WEBVTT - UL NO. 442: Crowdstrike Analysis, Cannabis=Soma?, NK Github SE, AI Weaponry

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<v S1>Whether you're starting or scaling your company's security program, demonstrating

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<v S1>you go to Vanta comm slash unsupervised. That's vanta.com/supervised for

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<v S1>$1,000 off. Welcome to Unsupervised Learning, a security, AI, and

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<v S1>meaning focused podcast that looks at how best to thrive

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<v S1>as humans in a post AI world. It combines original ideas,

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<v S1>analysis and mental models to bring not just the news,

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<v S1>but why it matters and how to respond. All right,

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<v S1>welcome to unsupervised learning. This is Daniel Miessler. Okay. Leigh

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<v S1>Honeywell had probably the best or coolest little quote here about, uh,

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<v S1>the CrowdStrike incident. Any sufficiently bad software update is indistinguishable

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<v S1>from a cyberattack. Love that. Had a wonderful couple of

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<v S1>days celebrating my buddy Jason's birthday, and it's actually coming

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<v S1>up on the 27th and mine is on the 26th,

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<v S1>so it's a little bit in the future. But we

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<v S1>celebrated last weekend and it was super fun. Did a

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<v S1>presentation for a UN group on the future of AI

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<v S1>and employability, and that should be coming out soon to YouTube.

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<v S1>So look for that soon. Doing another UL dinner in Vegas.

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<v S1>This is going to be cool. Mad props to all

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<v S1>the people who had to hustle and grind this weekend

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<v S1>as a result of Blue Friday, and let's get into it.

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<v S1>So I've been mostly heads down on the class, so

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<v S1>I haven't written any new essays. Security, CrowdStrike. Outage I

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<v S1>think we all know the deal at this point. Banks, airlines, hospitals,

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<v S1>media companies. It was probably the largest IT outage. I

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<v S1>think it's probably up for debate and people are probably

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<v S1>still talking about it. So I'm trying to come up

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<v S1>with that. Lessons learned here. But perhaps the biggest one

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<v S1>is around PR. So at first the CEO came out

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<v S1>and basically said something like, don't worry, this isn't a

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<v S1>security problem, and that's not the way to go because

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<v S1>the internet's basically down as a result of you. So

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<v S1>I don't think that was the right stance to take.

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<v S1>He did much better later on. I think his subsequent

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<v S1>posts were much better, and where he eventually landed was great. But, um,

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<v S1>I like what my buddy Chris Hoff said about it,

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<v S1>which was, uh, this was not a security attack against

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<v S1>CrowdStrike or its customers, but an outage caused by a

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<v S1>bad software update. And this was just he was proposing

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<v S1>a possible option to to what was actually said. And

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<v S1>I like this take by Chris. And Chris has been

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<v S1>a CISO, uh, through some pretty rough times. So he

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<v S1>knows the deal. And another thought I had is that

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<v S1>this would be probably much less likely to happen if, say,

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<v S1>everything was Microsoft, right? If the EDR was just part

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<v S1>of Microsoft. Kind of similar to the way that defender

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<v S1>is getting so good that it's almost as good as

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<v S1>any third party option. And I think this is the

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<v S1>natural flow, right? You start off with a cool app idea.

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<v S1>It eventually becomes like a big company, and eventually that

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<v S1>moves into the platform. And you see that with all

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<v S1>sorts of things like location services, antivirus and stuff like that.

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<v S1>So I think that's likely to just happen with EDR

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<v S1>as well. And the whole point is, maybe Microsoft would

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<v S1>have handled that better or avoided it if the testing

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<v S1>and everything like that was more deeply integrated with the

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<v S1>OS itself, because they are the OS and they are

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<v S1>the other one. Now with this, you actually get a

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<v S1>different problem, which is more eggs in fewer baskets, right?

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<v S1>So there's a trade off there. But I feel like

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<v S1>this is the natural trend to basically have everything that's

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<v S1>awesome eventually end up in the platform itself. Got a

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<v S1>new threat actor called Crystal Ray using open source tool

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<v S1>called SSH snake to move laterally across networks, exfiltrate credentials

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<v S1>and deploy crypto mining software. GitHub has warned developers about

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<v S1>a social engineering campaign by Lazarus, which is North Korean group,

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<v S1>and they're targeting developers in cryptocurrency gambling and cybersecurity. And

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<v S1>essentially what they do is kind of what happened with

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<v S1>the Linux attack recently. They gained trust over time, and

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<v S1>then they start submitting malware once you trust them to

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<v S1>submit things. Special thanks to sponsor dropzone. And I wrote

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<v S1>this copy myself here, which I'm not going to read here,

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<v S1>but definitely check out dropzone dot I and check out

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<v S1>a demo there. So not only are they sponsoring here,

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<v S1>but I'm actually an advisor for them as well. That's

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<v S1>how much I believe in their stuff. Palmer Luckey, the

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<v S1>guy who created Oculus, is now making AI weapons for

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<v S1>Ukraine through his company Anduril think it's Anduril that looks

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<v S1>like a Lord of the rings or some kind of

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<v S1>fantasy thing. See if this identifies it. Open source? Nope.

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<v S1>Can't identify it. All right. Yeah. So he started Anduril

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<v S1>to build AI driven weapons like drones and submarines, but

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<v S1>they're now being used by the Pentagon and sent to Ukraine.

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<v S1>China is installing massive amounts of solar and wind energy,

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<v S1>adding ten gigawatts of wind and solar capacity every two weeks,

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<v S1>which is like building five large nuclear plants every week.

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<v S1>And this really, really makes me mad because I, the

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<v S1>US needs to be doing this. Every time I fly.

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<v S1>I fly over wide open country that is getting hit

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<v S1>by the sun. And it's windy down there and it's like, oh,

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<v S1>we don't have enough jobs for people and we don't

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<v S1>have enough energy, and we have way too much open

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<v S1>land being hit by the sun and wind. Why can

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<v S1>we not do this, especially when we know that AI

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<v S1>is going to need all this energy and we just

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<v S1>we need to put people to work and we need

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<v S1>the energy, and we have the wide open space and

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<v S1>we need to build more housing. So it's like this

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<v S1>is the perfect opportunity for a massive, like FDR type event,

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<v S1>which hopefully the next president gets on this because yeah,

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<v S1>I do not like the idea of China having all

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<v S1>this extra energy to do whatever with and us not

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<v S1>having it. Iran and China are increasing their foreign influence efforts,

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<v S1>using social media to stoke discord and promote anti-U.S. narratives.

