S1: All right. Welcome to unsupervised learning. It's Daniel Meisler. All right.
S1: What do we got here? All right. So got a
S1: new definition of prompt engineering that I'm basically using. Now
S1: when I talk to people. And I can share that
S1: a little bit later. AI's impact on the job market.
S1: Working on a number of new talks. I didn't think
S1: I was going to do this. I thought I was
S1: actually going to be like 2 or 3 for the
S1: whole year, but it's like turning into a lot more.
S1: So curious to see where that's going to end up.
S1: It's going to end up being like 4 or 5 talks.
S1: What I like about this system that I'm using, though,
S1: is that I'm only speaking about stuff that I normally
S1: talk about anyway, and that's what essentially what the newsletter
S1: is and what the podcast is. It's like stuff I'm
S1: already talking about and it's the same for talks, it's
S1: the same for presentations, it's the same for blogs. It's
S1: the same for tweets. Like I'm not doing a strategy
S1: that relates to particular media or syndication destinations. I'm not
S1: thinking at all about that, actually. And I've talked about
S1: this multiple times before, but people keep bringing it up, like,
S1: how do you come up with ideas or whatever? First
S1: of all, the way I come up with ideas is
S1: I read a crap ton of stuff, like all the time.
S1: I'm always reading mostly books, but also articles and stuff
S1: like that, and social media and other builders and creators
S1: in AI and security and stuff like that. So that
S1: is the main way that I get ideas is by
S1: having tons and tons of inputs. And the metaphor that
S1: I use for this before was like a particle accelerator,
S1: like I'm just like the atom, the tiny little brain
S1: in the middle. But I'm being bombarded by the coolest
S1: ideas from like Greek classics to like ancient philosophy productivity
S1: books to AI stuff to whatever. And when that stuff
S1: hits my brain. If you've ever seen those outputs from
S1: one of these particle accelerators, it's like this super colorful, amazing,
S1: like explosion of things that come out of it. And
S1: those are all the subatomic particles. And what's interesting about
S1: this analogy is those only last for this very small
S1: amount of time. And that's why I'm so obsessed with capturing,
S1: because if I'm having a conversation or I'm out for
S1: a walk and it's funny because going out for a
S1: walk or taking a shower with no tech is very
S1: similar to a particle accelerator, where you're actually capturing ideas
S1: from really smart things, because what happens is your brain
S1: will start freaking out and it's like, hey, let's think
S1: about some stuff. Hey, what about that one time where
S1: you read that one thing and it starts just churning
S1: and coming up with cool ideas, which is why you
S1: have ideas in the shower, because your brain is freaking
S1: out because it doesn't have any input. So it starts
S1: like just generating things. I wonder if we're doing the
S1: same things in dreams or whatever. I'm not sure. Maybe
S1: a similar mechanism, but the point is, I have ideas
S1: because I consume a lot and the ideas don't even
S1: necessarily have anything to do with what I'm consuming. They
S1: tend to be peripheral to what I'm consuming, and that's
S1: why I read deeply but broadly. Right? Because I'll switch
S1: to fiction and there'll be a cool idea in the fiction,
S1: and then suddenly the fiction is the peanut butter. And
S1: this nonfiction AI thing that I'm working on or coding
S1: on is like the chocolate, and they mix together and
S1: all of a sudden I have a cool idea. And
S1: this is why I really believe that this whole idea
S1: of like, oh, people are super smart or people are
S1: super genius or whatever, look at this person who has
S1: all the ideas. Nope. The ideas come from inputs. If
S1: you stop reading and I know this for a fact
S1: for myself, if I stop reading within a few months,
S1: even a couple of weeks, like my brain will just
S1: slow down. Like I will not have the same number
S1: or quality of ideas coming in. And this is why
S1: people like Buffett and Charlie Munger and all these people,
S1: they're like, look, if you want to be smart, you
S1: need to read. You need to be consuming really high
S1: quality stuff at a very high rate of speed. And
S1: that's not always the case with like the rate you
S1: can actually get really high quality ideas. Riva has talked
S1: about this where like slow reading, a deep book like
S1: the Bible, or like a classic from the Greeks or something, whatever.
