I still think
Speaker 2: both the cattle price discovery and transparency act and the
Speaker 2: meat and poultry special investigator act, you know, Chip will
Speaker 2: pass the Senate ag committee. I think it's on for
Speaker 2: Wednesday but uh I still think it might be tied
Speaker 2: to get them through on a Senate on the Senate
Speaker 2: floor vote, it's gonna be close.
Speaker 1: Okay. So last week we had Tanner Bemer on on
Speaker 1: the show,
Speaker 1: Senior VP there at the National Cattlemen's beef Association
Speaker 1: talking about why N. C. B. A. Was against the
Speaker 1: lower food and fuel cost act.
Speaker 1: Um that, well, it was spearheaded I guess I would
Speaker 1: say by Representative Abigail spanberger out of Virginia who is
Speaker 1: going to be on the show to talk about
Speaker 1: the legislation tomorrow morning,
Speaker 1: but
Speaker 1: N. C. B. A. Was against it because of the
Speaker 1: duplicity
Speaker 1: of this special investigator.
Speaker 1: They weren't necessarily against the other issues in the
Speaker 1: in the bill. And there's certainly for the butcher block
Speaker 1: and the expansion of of capacity and and the support
Speaker 1: of that.
Speaker 1: But this
Speaker 1: this special investigator thing jim has really created
Speaker 1: uh it it it has created a lot of conflict
Speaker 1: on both sides of that issue
Speaker 2: and I and I don't blame the opponents on this
Speaker 2: one I've seen. We've already seen too many finger pointers
Speaker 2: out out, you know, lately Chip, but that a whole
Speaker 2: host of industries Refiners, meatpackers seek companies, you name it.
Speaker 2: And again bozeman on the Senate ag committee has said
Speaker 2: they already have the authority just use it if if
Speaker 2: there's problems use it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I I hear that, I agree with that. But
Speaker 1: there are a lot of
Speaker 1: cattlemen out there
Speaker 1: that want an official whistleblower.
Speaker 1: See it, say it, scream about it and point it
Speaker 1: out to everybody
Speaker 1: that bad stuff is happening
Speaker 2: again. I say that's the role of the P. And S. A.
Speaker 2: But we'll we'll see I will say that abigail from
Speaker 2: Virginia is spot on in what she's hearing from Virginia
Speaker 2: from Virginia cattle producers because when I spoke to them
Speaker 2: they really are interested in increased transparency and more processing chips.
Speaker 2: So she's echoing
Speaker 2: I think what his constituents are telling her.
Speaker 1: So Senator Grassley is going to help push this through
Speaker 1: the Senate AG Committee. I would imagine. What are the
Speaker 1: odds that he can round up enough votes in the
Speaker 1: full Senate to get 60 votes for this?
Speaker 2: It could be very close. But you know, you're gonna
Speaker 2: have some uh you know the southerners Oklahoma and texas
Speaker 2: from both parties. Chip
Speaker 2: are just gonna look towards this because how many studies
Speaker 2: have we seen that while it does not affect the
Speaker 2: upper midwest Nebraska and Iowa to be exact it does
Speaker 2: have a significant negative impacts for the key cattle states
Speaker 2: of Oklahoma and texas chips so I got it down
Speaker 2: to one or two Maybe they can if if if
Speaker 2: if they don't get right at 60 they could be
Speaker 2: shy of 1 to 2 because it's gonna take
Speaker 2: That 60 vote threshold to to stop debate on the filibuster.
Speaker 1: All right, very good.
Speaker 1: Um so we've got
Speaker 1: I
Speaker 1: I am hearing more and more from the biden administration
Speaker 1: talk and issues that
Speaker 1: I thought
Speaker 1: six weeks ago had had gone away, but
Speaker 1: we're talking about new reconciliation measures
Speaker 1: to rein in the deficit, revive parts of the build
Speaker 1: back better plan that were out there. Jim is that happening?
Speaker 2: We've been on this one chip and there is a
Speaker 2: full court effort now talks are continuing with Mansion, the
Speaker 2: centrist senator
Speaker 2: from west Virginia, you know, democrat and uh they're gonna
Speaker 2: load in. I think the secret of this reconciliation and
Speaker 2: it will be only democrat only uh is including language
Speaker 2: on some expiring Obamacare programs that expire this fall chip
Speaker 2: early winter and then early next year. And that will
Speaker 2: bring in
Speaker 2: perhaps a number of house democrats now, why are I
Speaker 2: I switched from the Senate to the house because the
Speaker 2: the very liberal House members aoc etcetera.
Speaker 2: Uh they might not vote for this reconciliation bill because
Speaker 2: they want a lot more in it. But this Obamacare provision,
Speaker 2: it would be awfully hard for any democrat to vote
Speaker 2: against that jet.
