1 00:00:17,261 --> 00:00:19,822 S1: All right. Welcome to unsupervised Learning. This is Daniel Miessler. 2 00:00:19,982 --> 00:00:24,142 S1: And this is the first podcast for the new year 2025. 3 00:00:24,302 --> 00:00:27,542 S1: And I wanted to just do a quick overview of 4 00:00:27,622 --> 00:00:31,182 S1: what exactly it is that we do here. So I 5 00:00:31,222 --> 00:00:36,182 S1: slightly upgraded or modified the tagline for the show as 6 00:00:36,221 --> 00:00:41,382 S1: being a newsletter and podcast around trends and ideas in cybersecurity, 7 00:00:41,422 --> 00:00:44,821 S1: national security, AI, technology and society, and how best to 8 00:00:44,861 --> 00:00:48,662 S1: upgrade ourselves to be ready for what's coming. And I 9 00:00:48,662 --> 00:00:52,142 S1: think that captures this well because obviously I'm talking about security. 10 00:00:52,141 --> 00:00:54,862 S1: Obviously I'm talking about AI, but really what I'm talking 11 00:00:54,862 --> 00:00:58,702 S1: about is trends in those things and ways to sort 12 00:00:58,702 --> 00:01:01,902 S1: of improve ourselves. Right? This is about self-improvement, but it's 13 00:01:01,902 --> 00:01:06,301 S1: about self-improvement within the context of what is going on 14 00:01:06,301 --> 00:01:10,502 S1: in the world. And obviously it's future stuff. Right? So 15 00:01:10,502 --> 00:01:13,301 S1: you can't predict this perfectly. I'm not claiming I can 16 00:01:13,301 --> 00:01:17,712 S1: predict anything like this perfectly. Nobody knows what's going on, 17 00:01:17,712 --> 00:01:20,791 S1: and you should be afraid of anybody, or you should 18 00:01:20,792 --> 00:01:24,392 S1: avoid anybody who thinks they have a perfect bead on anything. 19 00:01:24,712 --> 00:01:28,672 S1: Nobody knows. Like too many variables. So basically what we 20 00:01:28,672 --> 00:01:30,911 S1: try to do here is figure out trends. Figure out 21 00:01:30,912 --> 00:01:34,912 S1: what's interesting and then figure out how to upgrade ourselves. 22 00:01:34,912 --> 00:01:38,312 S1: How to improve ourselves. To be in the best possible 23 00:01:38,312 --> 00:01:43,792 S1: position to basically thrive as a human going forward. So 24 00:01:43,792 --> 00:01:45,831 S1: one of the things I want to talk about is, like, 25 00:01:45,952 --> 00:01:49,632 S1: I always leave the newsletter with security stuff and my 26 00:01:49,712 --> 00:01:54,352 S1: focus on security. Cyber security, really all types of security, 27 00:01:54,352 --> 00:01:59,072 S1: but especially cyber, is to essentially figure out what the 28 00:01:59,072 --> 00:02:02,512 S1: new and interesting things are, not necessarily a dump of 29 00:02:02,512 --> 00:02:06,912 S1: every single breach that happened or every single vulnerability that happened. 30 00:02:06,952 --> 00:02:09,072 S1: I used to do a lot more coverage of that, 31 00:02:09,072 --> 00:02:13,311 S1: but I just everybody's being hacked, right? Everybody's being hacked, 32 00:02:13,311 --> 00:02:17,282 S1: and everybody has vulns in pretty much everything what I 33 00:02:17,322 --> 00:02:19,522 S1: care about are like. First of all, what are the 34 00:02:19,522 --> 00:02:23,162 S1: criticals like? If there's if there's something really crazy happening 35 00:02:23,162 --> 00:02:26,642 S1: right now, like you, you really need to check your gear, 36 00:02:27,441 --> 00:02:31,121 S1: get it offline, put a firewall rule in place, put 37 00:02:31,121 --> 00:02:34,481 S1: a WAF in place, change a config, something like that, 38 00:02:34,482 --> 00:02:38,242 S1: like a log forge type situation, those types of situations. 39 00:02:38,281 --> 00:02:44,202 S1: I would say I'm still going to largely still cover. Right. 40 00:02:44,202 --> 00:02:47,561 S1: Because because I think those are topical. They're trend based. 41 00:02:47,881 --> 00:02:52,322 S1: It's important to know and I would like to still 42 00:02:52,321 --> 00:02:54,442 S1: be that person who lets you know about that thing. 43 00:02:54,922 --> 00:02:58,362 S1: But the other 700 things that happened or the other 44 00:02:58,362 --> 00:03:01,522 S1: 50 things that happened, or the other 25 things that happened, 45 00:03:01,642 --> 00:03:04,481 S1: you're going to find out about it another way. You're 46 00:03:04,482 --> 00:03:06,642 S1: going to get an email at work, like there are 47 00:03:06,642 --> 00:03:08,521 S1: other ways to find it out. And I just feel 48 00:03:08,522 --> 00:03:14,042 S1: like it's kind of noise to just constantly report about 49 00:03:14,042 --> 00:03:18,332 S1: things being broken and people being hacked and breaches happening 50 00:03:18,332 --> 00:03:21,252 S1: and leaks happening. But what I want to do is 51 00:03:21,251 --> 00:03:24,492 S1: surface like the top ones from those and what I 52 00:03:24,492 --> 00:03:28,092 S1: especially want to surface. And my favorite thing and really 53 00:03:28,091 --> 00:03:30,931 S1: the focus of the security section and really all the 54 00:03:30,931 --> 00:03:35,332 S1: sections here is what is a changing trend. How are 55 00:03:35,372 --> 00:03:40,732 S1: attackers or defenders doing things differently? What is a new technique? Right. 56 00:03:40,812 --> 00:03:43,412 S1: That's really the focus here is like what is a 57 00:03:43,412 --> 00:03:46,012 S1: new technique and how do we change as a result 58 00:03:46,012 --> 00:03:51,812 S1: of that. So not necessarily every single bullet story, but 59 00:03:51,812 --> 00:03:55,692 S1: changes that are interesting that we should potentially look out for. 60 00:03:55,692 --> 00:04:00,412 S1: So that's that's kind of the vibe for the year. Um, 61 00:04:00,571 --> 00:04:03,652 S1: not really the year just going forward. And I feel 62 00:04:03,652 --> 00:04:05,692 S1: like I've been doing this already, but I just wanted 63 00:04:05,692 --> 00:04:10,052 S1: to tighten that up with, uh, capturing that in the tagline. So, uh, 64 00:04:10,052 --> 00:04:13,622 S1: relaunch my website. Let me open a tab here. So 65 00:04:13,702 --> 00:04:17,062 S1: I also switched to AAC which is pretty interesting. So 66 00:04:17,062 --> 00:04:19,942 S1: this is the new website. And this is uh, these 67 00:04:19,942 --> 00:04:22,142 S1: are my tabs over here on the left. So AAC 68 00:04:22,182 --> 00:04:25,422 S1: is a Chrome based browser and it does tabs on 69 00:04:25,422 --> 00:04:28,462 S1: the left instead of at the top. But, uh, this 70 00:04:28,462 --> 00:04:31,702 S1: is the new website. This is, uh, something I've been 71 00:04:31,702 --> 00:04:33,942 S1: working on for a very long time. It might look 72 00:04:33,942 --> 00:04:36,622 S1: very similar to previous versions of the website. It kind 73 00:04:36,662 --> 00:04:39,742 S1: of does. But what I did was break the website 74 00:04:39,742 --> 00:04:42,662 S1: out separate from the newsletter. So the newsletter, instead of 75 00:04:42,662 --> 00:04:51,222 S1: being Daniel Miessler, whatever it's newsletter.com/whatever. So kind of still 76 00:04:51,222 --> 00:04:53,182 S1: the same. And you could also get to there by 77 00:04:53,222 --> 00:04:56,582 S1: going to uh, unsupervised learning. You can find it lots 78 00:04:56,582 --> 00:04:58,982 S1: of different ways, but bottom line is the newsletter is 79 00:04:58,982 --> 00:05:02,462 S1: now a sub domain under Daniel Comm, and the main 80 00:05:02,462 --> 00:05:06,022 S1: site is just a core site. So I'm working on 81 00:05:06,022 --> 00:05:09,382 S1: getting my ideas up here. I got the blog already 82 00:05:09,502 --> 00:05:12,272 S1: somewhat working, got a new post here which I think 83 00:05:12,272 --> 00:05:16,472 S1: I talk about in the newsletter and all my study articles. 84 00:05:16,472 --> 00:05:19,712 S1: These are all my articles going back. And these are 85 00:05:19,712 --> 00:05:23,552 S1: essentially this is all my content going back to like 1996. 