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<v S1>And this is coming out of Google. They blocked over

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<v S1>10,000 instances of Chinese influence activity in Q1 alone, thanks

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<v S1>to Nudge Security for sponsoring the US Department of Justice,

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<v S1>seize two domains and search nearly 1000 social media accounts

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<v S1>used by Russian actors to spread pro-Kremlin disinformation. Cloudflare says

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<v S1>nearly 7% of all internet traffic is malicious, with DDoS

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<v S1>attacks making up over 37% of all mitigated traffic. And

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<v S1>UK police arrested a 17 year old suspect of being

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<v S1>part of the scattered spider hacking group involved in the

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<v S1>2023 MGM resorts ransomware attack, also known as this is

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<v S1>the person responsible or the group responsible for making Defcon

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<v S1>way farther north this year. It's now in the convention center,

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<v S1>pretty far north of the city, which it looks like

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<v S1>it's going to be pretty cool, especially for the different villages,

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<v S1>because all the villages are going to be together. Looking

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<v S1>forward to that real time video transcription with timestamps. Whisper

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<v S1>Diarization Diarization. Yeah, that's right, Beijing support has seen China

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<v S1>make up ground in the AI race, but it still

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<v S1>has handcuffed a bunch of AI Companies with really tight

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<v S1>restrictions and a lot of these are just purely political.

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<v S1>So they're basically saying this is going to be good

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<v S1>for control and bad for speed. So I think unless

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<v S1>they steal some sort of pinnacle AI tech, which they

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<v S1>probably are going to, as per Leopold and as per

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<v S1>a lot of people talking about this, I think ultimately,

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<v S1>if that doesn't happen, this closed nature of their approach

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<v S1>to AI is going to hurt them, especially relative to

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<v S1>the US, which is just running with scissors, which you

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<v S1>can see because, um, meta just released llama three, uh,

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<v S1>405 B today and is basically giving it out to

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<v S1>the world. And by the way, it's not fully open source,

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<v S1>but it's much more open source than other pinnacle models.

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<v S1>But anyway, that stuff is coming out quickly. And so

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<v S1>the US is innovating very, very fast. And you can't

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<v S1>do that when you're China. And you have to be

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<v S1>very careful what you put in the model. Because if

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<v S1>you train the model on open knowledge, the model is

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<v S1>going to figure out how reality actually is. And China

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<v S1>doesn't want to present the world as it actually is.

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<v S1>They want to present the filtered version of the world,

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<v S1>which means they have to do so much more protection and,

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<v S1>you know, post-training tricks or, um, nuking the knowledge inside

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<v S1>of the, the training data to not have the real

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<v S1>knowledge of the world. That's another way to do it,

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<v S1>to train the model and have it just be worse.

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<v S1>It'll just be worse. It'll be a worse representation of

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<v S1>actual reality. It'll be like, yeah, Tiananmen never happened or whatever. So,

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<v S1>you know, they're not oppressive. The US is bad. You know,

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<v S1>they are the true free society or whatever kind of

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<v S1>garbage they want to, you know, put in there. But

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<v S1>that's extra work for them. That's extra friction for them,

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<v S1>that's going to slow them down. And so that's one thing.

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<v S1>It's going to be slower. The second thing is the

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<v S1>people who want to go fast, who are in China.

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<v S1>So they're super smart and they want to go fast

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<v S1>and they're more like Western oriented. They're just going to leave.

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<v S1>They're going to go go to the US, to Canada,

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<v S1>to EU. Not all of them, of course, but a

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<v S1>lot of them. So ultimately this makes you slower as

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<v S1>China the country. And it also produces more brain drain

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<v S1>because people don't want to be there. Kaiser Permanente is

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<v S1>using AI, wearables and other tech to bring health care

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<v S1>directly to patients. Very AI forward approach from them, which

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<v S1>I really appreciate. It's all in the implementation, of course,

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<v S1>so we'll see how that goes. But I like the

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<v S1>open mind. Sam Altman revealed that OpenAI's Voice Alpha mode

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<v S1>release is coming later this month, and llama three one

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<v S1>just came out today, so you know they really need

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<v S1>to speed that up. And I love what my buddy

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<v S1>Matthew Berman said about this. He's a YouTube AI guy

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<v S1>and he says, let's denormalize companies demoing products earlier than

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<v S1>three months before release. So Microsoft Recall did this. Apple

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<v S1>intelligence did this definitely, because it's not coming out until

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<v S1>like after September, maybe even not until beginning of 2025.

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<v S1>And OpenAI did this big demo on Sora and GPT

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<v S1>for voice, and it's still not out yet. And that

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<v S1>was a long time ago. I mean, that was ancient

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<v S1>history at this point. So yeah, three months, I think

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<v S1>is like the max. You should do that. Don't even

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<v S1>talk about it if it's not coming out. Andre Karpathy

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<v S1>is launching Eureka Labs to create AI teaching assistants for education.

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<v S1>And yeah, this is going to be really cool. They're

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<v S1>basically going to have AI teachers, which is just fantastic.

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<v S1>Google has launched Project Oscar, open source platform that enables

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<v S1>development teams to create AI agents that monitor issues, manage

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<v S1>bugs and handle various aspects of the software lifecycle. Omega's

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<v S1>AI will map how Olympic athletes win. They're using AI

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<v S1>to map how Olympic athletes win by analyzing their full performance,

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<v S1>not just start and finish times. That includes motion sensors

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<v S1>on athletes clothing to capture every detail of their movements.

