1 00:00:21,723 --> 00:00:26,613 S1: Ideas. Sam Altman is simultaneously building AGI and doing big 2 00:00:26,613 --> 00:00:31,203 S1: studies on UBI. Super obvious what he's doing, in fact. Oh, 3 00:00:31,233 --> 00:00:33,633 S1: this is kind of hot off the press here, because 4 00:00:33,633 --> 00:00:36,903 S1: I just did this analysis with fabric, and I saw 5 00:00:36,903 --> 00:00:40,593 S1: a tweet thread about this as well, the UBI study 6 00:00:40,593 --> 00:00:43,473 S1: that came out. This is not in the newsletter. This 7 00:00:43,473 --> 00:00:49,683 S1: just happened this morning. This UBI study that OpenAI put out, 8 00:00:49,683 --> 00:00:54,483 S1: which was funded by essentially Altman. It turns out at 9 00:00:54,513 --> 00:00:57,183 S1: least one of the interpretations and some of the manual 10 00:00:57,183 --> 00:01:00,693 S1: work that I just did doing AI analysis on the results, 11 00:01:00,693 --> 00:01:04,023 S1: it did not increase a lot of the things that 12 00:01:04,023 --> 00:01:10,293 S1: they were hoping. They're spinning it as a very positive outcome, 13 00:01:10,293 --> 00:01:14,763 S1: and I'm sure they said there is some minor positive outcomes, 14 00:01:14,763 --> 00:01:17,763 S1: but in general, it did not encourage people to be 15 00:01:17,763 --> 00:01:20,583 S1: more ambitious. It did not encourage people to go and 16 00:01:20,583 --> 00:01:25,913 S1: get more work. It didn't do that. Um, so it 17 00:01:25,913 --> 00:01:29,093 S1: looks a bit bad. Now. I think we need to 18 00:01:29,093 --> 00:01:33,143 S1: do more analysis to say for sure that UBI is 19 00:01:33,143 --> 00:01:35,753 S1: not going to massively help, or it's not going to 20 00:01:35,753 --> 00:01:40,433 S1: help people be more ambitious or more creative or more productive, 21 00:01:40,433 --> 00:01:42,923 S1: which which I think is the hope. The hope is 22 00:01:42,923 --> 00:01:48,953 S1: that or the idea here is that ambitious people are 23 00:01:48,953 --> 00:01:51,413 S1: lucky people who have the time and energy to go 24 00:01:51,413 --> 00:01:54,743 S1: and be ambitious, and that when you look at people 25 00:01:54,743 --> 00:01:59,363 S1: who are struggling and they're not ambitious, it's likely because 26 00:01:59,363 --> 00:02:02,543 S1: they have too many jobs. You know, they got too 27 00:02:02,543 --> 00:02:05,063 S1: much drama in their lives. There's too much going on. 28 00:02:05,063 --> 00:02:07,403 S1: And if that were to not be the case, if 29 00:02:07,403 --> 00:02:10,733 S1: they were, we were able to reduce their stress. They 30 00:02:10,733 --> 00:02:14,033 S1: would become just like the go getters and just like 31 00:02:14,033 --> 00:02:22,223 S1: the ambitious and smart people. And this study, being so large, 32 00:02:23,153 --> 00:02:26,873 S1: has the ability to undo that narrative a bit and 33 00:02:26,873 --> 00:02:30,043 S1: basically say that there's a chance here We need to 34 00:02:30,043 --> 00:02:33,283 S1: do full analysis of this, but there's a chance here 35 00:02:33,283 --> 00:02:37,123 S1: that what it uncovers is that no ambitious people have 36 00:02:37,123 --> 00:02:40,873 S1: something else. They have this ambition and drive that lets 37 00:02:40,873 --> 00:02:47,293 S1: them thrive almost despite whatever is going on. So if 38 00:02:47,293 --> 00:02:49,003 S1: they have lots of burdens on them, they're going to 39 00:02:49,003 --> 00:02:52,633 S1: find a way through. Unless they're overwhelming, of course. But 40 00:02:52,633 --> 00:02:55,633 S1: given the same amount of burden, people with this attribute 41 00:02:55,633 --> 00:02:59,293 S1: of like drive and self-discipline and ambition, they're just going 42 00:02:59,293 --> 00:03:00,793 S1: to crush it. They're going to find a way to 43 00:03:00,823 --> 00:03:05,353 S1: crush it. And the whole narrative for this UBI thing 44 00:03:05,353 --> 00:03:09,463 S1: was that, no, everyone has that. And I think I'm 45 00:03:09,463 --> 00:03:12,253 S1: old enough at this point to realize, no, not everyone 46 00:03:12,253 --> 00:03:16,843 S1: has special beans or special magic. It really is a 47 00:03:16,843 --> 00:03:20,503 S1: small portion of, you know, society who is in the 48 00:03:20,503 --> 00:03:23,593 S1: top 10% of a given thing. I mean, just by 49 00:03:23,593 --> 00:03:27,343 S1: the numbers. Like only 10% can be in the 10%, 50 00:03:27,373 --> 00:03:32,263 S1: right So I think first we need to confirm that 51 00:03:32,263 --> 00:03:34,713 S1: this is what it's saying. But even if it is 52 00:03:34,713 --> 00:03:37,683 S1: saying the worst possible thing, which is no, this doesn't 53 00:03:37,683 --> 00:03:41,553 S1: actually make people more ambitious. It doesn't really matter. We 54 00:03:41,553 --> 00:03:44,433 S1: still have to keep looking for the thing that is 55 00:03:44,433 --> 00:03:46,893 S1: the ambition. We still have to find the source of 56 00:03:46,893 --> 00:03:50,403 S1: this thing that is so valuable to us, which is 57 00:03:50,553 --> 00:03:56,523 S1: people who are driven and ambitious. Now, if it's genetic, well, 58 00:03:56,523 --> 00:04:00,543 S1: then I don't care, right? But we're not we're not 59 00:04:00,543 --> 00:04:04,503 S1: going to be changing genetics, right. Any time soon anyway. 60 00:04:04,503 --> 00:04:08,373 S1: So it's like, I don't care if we find that 61 00:04:08,373 --> 00:04:11,643 S1: there's more ambition in this group or less ambition in 62 00:04:11,673 --> 00:04:15,063 S1: that group, because those numbers are likely to be so 63 00:04:15,093 --> 00:04:19,443 S1: tiny compared to what we can control. You know, even 64 00:04:19,443 --> 00:04:21,513 S1: if they exist and they might not even exist. It 65 00:04:21,513 --> 00:04:25,263 S1: might be all environment. But I mean, this is a 66 00:04:25,263 --> 00:04:27,993 S1: three year study. This doesn't control, like what went into 67 00:04:27,993 --> 00:04:32,493 S1: their their upbringing and their childhood and everything Um, because 68 00:04:32,493 --> 00:04:36,423 S1: if you look at cultures where they have this really, 69 00:04:36,473 --> 00:04:40,913 S1: really strong drive and ambition and everything. It's part of 70 00:04:40,943 --> 00:04:44,423 S1: their actual culture. This is like they pop out of 71 00:04:44,423 --> 00:04:47,903 S1: the womb and it's like, pick your college, right? You 72 00:04:47,933 --> 00:04:51,353 S1: were told from a very early age that you must 73 00:04:51,353 --> 00:04:54,773 S1: be producing. It's your responsibility to give back to community. 74 00:04:54,803 --> 00:04:58,493 S1: All your family members are looking up to you. You 75 00:04:58,493 --> 00:05:05,243 S1: know you owe us. You owe society. Quality outputs. And 76 00:05:05,243 --> 00:05:10,553 S1: you must work hard to create those that cultural influence 77 00:05:10,553 --> 00:05:13,163 S1: and power. Plus all the peers that come with it. Plus, 78 00:05:13,163 --> 00:05:15,593 S1: then you go to nice colleges and they all believe 79 00:05:15,623 --> 00:05:19,613 S1: the same thing. That entire mechanism is what we need 80 00:05:19,613 --> 00:05:23,423 S1: to give to the entire world. Okay. That that is 81 00:05:23,423 --> 00:05:28,583 S1: the thing that I believe is creating ambitious people. So 82 00:05:28,583 --> 00:05:31,223 S1: you do a three year study on UBI, you find 83 00:05:31,223 --> 00:05:37,343 S1: out that doesn't make people into those people Fine, fine. 84 00:05:38,603 --> 00:05:43,603 S1: Something is. and I believe it's that entire culture as 85 00:05:43,603 --> 00:05:47,653 S1: a package. And that's the thing that we need to 86 00:05:47,683 --> 00:05:51,913 S1: give to everyone. That's our responsibility. And if the world 87 00:05:51,943 --> 00:05:56,923 S1: were more like that, the world would would be better. 88 00:05:56,923 --> 00:06:00,223 S1: First of all, that automatically fixes crime. If you're trying 89 00:06:00,223 --> 00:06:04,603 S1: to build things and doing things and you're busy, that 90 00:06:04,603 --> 00:06:10,393 S1: automatically fixes literacy crime, like so many different things that 91 00:06:10,393 --> 00:06:16,183 S1: are a problem. So I just I don't see this 92 00:06:16,183 --> 00:06:18,793 S1: as too negative. I see it as a little bit negative, 93 00:06:18,823 --> 00:06:22,903 S1: but positive in the sense that it's going to uncover 94 00:06:22,903 --> 00:06:29,983 S1: the real issues, which is how to propagate successful mental 95 00:06:29,983 --> 00:06:37,363 S1: models and frames, um, in a wider scope across wider 96 00:06:37,393 --> 00:06:40,633 S1: groups of people, across the entire planet. And I think 97 00:06:40,633 --> 00:06:43,453 S1: that's the problem we need to focus on and move 98 00:06:43,483 --> 00:06:44,413 S1: towards solving.