WEBVTT - UL NO. 446: AI Ecosystem Components, MS 0-Days, Iranian Campaign Hacks… 0:00:00.170 --> 0:00:02.930 To zero day exploits and supply chain attacks keep you 0:00:02.930 --> 0:00:05.090 up at night. Worry no more. You can harden your 0:00:05.090 --> 0:00:08.900 security with threatlocker. Imagine taking a proactive deny by default 0:00:08.900 --> 0:00:13.160 approach to cybersecurity, blocking every action, process and user unless 0:00:13.160 --> 0:00:16.430 specifically authorized by your team. Threatlocker helps you do this 0:00:16.460 --> 0:00:19.130 and provides a full audit of every action allowed or 0:00:19.130 --> 0:00:23.450 blocked for risk management and compliance and onboarding and operation 0:00:23.450 --> 0:00:26.540 is fully supported by their US based support team. Stop 0:00:26.540 --> 0:00:30.740 the exploitation of trusted applications within your organization to keep 0:00:30.740 --> 0:00:35.269 you running efficiently and secure. Protected from ransomware. Worldwide, companies 0:00:35.270 --> 0:00:38.630 like JetBlue trust Threatlocker to secure their data and keep 0:00:38.630 --> 0:00:41.479 their business operations flying high. To learn more about how 0:00:41.510 --> 0:00:47.089 Threatlocker can mitigate unknown threats and ensure compliance for your organization, 0:00:47.090 --> 0:00:56.990 visit threatlocker Kommerell. That's Threatlocker Kommerell. Welcome to Unsupervised Learning, 0:00:57.020 --> 0:01:00.020 a security, AI, and meaning focused podcast that looks at 0:01:00.070 --> 0:01:03.100 how best to thrive as humans in a post AI world. 0:01:03.520 --> 0:01:07.630 It combines original ideas, analysis, and mental models to bring 0:01:07.630 --> 0:01:10.150 not just the news, but why it matters and how 0:01:10.150 --> 0:01:17.980 to respond. All right, welcome to unsupervised learning. This is 0:01:17.980 --> 0:01:21.699 Daniel Miessler. All right. A few notes to start off. 0:01:21.700 --> 0:01:24.730 All better from being sick. It was actually quite minor. 0:01:24.760 --> 0:01:29.290 Definitely the most minor time I've been sick in recent history. 0:01:29.319 --> 0:01:31.720 Would not even have known that I was sick if 0:01:31.720 --> 0:01:35.980 it wasn't for testing. So yeah. Good, good that that's over. 0:01:35.980 --> 0:01:40.509 We migrated fabric to go. So this is really major 0:01:40.510 --> 0:01:44.530 massive shout out to Jonathan Dunn who helped massively with this. 0:01:44.560 --> 0:01:48.970 And project still looks largely the same. But it's all 0:01:49.000 --> 0:01:52.750 go now. And if you check this out look at 0:01:52.750 --> 0:01:56.110 the installation. Now this is just insane. Watch this. You 0:01:56.110 --> 0:01:59.630 just run this, that's all. You run okay? That's how 0:01:59.630 --> 0:02:02.660 you install it and it just installs and it just works. 0:02:02.660 --> 0:02:06.980 So no more Python, no more Python dependency. Hell, you 0:02:06.980 --> 0:02:09.380 just run this and you run setup and it works. 0:02:09.410 --> 0:02:14.420 Now you might have to add some environmental variables or 0:02:14.450 --> 0:02:17.450 your go install might do it for you. It depends 0:02:17.450 --> 0:02:20.270 how you install go, but check this out. If you're 0:02:20.270 --> 0:02:23.419 going to migrate, you just do pip x uninstall fabric 0:02:23.419 --> 0:02:25.610 and that will get rid of the Python version. And 0:02:25.610 --> 0:02:28.670 then you want to check your bash RC and your 0:02:28.700 --> 0:02:32.000 zshrc and basically clean those out. If you have any 0:02:32.030 --> 0:02:34.340 aliases or anything like that in there. And then you 0:02:34.340 --> 0:02:36.380 do this which is the same one as above, and 0:02:36.380 --> 0:02:38.180 you do the setup. And again you could do the 0:02:38.180 --> 0:02:43.609 environmental variables. But watch this. Let's say you haven't messed 0:02:43.610 --> 0:02:46.370 with it in a while, which would be blasphemy. But 0:02:46.400 --> 0:02:48.440 let's say you haven't messed with it in a while 0:02:48.440 --> 0:02:50.570 and you come back, you went on vacation. Whatever, you 0:02:50.600 --> 0:02:52.910 come back three weeks later and you want to install 0:02:52.910 --> 0:02:55.190 this thing and you want to get the latest version, 0:02:55.190 --> 0:02:58.960 how do you upgrade? You just run the go install again. 0:02:58.960 --> 0:03:01.149 That's all you do. You just run the go install 0:03:01.150 --> 0:03:06.820 again and you're completely updated and upgraded. And yeah, we 0:03:06.820 --> 0:03:10.630 kind of kind of simplified up the the Readme here. 0:03:10.660 --> 0:03:14.679 It should be pretty clean. And yeah, just really, really 0:03:14.680 --> 0:03:17.980 happy with this. And it is so much faster. Yeah, 0:03:17.980 --> 0:03:21.550 it is so much faster now. Yeah. I don't know 0:03:21.550 --> 0:03:25.840 what um, I could show you here. All right. Yeah. 0:03:25.840 --> 0:03:29.500 That's basically, uh, getting some aphorisms. So I think I 0:03:29.500 --> 0:03:31.360 might have used one of these. Yeah, I used one 0:03:31.360 --> 0:03:35.110 of these for the newsletter this week. Oh, actually. And 0:03:35.110 --> 0:03:37.840 I'm recording the newsletter right now. Of course. So we'll 0:03:37.870 --> 0:03:40.390 actually see this. This is the command that I used 0:03:40.390 --> 0:03:44.230 to actually come up with some ideas for aphorisms. So 0:03:44.230 --> 0:03:48.280 I just echo Red Queen concept from Ridley's book. So 0:03:48.280 --> 0:03:52.330 I knew I wanted aphorisms around that. And um, look 0:03:52.360 --> 0:03:55.900 at this. I get back some really, really cool different 0:03:55.930 --> 0:03:58.850 aphorisms that I could potentially Potential use and depending on 0:03:58.850 --> 0:04:01.850 the model, I was using one model and it only 0:04:01.850 --> 0:04:05.240 gave me. Matt Ridley quotes. So that was pretty cool. 0:04:05.240 --> 0:04:08.150 So really depends on the model that you use. But. 0:04:08.180 --> 0:04:10.610 I basically use fabric all the time and the go 0:04:10.610 --> 0:04:15.440 version is just unbelievably good. So that's that. Um, highly 0:04:15.440 --> 0:04:19.010 recommend you check out this conversation between Peter Thiel and 0:04:19.010 --> 0:04:24.109 Joe Rogan. Um, Joe's. An interesting character. He he had 0:04:24.110 --> 0:04:26.750 Katt Williams on, and I watched as much as I 0:04:26.750 --> 0:04:29.150 could of. That episode. And it was just like these 0:04:29.150 --> 0:04:34.490 crazy conspiracy theories. And Katt Williams was quite serious, and 0:04:34.490 --> 0:04:37.400 Joe was kind of pretending to be serious. But you 0:04:37.400 --> 0:04:39.380 also don't know with Joe, like, what he believes and 0:04:39.380 --> 0:04:41.720 what he doesn't believe sometimes when he's going off on 0:04:41.720 --> 0:04:44.180 those things. But then you see him with someone like 0:04:44.180 --> 0:04:47.779 Peter Thiel and he's way more balanced. He's like, he's 0:04:47.779 --> 0:04:50.420 not coming up with a bunch of crazy stuff. He's 0:04:50.420 --> 0:04:53.990 just having a normal conversation with someone he knows is smart. 0:04:53.990 --> 0:04:58.420 And here's what's crazy. I actually thought his his description 0:04:58.420 --> 0:05:02.260 of the future of humanity was better than Peter Thiel's. Now, 0:05:02.290 --> 0:05:06.039 maybe just me and Joe are wrong, but Thiel seemed 0:05:06.040 --> 0:05:09.190 unwilling to sort of go in the direction that the 0:05:09.220 --> 0:05:12.039 Joe was taking it, which happens to be the exact 0:05:12.040 --> 0:05:14.830 same direction that I always take it in, which is like, 0:05:14.860 --> 0:05:18.130 this is inevitable. We have to merge with them. Basically, 0:05:18.130 --> 0:05:20.440 it's like AI is going to get better and better, 0:05:20.440 --> 0:05:22.630 and either we're going to merge with it or we're 0:05:22.630 --> 0:05:25.780 going to be completely replaced and it would be better 0:05:25.779 --> 0:05:29.560 to merge. And that just becomes the new us. And 0:05:29.560 --> 0:05:32.410 that was Joe's perspective on it. And it's always been 0:05:32.410 --> 0:05:35.980 my perspective on it. And I thought that was really interesting. 