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<v S1>Compelling us is thinking about new trade restrictions that can

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<v S1>stop Nvidia from selling its HG, H20, AI GPUs to China,

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<v S1>and people are worried. Investors are worried that it could

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<v S1>cost Nvidia like $12 billion in revenue because, you know,

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<v S1>China is big and they buy a lot of stuff

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<v S1>if they're allowed to. But I don't think that'll ultimately

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<v S1>matter for that long. So not too worried. As an

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<v S1>Nvidia stockholder, Beijing scientists have developed the world's smallest and

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<v S1>lightest solar powered drone just 4.21g with a 200 millimeter wingspan.

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<v S1>I want one of these. They can fly nonstop during

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<v S1>the day because the motor is lighter and more efficient,

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<v S1>and because the thing is so light itself, the actual

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<v S1>craft is so light itself. I would love to mess

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<v S1>with that. A Florida yeah, it's usually either Florida man. Yeah,

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<v S1>a Florida man. It's it's either a Florida man or DNS.

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<v S1>They're responsible for all problems. Uh, this person got arrested

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<v S1>for shooting down a Walmart delivery drone claiming it was

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<v S1>spying on him. Typical of Florida men, shooting at drones

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<v S1>is treated as a felony, similar to firing at a

0:12:49.140 --> 0:12:53.790
<v S1>passenger aircraft. That's probably because the bullets keep going and

0:12:53.790 --> 0:12:57.120
<v S1>might hit other things in the air. Unlikely, but turns

0:12:57.120 --> 0:13:00.329
<v S1>out they they don't launch off into orbit or move

0:13:00.330 --> 0:13:03.199
<v S1>towards the sun. They just fall down, potentially on people's

0:13:03.200 --> 0:13:06.020
<v S1>heads or their pets or whatever. Waymo wants to bring

0:13:06.020 --> 0:13:09.920
<v S1>robotaxis to SFO. They already have approval in the city,

0:13:09.920 --> 0:13:12.890
<v S1>but they need separate approval for the airport. And Microsoft

0:13:12.890 --> 0:13:16.310
<v S1>is laid off. Their Dei team, probably one of them.

0:13:16.309 --> 0:13:19.880
<v S1>I assume there's many, many, but laid off its Dei

0:13:19.910 --> 0:13:23.270
<v S1>team saying it's no longer business critical. I'm not sure

0:13:23.270 --> 0:13:26.630
<v S1>if this no longer business critical is an actual quote

0:13:26.630 --> 0:13:30.560
<v S1>from Microsoft leadership. It must be because this article, which

0:13:30.559 --> 0:13:35.900
<v S1>is a Business Insider article, probably quoted that correctly. But okay.

0:13:35.900 --> 0:13:39.710
<v S1>I mean, I think the overall sentiment is worth noting,

0:13:39.710 --> 0:13:41.810
<v S1>which is a lot of people are doing this. A

0:13:41.809 --> 0:13:45.230
<v S1>lot of people are rolling back Dei as like a

0:13:45.230 --> 0:13:49.370
<v S1>prime directive and realizing it should be about merit, which

0:13:49.370 --> 0:13:51.940
<v S1>I think is a good thing. I just don't want

0:13:51.940 --> 0:13:55.570
<v S1>them to go back to just hiring people that look

0:13:55.570 --> 0:13:58.870
<v S1>like you and sound like you, and respond to questions

0:13:58.870 --> 0:14:01.719
<v S1>like you, because then you get rid of diversity, which

0:14:01.720 --> 0:14:06.100
<v S1>is actually bad because you end up with like these,

0:14:06.130 --> 0:14:08.650
<v S1>these blinders. And you have to make sure that your

0:14:08.650 --> 0:14:13.209
<v S1>meritocracy is has a wide enough top of filter, right,

0:14:13.210 --> 0:14:15.209
<v S1>top of funnel. So you want to make sure you're

0:14:15.210 --> 0:14:19.440
<v S1>getting everyone there into this meritocracy filter and not just

0:14:19.440 --> 0:14:22.920
<v S1>looking for certain types of people because you think they, um,

0:14:22.920 --> 0:14:25.650
<v S1>they come out of the bottom of the filter more often. Right?

0:14:25.650 --> 0:14:30.150
<v S1>So I think the concept of Dei is 100% correct,

0:14:30.150 --> 0:14:34.260
<v S1>and we need to 100% keep doing it. The implementation

0:14:34.260 --> 0:14:36.960
<v S1>that we've done over the last few years has been bad,

0:14:36.960 --> 0:14:40.610
<v S1>and it's good to see that rolling back. Andreessen Horowitz

0:14:40.610 --> 0:14:43.460
<v S1>argues that bad government policies are now the biggest threat

0:14:43.460 --> 0:14:46.400
<v S1>to tech startups, which they call little tech. And they

0:14:46.400 --> 0:14:49.940
<v S1>basically launched a manifesto about little tech. And I did

0:14:49.940 --> 0:14:52.670
<v S1>an analysis of it in fabric. Probably should have included that.

0:14:52.670 --> 0:14:57.500
<v S1>But it's basically pro startup stuff that's bottom line, which

0:14:57.500 --> 0:15:00.530
<v S1>makes sense because they're a VC. Essentially, Google is shutting

0:15:00.530 --> 0:15:04.580
<v S1>down its URL shortening service. so any links created with

0:15:04.580 --> 0:15:07.040
<v S1>it will stop working. If you have any important links

0:15:07.040 --> 0:15:09.620
<v S1>using the service, you want to migrate them. I'm pretty

0:15:09.620 --> 0:15:12.980
<v S1>sure Google will soon sell YouTube to like Johnson and

0:15:12.980 --> 0:15:16.160
<v S1>Johnson and Gmail to Luxottica, and then go full speed

0:15:16.160 --> 0:15:20.720
<v S1>into the what the f are we doing business? Whatever

0:15:20.720 --> 0:15:25.100
<v S1>business that is, it's the single most perplexing company like

0:15:25.100 --> 0:15:27.460
<v S1>I've ever seen. They were first on j'en ai. They

0:15:27.460 --> 0:15:30.970
<v S1>wrote the paper for Transformers, and now they're completely lapped

0:15:30.970 --> 0:15:34.600
<v S1>by not just OpenAI, but anthropic as well. And now

0:15:34.600 --> 0:15:39.520
<v S1>they're being lapped by meta, by meta in an open

0:15:39.520 --> 0:15:42.280
<v S1>source model. How are you like fifth place when you

