S1: Are you prepared for whatever shitstorm may hit your desk
S1: during the workday? Otto Max has your back. Check out
S1: the brand new autonomous IT podcast. Listen in as various
S1: IT experts discuss the latest Patch Tuesday releases, mitigation tips,
S1: and custom automations to help with CVE remediations make new
S1: work friends. Listen now to the autonomous IT podcast on Spotify, Apple,
S1: or wherever you tune in to podcasts. Welcome to Unsupervised Learning,
S1: a security, AI, and meaning focused podcast that looks at
S1: how best to thrive as humans in a post AI world.
S1: It combines original ideas, analysis, and mental models to bring
S1: not just the news, but why it matters and how
S1: to respond. All right, welcome to unsupervised learning. This is
S1: Daniel Miessler. All right. Episode 441 441 of these. That's
S1: pretty insane. Okay. Friend of UL Ray ulnar is looking
S1: for a new position as a systems engineer. You should
S1: reach out to Ray directly and got his LinkedIn there.
S1: He's one of the best members of UL and, uh, super,
S1: super smart, super kind and very competent as well as
S1: you could see from his LinkedIn. And, uh, he just
S1: came onto the market. So I would grab him before
S1: he goes, added a couple of new levels to the
S1: AGI definitions. So if we click through there and we
S1: go down here, here are the definitions or the levels.
S1: So AGI one is better but with significant drawbacks. Two
S1: is competent but imperfect. Three is a full $80,000 a
S1: year white collar worker replacement four okay, this is where
S1: it gets cool. for is a world class employee such
S1: as Andre Karpathy or Jeff Dean. So imagine 1% of 1%
S1: and vision creativity programming, execution ability. This is like top
S1: top tier. So imagine there's only like 100 or 1000
S1: of these employees on the whole entire planet at any
S1: given time. Wherever you want to set that bar, it's
S1: something like that. Level five is a pinnacle human employee. Okay,
S1: so this is somebody like the smartest person who's ever lived.
S1: So a John von Neumann or an Isaac Newton or
S1: a Richard Feynman or a Claude Shannon. So what this
S1: offers over tier four is the ability to invent completely
S1: new things when they don't exist, or see and explain
S1: the world in a completely new way. So Newton didn't
S1: have calculus, so he invented it. That's always like, astounded me.
S1: Feynman was a supreme teacher, like a lot of people
S1: consider him to be one of the best teachers ever.
S1: Von Neumann innovated in mathematics, physics, engineering, game theory, like
S1: tons of stuff, and Claude Shannon gave us information theory,
S1: the foundations of cryptography, and a million other things. So basically,
S1: at this level, you not only have the creativity and
S1: execution of a top, like, whatever, only 100 or 1000
S1: in the entire world at any given moment. But you
S1: also have the once in a generation level innovation capabilities.
S1: And once you're at Pinnacle Human, okay, the level after
S1: that is where I cross over into ASI, which is
S1: defined logically as a level of general AI that's smarter
S1: and more capable than any human that's ever lived. And
S1: that's the reason I added these, is so we have
S1: a smoother transition from the end of AGI right into
S1: the beginning of ASI one. Right. And that's where we
S1: have right here. ASI one. So that was that. Uh,
S1: I feel like Apple Notes is my actual operating system
S1: and Mac OS is just the window manager, just, uh,
S1: stupid jokes. Um, how many notes do I have in
S1: Apple Notes? I'm going to look right now to try
S1: to emphasize this point. 3867 Apple notes my operating system.
S1: Not really, but you see what I'm saying? All right,
S1: let's get into it. Okay. So substrate I've been thinking
S1: about and working on this one for months now and
S1: finally announced it. And actually there's a separate whole substrate
S1: video coming out very soon you should check out. So yeah,
S1: go look at that when it comes out. I'm not
S1: going to go into detail here because I just did
S1: in that other piece, got a new piece on dynamic
S1: content summaries and how I think they're going to be
S1: the way we view content in the future. Essentially, the
S1: idea here is that rather than get raw content from
S1: different places, I will produce content for us dynamic. So
S1: imagine that we love to see Richard Feynman explain things
S1: to us. Well, anytime anything complex happens in the world,
S1: we're going to have a video. It's going to be
S1: a YouTube video or something like a YouTube video, and
S1: it's going to be Richard Feynman fully deepfaked, fully Deepfaked.