0:05:35.980 --> 0:05:39.940 So basically you see this kind of elevated really smart 0:05:39.940 --> 0:05:43.180 Joe on here. And then you kind of see the 0:05:43.180 --> 0:05:45.940 opposite when he's talking to someone else. He kind of 0:05:45.970 --> 0:05:48.910 just basically adapts to whoever he's talking to. If he's 0:05:48.910 --> 0:05:51.610 talking to some fighter, he'll just talk about fights and 0:05:51.610 --> 0:05:53.890 he'll just vibe out on that. If he's talking to 0:05:53.920 --> 0:05:57.110 some hunter, he'll talk about hunting like he just blends 0:05:57.110 --> 0:06:01.099 in with whoever he kind of is empathic with whoever 0:06:01.100 --> 0:06:03.710 he's talking to. And you might want to say, well, 0:06:03.710 --> 0:06:07.340 that's just a gimmick and he's just trash and blah, blah, blah. 0:06:07.370 --> 0:06:11.960 He did start podcasting, basically. He did make podcasting a 0:06:11.960 --> 0:06:15.950 thing by doing the thing that he's doing. So if 0:06:15.980 --> 0:06:18.349 you don't like his politics or whatever, you still have 0:06:18.350 --> 0:06:22.250 to objectively recognize that he is good at doing what 0:06:22.250 --> 0:06:25.849 he does. And I believe it's because of this empathy thing. 0:06:25.850 --> 0:06:29.089 So anyway, recommend checking it out. Most of the cool 0:06:29.089 --> 0:06:32.330 thoughts were coming from teal one because he's super smart 0:06:32.330 --> 0:06:34.940 and two because he was the guest. So that's Joe's 0:06:34.940 --> 0:06:37.940 job is to extract that out of the guest. But 0:06:38.270 --> 0:06:43.910 I'm I'm still trying to solve Peter Thiel because I 0:06:44.029 --> 0:06:47.450 have always thought he was kind of like this right wing, uh, 0:06:47.450 --> 0:06:51.770 crazy person. Uh, I really, really was mad at him 0:06:51.770 --> 0:06:56.440 because he was supporting Trump back in what, 2020 or 2016? 0:06:56.440 --> 0:06:58.960 I can't remember. And I was like, yeah, this is 0:06:58.990 --> 0:07:01.539 I just don't like this person because he's supporting Trump 0:07:01.540 --> 0:07:03.310 and how could you possibly do that? So I was 0:07:03.310 --> 0:07:06.580 very triggered by that. He has since been like, yeah, 0:07:06.580 --> 0:07:09.430 that was a horrible mistake. Like he's way more chaotic 0:07:09.460 --> 0:07:11.440 than I thought he was going to be. And I 0:07:11.440 --> 0:07:15.010 think he's supporting Trump again. But in a very sort 0:07:15.040 --> 0:07:17.620 of distant kind of way, almost kind of like Elon 0:07:17.620 --> 0:07:20.530 seems to be doing for the purposes of same with 0:07:20.530 --> 0:07:23.950 Andreessen and same with Horowitz for the purpose of saying, 0:07:23.950 --> 0:07:27.280 I think the other one is worse. You're not getting 0:07:27.310 --> 0:07:31.060 like strong endorsements from any of these. I would call 0:07:31.060 --> 0:07:34.270 centre right people. You're not getting strong endorsements of like, 0:07:34.300 --> 0:07:38.110 oh yeah, Trump is great, right? And I don't mean 0:07:38.110 --> 0:07:41.170 to be talking about politics here, but I'm actually not 0:07:41.170 --> 0:07:43.750 talking about politics. I'm talking about what it means to 0:07:43.780 --> 0:07:50.230 be an intellectual and have opinions that are counter to Orthodoxy. Right. 0:07:50.260 --> 0:07:53.050 So essentially what I'm saying here is I'm trying to 0:07:53.050 --> 0:07:56.930 figure teal out And the thing that I'm realizing about 0:07:56.960 --> 0:08:00.170 teal is, and what I'm really liking about teal is 0:08:00.170 --> 0:08:03.350 he and sort of dislike in some ways, it's like 0:08:03.350 --> 0:08:06.140 he's not really committing to anything. He's not. I don't 0:08:06.140 --> 0:08:08.630 see him saying, I think we should do this, which 0:08:08.630 --> 0:08:11.630 I would really appreciate. Um, it's something that I try 0:08:11.660 --> 0:08:14.570 to do. I try to do the objective thing, but 0:08:14.570 --> 0:08:17.300 then come up with a direction to move in. I 0:08:17.300 --> 0:08:18.830 feel like that's what you have to do if you 0:08:18.830 --> 0:08:21.650 want to try to lead or to motivate or inspire. 0:08:21.650 --> 0:08:24.050 But I feel like what teal does is just he's 0:08:24.050 --> 0:08:27.590 just got this giant table full of hats, and he's 0:08:27.590 --> 0:08:30.260 just always putting these different hats on. He's like, well, 0:08:30.260 --> 0:08:34.850 let's let's steel man that let's beat that up. Let's 0:08:34.850 --> 0:08:37.010 steel man that, let's beat that up. So he's just 0:08:37.010 --> 0:08:40.069 like constantly looking at pros and cons of different ways 0:08:40.070 --> 0:08:43.400 of thinking. And I think he has some general tendencies right. 0:08:43.429 --> 0:08:47.210 He's obviously generally libertarian but he'll just straight up tell 0:08:47.210 --> 0:08:49.819 you where he's not libertarian. And so what I like 0:08:49.850 --> 0:08:52.970 about him is he's not fitting into any sort of 0:08:52.970 --> 0:08:56.140 right wing bolt. Right. A lot of right people, right 0:08:56.140 --> 0:08:58.540 wing people probably think he is. But if you actually 0:08:58.540 --> 0:09:01.750 listen to him, he's not. He's actually going down his 0:09:01.750 --> 0:09:06.100 own path from first principles. From all this reading, if 0:09:06.100 --> 0:09:09.490 you watch his conversation with Tyler Cowen. Oh my God, 0:09:09.520 --> 0:09:11.980 I mean, it's like the Joe Rogan one times 1000 0:09:11.980 --> 0:09:14.979 because they are just riffing on all this history and 0:09:14.980 --> 0:09:17.469 all this different stuff that they're talking about, and they're 0:09:17.470 --> 0:09:20.020 just jumping from one topic to another. And so he's 0:09:20.020 --> 0:09:23.590 using all that knowledge to walk his own path using 0:09:23.620 --> 0:09:27.340 first principles. And sometimes that takes him like center right. 0:09:27.370 --> 0:09:30.520 Sometimes that takes him center left. I imagine sometimes he 0:09:30.520 --> 0:09:33.970 goes more extreme left and more extreme right. But I 0:09:33.970 --> 0:09:36.819 don't think he honestly cares about left and right. I 0:09:36.820 --> 0:09:40.390 think what he cares about is first principles and and 0:09:40.390 --> 0:09:43.599 studying and learning and trying to just constantly improve his 0:09:43.600 --> 0:09:46.809 models so that he can have all these different hats. 0:09:46.840 --> 0:09:49.390 Because ultimately, I think he's an investor, and I think 0:09:49.420 --> 0:09:51.790 ultimately his whole game is trying to figure out how 0:09:51.790 --> 0:09:55.630 to predict the future to some degree, some limited degree. Oh, 0:09:55.630 --> 0:09:58.990 that's the other thing. He's extremely humble. He's extremely cautious. 0:09:59.020 --> 0:10:00.580 They'll be like, hey, what do you think of this? 0:10:00.610 --> 0:10:03.459 What's the future going to be? He's like, yeah, nobody knows. 0:10:03.460 --> 0:10:06.460 It's a dumb question. So it's like the opposite of 0:10:06.460 --> 0:10:09.670 the right. Okay. You get a typical right wing pundit. 0:10:09.670 --> 0:10:12.670 So let me give you a perfect example. Peter Thiel 0:10:12.670 --> 0:10:17.830 is the absolute opposite from Tucker Carlson. Tucker Carlson is 0:10:17.830 --> 0:10:22.059 extremely sure about things and extremely wrong. And Peter Thiel 0:10:22.059 --> 0:10:25.960 is extremely unsure about things and tends to be very right. 0:10:25.960 --> 0:10:29.560 And he's very cautious and he's just constantly consuming and learning. 