0:15:42.280 --> 0:15:44.590
<v S1>have all the people and all the money and you

0:15:44.590 --> 0:15:47.740
<v S1>actually invented the tech? They're like the opposite of Cloudflare,

0:15:47.740 --> 0:15:51.010
<v S1>which does small things really well that add up over

0:15:51.010 --> 0:15:54.910
<v S1>time because Google is like slowly dismantling everything. It's getting

0:15:54.910 --> 0:15:56.680
<v S1>rid of all the best things that it has. The

0:15:56.680 --> 0:16:00.070
<v S1>main thing Google is growing is the Google graveyard. Such

0:16:00.070 --> 0:16:03.610
<v S1>a colossal waste of money and talent. And these failures

0:16:03.610 --> 0:16:06.340
<v S1>should be studied for centuries as an example of what

0:16:06.340 --> 0:16:10.270
<v S1>happens when you don't lead with UX focused product management.

0:16:10.270 --> 0:16:13.900
<v S1>Product management, like being in charge, like thinking about the

0:16:13.900 --> 0:16:17.220
<v S1>customer and the total package and the total experience of

0:16:17.220 --> 0:16:20.160
<v S1>this product or service that you're launching, as opposed to

0:16:20.190 --> 0:16:23.610
<v S1>throw shit at the wall. Focused engineering and engineering is

0:16:23.610 --> 0:16:26.820
<v S1>in charge of product. It makes no sense whatsoever. Like

0:16:26.820 --> 0:16:30.600
<v S1>like it is the most inefficient, like large organization I

0:16:30.600 --> 0:16:33.600
<v S1>can imagine that I've ever seen. All right, and Google rant,

0:16:33.600 --> 0:16:36.690
<v S1>I need a section just for Google rant. Humans. Iran

0:16:36.690 --> 0:16:40.010
<v S1>backed Houthi rebels said they were behind a drone attack

0:16:40.010 --> 0:16:44.060
<v S1>on Tel Aviv, killed one person and injured several others.

0:16:44.090 --> 0:16:47.720
<v S1>USA household income distribution by state. A Reddit user shared

0:16:47.720 --> 0:16:51.620
<v S1>a detailed visualization of household income distribution across different states

0:16:51.620 --> 0:16:55.040
<v S1>in the US. New meta analysis shows that tooth brushing

0:16:55.040 --> 0:16:58.880
<v S1>can tooth brushing. Not heard it like that kind of verb.

0:16:58.880 --> 0:17:02.690
<v S1>Is that tooth brushing? It's a gerund. Anyway, brushing your

0:17:02.690 --> 0:17:07.690
<v S1>teeth can significantly reduce hospital acquired pneumonia in ICU patients.

0:17:07.690 --> 0:17:12.070
<v S1>Simple intervention could lead to 17,000 fewer deaths each year.

0:17:12.070 --> 0:17:14.770
<v S1>This is a this is a big thing I've realized recently. Um,

0:17:15.010 --> 0:17:18.250
<v S1>or just gotten the religion on, which is all the

0:17:18.250 --> 0:17:22.060
<v S1>bacteria like in your teeth and gums, that's related to

0:17:22.060 --> 0:17:25.360
<v S1>inflammation in the body. It's also related to the heart

0:17:25.359 --> 0:17:28.980
<v S1>being in really bad shape. So, uh, really important that

0:17:28.980 --> 0:17:32.490
<v S1>you kind of treat that infection in your mouth or

0:17:32.490 --> 0:17:35.550
<v S1>the potential for infection in your mouth, like having a

0:17:35.550 --> 0:17:38.189
<v S1>disease throughout your entire body. And they're talking about it

0:17:38.190 --> 0:17:41.400
<v S1>going into the the brain as well, and just being

0:17:41.400 --> 0:17:45.900
<v S1>this state of disease in your body and really, really

0:17:45.900 --> 0:17:49.350
<v S1>focused on the mouth. So I've upped my game around

0:17:49.350 --> 0:17:53.070
<v S1>that significantly as a result. That was probably like a

0:17:53.070 --> 0:17:56.250
<v S1>year ago or whatever. Young adulthood is no longer one

0:17:56.250 --> 0:17:59.969
<v S1>of life's happiest times. Research shows that young adulthood is

0:17:59.970 --> 0:18:02.490
<v S1>now one of the most unhappy times in life, with

0:18:02.490 --> 0:18:07.560
<v S1>a significant rise in despair among people, especially women from

0:18:07.560 --> 0:18:10.980
<v S1>18 to 25. And if you've been following my stuff,

0:18:10.980 --> 0:18:13.590
<v S1>I have lots of reasons for that which we will

0:18:13.590 --> 0:18:16.970
<v S1>not go into most of Gen Z is using TikTok

0:18:16.970 --> 0:18:21.950
<v S1>for health advice. 56% are using TikTok for wellness, diet

0:18:21.950 --> 0:18:25.550
<v S1>and fitness, 34% are relying on it as their main

0:18:25.550 --> 0:18:29.780
<v S1>source of health information. About a third ask HN, which

0:18:29.780 --> 0:18:33.740
<v S1>is Hacker News every day, feels like prison. A mid-thirties

0:18:33.770 --> 0:18:35.750
<v S1>guy in tech feels trapped in a 9 to 5

0:18:35.750 --> 0:18:38.540
<v S1>job he no longer cares about, and is struggling to

0:18:38.540 --> 0:18:41.600
<v S1>build a business on the side. This is the reason

0:18:41.600 --> 0:18:44.810
<v S1>I do unsupervised learning. This is the mission of unsupervised

0:18:44.810 --> 0:18:49.460
<v S1>learning is giving people mental models and frames and ways

0:18:49.460 --> 0:18:54.590
<v S1>to think about the world, and actual methodologies for getting

0:18:54.590 --> 0:18:58.460
<v S1>true meaning in their lives. This problem right here is

0:18:58.460 --> 0:19:01.310
<v S1>pretty much the whole game, and the way I plays

0:19:01.310 --> 0:19:04.010
<v S1>into that is I think AI is going to make

0:19:04.010 --> 0:19:06.990
<v S1>it worse as it removes jobs before we have the

0:19:06.990 --> 0:19:09.899
<v S1>ability to have it increase jobs. There's going to be

0:19:09.900 --> 0:19:13.140
<v S1>that that, uh, chasm in the middle. When that happens,

0:19:13.140 --> 0:19:16.350
<v S1>when the jobs come away, this meaning crisis is going

0:19:16.350 --> 0:19:19.530
<v S1>to get way worse. And that's what we are here for.