86 00:05:23,992 --> 00:05:27,952 S1: So um, got predictions I'm going to put up here soon. 87 00:05:27,952 --> 00:05:33,432 S1: But if you're a typography geek, hopefully you really love this. Um, 88 00:05:33,472 --> 00:05:35,752 S1: I want to give a shout out to Matthew Butterick, 89 00:05:36,352 --> 00:05:38,912 S1: who I got a lot of the site design from. 90 00:05:38,912 --> 00:05:42,791 S1: I purchased his his paid fonts like six times now, 91 00:05:42,832 --> 00:05:45,912 S1: I think like 4 or 5, six times, something like that. 92 00:05:46,392 --> 00:05:50,112 S1: And I purchased them again, uh, in this update. So 93 00:05:50,112 --> 00:05:53,152 S1: these are all custom fonts. Like this is not stuff 94 00:05:53,152 --> 00:05:57,232 S1: you can get anywhere else. And, uh, yeah, really, really 95 00:05:57,232 --> 00:06:00,632 S1: cool stuff. Uh, so I'm excited about that. Um, next thing, 96 00:06:01,072 --> 00:06:05,752 S1: let's see here. Yeah. So I've just spent like 60 hours. 97 00:06:05,792 --> 00:06:09,912 S1: It's probably more like 80 hours, honestly, at this point, 98 00:06:10,072 --> 00:06:17,032 S1: Optimizing my workflows. Tooling. Operating system. Notes. Techniques. Procedures. Calendar. 99 00:06:17,752 --> 00:06:22,712 S1: Everything that I do to, like, stay aware. Um. How 100 00:06:22,712 --> 00:06:26,672 S1: I take notes. My operating system. My keyboard shortcuts. My 101 00:06:26,672 --> 00:06:32,432 S1: text editor. Everything has been optimized. I've basically spent, I 102 00:06:32,432 --> 00:06:37,592 S1: don't know how many other separate hours watching video on Neovim, 103 00:06:37,632 --> 00:06:42,672 S1: on raycast, and and basically tons of different tools that 104 00:06:42,672 --> 00:06:46,312 S1: I use to be able to optimize things. So just 105 00:06:46,312 --> 00:06:48,472 S1: a slight teaser on this if you see in my 106 00:06:48,472 --> 00:06:52,392 S1: upper right hand bar here. So this is Riverside, which 107 00:06:52,392 --> 00:06:55,032 S1: we're recording in right now. This is a little active thing, 108 00:06:55,232 --> 00:06:59,192 S1: but I've got CPU, GPU here. Um, I've got my network, 109 00:06:59,792 --> 00:07:03,512 S1: but um, look at this one. If I pull this down, look, 110 00:07:03,512 --> 00:07:07,312 S1: you can see all my different things that I have 111 00:07:07,352 --> 00:07:11,482 S1: going on today. I could see. Um, this is heads down. 112 00:07:11,482 --> 00:07:13,922 S1: Work that I'm doing right now. Should actually say recording 113 00:07:13,922 --> 00:07:18,002 S1: a podcast, but whatever. Um, I could see my month here. 114 00:07:18,202 --> 00:07:20,562 S1: This is how many people are currently on my website. Uh, 115 00:07:20,562 --> 00:07:24,362 S1: so this is like a live fathom analytics thing. Got 116 00:07:24,362 --> 00:07:28,442 S1: my current temperature. Got my notes here. Um, so this 117 00:07:28,442 --> 00:07:32,482 S1: is called hidden bar. And this really tightens up my 118 00:07:32,562 --> 00:07:35,922 S1: menu bar. Uh, because there's a whole lot of other stuff. 119 00:07:35,922 --> 00:07:38,042 S1: If I click here, this is all the stuff it 120 00:07:38,082 --> 00:07:40,122 S1: wanted to present to me. Right. So I've got it 121 00:07:40,122 --> 00:07:42,642 S1: locked down to just this. And that's just one of 122 00:07:42,642 --> 00:07:45,082 S1: the things that I'm working on. In fact, I'm doing 123 00:07:45,082 --> 00:07:50,882 S1: a member, uh, episode, not an episode. A mid-month meetup 124 00:07:51,402 --> 00:07:55,642 S1: is actually Thursdays, uh, the second Thursday of the month, 125 00:07:55,642 --> 00:07:59,842 S1: which I think is today. And we get together. Oh, actually, 126 00:07:59,842 --> 00:08:03,442 S1: I mentioned right here. So, um, I am covering everything 127 00:08:03,442 --> 00:08:06,362 S1: that I did. I've got this massive document over here, 128 00:08:07,162 --> 00:08:10,292 S1: and I'm covering everything that I've done for these optimizations, 129 00:08:10,292 --> 00:08:12,812 S1: and I'm just going one after another in that thing. 130 00:08:13,252 --> 00:08:16,692 S1: And that's going to be released as a video for members. 131 00:08:16,812 --> 00:08:19,732 S1: So yeah, looking forward to doing that later on today. 132 00:08:19,892 --> 00:08:22,372 S1: And I might put that out or put it partially 133 00:08:22,372 --> 00:08:24,212 S1: out on YouTube. I'm not sure what I'm going to 134 00:08:24,212 --> 00:08:27,452 S1: do with that, but members are definitely getting it for free. Uh, 135 00:08:27,452 --> 00:08:31,692 S1: let's see here. More focus, more discipline. Primary projects for 136 00:08:31,692 --> 00:08:35,572 S1: 2025 launching same page which is commercial offering and then 137 00:08:35,612 --> 00:08:39,692 S1: human 3.0, which is more of a community humanity benefit 138 00:08:39,732 --> 00:08:44,011 S1: type thing, as well as working on my, uh, technology stack, 139 00:08:44,532 --> 00:08:47,011 S1: building out Damon, doing all the stuff that I've been 140 00:08:47,011 --> 00:08:53,252 S1: talking about in my other posts. Substrate. Telos. Um, all 141 00:08:53,252 --> 00:08:56,372 S1: that different stuff is basically what I'm building out as 142 00:08:56,372 --> 00:08:59,092 S1: tech stacks. So they're actually going to live on my domain. 143 00:08:59,092 --> 00:09:03,332 S1: So damon.com is actually going to be broadcasting a live 144 00:09:03,332 --> 00:09:09,182 S1: API of what I'm finding It's interesting. My favorite preference is, um, 145 00:09:09,182 --> 00:09:12,102 S1: my favorite books. What am I currently reading? This is 146 00:09:12,102 --> 00:09:16,422 S1: something I did in the early 2000 with a tool 147 00:09:16,422 --> 00:09:19,982 S1: called Friendfeed, and I'm now going to be doing with 148 00:09:19,982 --> 00:09:26,382 S1: new technology, with API technology, with AI. Um, and yeah, 149 00:09:26,382 --> 00:09:29,422 S1: it's just it's going to be absolutely insane. And it's 150 00:09:29,422 --> 00:09:32,022 S1: all part of the same thing, which is H3, which 151 00:09:32,022 --> 00:09:36,102 S1: is human 3.0. Um, now I'm also launching, which I've 152 00:09:36,142 --> 00:09:37,862 S1: talked about before in a bunch of people have pinged 153 00:09:37,862 --> 00:09:40,902 S1: me about, I'm launching a platform that you can actually 154 00:09:40,942 --> 00:09:44,062 S1: sign up for, and it's got a membership, uh, which 155 00:09:44,062 --> 00:09:46,062 S1: will be a whole lot cheaper for people who are 156 00:09:46,062 --> 00:09:49,422 S1: already part of, uh, UL. But but anyway, there's a 157 00:09:49,422 --> 00:09:53,182 S1: paid offering that, like, curates the content that you get 158 00:09:53,182 --> 00:09:56,902 S1: to move through H3. There's a maturity model for H3. 159 00:09:56,902 --> 00:09:58,662 S1: It's going to show you exactly where you are. It's 160 00:09:58,662 --> 00:10:01,582 S1: going to show you where you need to go. Um, 161 00:10:01,582 --> 00:10:04,422 S1: and I'm going to keep releasing content into there. And 162 00:10:04,422 --> 00:10:08,992 S1: that's basically like a it's a managed platform for upgrading 163 00:10:08,992 --> 00:10:12,592 S1: yourself to human 3.0. Okay. But I want to make 164 00:10:12,592 --> 00:10:16,032 S1: very clear most of the content that's going to be 165 00:10:16,032 --> 00:10:19,872 S1: in there. It's all on GitHub, right? The whole point 166 00:10:19,872 --> 00:10:24,592 S1: of human 3.0 is to upgrade everyone, give everyone these tools. Right. 167 00:10:24,952 --> 00:10:27,552 S1: So the stuff that I'm putting in the platform, that's 168 00:10:27,552 --> 00:10:30,632 S1: just going to look prettier, it's going to have the 169 00:10:30,632 --> 00:10:33,792 S1: maturity model. It's going to have like a lots of 170 00:10:33,792 --> 00:10:37,232 S1: extra things like ratings and grades and like it's going 171 00:10:37,232 --> 00:10:40,472 S1: to move you through like a curriculum, things like that. 172 00:10:40,472 --> 00:10:44,032 S1: But the content itself I'm going to be talking about 173 00:10:44,032 --> 00:10:47,672 S1: on YouTube for free, I'm going to be releasing on 174 00:10:47,672 --> 00:10:49,672 S1: the blog for free. I'm going to be putting in 175 00:10:49,672 --> 00:10:52,512 S1: social media for free, like all, and it's going to 176 00:10:52,512 --> 00:10:54,752 S1: be in GitHub for free, because I want this to 177 00:10:54,752 --> 00:10:56,792 S1: apply to everyone. I'm not trying to get everyone on 178 00:10:56,792 --> 00:10:59,912 S1: some platform, like the whole thing is not a trick. 179 00:10:59,912 --> 00:11:02,552 S1: To get people into a platform, is what I'm saying, right? 