0:10:29.559 --> 0:10:32.890 And it's just yeah, so I'm still trying to lock 0:10:32.890 --> 0:10:35.439 in on Peter Thiel. I'm still trying to look for 0:10:35.440 --> 0:10:38.800 skeletons or look for biases, but I feel like he's 0:10:38.800 --> 0:10:42.100 a pretty good model of how to learn about the world, 0:10:42.130 --> 0:10:43.809 as far as I can tell. So far, I've got 0:10:43.840 --> 0:10:47.320 like a 75% read. I would love to see if 0:10:47.320 --> 0:10:50.710 anyone has a different read, or has knowledge that can 0:10:50.740 --> 0:10:54.370 sort of shape my model of him based on this, 0:10:54.370 --> 0:10:56.559 and I bought one of those mini libraries to put 0:10:56.559 --> 0:10:58.300 up in my neighborhood. I don't know if you've ever 0:10:58.300 --> 0:11:02.140 seen these. I've seen them all over, definitely in Palo Alto. 0:11:02.140 --> 0:11:04.600 So if you drive through one of these neighborhoods in 0:11:04.600 --> 0:11:08.110 Palo Alto, like kind of near Stanford, um, not Atherton, 0:11:08.110 --> 0:11:11.110 but one of the nicer neighborhoods in Palo Alto, you'll see, 0:11:11.140 --> 0:11:13.780 like these little it looks like a birdhouse, kind of. 0:11:13.809 --> 0:11:16.870 But it's like on the curb, like right against the street. 0:11:16.870 --> 0:11:19.750 And it says like mini library or community library or 0:11:19.750 --> 0:11:22.510 whatever on it. And it's just like this little birdhouse thing, 0:11:22.510 --> 0:11:24.590 except for when you open it up. It's like 1 0:11:24.590 --> 0:11:28.090 or 2 shelves of books. And the idea is you 0:11:28.090 --> 0:11:30.309 take a book, you just walk away. You just walk 0:11:30.309 --> 0:11:32.319 away with it. Maybe you never bring it back, but 0:11:32.320 --> 0:11:35.890 the idea is community karma. So yes, you do bring 0:11:35.890 --> 0:11:37.750 it back. Or maybe you bring back an extra book. 0:11:37.750 --> 0:11:40.179 So it's just like this. It's a combination of community 0:11:40.179 --> 0:11:44.829 with books. Love it. Obviously. All right. So my work 0:11:44.860 --> 0:11:48.309 got this new piece on the four components of what's 0:11:48.309 --> 0:11:52.350 going to make models. When I models win and it's 0:11:52.350 --> 0:11:55.980 basically I'll go into it here. It's basically the model itself, 0:11:55.980 --> 0:12:00.210 post-training internal tooling and then agents. And I'm actually going 0:12:00.240 --> 0:12:02.910 to add some extra stuff here. But these are the four. 0:12:02.940 --> 0:12:05.100 And then the summary is just the four of those. 0:12:05.100 --> 0:12:08.640 So we should start thinking about top models as model 0:12:08.640 --> 0:12:11.820 ecosystems instead of just models. Because it's not just the 0:12:11.820 --> 0:12:14.910 neural net weights doing the work. There are four main components. 0:12:14.910 --> 0:12:18.480 And the company that wins the AI model wars will 0:12:18.480 --> 0:12:20.790 need to excel at all four of these. Not just 0:12:20.790 --> 0:12:23.160 spending lots of money to have the neural net with 0:12:23.160 --> 0:12:26.130 the most parameters. So that's that piece. Next one here 0:12:26.130 --> 0:12:29.160 is the link between free will and LLM denial. That 0:12:29.160 --> 0:12:32.820 one's a bit deep and esoteric. And if you don't 0:12:32.820 --> 0:12:35.220 like free will it won't interest you. So I'm going 0:12:35.250 --> 0:12:38.280 to skip that one. Okay. Security. Microsoft just released a 0:12:38.280 --> 0:12:42.929 bunch of patches, uh, 90 security flaws, including ten zero days, 0:12:42.929 --> 0:12:47.010 six of which being actively exploited. I think the biggest one. 0:12:47.010 --> 0:12:51.100 If I'm not incorrect about this is Wasn't there a 0:12:51.100 --> 0:12:54.670 really nasty IPv6 one? Just pull this up real quick. 0:12:54.700 --> 0:13:01.870 IPv6 Microsoft repeatedly sent IPv6 packets include specially crafted packets 0:13:01.870 --> 0:13:07.510 to windows machine enable remote code execution. Yeah, so pretty nasty. 0:13:07.510 --> 0:13:10.360 And I think it's before the firewall. So somebody was 0:13:10.360 --> 0:13:13.630 saying it might have been Marcus Hutchins saying this, who 0:13:13.630 --> 0:13:15.699 he got to meet in person for the first time 0:13:16.000 --> 0:13:19.750 after talking to him for a number of years just online, 0:13:19.750 --> 0:13:22.630 but got to meet him at this crater meetup that 0:13:22.630 --> 0:13:25.809 we do in Vegas. Probably got Covid there. Lots of 0:13:25.809 --> 0:13:28.030 people probably gave me Covid there. Lots of people probably 0:13:28.030 --> 0:13:30.640 got Covid there. Anyway. Got to meet him in person 0:13:30.640 --> 0:13:33.940 there in Vegas. That was cool. But I think he 0:13:33.940 --> 0:13:37.960 might have been saying somewhere that basically the IPv6 packets 0:13:37.990 --> 0:13:40.720 come in and don't even make it to the firewall. 0:13:40.720 --> 0:13:44.980 It just goes straight through and gets parsed and produces 0:13:44.980 --> 0:13:49.330 the ability to create RC. So that's great. Uh Russian 0:13:49.350 --> 0:13:54.420 cyber spies from the FSB. Cold War. Trail. Cold war's trail. 0:13:54.420 --> 0:13:57.870 Cold wastrel. Who knows how to say that? Been running 0:13:57.870 --> 0:14:01.620 a massive phishing campaign dubbed River of fish, targeting U.S. 0:14:01.620 --> 0:14:07.170 and European entities since 2022, going after high risk individuals, NGOs, 0:14:07.200 --> 0:14:10.980 media outlets, government people. And the Pentagon is talking about 0:14:10.980 --> 0:14:13.890 their plan to flood the Taiwan Strait with thousands of 0:14:13.890 --> 0:14:17.040 drones in the event of a Chinese invasion. So this guy, 0:14:17.070 --> 0:14:21.750 Admiral Sam Samuel Paparo, described the strategy as creating an 0:14:21.750 --> 0:14:26.490 unmanned hellscape to delay Chinese forces. Why are we talking 0:14:26.490 --> 0:14:29.730 about this? Unless this is part of the strategy to 0:14:29.760 --> 0:14:31.739 make them think we're doing this, and then they try 0:14:31.770 --> 0:14:34.740 to adjust for that. But that's not actually what we're doing. Like, 0:14:34.770 --> 0:14:37.830 are we playing games here? Like what exactly. Why are 0:14:37.830 --> 0:14:41.370 we talking about this? Evidently, it's not meant to be 0:14:41.370 --> 0:14:45.930 useful as a surprise because it's no longer a surprise. Whatever. 0:14:45.960 --> 0:14:47.910 That'd be cool if it was like, yeah, we're not 0:14:47.910 --> 0:14:49.720 really going to do that. We're just going to make 0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:52.990 them do a bunch of anti-drone stuff. And actually our 0:14:52.990 --> 0:14:55.900 strategy is going to be completely different. Whatever. We'd like 0:14:55.900 --> 0:14:58.990 to know more. Someone published a timeline of his research 0:14:59.020 --> 0:15:04.600 on offensive AI agents, three distinct types of AI offensive systems. 0:15:04.600 --> 0:15:10.570 SolarWinds patched a critical Deserialization vulnerability 9.8 on the Richter scale. 0:15:10.570 --> 0:15:13.480 Iranian banks have been hit by a massive cyber attack, 0:15:13.480 --> 0:15:16.900 probably tied to Israel. I'm just guessing Trump shared a 0:15:16.900 --> 0:15:20.530 fake image. Oh man, I didn't put the link. I 0:15:20.530 --> 0:15:22.930 just got an email about this. Didn't put the link. 0:15:22.960 --> 0:15:26.860 Oh man. Whatever fake image of Harris speaking at a 0:15:26.860 --> 0:15:29.710 Communist event. All right, let me let me find this thing. 