WEBVTT - Ambition & UBI - Why People Are Working Less 0:00:21.723 --> 0:00:26.613 Ideas. Sam Altman is simultaneously building AGI and doing big 0:00:26.613 --> 0:00:31.203 studies on UBI. Super obvious what he's doing, in fact. Oh, 0:00:31.233 --> 0:00:33.633 this is kind of hot off the press here, because 0:00:33.633 --> 0:00:36.903 I just did this analysis with fabric, and I saw 0:00:36.903 --> 0:00:40.593 a tweet thread about this as well, the UBI study 0:00:40.593 --> 0:00:43.473 that came out. This is not in the newsletter. This 0:00:43.473 --> 0:00:49.683 just happened this morning. This UBI study that OpenAI put out, 0:00:49.683 --> 0:00:54.483 which was funded by essentially Altman. It turns out at 0:00:54.513 --> 0:00:57.183 least one of the interpretations and some of the manual 0:00:57.183 --> 0:01:00.693 work that I just did doing AI analysis on the results, 0:01:00.693 --> 0:01:04.023 it did not increase a lot of the things that 0:01:04.023 --> 0:01:10.293 they were hoping. They're spinning it as a very positive outcome, 0:01:10.293 --> 0:01:14.763 and I'm sure they said there is some minor positive outcomes, 0:01:14.763 --> 0:01:17.763 but in general, it did not encourage people to be 0:01:17.763 --> 0:01:20.583 more ambitious. It did not encourage people to go and 0:01:20.583 --> 0:01:25.913 get more work. It didn't do that. Um, so it 0:01:25.913 --> 0:01:29.093 looks a bit bad. Now. I think we need to 0:01:29.093 --> 0:01:33.143 do more analysis to say for sure that UBI is 0:01:33.143 --> 0:01:35.753 not going to massively help, or it's not going to 0:01:35.753 --> 0:01:40.433 help people be more ambitious or more creative or more productive, 0:01:40.433 --> 0:01:42.923 which which I think is the hope. The hope is 0:01:42.923 --> 0:01:48.953 that or the idea here is that ambitious people are 0:01:48.953 --> 0:01:51.413 lucky people who have the time and energy to go 0:01:51.413 --> 0:01:54.743 and be ambitious, and that when you look at people 0:01:54.743 --> 0:01:59.363 who are struggling and they're not ambitious, it's likely because 0:01:59.363 --> 0:02:02.543 they have too many jobs. You know, they got too 0:02:02.543 --> 0:02:05.063 much drama in their lives. There's too much going on. 0:02:05.063 --> 0:02:07.403 And if that were to not be the case, if 0:02:07.403 --> 0:02:10.733 they were, we were able to reduce their stress. They 0:02:10.733 --> 0:02:14.033 would become just like the go getters and just like 0:02:14.033 --> 0:02:22.223 the ambitious and smart people. And this study, being so large, 0:02:23.153 --> 0:02:26.873 has the ability to undo that narrative a bit and 0:02:26.873 --> 0:02:30.043 basically say that there's a chance here We need to 0:02:30.043 --> 0:02:33.283 do full analysis of this, but there's a chance here 0:02:33.283 --> 0:02:37.123 that what it uncovers is that no ambitious people have 0:02:37.123 --> 0:02:40.873 something else. They have this ambition and drive that lets 0:02:40.873 --> 0:02:47.293 them thrive almost despite whatever is going on. So if 0:02:47.293 --> 0:02:49.003 they have lots of burdens on them, they're going to 0:02:49.003 --> 0:02:52.633 find a way through. Unless they're overwhelming, of course. But 0:02:52.633 --> 0:02:55.633 given the same amount of burden, people with this attribute 0:02:55.633 --> 0:02:59.293 of like drive and self-discipline and ambition, they're just going 0:02:59.293 --> 0:03:00.793 to crush it. They're going to find a way to 0:03:00.823 --> 0:03:05.353 crush it. And the whole narrative for this UBI thing 0:03:05.353 --> 0:03:09.463 was that, no, everyone has that. And I think I'm 0:03:09.463 --> 0:03:12.253 old enough at this point to realize, no, not everyone 0:03:12.253 --> 0:03:16.843 has special beans or special magic. It really is a 0:03:16.843 --> 0:03:20.503 small portion of, you know, society who is in the 0:03:20.503 --> 0:03:23.593 top 10% of a given thing. I mean, just by 0:03:23.593 --> 0:03:27.343 the numbers. Like only 10% can