180 00:11:02,672 --> 00:11:04,962 S1: I want to make money. I'm trying to find a 181 00:11:04,962 --> 00:11:07,402 S1: way to make some kind of money off of this thing, 182 00:11:08,242 --> 00:11:13,122 S1: but it is like the 19th goal of this project. 183 00:11:13,202 --> 00:11:17,082 S1: The goal of the project is to get people freaking out. 184 00:11:17,922 --> 00:11:20,762 S1: Not not a panic, not FUD, but I want them 185 00:11:20,762 --> 00:11:24,002 S1: to be like, oh crap, this thing is coming. I 186 00:11:24,002 --> 00:11:27,922 S1: need to get ready. What do I do right now? 187 00:11:28,002 --> 00:11:30,202 S1: You can watch the videos, you can go to GitHub. 188 00:11:30,282 --> 00:11:32,122 S1: You can just do those things and you get to 189 00:11:32,162 --> 00:11:34,962 S1: the same place that you get by using the paid platform. 190 00:11:34,962 --> 00:11:38,562 S1: You do not need to use my paid platform or 191 00:11:38,562 --> 00:11:41,242 S1: any other paid platform. You could just follow the stuff 192 00:11:41,242 --> 00:11:44,042 S1: that I'm talking about and do it. And you're going 193 00:11:44,082 --> 00:11:47,202 S1: to be, you know, pretty much there. Um, that being said, 194 00:11:47,202 --> 00:11:51,002 S1: people are still saying, look, tell me exactly what to do. 195 00:11:51,002 --> 00:11:52,842 S1: Where do I sign up? What do I do? So 196 00:11:52,842 --> 00:11:55,202 S1: that that's the reason I'm making the paid offering, but 197 00:11:55,202 --> 00:11:57,761 S1: it's all the same stuff. That's the whole point here. 198 00:11:57,882 --> 00:12:00,562 S1: All right, got some items here. Uh, what I expect 199 00:12:00,562 --> 00:12:04,332 S1: for 2025, a lot of chaos, which comes with opportunity, 200 00:12:04,852 --> 00:12:08,092 S1: a bias towards action. So I think people who see 201 00:12:08,132 --> 00:12:11,452 S1: chaos as an opportunity to just move and build and create, 202 00:12:11,532 --> 00:12:14,332 S1: they're going to have a massive advantage in 25. I 203 00:12:14,372 --> 00:12:19,052 S1: companies move towards agents. Everybody's saying that, uh, many AI 204 00:12:19,092 --> 00:12:21,772 S1: companies start falling. So you're going to see the crash 205 00:12:21,772 --> 00:12:25,932 S1: and the rise, which I talked about last year. Um, oh, 206 00:12:25,972 --> 00:12:27,932 S1: is our AI companies going to crash or are they 207 00:12:27,972 --> 00:12:30,572 S1: going to, like, thrive? The answer is both. The answer 208 00:12:30,572 --> 00:12:33,892 S1: is yes. Both are going to happen a whole lot. 209 00:12:33,932 --> 00:12:37,892 S1: Millions and millions of dollars of AI companies are just 210 00:12:37,892 --> 00:12:40,732 S1: going to go out of business because they were just 211 00:12:40,732 --> 00:12:43,372 S1: like it was a gimmick, or they hadn't thought of 212 00:12:43,372 --> 00:12:47,892 S1: a long strategy or they got eaten up by the platforms. Right. 213 00:12:47,892 --> 00:12:49,932 S1: So a whole bunch of that's going to go down. 214 00:12:50,092 --> 00:12:53,412 S1: But the really smart AI companies and the platforms and 215 00:12:53,412 --> 00:12:57,131 S1: the big tech who's actually using the stuff, they're going 216 00:12:57,132 --> 00:12:59,652 S1: to go up that that's my guess. Yeah. Big tech 217 00:12:59,652 --> 00:13:03,222 S1: and truly innovative AI companies start to hockey stick. Developers 218 00:13:03,222 --> 00:13:08,822 S1: switch from minor assistance to largely AI based dev. That's 219 00:13:08,822 --> 00:13:12,462 S1: a huge one. Becomes more obvious that AI will replace 220 00:13:12,462 --> 00:13:17,662 S1: lots of knowledge work. AI discourse switches from AC to 221 00:13:17,662 --> 00:13:21,942 S1: human work replacement. So instead of us talking about oh, 222 00:13:21,982 --> 00:13:23,942 S1: how good is AI going to be or whatever, I 223 00:13:23,942 --> 00:13:26,462 S1: think we're going to start talking about, Holy crap, this 224 00:13:26,462 --> 00:13:30,542 S1: thing is taking jobs. Now Salesforce. Benioff he just said 225 00:13:30,542 --> 00:13:35,302 S1: he's not hiring any more developers. Going forward, I would 226 00:13:35,302 --> 00:13:38,302 S1: say that would be a stronger signal if somebody like 227 00:13:38,462 --> 00:13:42,582 S1: Google said that or if somebody's like, I don't know, 228 00:13:43,582 --> 00:13:48,222 S1: said that somebody normal who's not building AI products, right. 229 00:13:48,262 --> 00:13:52,062 S1: It's it's a little bit less believable if they're also 230 00:13:52,062 --> 00:13:55,902 S1: building a product that replaces humans. So essentially he's talking 231 00:13:55,902 --> 00:13:59,022 S1: his own book. That being said, I think there is 232 00:13:59,022 --> 00:14:03,391 S1: something real and worth listening to in what he said. Like, 233 00:14:03,992 --> 00:14:07,072 S1: I mean, I don't think he's lying and he's saying 234 00:14:07,072 --> 00:14:10,472 S1: his productivity from AI is way up, but you got 235 00:14:10,512 --> 00:14:12,472 S1: to take it with a little bit of a grain 236 00:14:12,512 --> 00:14:15,552 S1: of salt. Given the fact that he's selling a product 237 00:14:15,552 --> 00:14:18,992 S1: that replaces workers, right? So he's basically saying, my product 238 00:14:18,992 --> 00:14:21,592 S1: is so good that I'm using it and I don't 239 00:14:21,592 --> 00:14:24,592 S1: have to hire developers. So it's a little bit of marketing. Um, 240 00:14:24,592 --> 00:14:27,592 S1: all right. Next one. More people start asking what humans 241 00:14:27,592 --> 00:14:30,072 S1: are supposed to do post work. Right. And that's what 242 00:14:30,072 --> 00:14:34,112 S1: I've been getting in front of for the last few years. Okay. Security. U.S. 243 00:14:34,112 --> 00:14:39,952 S1: Army soldier was arrested for allegedly selling AT&T and Verizon 244 00:14:39,952 --> 00:14:45,872 S1: customer data as the cyber Phantom. Yeah. 20 year old 245 00:14:45,872 --> 00:14:52,072 S1: communications specialist in the Army. Allegedly stolen leaked sensitive call records. Okay. Uh, 246 00:14:52,072 --> 00:14:56,192 S1: there's a critical release for item two fixes. Um, but 247 00:14:56,192 --> 00:14:58,992 S1: you should not be messing with that. You should be 248 00:14:59,162 --> 00:15:03,082 S1: messing with this. Oh, this is so good. Um, hopefully 249 00:15:03,082 --> 00:15:05,602 S1: it comes up. Ghosty site. Where are you? What are 250 00:15:05,602 --> 00:15:08,842 S1: you doing? Where's the site? There we go. A glitch 251 00:15:08,842 --> 00:15:14,482 S1: in the matrix. All right, this is the website. So, documentation. Um, 252 00:15:14,482 --> 00:15:19,242 S1: you can get it from source on GitHub. Ghosty is 253 00:15:19,442 --> 00:15:24,682 S1: the best shell. I'm telling you, it is extraordinary. Um, yeah. 254 00:15:24,722 --> 00:15:26,322 S1: Let me, uh, let me just show you what it 255 00:15:26,322 --> 00:15:28,522 S1: looks like. Well, it looks like a shell. It looks 256 00:15:28,522 --> 00:15:31,602 S1: very similar to my kiddie setup. It looks very similar 257 00:15:31,602 --> 00:15:33,922 S1: to my other stuff. Let me just tell you, it's 258 00:15:33,922 --> 00:15:37,882 S1: from this guy named Mitchell Hashimoto. And, uh, this guy 259 00:15:37,882 --> 00:15:44,362 S1: who's a co-founder of HashiCorp, and he is extraordinarily bright, uh, 260 00:15:44,362 --> 00:15:48,322 S1: forward thinking. And he basically figured out how to get 261 00:15:48,322 --> 00:15:51,482 S1: all three things. Um, I forget all the three things. 262 00:15:51,482 --> 00:15:56,162 S1: It's like speed, uh, compliance and, like, usability or something 263 00:15:56,162 --> 00:16:00,212 S1: like that, but basically all the different um, yeah. Compliances 264 00:16:00,212 --> 00:16:03,332 S1: like standards following essentially. So what do you figure out 265 00:16:03,332 --> 00:16:06,652 S1: how to do is he's building this thing to be 266 00:16:06,652 --> 00:16:10,892 S1: the most standards compliant, the most fast and the most 267 00:16:10,892 --> 00:16:15,012 S1: fun to use and the most easy to configure. And, uh, 268 00:16:15,012 --> 00:16:18,292 S1: so if I do gconf, this is what, uh, yeah. 269 00:16:18,292 --> 00:16:21,532 S1: I'll just expand this out. Oh, by the way, maximize. Oh, 270 00:16:21,572 --> 00:16:24,692 S1: look at that. All right. Maximize. Boom boom boom boom. 271 00:16:25,332 --> 00:16:27,892 S1: So this this is what the config looks like. It's 272 00:16:27,932 --> 00:16:32,292 S1: kind of similar to kiddie config, but, um I've got 273 00:16:32,292 --> 00:16:36,252 S1: my Tokyo night theme going here. Uh, I've got a 274 00:16:36,252 --> 00:16:40,772 S1: whole bunch of work I put into configuring this after watching, like, 275 00:16:41,292 --> 00:16:45,092 S1: 25 videos from people who've done their various things. Uh, 276 00:16:45,092 --> 00:16:50,172 S1: shout out to link Arzu on YouTube. Okay. He was 277 00:16:50,172 --> 00:16:55,812 S1: a big influence on my configs. Uh, one of the 278 00:16:55,892 --> 00:16:58,972 S1: first videos I looked at for go see config. He 279 00:16:58,972 --> 00:17:01,372 S1: was one of the people who was beta testing it earlier. 