0:15:29.740 --> 0:15:35.920 Trump share. Yeah, look at that. Look at that. I mean, 0:15:35.950 --> 0:15:38.200 does anyone think she would actually go to an event 0:15:38.200 --> 0:15:40.869 like that? Well, first of all, yeah, this this is 0:15:40.870 --> 0:15:43.600 what I said actually in the piece. Right. Um, one 0:15:43.600 --> 0:15:46.660 lots of people will believe it's real. And two, current 0:15:46.690 --> 0:15:49.650 tech can already make more believable ones than this. So 0:15:49.650 --> 0:15:52.380 this isn't the actual problem. The actual problem is when 0:15:52.380 --> 0:15:55.710 it gets much worse. Oh, here's the other one that 0:15:55.710 --> 0:16:01.560 they were sharing. Watch this one. Trump. Share. Taylor Swift 0:16:01.590 --> 0:16:05.100 should be enough, right? No links. Yeah. Look at this. 0:16:05.130 --> 0:16:07.680 Look at this. So we've been talking about for years. 0:16:07.710 --> 0:16:09.660 I went looking for this post where I first started 0:16:09.690 --> 0:16:12.480 talking about this. I couldn't find it. So. Beehive, fix 0:16:12.480 --> 0:16:15.870 your search, please. Uh, couldn't find it with Google either, so. 0:16:16.140 --> 0:16:19.800 Kind of annoying. Anyway, I wrote about basically deep fakes 0:16:19.800 --> 0:16:22.109 becoming an issue because we're not going to be able 0:16:22.110 --> 0:16:24.960 to believe things. It's so obvious now. It's not even 0:16:24.960 --> 0:16:28.020 a good post, but it was very early. This was 0:16:28.020 --> 0:16:31.650 like two years ago. Um, I was talking about this. Um, 0:16:31.650 --> 0:16:36.870 but anyway, everyone knows now, uh, and here is the actual. 0:16:36.930 --> 0:16:40.530 It's just now starting to matter. Okay, look at this picture. 0:16:40.530 --> 0:16:43.800 The top right one that looks like an actual, like event. 0:16:43.800 --> 0:16:46.080 This person's got his phone. He's got his foot sticking 0:16:46.080 --> 0:16:50.380 out That looks super real. Super real Swifties for Trump. 0:16:50.410 --> 0:16:53.080 Now you don't be funny is if that was if 0:16:53.080 --> 0:16:56.620 that was actually real like some. Okay the bottom left 0:16:56.620 --> 0:17:00.520 definitely not real. Okay. They're probably none of these are 0:17:00.520 --> 0:17:03.250 probably real. Just to be very clear about, you know, 0:17:03.280 --> 0:17:07.240 disinformation or whatever. But, um, the point is you can 0:17:07.240 --> 0:17:09.490 make these. Oh, yeah. This bottom right one also looks 0:17:09.490 --> 0:17:12.940 super real. The bottom left one does not because that 0:17:12.940 --> 0:17:17.560 Swifties for Trump looks like two clear like the white 0:17:17.590 --> 0:17:20.679 of the text just looks a little bit too artificial. 0:17:20.680 --> 0:17:24.220 But this one Swifties for Trump. It's got shadow on it. 0:17:24.220 --> 0:17:27.160 The T is hidden because it's on the other side 0:17:27.160 --> 0:17:30.010 of her body, so that one looks real. It's actually 0:17:30.010 --> 0:17:33.640 the same person as this. Honestly, these two look really, 0:17:33.640 --> 0:17:37.480 really good that that would trick basically anybody, including me 0:17:37.510 --> 0:17:40.660 right now. So the point is, these are getting so 0:17:40.660 --> 0:17:43.929 good that you can't tell the difference between reality and 0:17:43.960 --> 0:17:47.820 doesn't really matter for this. Right now. This one maybe 0:17:47.820 --> 0:17:50.910 kind of does. The question is what happens when it's 0:17:50.910 --> 0:17:54.870 a thing that really matters? Like did a crime actually occur? Um, 0:17:54.869 --> 0:17:59.580 who is the assailant? Evidence of something bad happening. Where 0:17:59.609 --> 0:18:03.240 where we're going to use pictures or video as part 0:18:03.240 --> 0:18:05.580 of the evidence for that crime. That's when it starts 0:18:05.580 --> 0:18:09.600 to really, really matter. And also for politics as well. Um, 0:18:09.600 --> 0:18:14.129 the worst possible one is, is like the absolute worst 0:18:14.130 --> 0:18:19.980 one is where you have, um, a video of Trump saying, 0:18:20.010 --> 0:18:22.439 you know, it looks like we're going to have to 0:18:22.440 --> 0:18:26.820 attack Russia, pre-emptive nuclear strike. And it's very believable. And 0:18:26.820 --> 0:18:29.880 it freaks somebody out and that person freaks out Putin 0:18:29.880 --> 0:18:32.640 and something goes off or something similar to that. Maybe 0:18:32.640 --> 0:18:35.700 it's not a nuclear war, but something where there's an 0:18:35.700 --> 0:18:39.090 actual threat being made and it causes the other person 0:18:39.090 --> 0:18:43.440 to respond. So it's a trigger point for kinetic action 0:18:43.440 --> 0:18:48.350 that that's pretty serious and we have the tech now 0:18:48.470 --> 0:18:51.469 to be able to do that. Not everyone could do it, 0:18:51.470 --> 0:18:54.800 but it's getting pretty close, and it's much easier to 0:18:54.800 --> 0:18:57.170 do with images than it is for video. But the 0:18:57.170 --> 0:19:00.410 point is, this is getting very, very real. No longer 0:19:00.410 --> 0:19:04.580 theoretical Iranian hacking group Abt 42 has targeted both Trump 0:19:04.580 --> 0:19:10.460 and Biden campaigns, according to Google's Tag group. They look 0:19:10.490 --> 0:19:14.479 like they work for Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is 0:19:14.510 --> 0:19:16.820 like their elite group. And it looks like they targeted 0:19:16.820 --> 0:19:21.830 both campaigns. But only Trump's campaign had sensitive files leaked. 0:19:22.130 --> 0:19:24.920 Kind of interesting. I mean, maybe there was nothing there 0:19:24.920 --> 0:19:27.949 on the Democratic side. Maybe, I don't know, why are 0:19:27.950 --> 0:19:33.619 they why are they anti-Trump? Um, oh, maybe. Maybe because 0:19:33.650 --> 0:19:38.270 Trump is about to massively support Israel and massively crush Iran. 0:19:38.390 --> 0:19:41.360 That would be a good explanation. Trump corroborated this by 0:19:41.390 --> 0:19:44.910 pointing the finger at Iran for hacking his campaign, praising 0:19:44.910 --> 0:19:48.120 the FBI's investigation into the breach. This is one thing 0:19:48.119 --> 0:19:51.300 that I like decently about Trump when he does it, 0:19:51.300 --> 0:19:53.700 and it's only because the bar is so low. But 0:19:53.700 --> 0:19:56.400 if he gets on a phone call with the FBI 0:19:56.400 --> 0:19:59.190 and the FBI is like, yes sir, no sir, blah, blah, blah, 0:19:59.220 --> 0:20:01.409 you know, we did this or we did that. If 0:20:01.410 --> 0:20:03.990 he just got done railing against the FBI for like 0:20:03.990 --> 0:20:06.629 the last six months and he has that call, he'll 0:20:06.630 --> 0:20:08.310 go and talk to the press and be like, yeah, 0:20:08.310 --> 0:20:11.040 I just had a great call with the FBI. Very professional, 0:20:11.040 --> 0:20:13.890 very cool. It's like the thing that happened most recently 0:20:13.890 --> 0:20:16.350 is like his view of reality, but at least he's 0:20:16.350 --> 0:20:19.440 willing to, like, be positive if a positive thing happened. 