WEBVTT - UL NO. 463 | Launching 2025, US Soldier Data Leak, AI Agents Emerge, China's Global Spy Network, Robotaxis Now Safer Than Humans 0:00:17.261 --> 0:00:19.822 All right. Welcome to unsupervised Learning. This is Daniel Miessler. 0:00:19.982 --> 0:00:24.142 And this is the first podcast for the new year 2025. 0:00:24.302 --> 0:00:27.542 And I wanted to just do a quick overview of 0:00:27.622 --> 0:00:31.182 what exactly it is that we do here. So I 0:00:31.222 --> 0:00:36.182 slightly upgraded or modified the tagline for the show as 0:00:36.221 --> 0:00:41.382 being a newsletter and podcast around trends and ideas in cybersecurity, 0:00:41.422 --> 0:00:44.821 national security, AI, technology and society, and how best to 0:00:44.861 --> 0:00:48.662 upgrade ourselves to be ready for what's coming. And I 0:00:48.662 --> 0:00:52.142 think that captures this well because obviously I'm talking about security. 0:00:52.141 --> 0:00:54.862 Obviously I'm talking about AI, but really what I'm talking 0:00:54.862 --> 0:00:58.702 about is trends in those things and ways to sort 0:00:58.702 --> 0:01:01.902 of improve ourselves. Right? This is about self-improvement, but it's 0:01:01.902 --> 0:01:06.301 about self-improvement within the context of what is going on 0:01:06.301 --> 0:01:10.502 in the world. And obviously it's future stuff. Right? So 0:01:10.502 --> 0:01:13.301 you can't predict this perfectly. I'm not claiming I can 0:01:13.301 --> 0:01:17.712 predict anything like this perfectly. Nobody knows what's going on, 0:01:17.712 --> 0:01:20.791 and you should be afraid of anybody, or you should 0:01:20.792 --> 0:01:24.392 avoid anybody who thinks they have a perfect bead on anything. 0:01:24.712 --> 0:01:28.672 Nobody knows. Like too many variables. So basically what we 0:01:28.672 --> 0:01:30.911 try to do here is figure out trends. Figure out 0:01:30.912 --> 0:01:34.912 what's interesting and then figure out how to upgrade ourselves. 0:01:34.912 --> 0:01:38.312 How to improve ourselves. To be in the best possible 0:01:38.312 --> 0:01:43.792 position to basically thrive as a human going forward. So 0:01:43.792 --> 0:01:45.831 one of the things I want to talk about is, like, 0:01:45.952 --> 0:01:49.632 I always leave the newsletter with security stuff and my 0:01:49.712 --> 0:01:54.352 focus on security. Cyber security, really all types of security, 0:01:54.352 --> 0:01:59.072 but especially cyber, is to essentially figure out what the 0:01:59.072 --> 0:02:02.512 new and interesting things are, not necessarily a dump of 0:02:02.512 --> 0:02:06.912 every single breach that happened or every single vulnerability that happened. 0:02:06.952 --> 0:02:09.072 I used to do a lot more coverage of that, 0:02:09.072 --> 0:02:13.311 but I just everybody's being hacked, right? Everybody's being hacked, 0:02:13.311 --> 0:02:17.282 and everybody has vulns in pretty much everything what I 0:02:17.322 --> 0:02:19.522 care about are like. First of all, what are the 0:02:19.522 --> 0:02:23.162 criticals like? If there's if there's something really crazy happening 0:02:23.162 --> 0:02:26.642 right now, like you, you really need to check your gear, 0:02:27.441 --> 0:02:31.121 get it offline, put a firewall rule in place, put 0:02:31.121 --> 0:02:34.481 a WAF in place, change a config, something like that, 0:02:34.482 --> 0:02:38.242 like a log forge type situation, those types of situations. 0:02:38.281 --> 0:02:44.202 I would say I'm still going to largely still cover. Right. 0:02:44.202 --> 0:02:47.561 Because because I think those are topical. They're trend based. 0:02:47.881 --> 0:02:52.322 It's important to know and I would like to still 0:02:52.321 --> 0:02:54.442 be that person who lets you know about that thing. 0:02:54.922 --> 0:02:58.362 But the other 700 things that happened or the other 0:02:58.362 --> 0:03:01.522 50 things that happened, or the other 25 things that happened, 0:03:01.642 --> 0:03:04.481 you're going to find out about it another way. You're 0:03:04.482 --> 0:03:06.642 going to get an email at work, like there are 0:03:06.642 --> 0:03:08.521 other ways to find it out. And I just feel 0:03:08.522 --> 0:03:14.042 like it's kind of noise to just constantly report about 0:03:14.042 --> 0:03:18.332 things being broken and people being hacked and breaches happening 0:03:18.332 --> 0:03:21.252 and leaks happening. But what I want to do is 0:03:21.251 --> 0:03:24.492 surface like the top ones from those and what I 0:03:24.492 --> 0:03:28.092 especially want to surface. And my favorite thing and really 0:03:28.091 --> 0:03:30.931 the focus of the security section and really all the 0:03:30.931 --> 0:03:35.332 sections here is what is a changing trend. How are 0:03:35.372 --> 0:03:40.732 attackers or defenders doing things differently? What is a new technique? Right. 0:03:40.812 --> 0:03:43.412 That's really the focus here is like what is a 0:03:43.412 --> 0:03:46.012 new technique and how do we change as a result 0:03:46.012 --> 0:03:51.812 of that. So not necessarily every single bullet story, but 0:03:51.812 --> 0:03:55.692 changes that are interesting that we should potentially look out for. 0:03:55.692 --> 0:04:00.412 So that's that's kind of the vibe for the year. Um, 0:04:00.571 --> 0:04:03.652 not really the year just going forward. And I feel 0:04:03.652 --> 0:04:05.692 like I've been doing this already, but I just wanted 0:04:05.692 --> 0:04:10.052 to tighten that up with, uh, capturing that in the tagline. So, uh, 0:04:10.052 --> 0:04:13.622 relaunch my website. Let me open a tab here. So 0:04:13.702 --> 0:04:17.062 I also switched to AAC which is pretty interesting. So 0:04:17.062 --> 0:04:19.942 this is the new website. And this is uh, these 0:04:19.942 --> 0:04:22.142 are my tabs over here on the left. So AAC 0:04:22.182 --> 0:04:25.422 is a Chrome based browser and it does tabs on 0:04:25.422 --> 0:04:28.462 the left instead of at the top. But, uh, this 0:04:28.462 --> 0:04:31.702 is the new website. This is, uh, something I've been 0:04:31.702 --> 0:04:33.942 working on for a very long time. It might look 0:04:33.942 --> 0:04:36.622 very similar to previous versions of the website. It kind 0:04:36.662 --> 0:04:39.742 of does. But what I did was break the website 0:04:39.742 --> 0:04:42.662 out separate from the newsletter. So the newsletter, instead of 0:04:42.662 --> 0:04:51.222 being Daniel Miessler, whatever it's newsletter.com/whatever. So kind of still 0:04:51.222 --> 0:04:53.182 the same. And you could also get to there by 0:04:53.222 --> 0:04:56.582 going to uh, unsupervised learning. You can find it lots 0:04:56.582 --> 0:04:58.982 of different ways, but bottom line is the newsletter is 0:04:58.982 --> 0:05:02.462 now a sub domain under Daniel Comm, and the main 0:05:02.462 --> 0:05:06.022 site is just a core site. So I'm working on 0:05:06.022 --> 0:05:09.382 getting my ideas up here. I got the blog already 0:05:09.502 --> 0:05:12.272 somewhat working, got a new post here which I think 0:05:12.272 --> 0:05:16.472 I talk about in the newsletter and all my study articles. 0:05:16.472 --> 0:05:19.712 These are all my articles going back. And these are 0:05:19.712 --> 0:05:23.552 essentially this is all my content going back to like 1996. 