0:19:19.560 --> 0:19:21.690
<v S1>All right. Got a cool button here. Read the full

0:19:21.690 --> 0:19:25.590
<v S1>newsletter online. Appreciate the team doing that. Ideas. Sam Altman

0:19:25.619 --> 0:19:30.030
<v S1>is simultaneously building AGI and doing big studies on UBI.

0:19:30.060 --> 0:19:33.090
<v S1>Super obvious what he's doing, in fact. Oh, this is

0:19:33.090 --> 0:19:35.400
<v S1>kind of hot off the press here, because I just

0:19:35.400 --> 0:19:38.250
<v S1>did this analysis with fabric, and I saw a tweet

0:19:38.250 --> 0:19:42.150
<v S1>thread about this as well, the UBI study that came out.

0:19:42.150 --> 0:19:44.910
<v S1>This is not in the newsletter. This just happened this morning.

0:19:44.910 --> 0:19:48.510
<v S1>This UBI study that OpenAI put out, which was funded

0:19:48.510 --> 0:19:52.439
<v S1>by essentially Altman. It turns out at least one of

0:19:52.440 --> 0:19:54.890
<v S1>the interpretations and some of the manual work that I

0:19:54.890 --> 0:19:58.520
<v S1>just did doing AI analysis on the results, it did

0:19:58.520 --> 0:20:01.010
<v S1>not increase a lot of the things that they were

0:20:01.010 --> 0:20:04.730
<v S1>hoping their spinning it as a very positive outcome, and

0:20:04.730 --> 0:20:08.720
<v S1>I'm sure they said there is some minor positive outcomes,

0:20:08.720 --> 0:20:11.510
<v S1>but in general it did not encourage people to be

0:20:11.510 --> 0:20:14.330
<v S1>more ambitious. It did not encourage people to go and

0:20:14.330 --> 0:20:17.810
<v S1>get more work. It didn't do that. So it looks

0:20:17.810 --> 0:20:20.440
<v S1>a bit bad now. I think we need to do

0:20:20.440 --> 0:20:24.430
<v S1>more analysis to say for sure that UBI is not

0:20:24.430 --> 0:20:27.070
<v S1>going to massively help, um, or it's not going to

0:20:27.070 --> 0:20:31.750
<v S1>help people be more ambitious or more creative or more productive,

0:20:31.750 --> 0:20:34.240
<v S1>which which I think is the hope. The hope is

0:20:34.240 --> 0:20:37.480
<v S1>that or the idea here is that ambitious people are

0:20:37.480 --> 0:20:39.940
<v S1>lucky people who have the time and energy to go

0:20:39.940 --> 0:20:42.750
<v S1>and be ambitious, and that when you look at people

0:20:42.750 --> 0:20:46.619
<v S1>who are struggling and they're not ambitious, it's likely because

0:20:46.619 --> 0:20:49.050
<v S1>they have too many jobs, you know, they got too

0:20:49.050 --> 0:20:51.540
<v S1>much drama in their lives. There's too much going on.

0:20:51.540 --> 0:20:53.910
<v S1>And if that were to not be the case, if

0:20:53.910 --> 0:20:56.700
<v S1>they were, we were able to reduce their stress. They

0:20:56.700 --> 0:20:59.580
<v S1>would become just like the go getters and just like

0:20:59.580 --> 0:21:04.800
<v S1>the ambitious and smart people. And this study, being so large,

0:21:04.800 --> 0:21:07.800
<v S1>has the ability to undo that narrative a bit and

0:21:07.800 --> 0:21:10.949
<v S1>basically say that there's a chance here we need to

0:21:10.950 --> 0:21:14.160
<v S1>do full analysis of this, but there's a chance here

0:21:14.160 --> 0:21:17.879
<v S1>that what it uncovers is that no ambitious people have

0:21:17.880 --> 0:21:21.630
<v S1>something else. They have this ambition and drive that lets

0:21:21.630 --> 0:21:26.429
<v S1>them thrive almost despite whatever is going on. So if

0:21:26.430 --> 0:21:28.169
<v S1>they have lots of burdens on them, they're going to

0:21:28.170 --> 0:21:31.070
<v S1>find a way through. Unless they're overwhelming, of course, But

0:21:31.070 --> 0:21:34.100
<v S1>given the same amount of burden, people with this attribute

0:21:34.100 --> 0:21:37.729
<v S1>of like drive and self-discipline and ambition, they're just going

0:21:37.730 --> 0:21:39.290
<v S1>to crush it. They're going to find a way to

0:21:39.290 --> 0:21:42.170
<v S1>crush it. And the whole narrative for this UBI thing

0:21:42.170 --> 0:21:45.410
<v S1>was that, no, everyone has that. And I think I'm

0:21:45.410 --> 0:21:48.200
<v S1>old enough at this point to realize, no, not everyone

0:21:48.200 --> 0:21:52.010
<v S1>has special beans or special magic. It really is a

0:21:52.010 --> 0:21:55.540
<v S1>small portion of, you know, society who is in the

0:21:55.540 --> 0:21:58.780
<v S1>top 10% of a given thing. Um, I mean, just

0:21:58.780 --> 0:22:03.040
<v S1>by the numbers, like only 10% can be in the 10%, right?