S1: You could slow read and try to memorize and like
S1: go super deep with the thing, try to fully extract
S1: all the wisdom from it and do that on a
S1: regular basis. And you still get lots of ideas. But
S1: what you can't do is do nothing and think nothing,
S1: and consume nothing and just consume. You don't want to
S1: just be like watching Netflix or something. Of course, there
S1: could be some good stuff on Netflix where you actually
S1: get some ideas, but in general, that is a thing
S1: that calms your mind and like sedates it right? You're
S1: not getting high quality content coming in. It's more like relaxation.
S1: So all right, cool giant diatribe. And we've got through
S1: one bullet in the damn newsletter. All right. Publish a
S1: new official pattern template in fabric. So official Pattern Template
S1: is the name of it. And it's basically all my
S1: latest formats and instructions. And like the structure of the
S1: of the pattern or a prompt really an I prompt
S1: that works best for me. And I did a few
S1: updates here. I've got a lot more, I would say
S1: comments or descriptions of the sections. I broke out more sections.
S1: I added a examples and negative examples section, and I
S1: also broke out the identity and the goal. So a
S1: number of upgrades in there and people have been asking like, okay,
S1: how do you make a perfect prompt? So I made this,
S1: that basically shows that. And of course that's going to
S1: be updated constantly. Right. Because this is like there's no
S1: testing for these things. So everything I'm doing is like
S1: it's like it's like placebo. If it works for me,
S1: I'm like, yeah, this is really cool. I like it,
S1: and I continue to do it because it works for me.
S1: And when I test it against other things, I am
S1: doing a B testing. But first of all, LMS are non-deterministic,
S1: so I can get different answers for whatever it's like.
S1: In order to do this properly, you need to run
S1: it like tens of times, dozens of times, hundreds of times.
S1: And of course you have to worry about cost here,
S1: but then you have to have a really good objective
S1: rating system that's looking at those and actually finding the
S1: differences between these prompt techniques. And a bunch of papers
S1: have tried to do this. I have not necessarily agreed
S1: with the results of those papers. And again, that could
S1: be because the whole thing is a moving target in
S1: the first place, right? Bottom line is this what works
S1: for me? It is the official pattern template in fabric
S1: right now. Did my buddy Jason Haddix red blue, purple
S1: I class last week. It was fantastic. It was Monday,
S1: no Thursday and Friday of last week. It was so good.
S1: Jason is definitely the best teacher that I know and
S1: it was like, you're learning stuff. But he's also just
S1: hanging out. He's talking or we're talking all his friends.
S1: Different people like myself were also contributing to the class
S1: a little bit. He would ask a question, we would
S1: give an answer. Jason would chime in on that. And
S1: the people taking the class were also super smart. So
S1: they were contributing lots of stuff, and it was just
S1: like it was just great. It was absolutely great. Both
S1: days of content really enjoyed, and the next time it
S1: comes out, you should definitely sign up. So I got
S1: a new sponsor conversation here with Abhishek from Material Security.
S1: He's the CEO over there and we talked about a
S1: bunch of cool stuff. It was really a great conversation.
S1: One of my favorite topics was like, why are product
S1: managers so good at being CEOs? And so he gave
S1: a great answer to that. I got another piece up
S1: here on getting a perfect sound from your microphone. And
S1: this sound that you're currently listening to is a good
S1: version of that, although I don't do post-production for this
S1: particular thing because this is an OBS video going directly
S1: into YouTube. So I'm not doing post-production on here, but
S1: it should be a pretty decent initial sound. I got
S1: a political one here. It's called The left's. It's political,
S1: but it's centrist, so I don't think it should bother
S1: you unless you're crazy left or crazy right? But you
S1: should check that out. Lots of people from the left
S1: and the right have reached out and said that they
S1: loved it. So that should be a good metric for you. Yeah,
S1: it's called Left's Brexit security got a bad checkpoint. Von
S1: massive botnet was busted up. Ukraine is using AI against jamming.
S1: So yeah, it's basically like kill decision from Daniel Suarez where, um,
S1: the drones were getting jammed, GPS jammed, and also just
S1: any RF was getting jammed. So they made them autonomous
S1: so they could just navigate by vision and looking at landmarks.
S1: And then the idea was you have a drone swarm.