0:05:23.992 --> 0:05:27.952 So um, got predictions I'm going to put up here soon. 0:05:27.952 --> 0:05:33.432 But if you're a typography geek, hopefully you really love this. Um, 0:05:33.472 --> 0:05:35.752 I want to give a shout out to Matthew Butterick, 0:05:36.352 --> 0:05:38.912 who I got a lot of the site design from. 0:05:38.912 --> 0:05:42.791 I purchased his his paid fonts like six times now, 0:05:42.832 --> 0:05:45.912 I think like 4 or 5, six times, something like that. 0:05:46.392 --> 0:05:50.112 And I purchased them again, uh, in this update. So 0:05:50.112 --> 0:05:53.152 these are all custom fonts. Like this is not stuff 0:05:53.152 --> 0:05:57.232 you can get anywhere else. And, uh, yeah, really, really 0:05:57.232 --> 0:06:00.632 cool stuff. Uh, so I'm excited about that. Um, next thing, 0:06:01.072 --> 0:06:05.752 let's see here. Yeah. So I've just spent like 60 hours. 0:06:05.792 --> 0:06:09.912 It's probably more like 80 hours, honestly, at this point, 0:06:10.072 --> 0:06:17.032 Optimizing my workflows. Tooling. Operating system. Notes. Techniques. Procedures. Calendar. 0:06:17.752 --> 0:06:22.712 Everything that I do to, like, stay aware. Um. How 0:06:22.712 --> 0:06:26.672 I take notes. My operating system. My keyboard shortcuts. My 0:06:26.672 --> 0:06:32.432 text editor. Everything has been optimized. I've basically spent, I 0:06:32.432 --> 0:06:37.592 don't know how many other separate hours watching video on Neovim, 0:06:37.632 --> 0:06:42.672 on raycast, and and basically tons of different tools that 0:06:42.672 --> 0:06:46.312 I use to be able to optimize things. So just 0:06:46.312 --> 0:06:48.472 a slight teaser on this if you see in my 0:06:48.472 --> 0:06:52.392 upper right hand bar here. So this is Riverside, which 0:06:52.392 --> 0:06:55.032 we're recording in right now. This is a little active thing, 0:06:55.232 --> 0:06:59.192 but I've got CPU, GPU here. Um, I've got my network, 0:06:59.792 --> 0:07:03.512 but um, look at this one. If I pull this down, look, 0:07:03.512 --> 0:07:07.312 you can see all my different things that I have 0:07:07.352 --> 0:07:11.482 going on today. I could see. Um, this is heads down. 0:07:11.482 --> 0:07:13.922 Work that I'm doing right now. Should actually say recording 0:07:13.922 --> 0:07:18.002 a podcast, but whatever. Um, I could see my month here. 0:07:18.202 --> 0:07:20.562 This is how many people are currently on my website. Uh, 0:07:20.562 --> 0:07:24.362 so this is like a live fathom analytics thing. Got 0:07:24.362 --> 0:07:28.442 my current temperature. Got my notes here. Um, so this 0:07:28.442 --> 0:07:32.482 is called hidden bar. And this really tightens up my 0:07:32.562 --> 0:07:35.922 menu bar. Uh, because there's a whole lot of other stuff. 0:07:35.922 --> 0:07:38.042 If I click here, this is all the stuff it 0:07:38.082 --> 0:07:40.122 wanted to present to me. Right. So I've got it 0:07:40.122 --> 0:07:42.642 locked down to just this. And that's just one of 0:07:42.642 --> 0:07:45.082 the things that I'm working on. In fact, I'm doing 0:07:45.082 --> 0:07:50.882 a member, uh, episode, not an episode. A mid-month meetup 0:07:51.402 --> 0:07:55.642 is actually Thursdays, uh, the second Thursday of the month, 0:07:55.642 --> 0:07:59.842 which I think is today. And we get together. Oh, actually, 0:07:59.842 --> 0:08:03.442 I mentioned right here. So, um, I am covering everything 0:08:03.442 --> 0:08:06.362 that I did. I've got this massive document over here, 0:08:07.162 --> 0:08:10.292 and I'm covering everything that I've done for these optimizations, 0:08:10.292 --> 0:08:12.812 and I'm just going one after another in that thing. 0:08:13.252 --> 0:08:16.692 And that's going to be released as a video for members. 0:08:16.812 --> 0:08:19.732 So yeah, looking forward to doing that later on today. 0:08:19.892 --> 0:08:22.372 And I might put that out or put it partially 0:08:22.372 --> 0:08:24.212 out on YouTube. I'm not sure what I'm going to 0:08:24.212 --> 0:08:27.452 do with that, but members are definitely getting it for free. Uh, 0:08:27.452 --> 0:08:31.692 let's see here. More focus, more discipline. Primary projects for 0:08:31.692 --> 0:08:35.572 2025 launching same page which is commercial offering and then 0:08:35.612 --> 0:08:39.692 human 3.0, which is more of a community humanity benefit 0:08:39.732 --> 0:08:44.011 type thing, as well as working on my, uh, technology stack, 0:08:44.532 --> 0:08:47.011 building out Damon, doing all the stuff that I've been 0:08:47.011 --> 0:08:53.252 talking about in my other posts. Substrate. Telos. Um, all 0:08:53.252 --> 0:08:56.372 that different stuff is basically what I'm building out as 0:08:56.372 --> 0:08:59.092 tech stacks. So they're actually going to live on my domain. 0:08:59.092 --> 0:09:03.332 So damon.com is actually going to be broadcasting a live 0:09:03.332 --> 0:09:09.182 API of what I'm finding It's interesting. My favorite preference is, um, 0:09:09.182 --> 0:09:12.102 my favorite books. What am I currently reading? This is 0:09:12.102 --> 0:09:16.422 something I did in the early 2000 with a tool 0:09:16.422 --> 0:09:19.982 called Friendfeed, and I'm now going to be doing with 0:09:19.982 --> 0:09:26.382 new technology, with API technology, with AI. Um, and yeah, 0:09:26.382 --> 0:09:29.422 it's just it's going to be absolutely insane. And it's 0:09:29.422 --> 0:09:32.022 all part of the same thing, which is H3, which 0:09:32.022 --> 0:09:36.102 is human 3.0. Um, now I'm also launching, which I've 0:09:36.142 --> 0:09:37.862 talked about before in a bunch of people have pinged 0:09:37.862 --> 0:09:40.902 me about, I'm launching a platform that you can actually 0:09:40.942 --> 0:09:44.062 sign up for, and it's got a membership, uh, which 0:09:44.062 --> 0:09:46.062 will be a whole lot cheaper for people who are 0:09:46.062 --> 0:09:49.422 already part of, uh, UL. But but anyway, there's a 0:09:49.422 --> 0:09:53.182 paid offering that, like, curates the content that you get 0:09:53.182 --> 0:09:56.902 to move through H3. There's a maturity model for H3. 0:09:56.902 --> 0:09:58.662 It's going to show you exactly where you are. It's 0:09:58.662 --> 0:10:01.582 going to show you where you need to go. Um, 0:10:01.582 --> 0:10:04.422 and I'm going to keep releasing content into there. And 0:10:04.422 --> 0:10:08.992 that's basically like a it's a managed platform for upgrading 0:10:08.992 --> 0:10:12.592 yourself to human 3.0. Okay. But I want to make 0:10:12.592 --> 0:10:16.032 very clear most of the content that's going to be 0:10:16.032 --> 0:10:19.872 in there. It's all on GitHub, right? The whole point 0:10:19.872 --> 0:10:24.592 of human 3.0 is to upgrade everyone, give everyone these tools. Right. 0:10:24.952 --> 0:10:27.552 So the stuff that I'm putting in the platform, that's 0:10:27.552 --> 0:10:30.632 just going to look prettier, it's going to have the 0:10:30.632 --> 0:10:33.792 maturity model. It's going to have like a lots of 0:10:33.792 --> 0:10:37.232 extra things like ratings and grades and like it's going 0:10:37.232 --> 0:10:40.472 to move you through like a curriculum, things like that. 0:10:40.472 --> 0:10:44.032 But the content itself I'm going to be talking about 0:10:44.032 --> 0:10:47.672 on YouTube for free, I'm going to be releasing on 0:10:47.672 --> 0:10:49.672 the blog for free. I'm going to be putting in 0:10:49.672 --> 0:10:52.512 social media for free, like all, and it's going to 0:10:52.512 --> 0:10:54.752 be in GitHub for free, because I want this to 0:10:54.752 --> 0:10:56.792 apply to everyone. I'm not trying to get everyone on 0:10:56.792 --> 0:10:59.912 some platform, like the whole thing is not a trick. 