Speaker 1: Okay,
Speaker 1: um
Speaker 1: let's let's talk about
Speaker 1: the state of the economy
Speaker 1: because there are more and more Elon musk being one
Speaker 1: of the latest
Speaker 1: to put out a warning about recession. It's just such
Speaker 1: a strange event. Jim. We've got this weak economy with
Speaker 1: inflation and tightening monetary policy. It it's got us looking
Speaker 1: at old
Speaker 1: different directions at the same time.
Speaker 2: Yeah. And here we go again. Uh, Treasury Secretary Janet
Speaker 2: Yellen on the Sundays news program said, although, yes, americans
Speaker 2: are hurting a recession isn't inevitable. And uh, President biden
Speaker 2: said the same thing shortly after. Meanwhile, you have the
Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal survey of economists, which is very,
Speaker 2: A very good survey that a lot of traders and
Speaker 2: analysts look at and in June they found a 44%
Speaker 2: expect a recession in the next year. Now that's a
Speaker 2: big increase. Chip from the 28
Speaker 2: Who forecast a recession in their April survey and 18
Speaker 2: in January, the trend is up.
Speaker 1: Okay,
Speaker 1: so the trend is moving in that direction. I feel
Speaker 1: that if the administration could somehow some way
Speaker 1: get fuel prices
Speaker 1: under control that a recession
Speaker 1: could still be a very, I'm, I think we're in one.
Speaker 1: Um, but it can be a minor recession if we
Speaker 1: can get these fuel
Speaker 1: prices under control.
Speaker 1: Is there any change on the administration policy toward fossil fuels?
Speaker 2: Uh,
Speaker 2: well, they're constantly changing. But uh, President biden said by
Speaker 2: the end of this week. He should decide on whether
Speaker 2: or not that he's going to push a federal, you know, suspending.
Speaker 2: I should say the federal gas tax, that's that 18.3
Speaker 2: cent per gallon federal tax, but that's gonna require Congress
Speaker 2: to act. So here we go again.
Speaker 2: And a number of states have already done it chip
Speaker 2: at the state level. But my now home state of Virginia,
Speaker 2: the governor Duncan wanted it, but his his his Congress
Speaker 2: would not allow it. So, but other, some other states
Speaker 2: have done it. But that's a short term because as
Speaker 2: a former Treasury Secretary, Larry Summers said over the weekend,
Speaker 2: eventually they're going to have to go back on
Speaker 2: and you know, that helps fund the
Speaker 2: highway system. So I I just think it's very short
Speaker 2: sided Jeff.
Speaker 1: Oh, it
Speaker 1: it certainly is. And you know, on one hand, we've
Speaker 1: got all these E. S. G. The environmental, social governance
Speaker 1: considerations out there that are limiting investment in
Speaker 1: the energy production. And I'm talking about fossil fuel, energy production,
Speaker 1: Um, that that we're fighting and 18 a gas tax
Speaker 1: holiday seems like so insignificant I guess when we're up
Speaker 1: against other issues. All right, Jim. We were talking about
Speaker 1: energies there at the end of the last segment
Speaker 1: and there's been a deal struck between a U. S.
Speaker 1: Natural gas exporter
Speaker 1: to supply Germany with Nazi gas
Speaker 1: isn't this only going to amplify talk
Speaker 1: of some kind of export restrictions.
Speaker 2: It'll put the pressure on for sure. Chip. And even
Speaker 2: though over the weekend from friday on, we had a
Speaker 2: down tech uh in, in energy prices there, it's, it's
Speaker 2: not gonna last long probably, but here's something to watch
Speaker 2: out for
Speaker 2: two Americans and three Iranian naval vessels at a recent
Speaker 2: confrontation
Speaker 2: in the strait of Hormuz. And that's that checkpoint checkpoint
Speaker 2: for global oil shipping. If something were to occur there, chip,
Speaker 2: all all bets are off on whether or not they'll
Speaker 2: do or not do any, any halter suspensions of gas exports, uh,
Speaker 2: natty gas out of here, something to watch, Jeff.
Speaker 2: And meanwhile, Grand Home, our Energy secretary is meeting with
Speaker 2: Refiners this week to find out why aren't they refining more? Well,
Speaker 2: they're gonna hear what they've been saying for weeks. They're
Speaker 2: already at near capacity and primarily because of the increased regulations.
Speaker 2: I did a check
Speaker 2: and the first year and a half of the biden
Speaker 2: administration versus the Obama administration, because democrats, it's just the
Speaker 2: fact that usually increased regulations, biden is 2 to 2.5 times, uh,
Speaker 2: increased regulations versus Obama. That says it all
Speaker 1: Well,
Speaker 1: you know, it, it does say a lot, but here
Speaker 1: we are with, with refining capacity, as you said,
Speaker 1: the Refiners say that we are basically at capacity, correct?
Speaker 2: Very close to Yes.
Speaker 1: So even if we increased oil production,
Speaker 1: how does that bring down gas prices?
Speaker 2: That's called a dilemma.