0:20:19.470 --> 0:20:21.449 I mean, I can't believe I'm saying that as a 0:20:21.450 --> 0:20:26.400 positive thing, since that's called normal. China linked cyber spies 0:20:26.400 --> 0:20:30.780 have infected dozens of Russian government and IT sector computers 0:20:30.780 --> 0:20:35.040 with backdoors and trojans since late July, according to Kaspersky. So, 0:20:35.070 --> 0:20:38.610 China v Russia scammers are targeting young Chinese job seekers 0:20:38.609 --> 0:20:42.720 in a tough economy. AI and tech grok chatbot now 0:20:42.720 --> 0:20:45.830 lets users create images from text prompts and publish them 0:20:45.830 --> 0:20:49.490 to X, leading to chaotic results like Barack Obama doing 0:20:49.490 --> 0:20:52.640 cocaine and Donald Trump in a Nazi uniform. Yeah, the 0:20:52.640 --> 0:20:56.389 one that I saw. Yeah, I wrote this right here. Um, 0:20:56.390 --> 0:20:59.450 the one I saw was Trump basically had his arm 0:20:59.450 --> 0:21:02.870 around Ellen, and Ellen was pregnant. And Ellen posted that 0:21:02.869 --> 0:21:04.640 and he was like, live by the sword, die by 0:21:04.640 --> 0:21:09.350 the sword. Yeah. Uh, okay. Got someone who's on a 0:21:09.350 --> 0:21:12.800 mission to make you love reading again. So he's using 0:21:12.830 --> 0:21:17.090 AI tools like ChatGPT to recommend books, understand deeper themes, 0:21:17.090 --> 0:21:22.580 and novels like Hermann Hesse's Siddhartha, and create actionable strategies 0:21:22.580 --> 0:21:26.780 from business books like Alex Hormozi $100 million Offers. I've 0:21:26.780 --> 0:21:29.660 already got that built into fabric. Um, I've got one 0:21:29.660 --> 0:21:33.860 called create $100 million offer. You give it any product, 0:21:33.859 --> 0:21:37.790 concept or idea and it'll build you a hormozi offer 0:21:37.790 --> 0:21:40.580 based on it. Comedians are increasingly using AI to help 0:21:40.580 --> 0:21:44.609 write jokes and brainstorm ideas with mixed results. I think 0:21:44.609 --> 0:21:48.240 this is as big or bigger, not bigger as big, 0:21:48.240 --> 0:21:50.820 maybe as the Turing test in terms of the importance 0:21:50.820 --> 0:21:54.510 of AI progress. Because if I can write a full 0:21:54.510 --> 0:21:59.460 comedy set and make humans laugh, that is massively huge. 0:21:59.460 --> 0:22:03.270 Even better if it can be deepfaked performed right. So 0:22:03.270 --> 0:22:06.900 it's actually AI writing it and AI performing it, and 0:22:06.900 --> 0:22:10.920 all the human did was tell an agent to write 0:22:10.950 --> 0:22:15.659 a comedy set around a topic. Okay, that is this. 0:22:15.660 --> 0:22:20.370 This is an unbelievable metric, okay, a milestone metric. So basically, 0:22:20.400 --> 0:22:24.300 here's the test. Can I give an agent or any model? 0:22:24.300 --> 0:22:28.020 Let's say, for example, I hand this to I write 0:22:28.050 --> 0:22:33.330 a comedy sketch skit or set around, um, good coffee 0:22:33.359 --> 0:22:37.679 versus bad coffee or how baristas don't care about you 0:22:37.680 --> 0:22:40.889 or how customer services people don't care about you. Do 0:22:40.920 --> 0:22:44.030 write a 20 minute set just about this topic. Okay. 0:22:44.060 --> 0:22:46.700 So now I want to see on a screen either 0:22:46.700 --> 0:22:50.030 a stand up view or a face view. Yeah. A 0:22:50.030 --> 0:22:51.800 stand up view would be better. Actually, I want to 0:22:51.800 --> 0:22:53.689 see a stage. I want to see a microphone. I 0:22:53.690 --> 0:22:56.750 want to see a person standing there talking. And I 0:22:56.750 --> 0:22:58.490 want to see them moving. I want to see them 0:22:58.490 --> 0:23:01.550 moving their hands. I want to see them gesturing. A full, 0:23:01.550 --> 0:23:05.060 complete deepfake of the content that they wrote. And this 0:23:05.060 --> 0:23:07.160 has to be funny. Okay. And it doesn't even have 0:23:07.160 --> 0:23:09.139 to be, like, the funniest thing. It doesn't have to 0:23:09.140 --> 0:23:12.770 be Dave Chappelle. It has to be decently funny. Like 0:23:12.770 --> 0:23:16.160 good enough to get gigs on a comedy tour. And 0:23:16.160 --> 0:23:18.350 if you've been on a comedy, tours like The Bar 0:23:18.350 --> 0:23:21.980 is not super high for the average comic that I 0:23:21.980 --> 0:23:24.230 don't know what I skeptics are going to say to that. 0:23:24.230 --> 0:23:26.149 And I would say I'm going to I'm going to 0:23:26.150 --> 0:23:29.000 call it right now. We are in the middle of 2024. 0:23:29.030 --> 0:23:34.580 I'm going to call that as 2025, 2026 at the latest. 0:23:34.580 --> 0:23:40.129 Full deepfake integration 2026 at the latest. So both 2026, 0:23:40.130 --> 0:23:42.840 both in 2026. That's two years from now, a year 0:23:42.840 --> 0:23:44.880 and a half from now, we will have the ability 0:23:44.880 --> 0:23:48.240 to have a Deepfaked comic, right? A funny set and 0:23:48.240 --> 0:23:50.370 perform it in a way that if a regular person 0:23:50.369 --> 0:23:52.920 who enjoys comedy watches it, they'll be like, yeah, that's 0:23:52.920 --> 0:23:56.220 pretty funny. That's decently funny. Now, could they get their 0:23:56.220 --> 0:24:00.150 own Netflix Netflix special based on that content? That would 0:24:00.150 --> 0:24:02.370 be like the top, top tier. But keep in mind 0:24:02.369 --> 0:24:06.510 how few comics actually have Netflix specials. So yeah. Interesting. 0:24:06.540 --> 0:24:09.419 What did I say? 27. No, I said 26. Yeah. 0:24:09.450 --> 0:24:11.909 All right. I'm holding myself to that. San Francisco is 0:24:11.910 --> 0:24:14.490 looking to ban software that critics claim is being used 0:24:14.490 --> 0:24:20.280 to artificially inflate rates, so it allegedly helps landlords coordinate 0:24:20.280 --> 0:24:24.060 rent increases. You might be over using vim visual mode. 0:24:24.060 --> 0:24:26.399 I've been worried about this for quite some time, actually. 0:24:26.400 --> 0:24:29.129 Oh yeah, instead of doing GG takes you to the 0:24:29.130 --> 0:24:33.690 top V which switched to visual mode, and then capital G, 0:24:33.869 --> 0:24:37.050 which goes to the bottom of the file. Instead you 0:24:37.080 --> 0:24:41.300 do GG quote plus y Why capital? That's a lot 0:24:41.330 --> 0:24:43.580 of characters, man. Anyway, I'm going to try to learn 0:24:43.580 --> 0:24:45.649 how to do this and do it more with normal 0:24:45.650 --> 0:24:48.889 commands instead of visual. All right humans. We're going to 0:24:48.890 --> 0:24:53.840 have driver's licenses in the Apple Wallet before too long, 0:24:53.869 --> 0:24:56.359 and you'll be able to go through LAX and SFO. 0:24:56.390 --> 0:25:00.260 China's manufacturers are facing a financial crisis, with many going 0:25:00.260 --> 0:25:03.679 bankrupt due to a combination of weak demand, rising costs 0:25:03.710 --> 0:25:07.460 and increased competition. Scientists at Fermilab have detected the first 0:25:07.460 --> 0:25:13.189 neutrinos using a prototype detector. Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment. Dune. 0:25:13.190 --> 0:25:15.560 You got to land. You got to land. The acronym. 0:25:15.560 --> 0:25:18.830 They landed it. Venture capitalists aren't looking for nice founders. 0:25:18.830 --> 0:25:22.760 They want risk takers. Nate Silver highlights that 70% of 0:25:22.760 --> 0:25:29.720 the billionaires on the 2023 Forbes 400 list are self-made, 70% self-made, 0:25:29.720 --> 0:25:33.710 modest backgrounds. So I saw Scott Galloway talking to Nate 0:25:33.710 --> 0:25:37.220 Silver about this. I really love this idea of basically 0:25:37.220 --> 0:25:39.050 Nate Silver was talking about this thing I've been talking 0:25:39.050 --> 0:25:42.580 about for a while, which is they want crazy religious 0:25:42.580 --> 0:25:45.640 people who are just like, yep, I have no life whatsoever. 0:25:45.640 --> 0:25:48.040 I will sleep under my desk. That is what people 0:25:48.040 --> 0:25:50.859 are looking for. They're looking for a crazy vision. And 0:25:50.859 --> 0:25:54.040 when I say people, I'm talking about VCs and also 0:25:54.040 --> 0:25:57.429 startup founders who are hiring people. And I would argue 0:25:57.430 --> 0:25:59.919 this is the future of all work. The future of 0:25:59.920 --> 0:26:02.710 all work is you only hire these people. You only 0:26:02.710 --> 0:26:07.449 hire the most talented and the most crazy dedicated because 0:26:07.450 --> 0:26:10.870 to hire a worker who just does normal work, they 0:26:10.869 --> 0:26:14.320 show up 9 to 5 and they do average level work. 0:26:14.320 --> 0:26:17.590 That's called AI except for it doesn't go home, it 0:26:17.590 --> 0:26:21.070 doesn't commute, it doesn't draw a salary, and you can 0:26:21.070 --> 0:26:24.939 upgrade it instantly. Okay, so 9 to 5 workers who 0:26:24.940 --> 0:26:28.930 just do average work that gets replaced. The only people 0:26:28.930 --> 0:26:31.480 I think that people are going to want going forward. 