0:10:59.912 --> 0:11:02.552 To get people into a platform, is what I'm saying, right? 0:11:02.672 --> 0:11:04.962 I want to make money. I'm trying to find a 0:11:04.962 --> 0:11:07.402 way to make some kind of money off of this thing, 0:11:08.242 --> 0:11:13.122 but it is like the 19th goal of this project. 0:11:13.202 --> 0:11:17.082 The goal of the project is to get people freaking out. 0:11:17.922 --> 0:11:20.762 Not not a panic, not FUD, but I want them 0:11:20.762 --> 0:11:24.002 to be like, oh crap, this thing is coming. I 0:11:24.002 --> 0:11:27.922 need to get ready. What do I do right now? 0:11:28.002 --> 0:11:30.202 You can watch the videos, you can go to GitHub. 0:11:30.282 --> 0:11:32.122 You can just do those things and you get to 0:11:32.162 --> 0:11:34.962 the same place that you get by using the paid platform. 0:11:34.962 --> 0:11:38.562 You do not need to use my paid platform or 0:11:38.562 --> 0:11:41.242 any other paid platform. You could just follow the stuff 0:11:41.242 --> 0:11:44.042 that I'm talking about and do it. And you're going 0:11:44.082 --> 0:11:47.202 to be, you know, pretty much there. Um, that being said, 0:11:47.202 --> 0:11:51.002 people are still saying, look, tell me exactly what to do. 0:11:51.002 --> 0:11:52.842 Where do I sign up? What do I do? So 0:11:52.842 --> 0:11:55.202 that that's the reason I'm making the paid offering, but 0:11:55.202 --> 0:11:57.761 it's all the same stuff. That's the whole point here. 0:11:57.882 --> 0:12:00.562 All right, got some items here. Uh, what I expect 0:12:00.562 --> 0:12:04.332 for 2025, a lot of chaos, which comes with opportunity, 0:12:04.852 --> 0:12:08.092 a bias towards action. So I think people who see 0:12:08.132 --> 0:12:11.452 chaos as an opportunity to just move and build and create, 0:12:11.532 --> 0:12:14.332 they're going to have a massive advantage in 25. I 0:12:14.372 --> 0:12:19.052 companies move towards agents. Everybody's saying that, uh, many AI 0:12:19.092 --> 0:12:21.772 companies start falling. So you're going to see the crash 0:12:21.772 --> 0:12:25.932 and the rise, which I talked about last year. Um, oh, 0:12:25.972 --> 0:12:27.932 is our AI companies going to crash or are they 0:12:27.972 --> 0:12:30.572 going to, like, thrive? The answer is both. The answer 0:12:30.572 --> 0:12:33.892 is yes. Both are going to happen a whole lot. 0:12:33.932 --> 0:12:37.892 Millions and millions of dollars of AI companies are just 0:12:37.892 --> 0:12:40.732 going to go out of business because they were just 0:12:40.732 --> 0:12:43.372 like it was a gimmick, or they hadn't thought of 0:12:43.372 --> 0:12:47.892 a long strategy or they got eaten up by the platforms. Right. 0:12:47.892 --> 0:12:49.932 So a whole bunch of that's going to go down. 0:12:50.092 --> 0:12:53.412 But the really smart AI companies and the platforms and 0:12:53.412 --> 0:12:57.131 the big tech who's actually using the stuff, they're going 0:12:57.132 --> 0:12:59.652 to go up that that's my guess. Yeah. Big tech 0:12:59.652 --> 0:13:03.222 and truly innovative AI companies start to hockey stick. Developers 0:13:03.222 --> 0:13:08.822 switch from minor assistance to largely AI based dev. That's 0:13:08.822 --> 0:13:12.462 a huge one. Becomes more obvious that AI will replace 0:13:12.462 --> 0:13:17.662 lots of knowledge work. AI discourse switches from AC to 0:13:17.662 --> 0:13:21.942 human work replacement. So instead of us talking about oh, 0:13:21.982 --> 0:13:23.942 how good is AI going to be or whatever, I 0:13:23.942 --> 0:13:26.462 think we're going to start talking about, Holy crap, this 0:13:26.462 --> 0:13:30.542 thing is taking jobs. Now Salesforce. Benioff he just said 0:13:30.542 --> 0:13:35.302 he's not hiring any more developers. Going forward, I would 0:13:35.302 --> 0:13:38.302 say that would be a stronger signal if somebody like 0:13:38.462 --> 0:13:42.582 Google said that or if somebody's like, I don't know, 0:13:43.582 --> 0:13:48.222 said that somebody normal who's not building AI products, right. 0:13:48.262 --> 0:13:52.062 It's it's a little bit less believable if they're also 0:13:52.062 --> 0:13:55.902 building a product that replaces humans. So essentially he's talking 0:13:55.902 --> 0:13:59.022 his own book. That being said, I think there is 0:13:59.022 --> 0:14:03.391 something real and worth listening to in what he said. Like, 0:14:03.992 --> 0:14:07.072 I mean, I don't think he's lying and he's saying 0:14:07.072 --> 0:14:10.472 his productivity from AI is way up, but you got 0:14:10.512 --> 0:14:12.472 to take it with a little bit of a grain 0:14:12.512 --> 0:14:15.552 of salt. Given the fact that he's selling a product 0:14:15.552 --> 0:14:18.992 that replaces workers, right? So he's basically saying, my product 0:14:18.992 --> 0:14:21.592 is so good that I'm using it and I don't 0:14:21.592 --> 0:14:24.592 have to hire developers. So it's a little bit of marketing. Um, 0:14:24.592 --> 0:14:27.592 all right. Next one. More people start asking what humans 0:14:27.592 --> 0:14:30.072 are supposed to do post work. Right. And that's what 0:14:30.072 --> 0:14:34.112 I've been getting in front of for the last few years. Okay. Security. U.S. 0:14:34.112 --> 0:14:39.952 Army soldier was arrested for allegedly selling AT&T and Verizon 0:14:39.952 --> 0:14:45.872 customer data as the cyber Phantom. Yeah. 20 year old 0:14:45.872 --> 0:14:52.072 communications specialist in the Army. Allegedly stolen leaked sensitive call records. Okay. Uh, 0:14:52.072 --> 0:14:56.192 there's a critical release for item two fixes. Um, but 0:14:56.192 --> 0:14:58.992 you should not be messing with that. You should be 0:14:59.162 --> 0:15:03.082 messing with this. Oh, this is so good. Um, hopefully 0:15:03.082 --> 0:15:05.602 it comes up. Ghosty site. Where are you? What are 0:15:05.602 --> 0:15:08.842 you doing? Where's the site? There we go. A glitch 0:15:08.842 --> 0:15:14.482 in the matrix. All right, this is the website. So, documentation. Um, 0:15:14.482 --> 0:15:19.242 you can get it from source on GitHub. Ghosty is 0:15:19.442 --> 0:15:24.682 the best shell. I'm telling you, it is extraordinary. Um, yeah. 0:15:24.722 --> 0:15:26.322 Let me, uh, let me just show you what it 0:15:26.322 --> 0:15:28.522 looks like. Well, it looks like a shell. It looks 0:15:28.522 --> 0:15:31.602 very similar to my kiddie setup. It looks very similar 0:15:31.602 --> 0:15:33.922 to my other stuff. Let me just tell you, it's 0:15:33.922 --> 0:15:37.882 from this guy named Mitchell Hashimoto. And, uh, this guy 0:15:37.882 --> 0:15:44.362 who's a co-founder of HashiCorp, and he is extraordinarily bright, uh, 0:15:44.362 --> 0:15:48.322 forward thinking. And he basically figured out how to get 0:15:48.322 --> 0:15:51.482 all three things. Um, I forget all the three things. 