280 00:17:01,892 --> 00:17:05,171 S1: And in general he's just been doing some pretty cool stuff, 281 00:17:05,172 --> 00:17:07,852 S1: so I would definitely recommend checking him out. In fact, 282 00:17:07,851 --> 00:17:11,332 S1: I'm going to pull him up right now. Link carzou. 283 00:17:11,372 --> 00:17:16,052 S1: I think that's how you pronounce it. YouTube. Oh, look 284 00:17:16,052 --> 00:17:19,892 S1: at this, I switched. I did something crazy. I switched 285 00:17:19,892 --> 00:17:24,332 S1: my main browser, uh, search engine. In fact, my main 286 00:17:24,332 --> 00:17:30,132 S1: search engine. Overall to perplexity. I'm trying it. I know 287 00:17:30,132 --> 00:17:32,571 S1: Google is probably going to come out with perplexity killing 288 00:17:32,572 --> 00:17:35,212 S1: features soon, and I might switch back at that point, 289 00:17:35,332 --> 00:17:38,572 S1: but I'm trying to use Link Perplexity as my main 290 00:17:38,572 --> 00:17:41,811 S1: browser search engine, and it's going pretty well. So this 291 00:17:41,812 --> 00:17:46,372 S1: is the thing. Link carzou. That's how I'm saying it. He's, uh, Latin, 292 00:17:46,372 --> 00:17:50,132 S1: so I don't know. I'm not sure how he says it, 293 00:17:50,132 --> 00:17:53,012 S1: but anyway, uh, this guy has a bunch of cool 294 00:17:53,012 --> 00:17:58,182 S1: videos about basically terminal configs. Um, kind of like super 295 00:17:58,182 --> 00:18:02,422 S1: nerdy stuff. And I like it. There are good videos, 296 00:18:02,542 --> 00:18:05,302 S1: and also it's very geeky and in the weeds. And 297 00:18:05,302 --> 00:18:07,782 S1: this is why I've spent probably 60 to 80 hours 298 00:18:07,782 --> 00:18:11,302 S1: messing around with my terminal config and raycasts and stuff 299 00:18:11,302 --> 00:18:15,142 S1: like that. Not sure if he uses raycast, but anyway, uh, 300 00:18:15,142 --> 00:18:18,542 S1: worth looking at. And then command S to get rid 301 00:18:18,582 --> 00:18:21,662 S1: of the sidebar. All right. Where are we at? Um, yeah. 302 00:18:21,702 --> 00:18:24,782 S1: Use ghost instead of Iterm. Uh, that's where we're at. Uh, 303 00:18:24,782 --> 00:18:29,382 S1: basically iterm major problem. I went from Iterm2 to alacrity 304 00:18:29,742 --> 00:18:37,662 S1: to kitty, and then to ghosty. I think that was my, uh, movement. 305 00:18:37,782 --> 00:18:43,782 S1: So it was terminal iterm alacrity, Kitty. Ghosty. And I 306 00:18:43,782 --> 00:18:45,542 S1: think I'm going to be on ghosty for a very 307 00:18:45,542 --> 00:18:49,262 S1: long time. Uh, assuming he maintains that project, which that's 308 00:18:49,262 --> 00:18:51,502 S1: why I think I'm likely to stay with them, is 309 00:18:51,502 --> 00:18:54,672 S1: because it is likely to maintain it for a very 310 00:18:54,672 --> 00:18:57,192 S1: long time. He's just putting that sort of future work 311 00:18:57,192 --> 00:19:00,872 S1: into it. China's turned one of its most prominent pro-democracy 312 00:19:00,872 --> 00:19:05,071 S1: dissidents into a spy by threatening his sick parents. Okay, 313 00:19:05,112 --> 00:19:08,111 S1: so this calls attention to China's use of emotional pressure 314 00:19:08,112 --> 00:19:13,072 S1: and family ties to coerce members of its diaspora into 315 00:19:13,112 --> 00:19:17,872 S1: becoming intelligence assets. Hard to say how big this problem is, 316 00:19:17,872 --> 00:19:21,392 S1: but I'm definitely worried about it. They could basically activate 317 00:19:21,392 --> 00:19:26,152 S1: millions of people in their diaspora by leveraging nationalism, political pressure, 318 00:19:26,432 --> 00:19:32,552 S1: threats to family or whatever. Right. And it doesn't mean like, oh, 319 00:19:32,592 --> 00:19:35,472 S1: anybody who's Chinese works in a tech company. Like you 320 00:19:35,472 --> 00:19:37,912 S1: need to worry about them because they're a spy. That's 321 00:19:37,912 --> 00:19:42,152 S1: not the case, right? Uh, vast majority of anybody in 322 00:19:42,152 --> 00:19:46,712 S1: any company who's, you know, from another country, they're just 323 00:19:46,712 --> 00:19:50,192 S1: there to do their thing. Right. They've bought into the US. 324 00:19:50,192 --> 00:19:52,552 S1: They bought into the company. They're doing their thing. The 325 00:19:52,682 --> 00:19:56,242 S1: problem is, China is so controlling and so powerful. They 326 00:19:56,242 --> 00:19:58,962 S1: could just be like, look, you are a Chinese citizen. Like, 327 00:19:58,962 --> 00:20:01,682 S1: I don't care where you live, you are a Chinese citizen. 328 00:20:01,682 --> 00:20:05,402 S1: And by the way, um, I hope your Aunt Nancy 329 00:20:05,402 --> 00:20:07,962 S1: is doing well. Um, yeah, we just paid a visit 330 00:20:07,962 --> 00:20:12,042 S1: to her. It looks like she needs groceries. Um, hope 331 00:20:12,042 --> 00:20:15,922 S1: she doesn't get sick or something. That kind of pressure 332 00:20:15,922 --> 00:20:18,682 S1: coming from China when if you if you know about 333 00:20:18,682 --> 00:20:23,002 S1: Chinese citizens, they are really afraid and really respectful of 334 00:20:23,002 --> 00:20:26,242 S1: their government. They do not talk bad about it. They 335 00:20:26,242 --> 00:20:29,682 S1: do not acknowledge many, many of them do not even 336 00:20:29,682 --> 00:20:34,442 S1: acknowledge Tiananmen Square. I mean, we're talking about extreme pressure, 337 00:20:34,442 --> 00:20:39,922 S1: which has been drilled into them for their entire education, right? 338 00:20:39,962 --> 00:20:43,722 S1: Their entire lives. And that pressure is dangerous, is what 339 00:20:43,722 --> 00:20:46,762 S1: I'm saying. It doesn't mean everyone's going to automatically just 340 00:20:46,762 --> 00:20:48,841 S1: be like, okay, of course I'm going to do what 341 00:20:48,842 --> 00:20:51,412 S1: I'm going to do. But it's something to consider and consider, 342 00:20:51,412 --> 00:20:53,811 S1: and it's something that not enough people are talking about. 343 00:20:54,692 --> 00:20:57,331 S1: The trick is you want to be as a company. 344 00:20:57,332 --> 00:21:00,371 S1: You want to be able to understand this. See it 345 00:21:00,372 --> 00:21:04,252 S1: as a problem. Acknowledge it as a threat, but not 346 00:21:04,252 --> 00:21:07,172 S1: switch into some racist mode where you're like, oh, all 347 00:21:07,172 --> 00:21:12,452 S1: Chinese people are, you know, foreign government agents of, you know, 348 00:21:12,452 --> 00:21:16,612 S1: the CCP. So the question is, how can you maintain 349 00:21:16,612 --> 00:21:23,772 S1: vigilance and maybe have a threat, internal threat, uh, program 350 00:21:23,772 --> 00:21:29,892 S1: without being, uh, basically racist and biased and like, nasty, right? 351 00:21:29,932 --> 00:21:33,292 S1: That that's the trick. And it's really difficult to pull off. 352 00:21:33,492 --> 00:21:36,132 S1: And I think very few companies are doing that. First 353 00:21:36,132 --> 00:21:39,732 S1: of all, most people don't have an insider threat program. 354 00:21:39,732 --> 00:21:42,012 S1: It's hard to run, and it's hard to run without 355 00:21:42,012 --> 00:21:46,492 S1: getting sued. Right. Because it tends to be nasty by 356 00:21:46,492 --> 00:21:49,492 S1: its very nature. If you're doing this and you're not 357 00:21:49,492 --> 00:21:53,502 S1: doing it well and very careful to avoid bias. You 358 00:21:53,502 --> 00:21:55,542 S1: are going to do it improperly and you're going to 359 00:21:55,542 --> 00:21:58,702 S1: get sued. And so a lot of companies are just like, hey, look, 360 00:21:59,222 --> 00:22:01,302 S1: don't look at that stuff, because that's going to get 361 00:22:01,302 --> 00:22:04,622 S1: us in trouble. And the fact that people are taking 362 00:22:04,622 --> 00:22:07,062 S1: a hands off approach to this is going to put 363 00:22:07,062 --> 00:22:09,662 S1: more people at risk. So this is a huge problem. 