S1: And this is from the book and probably also from reality,
S1: also brought to you by the Pentagon, a drone swarm
S1: with tiny little explosives on them. And they would just
S1: all fly and navigate. They would have a target that
S1: they were trying to kill, and they would navigate by
S1: the landmarks. And when they find the person, they could
S1: do facial recognition on board, don't need to call out
S1: anywhere and then just crash into them, kamikaze and kill
S1: the person. And jammers don't matter because they're not using
S1: navigation based on RF smart home tech in warfare. So
S1: Home Assistant is being used in Ukraine to warn people
S1: of alerts of attacks incoming. Yeah. Incogni is another data
S1: deletion service similar to delete me moves your info from
S1: over 170 data brokers. They are not a sponsor. Otherwise
S1: you would say sponsor on the top of it Ticketmaster.
S1: So they got hit by a group called Shiny Hunters,
S1: and it looks like around 560 million people's data has
S1: been stolen. 560 million. I'm so glad they were getting
S1: broken up, or at least we're trying to break them up.
S1: And so glad that Taylor made that happen. I think
S1: she did. A few people spread the most information about
S1: fake news about vaccines and stuff like that, going, this
S1: is back to like 2020 and 2021, but, uh, older
S1: Republican women. 80% of the misinformation. Yeah, I wrote this myself. Small,
S1: persistent groups can have a significant impact on propaganda. You
S1: wouldn't think that. You would think that small groups like
S1: that would just be like a glass of water in
S1: the ocean, but turns out if you're persistent enough, it'll
S1: get out there. NSA released a guide on how to
S1: keep your phone from getting hacked, and they basically said
S1: you should reboot your phone once a week. Frightening. What
S1: do they know that I don't know? Or they're like, yeah,
S1: you should reboot your phone every week. And I'm like, why?
S1: Never mind. Don't want to know technology. All right. So grok,
S1: I talked about this. How fast it is wickedly fast
S1: this thing okay. So it can now do be lama
S1: 3 to 1200 tokens per second. That's essentially like it
S1: just fills out the page as if it just instant.
S1: And so here's my question. Why doesn't Google or OpenAI
S1: or Microsoft or someone just like, walk up like, you know,
S1: a clearinghouse sweepstakes or something? And just like, here's a
S1: box of $1 billion, please give us your technology and disappear. Right.
S1: This is like Magic Beans proprietary chip tech that lets
S1: him basically run AI. What, tens of times faster than
S1: anyone else? Ridiculous. Looks like Satya Nadella is freaking out
S1: about a potential partnership between OpenAI and Apple. I think
S1: he's right to freak out, and he should make a
S1: phone before it's too late. Or a personal assistant on
S1: some kind of device. He needs a personal device. Anyone
S1: who wants to play going forward need a personal device
S1: and an OS, and it needs to be able to
S1: see and hear and basically be integrated with all your context.
S1: And anyone who's not doing this is screwed. And people
S1: have a massive advantage. Are people who already have access
S1: into a robust operating system, namely Android and Apple. Researchers
S1: have new attention mechanisms that actually outperform standard multi-head attention. Cool. Well,
S1: let me know when it fixes haystack performance. Need I
S1: need haystack performance. I need to be able to give
S1: you giant text documents and you don't miss a single thing.
S1: So wake me up when that happens, all right? Recall
S1: a privacy disaster. This is the Microsoft thing that records everything.
S1: Stealing everything. This is what I wrote. Stealing everything you've
S1: ever typed or viewed on your windows PC is now
S1: a reality, thanks to a feature in Copilot plus recall
S1: that is a privacy nightmare. Yeah, disagree with that take.
S1: I think in ten years almost everyone will think computers
S1: who don't have this are basically worthless. And in fact,
S1: ten years most people won't be talking, will only be talking,
S1: will mostly be talking and gesturing to their computers. Computer
S1: will mostly be like monitors and HUD displays or whatever,
S1: and your computers are basically doing the work. So the
S1: idea that it's going to forget something you worked on
S1: or forget something that was said to you, or that
S1: you said to somebody else is completely asinine. Of course
S1: your AI is going to remember everything. What else would
S1: it do? All right, Llms aren't just internet simulators anymore. Yeah,
S1: so increasingly llms are being trained on custom non-internet data
S1: that's there's still a data wall there as well. But
S1: I don't know, I think a lot of people like
S1: social media companies. Meta is in great position for this,
S1: for example. I mean, because they have Instagram, they have
S1: all this thing. So basically whatever people are posting and
S1: doing and talking about, that becomes a massive source of data.