0:15:51.482 --> 0:15:56.162 It's like speed, uh, compliance and, like, usability or something 0:15:56.162 --> 0:16:00.212 like that, but basically all the different um, yeah. Compliances 0:16:00.212 --> 0:16:03.332 like standards following essentially. So what do you figure out 0:16:03.332 --> 0:16:06.652 how to do is he's building this thing to be 0:16:06.652 --> 0:16:10.892 the most standards compliant, the most fast and the most 0:16:10.892 --> 0:16:15.012 fun to use and the most easy to configure. And, uh, 0:16:15.012 --> 0:16:18.292 so if I do gconf, this is what, uh, yeah. 0:16:18.292 --> 0:16:21.532 I'll just expand this out. Oh, by the way, maximize. Oh, 0:16:21.572 --> 0:16:24.692 look at that. All right. Maximize. Boom boom boom boom. 0:16:25.332 --> 0:16:27.892 So this this is what the config looks like. It's 0:16:27.932 --> 0:16:32.292 kind of similar to kiddie config, but, um I've got 0:16:32.292 --> 0:16:36.252 my Tokyo night theme going here. Uh, I've got a 0:16:36.252 --> 0:16:40.772 whole bunch of work I put into configuring this after watching, like, 0:16:41.292 --> 0:16:45.092 25 videos from people who've done their various things. Uh, 0:16:45.092 --> 0:16:50.172 shout out to link Arzu on YouTube. Okay. He was 0:16:50.172 --> 0:16:55.812 a big influence on my configs. Uh, one of the 0:16:55.892 --> 0:16:58.972 first videos I looked at for go see config. He 0:16:58.972 --> 0:17:01.372 was one of the people who was beta testing it earlier. 0:17:01.892 --> 0:17:05.171 And in general he's just been doing some pretty cool stuff, 0:17:05.172 --> 0:17:07.852 so I would definitely recommend checking him out. In fact, 0:17:07.851 --> 0:17:11.332 I'm going to pull him up right now. Link carzou. 0:17:11.372 --> 0:17:16.052 I think that's how you pronounce it. YouTube. Oh, look 0:17:16.052 --> 0:17:19.892 at this, I switched. I did something crazy. I switched 0:17:19.892 --> 0:17:24.332 my main browser, uh, search engine. In fact, my main 0:17:24.332 --> 0:17:30.132 search engine. Overall to perplexity. I'm trying it. I know 0:17:30.132 --> 0:17:32.571 Google is probably going to come out with perplexity killing 0:17:32.572 --> 0:17:35.212 features soon, and I might switch back at that point, 0:17:35.332 --> 0:17:38.572 but I'm trying to use Link Perplexity as my main 0:17:38.572 --> 0:17:41.811 browser search engine, and it's going pretty well. So this 0:17:41.812 --> 0:17:46.372 is the thing. Link carzou. That's how I'm saying it. He's, uh, Latin, 0:17:46.372 --> 0:17:50.132 so I don't know. I'm not sure how he says it, 0:17:50.132 --> 0:17:53.012 but anyway, uh, this guy has a bunch of cool 0:17:53.012 --> 0:17:58.182 videos about basically terminal configs. Um, kind of like super 0:17:58.182 --> 0:18:02.422 nerdy stuff. And I like it. There are good videos, 0:18:02.542 --> 0:18:05.302 and also it's very geeky and in the weeds. And 0:18:05.302 --> 0:18:07.782 this is why I've spent probably 60 to 80 hours 0:18:07.782 --> 0:18:11.302 messing around with my terminal config and raycasts and stuff 0:18:11.302 --> 0:18:15.142 like that. Not sure if he uses raycast, but anyway, uh, 0:18:15.142 --> 0:18:18.542 worth looking at. And then command S to get rid 0:18:18.582 --> 0:18:21.662 of the sidebar. All right. Where are we at? Um, yeah. 0:18:21.702 --> 0:18:24.782 Use ghost instead of Iterm. Uh, that's where we're at. Uh, 0:18:24.782 --> 0:18:29.382 basically iterm major problem. I went from Iterm2 to alacrity 0:18:29.742 --> 0:18:37.662 to kitty, and then to ghosty. I think that was my, uh, movement. 0:18:37.782 --> 0:18:43.782 So it was terminal iterm alacrity, Kitty. Ghosty. And I 0:18:43.782 --> 0:18:45.542 think I'm going to be on ghosty for a very 0:18:45.542 --> 0:18:49.262 long time. Uh, assuming he maintains that project, which that's 0:18:49.262 --> 0:18:51.502 why I think I'm likely to stay with them, is 0:18:51.502 --> 0:18:54.672 because it is likely to maintain it for a very 0:18:54.672 --> 0:18:57.192 long time. He's just putting that sort of future work 0:18:57.192 --> 0:19:00.872 into it. China's turned one of its most prominent pro-democracy 0:19:00.872 --> 0:19:05.071 dissidents into a spy by threatening his sick parents. Okay, 0:19:05.112 --> 0:19:08.111 so this calls attention to China's use of emotional pressure 0:19:08.112 --> 0:19:13.072 and family ties to coerce members of its diaspora into 0:19:13.112 --> 0:19:17.872 becoming intelligence assets. Hard to say how big this problem is, 0:19:17.872 --> 0:19:21.392 but I'm definitely worried about it. They could basically activate 0:19:21.392 --> 0:19:26.152 millions of people in their diaspora by leveraging nationalism, political pressure, 0:19:26.432 --> 0:19:32.552 threats to family or whatever. Right. And it doesn't mean like, oh, 0:19:32.592 --> 0:19:35.472 anybody who's Chinese works in a tech company. Like you 0:19:35.472 --> 0:19:37.912 need to worry about them because they're a spy. That's 0:19:37.912 --> 0:19:42.152 not the case, right? Uh, vast majority of anybody in 0:19:42.152 --> 0:19:46.712 any company who's, you know, from another country, they're just 0:19:46.712 --> 0:19:50.192 there to do their thing. Right. They've bought into the US. 0:19:50.192 --> 0:19:52.552 They bought into the company. They're doing their thing. The 0:19:52.682 --> 0:19:56.242 problem is, China is so controlling and so powerful. They 0:19:56.242 --> 0:19:58.962 could just be like, look, you are a Chinese citizen. Like, 0:19:58.962 --> 0:20:01.682 I don't care where you live, you are a Chinese citizen. 0:20:01.682 --> 0:20:05.402 And by the way, um, I hope your Aunt Nancy 0:20:05.402 --> 0:20:07.962 is doing well. Um, yeah, we just paid a visit 0:20:07.962 --> 0:20:12.042 to her. It looks like she needs groceries. Um, hope 0:20:12.042 --> 0:20:15.922 she doesn't get sick or something. That kind of pressure 0:20:15.922 --> 0:20:18.682 coming from China when if you if you know about 0:20:18.682 --> 0:20:23.002 Chinese citizens, they are really afraid and really respectful of 0:20:23.002 --> 0:20:26.242 their government. They do not talk bad about it. They 0:20:26.242 --> 0:20:29.682 do not acknowledge many, many of them do not even 0:20:29.682 --> 0:20:34.442 acknowledge Tiananmen Square. I mean, we're talking about extreme pressure, 0:20:34.442 --> 0:20:39.922 which has been drilled into them for their entire education, right? 0:20:39.962 --> 0:20:43.722 Their entire lives. And that pressure is dangerous, is what 0:20:43.722 --> 0:20:46.762 I'm saying. It doesn't mean everyone's going to automatically just 0:20:46.762 --> 0:20:48.841 be like, okay, of course I'm going to do what 0:20:48.842 --> 0:20:51.412 I'm going to do. But it's something to consider and consider, 0:20:51.412 --> 0:20:53.811 and it's something that not enough people are talking about. 0:20:54.692 --> 0:20:57.331 The trick is you want to be as a company. 0:20:57.332 --> 0:21:00.371 You want to be able to understand this. See it 0:21:00.372 --> 0:21:04.252 as a problem. Acknowledge it as a threat, but not 0:21:04.252 --> 0:21:07.172 switch into some racist mode where you're like, oh, all 0:21:07.172 --> 0:21:12.452 Chinese people are, you know, foreign government agents of, you know, 0:21:12.452 --> 0:21:16.612 the CCP. So the question is, how can you maintain 0:21:16.612 --> 0:21:23.772 vigilance and maybe have a threat, internal threat, uh, program 0:21:23.772 --> 0:21:29.892 without being, uh, basically racist and biased and like, nasty, right? 0:21:29.932 --> 0:21:33.292 That that's the trick. And it's really difficult to pull off. 0:21:33.492 --> 0:21:36.132 And I think very few companies are doing that. First 0:21:36.132 --> 0:21:39.732 of all, most people don't have an insider threat program. 