364 00:22:09,942 --> 00:22:11,422 S1: A lot of people don't want to talk about it. 365 00:22:11,462 --> 00:22:13,342 S1: A lot of people can't even do it even if 366 00:22:13,342 --> 00:22:15,542 S1: they wanted to. And they had the right morals and 367 00:22:15,542 --> 00:22:19,462 S1: the right ethics. It's still technically very difficult. You need 368 00:22:19,462 --> 00:22:23,102 S1: a large. It's difficult to pull off. Right? You need 369 00:22:23,102 --> 00:22:26,822 S1: someone who's with a lot of expertise to run the program. 370 00:22:26,822 --> 00:22:29,222 S1: Then you need the right tech to be able to 371 00:22:29,222 --> 00:22:33,742 S1: do it. So, I mean, Google is doing this obviously, 372 00:22:33,742 --> 00:22:37,302 S1: because they found a whole bunch of, uh, threat actors 373 00:22:37,302 --> 00:22:39,861 S1: this way. Not not just Chinese, but lots of different 374 00:22:39,862 --> 00:22:43,182 S1: threat actors using their insider threat program. So it's very, 375 00:22:43,182 --> 00:22:45,822 S1: very mature. But that's Google. I mean, they they've got 376 00:22:45,822 --> 00:22:49,872 S1: billions of dollars to throw around. Amnesty International says attackers 377 00:22:49,872 --> 00:22:53,272 S1: use a HomeKit vulnerability to deploy Pegasus spyware on Serbian 378 00:22:53,392 --> 00:22:56,632 S1: journalist and activist phones. And holy crap about this one. 379 00:22:56,632 --> 00:23:00,952 S1: Russia is using Ukrainian kids to help them target airstrikes, 380 00:23:01,672 --> 00:23:04,512 S1: so they're basically giving them these quest games that involve 381 00:23:04,552 --> 00:23:07,792 S1: taking photos of military targets as part of a game. 382 00:23:07,952 --> 00:23:10,831 S1: They go and take pictures of it. They get like whatever, 383 00:23:10,832 --> 00:23:15,952 S1: they get points. And then the Russian military uses those 384 00:23:15,952 --> 00:23:21,672 S1: pictures as Intel for where to launch strikes. That's diabolical. 385 00:23:21,712 --> 00:23:24,312 S1: Microsoft says it's going to delete passwords for a billion 386 00:23:24,312 --> 00:23:28,592 S1: users as a password. As password attacks double every year. 387 00:23:28,592 --> 00:23:33,752 S1: They're now blocking 7000 password attacks per second. Treasury Department 388 00:23:33,752 --> 00:23:36,552 S1: got hacked through their Beyond Trust remote support software by 389 00:23:36,552 --> 00:23:42,312 S1: Chinese state actors. Hackers combined two words cool vulnerability and 390 00:23:42,312 --> 00:23:48,722 S1: nuclei lets attackers bypass template signature verification to execute malicious code. 391 00:23:48,722 --> 00:23:51,642 S1: This was actually fixed back in September. And just as 392 00:23:51,642 --> 00:23:55,522 S1: a reminder, I am an advisor there. Just disclosure this 393 00:23:55,522 --> 00:23:58,042 S1: is a solid breakdown of how to use any runs 394 00:23:58,042 --> 00:24:02,802 S1: threat intelligence lookup for proactive threat detection. So talking about 395 00:24:02,802 --> 00:24:07,922 S1: regional threat monitoring, artifact verification, TTP tracking, threat evolution monitoring, 396 00:24:08,562 --> 00:24:13,362 S1: and report enrichment. Congressman Mike Waltz says the incoming administration 397 00:24:13,362 --> 00:24:18,081 S1: plans to shift from defense to offense in cybersecurity, especially 398 00:24:18,562 --> 00:24:22,842 S1: against Chinese threat actors. Happy to hear it. Missile attacks 399 00:24:22,842 --> 00:24:26,401 S1: have now become the leading cause of commercial airline passenger deaths. 400 00:24:26,402 --> 00:24:30,162 S1: 926 people have been killed by missile strikes since 2014. 401 00:24:30,362 --> 00:24:35,522 S1: So nine? Yeah. 926 in 2014 or no? Since 2014, 402 00:24:35,922 --> 00:24:41,722 S1: compared to 458 during, uh, for traditional accidents during the 403 00:24:41,722 --> 00:24:49,091 S1: same period. So like double traditional accidents for 458. Missiles. 926. 404 00:24:49,172 --> 00:24:53,772 S1: That's still a low number, but that's concerning. And a 405 00:24:53,772 --> 00:24:58,612 S1: wilderness survival instructor spent two years infiltrating multiple militia groups, 406 00:24:59,052 --> 00:25:01,692 S1: including becoming a top leader in AP three and gaining 407 00:25:01,692 --> 00:25:04,972 S1: access to Oath Keepers leadership. It turns out to be 408 00:25:04,972 --> 00:25:07,332 S1: someone named John Williams. Not sure if that's their full 409 00:25:07,332 --> 00:25:11,371 S1: name definitely isn't anymore. I could tell you that and 410 00:25:11,372 --> 00:25:16,012 S1: surveilled a student journalist ultimately going public with what he learned. 411 00:25:16,012 --> 00:25:20,092 S1: And that report was fairly disturbing. All right. AI and 412 00:25:20,092 --> 00:25:23,852 S1: tech Sam Altman claims in a new blog post, came 413 00:25:23,852 --> 00:25:26,732 S1: out end of last year that they figured out how 414 00:25:26,732 --> 00:25:29,851 S1: to create AGI. And I want to reiterate why I 415 00:25:29,852 --> 00:25:33,612 S1: think this is the case. Um, it's because AI deploys 416 00:25:33,612 --> 00:25:39,092 S1: as systems, not models. Right. You don't need the perfect 417 00:25:39,092 --> 00:25:41,372 S1: model to come out. That is AGI, and it just 418 00:25:41,372 --> 00:25:44,812 S1: does everything. Competent AI that's going to get rolled out 419 00:25:44,812 --> 00:25:49,102 S1: and replace human jobs is actually dozens of models or 420 00:25:49,102 --> 00:25:52,982 S1: dozens of versions of models, all working together as like 421 00:25:53,582 --> 00:25:56,422 S1: agents passing off to other agents with a bunch of 422 00:25:56,422 --> 00:26:00,782 S1: glue and plumbing and duct tape all around it. And 423 00:26:00,782 --> 00:26:04,262 S1: the whole thing works the same way. Human brain does 424 00:26:04,262 --> 00:26:06,822 S1: a similar way as the human brain does. We've got 425 00:26:06,822 --> 00:26:10,462 S1: multiple things going on in our in our brains, uh, 426 00:26:10,462 --> 00:26:15,582 S1: some of which evolved way longer ago than other parts. 427 00:26:16,342 --> 00:26:20,422 S1: And if you disconnect different pieces from each other, none 428 00:26:20,422 --> 00:26:26,022 S1: of it works. You can't have consciousness and rational thinking 429 00:26:26,742 --> 00:26:29,302 S1: and logic and stuff like that. If you mess with 430 00:26:29,302 --> 00:26:31,822 S1: different parts of the brain, it's the same way with 431 00:26:31,822 --> 00:26:36,102 S1: an AI system. Okay, sure, you need the model, but 432 00:26:36,102 --> 00:26:40,141 S1: you also need, um, supporting models. You also need the context. 433 00:26:40,142 --> 00:26:43,782 S1: You also need the memory mechanism. You also need to 434 00:26:43,952 --> 00:26:46,432 S1: be able to store long term memory and use short 435 00:26:46,472 --> 00:26:49,712 S1: term memory and move things out of memory when they're 436 00:26:49,712 --> 00:26:52,712 S1: all used up. Right. Just like garbage collection in the 437 00:26:52,752 --> 00:26:56,912 S1: in the human brain. So the thing is a giant 438 00:26:56,912 --> 00:27:03,392 S1: mess of lots of legacy traditional tech and automation and 439 00:27:03,392 --> 00:27:07,152 S1: programming combined with all these different AI components. And that 440 00:27:07,152 --> 00:27:10,672 S1: giant thing rolls out as something that can actually replace 441 00:27:10,672 --> 00:27:14,752 S1: a human worker. So you shouldn't be thinking, oh, Claude 442 00:27:15,112 --> 00:27:16,871 S1: four is going to come out and it's going to 443 00:27:16,872 --> 00:27:21,232 S1: replace humans. No. Somebody's going to release a product around cloud. 