S1: It looks exactly like Richard Feynman. And he's actually got
S1: a piece of chalk, and he's actually in his Caltech
S1: classroom with a giant whiteboard, and he's dynamically whiteboarding out
S1: this concept to you and explaining with his voice and
S1: his jokes and his humor or whatever. And he's explaining
S1: everything to you. In fact, it might be like if
S1: it's science related or complexity related or whatever, something Feynman ish,
S1: then use Feynman. But maybe you've got this other like
S1: cute influencer girl who you like to explain, like modern
S1: cultural topics or whatever, and she is deepfaked to do
S1: that for you there. And of course, there's going to
S1: be all sorts of considerations around like, well, do they
S1: have permission to do that? And a lot of people
S1: will say, yeah, go ahead, do it. As long as
S1: it falls within these criteria. Some people won't care. They'll
S1: just deepfake anybody and do that. Um, other times it'll
S1: be like the avatar of your actual Da. So your
S1: Da is going to your digital assistant, your personal AI
S1: is going to have an avatar as well. So maybe
S1: you like that avatar to tell it to you, right?
S1: Because maybe that one is of a coach, or honestly,
S1: it's just going to become like one of your best friends.
S1: It knows you the closest. It's very, you know, intimately
S1: connected with you. So maybe it's the one teaching you.
S1: Maybe it's you and your own voice teaching you. Okay.
S1: It's going to be very easy to deepfake yourself, so
S1: maybe you're explaining it to yourself like you created the content.
S1: That would be insane. Point is, if there is a
S1: four hour video explaining this very complex topic, okay, it's
S1: a new type of machine learning. It's a new type
S1: of AI. It's a new hacking technique, but it's an
S1: hour long. It's three hours long. It's four hours long.
S1: It's five hours long. It's a 20 video course. The
S1: AI will go and watch it, and then it'll be like, hey, um,
S1: I created a thing. I know you don't have much
S1: time this week, but I created a 14 minute summary
S1: of this 20 video series, and I'm going to show
S1: it to you. It's actually done by Richard Feynman. So
S1: now Richard Feynman explains that entire 20 videos to you
S1: in 14 minutes, perfectly taught by Richard Feynman. So this
S1: is the concept of dynamic content summaries that the raw
S1: version of a thing is usually not going to be
S1: ideal for a person. The ideal will be to have
S1: it pitched in the way they like to receive things. Okay,
S1: because it won't always be a video. Sometimes it will
S1: be an audio book. It'll just be audio in your ear.
S1: Other times it'll be like a visual story, and it
S1: won't actually have an avatar or a person teaching it
S1: on a whiteboard. It'll just be like animation, and maybe
S1: people will learn better from that. Maybe people will learn
S1: better from a story, whatever they prefer. That content will
S1: be dynamically created by eye to best give you the
S1: content from the raw version. And of course, I'm a
S1: huge fan of slow, slow learning, and there's a whole
S1: bunch of stuff in fabric already for this. Like sometimes
S1: you don't want that summary, and sometimes you should stop
S1: watching those summaries and say in the AI should say,
S1: you know what? I created you a 14 minute summary
S1: of this thing, but this you need to go watch
S1: the full thing because oftentimes because I've been using these
S1: summaries with fabric for almost two years now and I often, well,
S1: pretty much always I always get something more from doing
S1: the slow version, from watching the four hour version, from
S1: watching their facial expressions. I get value from the summary itself,
S1: but I get more value from watching it happen slowly
S1: and watching it seep in slowly. So maybe you do both,
S1: maybe you do one or the other, but don't give
S1: up the slow just because you could do the fast.
S1: Exploring the idea of personal and business brands. Yeah, that
S1: was another short piece. Okay. Kaspersky is shut down US
S1: operations because of banning. AT&T says nearly all cellular customers
S1: and some landline users have had their data stolen. But
S1: Kim Zetter at Wired said somebody got paid like $300,000
S1: from the hacking team by AT&T to delete what was
S1: supposedly a copy of all the data, and supposedly the
S1: only copy of all the data. So we'll see how
S1: that plays out. But good reporting from Kim Zetter. Russia
S1: is using AI enhanced software called Meliorator to create fake
S1: online personas for disinformation campaigns. Ooh, love this, because the
S1: better this gets, the more it's going to look like
S1: a real human. And then if the AI starts acting
S1: like a human with like clicking on things, being able
S1: to tell the difference is going to get a whole
S1: lot more difficult. And this is actually one of the
S1: things I'm most worried about from AI is disinformation bots,
S1: not just the sheer number of them, but also their
S1: how advanced they are, how sophisticated they are. Basically, the
S1: better AI gets, and especially from agent frameworks, the more
S1: it's going to be exactly the same, or almost exactly
S1: the same, as if our enemies have millions of employees
S1: in their intelligence agencies. Okay, let me say that again.