0:21:39.732 --> 0:21:42.012 It's hard to run, and it's hard to run without 0:21:42.012 --> 0:21:46.492 getting sued. Right. Because it tends to be nasty by 0:21:46.492 --> 0:21:49.492 its very nature. If you're doing this and you're not 0:21:49.492 --> 0:21:53.502 doing it well and very careful to avoid bias. You 0:21:53.502 --> 0:21:55.542 are going to do it improperly and you're going to 0:21:55.542 --> 0:21:58.702 get sued. And so a lot of companies are just like, hey, look, 0:21:59.222 --> 0:22:01.302 don't look at that stuff, because that's going to get 0:22:01.302 --> 0:22:04.622 us in trouble. And the fact that people are taking 0:22:04.622 --> 0:22:07.062 a hands off approach to this is going to put 0:22:07.062 --> 0:22:09.662 more people at risk. So this is a huge problem. 0:22:09.942 --> 0:22:11.422 A lot of people don't want to talk about it. 0:22:11.462 --> 0:22:13.342 A lot of people can't even do it even if 0:22:13.342 --> 0:22:15.542 they wanted to. And they had the right morals and 0:22:15.542 --> 0:22:19.462 the right ethics. It's still technically very difficult. You need 0:22:19.462 --> 0:22:23.102 a large. It's difficult to pull off. Right? You need 0:22:23.102 --> 0:22:26.822 someone who's with a lot of expertise to run the program. 0:22:26.822 --> 0:22:29.222 Then you need the right tech to be able to 0:22:29.222 --> 0:22:33.742 do it. So, I mean, Google is doing this obviously, 0:22:33.742 --> 0:22:37.302 because they found a whole bunch of, uh, threat actors 0:22:37.302 --> 0:22:39.861 this way. Not not just Chinese, but lots of different 0:22:39.862 --> 0:22:43.182 threat actors using their insider threat program. So it's very, 0:22:43.182 --> 0:22:45.822 very mature. But that's Google. I mean, they they've got 0:22:45.822 --> 0:22:49.872 billions of dollars to throw around. Amnesty International says attackers 0:22:49.872 --> 0:22:53.272 use a HomeKit vulnerability to deploy Pegasus spyware on Serbian 0:22:53.392 --> 0:22:56.632 journalist and activist phones. And holy crap about this one. 0:22:56.632 --> 0:23:00.952 Russia is using Ukrainian kids to help them target airstrikes, 0:23:01.672 --> 0:23:04.512 so they're basically giving them these quest games that involve 0:23:04.552 --> 0:23:07.792 taking photos of military targets as part of a game. 0:23:07.952 --> 0:23:10.831 They go and take pictures of it. They get like whatever, 0:23:10.832 --> 0:23:15.952 they get points. And then the Russian military uses those 0:23:15.952 --> 0:23:21.672 pictures as Intel for where to launch strikes. That's diabolical. 0:23:21.712 --> 0:23:24.312 Microsoft says it's going to delete passwords for a billion 0:23:24.312 --> 0:23:28.592 users as a password. As password attacks double every year. 0:23:28.592 --> 0:23:33.752 They're now blocking 7000 password attacks per second. Treasury Department 0:23:33.752 --> 0:23:36.552 got hacked through their Beyond Trust remote support software by 0:23:36.552 --> 0:23:42.312 Chinese state actors. Hackers combined two words cool vulnerability and 0:23:42.312 --> 0:23:48.722 nuclei lets attackers bypass template signature verification to execute malicious code. 0:23:48.722 --> 0:23:51.642 This was actually fixed back in September. And just as 0:23:51.642 --> 0:23:55.522 a reminder, I am an advisor there. Just disclosure this 0:23:55.522 --> 0:23:58.042 is a solid breakdown of how to use any runs 0:23:58.042 --> 0:24:02.802 threat intelligence lookup for proactive threat detection. So talking about 0:24:02.802 --> 0:24:07.922 regional threat monitoring, artifact verification, TTP tracking, threat evolution monitoring, 0:24:08.562 --> 0:24:13.362 and report enrichment. Congressman Mike Waltz says the incoming administration 0:24:13.362 --> 0:24:18.081 plans to shift from defense to offense in cybersecurity, especially 0:24:18.562 --> 0:24:22.842 against Chinese threat actors. Happy to hear it. Missile attacks 0:24:22.842 --> 0:24:26.401 have now become the leading cause of commercial airline passenger deaths. 0:24:26.402 --> 0:24:30.162 926 people have been killed by missile strikes since 2014. 0:24:30.362 --> 0:24:35.522 So nine? Yeah. 926 in 2014 or no? Since 2014, 0:24:35.922 --> 0:24:41.722 compared to 458 during, uh, for traditional accidents during the 0:24:41.722 --> 0:24:49.091 same period. So like double traditional accidents for 458. Missiles. 926. 0:24:49.172 --> 0:24:53.772 That's still a low number, but that's concerning. And a 0:24:53.772 --> 0:24:58.612 wilderness survival instructor spent two years infiltrating multiple militia groups, 0:24:59.052 --> 0:25:01.692 including becoming a top leader in AP three and gaining 0:25:01.692 --> 0:25:04.972 access to Oath Keepers leadership. It turns out to be 0:25:04.972 --> 0:25:07.332 someone named John Williams. Not sure if that's their full 0:25:07.332 --> 0:25:11.371 name definitely isn't anymore. I could tell you that and 0:25:11.372 --> 0:25:16.012 surveilled a student journalist ultimately going public with what he learned. 0:25:16.012 --> 0:25:20.092 And that report was fairly disturbing. All right. AI and 0:25:20.092 --> 0:25:23.852 tech Sam Altman claims in a new blog post, came 0:25:23.852 --> 0:25:26.732 out end of last year that they figured out how 0:25:26.732 --> 0:25:29.851 to create AGI. And I want to reiterate why I 0:25:29.852 --> 0:25:33.612 think this is the case. Um, it's because AI deploys 0:25:33.612 --> 0:25:39.092 as systems, not models. Right. You don't need the perfect 0:25:39.092 --> 0:25:41.372 model to come out. That is AGI, and it just 0:25:41.372 --> 0:25:44.812 does everything. Competent AI that's going to get rolled out 0:25:44.812 --> 0:25:49.102 and replace human jobs is actually dozens of models or 0:25:49.102 --> 0:25:52.982 dozens of versions of models, all working together as like 0:25:53.582 --> 0:25:56.422 agents passing off to other agents with a bunch of 0:25:56.422 --> 0:26:00.782 glue and plumbing and duct tape all around it. And 0:26:00.782 --> 0:26:04.262 the whole thing works the same way. Human brain does 0:26:04.262 --> 0:26:06.822 a similar way as the human brain does. We've got 0:26:06.822 --> 0:26:10.462 multiple things going on in our in our brains, uh, 0:26:10.462 --> 0:26:15.582 some of which evolved way longer ago than other parts. 0:26:16.342 --> 0:26:20.422 And if you disconnect different pieces from each other, none 0:26:20.422 --> 0:26:26.022 of it works. You can't have consciousness and rational thinking 0:26:26.742 --> 0:26:29.302 and logic and stuff like that. If you mess with 0:26:29.302 --> 0:26:31.822 different parts of the brain, it's the same way with 0:26:31.822 --> 0:26:36.102 an AI system. Okay, sure, you need the model, but 0:26:36.102 --> 0:26:40.141 you also need, um, supporting models. You also need the context. 0:26:40.142 --> 0:26:43.782 You also need the memory mechanism. You also need to 0:26:43.952 --> 0:26:46.432 be able to store long term memory and use short 0:26:46.472 --> 0:26:49.712 term memory and move things out of memory when they're 0:26:49.712 --> 0:26:52.712 all used up. Right. Just like garbage collection in the 0:26:52.752 --> 0:26:56.912 in the human brain. So the thing is a giant 0:26:56.912 --> 0:27:03.392 mess of lots of legacy traditional tech and automation and 0:27:03.392 --> 0:27:07.152 programming combined with all these different AI components. And that 0:27:07.152 --> 0:27:10.672 giant thing rolls out as something that can actually replace 0:27:10.672 --> 0:27:14.752 a human worker. So you shouldn't be thinking, oh, Claude 0:27:15.112 --> 0:27:16.871 four is going to come out and it's going to 0:27:16.872 --> 0:27:21.232 replace humans. No. Somebody's going to release a product around cloud. 