444 00:27:21,712 --> 00:27:26,912 S1: Cloud four. And those models and that product as a 445 00:27:26,912 --> 00:27:30,071 S1: giant amalgamation is what's going to be able to do 446 00:27:30,072 --> 00:27:35,232 S1: some damage in terms of human work replacement. Um, the 447 00:27:35,232 --> 00:27:41,272 S1: second point here, replacing most human knowledge work jobs is 448 00:27:41,272 --> 00:27:44,162 S1: easier than most think. if you if you think about 449 00:27:44,162 --> 00:27:46,842 S1: what an average person does day to day with like, 450 00:27:47,322 --> 00:27:51,642 S1: you know, collecting emails, doing, uh, reading a summary, creating 451 00:27:51,642 --> 00:27:56,442 S1: a summary, sending out an email, uh, setting up meetings, uh, 452 00:27:56,442 --> 00:28:01,242 S1: writing a report about, uh, security assessments, um, finding vulnerabilities 453 00:28:01,242 --> 00:28:05,202 S1: in a thing. These things are not ultimately that difficult. 454 00:28:05,202 --> 00:28:07,642 S1: And it doesn't mean the far edge of those things 455 00:28:07,642 --> 00:28:10,802 S1: aren't difficult because they they very much are. And they 456 00:28:10,802 --> 00:28:14,682 S1: might stay difficult for a long time. But if we 457 00:28:14,682 --> 00:28:17,922 S1: could do the easy stuff much, much better, that would 458 00:28:17,922 --> 00:28:23,002 S1: move the economy forward in a massive way. Okay. And 459 00:28:23,002 --> 00:28:25,562 S1: that's what companies are going to go for. They're going 460 00:28:25,562 --> 00:28:31,522 S1: to go for the 95% being done 10,000 times faster 461 00:28:32,402 --> 00:28:36,642 S1: for 100 times cheaper, and for that last 5%, guess what? 462 00:28:36,642 --> 00:28:40,242 S1: They'll hire experts. They'll hire human experts, along with the 463 00:28:40,242 --> 00:28:45,482 S1: AI team, which is designed to whittle down that 5%. Right. 464 00:28:45,842 --> 00:28:49,042 S1: That's why I'm so worried about this. And that's why 465 00:28:49,042 --> 00:28:52,362 S1: this is such a threat in my opinion. Um, because 466 00:28:52,362 --> 00:28:55,802 S1: we're not talking about ACI, right? ACI is like, that's 467 00:28:55,802 --> 00:29:00,442 S1: the supercomputer. That's the thing that OpenAI is now talking about, 468 00:29:00,442 --> 00:29:05,362 S1: where it could do it better than Einstein or whatever. Well, fine. Cool. 469 00:29:05,362 --> 00:29:08,042 S1: Keep working on that. What I care about is human 470 00:29:08,042 --> 00:29:12,082 S1: work replacement because that is a human thing. Humans are 471 00:29:12,162 --> 00:29:14,962 S1: what I care about, not this tech. So the bar 472 00:29:14,962 --> 00:29:18,082 S1: for doing this decently well is not that high. And 473 00:29:18,082 --> 00:29:20,922 S1: that's what I think. AGI is a system good enough 474 00:29:20,922 --> 00:29:24,162 S1: to replace an average knowledge worker. And I think it's 475 00:29:24,162 --> 00:29:26,122 S1: a good definition because it deals with the thing we're 476 00:29:26,162 --> 00:29:30,642 S1: actually concerned about, which is human worker replacement. AGI is 477 00:29:30,642 --> 00:29:33,922 S1: not or should not be about benchmarks or lab results. 478 00:29:33,962 --> 00:29:36,802 S1: What matters is humans and how humans are affected by technology. 479 00:29:36,842 --> 00:29:41,532 S1: That's why I use a human definition of AGI. So 480 00:29:41,532 --> 00:29:45,612 S1: given that, I think we'll get there in 25 or 26, 481 00:29:45,732 --> 00:29:50,212 S1: I'd say 40% likely in 2025 and like 50% likely 482 00:29:50,212 --> 00:29:55,012 S1: in 2026. And I would say like 10% in 2027 483 00:29:55,012 --> 00:29:58,972 S1: or beyond. CIA built a tiny robot dragonfly spy in 484 00:29:58,972 --> 00:30:02,332 S1: the 1970s that could fly 200m to deliver a miniature 485 00:30:02,332 --> 00:30:14,812 S1: laser reflectors for eavesdropping. In the 1970s. 50 years ago. Insects. No. Insects. Orthoptera. Insect. Orthoptera. 486 00:30:15,572 --> 00:30:18,452 S1: That's actually a pretty cool name. Could flap its wings 487 00:30:18,452 --> 00:30:23,252 S1: 1800 times. They're doing that in the 70s. Waymo's autonomous 488 00:30:23,252 --> 00:30:26,852 S1: vehicles are showing they're significantly safer than human drivers. Accident 489 00:30:26,892 --> 00:30:30,812 S1: rate 6.7 times lower than human drivers. United Airlines is 490 00:30:30,812 --> 00:30:34,492 S1: rolling out Starlink. I cannot wait to get this. Cannot wait. 491 00:30:35,132 --> 00:30:38,572 S1: Vision Pro just got a planetarium experience. I still haven't 492 00:30:38,572 --> 00:30:41,262 S1: set haven't set this up. It's downstairs. I need to 493 00:30:41,262 --> 00:30:45,702 S1: update it and get this going. I love planetariums. I 494 00:30:45,742 --> 00:30:48,022 S1: grew up going to the planetarium in San Francisco on 495 00:30:48,022 --> 00:30:51,222 S1: field trips. It's probably why I love astronomy so much 496 00:30:51,222 --> 00:30:55,382 S1: still today. And I cannot wait to check out this 497 00:30:55,422 --> 00:31:01,502 S1: planetarium thing on Vision Pro. All right. Uh, den makes 498 00:31:01,502 --> 00:31:04,502 S1: a compelling case for owning your own corner of the internet. 499 00:31:04,582 --> 00:31:08,062 S1: Argues that while big platforms like YouTube and Reddit are useful, 500 00:31:08,062 --> 00:31:13,422 S1: they increasingly, increasingly optimize for engagement and monetization. This is, uh. 501 00:31:13,422 --> 00:31:14,702 S1: This is what I've been saying. You got to have 502 00:31:14,702 --> 00:31:18,582 S1: a website. This is why, uh, I made the upgrade 503 00:31:18,582 --> 00:31:21,062 S1: to my current website. It's like you got to broadcast. 504 00:31:21,062 --> 00:31:23,662 S1: You got to broadcast yourself. You got to be yourself. 505 00:31:23,702 --> 00:31:27,421 S1: Full spectrum self. Put yourself out there and have it 506 00:31:27,422 --> 00:31:31,462 S1: on your own domain. Using your own tech. YouTube can 507 00:31:31,462 --> 00:31:33,982 S1: go away. You don't think it can, but it can. 508 00:31:33,982 --> 00:31:38,352 S1: It's probably the least likely one, honestly. Um, but anyway. uh, 509 00:31:38,352 --> 00:31:44,072 S1: look at medium. Look at, uh, so many different blogging, Tumblr, uh, 510 00:31:44,112 --> 00:31:48,072 S1: so many different blogging platforms. Myspace that used to be around, 511 00:31:48,072 --> 00:31:50,472 S1: they were the only thing going for a long time, 512 00:31:50,472 --> 00:31:53,192 S1: and then they just disappeared. You need to have it yourself. 513 00:31:53,912 --> 00:31:59,192 S1: Not in some platform. Look, I see people putting amazing 514 00:31:59,192 --> 00:32:03,112 S1: stuff into LinkedIn and LinkedIn could just change their algorithm. 515 00:32:03,112 --> 00:32:05,992 S1: The stuff disappears and you're like, where did that go? 516 00:32:06,232 --> 00:32:09,592 S1: How many hours did you spend putting stuff into LinkedIn? 517 00:32:09,592 --> 00:32:12,912 S1: And now it's just that that's gone. Your your thoughts 518 00:32:12,912 --> 00:32:15,152 S1: are gone. Your ideas are gone. It lives in their 519 00:32:15,152 --> 00:32:18,312 S1: infrastructure somewhere. It's no longer useful to them, so they 520 00:32:18,312 --> 00:32:23,152 S1: won't service it anymore. You need to have your ideas captured. 521 00:32:23,872 --> 00:32:26,432 S1: This is part of Telos. It's part of human 3.0. 522 00:32:26,472 --> 00:32:32,232 S1: You need to have your list of ideas available to yourself. Okay. 523 00:32:32,232 --> 00:32:34,752 S1: You put them online because it helps you track them, 524 00:32:35,472 --> 00:32:38,482 S1: but it also helps other people find you so you 525 00:32:38,482 --> 00:32:42,242 S1: can have meaningful human conversations about those topics. You cannot 526 00:32:42,242 --> 00:32:45,042 S1: do that if the stuff lives inside of medium, or 527 00:32:45,042 --> 00:32:52,002 S1: it lives inside of Facebook or X or wherever. Get 528 00:32:52,002 --> 00:32:54,682 S1: the stuff where it where it needs to be as 529 00:32:54,682 --> 00:32:58,642 S1: your own stuff. Okay. So look, I'm going to have 530 00:32:58,642 --> 00:33:00,882 S1: all my stuff here as ideas. I've already got this. 531 00:33:00,882 --> 00:33:03,282 S1: I just need to move it over. Right? I just 532 00:33:03,282 --> 00:33:05,161 S1: need to go and collect the stuff. But that's where 533 00:33:05,162 --> 00:33:08,202 S1: it's going to be. My list of predictions from, like, 534 00:33:08,202 --> 00:33:11,562 S1: the book Super Forecasting, which you need to check out. Um, 535 00:33:12,442 --> 00:33:17,442 S1: my predictions are going to be labeled, listed and labeled 536 00:33:17,442 --> 00:33:20,402 S1: in the kind of the style of super forecasting which 537 00:33:20,402 --> 00:33:23,762 S1: talks about making good predictions. But you don't want to 538 00:33:23,762 --> 00:33:26,442 S1: be making this prediction on LinkedIn and having it disappear. 