S1: Anyone who's like really close to the OS and especially
S1: in messaging apps, social media apps, that is a massive
S1: source of data that they can then sell to other
S1: AI companies or keep it for themselves to have an advantage.
S1: In the case of like Lama3, Nvidia is getting ready
S1: to overtake Apple in market cap. That's insane. Completely insane.
S1: But here's a way to make sense of this. Imagine
S1: that there's a giant filter on how many people are
S1: capable of creating a hit movie, writing a book, starting
S1: a business, sharing their art with billions of people. In
S1: other words, imagine the current number of major builders or
S1: creators is something like 0.00000000000 17 of our 8 billion people.
S1: I just made up that number. It's not a real number,
S1: despite how precise it is. So just work with me.
S1: So the reason Nvidia is rising so fast is because
S1: one of the primary pieces of tech is the GPU. Okay?
S1: It is like center mass of this entire thing. And
S1: what we're talking about is removing 3 to 5 zeros
S1: from this big zero number. We're talking about multiplying humanity's
S1: creativity output by thousands in the next decade. And that
S1: requires chips. And thank you for coming to my Ted
S1: talk about Nvidia. That's essentially why they are skyrocketing. Google
S1: released an SRE handbook. Basically saying simplicity is a core
S1: principle for reliability makes total sense to me. They should
S1: make one for product management. That's mean. But it's funny.
S1: All right. Karpathy's GPT two 124 million parameters looks like
S1: LMK and 90 minutes for. $20. Karpathy is an absolute beast.
S1: Tiny Grad's latest update. This is from Geohot. Slashes Python
S1: time and ditches external dependencies. Terminal animations. These look really cool.
S1: I'm not sure I'm going to use them, but they
S1: look really cool. And humans little known intelligence bureau that
S1: nailed the outcomes in Vietnam, Iraq and Ukraine. I want
S1: to build something that basically programmatically goes and gets these
S1: predictions and incorporates them into my life model and how
S1: I see the world, because it's essentially like these prediction
S1: markets are the smartest people doing the best kind of predictions,
S1: and they're doing it in a very transparent and logical way.
S1: And I learned about this from the book called Superforecasters.
S1: Is that Tetlock? Bill Tetlock, I think, might be the
S1: name of the author or one of the authors. Unbelievable stuff. Really,
S1: really good stuff. New study says sleep inequality in the
S1: US is tied to economic stress. Makes sense to me.
S1: Mice with PTSD like behavior showed significant improvement after having
S1: access to a running wheel. Basically, exercise induced neurogenesis like
S1: healing trauma with exercise. That was a bit of a stretch,
S1: but that's where they're going with this Ozempic and wegovy
S1: changing eating habits, fine tuning your taste buds, making sweets
S1: taste sweeter. Mm. Yeah. I mean, it's definitely having an
S1: effect on me. Like I had pizza. I've been having
S1: pizza because of watching this damn pizza influencer who samples
S1: pizza and is just making me want to eat pizza. Anyway,
S1: I get a pizza, I eat, like three slices and
S1: I'm just like, yeah, it was good, I guess, but
S1: I'm full. Whereas before before I took Wegovy, I would
S1: be like, I would eat three quarters of the pizza
S1: and be like, I should not eat any more. And
S1: then I would eat the rest and be like, what's
S1: up with ice cream? John Carmack dives into bullshit jobs. Yeah,
S1: really good book by David Graeber. Got to read that book.
S1: I need to read it again. No, I don't I
S1: should just summarize it. I have a fabric pattern for that.
S1: Imagine navigating high school social maze without a smartphone, missing
S1: out on chats and memes, beginning a unique perspective on
S1: life and friendships, the social lives of teens who don't
S1: have phones. I don't have to imagine this. I grew
S1: up in the 80s. It was glorious. Yeah, very much
S1: on the tip of Jonathan Haidt basically saying getting phones
S1: out of schools highly support that effort. Comprehensive review finds
S1: I exercises might actually help in preventing and controlling myopia.
S1: This is actually an incorrect read. This was my fault.