0:27:21.712 --> 0:27:26.912 Cloud four. And those models and that product as a 0:27:26.912 --> 0:27:30.071 giant amalgamation is what's going to be able to do 0:27:30.072 --> 0:27:35.232 some damage in terms of human work replacement. Um, the 0:27:35.232 --> 0:27:41.272 second point here, replacing most human knowledge work jobs is 0:27:41.272 --> 0:27:44.162 easier than most think. if you if you think about 0:27:44.162 --> 0:27:46.842 what an average person does day to day with like, 0:27:47.322 --> 0:27:51.642 you know, collecting emails, doing, uh, reading a summary, creating 0:27:51.642 --> 0:27:56.442 a summary, sending out an email, uh, setting up meetings, uh, 0:27:56.442 --> 0:28:01.242 writing a report about, uh, security assessments, um, finding vulnerabilities 0:28:01.242 --> 0:28:05.202 in a thing. These things are not ultimately that difficult. 0:28:05.202 --> 0:28:07.642 And it doesn't mean the far edge of those things 0:28:07.642 --> 0:28:10.802 aren't difficult because they they very much are. And they 0:28:10.802 --> 0:28:14.682 might stay difficult for a long time. But if we 0:28:14.682 --> 0:28:17.922 could do the easy stuff much, much better, that would 0:28:17.922 --> 0:28:23.002 move the economy forward in a massive way. Okay. And 0:28:23.002 --> 0:28:25.562 that's what companies are going to go for. They're going 0:28:25.562 --> 0:28:31.522 to go for the 95% being done 10,000 times faster 0:28:32.402 --> 0:28:36.642 for 100 times cheaper, and for that last 5%, guess what? 0:28:36.642 --> 0:28:40.242 They'll hire experts. They'll hire human experts, along with the 0:28:40.242 --> 0:28:45.482 AI team, which is designed to whittle down that 5%. Right. 0:28:45.842 --> 0:28:49.042 That's why I'm so worried about this. And that's why 0:28:49.042 --> 0:28:52.362 this is such a threat in my opinion. Um, because 0:28:52.362 --> 0:28:55.802 we're not talking about ACI, right? ACI is like, that's 0:28:55.802 --> 0:29:00.442 the supercomputer. That's the thing that OpenAI is now talking about, 0:29:00.442 --> 0:29:05.362 where it could do it better than Einstein or whatever. Well, fine. Cool. 0:29:05.362 --> 0:29:08.042 Keep working on that. What I care about is human 0:29:08.042 --> 0:29:12.082 work replacement because that is a human thing. Humans are 0:29:12.162 --> 0:29:14.962 what I care about, not this tech. So the bar 0:29:14.962 --> 0:29:18.082 for doing this decently well is not that high. And 0:29:18.082 --> 0:29:20.922 that's what I think. AGI is a system good enough 0:29:20.922 --> 0:29:24.162 to replace an average knowledge worker. And I think it's 0:29:24.162 --> 0:29:26.122 a good definition because it deals with the thing we're 0:29:26.162 --> 0:29:30.642 actually concerned about, which is human worker replacement. AGI is 0:29:30.642 --> 0:29:33.922 not or should not be about benchmarks or lab results. 0:29:33.962 --> 0:29:36.802 What matters is humans and how humans are affected by technology. 0:29:36.842 --> 0:29:41.532 That's why I use a human definition of AGI. So 0:29:41.532 --> 0:29:45.612 given that, I think we'll get there in 25 or 26, 0:29:45.732 --> 0:29:50.212 I'd say 40% likely in 2025 and like 50% likely 0:29:50.212 --> 0:29:55.012 in 2026. And I would say like 10% in 2027 0:29:55.012 --> 0:29:58.972 or beyond. CIA built a tiny robot dragonfly spy in 0:29:58.972 --> 0:30:02.332 the 1970s that could fly 200m to deliver a miniature 0:30:02.332 --> 0:30:14.812 laser reflectors for eavesdropping. In the 1970s. 50 years ago. Insects. No. Insects. Orthoptera. Insect. Orthoptera. 0:30:15.572 --> 0:30:18.452 That's actually a pretty cool name. Could flap its wings 0:30:18.452 --> 0:30:23.252 1800 times. They're doing that in the 70s. Waymo's autonomous 0:30:23.252 --> 0:30:26.852 vehicles are showing they're significantly safer than human drivers. Accident 0:30:26.892 --> 0:30:30.812 rate 6.7 times lower than human drivers. United Airlines is 0:30:30.812 --> 0:30:34.492 rolling out Starlink. I cannot wait to get this. Cannot wait. 0:30:35.132 --> 0:30:38.572 Vision Pro just got a planetarium experience. I still haven't 0:30:38.572 --> 0:30:41.262 set haven't set this up. It's downstairs. I need to 0:30:41.262 --> 0:30:45.702 update it and get this going. I love planetariums. I 0:30:45.742 --> 0:30:48.022 grew up going to the planetarium in San Francisco on 0:30:48.022 --> 0:30:51.222 field trips. It's probably why I love astronomy so much 0:30:51.222 --> 0:30:55.382 still today. And I cannot wait to check out this 0:30:55.422 --> 0:31:01.502 planetarium thing on Vision Pro. All right. Uh, den makes 0:31:01.502 --> 0:31:04.502 a compelling case for owning your own corner of the internet. 0:31:04.582 --> 0:31:08.062 Argues that while big platforms like YouTube and Reddit are useful, 0:31:08.062 --> 0:31:13.422 they increasingly, increasingly optimize for engagement and monetization. This is, uh. 0:31:13.422 --> 0:31:14.702 This is what I've been saying. You got to have 0:31:14.702 --> 0:31:18.582 a website. This is why, uh, I made the upgrade 0:31:18.582 --> 0:31:21.062 to my current website. It's like you got to broadcast. 0:31:21.062 --> 0:31:23.662 You got to broadcast yourself. You got to be yourself. 0:31:23.702 --> 0:31:27.421 Full spectrum self. Put yourself out there and have it 0:31:27.422 --> 0:31:31.462 on your own domain. Using your own tech. YouTube can 0:31:31.462 --> 0:31:33.982 go away. You don't think it can, but it can. 0:31:33.982 --> 0:31:38.352 It's probably the least likely one, honestly. Um, but anyway. uh, 0:31:38.352 --> 0:31:44.072 look at medium. Look at, uh, so many different blogging, Tumblr, uh, 0:31:44.112 --> 0:31:48.072 so many different blogging platforms. Myspace that used to be around, 0:31:48.072 --> 0:31:50.472 they were the only thing going for a long time, 0:31:50.472 --> 0:31:53.192 and then they just disappeared. You need to have it yourself. 0:31:53.912 --> 0:31:59.192 Not in some platform. Look, I see people putting amazing 0:31:59.192 --> 0:32:03.112 stuff into LinkedIn and LinkedIn could just change their algorithm. 0:32:03.112 --> 0:32:05.992 The stuff disappears and you're like, where did that go? 0:32:06.232 --> 0:32:09.592 How many hours did you spend putting stuff into LinkedIn? 0:32:09.592 --> 0:32:12.912 And now it's just that that's gone. Your your thoughts 0:32:12.912 --> 0:32:15.152 are gone. Your ideas are gone. It lives in their 0:32:15.152 --> 0:32:18.312 infrastructure somewhere. It's no longer useful to them, so they 0:32:18.312 --> 0:32:23.152 won't service it anymore. You need to have your ideas captured. 0:32:23.872 --> 0:32:26.432 This is part of Telos. It's part of human 3.0. 0:32:26.472 --> 0:32:32.232 You need to have your list of ideas available to yourself. Okay. 0:32:32.232 --> 0:32:34.752 You put them online because it helps you track them, 0:32:35.472 --> 0:32:38.482 but it also helps other people find you so you 0:32:38.482 --> 0:32:42.242 can have meaningful human conversations about those topics. You cannot 0:32:42.242 --> 0:32:45.042 do that if the stuff lives inside of medium, or 0:32:45.042 --> 0:32:52.002 it lives inside of Facebook or X or wherever. Get 0:32:52.002 --> 0:32:54.682 the stuff where it where it needs to be as 0:32:54.682 --> 0:32:58.642 your own stuff. Okay. So look, I'm going to have 0:32:58.642 --> 0:33:00.882 all my stuff here as ideas. I've already got this. 0:33:00.882 --> 0:33:03.282 I just need to move it over. Right? I just 0:33:03.282 --> 0:33:05.161 need to go and collect the stuff. But that's where 0:33:05.162 --> 0:33:08.202 it's going to be. My list of predictions from, like, 0:33:08.202 --> 0:33:11.562 the book Super Forecasting, which you need to check out. Um, 0:33:12.442 --> 0:33:17.442 my predictions are going to be labeled, listed and labeled 0:33:17.442 --> 0:33:20.402 in the kind of the style of super forecasting which 0:33:20.402 --> 0:33:23.762 talks about making good predictions. But you don't want to 0:33:23.762 --> 0:33:26.442 be making this prediction on LinkedIn and having it disappear. 