0:22:03.040 --> 0:22:06.580
<v S1>So I think first we need to confirm that that

0:22:06.580 --> 0:22:08.890
<v S1>this is what it's saying. But even if it is

0:22:08.890 --> 0:22:11.889
<v S1>saying the worst possible thing, which is no, this doesn't

0:22:11.890 --> 0:22:15.670
<v S1>actually make people more ambitious. It doesn't really matter. We

0:22:15.670 --> 0:22:18.190
<v S1>still have to keep looking for the thing that is

0:22:18.190 --> 0:22:20.640
<v S1>the ambition. We still have to find the source of

0:22:20.640 --> 0:22:23.820
<v S1>this thing that is so valuable to us, which is

0:22:23.820 --> 0:22:28.260
<v S1>people who are driven and ambitious. Now, if it's genetic, well,

0:22:28.260 --> 0:22:31.979
<v S1>then I don't care, right? We're not we're not going

0:22:31.980 --> 0:22:35.430
<v S1>to be changing genetics, right. Any time soon anyway. So

0:22:35.430 --> 0:22:38.189
<v S1>it's like, I don't care if we find that there's

0:22:38.190 --> 0:22:41.670
<v S1>more ambition in this group or less ambition in that group,

0:22:41.670 --> 0:22:45.270
<v S1>because those numbers are likely to be so tiny compared

0:22:45.270 --> 0:22:47.489
<v S1>to what we can control. You know, even if they

0:22:47.490 --> 0:22:49.680
<v S1>exist and they might not even exist. It might be

0:22:49.680 --> 0:22:52.679
<v S1>all environment. But I mean, this is a three year study.

0:22:52.680 --> 0:22:56.010
<v S1>This doesn't control, like what went into their their upbringing

0:22:56.010 --> 0:22:58.950
<v S1>and their childhood and everything. Um, because if you look

0:22:58.950 --> 0:23:03.060
<v S1>at cultures where they have this really, really strong drive

0:23:03.060 --> 0:23:06.540
<v S1>and ambition and everything, it's part of their actual culture.

0:23:06.750 --> 0:23:08.780
<v S1>This is like they pop out of the womb and

0:23:08.780 --> 0:23:11.900
<v S1>it's like, pick your college, right? You were told from

0:23:11.900 --> 0:23:15.230
<v S1>a very early age that you must be producing. It's

0:23:15.230 --> 0:23:18.470
<v S1>your responsibility to give back to community. All your, you know,

0:23:18.470 --> 0:23:21.740
<v S1>family members are looking up to you. You know you

0:23:21.740 --> 0:23:26.240
<v S1>owe us, you owe society quality outputs, and you must

0:23:26.240 --> 0:23:30.350
<v S1>work hard to create those that cultural influence and power,

0:23:30.350 --> 0:23:32.560
<v S1>plus all the peers that come with it. Plus then

0:23:32.560 --> 0:23:34.929
<v S1>you go to nice colleges and they all believe the

0:23:34.930 --> 0:23:38.619
<v S1>same thing. That entire mechanism is what we need to

0:23:38.619 --> 0:23:41.500
<v S1>give to the entire world. Okay, that that is the

0:23:41.500 --> 0:23:45.460
<v S1>thing that I believe is creating ambitious people. So you

0:23:45.460 --> 0:23:48.430
<v S1>do a three year study on UBI, you find out

0:23:48.430 --> 0:23:52.750
<v S1>that doesn't make people into those people. Fine, fine. Something

0:23:52.750 --> 0:23:56.850
<v S1>is and I believe it's that entire culture as a package.

0:23:56.850 --> 0:23:59.879
<v S1>And that's the thing that we need to give to everyone.

0:23:59.880 --> 0:24:02.909
<v S1>That's our responsibility. And if the world were more like that,

0:24:02.910 --> 0:24:06.600
<v S1>the world would be better. First of all, that automatically

0:24:06.600 --> 0:24:09.210
<v S1>fixes crime. If you're trying to build things and doing

0:24:09.210 --> 0:24:14.459
<v S1>things and you're busy, that automatically fixes literacy crime, like

0:24:14.460 --> 0:24:18.179
<v S1>so many different things that are a problem. So I

0:24:18.180 --> 0:24:20.970
<v S1>just I don't see this as too negative. I see

0:24:20.970 --> 0:24:23.699
<v S1>it as a little bit negative, but positive in the

0:24:23.700 --> 0:24:27.540
<v S1>sense that it's going to uncover the real issues, which

0:24:27.540 --> 0:24:34.170
<v S1>is how to propagate successful mental models and frames, um,

0:24:34.170 --> 0:24:37.710
<v S1>in a wider scope across wider groups of people across

0:24:37.710 --> 0:24:41.129
<v S1>the entire planet. And I think that's the problem we

0:24:41.130 --> 0:24:45.170
<v S1>need to focus on and move towards solving. Okay, some

0:24:45.440 --> 0:24:49.010
<v S1>standalone ideas here. And I just put the tweets in

0:24:49.010 --> 0:24:52.369
<v S1>here because basically when I have ideas I, I um,

0:24:52.490 --> 0:24:56.210
<v S1>post them on X and then come back to them

0:24:56.450 --> 0:24:59.930
<v S1>to distill into the idea section here. So first one,

0:24:59.930 --> 0:25:05.119
<v S1>what if cannabis? Cannabis, not cannabis is soma from the

0:25:05.119 --> 0:25:08.929
<v S1>Brave New world. So it makes people comfortable with mediocrity,

0:25:08.930 --> 0:25:12.460
<v S1>makes people more accepting of whatever they're handed, and makes

0:25:12.460 --> 0:25:16.150
<v S1>people less likely to change their situation. And legalization is

0:25:16.150 --> 0:25:20.470
<v S1>actually happening coincident with the rise of AI, which is

0:25:20.470 --> 0:25:23.080
<v S1>pretty cool. And I don't actually think that's a conspiracy.

0:25:23.200 --> 0:25:25.390
<v S1>Just to keep in mind, I think they're just both

0:25:25.390 --> 0:25:28.180
<v S1>happening at the same time. Conspiracy culture. Speaking of that

0:25:28.180 --> 0:25:31.450
<v S1>is getting stupid at this point. Um, yeah, bad thing happens.

0:25:31.450 --> 0:25:34.359
<v S1>It must be deep state. Um, Biden pulls out of

0:25:34.359 --> 0:25:38.379
<v S1>the race. Must be deep state. I saw a reply

0:25:38.380 --> 0:25:41.530
<v S1>to my my post here. Somebody said the number of

0:25:41.530 --> 0:25:44.770
<v S1>people believing the world is like that, where they see

0:25:44.800 --> 0:25:48.340
<v S1>deep state and everything is inversely proportional to the number

0:25:48.340 --> 0:25:51.970
<v S1>of people who have worked in a very large organization.