S1: That was that was too convoluted. One of the things
S1: I'm most worried about is that the better AI gets,
S1: it'll be like our foreign intelligence agencies for our enemies China, Russia, Iran,
S1: North Korea. Instead of having a few hundred elite people,
S1: they're going to have a few hundred elite people and
S1: 40,000 right below them, elite people. And then the better
S1: the AI gets, those move up into the elite, and
S1: then the elite humans become augmented with that AI and
S1: they become like super elite. And the better the AI gets,
S1: I mean, it just keeps moving up that chain. So
S1: if you think it's bad to have ten, 50, 100
S1: elite people in these different countries who are both Intel
S1: trained and manipulation trained, but they're also like super hackers,
S1: and they're good at all these different skills. But there's
S1: I mean, there's only so many in the world. Well,
S1: now imagine them with a thousand of them, 10,000 of them, 100,000,
S1: 100 million. And they're working consistently with no sleep to
S1: go after all your targets. That that's what I'm personally
S1: worried about right now. And if they are producing content
S1: and the content is all manipulative, the internet is going
S1: to have to switch from block list to an allow list.
S1: I mean, think about that. The internet currently is an
S1: allow list. I'm sorry, it's a block list. Everything is available,
S1: and you have to specifically go into a place and say,
S1: I don't want to see this. I don't want to
S1: see this. I don't want to see this because of
S1: this problem right here that I'm talking about. We're going
S1: to have to switch. We're going to have to switch
S1: to the other method, which is to say my I,
S1: my internet platform, my mobile OS, okay, Android, macOS, iOS,
S1: they're not going to allow anything in unless you have
S1: the green check mark. What is the green check mark?
S1: Green check mark is an agreement between the the tech platform,
S1: the mobile platform, the OS and trusted providers like a YouTube,
S1: which has approved sources from approved individuals and approved organizations.
S1: So your news is going to have to come that
S1: way because it's going to have to be vetted. So
S1: it gets the green checkmark. This might be something that's required.
S1: It's going to happen anyway, but it might be something
S1: that's required within settings and within operating systems because it's
S1: simply too hard to drown out everything. Because this problem
S1: right here, the amount of disinformation bots, pretty soon it's
S1: going to be like, whatever, 50% of all content is
S1: going to be manipulation, then it's going to be like 75%,
S1: then it's going to be 95%. So if you are
S1: naive and you just walk onto the internet, especially as
S1: like a regular person or like a grandma or something,
S1: you're going to be screwed. You're going to be just
S1: like pulled around, Like all your money will disappear because
S1: you had to save your kids from some horrible accident.
S1: And all of a sudden there was an asteroid that
S1: hit the thing and aliens came. And pretty soon you're
S1: in a bunker and you have no money, and it's
S1: like none of it was real. The amount of and
S1: quality of manipulation. Think about that as well. The quality
S1: of the pitches and the manipulation and the deepfakes and
S1: the trickery is going to get so good. It's going
S1: to trick us to it's going to trick experts, not
S1: just regular people. There's a new XM vulnerability with a
S1: Cvss of 9.1. Google is now offering Passkeys for high
S1: risk users who join Advanced Protection. Previously, they had to
S1: get a physical token foreign influence campaigns analysis from US intelligence. Basically,
S1: they say Russia is backing Trump, probably mostly because of Ukraine.
S1: Iran is acting as a chaos agent in its campaigns,
S1: focusing on exploiting US political and social tensions rather than
S1: backing one side or another. And China's mostly staying out
S1: of the elections just trying to data collect for future
S1: influence operations. Think OPM, uh, Marriott. Yeah, though don't get
S1: me started on those. Thanks to auto Max for sponsoring.
S1: GitLab has a critical flaw in its CI CD pipelines.
S1: Thanks to Project Discovery for sponsoring and OpenAI's AGI levels,
S1: OpenAI has published their five tier ladder for AI progress.
S1: I'm honestly not a fan. Other than level five, I
S1: find level five really interesting. But the problem is they're
S1: going from like chat bots to human level reasoners and
S1: then to AI agents, then to innovators that can aid
S1: in invention. So level two and level four are way
S1: too close. Okay. So human level reasoners to agents. It's
S1: not a big enough jump. Uh, and both are already possible.
S1: That's the other problem. Level two and level four. They're
S1: kind of already possible. Then you have this really interesting
S1: jump at level five to something that can do the
S1: work of an organization. So for OpenAI level five, AGI
S1: is something that could do the work of an entire organization,
S1: but that's not super helpful. Okay, there are lots of
S1: very dumb organizations, okay? An organization could be for people.