0:33:26.442 --> 0:33:28.562 And you can't even remember. I had to write a 0:33:28.562 --> 0:33:32.402 rag for myself, which I just recently did. That allows 0:33:32.402 --> 0:33:35.052 me to query any content that I've made I've made 0:33:35.052 --> 0:33:40.092 since 1996. Right. Um, and you want to be able 0:33:40.092 --> 0:33:41.532 to do that for yourself? You want to be able 0:33:41.532 --> 0:33:43.812 to say, what was that thing I was talking about 0:33:43.852 --> 0:33:50.092 that about, uh, that pizza recipe or woodworking or, um, 0:33:50.092 --> 0:33:52.932 how to play the guitar a certain way. Right. These 0:33:52.932 --> 0:33:55.172 these are all deeply human things. You need to have 0:33:55.172 --> 0:33:58.132 access to them. This is like a second brain. This 0:33:58.132 --> 0:34:02.452 is the augmentation of your brain with tech around you 0:34:02.452 --> 0:34:05.372 that helps you remember who you are and what you are. 0:34:06.092 --> 0:34:10.091 Continuing on here, the chart of everything economists created a 0:34:10.092 --> 0:34:13.932 stunning visualization to show how literally everything in existence emerged 0:34:13.931 --> 0:34:17.091 from the Big Bang. This one was really cool. How 0:34:17.092 --> 0:34:20.172 do you fit everything in the universe on a chart? Okay. 0:34:20.212 --> 0:34:22.812 That one, that one's paywalled. I need to log in. 0:34:23.411 --> 0:34:26.091 Paul Cohen makes a compelling case for universities to start 0:34:26.091 --> 0:34:30.451 training polymaths again instead of specialists arguing that modern problems 0:34:30.451 --> 0:34:36.022 like climate change and sustainability require broad systems level understanding 100% agree. 0:34:36.502 --> 0:34:42.962 Massive 40% 44% of US unicorn founders between 97 and 0:34:42.962 --> 0:34:47.701 2019 were born outside the US. That's half guys. Half. 0:34:48.622 --> 0:34:52.261 Half of unicorn founders from the last 20 years are 0:34:52.261 --> 0:34:56.222 foreign born. That is how crucial immigration is. Survey of 0:34:56.261 --> 0:35:00.622 86 convicted burglars confirms that security cameras and alarms actually 0:35:00.661 --> 0:35:06.502 do work as deterrents. Ideas I as founder augmentation and 0:35:06.622 --> 0:35:09.741 bet on doers that treat failure as fuel. This is 0:35:09.741 --> 0:35:14.462 why I'm so big on, uh, Jensen Huang and Elon 0:35:14.462 --> 0:35:17.781 is because they just push, push push push wake up 0:35:17.781 --> 0:35:19.981 in the morning. Similar to myself. I wake up in 0:35:19.982 --> 0:35:22.981 the morning and I'm just like massively excited. I'm like, oh, 0:35:22.982 --> 0:35:24.501 there's so much I need to do. I've got to 0:35:24.502 --> 0:35:26.301 fix the website. I've got to do all these things. 0:35:26.301 --> 0:35:28.181 I've got all these cards in front of me, I've 0:35:28.181 --> 0:35:32.552 got my projects list for the year. I'm just like, boom, boom, boom, Go. 0:35:32.832 --> 0:35:35.632 You want to bet on people like that? I'm actually 0:35:35.631 --> 0:35:38.312 betting on people like that because I'm in Tesla and 0:35:38.312 --> 0:35:42.032 I'm in Nvidia. In terms of stocks, the point is 0:35:42.631 --> 0:35:48.711 it's not because of the model Y or the 4090 GPU. 0:35:49.071 --> 0:35:52.151 It's because of the person. So that's the point there. Discovery. 0:35:52.192 --> 0:35:56.792 New Kaido Kaido plugin product by my buddies Joseph Thacker 0:35:56.792 --> 0:36:01.111 and Justin Rhino Rader. Basically, this is a new plugin 0:36:01.111 --> 0:36:05.471 for using AI to help you do security assessments, especially 0:36:05.471 --> 0:36:10.632 on web apps within Kaido, which is a burp competitor. 0:36:10.631 --> 0:36:14.111 And Joseph launched this as a product. Well, both of 0:36:14.111 --> 0:36:16.592 them launched it as a product. So it's a plugin 0:36:16.591 --> 0:36:20.671 inside of Kaido and you should check it out. Joseph 0:36:20.792 --> 0:36:23.191 is a close friend and super cool and you should 0:36:23.192 --> 0:36:26.511 go check it out. Brand AI Analysis Tool. Someone made 0:36:26.511 --> 0:36:30.231 a cool agent that shows you how ChatGPT perceives and 0:36:30.232 --> 0:36:36.522 recommends different brands. This is becoming huge. Okay, you ask 0:36:36.921 --> 0:36:42.041 I to compare brands. And if you are a brand 0:36:42.042 --> 0:36:45.082 and I says something about about you, guess what? That's 0:36:45.082 --> 0:36:48.321 the new SEO. That is the new SEO. Because guess what? 0:36:48.562 --> 0:36:53.161 The AI presumably has looked at thousands of different forum 0:36:53.161 --> 0:36:57.442 posts or whatever it is representing reality. If you score 0:36:57.482 --> 0:37:00.401 worse than something else or it says something about about you. 0:37:00.642 --> 0:37:03.842 If the AI is decent, which it probably is, that 0:37:03.841 --> 0:37:06.882 thing that's negative that was said about you is probably true. 0:37:07.361 --> 0:37:09.642 So this is a way of getting to ground truth 0:37:09.642 --> 0:37:12.802 about how you are perceived. You could do this for people. 0:37:12.801 --> 0:37:14.642 You could do this for countries. You could do this 0:37:14.642 --> 0:37:18.201 for whatever. In this particular thing it's looking at brands. 0:37:18.801 --> 0:37:22.041 But this is the this is kind of the way 0:37:22.042 --> 0:37:25.282 things are going is you ask AI what the current 0:37:25.281 --> 0:37:27.761 state of the world is. That's what this comes down to. 0:37:28.201 --> 0:37:30.171 And then if you don't like that Like that state, 0:37:30.332 --> 0:37:33.372 you do something about it hitting OKRs versus doing your job. 0:37:33.372 --> 0:37:37.052 Great explanation of how OKRs should focus on new initiatives 0:37:37.332 --> 0:37:41.292 and changes rather than duplicating regular work tracking. Amen to that. 0:37:41.451 --> 0:37:45.971 Amen not amen. I say amen at the table. I'm 0:37:45.971 --> 0:37:48.531 an atheist, by the way, so you do the calculus 0:37:48.531 --> 0:37:52.852 on that. But I think anyway, it doesn't matter. Raspberry 0:37:52.852 --> 0:37:55.852 shake a line of professional grade seismographs for home and 0:37:55.852 --> 0:38:01.171 educational use. It can detect ground movements smaller than 1/100 0:38:01.171 --> 0:38:05.451 of a human width of hair. So it's going to 0:38:05.491 --> 0:38:09.971 hear me listening to music in this studio. I didn't 0:38:09.971 --> 0:38:14.612 buy one yet, but oh man, I really want one. 0:38:15.292 --> 0:38:17.051 You know what? I'm just going to get one. See 0:38:17.051 --> 0:38:19.852 what you made me do. See what you made me do. 0:38:19.852 --> 0:38:24.411 All right, 25 Useful Ideas for 2025. This guy Gurwinder 0:38:24.732 --> 0:38:28.291 is one of my favorite thinkers right now. This is 0:38:28.462 --> 0:38:32.062 an extraordinary list. You should have gotten the newsletter already. 