0:26:31.480 --> 0:26:34.000 And this is an exaggeration. There's still going to be 0:26:34.000 --> 0:26:36.670 a need for some some of the other type. But 0:26:36.670 --> 0:26:40.280 I would say in general, the motion towards is towards 0:26:40.280 --> 0:26:44.420 this dedicated zealot crazy person which happens to be young, 0:26:44.450 --> 0:26:48.649 happens to be male, usually um, and just obsessed with tech, 0:26:48.680 --> 0:26:52.040 obsessed with building things, obsessed with like. And you got 0:26:52.040 --> 0:26:55.130 all sorts of hangups around this. You got God complexes, 0:26:55.130 --> 0:26:59.180 you got narcissism, you got like, just ambition. Just all 0:26:59.180 --> 0:27:02.990 sorts of crazy testosterone powered things going on there. And 0:27:02.990 --> 0:27:07.040 the upside is taking risk. They're like, oh yeah, just 0:27:07.040 --> 0:27:09.170 I'll take all my money and put it into this 0:27:09.170 --> 0:27:12.320 idea and sleep under my desk for four years. And 0:27:12.320 --> 0:27:14.540 you don't see many older people doing that. You don't 0:27:14.540 --> 0:27:17.810 see many women doing that. There are some, uh, a 0:27:17.810 --> 0:27:20.270 decent amount, right? If you look at the entire world, 0:27:20.270 --> 0:27:23.929 but in general, it starts to look like one particular demographic. 0:27:23.930 --> 0:27:27.770 And silver is basically saying, yeah, that's what gets it done. 0:27:27.800 --> 0:27:31.129 That's what VCs are looking for and not people who 0:27:31.130 --> 0:27:35.660 are cautious. And I find that really interesting. This negativity, 0:27:35.660 --> 0:27:39.880 this risk acceptance. It feels very Atlas Shrugged to me, 0:27:39.880 --> 0:27:42.700 which is kind of awesome and kind of gross for 0:27:42.760 --> 0:27:46.600 different reasons, but I think that's one of the premises 0:27:46.600 --> 0:27:50.109 of Atlas Shrugged is that the risk takers are the 0:27:50.109 --> 0:27:52.840 ones who get the benefits, like the awesome people are 0:27:52.840 --> 0:27:55.120 the ones who are actually building. And I feel like 0:27:55.119 --> 0:27:58.240 Silicon Valley is based around this entire concept, is that 0:27:58.240 --> 0:28:00.369 those people who sleep under the desk, they are the 0:28:00.369 --> 0:28:03.639 special people, and of course, very few of them actually succeed, 0:28:03.820 --> 0:28:07.510 you know, especially the first time. But anyway, really cool 0:28:07.510 --> 0:28:10.060 concept coming out of Nate Silver. And by the way, 0:28:10.060 --> 0:28:13.180 he's the one who did FiveThirtyEight, although he does not 0:28:13.180 --> 0:28:16.150 run it anymore, someone else is running it and they're 0:28:16.150 --> 0:28:20.890 actually competing using Nate Silver's brand of FiveThirtyEight. So do 0:28:20.890 --> 0:28:23.410 not tie yourself to a brand and then sell it, 0:28:23.410 --> 0:28:25.750 because everyone will think you still have it. Growing trend 0:28:25.780 --> 0:28:29.500 of Gen Z men becoming NEETs not in employment, education 0:28:29.500 --> 0:28:33.100 or training. 1 in 5 young men under 25 unemployed 0:28:33.100 --> 0:28:36.910 and not actively looking for work, 1 in 5 unemployed 0:28:36.910 --> 0:28:40.070 and not looking for work. What the f is going on? 0:28:40.100 --> 0:28:43.130 Slow is smooth. Smooth is fast. I've always loved this. 0:28:43.370 --> 0:28:46.700 I'm ex-military myself. I've heard this a million times. It's 0:28:46.700 --> 0:28:49.550 not just Navy Seals. Lots of military talk about this, 0:28:49.550 --> 0:28:52.790 but cool idea. No one wants kids anymore. And it's 0:28:52.790 --> 0:28:56.690 not you. Cool video talks about declining birth rates, touching 0:28:56.690 --> 0:29:01.430 on economic pressures, changing societal values, and personal choices. Imposter 0:29:01.430 --> 0:29:05.720 syndrome often stems from systemic biases, not just self-doubt, and 0:29:05.720 --> 0:29:10.760 highlights that many women experience this due to real exclusionary practices, 0:29:10.760 --> 0:29:13.670 which is 100% true. Guy got fired and replaced by 0:29:13.670 --> 0:29:17.330 AI at cosmos magazine, and the management didn't tell anyone. 0:29:17.330 --> 0:29:21.080 They're using generative AI to write articles, possibly trained on 0:29:21.110 --> 0:29:24.590 their own authors work, and basically firing all the humans 0:29:24.590 --> 0:29:27.650 who could have possibly predicted this. I give my kids 0:29:27.680 --> 0:29:31.160 a summer like mine. In the 1980s, this parent decided 0:29:31.160 --> 0:29:34.040 to give her ten and five year old daughters a 0:29:34.040 --> 0:29:38.230 taste of a 1980s summer holiday where the bedroom where 0:29:38.260 --> 0:29:44.920 boredom was common and self entertainment was key. 1980. Summer holiday. 0:29:44.920 --> 0:29:46.390 This is when I grew up. I grew up in 0:29:46.390 --> 0:29:51.880 the 80s where boredom was common and self entertainment was key. Boredom. 0:29:51.880 --> 0:29:54.220 You know how awesome it is. I'm thinking about this 0:29:54.220 --> 0:29:58.450 right now to be a kid outside on a weekend. 0:29:58.480 --> 0:30:01.210 You had some sort of breakfast which your parents cooked 0:30:01.210 --> 0:30:03.940 for you. You are now out playing. That's what it's called. 0:30:03.940 --> 0:30:06.520 You're out playing. I don't know what age this is. 0:30:06.520 --> 0:30:10.090 Let's call it 12 or something like that, or 14. 0:30:10.090 --> 0:30:13.690 You then get together with your buddies and obviously I'm 0:30:13.690 --> 0:30:16.780 a boy, so I'm going to have a boy perspective. 0:30:16.780 --> 0:30:19.420 But you would get together with your guy friends all 0:30:19.420 --> 0:30:21.340 the same age and you're just like, what are we 0:30:21.370 --> 0:30:23.140 going to do? I don't know, I don't know, what 0:30:23.140 --> 0:30:24.820 are you going to do? And you're just like, maybe 0:30:24.850 --> 0:30:26.890 we should go over here. No. That's stupid. We just 0:30:26.890 --> 0:30:29.080 did that. Uh, maybe we should go over here. Hey, 0:30:29.080 --> 0:30:30.580 you want to, like, see if we can lift up 0:30:30.580 --> 0:30:33.280 these manhole covers and, like, roll them around? Yeah, that 0:30:33.280 --> 0:30:35.840 sounds cool. So you go over, you try to stick 0:30:35.870 --> 0:30:38.209 your finger in the hole. You try to like, wedge 0:30:38.210 --> 0:30:40.640 some sort of piece of metal in there and yank 0:30:40.670 --> 0:30:42.530 it up. Turns out the metal was sharp and you 0:30:42.530 --> 0:30:45.380 just gouged your hand open. You're bleeding all over the place, 0:30:45.380 --> 0:30:47.600 so someone, like, rips the sleeve off of their shirt 0:30:47.600 --> 0:30:49.700 and wraps it around your hand, and then you just 0:30:49.700 --> 0:30:52.940 keep doing it, and then you just, like, roll this thing. 0:30:52.940 --> 0:30:55.640 Then you realize, well, someone walks by here and falls 0:30:55.640 --> 0:30:58.700 in that hole like you're super screwed. You know you're 0:30:58.700 --> 0:31:00.800 going to hurt yourself. Maybe one of your friends actually 0:31:00.800 --> 0:31:03.320 do it. Maybe you decide to climb down there because 0:31:03.320 --> 0:31:05.690 that's stupid also, but also kind of fun. Do you 0:31:05.690 --> 0:31:09.200 know how many hundreds of these moments that I've had 0:31:09.200 --> 0:31:11.960 that Gen X people have had that are just magical? 