0:25:51.970 --> 0:25:54.640
<v S1>And I think that is so smart, because when you

0:25:54.640 --> 0:25:57.070
<v S1>work in these very large organizations or in the government

0:25:57.070 --> 0:26:02.399
<v S1>or whatever, you just see constant stupidity, just constant stupidity

0:26:02.400 --> 0:26:06.150
<v S1>performed by really smart people. And the fact that they're

0:26:06.150 --> 0:26:09.210
<v S1>in these large groups with lots of bureaucracy just makes

0:26:09.210 --> 0:26:12.689
<v S1>the whole thing stupid and inefficient. So you see enough

0:26:12.690 --> 0:26:15.869
<v S1>of that. And then when you see a botched Secret

0:26:15.869 --> 0:26:20.219
<v S1>Service thing or whatever, you're like, yeah, the world is stupid.

0:26:20.220 --> 0:26:23.659
<v S1>People are stupid. Like, where's I'm surprised anything works, right?

0:26:23.660 --> 0:26:26.600
<v S1>That's the eventual attitude you get after you work at

0:26:26.600 --> 0:26:29.750
<v S1>enough of these large organizations. And this one here, I'm

0:26:29.750 --> 0:26:32.240
<v S1>going to save, because this one is like, I'm going

0:26:32.240 --> 0:26:36.530
<v S1>to do a whole essay and video on this one. Essentially,

0:26:36.530 --> 0:26:41.179
<v S1>it is the use of AI for security on a

0:26:41.180 --> 0:26:44.240
<v S1>whole bunch of intractable problems. And I believe this is

0:26:44.240 --> 0:26:46.159
<v S1>the future of AI and security, which is why I'm

0:26:46.160 --> 0:26:47.929
<v S1>going to turn it into its own thing. And the

0:26:47.930 --> 0:26:50.330
<v S1>future of security and risk management is to have them

0:26:50.330 --> 0:26:53.540
<v S1>disappear into SOPs. This one, I'm also going to break

0:26:53.540 --> 0:26:56.840
<v S1>out into a separate thing and got someone posted here.

0:26:56.869 --> 0:26:59.930
<v S1>A great tribe of Silicon Valley is making a bid

0:26:59.930 --> 0:27:03.379
<v S1>to take over the US. Vance is Thiel's man. Musk

0:27:03.380 --> 0:27:06.350
<v S1>and Andreessen Horowitz are backing him. He will be the

0:27:06.350 --> 0:27:09.890
<v S1>nominee in four years as an admin, steered by Thiel

0:27:09.890 --> 0:27:13.180
<v S1>and Musk. Right when AGI is due and Starship goes

0:27:13.180 --> 0:27:17.260
<v S1>to Mars. Incredible timeline. And basically I just said, hmm, interesting.

0:27:17.290 --> 0:27:21.879
<v S1>I'll be watching this closely. I love looking at movements

0:27:21.880 --> 0:27:27.100
<v S1>like this. Like, what is Silicon Valley thinking? What are

0:27:27.100 --> 0:27:30.280
<v S1>the top tier people? What are their political views? Are

0:27:30.280 --> 0:27:34.209
<v S1>they ambitious? Are they pessimistic? Are they optimistic? What are

0:27:34.210 --> 0:27:36.690
<v S1>they doing? What are they thinking? Who are they backing?

0:27:36.690 --> 0:27:40.050
<v S1>What are their arguments? I want to know all this stuff.

0:27:40.050 --> 0:27:42.600
<v S1>And I've got a buddy who is so good at

0:27:42.600 --> 0:27:45.270
<v S1>tracking this stuff and just knows everything about this. And

0:27:45.270 --> 0:27:49.380
<v S1>I go walking with him, um, very often and have

0:27:49.380 --> 0:27:52.379
<v S1>dinner and just get into these great discussions about, like,

0:27:52.380 --> 0:27:56.430
<v S1>all these different zeitgeists happening. And it's just it's just fantastic.

0:27:56.430 --> 0:27:58.320
<v S1>And it doesn't mean I have to agree with any

0:27:58.320 --> 0:28:01.280
<v S1>of them. But hopefully if I capture enough of them

0:28:01.280 --> 0:28:04.340
<v S1>and I understand them enough, it helps me triangulate and

0:28:04.340 --> 0:28:07.610
<v S1>build my own view. All right. Discovery lemma new recon

0:28:07.609 --> 0:28:11.120
<v S1>security tool that runs via Lambda in your browser. Responder

0:28:11.119 --> 0:28:16.640
<v S1>honeypot for responder tricks attackers into revealing their presence. Exo

0:28:16.640 --> 0:28:20.330
<v S1>run your own AI cluster at home on everyday devices.

0:28:20.330 --> 0:28:23.920
<v S1>Why aren't we using SSH for everything? By Shaso. Grey

0:28:23.920 --> 0:28:27.820
<v S1>Swan AI specializes in AI safety and security tools to

0:28:27.820 --> 0:28:32.950
<v S1>assess and safeguard AI deployments. And Costco's Apocalypse bucket. They're

0:28:32.950 --> 0:28:36.220
<v S1>selling a 25 year shelf life emergency food kit called

0:28:36.220 --> 0:28:41.770
<v S1>the Apocalypse Bucket for $80. Includes 150 freeze dried and

0:28:41.770 --> 0:28:46.660
<v S1>dehydrated meal servings ranging from teriyaki rice to apple cinnamon cereal.

0:28:46.660 --> 0:28:49.450
<v S1>I bought three of these just in case things get

0:28:49.450 --> 0:28:53.170
<v S1>crazy end of this year and into next year. Plus

0:28:53.170 --> 0:28:56.170
<v S1>I'm in California. Lots of earthquakes and we're waiting for

0:28:56.170 --> 0:28:59.200
<v S1>the big one. All right, recommendation of the week. Don't

0:28:59.200 --> 0:29:03.460
<v S1>ask what someone's politics are because that's likely just to

0:29:03.460 --> 0:29:06.790
<v S1>get gross. They'll just respond with a bunch of emotional things.