539 00:33:26,442 --> 00:33:28,562 S1: And you can't even remember. I had to write a 540 00:33:28,562 --> 00:33:32,402 S1: rag for myself, which I just recently did. That allows 541 00:33:32,402 --> 00:33:35,052 S1: me to query any content that I've made I've made 542 00:33:35,052 --> 00:33:40,092 S1: since 1996. Right. Um, and you want to be able 543 00:33:40,092 --> 00:33:41,532 S1: to do that for yourself? You want to be able 544 00:33:41,532 --> 00:33:43,812 S1: to say, what was that thing I was talking about 545 00:33:43,852 --> 00:33:50,092 S1: that about, uh, that pizza recipe or woodworking or, um, 546 00:33:50,092 --> 00:33:52,932 S1: how to play the guitar a certain way. Right. These 547 00:33:52,932 --> 00:33:55,172 S1: these are all deeply human things. You need to have 548 00:33:55,172 --> 00:33:58,132 S1: access to them. This is like a second brain. This 549 00:33:58,132 --> 00:34:02,452 S1: is the augmentation of your brain with tech around you 550 00:34:02,452 --> 00:34:05,372 S1: that helps you remember who you are and what you are. 551 00:34:06,092 --> 00:34:10,091 S1: Continuing on here, the chart of everything economists created a 552 00:34:10,092 --> 00:34:13,932 S1: stunning visualization to show how literally everything in existence emerged 553 00:34:13,931 --> 00:34:17,091 S1: from the Big Bang. This one was really cool. How 554 00:34:17,092 --> 00:34:20,172 S1: do you fit everything in the universe on a chart? Okay. 555 00:34:20,212 --> 00:34:22,812 S1: That one, that one's paywalled. I need to log in. 556 00:34:23,411 --> 00:34:26,091 S1: Paul Cohen makes a compelling case for universities to start 557 00:34:26,091 --> 00:34:30,451 S1: training polymaths again instead of specialists arguing that modern problems 558 00:34:30,451 --> 00:34:36,022 S1: like climate change and sustainability require broad systems level understanding 100% agree. 559 00:34:36,502 --> 00:34:42,962 S1: Massive 40% 44% of US unicorn founders between 97 and 560 00:34:42,962 --> 00:34:47,701 S1: 2019 were born outside the US. That's half guys. Half. 561 00:34:48,622 --> 00:34:52,261 S1: Half of unicorn founders from the last 20 years are 562 00:34:52,261 --> 00:34:56,222 S1: foreign born. That is how crucial immigration is. Survey of 563 00:34:56,261 --> 00:35:00,622 S1: 86 convicted burglars confirms that security cameras and alarms actually 564 00:35:00,661 --> 00:35:06,502 S1: do work as deterrents. Ideas I as founder augmentation and 565 00:35:06,622 --> 00:35:09,741 S1: bet on doers that treat failure as fuel. This is 566 00:35:09,741 --> 00:35:14,462 S1: why I'm so big on, uh, Jensen Huang and Elon 567 00:35:14,462 --> 00:35:17,781 S1: is because they just push, push push push wake up 568 00:35:17,781 --> 00:35:19,981 S1: in the morning. Similar to myself. I wake up in 569 00:35:19,982 --> 00:35:22,981 S1: the morning and I'm just like massively excited. I'm like, oh, 570 00:35:22,982 --> 00:35:24,501 S1: there's so much I need to do. I've got to 571 00:35:24,502 --> 00:35:26,301 S1: fix the website. I've got to do all these things. 572 00:35:26,301 --> 00:35:28,181 S1: I've got all these cards in front of me, I've 573 00:35:28,181 --> 00:35:32,552 S1: got my projects list for the year. I'm just like, boom, boom, boom, Go. 574 00:35:32,832 --> 00:35:35,632 S1: You want to bet on people like that? I'm actually 575 00:35:35,631 --> 00:35:38,312 S1: betting on people like that because I'm in Tesla and 576 00:35:38,312 --> 00:35:42,032 S1: I'm in Nvidia. In terms of stocks, the point is 577 00:35:42,631 --> 00:35:48,711 S1: it's not because of the model Y or the 4090 GPU. 578 00:35:49,071 --> 00:35:52,151 S1: It's because of the person. So that's the point there. Discovery. 579 00:35:52,192 --> 00:35:56,792 S1: New Kaido Kaido plugin product by my buddies Joseph Thacker 580 00:35:56,792 --> 00:36:01,111 S1: and Justin Rhino Rader. Basically, this is a new plugin 581 00:36:01,111 --> 00:36:05,471 S1: for using AI to help you do security assessments, especially 582 00:36:05,471 --> 00:36:10,632 S1: on web apps within Kaido, which is a burp competitor. 583 00:36:10,631 --> 00:36:14,111 S1: And Joseph launched this as a product. Well, both of 584 00:36:14,111 --> 00:36:16,592 S1: them launched it as a product. So it's a plugin 585 00:36:16,591 --> 00:36:20,671 S1: inside of Kaido and you should check it out. Joseph 586 00:36:20,792 --> 00:36:23,191 S1: is a close friend and super cool and you should 587 00:36:23,192 --> 00:36:26,511 S1: go check it out. Brand AI Analysis Tool. Someone made 588 00:36:26,511 --> 00:36:30,231 S1: a cool agent that shows you how ChatGPT perceives and 589 00:36:30,232 --> 00:36:36,522 S1: recommends different brands. This is becoming huge. Okay, you ask 590 00:36:36,921 --> 00:36:42,041 S1: I to compare brands. And if you are a brand 591 00:36:42,042 --> 00:36:45,082 S1: and I says something about about you, guess what? That's 592 00:36:45,082 --> 00:36:48,321 S1: the new SEO. That is the new SEO. Because guess what? 593 00:36:48,562 --> 00:36:53,161 S1: The AI presumably has looked at thousands of different forum 594 00:36:53,161 --> 00:36:57,442 S1: posts or whatever it is representing reality. If you score 595 00:36:57,482 --> 00:37:00,401 S1: worse than something else or it says something about about you. 596 00:37:00,642 --> 00:37:03,842 S1: If the AI is decent, which it probably is, that 597 00:37:03,841 --> 00:37:06,882 S1: thing that's negative that was said about you is probably true. 598 00:37:07,361 --> 00:37:09,642 S1: So this is a way of getting to ground truth 599 00:37:09,642 --> 00:37:12,802 S1: about how you are perceived. You could do this for people. 600 00:37:12,801 --> 00:37:14,642 S1: You could do this for countries. You could do this 601 00:37:14,642 --> 00:37:18,201 S1: for whatever. In this particular thing it's looking at brands. 602 00:37:18,801 --> 00:37:22,041 S1: But this is the this is kind of the way 603 00:37:22,042 --> 00:37:25,282 S1: things are going is you ask AI what the current 604 00:37:25,281 --> 00:37:27,761 S1: state of the world is. That's what this comes down to. 605 00:37:28,201 --> 00:37:30,171 S1: And then if you don't like that Like that state, 606 00:37:30,332 --> 00:37:33,372 S1: you do something about it hitting OKRs versus doing your job. 607 00:37:33,372 --> 00:37:37,052 S1: Great explanation of how OKRs should focus on new initiatives 608 00:37:37,332 --> 00:37:41,292 S1: and changes rather than duplicating regular work tracking. Amen to that. 609 00:37:41,451 --> 00:37:45,971 S1: Amen not amen. I say amen at the table. I'm 610 00:37:45,971 --> 00:37:48,531 S1: an atheist, by the way, so you do the calculus 611 00:37:48,531 --> 00:37:52,852 S1: on that. But I think anyway, it doesn't matter. Raspberry 612 00:37:52,852 --> 00:37:55,852 S1: shake a line of professional grade seismographs for home and 613 00:37:55,852 --> 00:38:01,171 S1: educational use. It can detect ground movements smaller than 1/100 614 00:38:01,171 --> 00:38:05,451 S1: of a human width of hair. So it's going to 615 00:38:05,491 --> 00:38:09,971 S1: hear me listening to music in this studio. I didn't 616 00:38:09,971 --> 00:38:14,612 S1: buy one yet, but oh man, I really want one. 617 00:38:15,292 --> 00:38:17,051 S1: You know what? I'm just going to get one. See 618 00:38:17,051 --> 00:38:19,852 S1: what you made me do. See what you made me do. 619 00:38:19,852 --> 00:38:24,411 S1: All right, 25 Useful Ideas for 2025. This guy Gurwinder 620 00:38:24,732 --> 00:38:28,291 S1: is one of my favorite thinkers right now. This is 621 00:38:28,462 --> 00:38:32,062 S1: an extraordinary list. You should have gotten the newsletter already. 