0:31:11.960 --> 0:31:14.060 I was talking to my girl about this as well. 0:31:14.060 --> 0:31:17.330 She loves this. The same exact thing. She would get 0:31:17.360 --> 0:31:20.750 on her bike and go riding all over the frickin town, 0:31:20.750 --> 0:31:23.660 riding all over. Just go visit her friends and hang out. 0:31:23.660 --> 0:31:26.210 And she'd have her bike with a banana seat and 0:31:26.210 --> 0:31:28.790 just like, take it everywhere. And then she would start 0:31:28.790 --> 0:31:31.430 getting hungry. The sun would start going down. And if 0:31:31.430 --> 0:31:34.130 she didn't get home once that happened, that was an 0:31:34.130 --> 0:31:39.460 ass whoopin and just everyone understood that you are free, 1,000% 0:31:39.460 --> 0:31:41.950 free until the street lights come on. Then you got 0:31:41.950 --> 0:31:44.770 to get home. Then there's dinner there for you. You 0:31:44.770 --> 0:31:48.250 have dinner and it's just magical. There is no boredom now. 0:31:48.280 --> 0:31:52.120 Kids do not get bored because TikTok or Facebook or 0:31:52.120 --> 0:31:56.260 Instagram or whatever it is. Texting is so compelling and 0:31:56.260 --> 0:32:00.700 arguably more compelling than manhole covers, and that's a problem. 0:32:00.700 --> 0:32:02.530 This is what I think a big problem is. I 0:32:02.530 --> 0:32:05.200 don't know why I'm fucking rambling about this shit, and 0:32:05.200 --> 0:32:08.350 I'm supposed to be supposed to be delivering this podcast. 0:32:08.410 --> 0:32:11.410 I'm just going to do whatever, um, when stimuli is 0:32:11.410 --> 0:32:15.550 too high, the dopamine level is too high, and anything 0:32:15.550 --> 0:32:18.670 that drops the dopamine level down, let's say that currently 0:32:18.670 --> 0:32:22.420 in 2024, things are so awesome in terms of stimuli 0:32:22.420 --> 0:32:26.800 and inputs. The dopamine levels are like an 85, let's 0:32:26.800 --> 0:32:30.730 say in the 1980s. As an average kid, they used 0:32:30.730 --> 0:32:32.890 to be like a 35, okay. And now they're an 0:32:32.890 --> 0:32:36.890 85 because of like all this tech. Okay, better games, 0:32:36.890 --> 0:32:43.310 better game consoles, better screens, better audio experiences, more video games. Okay, 0:32:43.340 --> 0:32:47.960 more access to porn. All the social media, TikTok. I mean, 0:32:47.960 --> 0:32:50.930 it's not even 85. It's like 285. And it used 0:32:50.930 --> 0:32:54.200 to be a 35. Okay, now try to take somebody 0:32:54.200 --> 0:32:56.990 like that and put him outside there like, are you 0:32:57.020 --> 0:32:59.840 kidding me? It's dirty out here. You want me to 0:32:59.870 --> 0:33:02.390 ride my bike? You want me to, like, what am 0:33:02.390 --> 0:33:05.989 I supposed to do out here? Nothing compares. Nothing in 0:33:06.020 --> 0:33:11.510 that world compares to TikTok. TikTok is crack. It's crack cocaine. 0:33:11.510 --> 0:33:15.500 And that's dangerous. Now what everyone seems to know and 0:33:15.500 --> 0:33:17.750 the experts seem to know. And I think you can 0:33:17.750 --> 0:33:20.390 learn this just by doing it, is you can actually 0:33:20.390 --> 0:33:24.860 reset your dopamine level very quickly. So what this person, 0:33:24.860 --> 0:33:28.880 I think did this parents decided to give her ten 0:33:28.910 --> 0:33:31.459 and five year old daughters a taste of the 1980s 0:33:31.490 --> 0:33:35.150 summer holiday where boredom was common and self entertainment was key. 0:33:35.180 --> 0:33:37.610 So what that means is you have to take the 0:33:37.610 --> 0:33:40.370 things away and throw them together and just be like, 0:33:40.400 --> 0:33:43.040 figure out something to do and they'll be like, oh, well, 0:33:43.040 --> 0:33:45.140 let's take this blanket and put it at an angle. 0:33:45.140 --> 0:33:47.570 And now we have a fort, right? And pretty soon 0:33:47.570 --> 0:33:51.260 you're making forts because you were bored. And that enjoyment 0:33:51.260 --> 0:33:54.500 of coming up with something from boredom and getting your 0:33:54.500 --> 0:33:59.270 dopamine level from a five to a 25 feels amazing. 0:33:59.270 --> 0:34:03.830 And it involves more creativity, more innovation. I think it's 0:34:03.830 --> 0:34:06.830 just healthier. It's just healthier. It's more natural, it's more healthy. 0:34:06.830 --> 0:34:09.470 And I don't think there's a problem with all the 0:34:09.469 --> 0:34:14.570 tech and hyper, you know, blasting with dopamine from a 0:34:14.570 --> 0:34:17.660 TikTok or whatever. But it's you got to regulate it. 0:34:17.660 --> 0:34:20.270 You got to regulate it and go back to this 0:34:20.270 --> 0:34:24.530 dopamine fasting and, you know, lower and slower anyway. All right. 0:34:24.560 --> 0:34:28.400 Few ideas I've had recently. The ultimate privilege, I think 0:34:28.400 --> 0:34:31.250 the ultimate privilege might be growing up in a stable 0:34:31.250 --> 0:34:35.010 household with two parents who give you a strong work ethic. 0:34:35.040 --> 0:34:37.200 It trips me out how simple this is and how 0:34:37.200 --> 0:34:39.960 the best advice is often like this. It's the exact 0:34:39.960 --> 0:34:43.830 same with diet, exercise, relationships, and a million other things. 0:34:43.860 --> 0:34:48.840 The best advice is concise, wise, and generally hard to do, 0:34:48.840 --> 0:34:52.020 but it is not a mystery. I think the US 0:34:52.020 --> 0:34:55.440 and the world should lock in on this one thing. 0:34:55.440 --> 0:34:59.430 Stable two parent households that imbue a strong work ethic 0:34:59.430 --> 0:35:03.360 and focus a lot of energy on getting to 100% 0:35:03.360 --> 0:35:06.480 on that metric. All right, next idea. The biggest market 0:35:06.480 --> 0:35:09.600 opening right now is for a product platform that validates 0:35:09.600 --> 0:35:13.890 the authenticity of content coming from a creator or publisher. Yeah, 0:35:13.890 --> 0:35:16.680 that's a tweet. I'm not going to do the whole thread. 0:35:16.710 --> 0:35:18.839 I used to think there was a big difference between 0:35:18.840 --> 0:35:21.479 somebody being weak and somebody being evil. I now treat 0:35:21.480 --> 0:35:24.360 them mostly the same because the outcomes they manifest are 0:35:24.360 --> 0:35:26.490 mostly the same. The only difference is that with a 0:35:26.489 --> 0:35:29.190 weak person, I could try to make them strong. Someone 0:35:29.190 --> 0:35:32.719 responded and said, don't you mean cowardice and not weakness? 0:35:32.750 --> 0:35:36.140 I'm kind of equivocating, those two. But I do see 0:35:36.140 --> 0:35:39.530 their point. I'm not talking about, like, little children. I'm 0:35:39.560 --> 0:35:42.380 talking about. I'm not talking about somebody who's supposed to 0:35:42.380 --> 0:35:47.089 be weak because they're disabled or they're super young. They're, 0:35:47.120 --> 0:35:49.640 you know, one and a half years old. Stop being weak. 0:35:49.670 --> 0:35:51.920 That's not the point. The point is somebody who is 0:35:51.920 --> 0:35:55.700 weak due to a flaw in character and who is 0:35:55.700 --> 0:36:00.439 causing damage to people around them and themselves as a result. 0:36:00.440 --> 0:36:04.970 And importantly, somebody, ideally, who could potentially fix themselves. That's 0:36:04.969 --> 0:36:08.000 what I'm talking about. All right. Discovery fabric plus raycast. 0:36:08.000 --> 0:36:11.060 So this guy Wil Chen did a YouTube video on 0:36:11.060 --> 0:36:14.810 how to integrate fabric into raycast. And guess what. I 0:36:14.840 --> 0:36:18.020 am now using raycast. Look at that activate trial. I 0:36:18.020 --> 0:36:22.250 need to do that. This is. Yeah, I switched back 0:36:22.250 --> 0:36:25.280 to spotlight because I like to use native tools rather 0:36:25.280 --> 0:36:27.620 than third party. I was on Alfred for years and 0:36:27.620 --> 0:36:30.469 years and years and years. Then I switched back to 0:36:30.510 --> 0:36:33.509 spotlight because there was some OS upgrade. I was like, oh, 0:36:33.540 --> 0:36:36.000 let's see how good spotlight is. I prefer to use 0:36:36.000 --> 0:36:38.820 the native tools anyway, unless there's a compelling reason to 0:36:38.820 --> 0:36:41.130 use a third party tool, which is why I'm on 0:36:41.130 --> 0:36:44.190 Safari instead of Chrome. Even though Chrome is way faster. 