be in the 10%, 0:03:27.373 --> 0:03:32.263 right So I think first we need to confirm that 0:03:32.263 --> 0:03:34.713 this is what it's saying. But even if it is 0:03:34.713 --> 0:03:37.683 saying the worst possible thing, which is no, this doesn't 0:03:37.683 --> 0:03:41.553 actually make people more ambitious. It doesn't really matter. We 0:03:41.553 --> 0:03:44.433 still have to keep looking for the thing that is 0:03:44.433 --> 0:03:46.893 the ambition. We still have to find the source of 0:03:46.893 --> 0:03:50.403 this thing that is so valuable to us, which is 0:03:50.553 --> 0:03:56.523 people who are driven and ambitious. Now, if it's genetic, well, 0:03:56.523 --> 0:04:00.543 then I don't care, right? But we're not we're not 0:04:00.543 --> 0:04:04.503 going to be changing genetics, right. Any time soon anyway. 0:04:04.503 --> 0:04:08.373 So it's like, I don't care if we find that 0:04:08.373 --> 0:04:11.643 there's more ambition in this group or less ambition in 0:04:11.673 --> 0:04:15.063 that group, because those numbers are likely to be so 0:04:15.093 --> 0:04:19.443 tiny compared to what we can control. You know, even 0:04:19.443 --> 0:04:21.513 if they exist and they might not even exist. It 0:04:21.513 --> 0:04:25.263 might be all environment. But I mean, this is a 0:04:25.263 --> 0:04:27.993 three year study. This doesn't control, like what went into 0:04:27.993 --> 0:04:32.493 their their upbringing and their childhood and everything Um, because 0:04:32.493 --> 0:04:36.423 if you look at cultures where they have this really, 0:04:36.473 --> 0:04:40.913 really strong drive and ambition and everything. It's part of 0:04:40.943 --> 0:04:44.423 their actual culture. This is like they pop out of 0:04:44.423 --> 0:04:47.903 the womb and it's like, pick your college, right? You 0:04:47.933 --> 0:04:51.353 were told from a very early age that you must 0:04:51.353 --> 0:04:54.773 be producing. It's your responsibility to give back to community. 0:04:54.803 --> 0:04:58.493 All your family members are looking up to you. You 0:04:58.493 --> 0:05:05.243 know you owe us. You owe society. Quality outputs. And 0:05:05.243 --> 0:05:10.553 you must work hard to create those that cultural influence 0:05:10.553 --> 0:05:13.163 and power. Plus all the peers that come with it. Plus, 0:05:13.163 --> 0:05:15.593 then you go to nice colleges and they all believe 0:05:15.623 --> 0:05:19.613 the same thing. That entire mechanism is what we need 0:05:19.613 --> 0:05:23.423 to give to the entire world. Okay. That that is 0:05:23.423 --> 0:05:28.583 the thing that I believe is creating ambitious people. So 0:05:28.583 --> 0:05:31.223 you do a three year study on UBI, you find 0:05:31.223 --> 0:05:37.343 out that doesn't make people into those people Fine, fine. 0:05:38.603 --> 0:05:43.603 Something is. and I believe it's that entire culture as 0:05:43.603 --> 0:05:47.653 a package. And that's the thing that we need to 0:05:47.683 --> 0:05:51.913 give to everyone. That's our responsibility. And if the world 0:05:51.943 --> 0:05:56.923 were more like that, the world would would be better. 0:05:56.923 --> 0:06:00.223 First of all, that automatically fixes crime. If you're trying 0:06:00.223 --> 0:06:04.603 to build things and doing things and you're busy, that 0:06:04.603 --> 0:06:10.393 automatically fixes literacy crime, like so many different things that 0:06:10.393 --> 0:06:16.183 are a problem. So I just I don't see this 0:06:16.183 --> 0:06:18.793 as too negative. I see it as a little bit negative, 0:06:18.823 --> 0:06:22.903 but positive in the sense that it's going to uncover 0:06:22.903 --> 0:06:29.983 the real issues, which is how to propagate successful mental 0:06:29.983 --> 0:06:37.363 models and frames, um, in a wider scope across wider 0:06:37.393 --> 0:06:40.633 groups of people, across the entire planet. And I think 0:06:40.633 --> 0:06:43.453 that's the problem we need to focus on and move 0:06:43.483 --> 0:06:44.413 towards solving.