622 00:38:32,062 --> 00:38:34,741 S1: By the way, if you're not getting the newsletter, you 623 00:38:34,741 --> 00:38:39,341 S1: go to Daniel newsletter and sign up for it. That 624 00:38:39,341 --> 00:38:41,142 S1: is the way to get all these show notes because 625 00:38:41,142 --> 00:38:43,982 S1: I'm jumping around all over the place. It's very clear 626 00:38:43,982 --> 00:38:45,622 S1: right here in the newsletter, which is the thing that 627 00:38:45,622 --> 00:38:48,622 S1: I'm reading, right. So go check that out. Okay. Uh, 628 00:38:48,661 --> 00:38:52,461 S1: let's see here. SF purity test. Someone made a hilarious 629 00:38:52,462 --> 00:38:55,341 S1: checklist scoring system for how deep you are in SF 630 00:38:55,381 --> 00:38:59,501 S1: tech culture. Which items like apply to OpenAI switch from 631 00:38:59,502 --> 00:39:05,222 S1: ChatGPT to cloud and back. Uh, told somebody you won't 632 00:39:05,221 --> 00:39:08,301 S1: date because AGI is coming. Those are accurate and they 633 00:39:08,301 --> 00:39:12,181 S1: shouldn't be. YOLO security. Somebody made a parody Pentesting company 634 00:39:12,181 --> 00:39:17,022 S1: website that generates empty pen test reports to make management happy. Yep. 635 00:39:17,062 --> 00:39:21,541 S1: Python one shot tools by Simon Wilkinson CF hero new 636 00:39:21,542 --> 00:39:25,581 S1: tool for finding real IP addresses behind Cloudflare. Technical debt 637 00:39:25,622 --> 00:39:30,982 S1: is entropy in software. The title itself is good. I mean, yeah, 638 00:39:31,701 --> 00:39:36,582 S1: types make hard problems easy. I am a TypeScript convert. 639 00:39:36,901 --> 00:39:41,102 S1: I'm learning it. I'm using it. I'm not learning it deeply. Honestly, 640 00:39:41,102 --> 00:39:44,022 S1: I'm just using it more as I'm building things. And 641 00:39:44,062 --> 00:39:47,581 S1: I'm especially telling my AI to use TypeScript when I'm 642 00:39:47,582 --> 00:39:51,301 S1: having it build things for me. But in the process, 643 00:39:51,462 --> 00:39:54,901 S1: I'm slowly converting over. Oh, by the way, whenever I 644 00:39:54,901 --> 00:39:58,261 S1: do anything with Python, I'm using UV now. And this 645 00:39:58,261 --> 00:40:00,781 S1: is actually in my cursor notes. In fact, I'm going 646 00:40:00,821 --> 00:40:03,781 S1: to show my cursor notes real quick. Oh yeah. Look 647 00:40:03,781 --> 00:40:07,341 S1: at this. Uh, look at that. I almost showed a 648 00:40:07,341 --> 00:40:10,861 S1: whole bunch of keys. And that's specifically what I was 649 00:40:10,861 --> 00:40:13,582 S1: trying not to do. And I'm almost dragged the window 650 00:40:13,582 --> 00:40:16,421 S1: over and showed a whole bunch of keys. Um, I 651 00:40:16,421 --> 00:40:18,261 S1: don't think I am now. So I'm going to drag 652 00:40:18,261 --> 00:40:21,981 S1: this over. Look at this. This is my rules for AI. 653 00:40:21,982 --> 00:40:26,192 S1: This tells it exactly how to build things for me 654 00:40:26,511 --> 00:40:28,792 S1: and how to interact with me, and how to modify 655 00:40:28,792 --> 00:40:31,311 S1: my code when I change code. I tell it not 656 00:40:31,312 --> 00:40:34,111 S1: to do certain things to it. I tell it all 657 00:40:34,111 --> 00:40:38,672 S1: my preferences. I tell it only use UV to do 658 00:40:38,671 --> 00:40:43,031 S1: dependency management, and this is within cursor, where you can 659 00:40:43,031 --> 00:40:45,792 S1: essentially talk to your agent and tell it how to 660 00:40:45,832 --> 00:40:48,152 S1: work with you. All right. Hopefully I didn't dox myself 661 00:40:48,151 --> 00:40:51,312 S1: with anything in there. Hopefully the team will clean it 662 00:40:51,312 --> 00:40:56,352 S1: up if I did. Jetson. Um, okay. Yeah. Speaking of Nvidia. 663 00:40:56,392 --> 00:41:00,631 S1: Nvidia just released a $249 AI computer. It's half the 664 00:41:00,631 --> 00:41:04,271 S1: price of the previous model aimed at hobbyists. I'm getting 665 00:41:04,272 --> 00:41:08,311 S1: one of these, I think. Raspberry Pi, but, like, way 666 00:41:08,312 --> 00:41:13,071 S1: better and cooler. And Nvidia and GPU and AI based. 667 00:41:13,232 --> 00:41:15,392 S1: So I'm getting one and I want one of these too, 668 00:41:15,392 --> 00:41:16,951 S1: but I'm not sure if I'm going to get it. 669 00:41:17,151 --> 00:41:20,751 S1: Project digits you you can develop and run inference on 670 00:41:20,752 --> 00:41:25,521 S1: models using their own desktop system. Hours guide to mechanical Keyboards. 671 00:41:25,761 --> 00:41:34,361 S1: I have the old 75, which I highly recommend, and Lobn. 672 00:41:34,401 --> 00:41:36,642 S1: Nice little tool that shows you which stories are being 673 00:41:36,642 --> 00:41:40,681 S1: discussed on both Lobsters and Hacker News. Recommendation of the week. 674 00:41:41,602 --> 00:41:44,001 S1: When dealt chaos, find a way to benefit from it. 675 00:41:44,042 --> 00:41:49,042 S1: 2025 might be completely insane, but like Littlefinger said, chaos 676 00:41:49,082 --> 00:41:51,922 S1: is a ladder. He actually died in the end, but 677 00:41:51,921 --> 00:41:54,801 S1: I think it's still a good lesson. Seriously though, it's 678 00:41:54,921 --> 00:42:00,562 S1: a tremendous opportunity when change is happening. The more chaos, 679 00:42:00,562 --> 00:42:03,161 S1: the more opportunity. And like I was saying in the 680 00:42:03,161 --> 00:42:06,961 S1: very beginning, the more chaos, the more I think the 681 00:42:07,002 --> 00:42:10,761 S1: bias moves towards people who take action. There is something 682 00:42:10,761 --> 00:42:13,721 S1: to be said for like being cautious and just like 683 00:42:13,761 --> 00:42:17,122 S1: going into a bunker and not doing anything. I think 684 00:42:17,122 --> 00:42:20,321 S1: that is sometimes a way to go. So you have 685 00:42:20,321 --> 00:42:23,362 S1: to use your judgment here. But I would say doing 686 00:42:23,531 --> 00:42:27,251 S1: that too much while there's chaos happening. It means you're 687 00:42:27,252 --> 00:42:32,852 S1: not evaluating the situation and looking for leverage opportunities. Okay, 688 00:42:32,852 --> 00:42:36,292 S1: when there's chaos happening, it means there are new needs 689 00:42:36,372 --> 00:42:41,611 S1: rising up, unfulfilled needs from large user bases, and that 690 00:42:41,611 --> 00:42:45,091 S1: is an opportunity for you to jump in, boom, build 691 00:42:45,091 --> 00:42:50,172 S1: a service, build an application, launch it, put stripe on it, 692 00:42:50,372 --> 00:42:52,931 S1: and boom, you just made a ton of money off 693 00:42:52,931 --> 00:42:56,892 S1: of that and and helped a bunch of people. And 694 00:42:56,892 --> 00:43:00,211 S1: you made it from nothing. You made it yourself from 695 00:43:00,212 --> 00:43:07,612 S1: nothing with I probably, but, um, I would say use 696 00:43:07,611 --> 00:43:12,612 S1: the positive framing for the chaos that is coming. Um, 697 00:43:12,611 --> 00:43:16,292 S1: I'm using this to help myself. I mean, I'm just 698 00:43:16,292 --> 00:43:19,812 S1: as sad about the current state of the events as 699 00:43:19,812 --> 00:43:26,061 S1: anyone else. South Korea is in chaos. Hoo hoo! Guest 700 00:43:26,062 --> 00:43:29,422 S1: 3 to 5 years ago, South Korea would be in chaos. 701 00:43:29,582 --> 00:43:33,142 S1: That makes no sense to me. Like, things are absolutely crazy. 702 00:43:33,982 --> 00:43:37,741 S1: But I'm asking you to use a stoic mindset to 703 00:43:37,781 --> 00:43:41,741 S1: basically say, okay, cool. Lots of chaos. Awesome. That's time 704 00:43:41,741 --> 00:43:43,982 S1: for me to read. That's time for me to read 705 00:43:43,982 --> 00:43:48,021 S1: even more and join book clubs and focus on my 706 00:43:48,022 --> 00:43:50,102 S1: own projects. Oh, and by the way, there's going to 707 00:43:50,102 --> 00:43:54,101 S1: be lots of business opportunities. Cool. I'm finding the positive, 708 00:43:54,861 --> 00:43:58,342 S1: if I can, as much as I can, as often 709 00:43:58,341 --> 00:44:01,062 S1: as I can. And this is a technique for doing that. 710 00:44:01,381 --> 00:44:04,901 S1: And the aphorism of the week when tomorrow is uncertain, 711 00:44:04,982 --> 00:44:07,781 S1: it's often dangerous to be exactly the same person you 712 00:44:07,821 --> 00:44:13,422 S1: were yesterday. Chaos makes it risky to not take risks. 713 00:44:13,421 --> 00:44:16,542 S1: When tomorrow is uncertain, it's often dangerous to be exactly 714 00:44:16,542 --> 00:44:20,261 S1: the same person you were yesterday. Chaos makes it risky 715 00:44:20,582 --> 00:44:21,901 S1: to not take risks.