0:36:44.190 --> 0:36:49.140 I like the inbuilt stuff in Safari. Anyway, fabric integration 0:36:49.140 --> 0:36:52.739 into raycast. That is a big enough reason for me 0:36:52.739 --> 0:36:54.989 to switch back. So guess what? Now I'm about to 0:36:55.020 --> 0:36:59.100 become a raycast guru and look at this. I might 0:36:59.100 --> 0:37:01.860 integrate it more deeply by hosting a set of these 0:37:01.860 --> 0:37:05.310 scripts within fabric. So basically these are Python scripts that 0:37:05.310 --> 0:37:09.630 raycast reads and that's how raycast executes these things. So 0:37:09.630 --> 0:37:12.330 I'm thinking about putting a whole directory of these inside 0:37:12.330 --> 0:37:14.489 of fabric. So you could just point raycast to that 0:37:14.489 --> 0:37:17.280 directory and boom you're ready to go. And so the 0:37:17.280 --> 0:37:19.440 way he described this you know what. Frick it. Just 0:37:19.440 --> 0:37:20.550 open it. Watch this. 0:37:20.550 --> 0:37:22.470 Uh, okay. So, um. 0:37:22.500 --> 0:37:23.609 I don't know if you can hear that, but. 0:37:23.610 --> 0:37:27.090 So watch this. I, uh, look at this, like going back. 0:37:27.120 --> 0:37:31.360 Going back through these, uh, to these various patterns and fabric. Um, 0:37:31.390 --> 0:37:33.819 like if you're if you're like if you have some 0:37:33.850 --> 0:37:36.370 text in your selection, like if you, if you have 0:37:36.400 --> 0:37:38.230 something you want to select or you want to quick 0:37:38.230 --> 0:37:40.299 Paul Graham essay, I can just go ahead and just 0:37:40.300 --> 0:37:43.570 type in extract wisdom. Right. And let's say I can 0:37:43.570 --> 0:37:44.560 grab this one. 0:37:44.560 --> 0:37:45.550 So he copied. 0:37:45.580 --> 0:37:47.170 Or I can I can grab the whole thing. Grabs 0:37:47.170 --> 0:37:49.989 the whole wisdom right. Extract wisdom. And then just type. 0:37:49.989 --> 0:37:51.490 X and then paste it and. 0:37:51.489 --> 0:37:52.239 It will run. And look at. 0:37:52.239 --> 0:37:53.140 This. Here comes fabric. 0:37:53.200 --> 0:37:56.560 That fabric prompt I use it to run it with 0:37:56.680 --> 0:38:00.070 Claude Sonnet 3.5. And it's insane. 0:38:00.190 --> 0:38:04.120 So yeah, I'm about to rig everything up in that way. 0:38:04.150 --> 0:38:07.120 Eric Schmidt of Google did a crazy, honest interview at Stanford, 0:38:07.120 --> 0:38:09.310 and it was so spicy that Stanford took it down. 0:38:09.310 --> 0:38:11.710 But guess what? I got the link to the video, 0:38:11.710 --> 0:38:14.049 and I pulled out the transcript and I made a 0:38:14.050 --> 0:38:17.109 fabric summary of it. So there you go. Ideal founding 0:38:17.140 --> 0:38:20.110 team Ben Horowitz lays out the perfect founding team in 0:38:20.110 --> 0:38:23.049 the clearest way I've ever seen. It's just it's really good. 0:38:23.050 --> 0:38:27.279 Scrape it now. New CLI tool for web scraping grok two. 0:38:27.310 --> 0:38:29.549 This is the one that just does all sorts of 0:38:29.580 --> 0:38:33.690 crazy stuff. Prompt caching with Claude Flux AI by Black 0:38:33.690 --> 0:38:36.390 Forest Labs. This one getting a lot of talk. I 0:38:36.390 --> 0:38:38.609 haven't used it yet because I'm not doing a lot 0:38:38.610 --> 0:38:41.550 of AI image stuff. When I need an AI image, 0:38:41.550 --> 0:38:44.939 I usually use Midjourney. Still graphic info. New website lets 0:38:44.940 --> 0:38:48.690 you generate infographics to make your articles more engaging. Agile 0:38:48.719 --> 0:38:51.360 is for losers, a rant about the author's decade long 0:38:51.390 --> 0:38:55.860 frustrations with the agile methodology infiltrating digital agencies, and the 0:38:55.860 --> 0:38:59.759 recommendation of the week. Stop accepting it when your loved ones, 0:38:59.760 --> 0:39:02.940 especially the young people, are not AI literate. Here's the 0:39:02.940 --> 0:39:04.980 way I recommend you think about this. Imagine that the 0:39:04.980 --> 0:39:08.460 competition level for getting top jobs or mates or whatever 0:39:08.460 --> 0:39:12.690 was 100. In 2022, the average person was at like 0:39:12.719 --> 0:39:17.480 an 80. Okay. AI is augmentation technology. It adds 20 0:39:17.480 --> 0:39:20.040 to 50 points to people who get good at it. 0:39:20.040 --> 0:39:23.100 So now the person with an 85 learns AI and 0:39:23.100 --> 0:39:26.850 they're like a 125. So the new standard is reset 0:39:26.850 --> 0:39:30.340 from 80 to 120. So if you were a 90 0:39:30.370 --> 0:39:33.910 before or a 110, you are now behind. Don't let 0:39:33.910 --> 0:39:38.110 your people get left behind. I is the new reading. 0:39:38.110 --> 0:39:40.990 It's the new high school diploma. It's the new degree. 0:39:40.989 --> 0:39:44.709 Make sure your people, the people that you love, have it. 0:39:44.710 --> 0:39:47.350 And just to show you how real this thing is. Okay, 0:39:47.380 --> 0:39:50.200 this is the best. This is the absolute best. And 0:39:50.200 --> 0:39:53.620 to get you motivated, here is an 18. No an 0:39:53.650 --> 0:39:57.370 eight year old. Here's an eight year old doing live coding. 0:39:57.370 --> 0:40:01.780 Watch this thing every one. And today I'm well I'm. 0:40:01.780 --> 0:40:09.460 Yeah I'm going to show you how to code with cursor. 0:40:09.489 --> 0:40:12.850 I'm gonna go to terminal and I'm going to say 0:40:12.880 --> 0:40:15.730 new terminal and new terminal. 0:40:15.760 --> 0:40:16.030 Look at. 0:40:16.030 --> 0:40:16.330 This. 0:40:16.810 --> 0:40:18.070 She's she's running. 0:40:18.250 --> 0:40:22.120 Pom pom run npm. 0:40:22.120 --> 0:40:22.780 Run dev. 0:40:22.810 --> 0:40:26.770 There I have that. And then I go to be 0:40:26.800 --> 0:40:30.450 and look, I made it. Say hello. I want this 0:40:30.450 --> 0:40:33.720 to say. Say hey. 0:40:33.750 --> 0:40:34.649 Okay, so we're gonna. 0:40:34.950 --> 0:40:35.279 We're gonna. 0:40:35.310 --> 0:40:36.720 Jump ahead here. 0:40:38.040 --> 0:40:42.600 So, um, I wanted to say chat with Harry and 0:40:43.200 --> 0:40:46.620 and then recent cloudfare workers AI. And then it will 0:40:46.620 --> 0:40:50.820 do all of the stuff. So you can't do it 0:40:50.820 --> 0:40:54.390 if it's not finished, because then it just won't work. 0:40:54.480 --> 0:41:01.200 So now I'm gonna save it. So now I'm going 0:41:01.230 --> 0:41:06.240 to say hi. Wicked. Hi there. I'm Harry James Potter. 0:41:08.580 --> 0:41:09.690 Oh my goodness. 0:41:09.690 --> 0:41:12.930 She just built a chat bot to talk to Harry Potter. 0:41:13.290 --> 0:41:14.100 She's eight years. 0:41:14.100 --> 0:41:15.299 Old, right? 0:41:15.330 --> 0:41:18.240 Okay, I'm telling you, that is an eight year old 0:41:18.239 --> 0:41:21.509 who just built a chat bot to talk to Harry Potter. Okay. 0:41:21.540 --> 0:41:24.060 And you and I have a lot of loved ones 0:41:24.060 --> 0:41:26.680 who were like, oh, ChatGPT. Is that still a thing? 0:41:26.710 --> 0:41:29.680 How is that still a thing? I thought that blew out, like, 0:41:29.710 --> 0:41:32.620 a year ago. I thought it got really important when 0:41:32.620 --> 0:41:35.169 people start. Stopped talking about it, and now I don't 0:41:35.170 --> 0:41:38.740 care anymore. This is what you're competing with. Eight year olds, 0:41:38.739 --> 0:41:41.410 building chat bots to talk to Harry Potter. All right. 0:41:41.410 --> 0:41:44.410 And the aphorism of the week standing still in evolution 0:41:44.410 --> 0:41:48.610 is equivalent to moving backwards. Standing still in evolution is 0:41:48.610 --> 0:41:54.580 equivalent to moving backwards Matt Ridley. Unsupervised learning is produced 0:41:54.580 --> 0:41:57.609 and edited by Daniel Miessler on a Neumann U87 AI 0:41:57.610 --> 0:42:01.870 microphone using Hindenburg. Intro and outro music is by zombie 0:42:01.870 --> 0:42:04.870 with a Y. And to get the text and links 0:42:04.870 --> 0:42:07.120 from this episode, sign up for the newsletter version of 0:42:07.120 --> 0:42:12.730 the show at Daniel missler.com/newsletter. We'll see you next time.