S1: This is an incorrect read. The study. There are a
S1: whole bunch of studies saying it helps and a whole
S1: bunch of studies saying it's not. But this particular study
S1: actually says they couldn't find much evidence, strong evidence that
S1: it did help. So that's that's boo on my part.
S1: Lung cancer breakthrough unprotected. Oh yeah a lot of people
S1: are talking about this. I don't get excited until it
S1: comes to market and everyone loves it like Wegovy. But
S1: lots of people are talking about how this thing is insane. 60%
S1: of advanced stage patients progression free for five years. Marc
S1: Andreessen says to stay in school. But then he says,
S1: if you're the type of person to drop out, you
S1: also won't listen to this advice. And I love this letter.
S1: Love my Wife is dead letter from Richard Feynman to
S1: his dead wife. Very touching ideas and analysis. My favorite
S1: way to explain prompt engineering. Basically, don't think of it
S1: like I think of it in this way. Instead, prompt
S1: engineering is how to explain to a superior intelligence what
S1: your problem is and what you would like to happen.
S1: And if you can't do that well, you will lose
S1: to people who can't. That's it. How to explain to
S1: a superior intelligence what your problem is and what you
S1: would like to happen. That's prompt engineering. All right. My
S1: X thread on why it's so hard to find tech
S1: jobs right now. All right. So this this is the
S1: vibe here problem for the job market isn't that AI
S1: is happening. The problem is that it's happening at the
S1: exact same moment that most companies are figuring out that 80%
S1: of their employees are worthless. We need to stop expecting
S1: things to go back to the way they were. The
S1: new reality is companies mostly hiring super ambitious, exceptional, proven
S1: people who are total gods. With AI, this means most
S1: formal education becomes a waste of time and money, because
S1: a degree doesn't certify that you are super ambitious or
S1: exceptional or proven, it doesn't certify any of those things.
S1: So in this model, only elite schools will matter because
S1: the filtering for being exceptional will have happened just by
S1: being accepted into the school. That doesn't count for like
S1: people who got in because their mom already graduated, right?
S1: But for people who got in via merit to a
S1: top school, that is a good filter. So really this
S1: is two separate things. One, you're exceptional enough to be
S1: accepted into the top school and two, you finish some classes.
S1: Problem is, number two, you can get anywhere, right? The
S1: actual training in school between one like a state school
S1: and like Harvard is not that much different. Number one
S1: is the thing that employers actually care. The filter to
S1: be able to get into an elite institution. So the
S1: result will be companies hiring the top 10 to 20%
S1: of people in competence. And this will be filtered by
S1: elite school attendance and proof of competence via something you've
S1: put into the world, like on your website, YouTube as
S1: a tool or a company you built, or an AI
S1: algorithm rating you. This is going to be huge as well.
S1: So the hyperbolic form of this is if you're not
S1: 19 and at Harvard, or if you don't have your
S1: own projects or companies you've built and talked about online,
S1: you are not going to be interesting to employers. You
S1: will be part of the 90% basically fighting for scraps
S1: and the recommendation of the week for everyone you know
S1: who's going to be thinking about their career in the future,
S1: which is basically anyone who's not independently wealthy try to
S1: get them to think about things in the following way.
S1: AI is going to take out most executors of knowledge work.
S1: The people who will survive are the people with ideas
S1: who are actively building that thing, actively building that thing.
S1: So it's not just ideas. So the safest thing to
S1: be is a creator or a builder. That means a
S1: founder or an entrepreneur, a programmer, somebody with ideas who
S1: is productive and ambitious, like an artist like you could
S1: be an artist. It doesn't have to be some hardcore engineer,
S1: but it's got to be some kind of category like that.
S1: And the trick is you have to be able to
S1: have the ideas, be able to make it yourself, or
S1: attract the talent and the AI and harness the AI
S1: to be able to make it. And then you've got
S1: to be able to market the hell out of it,
S1: which is a lot of writing. So a lot of
S1: like communication and persuasion. So bottom line, the winners in
S1: this new game will be the people making new things
S1: and bringing them into the world. I'm going to say
S1: that again, the winners in this new game will be
S1: the people making new things and bringing them into the world.
S1: And the aphorism of the week. The most beautiful people
S1: we have known are those who have known defeat, known suffering,
S1: known struggle, known loss, and have found their way out
S1: of the depths. Elisabeth Kubler-Ross.