0:38:32.062 --> 0:38:34.741 By the way, if you're not getting the newsletter, you 0:38:34.741 --> 0:38:39.341 go to Daniel newsletter and sign up for it. That 0:38:39.341 --> 0:38:41.142 is the way to get all these show notes because 0:38:41.142 --> 0:38:43.982 I'm jumping around all over the place. It's very clear 0:38:43.982 --> 0:38:45.622 right here in the newsletter, which is the thing that 0:38:45.622 --> 0:38:48.622 I'm reading, right. So go check that out. Okay. Uh, 0:38:48.661 --> 0:38:52.461 let's see here. SF purity test. Someone made a hilarious 0:38:52.462 --> 0:38:55.341 checklist scoring system for how deep you are in SF 0:38:55.381 --> 0:38:59.501 tech culture. Which items like apply to OpenAI switch from 0:38:59.502 --> 0:39:05.222 ChatGPT to cloud and back. Uh, told somebody you won't 0:39:05.221 --> 0:39:08.301 date because AGI is coming. Those are accurate and they 0:39:08.301 --> 0:39:12.181 shouldn't be. YOLO security. Somebody made a parody Pentesting company 0:39:12.181 --> 0:39:17.022 website that generates empty pen test reports to make management happy. Yep. 0:39:17.062 --> 0:39:21.541 Python one shot tools by Simon Wilkinson CF hero new 0:39:21.542 --> 0:39:25.581 tool for finding real IP addresses behind Cloudflare. Technical debt 0:39:25.622 --> 0:39:30.982 is entropy in software. The title itself is good. I mean, yeah, 0:39:31.701 --> 0:39:36.582 types make hard problems easy. I am a TypeScript convert. 0:39:36.901 --> 0:39:41.102 I'm learning it. I'm using it. I'm not learning it deeply. Honestly, 0:39:41.102 --> 0:39:44.022 I'm just using it more as I'm building things. And 0:39:44.062 --> 0:39:47.581 I'm especially telling my AI to use TypeScript when I'm 0:39:47.582 --> 0:39:51.301 having it build things for me. But in the process, 0:39:51.462 --> 0:39:54.901 I'm slowly converting over. Oh, by the way, whenever I 0:39:54.901 --> 0:39:58.261 do anything with Python, I'm using UV now. And this 0:39:58.261 --> 0:40:00.781 is actually in my cursor notes. In fact, I'm going 0:40:00.821 --> 0:40:03.781 to show my cursor notes real quick. Oh yeah. Look 0:40:03.781 --> 0:40:07.341 at this. Uh, look at that. I almost showed a 0:40:07.341 --> 0:40:10.861 whole bunch of keys. And that's specifically what I was 0:40:10.861 --> 0:40:13.582 trying not to do. And I'm almost dragged the window 0:40:13.582 --> 0:40:16.421 over and showed a whole bunch of keys. Um, I 0:40:16.421 --> 0:40:18.261 don't think I am now. So I'm going to drag 0:40:18.261 --> 0:40:21.981 this over. Look at this. This is my rules for AI. 0:40:21.982 --> 0:40:26.192 This tells it exactly how to build things for me 0:40:26.511 --> 0:40:28.792 and how to interact with me, and how to modify 0:40:28.792 --> 0:40:31.311 my code when I change code. I tell it not 0:40:31.312 --> 0:40:34.111 to do certain things to it. I tell it all 0:40:34.111 --> 0:40:38.672 my preferences. I tell it only use UV to do 0:40:38.671 --> 0:40:43.031 dependency management, and this is within cursor, where you can 0:40:43.031 --> 0:40:45.792 essentially talk to your agent and tell it how to 0:40:45.832 --> 0:40:48.152 work with you. All right. Hopefully I didn't dox myself 0:40:48.151 --> 0:40:51.312 with anything in there. Hopefully the team will clean it 0:40:51.312 --> 0:40:56.352 up if I did. Jetson. Um, okay. Yeah. Speaking of Nvidia. 0:40:56.392 --> 0:41:00.631 Nvidia just released a $249 AI computer. It's half the 0:41:00.631 --> 0:41:04.271 price of the previous model aimed at hobbyists. I'm getting 0:41:04.272 --> 0:41:08.311 one of these, I think. Raspberry Pi, but, like, way 0:41:08.312 --> 0:41:13.071 better and cooler. And Nvidia and GPU and AI based. 0:41:13.232 --> 0:41:15.392 So I'm getting one and I want one of these too, 0:41:15.392 --> 0:41:16.951 but I'm not sure if I'm going to get it. 0:41:17.151 --> 0:41:20.751 Project digits you you can develop and run inference on 0:41:20.752 --> 0:41:25.521 models using their own desktop system. Hours guide to mechanical Keyboards. 0:41:25.761 --> 0:41:34.361 I have the old 75, which I highly recommend, and Lobn. 0:41:34.401 --> 0:41:36.642 Nice little tool that shows you which stories are being 0:41:36.642 --> 0:41:40.681 discussed on both Lobsters and Hacker News. Recommendation of the week. 0:41:41.602 --> 0:41:44.001 When dealt chaos, find a way to benefit from it. 0:41:44.042 --> 0:41:49.042 2025 might be completely insane, but like Littlefinger said, chaos 0:41:49.082 --> 0:41:51.922 is a ladder. He actually died in the end, but 0:41:51.921 --> 0:41:54.801 I think it's still a good lesson. Seriously though, it's 0:41:54.921 --> 0:42:00.562 a tremendous opportunity when change is happening. The more chaos, 0:42:00.562 --> 0:42:03.161 the more opportunity. And like I was saying in the 0:42:03.161 --> 0:42:06.961 very beginning, the more chaos, the more I think the 0:42:07.002 --> 0:42:10.761 bias moves towards people who take action. There is something 0:42:10.761 --> 0:42:13.721 to be said for like being cautious and just like 0:42:13.761 --> 0:42:17.122 going into a bunker and not doing anything. I think 0:42:17.122 --> 0:42:20.321 that is sometimes a way to go. So you have 0:42:20.321 --> 0:42:23.362 to use your judgment here. But I would say doing 0:42:23.531 --> 0:42:27.251 that too much while there's chaos happening. It means you're 0:42:27.252 --> 0:42:32.852 not evaluating the situation and looking for leverage opportunities. Okay, 0:42:32.852 --> 0:42:36.292 when there's chaos happening, it means there are new needs 0:42:36.372 --> 0:42:41.611 rising up, unfulfilled needs from large user bases, and that 0:42:41.611 --> 0:42:45.091 is an opportunity for you to jump in, boom, build 0:42:45.091 --> 0:42:50.172 a service, build an application, launch it, put stripe on it, 0:42:50.372 --> 0:42:52.931 and boom, you just made a ton of money off 0:42:52.931 --> 0:42:56.892 of that and and helped a bunch of people. And 0:42:56.892 --> 0:43:00.211 you made it from nothing. You made it yourself from 0:43:00.212 --> 0:43:07.612 nothing with I probably, but, um, I would say use 0:43:07.611 --> 0:43:12.612 the positive framing for the chaos that is coming. Um, 0:43:12.611 --> 0:43:16.292 I'm using this to help myself. I mean, I'm just 0:43:16.292 --> 0:43:19.812 as sad about the current state of the events as 0:43:19.812 --> 0:43:26.061 anyone else. South Korea is in chaos. Hoo hoo! Guest 0:43:26.062 --> 0:43:29.422 3 to 5 years ago, South Korea would be in chaos. 0:43:29.582 --> 0:43:33.142 That makes no sense to me. Like, things are absolutely crazy. 0:43:33.982 --> 0:43:37.741 But I'm asking you to use a stoic mindset to 0:43:37.781 --> 0:43:41.741 basically say, okay, cool. Lots of chaos. Awesome. That's time 0:43:41.741 --> 0:43:43.982 for me to read. That's time for me to read 0:43:43.982 --> 0:43:48.021 even more and join book clubs and focus on my 0:43:48.022 --> 0:43:50.102 own projects. Oh, and by the way, there's going to 0:43:50.102 --> 0:43:54.101 be lots of business opportunities. Cool. I'm finding the positive, 0:43:54.861 --> 0:43:58.342 if I can, as much as I can, as often 0:43:58.341 --> 0:44:01.062 as I can. And this is a technique for doing that. 0:44:01.381 --> 0:44:04.901 And the aphorism of the week when tomorrow is uncertain, 0:44:04.982 --> 0:44:07.781 it's often dangerous to be exactly the same person you 0:44:07.821 --> 0:44:13.422 were yesterday. Chaos makes it risky to not take risks. 0:44:13.421 --> 0:44:16.542 When tomorrow is uncertain, it's often dangerous to be exactly 0:44:16.542 --> 0:44:20.261 the same person you were yesterday. Chaos makes it risky 0:44:20.582 --> 0:44:21.901 to not take risks.