Speaker 1: Okay.
Speaker 1: Um, so don't we need to encourage investment
Speaker 1: and
Speaker 1: in adding refining capacity, which is going to take a
Speaker 1: loosening up of rules and regulations to cut some red
Speaker 1: tape to get it done in any kind of
Speaker 1: timely matter.
Speaker 1: And and it just goes against everything that the biden
Speaker 1: administration has talked about even back into the campaign days
Speaker 1: when they said that they were going to end fossil fuels.
Speaker 2: Yes. And it's some of the language. Once we get
Speaker 2: the final of this, let's connect dots here of the
Speaker 2: reconciliation bill. Senator Mansion is insisting on some, some language
Speaker 2: regarding crude oil. So it, that's going to be very
Speaker 2: interesting to see if they open up that industry,
Speaker 2: even though, as you said, it goes against everything President
Speaker 2: biden and specifically others in the administration john Kerry to
Speaker 2: be exact. But something's gonna have to give. That's why
Speaker 2: I'm saying we're gonna have higher gasoline prices longer than
Speaker 2: people think.
Speaker 1: Yeah. If we can increase oil production though and start
Speaker 1: adding to surplus and adding to inventory, it does bring that,
Speaker 1: it does bring crude oil prices down and it's cheaper
Speaker 1: to make gasoline from, from $50 crude than it is
Speaker 1: from 100 and $10 crude, which can bring gasoline prices down.
Speaker 1: So
Speaker 1: let's pump baby pump.
Speaker 2: That is true. And I did notice the a wire
Speaker 2: service story, I don't know whether it was Reuters or Bloomberg,
Speaker 2: that's saying we're building up finally some inventory of fertilizer.
Speaker 2: I don't know whether you saw that, that's a good thing.
Speaker 2: That's a
Speaker 1: good thing. We've got
Speaker 1: Some dates set now for Supreme Court to hear two
Speaker 1: very important
Speaker 1: issues for agriculture. Give us the update.
Speaker 2: Well on proposition 12 that's the biggie in the uh
Speaker 2: in the pork industry where the news of friday or
Speaker 2: over the weekend the U. S. Government announced that it
Speaker 2: backs the national pork producers council and the farm bureau
Speaker 2: in their proposition 12 Supreme Court case
Speaker 2: Now. And the Supreme Court's Gonna Hear that begin hearing
Speaker 2: the case I should say October the 11th.
Speaker 2: Now to recall that this thing is a heated argument
Speaker 2: at many levels. The Senate ag chairwoman Debbie stabenow urged
Speaker 2: USDA Secretary of Vilsack to support proposition 12. So there's
Speaker 2: your your your your differences within uh
Speaker 2: among the democrats.
Speaker 2: Then on October three chip, the Supreme Court's Gonna Hear
Speaker 2: the Wetlands Case.
Speaker 2: Uh So we're gonna get some key issues for the
Speaker 2: business of agriculture in october from the Supreme Court.
Speaker 1: Okay, that's october 3rd on the case. Now, what are
Speaker 1: the odds that E. P. A. Is gonna try to
Speaker 1: put a final rule out on the waters of the U. S.
Speaker 1: Before that october 3rd decision or he
Speaker 2: could. Well
Speaker 2: it could well be.
Speaker 2: But remember these are hearings and they still have to
Speaker 2: rule at the Supreme Court Now I think we and
Speaker 2: others have asked Reagan about that E. P. A Administrator
Speaker 2: Michael Regan and he says they will be complimentary other
Speaker 2: people are not so sure. But that's how Regan answers
Speaker 2: that question that they don't want to get too far
Speaker 2: behind
Speaker 2: in. Promulgating the new rule by just waiting for the
Speaker 2: Supreme Court. So there's your argument.
Speaker 1: Well then they then they lose. If they don't have
Speaker 1: a final rule out before that Supreme Court decision, then
Speaker 1: they don't have uh any ground to stand on
Speaker 1: or
Speaker 2: you know? Well, they'll have to they'll have to modify.
Speaker 2: Don't ever bet on E. P. A. To come out
Speaker 2: with the final rule in october. It's just not gonna happen.
Speaker 2: I think it'll be near the end of the end
Speaker 2: of the year. Chip.
Speaker 1: Okay. All right. Very good.
Speaker 1: Anything else? You got 20 seconds? What else are you watching?
Speaker 2: The renderers told me that in a number of cases
Speaker 2: they have had to shut down some exports of their
Speaker 2: products because I didn't have enough inspectors to certify their plants.
Speaker 2: That's not good. We have to ask Vilsack about that
Speaker 2: the next time.
Speaker 1: Labor issues all over the place. Airlines
Speaker 1: USDA inspectors. Me. It's it's all over the place. Good stuff. Jim.
Speaker 1: Thanks buddy. We'll talk to you again later. That's Jim Wiesemeyer.
Speaker 1: Pro farmer policy analyst.