0:29:06.790 --> 0:29:09.400
<v S1>They will trigger you emotionally and it will be a

0:29:09.400 --> 0:29:13.620
<v S1>complete mess. Instead, ask them what their ideal world looks like,

0:29:13.620 --> 0:29:17.010
<v S1>including questions like these. Are there multiple religions? Are there

0:29:17.010 --> 0:29:20.790
<v S1>multiple ethnic groups? Are people free to love whoever they want?

0:29:20.820 --> 0:29:22.920
<v S1>Do we all live together? What are the most famous

0:29:22.920 --> 0:29:25.530
<v S1>people in the world? Who gets paid the most? Who

0:29:25.530 --> 0:29:28.200
<v S1>gets paid the least? What happens to someone if they're

0:29:28.200 --> 0:29:31.350
<v S1>truly disabled and they cannot work? What happens to someone

0:29:31.350 --> 0:29:34.260
<v S1>if they're too lazy to work? What happens to someone

0:29:34.260 --> 0:29:37.070
<v S1>who is addicted to drugs? I think many of our

0:29:37.070 --> 0:29:40.850
<v S1>disagreements are about how and not what. Because I know

0:29:40.850 --> 0:29:44.120
<v S1>a lot of people who support Trump, for example, who

0:29:44.120 --> 0:29:47.479
<v S1>would say, yeah, you can absolutely be gay. Yeah, you

0:29:47.480 --> 0:29:52.190
<v S1>can absolutely be transgender. No problem. Love to everyone. Yes,

0:29:52.190 --> 0:29:55.730
<v S1>there absolutely can be other religions. Yes, all the ethnic

0:29:55.730 --> 0:29:59.030
<v S1>groups should live together. Yes, there should be a safety net.

0:29:59.030 --> 0:30:03.970
<v S1>I literally know multiple Trump supporters who voted for Trump twice,

0:30:03.970 --> 0:30:06.760
<v S1>who believe all four of these. You can be gay,

0:30:06.760 --> 0:30:10.270
<v S1>you can be transgender, you can be other religions. We

0:30:10.270 --> 0:30:12.910
<v S1>should all live together. We should all get along, and

0:30:12.910 --> 0:30:15.940
<v S1>there should be a social safety net. Okay, so if

0:30:15.940 --> 0:30:17.590
<v S1>you're on the left and you hear someone on the

0:30:17.590 --> 0:30:19.630
<v S1>right say those things, or you're on the right and

0:30:19.630 --> 0:30:21.940
<v S1>you hear the left say, you know some other stuff,

0:30:21.940 --> 0:30:25.750
<v S1>this is an opportunity for a real conversation. Both sides

0:30:25.750 --> 0:30:29.739
<v S1>should describe what they view as an ideal version of

0:30:29.740 --> 0:30:32.350
<v S1>the world. And I would argue to you that if

0:30:32.350 --> 0:30:36.040
<v S1>you both start with that, it's going to look very similar.

0:30:36.040 --> 0:30:40.780
<v S1>I think roughly the center 80 or 70% of the

0:30:40.780 --> 0:30:43.870
<v S1>country is going to build that model, and it's mostly

0:30:43.870 --> 0:30:46.420
<v S1>going to look the same, and it's mostly going to

0:30:46.420 --> 0:30:49.480
<v S1>include those 4 or 5 things that I just mentioned.

0:30:49.480 --> 0:30:52.870
<v S1>So if you had a smart moderator in between, you

0:30:52.870 --> 0:30:55.000
<v S1>could look at these two people and be like, okay,

0:30:55.000 --> 0:30:57.250
<v S1>let me get this straight. You think there should be

0:30:57.250 --> 0:31:02.320
<v S1>multiple ethnic groups and religions and gender identities, and we

0:31:02.320 --> 0:31:05.500
<v S1>should all work together and all live together and be

0:31:05.500 --> 0:31:07.900
<v S1>happy together and not infringe on each other. Is that

0:31:07.900 --> 0:31:10.690
<v S1>is that correct? And both of them say yes. Do

0:31:10.690 --> 0:31:12.880
<v S1>you realize how much progress that is? Do you realize

0:31:12.880 --> 0:31:16.190
<v S1>how much we need that conversation to take place right now,

0:31:16.190 --> 0:31:19.850
<v S1>in the middle of 2024, going into this crazy election cycle?

0:31:19.850 --> 0:31:22.430
<v S1>We absolutely need that. So that's where you should start

0:31:22.430 --> 0:31:25.490
<v S1>the conversation. Don't start with like, hey, what are your politics?

0:31:25.490 --> 0:31:27.770
<v S1>Because they're they're going to go to an emotional hot

0:31:27.770 --> 0:31:30.110
<v S1>button that's going to trigger both of you. Instead, talk

0:31:30.110 --> 0:31:32.570
<v S1>about the ideal. And when you realize you agree on

0:31:32.570 --> 0:31:35.600
<v S1>the ideal, now we have a how problem okay, now

0:31:35.600 --> 0:31:39.430
<v S1>we have a transition problem. Cool. That's much more tractable

0:31:39.430 --> 0:31:43.270
<v S1>and much more discussable than disagreeing on where we're supposed

0:31:43.270 --> 0:31:46.030
<v S1>to go. All right. In the aphorism of the week,

0:31:46.030 --> 0:31:49.990
<v S1>silence is a fence around wisdom. Silence is a fence

0:31:49.990 --> 0:31:55.480
<v S1>around wisdom. German proverb unsupervised learning is produced and edited

0:31:55.480 --> 0:31:59.920
<v S1>by Daniel Miller on a Neumann U87 AI microphone using Hindenburg.

0:32:00.400 --> 0:32:03.220
<v S1>Intro and outro music is by Zomby with the Y,

0:32:03.940 --> 0:32:06.190
<v S1>and to get the text and links from this episode,

0:32:06.190 --> 0:32:08.470
<v S1>sign up for the newsletter version of the show at

0:32:08.470 --> 0:32:13.180
<v S1>Daniel miessler.com/newsletter. We'll see you next time.