S1: An organization can be Apple, an organization could be OpenAI
S1: in the year 2027. So that is not super descriptive
S1: in my opinion. And even worse, the problem is they're
S1: mixing criteria here. Right? So one is I don't know
S1: what what criteria number one is Reasoners is about thinking
S1: quality agents is just an attribute, which means the thing
S1: can take an action. It doesn't say anything about the
S1: quality of the action. So that's not necessarily above one
S1: or below four or above four. It's it doesn't put
S1: it anywhere because it's apples to oranges. Innovators is just
S1: a descriptive output. So it aids in invention. Here's the
S1: problem with this chat bots already aid with invention and
S1: that's what they have as their level. One is chat bots.
S1: The chat bots already help inventors invent better things. Then
S1: you have level five, which is actually about scale more
S1: than quality. Um, yeah. And like I said, scale isn't
S1: super important because you don't know if you're scaling like
S1: an ant colony. They're just kind of doing the same thing.
S1: Or if you're scaling and the scale itself leads to
S1: smarter things. So just not overall happy with it. I'm
S1: happy they put it out and I feel bad because
S1: I'm sure someone put some effort into it. And I'm
S1: sure they're human and I don't want you to feel bad.
S1: Just hopefully take this feedback and maybe the next one.
S1: Just think about these ideas, okay? AI startups raising $100
S1: million in 2024. Got a full list there. Anthropic has
S1: more new features, uh, to help automate prompt engineering. And
S1: I see a lot of my friends switching to cloud
S1: over ChatGPT right now, especially sonnet 35. I'm actually using
S1: sonnet 35 as my default within fabric right now, and
S1: it's a leapfrog game because soon we're about to have
S1: opus 35. Cannot wait for that llama 3.0 300 billion
S1: and eventually GPT five, I'm guessing fall to right at
S1: the very beginning of January. So I'm going to say August. September.
S1: I'm going to say between October and February, 90% chance
S1: of GPT five or the next GPT to come out,
S1: whether they call it 4 or 5 or they call
S1: it five, whatever, or some new name. And yeah, 2025
S1: is going to be nuts. So we're going gonna we're
S1: gonna have a new president. Well, maybe a new president,
S1: but either way, it's going to be a new whatever.
S1: There's going to be an election and an outcome. So
S1: that's going to be crazy by itself. Um, hopefully not
S1: the bad crazy, but, uh, yeah, there's just going to
S1: be a whole lot going on in 2025, not the
S1: least of which is all these new models. New fiber
S1: optic network transmits data at above 400TB per second. And importantly,
S1: this is using existing fiber, not some, you know, adamantium
S1: special stuff. YouTube music is testing. A new feature lets
S1: you use AI to generate a playlist by just describing
S1: what you want to hear. I would use that a lot.
S1: There's a surge in delivery startups like Hail Ify, okay,
S1: Hail Ify, and they're focusing on shine and TMU, which
S1: are the Chinese people competing with Amazon? Why women are
S1: disappearing from tech Houston is on a path to an
S1: all out power crisis. Tour de France riders are inhaling
S1: carbon monoxide, which is a poison gas. It's the one
S1: that kills you, I think, in your car, in a garage,
S1: if you don't have, like, open ventilation, how how is
S1: a toxic gas improving performance that okay. Yeah. 130 million
S1: US adults have low literacy skills, over half of Americans
S1: aged 16 to 74. Read below. A sixth grade level.
S1: I'm gonna say that again for the people in the back,
S1: over half of Americans aged 16 to 74 read below.
S1: A sixth grade level moving on Colorado poultry workers test
S1: positive for bird flu. But we're not talking about that
S1: because we we're tired of talking about viruses. Uh, we're
S1: tired of talking about Covid. We don't want to talk
S1: about bird flu. That's just another Covid. It's, uh. We're exhausted.
S1: You know what? I give people a break. People are exhausted.
S1: They don't want to talk about negative stuff. They literally
S1: are just going to ignore this with blinders until it
S1: literally comes to their front door and, like, makes their
S1: friends sick. And other than that, any other coverage of this,
S1: they're just going to be like, yeah, I'll know about
S1: it if it gets too bad. Yeah. And meanwhile, all
S1: the experts are like, guys, this is kind of bad.
S1: It's transferring it humans. It's killed 6 million birds and
S1: is now infecting dairy cattle across the state, which means
S1: it's going into milk and dairy workers are getting it. Uh, no.
S1: Poultry workers are now getting it. So it's like. I mean,
S1: I kind of feel it along with everyone else. I'm like, uh,
S1: I guess if my friends start getting it, I'll pay attention.
S1: Very strange times we live in, we're so, so exhausted
S1: by negativity in certain types of negativity. Just foreign. 10,000
S1: galaxies may host intelligent aliens. This is a new study
S1: basically trying to explain the Drake equation of like why
S1: we're not seeing aliens, but four out of 10,000 galaxies.
S1: I believe there's 200 billion galaxies. Unless I'm mixing up
S1: my numbers. Is it 200 billion galaxies? I think it's
S1: 200 billion. So 4 in 10,000. But there's actually. So
S1: what is that ten K to 200 billion. That's still
S1: a lot of galaxies. That's a lot of galaxies. And
S1: that's just this is just one study okay okay. Okay.
S1: So it's saying 0.003% to 0.2% of exoplanets. Yeah, but
S1: there's a lot of exoplanets like this is not super
S1: depressing to me. But I guess it's interesting if it
S1: explains the Drake equation. Okay, ideas VC's are buying medical practices.
S1: I got a buddy who's talking about how VCs are
S1: just coming into these practices, and they're just moving in
S1: and being like, you've got to sell all this super
S1: gross stuff. Order tests that you don't need, like sell
S1: them miracle drugs that don't actually work. You've got to
S1: do this to hype up the user base. They're basically
S1: turning it into like sexy sales and, um, getting them
S1: to do things other than fundamental, like high quality, proactive
S1: health like diet and exercise. It's kind of going the
S1: opposite direction towards more tests, more assessments, pills and things
S1: that don't actually work. Why? Because they make more money,
S1: which is good for VC's. So really, really bad. And
S1: thanks to my buddy for calling that out. Most conspiracies
S1: come from not realizing how often things fail. The tweet
S1: thread I put out recently on X therapy, rumination, and
S1: Untying knots. This is about therapy. Recommend you click on it.
S1: We're already going long so I'm not going to talk
S1: about it here. Discovery fluff on Lambda. Really cool. Uh
S1: really cool project by this guy here. Um, definitely want
S1: to check it out. Bullfrog GitHub action secures your workflows
S1: by controlling outbound network connections. Everything you see is a
S1: computational process if you know how to look. Um. Love it.
S1: Sean Purry emotional elicitor. This is a prompt by Moritz
S1: Kremp who's a really cool, uh, doing some really cool
S1: prompt stuff. Got to check him out. WTF happened to blogs?
S1: As an employee you are disposable. You never control the
S1: arc of your career. Smoking versus lung cancer deaths. I'm
S1: going to show this one. This is insane. Look at
S1: this thing. Hmm. Wonder if there's a correlation. Well, we
S1: see a correlation. I wonder if there's causation. That's that's compelling.
S1: Look at this. Taxes increasing bans taxes. Look at this.
S1: These are deaths going down. Great depression, World War two
S1: boom US banned cigarette ads on the radio. And surgeon
S1: General report linked smoking to death from cancer. That's the top.
S1: And it starts going down from there with all these
S1: other measures. Really interesting learning multiple concepts from a SQL image,
S1: change detection in satellite imagery. This is a hobby. I
S1: would be doing a lot more. I'm actually waiting for
S1: the AI to get really good at this. I want
S1: to create a bot that basically watches the latest satellite
S1: images from choice locations, uses AI in a pipeline, and
S1: sends me a constant flow of updates of what changed.
S1: Like it looks like they did something underground. Um, a
S1: whole bunch of trucks moved in. They appear to be
S1: this kind of truck. Here are the possible explanations for that. Again,
S1: going back to the Intel thing that I'm building, I
S1: want continuous flows of information flowing into me based on
S1: capturing artifacts, in this case images, and doing AI analysis
S1: on them. 89 things I Know About Git Commits I
S1: got the most comments about this one and substrate this week,
S1: so definitely check this one out by Jamie Tanner and
S1: the recommendation of the week. Check on your friends if
S1: you haven't heard from them in a while, send them
S1: a text. It's free and they will appreciate being thought
S1: of and be consistent about it. Like push it right?
S1: They they will appreciate that in the age of infinite leverage,
S1: judgment is the most important skill. Naval has been crushing
S1: it lately. Absolutely crushing it. I'm going to say this
S1: one again. In the age of infinite leverage, judgment is
S1: the most important skill. Naval. Unsupervised learning is produced and
S1: edited by Daniel Miessler on a Neumann U87 AI microphone
S1: using Hindenburg. Intro and outro music is by Zomby with
S1: the Y, and to get the text and links from
S1: this episode, sign up for the newsletter version of the
S1: show at Daniel miessler.com/newsletter. We'll see you next time.